Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Lick the third rail, it tastes like chocolate!

Even though I know this is a bad idea, I’m off to do it anyway!

These days, even the boring Republicans are nuts.

If you voted for Trump, you don’t get to speak about ethics, morals, or rule of law.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

The arc of the moral universe doesn’t bend itself. it’s up to us.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the gop

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

Democrats are back in array!

🎶 Those boots were made for mockin’ 🎵

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

The republican speaker is a slippery little devil.

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

“When somebody takes the time to draw up a playbook, they’re gonna use it.”

Second rate reporter says what?

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 781: A Brief(ish) Sunday Night Update

War for Ukraine Day 781: A Brief(ish) Sunday Night Update

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Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

I chose not to do an update on Israel and Iran because there’s not much to say. The US assembled a coalition with the British, French, Jordanians, and Saudis to either take down Iranian drones and missiles that were overflying their airspaces (the Jordanians and Saudis) or to just shoot them down en route regardless of whose air space they were in (the US, Britain, and France). There was only one Israeli casualty – a 7 year old Bedouin girl was injured and is being treated in an Israel hospital – and minimal damage to the bases in the Golan and the Negev. President Biden apparently got Bibi to not immediately retaliate, thereby lowering the temperature. At the same time he laid it on thick telling Bibi that this was a huge victory for Israel, demonstrated how Israel can defend itself, and that Bibi should take the win. The reality is that had the US and the coalition the Biden administration had not quickly put together interceded, we have no idea whether Israel’s air defense and missile defense would have been effective enough. Because of the intervention of the US led coalition, we don’t really know how effective the David’s Arrow and David’s sling missile defense systems are.

Ukraine condemns Iran’s attack on Israel using “Shahed” drones and missiles. We in Ukraine know very well the horror of similar attacks by Russia, which uses the same “Shahed” drones and Russian missiles, the same tactics of mass air strikes.

Every effort must be made to prevent a further escalation in the Middle East. Iran’s actions threaten the entire region and the world, just as Russia’s actions threaten a larger conflict, and the obvious collaboration between the two regimes in spreading terror must face a resolute and united response from the world.

The sound of “Shahed” drones, a tool of terror, is the same in the skies over the Middle East and Europe. This sound must serve as a wake-up call to the free world, demonstrating that only our unity and resoluteness can save lives and prevent the spread of terror worldwide.

The world cannot wait for discussions to go on. Words do not stop drones and do not intercept missiles. Only tangible assistance does. The assistance we are anticipating. We must strengthen security and resolutely counter all those who want to make terror a new normal.

It is critical that the United States Congress make the necessary decisions to strengthen America’s allies at this critical time.

 

We do know that modern fighter jets are a necessary component of anti-drone and anti-missile defense. While they already knew this, the Ukrainians have again taken note of this reality. And that at the end of the day, despite all the rhetoric, they are on their own. No one is going to launch fighters to intercept inbound drones and missiles targeting Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure. And because the Biden administration dithered, hemmed, hawed, and let Putin have a say in their deliberations, the Ukrainians are still month’s away from getting F-16s. Israel does something strategically stupid and it gets all the help it needs. Ukraine fights for its life and gets fuck all.

As of right now, 7:09 PM EDT, the only air raid alerts are the ones over Russian occupied Luhansk and Crimea.

While the US was leading a coalition to defend Israel, the Russians once again bombarded Kharkiv:

Dnipro was also targeted again today. Unfortunately I can’t embed the tweet with video from Iulia Mendel because it is one of the ones that won’t embed because Musk has manipulated the code to target certain types of posts about Ukraine.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Assistance to Ukraine is Still Limited, and Russia Still Has Access to Missile Components – Address by the President

14 April 2024 – 20:39

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

This day, just as every day of this war, began with the results of our defenders of the sky. Last night, they managed to shoot down 10 “Shahed” drones out of 10 used by the Russians. I am grateful to all our warriors of the mobile firing groups and all other defenders of the sky. In total, Russian terrorists have already used almost 130 “Shahed” drones against Ukraine this week. Fortunately, we managed to shoot down most of them. They also used more than 80 Russian missiles and almost 700 guided aerial bombs. Unfortunately, it is much more difficult to destroy them. And these are the numbers for this one week only.

Today missiles and drones were used again. Dnipro and Nikopol, Pokrovsk and other cities in the Donetsk region, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Sumy regions. There are casualties and, unfortunately, fatalities. My condolences to all those who have lost their loved ones.

Russia uses every day, week and month to inflict significant damage. Unfortunately, assistance to Ukraine is still limited, and the Russian state still has access to critical components needed to produce missiles and drones. Each missile targeting Ukraine contains at least dozens of components – electronics, chips – supplied by companies from other countries and imported through the territory of Russia’s neighbors. The “Shahed” drones also contain components produced in the free world. All of this must and can be stopped: the connivance at terror, the ability of terrorists to seek accomplices around the world, and all forms of Russian terror itself.

Modern aviation proves its effectiveness, modern air defense systems are capable of protecting lives – this was demonstrated in the Middle East when aviation and air defense shot down Iranian missiles and “Shahed” drones aimed at Israel. The whole world sees what real defense is. It sees that it is feasible. And the whole world saw that Israel was not alone in this defense – the threat in the sky was also being eliminated by its allies. And when Ukraine tells its allies that unity provides the best defense, they are already well aware of its effectiveness. They are aware of it and ensure it. And when Ukraine says that its allies should not turn a blind eye to Russian missiles and drones, it means action is needed – a bold one.

