In the three minutes it took me to get started on tonight’s update (7:16 PM EDT) and save the screen shot of the air raid alert map, air raid alerts went up over Sumy, Poltova, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. As soon as I was done saving the map above, air raid alerts were activated for Donetsk Oblast! It is now 7:30 PM EDT and Volyn and Mykolaiv Oblasts have been added to the air raid alert map. Now, at 7:50 PM EDT Kyiv and Kherson Oblasts have been added to the map. It’s now 8:30 PM EDT and as I finish up the update, all of Ukraine except for Lviv and Zakarpattia Oblasts are under air raid alert warnings.
Only six days have passed since the previous massive russian attack on Ukraine, and now the Ukrainian Air Force reports that at least six russian Tu-95 bombers have taken off, indicating that Ukraine is likely facing another missile attack early this morning.
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 31, 2024
The small hours of the night before dawn are once again going to be a long and fraught.
Here’s the butcher’s bill from Russia’s attack on Kharkiv last night.
Another night of russian terror in Kharkiv.
📷Suspilne pic.twitter.com/pVwVIaFsiT
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 30, 2024
UPD Kharkiv. The death toll from the russian missile attacks has risen to five, with 25 other civilians wounded. Rescue efforts are ongoing, as several more people have been reported missing. pic.twitter.com/nvCwqRJAbv
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 31, 2024
Rescuers have retrieved the body of another victim from the rubble of the apartment building in Kharkiv. The death toll from the russian missile attack has now risen to six. pic.twitter.com/yinYLBkSay
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 31, 2024
President Zelenskyy travelled to Stockholm today for the Urkaine-Nordic Summit. Here’s the video of his joint press conference with his colleagues from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden.
President Zelenskyy also thanked President Biden for providing allowing Ukraine to use US made weapons systems and munitions for limited strikes in Russia in proximity to Kharkiv Oblast:
I appreciate @POTUS Joe Biden’s decision on Ukraine’s use of its defense capabilities.
This is a welcome step that will allow us now to better protect Ukraine and Ukrainians from Russian terror and attempts to expand the war.
We must continue to take exactly such steps,…
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) May 31, 2024
I appreciate @POTUS Joe Biden’s decision on Ukraine’s use of its defense capabilities.
This is a welcome step that will allow us now to better protect Ukraine and Ukrainians from Russian terror and attempts to expand the war.
We must continue to take exactly such steps, decisive and effective, in order to ensure the democratic world’s strategic advantage in this confrontation, in which not only Ukraine’s fate is being determined.
Together, we will undoubtedly restore just peace and succeed in ensuring security. I am grateful for the vital support.
Just try and imagine how many lives of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians could have been saved if Russian had not had been totally unpunished and unimpeded in its offensive operations and the bombing of Ukraine.
It’s not all sunshine and rainbows:
Zelensky had a good line about Boris Johnson, too:
Asked if he missed the former prime minister, Zelenskiy joked: “He does not give me the opportunity to miss him. He is always here.”— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 31, 2024
The Guardian has the details: (emphasis mine)
Joe Biden’s delay in sanctioning the use of western weapons against targets in Russia has left the Kremlin’s forces laughing at Ukraine and able to “hunt” its people, Volodymyr Zelenskiy has told the Guardian.
In a wide-ranging interview in Kyiv, the Ukrainian president said that the White House’s equivocation had cost lives and he urged the US president to overcome his perennial worries about possible nuclear “escalation” with Moscow.
On Thursday night it emerged that, after months of lobbying, the US had taken a small but symbolic step – and for the first time would permit some American-made weapons to be used by Kyiv’s military to fire inside Russia in its defence of the city of Kharkiv.
But in his Guardian interview, Zelenskiy made clear he needed to be able to use “powerful” long-range weapons that could hit targets inside deep Russian territory – a red line the White House has refused to lift.
The US, he said, needed to “believe in us more”.
Without this green light, Zelenskiy said other allies, such as the UK, may not allow Ukraine to use their long-range weapons either. “Believe us, we have to respond. They don’t understand anything but force. We are not the first and not the last target,” he said of Russia.
“I think it is absolutely illogical to have [western] weapons and see the murderers, terrorists, who are killing us from the Russian side. I think sometimes they are just laughing at this situation,” he said. “It’s like going hunting for them. Hunting for people. They understand that we can see them, but we cannot reach them.”
