All of Ukraine went under an air raid warning earlier today because of one MiG-31K.
Air raid over – MiG-31K has landed again or was judged no to have been a threat.
Hardly time to get to a shelter before it's over.
— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) March 11, 2024
The good news is that it did not appear to launch anything at Ukraine. The bad news is that this is all it takes for Russia to put Ukraine under air raid alert.
Our mission is to protect Ukraine from russian air attacks.
The Ukrainian Navy shot down a russian Shahed kamikaze drone in the Odesa region.📹: Ukrainian Naval Forces pic.twitter.com/g2VruD2FS9
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 11, 2024
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
There should be no place of rest for the occupier – address by the President of Ukraine
11 March 2024 – 20:56
Dear Ukrainians!
Today, most of the day was devoted to military and war issues. First, the meeting of the Staff. Detailed reports on each direction of our frontline: from Kupyansk to Kherson region. The Commander-in-Chief, the Chief of the General Staff, the commanders of the directions, the Ministry of Defense.
The troops are now stabilizing our positions at the front. And they are doing so despite the fact that supplies from our partners remain significantly limited. I am grateful to every soldier and commander – to all our warriors who ensure our defense and our frontline operations with their strength and resilience. And I am grateful to every enterprise here in Ukraine and to all joint ventures with partners for the continuous increase in our own supplies, for the much-needed weapons for our independence: drones, shells, artillery, and vehicles.
There was also a report on the construction of fortifications. More than 2,000 kilometers of tasks, shoring up the existing fortifications and creating new ones – at least three lines of our strength. They are designed to meet the threats. All the necessary resources have been deployed. The government, regional leaders and the military are personally responsible for the result. The result should speak for itself, with its reliability for every soldier.
Today, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi and Defense Minister Umerov made a separate report. They spoke about the current situation at the front and about planning our actions. There should be no place of rest for the occupier. Today we also discussed preparations for the next Ramstein meeting and the key points of our communication with partners regarding weapons and ammunition.
Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Budanov also delivered a separate report. Several issues were raised. First of all, Russia’s military plans. Not only against our country, but also against other nations. The common task of the world now is to thwart this sick Putin’s fantasy that he allegedly has time to continue the war. Perhaps he will intensify mobilization after the imitation of “elections” now in March. Mobilization of Russians. However, we must further limit the mobilization of resources and finances, tightening the remnants of Russia’s ties with the world even more severely. And everyone who values the lives of their people must do this – every leader. I am grateful to everyone who helps.
Today I held several meetings with government officials, the financial and economic block of our government and the National Bank, to discuss the state of our financial system. We ensure the stability and reliable operation of financial institutions. We also discussed this year’s budget work. I am grateful to all entrepreneurs who work, pay taxes and preserve jobs.
This is the period of our maximum concentration, our maximum initiative to ensure that it is Ukraine that determines a just end to this war. We can endure. We have to win.
Glory to all who fight and work for the sake of Ukraine and Ukrainians! Glory to everyone in the world who upholds justice!
Glory to Ukraine!
20 Days in Mariupol has won an Oscar 2024 in the Documentary Feature Film category.
The documentary directed by Mstyslav Chernov describes the terrible events in the city: the deaths of children and adults, the mass graves, the maternity ward destroyed by a russian airstrike,… pic.twitter.com/vOALXVQzDb
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 11, 2024
20 Days in Mariupol has won an Oscar 2024 in the Documentary Feature Film category.
The documentary directed by Mstyslav Chernov describes the terrible events in the city: the deaths of children and adults, the mass graves, the maternity ward destroyed by a russian airstrike, and other russian war crimes.
The world has to know the truth about russia’s war crimes.
Democracies have to provide Ukraine with military aid to defeat russian aggression.
It is a great honor for us to represent Ukraine at the Oscars ceremony. This statuette, this victory is for Ukrainians, for the people of Mariupol. I’m thankful to everyone who defends our country and fights for our freedom. pic.twitter.com/xgPghNCJfn
— Мstyslav Chernov (@mstyslavchernov) March 11, 2024
The City of Mary by the Sea.
