Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

So many bastards, so little time.

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

‘Museums aren’t America’s attic for its racist shit.’

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

“I never thought they’d lock HIM up,” sobbed a distraught member of the Lock Her Up Party.

Today’s gop: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

I have other things to bitch about but those will have to wait.

Nikki Haley, who can’t acknowledge ‘slavery’, is a pathetic shill.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

Let’s show the world that autocracy can be defeated.

Wake up. Grow up. Get in the fight.

People are complicated. Love is not.

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson is the bland and smiling face of evil.

“woke” is the new caravan.

Trump’s legal defense is going to be a dumpster fire inside a clown car on a derailing train.

My right to basic bodily autonomy is not on the table. that’s the new deal.

It could be worse. Vance could have said “post-menopausal sows.” Waiting for that audiotape to surface.

I desperately hope that, yet again, I am wrong.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

Balloon Juice, where there is always someone who will say you’re doing it wrong.

Let’s finish the job.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 771: The Butcher’s Bill from Kharkiv

War for Ukraine Day 771: The Butcher’s Bill from Kharkiv

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Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a black border. There are grey buildings with black windows along the left side. The center is a yellowy-grey, perhaps Ukrainian wheat fields. There is a black shadow figure striding through it. The figure's legs and feet are all that is visible of it. On the right side are red Zs, which symbolize Putin's/Russia's "Z" war/special military operation in Ukraine. The sky above the buildings is light grey. "GENOCIDE IS GOING BUT WHO EVEN CARES?" is painted in black in the upper left hand corner.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

The air raid alert was activated for Kharkiv just before I began drafting last night’s post. We now know the butcher’s bill.

First, Russia’s strike on Kharkiv’s civilian power generation and transmission grid put a nuclear facility at risk last night.

Second, Russia has again used its double tap strike tactics again last night.

Kharkiv. A young firefighter cries at the place of explosion, where russia few minutes before killed his father, a 52-year-old rescuer.

Eternal memory to Vladyslav Logienko, who died saving the lives of civilians.
Ukraine needs more air defense systems, to save our people from russian terror. Such tragedies should not be repeated.

📹: Ihor Klymenko

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Bolstering air defense for Kharkiv, Sumy and our southern regions is an urgent necessity – address by the President of Ukraine

4 April 2024 – 20:28

I wish you health, dear Ukrainians!

I held a meeting of the Staff, primarily on the production and supply of drones and electronic warfare equipment for this year. There was a detailed report on contracts, everything was as specific as possible – no empty words, only clear written agreements with manufacturers, clear financing, and clear delivery deadlines. Everyone responsible for this area did a really good job. We will be stronger in terms of all types of drones and electronic warfare. I have set a similar task for the missile program – to work out everything in detail so that the Ukrainian Defense Forces can rely on robust and increasing missile support for our actions.

There was also a detailed report from the Commander-in-Chief on all those areas of the front where the Russian army expected to succeed at the moment. We managed to stabilize our positions. The Commander-in-Chief reported on our actions that prevent the occupier from advancing. Given the shortage of shells and a significant slowdown in supplies, these results are really good.

I am grateful to all the soldiers and commanders who ensure the results on the battlefield. The resilience of each of them is the resilience of our entire Ukraine.

There was also the first report of the new Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, General Ivashchenko, on specific actions in his position and specific FIS activities. The plans were approved.

Of course, throughout the day there were reports on the situation in the regions. Special attention was paid to Kharkiv and the consequences of Russian strikes on the city. Today, unfortunately, four people were killed, including three rescuers from our State Emergency Service of Ukraine, because of a “Shahed” strike on an ordinary residential area. They arrived at the scene after the first strike and then the second hit occurred. A vile Russian tactic. My condolences to all the families and friends.

