(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Quick housekeeping note: Rosie is still doing fine after Monday’s chemo treatment. Thank you all again for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.
Other than an air raid alert for Kharkiv Oblast, the skies over Ukraine are quiet right now.
But they weren’t earlier!
Kryvyi Rih:
A woman waits with hope for her husband, whom rescuers are searching for under the rubble. Russian forces struck a residential area in Kryvyi Rih with a missile. Nine people have been confirmed dead so far, and 29 injured, including five children. Rescue efforts continue as four… pic.twitter.com/q6Vo7PNPPM
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) June 12, 2024
A woman waits with hope for her husband, whom rescuers are searching for under the rubble. Russian forces struck a residential area in Kryvyi Rih with a missile. Nine people have been confirmed dead so far, and 29 injured, including five children. Rescue efforts continue as four more people are reported missing.
Russian missile strike on Kryvyi Rih today: so far, 6 people confirmed dead and 11 more wounded – President Zelenskyy.
Rescue works continue.
This must not become a mundane reality. This is a tragedy. Too many tragedies.
📹: SESU pic.twitter.com/qUbARHsURF
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 12, 2024
Also, what’s left of Musk’s coders are still screwing with certain tweets about Ukraine with video. This tweet from Maria Avdeeva won’t even generate an embed code.
Kyiv:
Russia launched missile and drone attack on Kyiv, air defense working heard amidst the thunder. 5 missiles and 24 drones destroyed. Those Patriot missiles saved many lives in just this one night. pic.twitter.com/SjLiUTeQky
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 12, 2024
/2. Russian Kh-101 with cluster submunitions. https://t.co/08pq8DFmAE
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 12, 2024
Cluster submunitions of the Russian Kh-101 cruise missile after tonight’s Russian missile/drone attack on Ukraine. Not far from Kyiv.
https://t.me/vasylkiv_now/8836P.S: The first time Russians used Kh-101 cruise missile with cluster submunition was reported on 7th of June 2024 – https://t.me/war_home/1575
President Zelenskyy traveled to Saudi Arabia today where he met with the Crown Prince. There’s no new daily address. However, here is his address from yesterday at the Ukraine Recovery Conference.
And his joint press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz:
The Ukrainians have established a new branch of their armed forces.
Ukraine became the first country in the world to create a new branch of the armed forces—Unmanned Systems Forces.
The Unmanned Systems Forces use air, sea, and ground unmanned and robotic systems in their combat operations.
Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi, the Hero of Ukraine, is… pic.twitter.com/SBgNu9t2VK
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 12, 2024
Ukraine became the first country in the world to create a new branch of the armed forces—Unmanned Systems Forces.
The Unmanned Systems Forces use air, sea, and ground unmanned and robotic systems in their combat operations.
Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi, the Hero of Ukraine, is the Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces. He is one of the first commanders of the #AFU, who began to effectively use unmanned aerial vehicles in combat work and powerful electronic warfare devices produced using his own technology.
We are changing the rules of war through innovation and technology. 🇺🇦
The Netherlands:
The Netherlands will provide 1 Patriot radar and 3 launchers as part of its efforts to deliver a full Patriot battery to Ukraine.
Thank you, Netherlands!
More Patriot systems for Ukraine = more lives saved.
🇺🇦🤝🇳🇱 pic.twitter.com/yxeXADyPUE— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 12, 2024
Great news from the Netherlands!
The Netherlands will contribute EUR 60 million to offensive drone capabilities for Ukraine, including unmanned surface vessels and FPV drones.
Drones help our soldiers drive the enemy out of our land and, at the same time, save the lives of our… https://t.co/R665LW1vgk
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 12, 2024
Great news from the Netherlands!
The Netherlands will contribute EUR 60 million to offensive drone capabilities for Ukraine, including unmanned surface vessels and FPV drones.
Drones help our soldiers drive the enemy out of our land and, at the same time, save the lives of our warriors.
We are grateful to our Dutch friends and colleagues from the @Defensie for their support and significant contribution to strengthening Ukraine’s capabilities.
Norway:
We are grateful for your steadfast support!
More air defense capabilities for Ukraine means more innocent lives saved. https://t.co/Eqbz4CAKQ1— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 12, 2024
Lithuania:
+14 M113 vehicles coming from 🇱🇹Lithuania.
Arrival expected later this week!