Zelenskiy also said:
- New US weapons had still not arrived in sufficient quantities to equip additional Ukrainian brigades in the north-east, where Russia is advancing.
- Vladimir Putin was similar to Adolf Hitler, saying: “Putin is not crazy. He’s dangerous, which is much scarier.”
- He had asked the former British prime minister Boris Johnson to lobby Donald Trump in the run-up to a vote in the US Congress in April to approve $61bn in aid to Ukraine, which hard-right Republicans had opposed.
- The UK Labour leader, Keir Starmer, whom he met in Kyiv last year, was a “good guy”. He added, after a pause: “Rishi [Sunak] is also a good guy.”
Zelenskiy’s remarks came as the Biden administration on Thursday relaxed its longstanding policy forbidding Ukraine from using US weapons against targets inside Russia. It gave permission for Ukraine to fire back – but only near Kharkiv, where Moscow has been waging a fresh offensive.
The decision allows Ukraine to use US-supplied Himars artillery to strike Russian soldiers and command and control centres. Zelenskiy’s press spokesperson, Serhii Nykyforov, welcomed the US move. He told the Guardian: “It will significantly boost our ability to counter Russian attempts to mass across the border.” Later on Friday, Zelenskiy described the decision as a “step forward”.
But the White House insisted its policy prohibiting deeper strikes had not changed. Ukraine would still not be able to use the long-range Atacms system within Russia, it said.
Speaking inside his presidential headquarters, Zelenskiy made clear he wanted to use long-range weapons such as the UK-made Storm Shadow missiles. He said that, despite reports to the contrary, the UK had not given “100% permission” to do so. Thursday’s shift is unlikely to change the position either.
In reality, Downing Street waits on the Americans, Zelenskiy suggested. “We raised this issue twice. We did not get confirmation from him [David Cameron, the foreign secretary],” he said.
A final decision by the UK and other partners depended on “consensus”, with the position in Washington being crucial, he suggested. “You know how it works,” he said.
Biden has long been concerned about the risks of a direct nuclear conflict with Moscow. The US president is likely to skip a peace summit in Switzerland next month, which Zelenskiy has organised. Asked if he felt let down by the US and its leadership, he replied: “I think they need to believe in us more.”
In the past week Russia has used guided bombs to kill at least 25 civilians in Kharkiv. Yet Ukraine had not been allowed to fire into Russia, Zelenskiy said. Nor did it have enough conventional weapons to equip reserve brigades, which might be deployed to push the Russians out.
“No one is accusing anyone,” he said. “We are where we are. We are fighting, and we are at war, and not at the beginning. That’s why we need to find a way out of the situation every day.”
Zelenskiy noted that western countries at peace had “different priorities” and, understandably, did not share Ukraine’s sense of existential urgency. This meant that “dialogue” rather than action could be frustrating. “For us, time is our life,” he said. “If you don’t go down in a minute [to a bomb shelter] you can be dead. Therefore the attitude to time is completely different.”
He said Russia was “moving faster” than the west in terms of making and supplying weapons for its armed forces. Zelenskiy likened Ukraine to a ship – “not a sinking one” – that had to get to its destination “fairly” and in one piece, saving “as many lives as possible”.
He spoke, too, about the emotional and personal toll the war was taking on the people of his country. “You don’t know what war is until it comes to your house, to your street, to a friend of yours, to someone you studied with or to someone you love,” he said. “Until you have this, the war is somewhere afar.”
Zelenskiy said he had used Johnson as an “instrument” to reach Trump, after Republicans in Congress spent six months obstructing aid to Ukraine. Johnson had a productive “conversation” with Trump, Zelenskiy said. It was one of several initiatives to get through to Republicans, including to the House speaker, Mike Johnson.
With no end to the war in sight, Zelenskiy said negotiations with Russia were unrealistic. He said a peace deal would be a “trap” since Putin would violate any agreement and “could not be believed”.
Russia’s president launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 because the west had responded weakly to his annexation of Crimea and takeover of parts of eastern Ukraine in 2014, Zelenskiy said.
Russia insists Ukraine has to accept new territorial realities. Zelenskiy said Moscow would exploit any pause in the fighting to “strengthen its muscles on the battlefield” and would strike again, sooner or later. He said the conflict in Ukraine was similar to the second world war, though on a smaller scale, because of the “ideology of Russian fascism”. Putin’s brutal “methodology” was the same as in Nazi Germany, he stated. It featured “mass executions, burials and rapes”.