It is not rhetoric that protects the sky, it is not opinions that curb the production of missiles and drones for terror. And the fact that sanctions against Russia are still being circumvented, and that we in Ukraine have been waiting for months for a vital support package – that we are still waiting for a vote in Congress – shows that the terrorists’ confidence has been on the rise for months as well. We cannot waste any more time.

Real protection of life must be ensured wherever there is a terrorist threat to it. Everything must be done to prevent evil and wars from spreading across the world – in Europe, the Middle East, or anywhere else. I thank everyone who understands this. Everyone who can protect life must do so. Everyone who can restrict the potential of terror must do so. Ukraine, the Middle East, and all other parts of the world equally deserve a just and lasting peace.

And one more thing. The frontline. The situation at the front in such a fierce war is always tough. But these days – especially in the Donetsk sector – it is aggravating. I am grateful to every brigade, every soldier and commander who are doing everything to defend our positions and who are destroying the occupier. This week, I am especially grateful to the 58th separate motorized infantry brigade, the 68th separate jaeger brigade, and the 148th separate artillery brigade of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces – its warriors are unfailingly effective. And this week was the 148th brigade’s day. My congratulations to you guys, thank you! I am also thankful to the 55th Zaporizhzhia Sich separate artillery brigade. Well done! It is also worth mentioning the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine – the Kraken and Artan units and the 9th Department of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine. I am proud of you!

Glory to all who contribute to Ukraine’s defense against Russian terror! Glory to everyone who makes our country stronger. I thank everyone in the world who helps!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is an interview with Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry Dmytro Kuleba. I have the closed captioning on and set to English:

The price:

Here’s more on how the US is being perceived in Ukraine:

Dipshit, ineffective, self promoting Democratic campaign operatives need to shut the fuck up.

The interception of Iranian missiles and drones by American and British air defense systems over Israel is very showing.

On one side, Russia has been attacking Ukraine for two years using various means, ranging from cruise missiles to gliding bombs and drones, including those supplied by Iran. Despite this, Ukraine stands alone in defending itself against these deadly assaults, with neighboring NATO countries even tolerating Russian provocations with missiles flying into NATO airspace, and no one takes them out.

Meanwhile, the close alliance between Russia and Iran, the “new Axis,” is evident. Yet, targeted strikes against Iran, including its top military figures, are carried out regularly and effectively.

The disparity between Iran and Russia is not vast, except for one crucial aspect: Russia possesses huge nuclear arsenals and frequently employs them in nuclear blackmail. While the West states how it is hesitant to engage in direct conflict with Russia to avoid direct confrontation, it seems more willing to confront Iran.

Concerningly, the West is trembling before Russian nuclear blackmail and will continue being intimidated. And of course, this does not mean that the Americans and the British should have avoided helping Israel (which is not in NATO, like Ukraine), that’s not the point.

No, the issue is that Ukraine’s so-called allies have to be begged to provide defence to protect the vital energy infrastructure, while to others, the aid is handed out without any hesitation.

Speaking of the Starlink Snowflake, the Russian neo-NAZIs are very fond of him:

Chasiv Yar:

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi says Russia set a goal of capturing Chasiv Yar by 9 May (“Victory Day” in Russia), in line with the future targets of reaching Kramatorks agglomeration (where Ukrainian Eastern HQ is located).

Full message:

“I worked in another, very important and dangerous direction.

The enemy is also concentrating efforts to break through our defenses west of Bakhmut, to reach the Siverskyi Donets – Donbas canal, capture the settlement of Chasiv Yar, and create conditions for further advance to the Kramatorsk agglomeration.

The implementation of the enemy’s plans is hindered by the heroic defense of our brigades, which literally dug into the ground, holding back the enemy’s daily attacks. Using numerical superiority and various motivational factors, including shootings [of their own], separate groups of enemy infantry reached the “Noviy” district, but were destroyed by FPV-kamikaze strikes and artillery fire.

At the same time, the threat remains relevant, taking into account the fact that the higher Russian military leadership has set the task for its troops to capture Chasiv Yar by May 9.

In order to respond adequately to the actions of the enemy and strengthen the defense of our troops in this direction, measures were taken to significantly strengthen the brigades with ammunition, drones, and EW devices.

The main conclusion from the two-day work at the front is the need to improve the quality of training, including the moral and psychological component, to increase the number of high-tech unmanned systems of various purposes with trained operators, to improve the quality of conducting asymmetric operations in order to reduce the combat potential of the enemy.

We continue to carry out organisational activities with an emphasis on increasing the efficiency of management, eliminating duplication, directing freed resources to support combat units and units.

The main task of these measures is to increase the fighting capacity of our troops, save the lives of our soldiers, disrupt the enemy’s plans, and ensure the preparation of reserves.

The fight continues!
Glory to Ukraine!”

https://t.me/osirskiy/652

Novomykhailivka:

Antonivka Village:

 

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

No new Patron tweets tonight and I’m saving the video for tomorrow. So here’s some adjacent material:

Please watch this story of Rex the dog.

His home was ruined by Russian shelling, and Rex was trapped inside by the debris. Rex’s owner was injured, his daughter took him to the hospital (the ambulance couldn’t get there because the shelling was that intense).

Volunteers rescued Rex and brought him to Kharkiv.