Today I spoke with the military about how to provide greater protection for Kharkiv – specifically in terms of air defense. All our diplomats have the same task. Bolstering air defense for Kharkiv, the entire Kharkiv region, Sumy region, and the southern regions is an absolute and urgent necessity. And I am grateful to every country, every leader who is now in communication with us looking for opportunities to help. It is totally unacceptable that so many countries in the world are still thinking about how to counter terror, even though there are only a few political decisions needed – a few air defense systems that could fundamentally change the situation. We will continue appropriate work with our partners.

And one more thing.

I would like to commend the warriors who have proven themselves most effective at the front these days. The 128th separate mountain assault brigade, the 66th artillery division of the 406th separate artillery brigade, the 35th separate marine brigade and the 126th separate brigade of the Territorial Defense Forces. Thank you all, warriors! And I am especially grateful today to the warriors of the Omega Special Forces Center. This is one of the most effective and experienced units of the National Guard of Ukraine. It was on this day 21 years ago that Omega was founded, and during this war the guys are showing maximum combat capability. 11 Omega warriors have been conferred the title of Hero of Ukraine, eight of them posthumously.

Glory to everyone who fights for Ukraine! To everyone who protects and saves the lives of our people! And may the memory of all Ukrainians who gave their lives for the sake of our country and people be eternal and blessed!

Glory to Ukraine!

A strike on Kharkiv, just an ordinary apartment building. With three Shaheds. A despicable and cynical attack, when the rescuers arrived at the scene of the strike, the terrorists attacked again.

As a result of the attack, 4 people were killed. Among them were our rescuers: Vladyslav Lohinov, Serhii Baidalinov and Volodymyr Matiushenko. A civilian, Zoia Bondiukova, was also killed. My sincere condolences to the families and loved ones of the victims. More than 10 people were injured, all of whom are receiving the necessary assistance.

Russian terrorists will be held accountable for their actions in Kharkiv and for all acts of aggression against our people. We are working with our partners to strengthen the protection of our cities and villages and to protect our citizens. Strengthening Ukraine’s air defense capabilities directly translates into saving lives.

@United24media

 

75 years ago our partners created the world’s most powerful alliance—@NATO. The Alliance unites 32 member countries to protect democratic values from authoritarianism.

Today, Ukrainian soldiers fight for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. But they are also fighting to keep russian invaders away from the rest of Europe, effectively fulfilling one of NATO’s core commitments. Ukraine’s future is in NATO.

#NATO75 #1NATO75years

I believe that’s what they call shade.

While the GOP majority House has dithered, the State Department has assessed that the Russians have reconstituted.

While Congress has failed to pass an appropriation and Ukraine is running out of ammunition

“We have assessed over the course of the last couple of months that Russia has almost completely reconstituted militarily,” said Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell”

https://defensenews.com/pentagon/2024/04/03/russian-military-almost-completely-reconstituted-us-official-says/

Before we go to the details from Defense News, I want to remind everyone that the State Department does have its own intelligence agency: the Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR). While small, INR is the oldest intelligence element in the US government. It’s normal focus is on supporting foreign policy and diplomacy, not assessing adversaries, which is what defense and military intelligence is for. So Deputy Secretary Campbell’s statement is intriguing. Here are the details:

Russia has rebuilt its military after suffering enormous losses during its invasion of Ukraine, according to a U.S. State Department official.

“We have assessed over the course of the last couple of months that Russia has almost completely reconstituted militarily,” said Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell at an event hosted by the Center for a New American Security.

Campbell’s assessment seems to contradict those of the Pentagon and America’s allies in Europe.

At a meeting of countries that support Ukraine late last month, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that Russia had suffered more than 315,000 casualties during the war. With a drop in American aid, leading to ammunition shortages on Ukraine’s front lines, Russian forces have advanced. But those too have been costly, the Pentagon has said.

In an interview earlier this year, the chair of Lithuania’s national security committee estimated it would take Russia between five and seven years to reconstitute its forces for a full-scale war.

Still Moscow has surged defense spending since 2022 — up to 6% of national GDP in its 2024 budget. The rise is part of a larger effort by the Kremlin to move its economy, and in particular its defense industry, onto a wartime footing.