Russian soldiers even used the “same routes” as Hitler’s army in their campaign to overrun Kyiv and to dominate the country, he said. If Russia won in Ukraine, Putin would seek to further reshape the boundaries of Europe by attacking other nations, Zelenskiy said. “This is the real third world war.” He emphasised: “I don’t think Putin is crazy. He’s dangerous. It’s much scarier. You see, he will not stop.”
More at the link.
I want to highlight this point:
In reality, Downing Street waits on the Americans, Zelenskiy suggested. “We raised this issue twice. We did not get confirmation from him [David Cameron, the foreign secretary],” he said.
A final decision by the UK and other partners depended on “consensus”, with the position in Washington being crucial, he suggested. “You know how it works,” he said.
The reason I have been emphasizing, over and over and for some time, that the Biden administration has to lead on this is because I know from actual professional experience that many of our NATO and EU allies and partners will not move until or unless the US does. Specifically, the UK and Germany, as well as many of our other older allies and partners in western Europe. The dynamic here is not that Biden will not move until he and his team can get our allies and partners to achieve consensus. The dynamic is that consensus will only form once the US acts because these allies and partners are looking for top cover from the US. I was the Senior Advisor to the Commander of US Army Europe when Russia initially invaded Ukraine in 2014. I know how this works from being inside the process at a senior level. You cannot extrapolate how NATO works from the domestic US politics where Biden has always positioned himself in the center of the Democratic Party and its constituencies, so he doesn’t move until they do. This is many of our NATO and EU allies and partners will not move until we make the first move.
This doesn’t make Biden a bad person, nor a bad president. It doesn’t mean I’m not voting for him in November. It is simply the reality that in regard to Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion, he and his nat-sec team need to be more risk accepting and less risk averse.
Imagine how much closer we could have been to a just and stable… pic.twitter.com/f4GieiiR6o
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 31, 2024
Just try and imagine how many lives of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians could have been saved if Russian had not had been totally unpunished and unimpeded in its offensive operations and the bombing of Ukraine.
Imagine how much closer we could have been to a just and stable peace if Russia’s ability to fight and finance this war was resolutely undermined 2 years ago.
“Escalation management” has always been a stillborn, senseless approach, and we in many ways are reaping the bitter harvest of it now, with Putin having been given 2 years to recover, find allies, and get prepared for a long-lasting total war.
Map: territories from where Kharkiv being attacked(Near Kharkiv) pic.twitter.com/4jpEWqFfSm
— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) May 31, 2024
Here’s Tatarigami’s take via the Thread Reader App:
In this war, timely aid and permission to strike are playing a key role. Ukraine must not be limited by weapon types or target locations. Delays or restrictions risk missing a critical window of opportunity, prolonging the war.🧵Thread about consequences and missed opportunities:2/ These images show Russian concentrations of forces, camps, and field repair bases on the border with Ukraine. All these images have two things in common: by 2024, these sites have moved and dispersed, and none were targeted before their deployment to the frontlines3/ It’s fair to assume that many of these forces have been destroyed or damaged by now. However, the extent of casualties and damage they caused beforehand is unknown. This could have been avoided in 2022 and 2023 if Ukraine had permission and weaponry for strikes.4/ Are there any valuable targets left? Yes, there are still valuable targets in areas bordering Kharkiv Oblast. However, Ukraine will predominantly deal with company and battalion-level threats rather than neutralizing entire regimental combat capabilities with few strikes.5/ Ukraine should conduct strikes at the full range of provided weapons, with clear restrictions like civilian targets or nuclear facilities. Valuable targets remain in Rostov, Voronezh, and Oryol Oblasts, similar to those shown here, which won’t be shared now for opsec reasons.6/ Into the third year of this war, it’s evident that these restrictions only cost Ukraine lives and territories. The aim of this thread isn’t merely to criticize the strategy, but to show why such restrictions are damaging and urgently require to be openly removed by the West7/ Thank you for reading. Our visibility has recently dropped significantly. Please help by liking, and sharing the first message of this thread to boost visibility. Your comments are just as welcomed, as they greatly aid with the algorithm.
The Ukrainians did another prisoner and hostage swap with Russia today. The hostages were Ukrainian citizens that the Russians simply scarfed up and held because they were Ukrainians.
