Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

I desperately hope that, yet again, I am wrong.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the gop

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

The fundamental promise of conservatism all over the world is a return to an idealized past that never existed.

I’m sure you banged some questionable people yourself. We’re allowed to grow past that.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

Republicans can’t even be trusted with their own money.

“The defense has a certain level of trust in defendant that the government does not.”

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

You’re just a puppy masquerading as an old coot.

Come on, man.

Another missed opportunity for Jamie Dimon to just shut the fuck up.

Donald Trump, welcome to your everything, everywhere, all at once.

I conferred with the team and they all agree – still not tired of winning!

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

It is possible to do the right thing without the promise of a cookie.

The worst democrat is better than the best republican.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

If you’re pissed about Biden’s speech, he was talking about you.

…and a burning sense of injustice to juice the soul.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 767: Russia Bombarded Ukraine Again Overnight

War for Ukraine Day 767: Russia Bombarded Ukraine Again Overnight

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Screen shot of new artwork by NEIVANMADE. The background is black. In the bottom foreground are grey Ukrainian homes and apartment buildings being bombarded by red Russian missiles with the Special Military Operation "Z" symbol on them. Above the missiles, written in red is the word "Ruzzians". Below the buildings being attacked is the statement "Turns Homes Into Graves".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Just a quick housekeeping note to start. While Ukraine is in the process of moving itself onto the western calendar, including for Christian religious holidays, they have not yet done so for Easter. Eater will be celebrated in Ukraine on 5 May this year.

Before we get fully started, I want to address the question as to why Avdiivka was important for the Russians. I’ve answered this at least once before, but since the question has arisen again, I’m going to go over it again. Russia, right or wrong, believes that Avdiivka is a key location that they have to take in order to fully occupy Donetsk Oblast and the entire Donbas. Reuters has a really good summary of the Russian strategic logic:

Both sides regard Avdiivka as key to Russia’s aim of securing full control of the two eastern “Donbas” provinces – Donetsk and Luhansk. These are among the four Ukrainian regions Russia says it has annexed but does not have full control of.

Avdiivka is seen as a gateway to Donetsk city, whose residential areas Russian officials say have been shelled by Ukrainian forces, sometimes from Avdiivka.

Seizing it could boost Russian morale and demoralise Ukrainian forces, which have made only incremental gains in a broad counteroffensive since June. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy himself visited in December.

“If the Russian army takes control of the (supply) road, the Ukrainian armed forces will evidently be forced to withdraw from Avdeyevka. That will be a great victory for the Russian army,” Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, said on Feb. 5.

Mykola Bielieskov of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, an official think-tank in Kyiv, said taking Avdiivka would not decisively tip the situation in Moscow’s favour but “would make the situation more tenable for occupied Donetsk as a major Russian logistics hub”.

Bielieskov believes the battle is driven by a Kremlin desire to strengthen the hand of Western sceptics calling for a cut in support for Kyiv, citing the limited impact of billions of dollars in military aid.

I know that this makes no sense to some of you and I understand why. But regardless of whether it does or does not make sense to you, it apparently makes sense to Putin and people.

Russia targeted Ukrainian civilian targets, including more energy infrastructure, in another overnight bombardment. This time they went after the second largest natural gas storage in Europe.

Poland once again scrambled their fighters and put a combat air patrol up:

There were other air raid alerts throughout today. As I type this, at 7;00 PM EDT, other than the air raid alerts for Russian occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea the airspace over Ukraine is clear. But, as the Ukrainians have learned the hard way, that can change with a moment’s notice.

Remember, Putin has several objectives with these bombardments. The first is to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense and force the Ukrainians to deplete their stocks of air defense munitions because the US has stopped resupplying Ukraine thanks to the dysfunction of the House majority GOP. The second is to capitalize on the stretched too thin Ukrainian air defense in order to stress and terrorize the Ukrainians to the point where morale collapses and socio-cultural cohesion and resilience crack and crumble. The third is to destroy as much of Ukraine’s energy generation and transmission infrastructure and capacity as possible. The fourth is to do the same to the Ukrainian agricultural sector.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Today, we honor the strength of everyone who has withstood, who is fighting and working, and will surely bring freedom to our entire land – address by the President of Ukraine

31 March 2024 – 18:06

Dear Ukrainians!