Part of its success comes from China’s support, along with that from North Korea and Iran. Both Campbell and another senior administration official, speaking with reporters this week on the condition of anonymity, said that China has helped its partner endure economic and military setbacks in the last two years.

“We’ve really seen the [People’s Republic of China] start to help to rebuild Russia’s defense industrial base, essentially backfilling the trade from European partners” that lapsed when Russia invaded, the official said.

President Joe Biden addressed this concern in a call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping Tuesday, according to a White House readout.

Moscow’s success has added pressure to the government in Kyiv, which this week lowered the draft age from 27 to 25 amid losses on the front lines. Ukraine is still hoping for a giant infusion of American aid still held up in Congress. House Speaker Mike Johnson has so far refused to call that national security supplemental for a vote, though he recently signaled one could come under certain conditions.

Without it, Ukraine’s armed forces will continue needing to ration ammunition and air defense on the front lines and around the country. Still, that doesn’t mean the front lines are verging on collapse, said Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff CQ Brown.

“Does it make it more complicated, more challenging for the Ukrainians without the supplemental — yes,” said Brown at an event hosted last week by the Defense Writers Group. “But they’ve been able to defend fairly well.”

Here’s Tatarigami’s take on Campbell’s assessment. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App.

2/ While it’s true that Russia is constantly rebuilding its forces and trying to replace losses, including recruiting new personnel and creating new units and military districts, the reality differs significantly from what appears on paper. 
3/ Frontelligence Insight has closely monitored multiple Russian units and noted a problem that has become more apparent since 2023 and continues to worsen in 2024: armored losses are being replaced by civilian vehicles such as vans, pickup trucks, and other unarmored vehiclesImage
4/ We documented evidence of the replacement of T-72 tanks of various modifications with T-62 and T-55s in at least one tank unit. While we don’t know the situation across all units, occasional videos of T-55 and T-62 in different areas suggest that this is not an isolated caseImage
5/ According to Oryx, since the start of the invasion, the number of lost vehicles has surpassed 15,000, as of around 2024/03/24, including 2,856 tanks, 135 helicopters, 106 aircraft, and 20 ships. Russia cannot replace such numbers within two years, despite the Soviet legacy 
6/ In fairness, Russia still maintains an advantage over Ukraine in terms of replacement and substitution, as Ukraine has received minimal replacements since 2023, and its domestic production, while improving significantly, still lags behind in meeting frontline needs. 
7/ Despite suffering losses in land, naval, and aerial vehicles, Russia has seriously expanded its UAV arsenal, potentially one of the most numerous in the world, consisting of hundreds of thousands of tactical reconnaissance, suicide, and bomber drones. 
8/ Yet, newly formed units don’t get vehicles per their organizational structure, sometimes resembling rifle units more than motorized or mechanized units. Furthermore, during the Avdiivka battle, the newly formed 25th CAA had to transfer its equipment to the 2nd and 41st armies. 
9/ Considering the above, Russian forces went through transformation, acquiring new UAV and EW capabilities as well as valuable experience, while also suffering tens of thousands of vehicle losses and the loss of experienced officers and soldiers.Electronic warfare system installed atop a damaged and abandoned Russian vehicle, designed to counter FPV drones. Drone footage captured during the failed assault in February 2024
10/ It will take Russia multiple years to rebuild its army. Moreover, given the experience in the invasion of Ukraine, its post-2022 forces, previously organized in BTG units, will look very different – the future size and composition will depend on the outcomes of the war. 

11/ If you have found this thread valuable, please consider liking and sharing the first message of the thread. Additionally, we kindly ask for your support, as we haven’t requested donations for over a month, and our resources are currently very depleted

sad

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis once again hits the nail on the head. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App.