75 Ukrainians have returned home from the russian captivity: soldiers of the #UAarmy, the National Guard, border guards, and four civilians.
We continue our work to bring everyone home. pic.twitter.com/JZZGgO7YtE
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 31, 2024
19 of them are Ukrainians taken prisoner in Snake Island, and 10 of them are Azovstal defenders.
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 31, 2024
Mariana is from Mariupol. In 2022, UN and ICRC representatives promised to evacuate her to Zaporizhia, but took her to a russian filtration camp instead. She spent 2 years in captivity pic.twitter.com/B2TliKctZL
— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz) May 31, 2024
Home at last.
Kostyantyn Myrhorodskyi, who was in captivity for more than 2 years, is singing «Ukraine», one of the most popular songs by Taras Petrynenko.📹: Suspilne pic.twitter.com/XdwslXmT8B
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 31, 2024
A Ukrainian soldier after Russian captivity.
Now compare this with what Russian POWs look like as they get back home from Ukraine.
This is insane. pic.twitter.com/E9NtY6kjjx
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 31, 2024
The price:
We spent time with 3 amazing children all coping with growing up under fire.
This short report (in two parts here) is some of the girls’ stories.
All 3 children are in our film that goes out this Saturday on @BBCNews & @BBCiPlayer pic.twitter.com/goYCCbph1l
— Sarah Rainsford (@sarahrainsford) May 31, 2024
And big thanks, too, to Voices of Children Ukraine and Unicef – for helping the children, and for helping our team
— Sarah Rainsford (@sarahrainsford) May 31, 2024
Germany:
Olaf Scholz finally gets the stick out.
🇩🇪Germany joins nations that officially authorize 🇺🇦Ukraine to defend itself by using their weapons against legitimate Russian military targets in Russian territory.
Slowly and steadily, step by step, common reason prevails.
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 31, 2024
And a new aid package too:
The German Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius, announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at €500 million during his visit to Odesa.
The capabilities in the package include missiles for IRIS-T air defense systems, artillery systems, spare parts for Leopard tanks,… pic.twitter.com/Z5AdswyTmq
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 31, 2024
The German Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius, announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at €500 million during his visit to Odesa.
The capabilities in the package include missiles for IRIS-T air defense systems, artillery systems, spare parts for Leopard tanks, unmanned aerial systems, and sniper rifles.
We are grateful to our German partners for their unwavering support.
Together, we are stronger!
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪
@BMVg_Bundeswehr
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia!
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) June 1, 2024
Sumy Oblast:
⚡️Russia attacks 9 communities in Sumy Oblast.
Russian forces attacked Sumy Oblast 131 times in 24 separate attacks throughout the day, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported on May 31.https://t.co/5z63kee4aO
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 31, 2024
The Kyiv Independent has the details:
Russian forces attacked Sumy Oblast 131 times in 24 separate attacks throughout the day, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported on May 31.
The communities of Khotin, Yunakivka, Krasnopillia, Velyka Pysarivka, Myropillia, Seredyna-Buda, Mykolaiv, Svesy, and Esman were targeted.
Throughout the day, Russia assailed the border communities with mortar, drone, and artillery attacks, while also dropping explosives from drones onto two of the communities.
No casualties or injuries were reported.
The village of Esman, located about 24 kilometers west and 10 kilometers north of the Ukraine-Russia border, experienced the bulk of the attacks reported with 29 explosions recorded in the area.
Russian strikes against Sumy Oblast have become increasingly destructive in recent months. Amid intensified attacks, Ukrainian authorities ordered increased evacuations from the region.
Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said on May 14 he expects Russia to launch a new attack in Sumy Oblast once the situation in Kharkiv Oblast stabilized, the New York Times reported.
Officials from Ukraine’s Border Guard service later said that Russia does not have enough troops on the Sumy Oblast border to launch a major attack on the region.
Shelling is a daily occurrence for the communities near Ukraine’s northeastern border with Russia, with residents in the region’s vulnerable border settlements experience multiple attacks per day.
A Russian rocket attack on May 29 on the village of Krasnopillia in Sumy Oblast killed two civilians and injured three others.
Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast:
Destroyed Russian assault group in Vovchansk, Kharkiv front https://t.co/YiOdOB3biA pic.twitter.com/LS4RVS3Hz5
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 31, 2024
Russian occupied Crimea:
It was a slow news day yesterday, so you’re all forgiven for not appreciating that a U.S.-made missile old enough to have seen Nirvana in concert whistled blissfully past Russia’s state-of-the-art air defense systems in occupied Crimea and hit its target perfectly.
— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) May 31, 2024
The Kreminna front:
Roads in the Kreminna sector under the control of FPV drones of the 12th Azov Brigade.
The logistics routes of the invaders are a key target of the strike UAVs company fighters. FPV drones effectively destroy moving targets and save ammunition for other brigade firepower.
Enemy… pic.twitter.com/rECOffFrBH
— Azov Brigade (@azov_media) May 30, 2024
Roads in the Kreminna sector under the control of FPV drones of the 12th Azov Brigade.
The logistics routes of the invaders are a key target of the strike UAVs company fighters. FPV drones effectively destroy moving targets and save ammunition for other brigade firepower.
Enemy infantry, vehicles and armored vehicles, equipment — in a new selection of hits from the strike UAVs company of the 12th Special Forces Brigade Azov.
Krasnodar Krai, Russia:
Overnight, 🇺🇦 Neptun missiles hit the ferry crossing and the oil terminal of the port “Kavkaz” in the Krasnodar region, russia — @GeneralStaffUA reports.
This infrastructure was used by the enemy for logistics and supply of the army.
Also, attack UAVs hit another oil terminal in… pic.twitter.com/es00gbz1tA— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 31, 2024
Overnight, 🇺🇦 Neptun missiles hit the ferry crossing and the oil terminal of the port “Kavkaz” in the Krasnodar region, russia — @GeneralStaffUA reports.
This infrastructure was used by the enemy for logistics and supply of the army.
Also, attack UAVs hit another oil terminal in Krasnodar.We continue to destroy russian military equipment and infrastructure. Ukraine will win!🇺🇦
Big news! Large seaport Kavkaz in Krasnodar Krai got hit—ferry crossing and oil terminal. Drones also went after Tamanneftegaz oil depot. Later, a long-range UAV “Lyuty” hit Orgsintez plant in Kazan. Quite a massive, simultaneous attack with anti-ship missiles and various drones. pic.twitter.com/hDQuWJwMle
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 31, 2024
Official statement of Ukrainian military regarding tonight’s attack on Kavkaz port near Kerch bridge:
“Another result of the coordinated actions of the Defense Forces: the terminals in the Krasnodar region of Russia was hit
The strike of the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of… https://t.co/bbImLCItcw
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 31, 2024
Official statement of Ukrainian military regarding tonight’s attack on Kavkaz port near Kerch bridge:
“Another result of the coordinated actions of the Defense Forces: the terminals in the Krasnodar region of Russia was hit
The strike of the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine hit the ferry crossing and the oil terminal of the port “Kavkaz” in the Krasnodar region of Russia. This happened at the beginning of the day on May 31 – the next night after the Ukrainian Defense Forces disabled the Kerch ferry crossing on the territory of the occupied Ukrainian Crimea with well-aimed strikes, which were traveling to the port of “Kavkaz” and were used for military logistics of the aggressor.
The damage to the oil terminal in the area of the port “Kavkaz” was caused by several missiles of Ukrainian production from the coastal missile complex “Neptun”.
The results of the objective control confirm the explosions at the aiming points. The accuracy of hits is being investigated.
The complex operation was carried out in coordination with other components of the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
Thus, the attack UAVs of the Defense Forces hit another oil terminal in the territory of the Krasnodar Territory.
“Modern” and “effective” Russian air defenses again proved powerless against our missiles and unmanned systems and could not protect important facilities used for logistics and supply of the Russian army.
To be continued…
We continue to destroy the enemy, his equipment and military infrastructure.
So we will win! Glory to Ukraine!»
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets today, so here is some adjacent material:
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) May 24, 2024
Friends pic.twitter.com/wK3G7hyIDM
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) May 24, 2024
And a new(ish) video from Patron’s official TikTok! From Kyiv Day, which was five days ago.
@patron__dsns З Днем Києва!💙💛
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
Happy Kyiv Day! 💙💛
Open thread!