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 12, 2024
Estonia:
⚡Estonia has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine, including Mistral-type short-range air defense missile systems and missiles. https://t.co/7W0NXEQfoE
— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) June 12, 2024
From United24 Media:
Estonia has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine, including Mistral-type short-range air defense missile systems and missiles. This support comes as Ukraine continues to face brutal attacks from Russia.
“Air defense is urgently needed by Ukraine to repel these attacks,” said Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur. “Contributing alongside our allies is not only in Ukraine’s immediate security interest, but also directly benefits Estonia’s own security.”
The Estonian aid package has been designed to maximize its benefit to Ukraine without compromising the combat readiness of Estonian forces. The specific quantities of systems and missiles have not been disclosed for security reasons.
The Mistral system is designed to attack low-flying helicopters, aircraft, and drones.
Estonia has provided extensive military aid to Ukraine in the past, including Javelin anti-tank missile systems, howitzers, artillery, anti-tank weapons, mortars, vehicles, communication equipment, field hospitals, medical supplies, personal protective equipment, and dry food packages.
In May, the country’s parliament passed a resolution allowing the utilization of frozen Russian assets to compensate for war-related damages in Ukraine.
The US:
+1 PATRIOT system (reportedly) coming from 🇺🇸America.
Slowly, reluctantly, and inevitably, leaders admit it that the fascist oligarchic regime in Russia is absolutely NOT interested in anything but the ongoing war of territorial grabs in Ukraine.
The only way to stop this…
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 12, 2024
+1 PATRIOT system (reportedly) coming from 🇺🇸America.
Slowly, reluctantly, and inevitably, leaders admit it that the fascist oligarchic regime in Russia is absolutely NOT interested in anything but the ongoing war of territorial grabs in Ukraine.
The only way to stop this madness is to deny Russia’s ability to fight this war.
The US also has placed new sanctions on Russian individuals and organizations.
The main Russian stock exchange halted currency trading in dollars and euros following the new US sanctions. Russians can now only buy EUR and USD on the secondary market via banks 1/3
— Anastasia Stognei (@NastyaStognei) June 12, 2024
Imports will become more expensive, especially given that the sanctions hit amid Russia’s ongoing struggles with access to yuan liquidity. The rouble will become even more volatile and the black currency market is likely to emerge 3/3
— Anastasia Stognei (@NastyaStognei) June 12, 2024
The new sanctions include some interesting bits and bobs:
US Treasury sanctioned today Silk Way Rally, a Russian rally organizer that last year we outed as a GRU front providing cover for clandestine operations. We later showed it smuggled members of unit 29155 into China around the time US diplomats suffered Havana Syndrome symptoms. pic.twitter.com/dczi8O20ip
— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) June 12, 2024
You may remember Alexeev from another fly-on-the-wall video, the one where he sat down with Prigozhin mid-coup. Ironically, in both cases Alexeev breaks the fourth wall and looks at the camera. https://t.co/Wy8oXngTYd
— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) June 12, 2024
Germany:
“If Putin succeeds in Ukraine, he will not stop” – Robert Habeck, Vice Chancellor of Germany and Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action. pic.twitter.com/9rRlHxuhaf
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 12, 2024
Germany in Ukraine:
‘“Marder infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) are already being maintained and overhauled at the hub, and in the future, Leopard 1 and 2 main battle tanks as well as other German-made systems will also be repaired at other locations in Ukraine,” a company statement said.’
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) June 12, 2024
DefenseNews has the details:
MILAN — Rheinmetall has established a maintenance center in western Ukraine to repair German-donated military equipment damaged in combat, as more arms manufacturers are setting up shop in the embattled country.
The Rheinmetall Ukrainian Defense Industry repair facility, a joint venture project between the German company and the Ukraine state-owned enterprise Ukroboronprom, was inaugurated on June 10.
“Marder infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) are already being maintained and overhauled at the hub, and in the future, Leopard 1 and 2 main battle tanks as well as other German-made systems will also be repaired at other locations in Ukraine,” a company statement said.
Rheinmetall will rely on local labor and equipment in addition to providing its own resources to the hub. According to the statement, Ukrainian specialists were trained in servicing armored vehicles at company sites in Germany last year.
By the end of 2023, the German manufacturer had sent over 100 Marder IFVs to Ukraine, and additional deliveries in the “double-digit range” were planned for this year, per company information.
Rheinmetall has also been tapped to deliver Leopard 1 and 2 main battle tanks as well as armored recovery vehicles to Kyiv.