Comforting stories can help win elections. But if they are false they immobilise us, prevent us from taking real action, while Ukrainians continue to die for us. 🧵 
Ukrainians have performed miracles and repeatedly embarrassed the “experts”. We should be grateful to have such an ally, but instead of helping them win, we ask them to fight with one hand tied behind their back. 🧵 
We are in great danger. Russia, very predictably, has been emboldened by appeasement. The survival of the rules-based system is in doubt. New hotspots are igniting all over the world. This is not the future we want to live in, but it is the future that is being built. 🧵 
The fact remains that anything other than total restoration of Ukraine’s sovereignty and security would invite Putin and the world’s tyrants to keep going, to keep crossing borders, to keep raping and murdering in order to achieve their aims.🧵 
There is little mystery about what can happen if we keep waiting for a miracle. Territories can be lost, countries can be occupied. There is no positive spin to this story, no happy ending, unless we choose to rewrite this script.🧵 
It’s tempting to hold back, leave it up to fate and pretend we can’t influence the outcome, but that’s no way to honour our historic responsibilities. The only way is this: we choose to change course, choose to get serious and choose to help Ukraine achieve a full victory. 🧵 
The definitive narrative will be written by historians. They will discuss our choices. If we fail, they will be harsh. They will wonder why we believed in the fiction we told ourselves and chose to ignore the facts on the ground. They will call it a tragedy, not a victory. /🧵 

Congressman Lieu gets it!

Novomykhailivka:

The Avdiivka front:

Bakhmut front:

Repelling Russian attack on Bakhmut front.

The attack was today. Ukrainian sources wrote about this attack as follows: “Today, in the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy tried to carry out a massive mechanized assault, using about 25 AFVs.

Half are destroyed, the other half retreated, we are cleaning up the infantry, the guys did an incredibly hard job.” – https://t.me/stanislav_osman/5538

Also according to @OSINTua 11 out of 25 Russian AFVs were lost during the attack.

Video: https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/29

Chasiv Yar:

From NPR:

CHASIV YAR, Ukraine — Every morning, Mayor Serhii Chaus loads a van with bread, bottled water and hot meals, puts on his body armor and starts driving to his hometown.

More than 13,000 people used to live in this eastern Ukrainian town before Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Now with Russian troops on Chasiv Yar’s doorstep, only a few hundred remain under constant fire.

“I have to keep my fear checked, on the edge, so my body and mind can hold out,” he says. “Because the people there depend on me.”

Russian forces are now approaching the outskirts of Chasiv Yar, according to the Institute for the Study of War, in an attempt to encircle and seize it as part of a renewed Russian offensive on multiple fronts in eastern Ukraine. The Washington-based think tank estimates Russian forces have taken an additional 195 square miles of Ukraine — an area slightly smaller than Chicago — since launching the offensive in October.

The onslaught stepped up in February, after Ukrainian troops withdrew from Avdiivka, a city about 50 miles south of Chasiv Yar. The Ukrainian military says its forces are low on ammunition because of delays in foreign aid. Russian fighter jets pounded Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka constantly with highly destructive glide bombs.

Avdiivka was the Kremlin’s first significant victory since last May, when Russian troops took control of the key industrial city of Bakhmut, about 6 miles from Chasiv Yar.

“I know everyone in town”

Constant Russian attacks have driven out most of Chasiv Yar’s residents and knocked out the town’s power and running water.

Still, the mayor is trying to keep the town operating.

“We try to visit at least half of the neighborhoods in the city every day, to talk to people,” Chaus says. “Their needs must be recorded and understood, and we need to figure out how to solve them — and whether it’s even possible to solve them.”

There are many problems. How to get people to a doctor or find them the right medicine. How to fix buildings destroyed every day. How to evacuate those who want to leave. How to keep those who stay warm and fed.

Locals who have stayed in Chasiv Yar try to help the mayor. He brings up what’s left of the utilities department, now run by a woman in her 70s. Chaus says the woman initially left Chasiv Yar but grew anxious in exile.

“She was gone for about six months and then told me, ‘Find me a job, I want to go back,’ ” he says. “And now she’s here, exposed to danger.”

He says her team, composed mostly of elderly volunteers, now delivers firewood and sweeps the streets, even during shelling. Chaus can’t always reach them, but he tries.