Rex’s owners kept looking for him, and finally, they were reunited.

Reader Interactions

63Comments

  1. 1.

    Gin & Tonic

    Israel does something strategically stupid and it gets all the help it needs. Ukraine fights for its life and gets fuck all.

    Amen, brother.

  3. 3.

    dc

    Why can’t the US and Euro allies do the same for Ukraine? And I mean shoot down missiles and drones as they enter Ukrainian territory. Perhaps, the regions closest to the borders with Russia and Belarus would be too risky, but for actions inside Ukraine, the U.S. and other nations would not be at war with Russia just as the U.S., Britain, Jordan, etc. are not at war with Iran despite having shot down their missiles and drones.

  5. 5.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Seems like the Biden Administration conducted some very effective crisis management (along w/ Iranian rationality) to help prevent the tit for tat between Israel & Iran from blowing up into a high intensity regional war. From Susan DiMaggio of the Carnegie Endowment:

    Suzanne DiMaggio
    @suzannedimaggio
    Official and unofficial US-Iran back channel diplomacy since the Damascus strike on April 1 helped to prevent this crisis from spiraling out of control.
    Consistent messaging across multiple channels clarified each side’s thinking, spelling out intentions and redlines. 1/
    Early on the US made clear that it was not involved in the strike. Iran informed the US that retaliatory measures were inevitable, relaying the nature and scope of the response over time. 2/
    While urging restraint, a clear redline for the US was no targeting of US forces or facilities. For Iran, a redline was no direct US involvement in any response by Israel. Biden telling Netanyahu the US will not participate in any offensive operations against Iran is notable. 3/
    Both sides communicated they are not seeking a direct conflict or a wider regional war — a consistent message since Oct 7. Both continue to stress reducing tensions while signaling an interest in resuming de-escalation efforts initiated after the Tower 22 incident in Jordan. 4/
    There are some parallels to Iran’s response to the killing of Soleimani. A catastrophic escalation has now been avoided twice — at least for now in the case of this latest episode. We might not be so lucky next time. 5/5

    It appears that Iran telegraphed the retaliatory barrage well in advance. Not sure if Iran intended for the retaliation to do so little damage, but it seems that Iran does want to deescalate & is not interested in waging a high intensity regional war.

    Now things hinge on Bibi’s rationality (& that of the War Cabinet). My fear is that parts of the Israeli & US natsec establishment instead conclude that Iran is impotent to retaliate meaningfully to attacks, & want to push more & more. The last line is very much operative.

  7. 7.

    Adam L Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: This is the best description of the strategic stupidity that led to last night.

    The destruction of an entire building in Syria’s capital on April 1 was impressively precise. Whoever fired missiles at Iran’s consular offices in Damascus—and anyone with an iota of experience knows it was Israel’s air force—wanted to destroy that edifice and kill whoever was inside. Then came the information, from Iran’s government itself, that among the dead was the vice commander of the Quds Force, the multinational spearhead of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), along with senior officers who coordinated Iran’s activities in Syria and Lebanon.

    No one claimed responsibility, but sources in Israeli intelligence tell us that IRGC Brigadier-General Mohammed Reza Zahedi was tracked by the Mossad and by Aman, Israel’s technology-driven military intelligence agency, for years. And when Israel’s spies were certain of where he was, and whom he was with, they immediately wanted to take the shot. They had to get Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s approval, and despite all the current pressures on Israel, he readily agreed.

    That was a mistake. It was the right action, perhaps, but at the wrong time.

    A fresh round of panic was the last thing that the people of Israel needed, half a year after the Hamas attack of last October 7 with its massacres and the kidnapping of over 200 hostages. Netanyahu probably saw flattening an Iranian building in Syria as part of restoring Israel’s deterrence—meaning its ability to intimidate its hostile neighbors. But, as is typical of Israel’s longest serving prime minister, Netanyahu’s main concern was his own image. He wants to look bold, in the wake of a security and intelligence failure for which he must share the blame. He hasn’t stopped playing politics for a second, since the trauma of the worst attack on Jews since the Nazi Holocaust, and every hour of every day he is seeking to reverse his vulnerable political fortune.

    Against this background is a long-standing strategy of the Mossad and other Israeli security agencies: targeted assassinations. It was a Pavlovian reaction when the spies locked on to Brigadier General Zahedi’s precise location. We found him—let’s kill him.

    Much, much more at the link.

  8. 8.

    japa21

    @YY_Sima Qian:  Iran not only telegraphed it, but Iran also knew it would be highly ineffective.  But they could tell its people that they did something.  Not doing anything was out of the question for them.

    Counting on Bibi to be rational is another story.

    What has bothered me the most is the media’s reaction in this country.  I have heard Iran’s attack to be unprovoked, unwarranted, and something it is almost necessary for Israel to react to.  And that’s mild compared to what Republicans are calling for.

  9. 9.

    Gary K

    While we’re condemning Trump and Johnson, please spare a thought for my Senator Neville J.D. Vance.

  10. 10.

    Nukular Biskits

    This paragraph. All of it [emphasis mine]:

    We do know that modern fighter jets are a necessary component of anti-drone and anti-missile defense. While they already knew this, the Ukrainians have again taken note of this reality. And that at the end of the day, despite all the rhetoric, they are on their own. No one is going to launch fighters to intercept inbound drones and missiles targeting Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure. And because the Biden administration dithered, hemmed, hawed, and let Putin have a say in their deliberations, the Ukrainians are still month’s away from getting F-16s. Israel does something strategically stupid and it gets all the help it needs. Ukraine fights for its life and gets fuck all.