Company officials have previously floated the idea of setting up as many as four factories in the embattled country to produce a wider range of weapons.
There has been a stronger push from the Ukrainian government recently to localize the production of military equipment as well as a growing inclination of Western defense companies to open plants in Kyiv.
Earlier this month, KNDS, the French-German manufacturer of combat vehicles, said it was close to opening a subsidiary in Ukraine that will work with local firms to make spare parts and produce 155mm artillery shells.
Other Western land vehicles producers have weighed the option of opening a Ukraine production site as a more sustainable form of military aid, but few have made the move in light of security risks.
The Modern War Institute at the US Military Academy West Point has published a very interesting and important assessment of the NATO training mission for the Ukrainian military. (emphasis mine)
‘The trainers shrug about how to adapt their trench warfighting curriculum for these emerging trends. One says, “No doctrine or manual exists in NATO for this type of war.”’ https://t.co/jG7MXK03EW pic.twitter.com/IXmhArCdkH
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) June 12, 2024
Visiting a German Army base in the vicinity of Berlin, we watch five Ukrainian infantrymen assault a neatly arranged trench, again and again. It’s two o’clock in the afternoon, and they have been practicing this skillset for five hours that day already. Tired and hurried faces, we watch this small group of Ukrainians practice a trench assault, with an energetic German noncommissioned officer shouting out corrections and coaching the troops alongside a German soldier translating it into Ukrainian. We walk around the densely forested training site watching other similar small groups repeat the same trench assault maneuver, seeing signs of exhaustion among some as they move past the halfway mark of the required eight hours of training for the day.
This exercise is part of a forty-day basic infantry course meant to convert Ukrainian soldiers into assault teams capable of confidently taking over Russian trenches. The course constitutes the European Union Military Assistance Mission to Ukraine (EUMAM), the first ever EU training mission organized on EU territories. Since November 2022, the EU has trained over fifty-two thousand Ukrainian troops, with twenty-four EU member states providing military personnel and training modules to Ukrainian forces. EUMAM is one of three multilateral training programs for Ukrainians. Collectively, over 130,000 Ukrainians have been trained by the international community at eighty locations around the world. The US-led Joint Multinational Training Group–Ukraine (JMTG-U), including rotational US forces, has trained over nineteen thousand Ukrainians since 2022. The British-led Operation Interflex and its predecessor Operation Orbital have trained over sixty thousand Ukrainians since 2015. The disparity in the number of trained Ukrainian soldiers between the US training mission and those led by the UK and EU is a function of US prioritization of military readiness requirements, training exercises, and deployments across eastern Europe to deter Russia and reassure NATO allies.
During our travel, we visit several other training locations around Berlin. We arrive at a Bundeswehr urban training ground with modified trench systems to watch an eight-man Ukrainian trench assault team clear fifty meters of trenches. It’s a slow, tough slog, as the lead Ukrainian throws a training grenade about every two to three meters to clear each corner. The observing group of training officers share that each Ukrainian soldier should carry ten grenades for this type of an assault. In the harsh reality of the Russo-Ukrainian war, an experienced Ukrainian soldier laments that they’re lucky to have two grenades for trench clearing operations. The soldier declares they wouldn’t assault a trench without a supporting drone to surveil, allowing them to conserve grenades.
If things weren’t bad enough for Ukrainians assaulting trenches, the trainers mention that the Russians intentionally abandon booby-trapped trenches to wipe out Ukrainian assault teams. They recommend Bangalore torpedo explosives to preemptively clear Russian trenches due to the possibility of booby-trapping. In other cases, Russian forces use tunneling techniques to breach Ukrainian trenches. The trainers shrug about how to adapt their trench warfighting curriculum for these emerging trends. One says, “No doctrine or manual exists in NATO for this type of war.”
Training for a War you Haven’t Experienced
The training we observe near Berlin involves military advisors from various European countries. Training modules include Ukrainians being taught on Leopard 1A5 tanks and various infantry tactics for trench and urban warfare. We meet three US National Guard troops who are helping teach the EUMAM advanced assault sapper course. We see and talk to Ukrainian troops as young as nineteen and as old as sixty-nine. According to one German training officer, the average age of Ukrainians in training cohorts was thirty-four when training began in earnest in 2023, but in 2024 they report that the average age now varies around mid-forties.