“I know everyone in town,” he says. “I know all their faces, and most by name.”

“Shield town”

In Chasiv Yar, the streets are empty. The buildings look crushed and empty. The air smells burnt, heavy with the stench of gunpowder and the propellant of spent munitions.

Chaus and Pryimenko stop outside the ruins of a mini-market. Still intact above the doorway hangs a sign with images of the chocolates, bread and sausage you once could buy here. Chaus clenches his jaw and starts unloading his van.

“We’re going to try to deliver this food,” he says, “and then we’ll see how things go.”

Drones fly overhead. There are explosions every few seconds.

Tetiana Procenko doesn’t flinch as she emerges from the ruins of the mini-market, where she’s been sheltering.

“Oh borsch!” she says, as the mayor hands her containers of the still-hot, beet-red stew. “And thanks a lot for the bread.”

Procenko is 64, a retired school guard. She will share the food the mayor brought with their neighbors.

Asked if she’s scared here and why she won’t leave for someplace safer, she says, “Where can I go? And how can I support myself? I left [Chasiv Yar] and came back, and then left and came back again. I don’t have enough money to support myself.”

Procenko says her pension is too small to live on, and the Ukrainian state doesn’t offer enough aid to find a decent place to live as an internally displaced person.

“At least this is our home,” Procenko says of Chasiv Yar.

The mayor calls Chasiv Yar a “shield town.” He says it’s taking so much fire to shield a bigger city, Kostiantynivka, which has a railway hub the Russians want.

The rail hub

Kostiantynivka is roughly 12 miles away from Chasiv Yar. In late February, Russian forces bombed the train station, now a pile of rubble. But the rail lines that both sides need to supply troops are intact.

The blast also damaged a church across the street. Workers are repairing its spires and broken windows. In the church courtyard, a gray-haired man is sweeping up broken glass and gathering small pieces of concrete. He says his name is Hennady but doesn’t want to give a last name because he says he fears for his safety.

“When will they just sit down and negotiate a peace settlement?” he asks. “Everyone here wants this war to stop. Everyone is tired.”

A Russian jet flies overhead. Hennady keeps working even after the warplane drops a bomb somewhere in the distance.

Kostiantynivka’s residents have been watching with dread as Russian forces pummel Chasiv Yar. Parts of eastern Ukraine have been under Russian control for a decade. They describe Russian occupation like a cancer slowly metastasizing toward them — to kill them.

“Living on the front line, knowing that every day your life can end, that puts a lot of pressure on your psyche, your physical health,” says 31-year-old Kristina Vasyliuk, who used to work in arts administration. “You may not realize it until it hits you all at once.”

Much, much more, including pictures, at the link!

Russia:

Oy vey…

From Reuters:

MOSCOW/LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) – When engineers at Russian oil firm Lukoil (LKOH.MM) discovered a turbine had broken at their largest refinery on January 4, they quickly realised the problem was far from trivial.

There was only one company that knew how to repair the gasoline-producing unit at the NORSI refinery, located on the Volga River, some 430 km (270 miles) east of Moscow. The problem was that the company is American, according to five sources familiar with the incident.

The firm, petroleum engineering multinational UOP, had withdrawn from Russia after the country invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

“They (the engineers) rushed around to find spare parts and they couldn’t find anything,” said a source close to Lukoil, who asked not to be named because he is not allowed to speak to the media. “Then the whole unit just stopped.”

Four other sources said the unit – a catalytic cracker used to convert heavier hydrocarbons into gasoline – has been out of production since January and it was not clear when it could be repaired due to a lack of expertise inside Russia. The KK-1 unit is one of only two catalytic crackers at the plant.

As a result, the NORSI refinery – the fourth-biggest in Russia – has cut gasoline production by 40%, according to two of the sources. Lukoil did not respond to requests for comment for this story.

The Lukoil refinery is an example of wider problems in Russia’s energy sector where some oil firms are struggling in the face of Western sanctions to repair their refineries, built with the help of U.S. and European engineering firms, according to at least 10 Russian industry sources.

