(Image by NEIVANMADE)
A quick Rosie update: Today’s chemo session has been pushed back to next week. Nothing major, just one of the two white blood cell counts was a little low – 1,900 instead of 2,000 – and the vet wants to err on the side of caution because Rosie had really strong reactions to the first two rounds of chemo. All the rest of her bloodwork and her EKG were good/normal. Also, the vet said that her lymph nodes have shrunk down 90% to normal. So she’s about 90% in remission after three chemotherapy sessions. She gets this week off and then she’ll have the fourth and final chemo treatment from the first round next Monday.
As I begin writing tonight’s update – at 7:50 PM EDT – the only air raid alerts up over Ukraine are the two over Luhansk and Crimea, which are always up.
Sumy Oblast:
⚡️Russia attacks 11 communities in Sumy Oblast.
Russian forces attacked Sumy Oblast, firing 36 times and causing at least 166 explosions, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported on May 13.https://t.co/83jFKs90dM
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 13, 2024
From The Kyiv Independent:
Russian forces attacked eleven border areas and settlements of Sumy Oblast on May 13, firing 36 times and causing at least 166 explosions, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported.
The communities of Khotin, Yunakivka, Bilopillia, Krasnopillia, Velyka Pysarivka, Putyvl, Esman, Shalyhyne, Seredyna-Buda, Druzhba and Znob-Novgorodske were targeted.
No casualties were reported.
The Russian military struck the communities using artillery fire, multiple launch rocket systems, FPV drones, and mortar shelling, while also dropping mines.
The town of Bilopillia experienced the most attacks, with 42 explosions recorded in the area. Bilopillia, which had a pre-war population of about 15,600 residents, lies just eight kilometers south of the Ukraine-Russia border.
Russian strikes against the Sumy region have become increasingly destructive in recent months. Amid intensified attacks, Ukrainian authorities ordered further evacuations from the region.
Почалась евакуація з іще двох міст на Сумщині https://t.co/cxeHTKoT4z через @ukrpravda_news pic.twitter.com/mo8mei2hR2
— Українська правда ✌️ (@ukrpravda_news) May 13, 2024
Evacuation has begun from two more cities in Sumy Oblast https://pravda.com.ua/news/2024/05/13/7455627/ through @ukrpravda_news
From Ukrainska Pravda:
Evacuation of people from the cities of Bilopillia and Vorozhba has begun in Sumy Oblast.
Source: Sumy Oblast Military Administration
Details: The relevant order was signed by the head of the Sumy Oblast Military Administration (OMA), Volodymyr Artiukh.
Quote: “We have to protect our residents. This is our main task set by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This is not a forced evacuation, but an early voluntary evacuation from those settlements where the number of attacks has significantly increased.”
The residents are currently being notified of the evacuation in the hromadas [a hromada is an administrative unit designating a village, several villages, or a town, and their adjacent territories – ed.].
Residents of Bilopillya and Vorozhba who wish to evacuate, especially families with children, should contact their authorities and heads of hromadas. The evacuated population will be accommodated in places of compact residence in the oblast.
In addition, the evacuation of the population from hromadas within a 5-km zone from the border with Russia, which began in July 2023, continues in the oblast. Residents of 115 border settlements in 15 hromadas in 4 districts of the oblast, which are under constant hostile fire, are eligible for evacuation.
The OMA recalled that from January to April, 40 residents were killed by Russian attacks and airstrikes in Sumy Oblast, and 110 were injured, including 13 children.
Background: Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, reported in his evening address on 13 May that the Russians sent sabotage and reconnaissance groups and launched attacks on Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts.
Kharkiv Oblast:
“Dаmn them to hеll," says an elderly woman, crying, who survived World War II and is now leaving her home in Kharkiv Oblast due to the threat of a second occupation by russian troops and constant shelling.
📹place_kharkiv pic.twitter.com/JuLxIBeplV— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 13, 2024
Russian forces attacked a farm in the town of Korotych, Kharkiv Oblast, with a missile, resulting in the death a 38-year-old man and injuries to four other workers. pic.twitter.com/gul7wOAfWm
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 13, 2024
unfortunately russians entered Buhruvatka in #Kharkiv – #Vovchansk axis and immediately started looting and pillaging local houses.
the biggest issue that I hear from the defenders is that we lack firepower, we don't have enough ammo, and SPGs.