Two years have already passed since our warriors, all our people, drove the Russian occupiers out of Kyiv region. Borodyanka, Bucha, Irpin, Hostomel, Moshchun were places of battle, places where Ukrainians fought for their country, for their lives, for their homes free from evil. Today, we honor the strength of everyone who withstood then, who is fighting now, who is working and who will definitely bring freedom to our entire land, to every city and village of Ukraine that Russia wants to appropriate, but which it will have to give back to Ukrainians. Our people, our spirit, our strength will ensure this. Ukrainians build, not destroy. They save lives, and do not pry into the lives of others insatiably, as Moscow does.

Ukraine will definitely win. The key is not to lose faith in ourselves, in our people, and not to waste a single day when we can contribute to Ukraine’s results. That is why Ukraine has risen and will dispel the darkness of captivity. I thank everyone who helps! I thank everyone who is with Ukraine and in Ukraine! I am grateful to our warriors, and for this week’s battles I would like to especially mention the 95th brigade, the 79th air assault brigade, the 44th and 55th separate artillery brigades… Thank you, warriors! I am proud of our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

France:

France’s defense minister, Sébastien Lecornu, said France would deliver “hundreds” of armored personnel carriers as part a new aid package to Ukraine in its war against Russian invaders. The vehicles are decommissioned but still operating.

France will also supply more Aster 30 anti-aircraft missiles for SAMP/T launchers.

Source: Kyiv Post

The US:

These perceptions of American weaknesses, as well as concerns regarding Trump being reelected are starting to have significant effects.

Here’s the summary of the study from RUSI:

This paper examines the possibility of Donald Trump’s potentially radical programme of change, both at home and abroad, with a focus on the US foreign policy programme. It outlines the economic factors underpinning US defence and security and explores the question of alliances, especially in relation to Ukraine. The paper concludes with an overview of the impact of a second Trump presidency on UK and European defence priorities.

If Donald Trump were to be re-elected this year, a rapid reduction in US aid to Ukraine seems probable. European allies could also face the prospect that the US’s commitment to NATO might be ended, or at least substantially reduced.

Even if a Democrat is returned to the White House, they will face the reality of a US defence budget that is both fiscally constrained and increasingly stretched geographically.

The Ukraine war has already led to European rearmament on an often- underappreciated scale. European defence spending has increased by 60% since the 2014 invasion and is set to increase further in the years ahead. The most remarkable increase is in Germany, whose commitment to spending 2% of its GDP on defence could, if sustained over the coming years, make it Europe’s most formidable conventional power. These new defence investments across Europe, combined with the destruction of a large part of Russia’s capability in battle, offers an opportunity for Europe to take on a larger share of the burden of its own defence.

If the US were to substantially reduce its military contribution to NATO, debate would intensify on reforming the institutional architecture of European defence. But the immediate priority would be to steady the ship, ensuring that the major European powers, working closely with NATO and the EU, take a united stance against any Russian attempt to take advantage of US withdrawal.

For the next decade at least, there will be strong pressure on the UK to prioritise those capabilities that are most important in providing for European defence, especially those which fill any gaps left by a possible American withdrawal. Although UK defence spending has grown more slowly than that of other European countries, the re-emergence of an acute threat from Russia has driven a commitment to a major recapitalisation of the UK’s nuclear capability.

And here’s the link to the full study.

The one part of that summary I disagree with is this:

If Donald Trump were to be re-elected this year, a rapid reduction in US aid to Ukraine seems probable.

You can’t rapidly reduce US aid to Ukraine given that the US is no longer providing aid to Ukraine because Trump demanded that House and Senate Republicans block any and all further aid to Ukraine. There’s a longer discussion in regard to the fact that Trump is out of office yet is significantly affecting US foreign policy. Both through his control of Republican representatives and senators and because he’s running his own shadow foreign policy through Internet troll Ric Grennell, who will be the Secretary of State if Trump manages to get elected in November.