Martin
This is an important policy step. Once you overcome the binary choice of striking inside Russia/not striking inside Russia, the policy of where to draw the line is a lot easier to shift. This shows up early on in policymaking – and the better advisors will start the policy having resolved that binary but with the narrowest possible opportunity to strike in Russia knowing that will be easy to fix later.
Gin & Tonic
The ICRC is complicit in war crimes. Anyone who donates to them is an (presumably unwitting) accessory.
Shalimar
Very sick of this war against us that we are choosing not to fight. The US sucks.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
N M
IANANA (I am not a naval analyst), but, man alive, all this naval drone warfare has *gotta* be making heads spin in the PLA and PLAN. (I am sure it is in the USN as well, for that matter). We’ve perhaps “known” this since at least 2002’s Millennium Challenge exercise, but it’s an entirely different thing to see it play out in the Black Sea.
Say what you will, but surface vessels are just dead, dead, dead. And I don’t think anyone is landing an army to take over Taiwan by submarine.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1796439574173901082#m
Another Scott
Meanwhile, …
Lots to learn about using these things by the hundreds/thousands in a real war…
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
YY_Sima Qian
@N M: You are forgetting that the PRC has a huge coast guard & an even huger Maritime Militia than serve as screens against naval suicide drones. Its does not necessarily take much to take out such drones – alert watches & manned heavy machine guns/small calibre cannons. Constant overwatch by armed long endurance drones will also help, which the PLA also plenty of. Most importantly, the PRC can readily repair & replace coast guard cutters & armed fishing trawlers.
It’s definitely going to be a challenge for all surface naval forces in coastal/restricted waters, the PLAN included, but the PRC can probably put more many more hulls (not just the PLAN, the PRC CG, the Maritime Militia, but also civilian shipping) than the ROC can put drones in water. IMO, the greater danger to the PRC surface combatants remains anti-ship cruise missiles launched from concealed positions ashore, which Taiwan has a lot of.
In high intensity warfare between near peer level opponents, it ends up being a war of attrition. No side will be invulnerable. Russia does not have the shipbuilding capacity to win a war of attrition on the waves. However, I don’t think people understand the PRC’s current overwhelming advantage in industrial capacity, for civilian, dual-use or military applications, to wage prolonged war. There isn’t one wunderwaffe that would allow Taiwan to defeat a PRC invasion, it has to be a multi-layered defense to increase the cost & drag out duration, to fight for time to allow the US intervention to arrive, & then the war goes apocalyptic.
Carlo Graziani
The broad drift among NATO countries towards allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons to strike within Russian borders suggests to me that there has been an ongoing back-room debate among NATO partners about the issue for months now, resolving from debate into discussion of practicalities within the past few weeks. The Twitter/X and other media windows that we access would necessarily only reflect the lagging visible surface of this process.
As @Martin: notes, all this reflects a deep (and broad) policy shift. However, given the relatively lengthy timescales on which such policy shifts occur, we can be fairly certain that the serious discussion among NATO members has been underway for months, if we are just seeing its fruits now.
Martin
@Carlo Graziani: I agree. The US concern is primarily a nuclear exchange of some sort, the European concern is more simply an expansion of the conventional war, and the latter needs to work to overcome the former. And once that line moves, and the fears don’t play out, then the line can move again.
But it remains the case that the west is playing for a stalemate. If the west is committed to keeping Ukraine from falling, they’re going to have to escalate their support to achieve that, yet they don’t want to escalate support early enough to enable a Ukrainian win. If they’re going to eventually give more advanced arms, F-16s, enable strikes in Russia, Ukraine is better off just allowing that now, but the west is too afraid until they feel like they’re forced. I’m reminded of Democrats running away from the abortion issue for 50 years until Dobbs happens and suddenly they find their voice. Had they done that 30 years sooner we probably could have avoided the whole situation.
Roberto el oso
I’m sure that the country-by-country decisions to allow the Ukrainians to deploy weaponry as they see fit (i.e. targeting locations inside Russia itself) are an indicator of policies/strategies which are far more complex than my simplistic take, which is that Ukraine’s European allies are gesturing towards a future (for NATO, for the West, in general) in which the US is no longer involved, in which our domestic problems prevent us from continuing in any primary leadership role, internationally. That these decisions might also be a form of nudging us to come along and finally get it together would, I suppose, be my optimistic take. But either way it does seem to signal that the Europeans (or some of them) now understand that we may no longer be in a position to have their backs.