  11. 11.

    New Deal democrat

    @YY_Sima Qian: Unfortunately the jury is still out on whether the Israel-Iran confrontation will remain contained.

    Kevin Drum wrote this morning that Iran could hardly have telegraphed more that the raid was designed to be face saving and inflict only minimal damage, had it written it across the moon.

    But will Israel be satisfied, or is Israel itching to expand this conflict by, e.g., attacking Iran’s nuclear program? If Israel does retaliate, all bets about containment are off. And the original attack in Damascus, as well as the attack on World Kitchen, sound like a strategy of going for broke.

    At this point, does Netanyahu think that his only strategy for remaining in office is to accomplish a final solution to the Palestinian issue, and vanquish Hezbollah and Iran as well?

  13. 13.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Thanks for the link! “Pavlovian response” is a good way to phrase it. All tactics, no strategy, since 1982! (Excepting a fleeting moment of clarity & hope in the early 90s, until Rabin’s  assassination.)

    However, the US & the West has continuous bailed out Israel from its strategic stupidity, even at the cost of their own international standing & undermining the very “rules based international order” that they espouse in the process. Just like the US/UK/France did again in the latest crisis. So why would anything change

    If Iran had not telegraphed the retaliation for 2 weeks, allowing Israeli & Gulf State/Jordanian AD to go on high alert, & for US/UK/France to shift air & naval assets into position to counter the drone & ballistic missiles, things could’ve turned out different. As it is, I think Iran might have more MRBMs it can throw at Israel than Israel has interceptors.

  14. 14.

    ColoradoGuy

    @Nukular Biskits: Yes, it is impressive that Biden and his staff created a coalition in a matter of hours, complete with rules of engagement and tactical co-ordination between different forces from different countries. That’s a lot of work done very fast, and from what we hear, was impressively efficient in stopping the Iranian drones and missiles.

    Meanwhile, F-16’s for Ukraine are months away. NATO-caliber 155mm shells are nowhere to be seen. Factories are still “ramping up”, whatever that means. Papers lie on desks, unread, and many committee meetings are held with no action taken. KGB/FSB spies control the leadership of the Republican Party while the FBI takes no action, just sort of thinks about it and moves on.

  15. 15.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @ColoradoGuy: The coordination took weeks, which is how long Iran gave warning for. It took that long for USN Burke DDGs to be placed in position to bolster ballistic missile defense, & for the RAF to send additional fighters to Cyprus to help shoot down the drones.

  16. 16.

    Gvg

    There are some big differences between the 2 conflicts.

    The Israeli conflicts with the Palestinians, Hamas and other extreme elements is of long running wound that the US has experience and connections to deal with. We have more rational Allie’s in the mid east than Israel. And the extra enemy, Iran, is more rational than Russia, or at least they make decisions based on strong facts not egotistical fantasy. We also have actual legal treaties with Israel.

    Ukraine we do not have legally binding treaties with and in fact we have the NATO rules that we can’t admit someone already in a territorial dispute. This rule seemed sensible at the time. Russia has been taking advantage of it, but I don’t know how to make a better rule because I can see why the rule was made.

    Russia has nukes. They aren’t acting very intelligently and we have a history of misreading them anyway.

    Adam has argued that they have always been imperialistic and the population doesn’t want to give up their dreams. That means to really stop them may call for a lot more than just helping Ukraine. No one wants to start a full on war with Russia with offense as well as defense. How exactly can Ukraine win only doing defense? It’s not just Biden who isn’t wanting to go on Offense. Against a nuclear power, how?
    well for now we just need to help Ukraine but think about what’s next.

  17. 17.

    davek319

    @Gin & Tonic: my whole fuckin ass is boiling mad. Ukrainians running out of bullets while West Wing For the Gerontocracy and Fascism By Toddlers buck, caw and gurgle at each other like chickens in a pen. Polls show the majority of Americans support Ukraine and understand the Russian threat. Why isn’t majority rule even a thing here, Joe? Everything for zionist fascists of apartheid and nothing for Ukrainian warfighters who toil like Hercules for the right to self-determination and to live free against the Russian menace? We used to say we would always stand up for that struggle, Joe. We sure showed we meant it when the smoke cleared in 1945.

  19. 19.

    Gvg

    @ColoradoGuy: I think the factories taking months and years to ramp up both in the US and EU is more significant than people think. Covid showed us all that we had outsourced too many things too far away for business reasons that are unwise in a crisis. I already suspected that.

    This is showing that the US is no longer the industrial power we were during the World Wars. Our steel factories and actual manufacturing are not in this country, and we don’t have the trained work force either. Biden’s union support and infrastructure support are VERY important to our long term stability. But I think we have more to do than most people realize. Boeing falling apart is also really bad news and related. Anyway, it’s taking longer to do things like increase ammo manufacturing than people think it should. Have to keep going though.

    I have heard or read that that is also happening in the EU. They want to produce more, but it’s harder than they thought…

  20. 20.

    Jay

    @Gvg:

    Russia has nukes. They aren’t acting very intelligently and we have a history of misreading them anyway.

    ruZZia has threatened to use nukes 87 times since 2009 if one of their “red lines” is crossed. Those “red lines” have been crossed 87 times.