Grenell’s intervention highlights the extraordinary role he has carved out in the three years since Trump left the White House. From Central America to Eastern Europe and beyond, Grenell has been acting as a kind of shadow secretary of state, meeting with far-right leaders and movements, pledging Trump’s support and, at times, working against the current administration’s policies.

It’s unusual for a former diplomatic official to continue meeting with foreign leaders and promoting the agenda of a presidential candidate on the world stage. Grenell’s globe-trotting has sparked deep concern among career national security officials and diplomats, who warn that he emboldens bad actors and jeopardizes U.S. interests in service of Trump’s personal agenda. In the process, Grenell is openly charting a foreign policy road map for a Republican presidential nominee who has found common cause with authoritarian leaders and threatened to blow up partnerships with democratic allies.

For those of you on BlueSky, I did two threads on this problem two weeks ago. The first is here and the second is here.

The Ukrainians liberated Bucha two years ago today. Followed shortly after by the other cities and towns in the north of Kyiv Oblast.

Two years ago, the entire world saw the real sense of our fight. Including those for whom, unfortunately, it was ‘just one more war’. They have seen what this war really is. And that Ukraine defends not only its state borders and sovereignty, but everything that makes people human.

 

Unhealing wounds of Russia’s massacre in Ukraine’s Bucha, two years on.

This is the city cemetery section established over the last two years. 95% of the graves are dated March 2022 – the time of Russian occupation.

Hundreds of graves. Men, women, teenagers. Many are buried unidentified and marked with nothing but numbers.

That’s what it is…

 

The Kremlin’s exploitation of the Western argument for “stopping the bloodshed” conceals a critical nuance. Stopping the fighting does not stop the killing when it comes to Russia. The killing continues in Russian torture chambers on territory that Russia occupies – a process that is less visible to Western audiences and in a place where victims are stripped of the means to defend themselves. More in our latest
@TheStudyofWar essay “Denying Russia’s Only Strategy for Success.” https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/denying-russia%E2%80%99s-only-strategy-success

 

Greetings to all Christians who celebrate Easter today.

I especially want to congratulate all military personnel who celebrate Easter on duty.

Thanks to your courage and dedication, thousands of Ukrainian families today have the opportunity to celebrate one of the most important Christian holidays at home in comfort.
Thank you, warriors.

I wish you joy, unity, and peace.
May all your prayers be heard.

I finally had some time to summarize the front movements of the last 6 months according to my maps. It is the same time period since the US Congress has been hampered by Trump and his allies to release the next military aid to Ukraine. I concluded the following numbers:

Russian gains:

250.1 square kilometers / 96.6 square miles

For comparison reasons I have included the Ukrainian gains from the counter offensive which kicked off in summer last year. Those are the numbers (minus the recent Russian gains):

297.7 square kilometers / 115.1 square miles

I have included the maps with detailed distribution where those gains were achieved.

The above mentioned numbers do not include the events around Krynky, respectively Kherson.

#Ukraine

Avdiivka:

 

Kharkiv:

The Zaporizhzhia front:

Another Russian armored thrust was blunted, this time at the Zaporizhzhia front. Around 11 knocked out vehicles can be seen on that footage. And the heat signatures tell us that those a fresh losses.

I can only speculate, but I believe that Russians try to break through the lines in hopes that the Ukrainian stockpiles are low enough for such an attempt. They apparently learnt the hard way. They will probably switch back to meat waves.

Source: https://t.me/ukrbavovna/14130

Moscow:

Kremlin’s shamelessness knows no bounds.

Even Moscow’s massive domestic security failure, the worst terror attack in 20 years committed and confirmed by the ‘Islamic State’, is used to instigate anti-Ukrainian hatred in Russia.

“Yeah, we fucked this up, but at least we can weaponize this act of Jihadi mass murder in Moscow for our war on Ukraine, with not a single piece of evidence behind our claims.”