The difficulties have been exacerbated by Ukrainian drone attacks that have struck at least a dozen Russian refineries this year, the industry sources said. The attacks forced Russian refineries to shut in some 14% of capacity in the first quarter, according to Reuters calculations.

“If the stream of drones continues at this rate and Russian air defences don’t improve, Ukraine will be able to cut Russian refining runs quicker than Russian firms will be able to repair them,” said Sergey Vakulenko, an expert on Russia’s energy industry and non-resident fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, an international affairs think tank.

Russia’s top energy official, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, said last week that the damaged NORSI facilities should resume operations within a month or two, as Russian firms were working to produce the spare parts needed. read more

He also said other Russian refineries have boosted production after the drone attacks and there was no shortage on the local fuel market.

Russia’s energy ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Minister Nikolai Shulginov said on Wednesday all refineries would be fixed by June, without providing further details.

The NORSI refinery, near the city of Nizhny Novgorod, has a capacity of 405,000 metric tons a month of gasoline or 11% of Russia’s total.

The current outage would cost Lukoil nearly $100 million in lost revenues a month, based on an average Russian gasoline price of $587 per metric ton, according to Reuters’ calculations.

Honeywell International Inc , the parent company for UOP, said in a statement to Reuters it had not provided any equipment, parts, products or services to the refinery at Nizhny Novgorod since February 2022, nor to the independently-managed Slavyansk ECO refinery.

The Slavyansk refinery was hit by a Ukrainian drone attack on March 18 and caught fire briefly.

“We are actively working to identify and interrupt any possible diversion of our products into Russia via third parties,” Honeywell told Reuters by email. The company said it complies with all applicable export license requirements, sanctions laws and regulations.

The United States and its allies have imposed sanctions on thousands of Russian targets since the invasion of Ukraine and around 1,000 companies have announced their departure from the country.

Russia’s export-focused $2.2-trillion economy has proved more resilient to two years of the unprecedented sanctions than either Moscow or the West anticipated.

More at the link.

One last item for tonight.

I want to emphasize that if all you’ve done is watch the 60 Minutes episode about Havana Syndrom, you’re missing all the details. You really need to read all three of the pieces published at The Insider that I linked to at the beginning of the week in order to get the depth and breadth of what their investigation has uncovered and discovered. The first deep dive, the interview with Marc Polymeropoulos, and the reporting about the FBI counterintelligence offer. You should also give this thread about The Insider‘s investigation from Bellingcat’s Christo Grozev. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

In his February 2012 “election” platform essay, Putin wrote:Image
That same year, Putin created a military R&D program that was tasked with developing “directed energy weapons”, among other “futuristic” weapons. This was clearly Putin’s pet project.Image
This entity was called “FPI”, the Foundation for Advanced Studies owned by the MoD. It was launched in 2013. This entity launched a (secret) competition for the delivery of various working solutions. One of the competitions was for the creation of “a non-lethal acoustic weapon”. 
We know about this contest because we landed a signed copy of a contract between FPI and the winner of exactly this contest. The contract was buried in the email archive of this winner’s assistant hacked by Russian hactivists in 2019; we only discovered it a few months ago)
Image
Image
As this “weapon” (clearly one of many per Putin’s wish list) was being developed, US spies under diplomatic cover in Russia and Western Europe began experiencing unprecedented aggression: their homes broken into, their pets killed, feces dumped on the floor, etc etc. 
All of this goes to say, *Motive* was clearly there. Motive was even explicitly acknowledged by Patrushev last year:Image
Was there “Means” though? Well clearly the Russians thought they had the means.Image
And then, the Opportunity, which has been the gaping hole in this investigation for years. Until we found that the literal winner of that competition – and 8 of his subordinates, were in parts of the world, under cover, at times and in places where there were reported incidents.
Image
Image
Mind you, these people are not traditional spies – they are not trained to gather intelligence. They are trained to make short attack trips. They are trained to poison. blow-up things, snipe, and operate contraptions. This is an example of what they make in field conditions:Image
So…there’s Motive, Means & Opportunity. Does our investigation prove definitively Unit 29155 inflicted AHI incidents? No.
It’s a working hypothesis that requires further investigation. But until someone comes up with an Alibi for these assassins, it will be our main hypothesis. 
Last: obviously we can’t expect Russia to provide an alibi for their spies. But if the US ODNI is certain this wasn’t a hostile operation from Russia, they should provide a plausible innocent explanation (=alibi) for what these trained saboteurs and assassins were doing there. 