Ofc readiness of the TDF forces… pic.twitter.com/vkHDtwgFbK
— ✙ Constantine ✙ (@Teoyaomiquu) May 13, 2024
unfortunately russians entered Buhruvatka in #Kharkiv – #Vovchansk axis and immediately started looting and pillaging local houses.
the biggest issue that I hear from the defenders is that we lack firepower, we don’t have enough ammo, and SPGs.
Ofc readiness of the TDF forces also played a big role here.
🗺️The geolocation: https://maps.app.goo.gl/cwkAx1S48zyBicSU6
📍50.258105, 36.824445
More on this after the jump.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Our Task is Crystal Clear – to Thwart Russia’s Attempt to Expand the War – Address by the President
13 May 2024 – 19:53
Dear Ukrainians!
Briefly about this day.
First, the reports from the Commander-in-Chief and the Minister of Defense regarding the situation in all the most intense directions. In the Kharkiv region, our counterattacks are ongoing, we’ve provided reinforcement in that area, in particular, in Vovchansk and the border areas in general. Brigadier General Mykhailo Drapatyi is in charge of this direction directly on the ground, and he is provided with the necessary munitions and forces. Now we are getting more and more results, destroying the occupier’s infantry and machinery. I am grateful to all our warriors who are strictly following orders, holding their ground and doing everything to stabilize the situation. At the same time, we understand the enemy’s actions and their plan to divert our forces.
Of course, we do not leave the Donetsk direction without the necessary support and supplies, namely the Kramatorsk and Pokrovsk sectors. Constant attention is paid to the Kupyansk sector. We also observe hostile activity against Sumy and Chernihiv regions – subversive groups and shelling. We are responding with fire, as we should. Our task is crystal clear – to thwart Russia’s attempt to expand the war. The fulfillment of this task depends literally on everyone who is on the ground – from Chernihiv to Vovchansk, from Kharkiv to Donetsk. There must be no safe place for the occupier on the Ukrainian land. As well as in our sky. Today we are thankful for the downing of the Russian Su-25 in the Donetsk region. Guys from the 110th separate mechanized brigade. Well done, guys!
I am also grateful to all the representatives of our regional authorities in the frontline and border regions, to the local communities, and to the employees of the National Police of Ukraine who help, providing evacuation and support under constant Russian attacks. Maximum efforts should be made to ensure that it is the occupier who loses, not us, not Ukrainians.
Second, our international activities. I had a conversation with the Prime Minister of Sweden. I informed him about the situation on the frontline today – about Russian attempts to put more pressure on Ukraine. We discussed the details of the new defense package from Sweden and the possibility of expanding our cooperation. In particular, the financing of weapons production. This includes both projects in Ukraine and joint projects. Sweden can help significantly by investing in this joint production effort. So can Luxembourg – in a conversation with the Prime Minister of Luxembourg today, we touched upon all these opportunities to produce more weapons. I am grateful to our partners for understanding our needs and our prospects – common prospects. Of course, I have invited both leaders – Sweden and Luxembourg – to take part in the Global Peace Summit that we are preparing for June. I am grateful for their consent.
Plus Canada – I have just spoken to the Prime Minister of Canada. Two topics. Defense support, especially with regard to armored vehicles and artillery. We are working on expansion in this area. And today Justin, Mr. Prime Minister, confirmed to me that he will participate in the Peace Summit. Thank you, Justin.
Tomorrow is an equally active day in terms of working with our partners, and this is a joint task for Ukrainian courage and for the promptness of our partners. The effective aid packages are the ones that have been implemented and delivered, they are the weapons in the hands of our warriors. And we ensure our results. Ukrainian results – the ones we all need. And they will definitely come. Thank you to everyone who stands with Ukraine! Glory to all who fight and work for the Ukrainian results!
Glory to Ukraine!