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

The tweet is from last night:

Open thread!

 

Reader Interactions

42Comments

  1. 1.

    patrick II

    Everyone should watch the story of Acoustic attacks on Americans in the intelligence community on 60 minutes tonight

  2. 2.

    dr. luba

    In Ukraine both major churches (Orthodox and Catholic) are eastern rite, and will continue to celebrate Easter with the rest of eastern christianity.

    Most of the orthodox churches have switched over to the revised Julian calendar, which is essentially the same as the Gregorian, so most feast days/holidays will be on the same dates with the west.  Easter, however, is a moveable feast, and calculated based on a number of criteria.  In eastern tradition, this means that it never precedes Passover.

    I see no reason that this will change in the future.

  3. 3.

    Westyny

    Thank you, Adam.  I hope Johnson isn’t lying about bringing Ukraine up for a vote on April 9. Pissed that it’s taken this long.

  4. 4.

    Gin & Tonic

    Two years since the liberation of Bucha and still the tankies and fellow travelers refuse to acknowledge what happened there.

  8. 8.

    trollhattan

    Not related, or just a bit, but good news today out of Turkey (Erdogan being Vlad-adjacent).

    Turkey’s main opposition party has claimed big election victories in the main cities of Istanbul and Ankara.

    The results are a significant blow for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who had hoped to regain control of the cities less than a year after he claimed a third term as president. He led the campaign to win in Istanbul, where he grew up and became mayor.

    But Ekrem Imamoglu, who first won the city in 2019, scored a second victory for the secular opposition CHP. Mr Erdogan had vowed a new era in Turkey’s megacity of almost 16 million people, but the incumbent mayor of Istanbul was on course to win more than 50% of the vote, over 10 points ahead of the president’s AK Party candidate.

    This was also the first time since Mr Erdogan came to power 21 years ago that his party was defeated across the country at the ballot box.

    In the capital Ankara, opposition mayor Mansur Yavas was so far ahead of his rival on 59% that he declared victory when less than half the votes were in. Supporters blocked all the main roads in the city, waving flags and sounding their car horns.

    Significantly, the CHP was also on course to win in many of Turkey’s other big cities, including Izmir and Bursa, Adana and the resort of Antalya.

    President Erdogan, 70, acknowledged the election had not gone as he had hoped, but he told supporters in Ankara it would mark “not an end for us but rather a turning point”.

    Could this coax Turkey into supporting a more pro-Ukraine stance?

  9. 9.

    Bill Arnold

    @Jay:
    Is that more or fewer than usual? Searching google for prior-to-2022, the typical Russian number for conscripts seems to be 250-300K per year (always.(/usually?) with a decree), with many more drafted but many rejected.

  10. 10.

    karen marie

    @Westyny:  Johnson will wait until the US embassy is hit by a Russian missile and the US ambassador is killed.  Then he’ll convene a special committee to determine that Joe Biden’s responsible because he didn’t demand that Ukraine surrender before such a tragedy.

  11. 11.

    Yutsano

    @trollhattan: ​
     

    Could this coax Turkey into supporting a more pro-Ukraine stance?

    Erdoğan is gonna Erdoğan. He wants to restore the long lost glory of the Caliphate with him as a restored Emperor of the great Ottoman Empire. Unfortunately it looks like the Islamists are in control in the military, otherwise there should have been some kind of intervention coming that way as it has in the past. I guess things are about to get exciting, but changing Erdoğan’s course is highly unlikely.

  12. 12.

    Jay

    @Bill Arnold:

    Both the ruZZian Government and ruZZian media mouth pieces denied for the past 6 months that there would be a new conscription for the SMO

    This is not the “annual” conscription.

  14. 14.

    v

    @Jay: If this 60 MInutes story makes a big splash, I’m sure Cheryl will have something to say about it; I’ll wait for her judgment (or survey of judgments of others).  Her previous writeups on this subject appeared to reject the hypothesis of some sort of directed EM energy weapon.