    Funny thing, no nukes.

    Adam has argued that they have always been imperialistic and the population doesn’t want to give up their dreams. That means to really stop them may call for a lot more than just helping Ukraine. No one wants to start a full on war with Russia with offense as well as defense. How exactly can Ukraine win only doing defense? It’s not just Biden who isn’t wanting to go on Offense. Against a nuclear power, how?
    well for now we just need to help Ukraine but think about what’s next.

    Just give Ukraine what they need to win back the Occupied Territories and enforce a 150km “DMZ” along their borders with ruZZia and Belarus, let ruZZia and Belarus stew in their own rot. Tighten up the sanctions and seizures.

    Crack down on EU countries like Malta, which is still selling EU passports and citizenships to Putin’s cronies.

    What happens after is a ruZZian problem.

  21. 21.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @New Deal democrat: Remarkably, Iran has exercised strategic patience in response to the assassinations of Soleimani & its nuclear scientists, & to the strike against the consulate in Damascus, knowing that it would lose a conventional confrontation w/ Israel + the US, however much damage it could inflict. It’s interesting to ponder, that Iran is able to exercise such patience even though the regime is on thin ice domestically. [I thought Iran selling the Shahed drones to Russia to support its aggression against Ukraine was strategic malpractice, but it has not paid any price, has it?] If I am part of the Israeli or American natsec establishment, I would find such strategic patience frightening, but some seem to want to interpret it as impotence.

    I suspect Iran will continue its asymmetric war against Israel, leveraging its proxies in Iraq, Syria & Lebanon. It might also dial up the economic warfare, heightening the threat to Israel-related shipping in the Red Sea, expand to the Arabian Sea & the Strait of Hormuz, & further enable its Houthi allies to harass Israeli ports.

    I think Adam was right in yesterday’s comments that the IDF is out of Schlitz to expand conventional war to Southern Lebanon, but I am not sure if Bibi & the War Cabinet understand that reality. The IDF started withdrawing the bulk of its forces in Gaza since Feb., at the expense of consolidating its tactical gains there, precisely to prepare for an invasion into Southern Lebanon (& also relieving the economic burden of mass mobilization in the short term). Most of the Israeli reservists interviewed in Israeli media in recent months seem to expect to be called up for war in the north by year’s end. The Israeli government has been screaming to the US to help replenish its depleted aerial bomb & artillery shell stock for such an invasion, which the Biden Administration has thus far obliged w/o conditions.

    If Bibi & the War Cabinet does expand the war to the north, it will not only break the IDF, but likely the Israeli economy, too.

  23. 23.

    Jay

    Anton Gerashchenko
    @Gerashchenko_en
    Apr 13
    Feng Yujun, one of the China’s leading Russianists and a professor at Peking University: Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine – The Economist

    Four reasons why Russian Federation will lose to Ukraine, according to Feng Yujun:

    🔹 The first is the level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians, which has until now been extraordinary.

    🔹 The second is international support for Ukraine, which, though recently falling short of the country’s expectations, remains broad.

    🔹 The third factor is the nature of modern warfare, a contest that turns on a combination of industrial might and command, control, communications and intelligence systems. One reason Russia has struggled in this war is that it is yet to recover from the dramatic deindustrialisation it suffered after the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

    🔹 The final factor is information. When it comes to decision-making, Vladimir Putin is trapped in an information cocoon, thanks to his having been in power so long. The Russian president and his national-security team lack access to accurate intelligence. The system they operate lacks an efficient mechanism for correcting errors. Their Ukrainian counterparts are more flexible and effective.

    His conclusion is as follows:

    🔸 Russia will be forced to withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea.

    🔸 Russia’s nuclear capability is no guarantee of success. Feng Yujun gives the example of the United States, which left Vietnam, Korea, and Afghanistan with no less nuclear potential than the Russian Federation has today.

    🔸 Kyiv has proven that Moscow is not invincible, so a ceasefire under the “Korean” scenario is ruled out.

    🔸 The war is a turning-point for Russia. It has consigned Putin’s regime to broad international isolation. He has also had to deal with difficult domestic political undercurrents, from the rebellion by the mercenaries of the Wagner Group and other pockets of the military — for instance in Belgorod — to ethnic tensions in several Russian regions and the recent terrorist attack in Moscow. These show that political risk in Russia is very high. Mr Putin may recently have been re-elected, but he faces all kinds of possible black-swan events.

    🔸 After the war, Ukraine will have the chance join both the EU and NATO, while Russia will lose its former Soviet republics because they see Putin’s aggression there as a threat to their sovereignty and territorial integrity.

    According to Feng Yujun, the war, meanwhile, has made Europe wake up to the enormous threat that Russia’s military aggression poses to the continent’s security and the international order, bringing post-cold-war EU-Russia detente to an end. Many European countries have given up their illusions about Mr Putin’s Russia.

    Source: economist.com/by-invitation/…

  25. 25.

    trollhattan

    Rex! Dad had a GSD Rex, so extra heartstrings tugged just then. Bless those folks for finding and freeing him.

    Lord deliver us from evil. Ukraine could use a frickin’ break, as could the world at large.