That’s enough for today.

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Reader Interactions

24Comments

  2. 2.

    West of the Rockies

    Well, as long as Republican House members are enjoying their vacation, that’s all that matters. //

  5. 5.

    Devore

    News on Help from Britain seems to faded.  Did the British exhaust whatever help they could give Ukraine.   Or is the latest help coming in under the radar?   And yeah.  Unlike Russia.  How come the Europeans haven’t significantly increased their defense spending.

    and thanks Adam

  9. 9.

    glc

    @Adam L Silverman:

    When engineers at Russian oil firm Lukoil (LKOH.MM), opens new tab discovered a turbine

    Not sure if this is in your text or just coming from a link. Shows as text.

  11. 11.

    Jay

    @Devore:

    How come the Europeans haven’t significantly increased their defense spending.

    They have,

    https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_222664.htm

    But, most European economies have not recovered from Covid at anywhere near the rate the US has,

    and unlike ruZZia, the EU has a need to maintain the health and well being of it’s public and all economic sectors.

    “War” economies are expensive and hard on civilian’s. ruZZia doesn’t care, what are the serfs going to do? Sure, the meatcubes and their families can post Telegram messages that they are being sent into meat assaults with no arty, drones, ammo, old guns, shitty equipment, etc, arn’t being paid their bonus, their wages, being issued Military documents, that when they are wounded they get turned away from medical care or sent back, their families can compain that when the meatcubes die, they don’t get the Lada, don’t get the pension, don’t get the life insurance pay out,…………

    If the meatcubes complain too much, they get, beaten, dropped naked into a pit with a cage on top, or get executed.

    If the family complains too much, the Mayor comes by with a bag of carrots or a sack of potatoes, and let’s them know that next time, it will be a “Black Maria” showing up.

  12. 12.

    Gin & Tonic

    Speaking of Avdiivka, isn’t it odd how these types keep ending up in russia?

    A former Massachusetts city councilor was charged with possession of child pornography in 2020. He skipped a court date in January 2024, flying to Istanbul.
    In February, he was reportedly in Avdiivka after joining the Russian army (with Pyatnashka).https://t.co/nwIICetMHf pic.twitter.com/HvOcj4IVYB
    — Aric Toler (@AricToler) April 4, 2024

  15. 15.

    Sally

    I heard in the podcast Ukraine: the latest, that they think EU governments are quietly pulling back aid because of the rise of right wing parties in so many countries. They are trying to appease their (perceptions of their?) electorates by reducing rhetoric and aid. They say this is why  Scholtz won’t supply Taurus. He is afraid of the afd. Many other surprising governments – eg Finland, Belgium, are in the same position.
    I am spare reading the stories in Adam’s posts as to how anyone (looking at you pope)  can think giving bits or all of UA to ru will bring peace, other than to them, who care not how much misery, torture and death is inflicted upon the population. And I want to scream, it is not about giving land up. It’s about giving up people, productive land, resources like coal, uranium, power generation, steel, many primary resources that ru needs to build and rebuild. Enabling them to attack more countries. UA is a richer country than ru. I could have including in resources toilets, washing machines and microwaves. But I don’t want to trivialise. Sorry, I’m just frustrated.

  16. 16.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Sally: russia does not want land or resources. They want to eliminate the Ukrainian language, culture and people. They have been working at this for centuries.