We remember you as you were living your best life that hot and bright summer of ‘21.
Clean streets, wonderful coffee shops and new restaurants, the gentle roar of the sea, boys and girls playing volleyball on the beach, the magnificent contours of… pic.twitter.com/RtXqe8aNqZ
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 11, 2024
The City of Mary by the Sea.
We remember you as you were living your best life that hot and bright summer of ‘21.
Clean streets, wonderful coffee shops and new restaurants, the gentle roar of the sea, boys and girls playing volleyball on the beach, the magnificent contours of gigantic steel factories.
The last summer before the Russian plague came — and turned a vibrant city, the fastest developing one in Ukraine, into a giant mass grave amid ruins.
Why, whatever for, how could they have so much hatred, savagery, and bloodthirstiness on their mind to do THAT.
I’m afraid the holocaust of Mariupol was in 2022 was so horrific that we, even two years on, do not fully realize what had happened to the City of Mary by the Sea.
Guys behind @20DaysMariupol did the greatest piece of journalism amid this war, and one of the greatest journalistic works of all time.
I just hope the world will finally make conclusions from what it saw as the Oscar’s best documentary 2023.
Otherwise, we fail as a species again.
Senate Select Committee on Intelligence held its annual hearing with the Directors of National Intelligence, Central Intelligence, and the FBI today.
🧵DNI Avril Haines: Putin strategic goals remain unchanged. He continues to see NATO enlargement and Western support to Ukraine as reinforcing his long held belief that the United States and Europe seek to restrict Russian power and undermine him.
— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) March 11, 2024
🇺🇸🙏 Without additional support, in 2024 you will see "even more Avdiivka" in Ukraine, — CIA chief William Burns pic.twitter.com/rLrAs89nwE
— MAKS 23 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) March 11, 2024
Burns: The truth is that the Ukrainians are not running out of courage and tenacity. They’re running out of ammunition. And we’re running out of time to help them.
— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) March 11, 2024
Burns on Putin: “It’s our assessment that Russia is not serious about negotiations today, in the sense that they may be interested in the theater of negotiations, but they're not really interested in negotiating, in the sense of compromise right now.“
— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) March 11, 2024
“the Russian leadership…in other words, to puncture his confidence that time is on his side, to demonstrate that for Russia also, there are long term consequences to this war, They’ve already suffered enormously in terms of their military 315,000+ dead and wounded.
— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) March 11, 2024
Here’s the link to the Annual Threat Assessment.
"We also cannot continue putting the ball on our supplemental funding request in support of Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression," says @DepSecDef. "We need Congress to come together. The world is watching what we do in this moment."
— Lara Seligman (@laraseligman) March 11, 2024
From Politico: (emphasis mine)
The Pentagon has sent $10 billion worth of weapons to Ukraine that it still does not have the money to replace due to congressional gridlock, according to a top Defense Department official.
DOD officials expect funding to replenish the equipment the U.S. has already sent to Ukraine to be included in President Joe Biden’s supplemental request, which provides billions of additional dollars in aid for Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel. But that legislation has languished on Capitol Hill for months amid partisan bickering.
If DOD does not get the funding to backfill its stocks, the impact of that “ongoing hole” will ultimately be felt by the U.S. military’s own forces, said a senior DOD official, who was granted anonymity to speak ahead of an announcement.
“We have not been able to, with the funding we have to date — and there’s a big funding piece waiting in the supplemental — replenish everything we’ve already given to Ukraine,” the official told reporters. “So it would come back on our own readiness on our own stockpile to a certain extent if we can’t get new funding.”
DOD announced in December that it would be unable to send new weapons to Kyiv until Congress approves Biden’s supplemental request. But this is the first time officials have acknowledged that the U.S. is already in a $10 billion hole when it comes to backfilling its stocks.
The deficit stems from the difference in the value of the equipment sent to Ukraine compared to the cost to replace it: For example, if the Army sends older munitions that are no longer being produced, it might replace them with a newer version that is more expensive.