  28. 28.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: Chinese scholars such as Feng are not that influential in the policymaking by the CPC leadership, though they may have some influence w/ parts of the bureaucracy. Chinese scholars also still retain some space to deviate from the official line, which Feng is certainly doing here. That space may expand or contract given the larger domestic political & geopolitical circumstances, & depending on subject. I do think it is notable that Chinese scholars who made similar arguments in 2022 were suppressed by the bureaucracy, but Feng has not bee told to be quiet by Peking University, & the CPC censors has not allowed him to be pilloried b Chinese ultranationalists online. OTOH, Feng’s comments have not been allowed to spread domestically, either.

    I think Feng’s analysis is largely correct, although I do not share his optimism that Russia will eventually withdraw from all of Ukraine’s sovereign territories. I think Ukraine will have to retake them by force. Even if Putin is gone, I expect whichever Russian cabal that replaces him will still want to hold on to Crimea.

  29. 29.

    lashonharangue

    Thanks Adam.  A question about the strike on the Iranian embassy.  I thought Bibi was now one of three in a war cabinet. Would the others have had to agree or is this check on his decisions limited only to Gaza?

  30. 30.

    Chris

    Have said from the start that never mind how it’s perceived in the Middle East, the U.S.’s precipitous rush to bearhug Israel (literally, thanks Joe!) as visibly and superlatively as possible is really hard to imagine being seen in Ukraine as anything but a massive fuck you.

    Which, of course, it is. Only question is how much is deliberate and how much is sheer stupidity.

  31. 31.

    Chris

    @japa21:

    Same. I never read the papers, but I still see the headlines when I go to the store and today’s were “massive attack by Iran on Israel,” natch. No headlines when Israel bombed a consulate, of course.

  32. 32.

    ColoradoGuy

    I want to thank both Adam Silverman and YY_Sima Qian for the superb and in-depth commentary we see here in the Balloon Juice blog. We joke about this being a “nearly top ten-thousand blog”, but I don’t often see anything like this in the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Guardian, or The Economist.

    As for perceptions by Ukrainian leadership, they accurately see the KGB/FSB subversion of a major US political party for what it is. They’ve had first-hand experience of that in their own country.

  33. 33.

    Another Scott

    @Gvg: It takes time, but things are happening.

    Army.mil (from February 8, 2024):

    PICATINNY ARSENAL, N.J. — The U.S. Army, aligned with the Department of Defense’s National Defense Industrial Strategy, is significantly increasing its production capacity of 155mm artillery munitions. This initiative, undertaken by the Joint Program Executive Office Armaments and Ammunitions (JPEO A&A), aims to produce 100,000 155mm artillery projectiles per month by 2025.

    […]

    Since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the United States has provided extensive support to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, where the supply of 155mm Howitzer systems and ammunition remains in high demand. The U.S.’s contribution of over 2 million rounds of artillery has proven pivotal in bolstering Ukrainian defenses and supporting counter-offensive operations.

    In response to the escalating need of ammunition, the JPEO A&A swiftly implemented several measures to increase production early in the conflict. These actions included the introduction of additional shifts, investing in supply chain resilience and targeted facilitation efforts. At present, the U.S. Army is manufacturing 30,000 155mm rounds per month, doubling its previous output of 14,000 rounds prior to the conflict. Moreover, plans are underway to build and commission new production facilities to further expand production capacity.

    […]

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  34. 34.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    I think Feng’s analysis is largely correct, although I do not share his optimism that Russia will eventually withdraw from all of Ukraine’s sovereign territories. I think Ukraine will have to retake them by force. Even if Putin is gone, I expect whichever Russian cabal that replaces him will still want to hold on to Crimea.

    I don’t think he meant “withdrawl” as in “volentary withdrawl”. I think he meant “rapid unscheduled disassembly”, like how the ruZZian’s “strategically withdrew” from Kherson.

  35. 35.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @ColoradoGuy: Thank you for the compliment, but Adam is the expert here, I am decidedly armchair.

    MSM reporting still has its moments, regardless of subject, but the headlines are invariably click baits. I think it is very worthwhile to read more unconventional voices & perspectives (be they academics, think tankers, journalists, or knowledgeable amateurs), which Adam certainly offers. Beware of generalists seeking to grift from the latest geopolitical fad.

  36. 36.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: By referencing, Korea, Vietnam & Afghanistan (both Soviet & US campaigns), I think Feng is envisioning an imperial retrenchment due to exhaustion. Ukraine will need a lot more material aid, not to mention mobilize much more of its manpower, to drive the Russians back across the internationally recognized borders.

  38. 38.

    wjca

    @Jay: It [the war] has consigned Putin’s regime to broad international isolation. He has also had to deal with difficult domestic political undercurrents, from the rebellion by the mercenaries of the Wagner Group and other pockets of the military — for instance in Belgorod — to ethnic tensions in several Russian regions and the recent terrorist attack in Moscow.

    It has also caused tens of thousands of young men, including many of the best and brightest, to leave the country.  (Amazingly, they were not enthused at the prospect of being cannon fodder in a military which frequently has no better idea of how to procede.)  Many will not return, even when Putin is gone.  A country which already had a shrinking population can ill afford their loss.

  40. 40.

    Jay

    @wjca:

    And of course, in the aftermath of the Circus attack, the State has turned it’s baleful eye on the same minorities that it relies on for a big part of it’s meatcube supply.

  41. 41.

    frosty

    @Jay: ​ Correct in concept, but Willow Run was never an automobile factory (Wikipedia). It was built from the grassroots to build bombers. It took from 1940 to 1942 to build it, which basically proves your point. “Ramping up” production takes time.