    ETA: Oops, this is me, Chet Murthy.  Somehow my cookie has gotten corrupted.

  17. 17.

    Chet Murthy

    @Another Scott: It’s always possible something new and wild is going on.  Who knows.  Best to assume not, though, until some compelling evidence and theory is produced.  By experienced and reputable investigators.

  18. 18.

    Roberto el oso

    @Yutsano: my understanding is that the Turkish government has actually been fairly supportive of Ukraine, despite the possibility of upsetting Russia (in terms of providing arms to Ukraine, helping the grain shipments flow, taking in refugees, and so on). Turkey has a long and commendable record as a Western ally, and so, whatever Erdogan’s personal ambitions might be, I hardly see them jeopardizing their established alliances.

  19. 19.

    Geminid

    @trollhattan:

     

    @Yutsano: Erdogan is coming to Washington May 9 and the war in Ukraine will likely be one of the topics he discusses with President Biden. Syria and Gaza are two others. Erdogan’s trusted Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and his intelligence chief were in Washigton recently to prepare for the mmeetings.

    Turkish-American relations have been rocky over the last decade but Biden and Erdogan had a good meeting last July at the Vilnius Nato summit. The following month Turkiye and the US staged high-profile naval exercises in the eastern Mediterranean, and Ambassodor Jeff Flake and drone magnate Selcin Bayraktar visited the USS Gerald R. Ford. This would not have happened a year ago.

    Then, the Ford made a port call at the resort city of Antalya. Antalya’s harbor has hosted a number of Russian mega-yachts since 2022 and they must have made an interesting contrast to the 100,000 ton aircraft carrier.

  21. 21.

    Chet Murthy

    @Roberto el oso: Turkey’s been playing both sides of this one all along.  So just yesterday we learned that half of the guncotton RU imports, comes thru a Turkish firm.  None of that shit is gonna happen unless it gets at least a tacit nod from the powers-that-be, in Turkey.  Also, I wouldn’t say that their record as an ally is “commendable”: they’ve cozied up to Putin on occasion, and I expect them to do it again.

    It is what it is though, and having Turkey inside NATO is better than having them outside.

  22. 22.

    Jay

    @Chet Murthy:

    @Another Scott:

    The Insider report notes that every case of “Havana Syndrome” has members of the GRU 29155 assassination team present within a block when people were “attacked”.

    You know, the Skripal, Nalvany and a crap load of other people, arms factory bombings, etc., unit.

    These are the same guys who tracked and identified the Skripal killers when the UK didn’t have a clue.

  23. 23.

    Roberto el oso

    @Chet Murthy: Yes, good points. I meant ‘commendable’ as a reflection of their entire postwar (WWII) history, as in their service in the Korean War, their willingness to help out during the Cuban Missile Crisis by agreeing to have missiles removed from their own territory, and by their maintenance of decent, or at least, normal relations with Israel, in contrast to pretty much every other Muslim country.

  24. 24.

    Geminid

    @Chet Murthy: One thing I notice regarding Turkiye’s role in this war is that I seldom if ever hear Ukrainian officials including President Zelenskyy criticize Turkiye. The two countries must have their differences but they seem to keep them between themselves. They also keep the scope of Turkish arms supplies to Ukraine to themselves, but they have been substantial including in the months immediately before and after Russia invaded, when Ukraine needed them the most.

    Ed. And unlike other Nato countries, Turkiye does not restrict the use of its weapons to Ukrainian territory.

  25. 25.

    Chet Murthy

    @Jay: Oh sure, I’m not saying the GRU aren’t in it up to their elbows.  Just that it seems difficult to imagine how a directed energy weapon would do the trick.  But maybe we’ll learn more soon: it’s always possible.

  26. 26.

    Chet Murthy

    @Geminid: Indeed, I’ve noticed that too.  My theory is that Turkey views this as part of their long-term strategy to become a major power, and at the moment, that doesn’t mean cutting off RU, but it also doesn’t mean helping RU to win outright.