The comments come as the Pentagon on Monday unveiled its budget request for fiscal 2025, though lawmakers have yet to pass an appropriations bill for fiscal 2024. The Pentagon is operating under a stopgap measure, called a continuing resolution, that freezes spending at last year’s levels and prevents officials from starting new programs.
U.S. officials are growing concerned that Ukraine is running out of critical weapons, including ammunition and air defenses, as lawmakers stall on the aid package. But there are worries, too, about shortfalls in U.S. weapons if officials are not able to replenish DOD’s stocks.
The $10 billion covers only the cost to replace munitions and other weapons the U.S. has already sent Ukraine. It does not include the increase of U.S. forces to Europe since Russia invaded Ukraine to help defend allies in Eastern Europe as well as train the Ukrainians, which is an expense the Army is paying, the official said.
But officials view Ukraine as the more urgent problem. DOD has been unable to send Kyiv additional weapons since December, when appropriations to backfill its stocks ran out. The department still has $4.4 billion in authority to send aid to Ukraine, but Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has been “reluctant” to tap into that fund without money to replace the weapons in the U.S., the official said.
DOD is unable to legally transfer money from other accounts to replenish the weapons it sends to Ukraine, the official stressed.
As another option, DOD officials have discussed using $200 million in savings that the Army negotiated in prior contracts for weapons for Ukraine to send additional aid, the official said. However, that is not an alternative to the $66 billion supplemental, the official said. Bloomberg first reported this option.
“We are still, in the big scheme of things, pretty close to broke,” the official said.
The senior official urged lawmakers to pass the legislation, saying the failure to do so will cost Ukraine dearly.
“They are low on ammunition today. They are fighting and dying today. If we can’t help them, there isn’t another industrial base on the planet that can really take our place,” the official said.
Given the House GOP majority’s unwillingness and inability to pass regular appropriations, let alone the Ukraine supplemental, these developments in Brussels are welcome.
Brussels proposal to fast track up to €3bn for Ukraine from frozen Russian assets set to be put to member states in the coming days, could see money spent on arms for Kyiv as soon as this summer https://t.co/rCY1rBkJyF via @ft w @lauramdubois & @paolatamma
— Henry Foy (@HenryJFoy) March 11, 2024
From The Financial Times:
Brussels is pushing to give Ukraine €2bn-€3bn this year from profits derived from Russia’s frozen assets, accelerating the funding plan as US financial support to Kyiv wanes.
The European Commission is preparing a plan, according to officials, that would involve seizing sanctions-related profits, dating from February onwards, earned at the central securities depository Euroclear.
After months of wrangling, a first tranche of money could be disbursed as early as July if Brussels can secure approval of member states, officials said. The proposal is expected before a summit of EU leaders next week.
Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has called for the funds to be used for military support, rather than postwar reconstruction as had been originally envisaged — a contentious approach for some capitals.
About €190bn in Russian sovereign assets have been immobilised at Euroclear since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, generating €3.85bn in profits.
The latest plans would provide between €2bn and €3bn to Ukraine this year, depending on interest rates, the officials said. The total profits siphoned from Euroclear could reach €20bn by 2027, according to EU officials.
The hotly debated question of whether to use Russian funds tied up in Brussels-based Euroclear to aid Ukraine has become more pressing as the war has entered its third year and international aid has dwindled.
The depository holds the bulk of the €260bn in Russian central bank assets frozen by western sanctions.
With G7 countries split over whether to seize the underlying assets and hand them over to Ukraine, the EU proposed a parallel track of using only the profits.
The EU initially planned to use some of the Euroclear funds for Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction, but with further US military aid blocked by Republicans in Congress, the focus has moved to military support.
Von der Leyen last month floated the idea of using the profits to buy weapons for Ukrainian forces, but this suggestion is likely to face opposition from member states, including Viktor Orbán’s Hungary.
According to the Kyiv finance ministry, only about half of the $37bn needed from international partners this year has been committed by the EU and the IMF. Officials in Ukraine have reached out to other partners and are hoping the profits on frozen assets could help fill that gap.
The EU could use the profits to buy weapons for Ukraine through an existing fund for which member states are currently negotiating a €5bn top-up, or to invest in the Ukrainian defence industry.