  42. 42.

    Martin

    @Jay: Indeed, we can do it a lot faster now.

    See, 5 months before the iPhone was to ship, Steve Jobs decided to replace the plastic screen with a glass one. 5 months before production, something like that simply wasn’t done. The engineers at Apple said there was no such glass available that was strong enough to not break. So Jobs called up Cornings CEO and as the CEO recounted back to Apple’s engineerings ‘Jobs says our glass sucks’. Corning had an experimental glass that wasn’t in production because they hadn’t figured out yet how to mass produce it, and that would take a few years. Jobs tells them to get in done in 3 months. It wound up taking 4, and Jobs okays the switch. The first batch of glass is produced and 3 days later, in the middle of the night when it arrives in China, workers are called in to make the first iPhones, a few weeks before it was due to ship to stores. The inspiration for this we’re told is that just before Jobs made that decision 5 months before, he and his team had called up the Foxconn CEO to check in on the state of their new factory – the one that would be making those very phones. They wanted a tour. The Foxconn CEO tried to talk them out of it but they insisted. So they flew to China and the CEO picked them up and they drove out to the site, got out of the car, stood in an empty field, and the CEO said this was the site for the new factory, construction would start in a month. The Apple guys are panicking – Apple was accustomed to a factory taking a year to build, but China was accustomed to it taking a month, so they hadn’t started yet. It was built on time. Apple team got in there to set up production, and it was sitting idle when that first glass arrived. Now, you can say it’s terrible that they would call in workers in the middle of the night to make phones like that, and I won’t argue with you, but when Adam said putting the defense production industry on a war footing approximately 781 days ago, that’s what he meant. Jobs always had that ‘I’m not going to accept your answer’ attitude about him, that wasn’t new, but he also just saw what was possible – at least in China, so when his team said it wasn’t possible, or Cornings CEO said it wasn’t possible, yeah, he wasn’t going to accept that answer. And it turns out, he was right not accept it. It got done, the phones even shipped on time.

    I’m willing to bet that if those Russian munitions were being directed at American soil, we would have ramped up production around 2 orders of magnitude faster. You’d be surprised what we can do when properly motivated.

  43. 43.

    Jay

    @frosty:

    I didn’t want to write a full essay.

    BSA bicycles converted in about a month from making bikes, trikes and carts to BREN Guns and Lee Enfield MKIV’s,

    but they wern’t making bikes, had all the tools needed and skilled labour.

    And a BREN gun or Lee Enfield is quite simpler than say, a M777 howitzer.

    The ramp can be quite a bit faster, but that requires a “War Economy” where the local can factory switches from making cans for food, to smoke grenades.

  45. 45.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Martin: These days, that kind of speed is par for the course as far as the consumer electronics supply chain in the PRC (& the larger E/SE Asian ecosystem) is concerned. Tesla’s Gigafactory in Shanghai was in mass production less than a year from breaking ground, & that kind of speed is now par for the course for New Energy Vehicle industry in the PRC.

    I don’t think the US can actual replicate that kind of speed even at war footing, at least not for a while. Far too much of the human capital for construction, trades, industrial engineering & manufacturing has atrophied & dissipated, & it would take a lot of time to rebuild that human capital. Then there is the issue of the inputs into the manufacturing plants, from the steel that goes into the buildings, to the capital equipment, to the components, most of that will need to be imported. Having parts of the weapons manufacturing  industry on war footing & under close government supervision/regulation can accelerate the process, but I don’t think people should be naive about how daunting it will be to do so in the US of 2024. The US in the late 30s to early 40s dominated global manufacturing, & had an incomparable industrial base to quickly expand from, so a very different place.

    All the more reason to start earlier.

  46. 46.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Tesla’s Gigafactory in Shanghai was in mass production less than a year from breaking ground,

    yeahbut,……. Tesla’s are designed to kill their occupants and pedestrians, not an enemy at range,…..

  47. 47.

    Subsole

    @dc:

    I would imagine the fact that the missiles were crossing various (at least nominally) uninvolved countries’ airspace makes it an easier lift.

    If Russian missiles had to cross Poland to hit Kyiv, I expect getting NATO involved would be easier.

    That is just a random-ass guess on my part. None of this shit makes any sense to me anymore.

  48. 48.

    Subsole

     

     

    @YY_Sima Qian: Do you have sources on that? I have been looking for some kind of concrete estimates regarding how much of Iran’s stocks this attack consumed.

  49. 49.

    Jay

    @Subsole:

    In the previous thread, it was explained.

    Missiles don’t fly in a straight line anymore.

    They fly to preprogrammed waypoints and climb and dive to preprogrammed altitudes to make them harder to track, and harder to shoot down.

    The goal is to swarm. Slower flying drones go out first, then slower missiles, then the faster missiles, all timed despite the routes to arrive at the target at the same time, overwhelming air defense.

    The other thing you want to do, is have them come in from all directions, at once,

    So, some missiles fly over Poland, some Moldova, some Romania.

  51. 51.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Subsole: I have only seen references in Western MSM in recent days, citing unnamed US intelligence, that Iran has an inventory of ~ 3,000 ballistic missiles, spread across SRBMs & MRBMs. It probably has hundreds more of cruise missiles.