Kharkiv:
Went live on BBC from the evacuation hub in Kharkiv, sharing the pulse of the city amidst the looming Russian threat. People here are resilient, united, and standing strong. pic.twitter.com/WhuRR8fVxF
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 13, 2024
Kharkiv update: Despite heightened attacks, the city keeps calm and managing the situation. Urgent evacuations are on for Vovchansk and Lyptsy residents, dodging relentless shelling to find safety in Kharkiv. Stay strong and support Ukraine 💪🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/Y4QSL3WWih
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 13, 2024
Tatarigami has posted a new assessment regarding Ukrainian fortifications in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast. From the Thread Reader App:
There has been a controversy surrounding the situation in the northern area of Kharkiv Oblast, invaded on May 10th. One of the primary points of contention has been the alleged absence of fortifications. But is it so? 🧵Thread:2/ Given that many of these areas are now under Russian control, sharing some satellite images is appropriate. From these images, you can see fortified and communication trenches in areas near Krasne. Some of these are older Russian positions, while others were built in 20233/ While it’s true that the placement of some of these trenches might appear unconventional at first glance, I refrain from making comments without knowledge of the defense plan for the area. Trenches can serve various purposes – distraction, communication, defenses, etc.4/ As depicted in this image where my team mapped trenches and fortifications, the Krasne-Hlyboke area has entrenched and fortified positions. Conversely, the Vovchansk area appears to be much less fortified in comparison.5/ Some of these positions were abandoned, allowing Russian forces to occupy them. The issue here does not solely lie in fortifications, as the outcome in both the more fortified area near Hlyboke and the less fortified area near Vovchansk appears to be the same6/ The attack was not unexpected: HUR representative Andriy Yusov stated that the enemy’s actions began according to a known schedule that had been communicated to authorities, leadership, and command. My team has publicly reported about dispersed units along the border as well7/ Given the current lack of information, it’s too early to draw definitive conclusions. However, the abandonment of positions and advancement beyond the grey zone indicates brigade leadership’s and the strategic command’s inability to react to threats despite having intel8/ This is the result of systematic issues stemming from a lack of understanding of brigade capabilities and readiness, along with problems in personnel training, leading to an inability to effectively position and allocate resources when needed.9/ The delayed aid from the West, particularly in terms of artillery and artillery shells, is indeed contributing to the problem. However, this issue is not the core problem in this case, and blaming the West for it is counter-productive.10/ Thank you for reading. Please consider liking and sharing this to help increase visibility. If you would like to support us, you can find more information in this post:
DSF
Donetsk Oblast:
Another one!
Ukrainian warriors destroyed a russian Su-25 jet in the Donetsk region.
There is no place for russian scrap metal in Ukrainian skies. pic.twitter.com/V9U4ieyIAm— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 13, 2024
⚡️ Ukraine downs second Russian aircraft over past day.
Ukraine's 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade shot down another Russian Su-25 fighter jet, the unit said on May 13.https://t.co/e8o3GGsn7j
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 13, 2024
The Kyiv Independent has the details:
Ukraine’s 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade shot down another Russian Su-25 fighter jet, the unit said on May 13.
The 47th Mechanized Brigade reported earlier in the day that it had downed a Russian Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter.
The 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade has downed three Russian planes in the past two weeks. The brigade struck two other Su-25s on May 4 and May 11.
The unit did not specify where the aircraft was downed, but the brigade is known to be operating toward Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast.
The Su-25 is used to provide close air support for Russian troops on the ground, helping them carry out intense attacks in multiple sections of the eastern front, which covers much of Donetsk Oblast.
Russia’s total losses during the all-out war amount to about 677 aircraft, including 351 planes and 326 helicopters, according to Ukraine’s General Staff. The General Staff’s figure could not be independently verified.
Kreminna front:
Ukrainian artillery repelled another russian attack and destroyed 5 tanks and 5 IFVs in the Kreminna direction.
Cluster munitions do their job well.📹: 63rd Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/kWUHuRW8qg
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 13, 2024
/2. Additional footages of the aftermath of the Russian attack on Ukrainian positions near Torske. Kreminna front. pic.twitter.com/wTohAXBiDa
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 13, 2024
Yesterday there was a big Russian attack attempt on the Ukrainian positions near Torske, Kreminna front. Deepstate regarding the Russian attack:
“Fighters of the 63rd Brigade shared footage of repelling the Russian assault east of Torske
After a certain pause, Russians once again gathered forces for an assault, which is commonplace in that area. Russians made several attempts to break through during the day, using a total of 10 AFVs with infantry. The morning assault began with 3 BMP and two tanks, but the Defense Forces of Ukraine effectively met the enemy with fire and broke all plans of attack.
Interestingly, Russians equipped all the AFVs with EW systems and drone jammers, but our fighters arranged a surprise, where “American democracy” came to meet the bastards. It is worth noting the work of the gunners, who worked diligently, burning the IFVs with the infantry.”
/2. Additional footages of the Russian attack on the Kreminna front. Video also shows that T-90M were used during the attack. https://t.co/IQngjTgSEI
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 13, 2024
Avdiivka front:
New week—new destroyed russian aircraft.
The warriors from the 47th Mechanized Brigade shot down a russian Ka-52 "Alligator" attack helicopter in the Avdiivka direction. The Ka-52's unit cost is approximately $16 million.