According to a draft of the commission’s internal proposal seen by the Financial Times, Brussels could appropriate 97 per cent of the net profits derived from frozen Russian assets held by Euroclear, and transfer them to the EU budget.
The money would then be paid out every quarter or twice a year and “could be used to the benefit of Ukraine according to different arrangements”, the draft says.
More at the link.
Now we have to wait to see if the EU actually does it and what it means if it does do so. One of the major issues is that neither the US, nor the EU member states defense manufacturing base are currently able to produce enough weapons systems, ammunition, and other defense material to meet Ukraine’s needs. Having more money to buy weapons, weapons systems, and ammunition is a great thing. But only if there is stuff one can buy with it. Also, Euroclear is a major financial system player. It is unclear what doing this would do to global markets. As in whether it would destabilize them.
As are these in the Czech Republic:
Czech President Petr Pavel made the impossible possible and not only organized 800,000 artillery shells for Ukraine but also the financing. Around €1.5 billion have been organized and the ammunition will arrive the coming weeks.
The source of the ammunition is not entirely… pic.twitter.com/hRTQAkqbcM
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) March 11, 2024
Czech President Petr Pavel made the impossible possible and not only organized 800,000 artillery shells for Ukraine but also the financing. Around €1.5 billion have been organized and the ammunition will arrive the coming weeks.
The source of the ammunition is not entirely disclosed but according to to Bild speculations go that it might be South Korea, Turkey and South Africa. I would like to add that I find it possible that Pakistan is also one of the suppliers.
This extraordinary feat shows once again that if there is a will then there is a way.
Source: Bild
Left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:
/2. Ship location. (46.5064328, 32.1549024) pic.twitter.com/Qom9RZ4nZH
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 11, 2024
/4. On satellite images, an object was occasionally seen (on 3/8 of March) near the ship/command post. Probably those are the boats during the resupply mission. https://t.co/ImuSUHc1cQ pic.twitter.com/IbZzFQtvX1
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 12, 2024
Rumours that the infamous rus blogger "13th" was on board. If so, he'd left behind 200k+ followers on telegram. https://t.co/JXJ5ZwGLmg
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 11, 2024
"13th" turned out to be alive for now, as I presumed. Rather silly from a guy who was cursing Putin in June 2023 and fully supported the late Pringles in his march on Moscow.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 11, 2024
More about the drone strikes at Taganrog, Russia:
"Ukrainian officials…told the FT that an attack by Ukraine at the weekend had critically damaged two Russian A-50 long-range radar detection planes at an aircraft repair facility in the southern port city of Taganrog."@ChristopherJM @maxseddon https://t.co/iIngkUrVY2 https://t.co/OaBv12BKN2 pic.twitter.com/lAJZBJSkyz
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 11, 2024
It appears the Ukrainians did damage more Russian A-50s.
The Financial Times has the details:
Ukrainian officials who confirmed the change in Russia’s navy leadership also told the FT that an attack by Ukraine at the weekend had critically damaged two Russian A-50 long-range radar detection planes at an aircraft repair facility in the southern port city of Taganrog.
In addition to attacks on the Russian navy, Ukrainian officials said that Kyiv’s forces on Saturday had successfully used domestically produced drones to critically damage the two Russian A-50s.
Satellite images appeared to support their assessment. They showed blast marks in the area where one of the long-range radar detection aircraft had been parked on the tarmac at the time of the attack and on the rooftop of the hangar where the other plane is believed to have been located.
A representative for Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate said on Monday that the agency was still working to clarify the extent of the damage to the planes and declined to provide further information. Ukraine’s air force declined to comment.
Serhiy Prytula, a Ukrainian public figure with connections to the military whose charity has hugely contributed to Kyiv’s wartime fundraising and production of its drone programme, boasted to his donors on X that their efforts had contributed to the success of the attack on the Taganrog facility.
Russia’s defence ministry claimed on Saturday that it had shot down 41 drones in the area but did not comment on reports the facility had been hit. One emergency services worker was taken to hospital, according to local officials.
Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s chief of military intelligence, told the FT in January that Russia had eight operational A-50 long-range radar detection planes prior to one being shot down by Kyiv’s forces over the Sea of Azov at the time. The three attacks since then means that Ukraine has now destroyed or badly damaged half of Russia’s A-50s in under two months.
The destruction of just one A-50, Budanov said in January, would probably affect Russia’s ability to operate and communicate in the war zone “around the clock”. The destruction of three more could have a huge impact on its reconnaissance and communications abilities, officials said.
After the second loss of an A-50, British defence intelligence said that Russia had “highly likely grounded the fleet from flying in support of Ukraine operations”.
Russia’s defence ministry has not commented on the loss of the first two planes, which pro-war bloggers ascribed to “friendly fire”.
Kursk, Russia:
Kursk, Russia, Special Military Operation zone, is under some sort of UAV attack pic.twitter.com/cELIHynrpd
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 11, 2024
Oryol, Russia:
/1. Russian oil depot in Oryol, hit by kamikaze drones. 165km from the Ukraine border.
(52.9614580, 36.1103500) pic.twitter.com/4cG6Jnb6J1— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 12, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
I’m so sorry we won this Oscar. But I’m so thankful to the team of @mstyslavchernov that showed the story of Mariupol’s victims https://t.co/EyxFZTm767
— Patron (@PatronDsns) March 11, 2024
Open thread!
Nukular Biskits
Did a quick run through, Adam.
As always, appreciate the effort, analysis and insight.
Adam L Silverman
@Nukular Biskits: You’re welcome.
Gin & Tonic
As I said in last night’s Oscars thread, I am glad the Mariupol film won, but I don’t think I’ll be able to watch it. That said, I take a certain perverse pleasure in seeing/hearing non-Slavs trying to pronounce Mstyslav.
YY_Sima Qian
Still curious where Czechia has found the 800K 155 mm howitzer rounds outside of the West, as in who were the original producers & who are the current owners.
dimmsdale
My deep thanks as always for your posts, which are indispensable to me. I deeply wish they weren’t necessary. I’d very much like to hear from you about other more internal natsec issues (status of domestic stochastic terrorism and the like), but I feel immensely fortunate to get your perspective on Ukraine, and the other stuff, hopefully, can wait. Thanks again.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Carlo Graziani
It is interesting to read the confidence with which Ukrainian intelligence issues battle damage assessments for its drone attacks inside Russia. If that confidence is well-founded, it means that they have extensive and well-maintained agent networks inside Russia providing them with near-real time information from inside Russian military “secure” areas.
That would be astounding in two respects: One is the effectiveness of Ukrainian Military Intelligence, despite its willingness to make the Russians aware of its success.. The other is how far Russian counterintelligence has fallen from the near-impenetrability against foreign intelligence collection that it once afforded the Soviet Union.
wjca
Thanks, Adam. Always.
Alison Rose
Thank you as always, Adam.
Prescott Cactus
Thanks Adam !
daveNYC
@Carlo Graziani: Smartphones. Makes it real easy for agents to get info out, and even easier for local randos to post selfies standing next to a burning A-50 airframe.
dr. luba
@Carlo Graziani:
“The Russian census identified that there were more than 5,864,000 Ukrainians living in Russia in 2015, representing over 4.01% of the total population of the Russian Federation and comprising the eighth-largest ethnic group. On 2022 February there were roughly 2.8 million Ukrainians who fled to Russia.”
Many fled to russia because it was the only safe direction to flee, both in 2014 and 2022.
And most Ukrainians are bilingual; most russian are not. It is fairly easy for a Ukrainian to get around in russia; russians stick out in Ukraine. Паляниця!
dr. luba
Thanks again, Adam, for you daily posts. I don’t always comment because I often can’t get to them until the following day.
I should add that all the Ukrainian catholics I know are really pissed off at the pope (and not for the first time wrt russia). As one noted, “a friend in Ukraine said that will sooner see white smoke rising from the Vatican than we will the Ukrainian waving a white flag.” A few have even spoken about church reunification within Ukraine, or switching to the orthodox church.