Jay
@Roberto el oso:
Canada’s position of “Okay” from the get go, was based on our Peacekeeping experiences in Lebanon, the Sinai and Bosnia.
If you arn’t “allowed” to “shoot back” you are neutered.
sab
@Jay: I remember you Canadians had some generals with PTSD because they weren’t allowed to protect the people they were charged with protecting in Yugoslavia.
YY_Sima Qian
@sab: Definitely happened I Rwanda.
Jay
@sab:
@YY_Sima Qian:
Wasn’t just Generals, they just made the news.
I got to dig out mass graves in Bosnia with General Lewis MacKenzie as an MSGT with the PPLI, (I was seconded from the Seaforth’s as a reserve soldier.)
Yeah, he took up a shovel.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
wjca
If I’m reading the map correctly, two of the sources are in Russian-occupied Georgia. I expect the Georgians** would be delighted to see those Russian facilities hit. And no niggling over whether the Ukranians were striking into Russia.
** Not so sure about the Georgian government. I seem to recall hearing, a few months back, that a pro-Russia party was on the rise there.
Jay
@wjca:
As in Hungary, Slovenia, Georgian Dream is the ruZZian party in the majority,
https://vatniksoup.com/en/soups/288/
YY_Sima Qian
Some of the 2nd & 3rd order effects of the War in Gaza:
Some more:
YY_Sima Qian
Some of the 2nd & 3rd order effects of the War in Gaza:
Some more:
YY_Sima Qian
Oops, sorry for the double post. Didn’t realize one was in moderation.
Another Scott
@YY_Sima Qian: I ass-u-me the folks in the Global South have enough history and smarts to say to Xi “Yeah, interesting words. What’s in it for me?”
We’ll see.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Chris
@YY_Sima Qian:
You know, ironically, this sounds a lot like how the United States operated during the Cold War, especially the early years. Monarchy or republic? Don’t care. Christian or Muslim? Don’t care. Black or white? Don’t care. The question is, are you ready to kill some commies, and are you willing to play ball with all the corporations that Sullivan & Cromwell lobbies for here in Washington? If the answer to both those questions is “yes,” then we’re in business.
YY_Sima Qian
@Another Scott: By now, nearly 2 decades into the BRI, Global South countries know what they can get from the PRC: infrastructure at [potentially] affordable prices & relatively short timelines. Why do democratic governments in the Global South like to join the BRI? Because Chinese contractor can turn around big projects w/in a single term, so that they can run on those accomplishments during reelection. For the authoritarian governments, Chinese contractors can delivery major projects that solidify their developmentalist credentials to the people under their rule.
& for the 1st decade of the BRI the PRC generally had not refused project proposals from Global South governments, it was up to the Global South governments to determine whether the financing terms were affordable, & whether the positive impact to the overall economy (infrastructure projects should almost never be judged purely in GAAP terms) from the project would justify the costs. That’s changed now because of too many Global South governments are in debt distress & a few white elephant projects have undermined the BRI’s reputation.
Although the PRC has now shifted away from multi-billion USD infrastructure megaprojects in debt distressed countries, it is still enthusiastically pursuing projects in the tens or hundreds of millions USD range for things like digital connectivity, data centers, health care infrastructure, clean energy, & transport electrification.
I don’t think anyone is actually taking the PRC’s words at face value or looking at the PRC to solve the Israel-Palestinian conflict. How can you tell the PRC stance on Gaza is transparently cynical grandstanding? It has sent little aid to Gaza. However, the PRC does not have to do much to benefit from the own goals by the US & many part of the EU.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chris: Yeah, the only conditions that the PRC tend to impose on their Global South interlocutors are: sign up to the “One China Principle” (that says the PRC is the only legitimate government of China & Taiwan is an inalienable part of China), do not vote against the PRC in international organizations, & sign up to financial terms for BRI projects that give the Chinese creditors (policy banks or state owned commercial banks) seniority in debt repayments.
BTW, most Western governments had only agreed to the “One China Policy” when they established diplomatic relations w/ the PRC, which acknowledge the PRC position of “One China Principle” w/o explicitly agreeing to it, but also would not explicitly challenge the PRC position, & would keep relations w/ Taiwan unofficial. “Principle” vs. “Policy” is one thing to watch for in all of the diplomatese between the PRC & other governments.
Harrison Wesley
@Jay: Slovenia?