Great work, warriors! pic.twitter.com/wspJ3aBMBM
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 13, 2024
Fireworks in the Avdiivka direction.
It was a russian tank, fully loaded with ammunition.📹: 47th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/sOkppwQON8
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 13, 2024
Klishiivka:
WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC IMAGERY/VIDEO!! WARNING!! WARNING!!
A hero that would probably receive a medal of honor if he was an American.
An absolute hero soldier defending against 4 russian invaders at point blank range, balls of steel.
My friend shared this absolutely amazing video today with me.
This is 5th National Guard Brigade… pic.twitter.com/D0HX3s4iIu
— ✙ Constantine ✙ (@Teoyaomiquu) May 13, 2024
A hero that would probably receive a medal of honor if he was an American.
An absolute hero soldier defending against 4 russian invaders at point blank range, balls of steel.
My friend shared this absolutely amazing video today with me.
This is 5th National Guard Brigade fighting around Klishiivka. I hope he is alive and was rotated safely.
I was told that today in this assault russians lost around 50 men in total.
ALL CLEAR!!!!
Sorokyne, Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:
An ammunition and weapons depot in Russian-occupied Sorokyne, Luhansk Region, was struck. Secondary explosions can be heard.
Sorokyne is around 120 km (75 miles) from the current frontline.
Source: Telegram / Obstanovkalnr and Censor_net pic.twitter.com/UUAb5AvNbv
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) May 13, 2024
/1. Strike on Russian ammunition depot in Sorokyne, Luhansk region is reported. Locals can hear secondary explosions. 130km from the frontline. pic.twitter.com/RjFKg7AlGq
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 13, 2024
/3. Videos of explosions on Russian ammunition storage in Sorokyne pic.twitter.com/ZdnSYhM8EC
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 13, 2024
Russian occupied Crimea:
Claimed hits on the Russian radar site on the mountain Ai-Petri, Crimea. As a result of this mornings Storm Shadow/SCALP strikes. The fact of the attack is confirmed by Russian sources as well, however the targeted locations and damage is not mentioned. Some media claims:… pic.twitter.com/YZy8tbiOKO
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 13, 2024
Claimed hits on the Russian radar site on the mountain Ai-Petri, Crimea. As a result of this mornings Storm Shadow/SCALP strikes. The fact of the attack is confirmed by Russian sources as well, however the targeted locations and damage is not mentioned. Some media claims:
“Russian air defense military base on Mount Ai-Petri was damaged as a result of the morning missile attack on Crimea. The commander of the military unit died
Today, May 13, at around 6 am, several missiles (presumably Storm Shadow) attacked military unit 85683 on Ai-Petri in Crimea, On the mountain there is a military air defense base of the 3rd Radio Engineering Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces.
As a result of the missile hit, the territory of the military unit was damaged, the commander of military unit 85683, Alexander Kulakov, and another serviceman were killed. There are also wounded, their number is being determined.”
(44.4845306, 34.0297396)
Last night in comments, in response to what I wrote in the actual update (the quoted bit), Andrya asked:
They also need to develop policies and strategies to be able to overcome the United States entering the war on the side of Russia if Trump is reelected.
Adam- Yikes! I had expected TIFG, if he was (G-d forbid) reelected, would utterly abandon Ukraine, including lifting all sanctions- is that what you mean by entering the war on the russian side? I cannot bring myself to believe that he would send russia weapons- or even US troops? Please explain, my hair is on fire!
Trump blames Zelenskyy in specific and Ukraine in general because Zelenskyy refused to be shaken down by Trump and his surrogates like Rudy Giuliani to fabricate dirt against Biden. It is also well documented that Trump believes in getting even, no matter how small the slight. The people – they’re actually all men – whose names are being floated as the most likely to be nominated for Secretary of Defense, Secretary of State, Director of National Intelligence, and/or National Security Advisor are all pro-Putin and anti-Ukraine. We’re talking Mike Flynn, Rick Grennell, Douglas MacGregor, and Kash Patel among others. MacGregor, amazingly, makes Flynn look sane. Regardless, we already know that Flynn is beholden to Putin. Grennell is tightly tied to the neo-fascist movements and parties in Europe that Putin is funding overtly and covertly. I fully expect that if Trump is elected, and he’s got about the same 30% chance he had in 2016 and 2020, then not only will the US cut off Ukraine, but Trump will actively take Russia’s side in the conflict and use all the elements of the US’s national power to help Putin achieve a favorable outcome.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets, but here is some adjacent material:
Amidst the chaos of evacuation, humanity is striking. Melania, a resident of Lyptsi, took hers and her neighbors' dogs to safety. Together they find refuge, receiving essential aid and care at the meet-up point pic.twitter.com/JvNHDKmPsH
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 13, 2024
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns
Open thread!