  20. 20.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Tatarigami_UA’s analysis of the current state of the Russian military makes a lot more sense than Kurt Campbell’s claims. It is impossible to evaluate the latter claims w/o knowing the data input, assumptions & analyses.

  21. 21.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Jay:

    “War” economies are expensive and hard on civilian’s. ruZZia doesn’t care, what are the serfs going to do?

    To say nothing of the fact that no Western nation has operated a “war economy” since 1945. Even in the coldest freezer section of the Cold War. That term, which technically indicates government regulatory control of economic resources to prioritize military-industrial production, and is associated with rationing and deprivation of the civilian economy, needs to be retired from the discussion of Western management of military procurement, at least until the next major war breaks out between the US and a near-peer level adversary (heaven forfend). It’s use is extremely misleading of public expectations of military procurement.

    The nations that have managed “war economies” since 1945 are basically the Warsaw Pact nations (principally, but not exclusively the USSR), which untIl 1991 managed their economies on a continuous war mobilization basis—their economic planners assumed that at no time were they more than 30 days from requiring total mobilization for all-out war. China also, then, but arguably again in the post-Deng era given the strong command structures governing the economy, the pervasive involvement in manufacturing plant by PLA, and the priority accorded to military-strategic planning in the political-economic management of China’s accession to the global stage (I know I’m going to get the rod from YY for writing this, but nonetheless). (And it’s a friendly rod anyway).

    We don’t, and can’t, do “war economy” in the West. What we have is fluctuating, surging-and-fading prioritization of various forms of military-industrial production, depending on the latest prevailing decadal outlook on national strategy and its requirements. It’s not an efficient system, if military readiness is the top priority. But that is the point. In the West, we don’t, and shouldn’t, live as if we were 30 days away from mobilizing for total war. That is a crazy way to live. Not living that way is what has given us access to the wealth and power at our disposal today.

    And it’s better if those who live that way envy our lifestyles and power, and adopt our ways, than if we envy and adopt theirs.

  22. 22.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: Totally agree. Tatarigami’s data-driven style is usually on the mark, but today is a bulls-eye.

    Replenishing personnel and restoring lost equipment is in no way equivalent to “reconstitution.” That would require a multi-year (probably decadal) process to redesign the RuAF, provision manpower and training, and procurement, and logistics, in a rational manner for a totally redesigned mission—Russia’s strategic environment has changed dramatically since 2021, with implications that go far beyond Ukraine.

    This process cannot be accelerated much (if at all) in the middle of a hot war. So the new resources generated by the Russians to cope with their self-inflicted war emergency are patches on their existing, poorly-adapted system. Describing this as “reconstitution” is a serious misreading of what has happened.

  24. 24.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: The PRC is not running a “war economy” now. It is spending less on the military as a percentage of GDP (1.5% by official figures & ~ 1.7 – 1.9% as estimated by SIPRI) than most of the Western countries. Its advantages in weapons manufacturing come from vast economy of scale, deep vertical integration of the entire supply chain (developed partly by necessity due to Western weapons embargo post-’89), and are downstream of the PRC’s extremely high degree of industrialization. The PRC manufacturing sector, both gross & in terms of value added, is nearly that of the US & the EU combined (alternatively, greater than that of the US, Germany, Japan & South Korea combined). The PRC defense industry is able to draw from the broad & deep civilian & dual use industries. Despite the impressive military modernization program dating back to the early aughts, the PRC is not engaged in the kind of crash course military build up & militarization of the economy that Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan & the USSR did in the 1930s.

    The Western defense industries have consolidated into oligopolies that no longer benefit from meaningful market competition, the procurement processes have been broken since the late 90s & thus not subject to the discipline of hard budget constraints, & the deep entrenched MIC interests & their incenstuous relationship w/ government make reform extremely difficult. While there are huge corruption issues w/ the PRC MIC, I would argue it is actually worse in the US, only corruption here has been legalized.

    The West does not need to run their overall economies at war footing, but sectors of their defense industries should.

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