  27. 27.

    wjca

    @Geminid:  I seldom if ever hear Ukrainian officials including President Zelenskyy criticize Turkiye. The two countries must have their differences but they seem to keep them between themselves.

    Once they get past the (now much reduced) Russian Black Sea Fleet, Ukrainian agricultural exports still need to go out thru the Bosphorus.  An irritated Turkiye could shut the door on that.  So maintaining civil relations has to be a high priority for the Ukranian government.

  28. 28.

    Jay

    @Chet Murthy:

    The theory is focused microwaves creating the Minor Syndrome.

    Funny thing is Ivan Terentyev, an engineer and assassin with 29155 has a top secret patent for an energy weapon that was transferred to the GRU’s Advanced Research Institute, when his identity and travels were exposed, and he was transferred out of the GRU and into another Government post.

    Also funny, the only ruZZian studies on Minor Syndrome were conducted and published by Ivan Terentyev.

  29. 29.

    Carlo Graziani

    On Adviidvka:

    I know that this makes no sense to some of you and I understand why. But regardless of whether it does or does not make sense to you, it apparently makes sense to Putin and people.

    It is not the case that “this makes no sense” to us. The point is that the strategically senseless Russian offensive commitment at Adviivka is significant for understanding the progress and the likely future of the war.

    The Russians could have made a different choice about where to make their maximum effort: they could have attempted to retake Kupyansk. Which would have been a very serious problem for Ukraine, and would have constituted a strategic disaster had they succeeded. And this would have been a very realistic goal for the Russians, given that their forces are only a few kilometers away from this vital rail node that is actively servicing UA supply in the Karkhiv front.

    Instead, the Russians elected to plod ahead in Donetsk,  gaining a risible amount of territory at a negligible suburb of Donetsk in exchange for a fearsome cost in personnel and materiel, with no material prospect for follow-through. All because to the Kremlin, the political goal of conquering Donetsk Oblast overrides any other strategic consideration materially related to actually winning the war.

    This fact is significant, and noteworthy. It speaks to the Russian ability to coherently mobilize its superior resources to prevail in the war. “Prevailing” means articulating achievable war aims, and mobilizing forces to achieve those aims. The evidence is that Russia is still incapable of even articulating such coherent war aims. In terms of the long game—Putin’s supposed perspective adavantage in this conflict—this bodes very poorly for Russian chances of obtaining a desirable outcome. The Russians are lying to themselves about what it even means to win this war. Unless they somehow correct this problem (personal assessment: “rub a fucking lamp”)  they are as likely to prevail in this war as the US was in Vietnam, or as the USSR was in Afghanistan.

  30. 30.

    Geminid

    @Chet Murthy: I think one reason Erdogan did not go along with sanctions Russia is it would have really hurt Turkiye’s economy.when it was already under a lot of stress. It was in Turkiye’s national interests.

    But long term, Russia is Turkiye’s greatest threat. It’s been that way the last four centuries, and will likely be for rest of this one at least.

    So I bet Erdogan was very satisfied to ratify Sweden’s accession to Nato. He dragged it out because he wanted some things from Sweden. He got them with the assistance of Nato Secretary General Stoltenberg and Finland, so then Erdogan held out for what he wanted from the US. He got that with the assistance of the FBI agents who found all those gold bars in Senator Menendez’s house.

    It also helped that Erdogan and Greek Prime Minister Mitzotakis got their two countries’ relations back on track last year.

  31. 31.

    Geminid

    @wjca: Turkiye is fairly scrupulous about its rights and responsibilties under the Treaty of Montreaux, and I think they would be unlikely to interfere with Ukrainian shipping even if they had more reason than Zelenskyy criticizing them. And they wouldn’t want to anyway, because Ukraine and Turkiye are natural economic partners and strategic partners.

  32. 32.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: Perhaps Putin’s goal is now consolidating the existing gains, rather than driving toward the Dnipro, which the Russia Army does not appear to be in any shape of of doing. Taking Avdiivka will make it much more difficult & costly for Ukraine to eventually retake Donetsk.