Noskilz
Good to hear Rosie is doing fairly well..
What do you make of Shoigu getting replaced?
Adam L Silverman
@Noskilz: I wrote about it in last night’s update:
What I’ve seen today confirms my initial take. Patrushev, even if he’s given another appointment, has been iced out. Most likely because Putin was worried about him and is trying to coup proof himself.
Adam L Silverman
I’m going to get cleaned up and rack out. Catch everyone on the flip.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Give Rosie lot’s of scooches and kisses from us.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1790004384232796371#m
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re welcome. And will do.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/wartranslated/status/1790001330821411218#m
https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1789963310193913942#m
Jay
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhfGspOIg24
From Perun.
West of the Rockies
OT. but I just read a story on Salon about what to expect if Trump loses in November. An ad for adult diapers came up featuring a dude. Are advertisers smelling (pun intended) a niche market of Trump-supporting readers?
Jay
@West of the Rockies:
nope,
Algorithms are smelling (pun intended) a niche market of Trump-supporting readers.
Bupalos
@Adam L Silverman: Russia experts Vlad Vexler and Marc Galleotti consider this to be a sidelining of Shoigu and generally sideways moves otherwise that are about further militarization of the Russian economy.
vexler went so far as to say this is Prigozin posthumously winning his conflict with shoigu.
Bupalos
“and he’s got about the same 30% chance he had in 2016 and 2020,“
Any kind of precise odds are a fool’s errand. But it would seem he’s in a better position now than in 2020 or 2016, and I can’t see a good argument for pegging his chances below 50%
Another Scott
An interesting, to me anyway, new article at TheBulletin.org – Formal risk assessments and nuclear arms control: exploring the value of modern methodologies:
They acknowledge that many of the probabilities are unknowable, and the players are not machines but are complex animals with emotions and biases and all the rest, but I think they make a good case that just the act of trying to figure out the decision tree for “what happens if this happens, and what are the range of possible consequences” is worth investigating as a tool to go with the traditional approach to negotiations – to figure out what dangers should be attacked first in a proposed agreement.
Cheers,
Scott.
Andrya
Thanks so much for the reply. It makes total sense, though I can’t say it lifted my spirits.
Gin & Tonic
@Andrya:
Adam is absolutely correct – those guys, Flynn, MacGregor, Grennell, are actively pro-Putin. If I were in charge, I’d recall Flynn and MacGregor to active duty and court-martial them.
Lyrebird
Hear, hear!
Wish we had a comparable remedy for Sen Paul of KY and Rep Greene of GA too. I told my Ukr. conversation partner that we had a US Representative enter a bill or something about the oppression of language minorities in Transcarpathia. They found this hilarious and opined that there are idiots in every country.
Roberto el oso
@Lyrebird: when MTG came out with her dumb statements about Transcarpathia all I could imagine was how long it must have taken the hack who was feeding her the info to get her past the ‘Trans-‘ part.
Gin & Tonic
@Lyrebird:
I opined at the time that I was certain MTG couldn’t find Transcarpathia on a map.
This whole “oppression of linguistic minorities” thing in Ukraine would be laughable if it weren’t deadly. It’s only promulgated by people with a divisive agenda (one of several reasons I hate Paul Fucking Manafort with the heat of a thousand suns) or the completely ignorant (like old friend of the blog BiP, whom I tried in vain to educate.)
Gin & Tonic
@Roberto el oso:
Ha!
Another Scott
FORTE10 Global Hawk is doing laps in the Black Sea again, kinda near Sochi. I wonder if VVP is staying in his Xanadu near there…
Cheers,
Scott.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Origuy
If they were concerned about linguistic minorities in Ukraine, they should have said something when the Pontic Greeks living in Mariupol were being bombed by the Russians.
Traveller
@Jay: Yes, I saw those…to the Soldier Class, they themselves are a War Crime…to me at least, (never trained or lead my soldiers this way…I find this upsetting, worse, dishonorable…I will check out now because I am wanting to start spitting fire…the lives of your men is all there is) Very Unhappy to See These, Thanks, Traveller
poo-poo, that may have been a bit of an overstatement…don’t like to see our men harmed in any fashion…though there are other factors also
YY_Sima Qian
Good piece by Alexandra Prokopenko in the FT. Speculative opinion piece, but reasonable speculation.