With Kyiv recently passing a new mobilization bill, which lowers the draft age from twenty-seven to twenty-five, Ukraine will form four new infantry brigades. The addition of these soldiers couldn’t come at a better time: Russia’s assault on the city of Kharkiv with five battalions forced Ukrainian retreats in some sectors due to a lack of experienced soldiers. These Russian territorial advances and evidence that Russian forces have incorporated organizational changes and new technologies underscore the urgency of deploying more capable Ukrainian troops to counter these heightened threats. These developments have even caused NATO member states to consider sending advisors to provide training inside Ukraine.
The ultimate form and intensity of this assistance will depend upon agreements between NATO members, based on their assessments of the urgency of this mission and the risk of escalation attending the positioning of NATO member states’ personnel on Ukrainian territory. But it is worth noting that Ukraine’s supporters stand at a strategic crossroads. Growing political fatigue and a renewed Russian offensive test the credibility of Western commitments. Ukraine needs the right quantity/quality mix of equipment and properly trained personnel, as it is estimated that the Ukrainians “may have lost over 70% of their combat experienced personnel since 2022.” The American political struggle to approve the $61 billion aid package for Ukraine signals that the long-term US commitment to support Ukraine has become less certain. These developments tested Europeans.
The EU was able to partially replace US aid to ensure the training and arming of Ukrainian soldiers, but more is needed to stave off Russian offensives this summer. Results of this test are rather disheartening. Earlier this year, the EU failed to deliver a promised one million 155-millimeter artillery shells to Ukraine, failing short by almost 50 percent of the declared target. The Czech initiative to procure eight hundred thousand shells outside the EU is facing similar delays, partially due to an unwillingness of some EU member states to chip in funds. The recently unveiled European Defense Industrial Strategy and its financial leg, the European Defense Industrial Program, aimed at encouraging greater cooperation among European defense manufacturers, are yet to be approved and receive at least minimal funding.
We have found in our field visits there are numerous challenges and adaptations going on across Europe to properly train and equip Ukraine for the emerging “cyberpunk form of warfare” that “is blending old fighting styles with new technology.” Speaking to dozens of different European military advisors, we ask about how trainers keep the curriculum current as battlefield conditions in Ukraine change—something most of the trainers have never experienced firsthand. Some trainers respond that they watch open-source videos on social media on a regular basis to observe Russian and Ukrainian battlefield adaptations. Other advisors visit museums and libraries to dust off old doctrine and tactical manuals from World Wars I and II to understand how to provide appropriate techniques for trench warfare training. Most EUMAM personnel tell us that as teachers, they are now being trained by the trainees when it comes to understanding what modern warfare looks like.
There are other serious challenges in the current efforts to train Ukrainian soldiers. The most consistent among those EUMAM trainers cite are language and culture issues. We find the same is true based on our other visits with American, British, and Canadian military trainers. Some of the older German officers mention that their knowledge of East German military institutions helps them understand most of the organizational and doctrinal issues the Ukrainians face due to their shared Soviet legacies. The other common problem is a lack of Ukrainian transparency. Western trainers and apparently Ukrainian military leaders do not have adequate mechanisms to assess the effectiveness of specific training efforts, in terms of direct battlefield effects or on training efforts inside Ukraine. In other cases, Ukrainian authorities do not send soldiers that are appropriate for training programs across Europe. One Ukrainian soldier enrolled in the sapper course complains about how he was randomly thrown on a bus for this course even though he is a trained FPV (first-person view) drone operator with a year and a half of experience. These conversations are a common feature in all of our visits.
Visiting the training base for Leopard tanks, we are greeted by the Danish commanding officer that tells us all about the twelve Ukrainian tank crews his combined Danish-German unit is training. He shows us across the training compound, to include the virtual tank training facility where we observe dozens of highly motivated Ukrainian soldiers sitting at computers with Leopard gunnery wheels attached. Using an upgraded version of the commercially available Steel Beasts, we watch Ukrainian crew members fight enemy tanks on their digital battlefield. Elsewhere, we see the Ukrainian tank drivers receiving basic maintenance training.