  33. 33.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid: I think Zelenskyy has been circumspect in criticism of Turkish trade w/ & facilitation of sanction busting for Russia for the same reason he has been circumspect in his criticism of the same toward Xi, Modi, Lula, MBS & MBZ. He wants to keep the “Straddlers” straddling. That is prudent diplomacy. Neither he nor the West can browbeat the “Straddlers” into adopting a different posture, & the PRC in particular is the number one customer for Ukrainian grains.

  34. 34.

    Chet Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian: 1. China is a Russian *ally*, not a “straddler”.  2. Turkey is much closer to an ally of Ukraine than a straddler: they build Ukraine’s navy, after all.

  35. 35.

    wjca

    @Geminid: Turkiye is fairly scrupulous about its rights and responsibilties under the Treaty of Montreaux, and I think they would be unlikely to interfere with Ukrainian shipping even if they had more reason than Zelenskyy criticizing them.

    Agreed.  But in Ukraine’s position, even a tiny risk is not worth running.

  36. 36.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Avidiivka has been a Ukrainian “Fortress City” since 2013.

    It was the place where, for over a decade, ruZZian expansionist dreams, go to die.

    It’s not really “strategic”, but it is propaganda important.

  37. 37.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: The Avdiivka campaign would still be the absolute worst, bar none, approach to consolidation, if that were really Putin’s new war aim—and there is no evidence suggesting anything so conservatively defensive in Russian war aims.

    There is nothing about a three-month offensive campaign that burns through tens of thousands of casualties and masses of irreplaceable equipment and ammo for the sake of a gain equivalent to a square of land 15 km on a side that says “consolidation campaign.”

  38. 38.

    karen marie

    @Chet Murthy: People keep saying “Turkey” when they mean “Erdogan.”  It’s still my opinion the alleged coup in 2016 was a setup by Erdogan. It was entirely too convenient for making him permanent ruler.

  39. 39.

    Geminid

    @wjca: I think the reason that Ukrainian officials don’t criticize Turkiye’s course in this war is that they understand that Turkiye is helping them much more than it is helping Russia. Among other things Turkiye and Nato allies Bulgaria and Rumania have a joint operation to sweep mines in the western Black Sea. A Turkish shipyard is building the second of two corvettes for Ukraine’s navy. The first, the Hetman Ivan Mazepa, is ready for delivery but it might have to stay in the Sea of Marmara for a while.

    Stijn Mitzer wrote a really good article for his Oryx site, titled “The Stalwart Ally: Turkish Arms Deliveries to Ukraine,” November 23, 2022. Mitzer said that while Turkiye was one of the top Nato members providing arms to Ukraine, he relied upon Ukrainian officials speaking off the record for his reporting because Turkiye doesn’t talk about it. There were reports that Turkiye really hustled arms into Ukraine in the weeks and days before Russia invaded, when there was a critical need. One cargo plane made the last delivery too late to fly out before the shooting started, and was stranded for five months. The Russians didn’t blow it up, but they wouldn’t let it fly out either until Erdogan made some deal with his transactional frenemy Putin.

  41. 41.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chet Murthy: At this point, Belarus, Iran & NK are the bona fide allies of Russia, given  the qty. of munitions they are selling to Russia to sustain its war effort. The PRC is not providing military equipment or munitions, but is selling dual use components that can go into military equipment or munitions (such as the commodity chips), or civilian equipment that can be repurposed for military use (such as the sand buggies). Türkiye is also a key source & conduit for these flows.

    If the PRC is actually making its enormous military industrial capacity available to support the Russian war effort, Ukraine would be in a much worse position currently. My guess is that the central aim of Ukrainian foreign policy vis-a-vis the PRC is to make sure that does not happen.

  42. 42.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: I agree, but at this point I am not sure the Russian Army is capable of more than throwing men & equipment into meat grinders that sloooowly wear down the Ukrainian defense to achieve any objective, sensible or otherwise. Thus, the manner w/ which Russian attempt to achieve its objectives is no longer suggestive of whether the objectives are sensible.

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