    Iranian ballistic missiles are likely to be less capable than Russian Iskanders (in terms of accuracy & terminal maneuver capabilities, many are still liquid fueled), let alone the PLA Rocket Force’s varied arsenal. However, it would still require Patriot PAC3s and Arrow 2/3s to shoot down ballistic missiles. The Iron Dome cannot defend against such threats.

    I think the Iranians can pretty easily overwhelm Israeli ballistic missile defense if Israel cannot rely upon the Gulf States + Jordan (& US Patriot THAAD batteries placed in these countries) to intercept most of the drones & cruise missiles 1st, as well as thin out the incoming ballistic missile barrages a bit. USN destroyers off the Israeli coast can help, too, but they are awkwardly positioned for missiles coming from the East. Even w/ such help, Iran can probably force Israel to empty its missile defense magazine depth over the course of an intense multi-day campaign, & then start to inflict damage on military & particularly civilian targets for a few days before it too runs out of its inventory of ballistic missiles.

    Just my WAG.

  52. 52.

    Martin

    @YY_Sima Qian: We can’t on a massive scale, I agree. Just the industrial engineering will take a decade. But we’re not talking that here – the munitions Ukraine needs most, particularly artillery shells both aren’t that complicated and aren’t that high volume. And we can distribute that load across the country. The US has adequate domestic production, particularly if it’s not forced to compete with imports (can’t make US munitions with imported steel). The US isn’t that atrophied – we’re still at 2.2m tons per week capacity.

  55. 55.

    Subsole

    So if Israel decides to go War of the Cities, what sort of defenses does the Iranian theocracy have (besides some impressively hardened facilities and a scaldingly comprehensive disregard for their citizens’ lives)? I have read they have pretty solid air defenses, but I don’t know if that refers specifically to aircraft, or includes everything else.

    Because if one side has defenses, however imperfect, and the other does not…that is a fire Iran may regret playing wwith. Along with a great many others.

  56. 56.

    Subsole

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Thanks. I have seen photos of debris from the attacks, including what looks like liquid-fuelled motors. So that tracks.

    The next question is how fast can Iran replace its stocks? Because that seems to be a pretty tricky task for everyone these days.

  57. 57.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Subsole: I don’t think Iran has meaningful ballistic missile defense, only a few batteries of the Russian made S-300 SAMs. It appears to have decent air defenses. However, I don’t think the Islamist regime care about defending anything other than their nuclear weapons development sites & their secure bunkers from Israeli attack.

    I also don’t think the IDF can mount a strike campaign against civilian infrastructure in Iran & maintain any kind of international support. Finally, I think the IDF’s ability to mount a sustained air & missile campaign against Iran, at least by itself, is surprising limited. The IAF has very few aerial refueling assets, which really limit its reach. It does not yet have enough of the stealthy F-35s (which in any case have limited range & limited internal carrying capacity) to go into the teeth of Iranian AD. IAF F-16s also suffer from limited range & carrying capacity (more than adequate for Gaza, Lebanon & Syria, not for cross Jordan & Iraq/KSA to reach Iran). Really, only the F-15s in IAF service can really sustain an air campaign.

    The IAF may also need the USAF & USN’s help to suppress Iranian AD if they are to limit losses, which is probably not forthcoming. If Jordan & the KSA refuses IAF overflight, I don’t know how the IAF gets to Iran. I am not sure the IAF wants to brazenly violate the airspaces of the very Sunni states most inclined toward normalizing relations, & certainly the US would probably be against such violations. The Israeli Navy does have sub launched cruise missiles, but their number pales in comparison to the number of targets in Iran that needs to be prosecuted.

    That is why Bibi has been trying very hard to get the US to fight Iran over the years.

    As for Iran’s ability to replenish its missile stock, the ballistic & cruise missiles in its arsenal are not that sophisticated.

  59. 59.

    suzcamoo

    Late, still very, very appreciative to you, Adam, and the information on Iranian, Russian capacities from the comments.

  60. 60.

    wjca

    @Martin: The US has adequate domestic production, particularly if it’s not forced to compete with imports (can’t make US munitions with imported steel).

    One of several protectionist measures that, at minimum, we should be poised to waive any time there is an emergency.  Which this is.

  61. 61.

    Geminid

    @wjca: I’ve read that the two 155mm artillery shell production lines a Turkish company is setting up in Texss will use propellants and explosives imported from Turkiye. This project will probably be discussed some when Turkish President Erdogsn visits Washington mext month, on May 9.

  62. 62.

    Another Scott

    There are occasional mentions in these threads, and elsewhere, about the west trying to restrict export of advance semiconductor lithography tools to adversaries.

    The March issue of IEEE Electron Devices Magazine has a couple of review-ish articles on the development of these tools over the decades.

    E.g. Jan van Schoot from ASML and Winfried Kaizer from Carl Zeiss and Kurt Ronse from IMEC.

    It’s complicated to make tiny circuits!

    (Unfortunately, it looks like these are not Open Access. Perhaps news sites will pick them up and provide excerpts.)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  63. 63.

    Bill Arnold

    Via a Times of Israel daily roundup

    Israel will choose the time and place to respond to this weekend’s Iranian drone and missile attack while working with the United States to build a global and regional alliance against Tehran, says war cabinet Minister Benny Gantz.

    This is a game that the Iranian government often plays; delay responses/revenge/retribution and make the nature of it(them) ambiguous, and observe their enemies’ long span of mild fear.
    If the Israelis play the same ambiguity game here, good, very good. Instant and roughly predictable responses are for those with insect-style minds.

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