As the day with the Danish commanding officer wraps up, he tells us how the Ukrainians want to integrate drones into the Leopard tank training. He laments that the six-week course is about mastering tank maneuver and tactics, and the addition of drones would further complicate Ukrainian training. However, without drones, Ukrainian soldiers, trained in Europe to quickly maneuver these tanks in formation, return home to continue using their tanks mainly as artillery. The Danish commanding officer hopes the Ukrainians will use the Leopard tank for its speed, boasting that “these tanks are meant to purr quickly across the battlefield.” Yet, this degree of maneuver has been absent from battlefields in Ukraine since the end of Ukraine’s fall 2022 counteroffensive and the onset of Russian defense in depth. Those of us who have visited Ukraine can confirm that indeed tanks are used more as fixed artillery: as these expensive pieces of equipment are vulnerable to attack from relatively cheap drones, Ukrainians are seeking to preserve Western military kit to avoid testing their allies’ generosity.
Several broad policy questions emerge concerning American and European security assistance as the Russo-Ukrainian War is well into its third year. First, is the EU willing to pursue its elevated security ambitions regardless of the continuity and level of US commitment going forward? Surprised with the strength of its own response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Europe is more able than at any time in recent decades able to at least fathom a greater degree of self-reliance on European defense. Yet, European security requires investment in these countries’ defense if the EU seriously plans to fulfill its military ambitions.
Second, what does EU assistance to Ukraine mean for the EU security posture? Formal EU involvement in the conflict has opened new avenues of collaboration, as the non-NATO militaries of Cyprus and Ireland contribute forces to train Ukrainians. Divisions exist: Hungary, a NATO and EU member, partially opposes EUMAM, and Austria, an EU member but non-NATO state, supports the mission but is not actively part of it. The EU parliamentary elections and elections in specific EU countries impact collaboration, a fact that is integral to Russia’s strategic calculations.
Finally, what does European strategic autonomy look like, and how does assistance to Ukraine (re)shape that concept? While visiting the EU Military Planning and Conduct Capability strategic headquarters in Brussels, it became apparent that the politics of the conflict are reshaping European unity and consensus. Some EU member states are more comfortable considering what it means for the EU to exercise strategic autonomy, outside the orbit of NATO, to more forcefully oppose Russia’s imperial ambitions in Ukraine. Other EU military staff and planners reluctantly mention that European strategic autonomy should be unified around consensus in Brussels, and not be as provocative as Paris is with its attempt at steering the EU toward confrontation with Moscow.
More at the link!
I’d like to emphasize these two pieces from the MWI assessment:
One says, “No doctrine or manual exists in NATO for this type of war.”
Most EUMAM personnel tell us that as teachers, they are now being trained by the trainees when it comes to understanding what modern warfare looks like.
There’s a reason I talk about the need to understand our allies’, partners’, competitors’, and adversaries’ understanding and ways of war. That they are not always the same as ours and that without an understanding of how these things differ from our own we are always at a strategic disadvantage.
One additional point for full disclosure: I have a publication with the Modern War Institute.
For those wondering what is going on with Russia’s nuclear doctrine:
This is a must-watch interview. Olaf Scholz must watch it not daily, but every second hour! https://t.co/mdfXYQgMGN pic.twitter.com/iQto3UbxVr
— Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M (@sumlenny) June 11, 2024
This is the best interview on Russian #NuclearMongering I have ever seen. Watch brilliant @walberque
from @StimsonCenter, a former @IISS_org Technology and Arms Control Director, explaining complicated things. This is a part of our @EuroResilience interview with William Alberque, the full interview under a link below ⬇️
Russian occupied Crimea:
The work continues.@GeneralStaffUA reports that overnight our defense forces again attacked the russian anti-aircraft missile systems stationed in the temporarily occupied Crimea.
This time, one S-300 division near Belbek, as well as two S-400 divisions near Belbek and… pic.twitter.com/GBKp6NeTBS
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 12, 2024
The work continues.
@GeneralStaffUA reports that overnight our defense forces again attacked the russian anti-aircraft missile systems stationed in the temporarily occupied Crimea.
This time, one S-300 division near Belbek, as well as two S-400 divisions near Belbek and Sevastopol, were attacked.
Two radars of the S-300 and S-400 systems were destroyed. Regarding the third radar, information is being clarified.
The detonation of munitions was recorded in all three areas where the anti-aircraft missile systems were stationed.Excellent job, warriors!
Glory to Ukraine!
Head of the GUR Kyrylo Budanov said that Russia has placed elements of its most modern air defense system S-500 Prometheus in occupied Crimea.
“The latest elements of the S-500 have appeared. This is, in principle, an experimental application. Well, they have already appeared… pic.twitter.com/0QVzSI3gyC
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) June 12, 2024
Head of the GUR Kyrylo Budanov said that Russia has placed elements of its most modern air defense system S-500 Prometheus in occupied Crimea.
“The latest elements of the S-500 have appeared. This is, in principle, an experimental application. Well, they have already appeared there,” he said.
He added that the Kerch Bridge is still being used by Russia, mainly for personnel transportation.
Pokrovsk:
Not good at all. This is the key highway connecting Ukraine’s main cities in the Donbas still under Kyiv’s control. There are other smaller roads to bypass it but they are awful. It would present huge logistical challenges for Ukraine if Russia gets fire control over the highway. https://t.co/Ow3BGJL4c9
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) June 12, 2024
Petrovsky, Donetsk Oblast:
/2. Location of the fallen Russian OFAB-250-270 right next to hospital number 14 in Donetsk
(47.9437486, 37.5971732) @GeoConfirmed @neonhandrail pic.twitter.com/8KsJrKML7y— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 12, 2024
Fallen Russian airbomb OFAB-250-270 with UMPK guidance kit. As Donetsk media write themselves: “Lies near hospital No. 14 in the Petrovsky district of Donetsk”.
If this bomb had exploded as it fell, every Russian media would now write that Ukraine is striking hospitals.
Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast:
Bakhmut, Donetsk region.
A Ukrainian drone overcame Russian electronic warfare. About 70,000 people used to live in Bakhmut.
Now, there isn’t a single building there that hasn’t been damaged by Russian attacks.
🎥: 24th Separate Assault Battalion “Aidar” pic.twitter.com/KWI7YiHP4O
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 12, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here’s some adjacent material.
A story of friendship between a border guard and Yasha the dog from the combat zone.
“He was asking for food all the time, he was dirty and weak. I couldn’t pass him by, so now Yasha is here and accompanies me all over Ukraine,” border guard Andrii shared.
Now, wherever Andrii… pic.twitter.com/ejcP7NRpRz
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 12, 2024
A story of friendship between a border guard and Yasha the dog from the combat zone.
“He was asking for food all the time, he was dirty and weak. I couldn’t pass him by, so now Yasha is here and accompanies me all over Ukraine,” border guard Andrii shared.
Now, wherever Andrii is, Yasha is always with him: at the front line, he “tells” him when to hide from enemy shells, and in the rear, he patrols the border areas with his owner.
📹: SBGSU
YY_Sima Qian
If NATO no longer has appropriate doctrine for trench warfare, perhaps its member should help Ukraine develop one.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: Or, perhaps, Ukraine should help NATO develop one.
Nukular Biskits
Trying to keep with the flood of information you put here every night, Adam, is like trying to drink from a firehose.
I’m gonna have to start bookmarking the long ones (or the one with a lot of interesting material) for the weekends.
Thanks!
Adam L Silverman
@Nukular Biskits: You’re welcome.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Nobody has a doctrine for modern trench warfare.
Early on I pointed out that Ukrainian trenches were not good, ruZZian ones were absolute crap and easily spotted from the garbage piles they created by just chucking stuff out of the trench.
I shipped Slava all my WWI engineering manuals on trench engineering and tunneling, WWII engineering manuals on bunker building.
I still see combat vids of Ukrainian trenches that are too wide, not deep enough, don’t have drainage, duck boards, shoring, grenade pits, firing platforms.
I see “bunkers” with a single layer of logs and sandbags, that will barely survive an RPG hit, let alone a 155mm shell or a 250kilo glide bomb. Bunkers need 3 layers of 8″ timbers, with a single layer of sandbags between each layer and on top, then 12″ of coarse gravel as a “bursting” layer, then sod or plants as natural camo.
Now, with the “drone wars”, you also need IR barriers, drone netting or cages, and overhead camo along the whole trench line. Bunkers need vented stove exhausts to hide from IR, generators to charge batteries and Starlinks, while hidden from IR.
And that is just to protect a trench and the soldiers in it.
The ruzZian’s seem to have gotten better about not marking their trenches with piles of garbage, and have added “rat holes”. 1,2,3 man “bunkers”, often in a shell crater, with a 3 foot entrance hole behind their trench lines, that they retreat to when attacked, and counter attack from, flanking the attack teams.
And then there are the tanks and IFV’s issues with gun depression and vulnerability to close fires.
Add in the mines,……
Yeah, nobody has it figured out yet, many, many pieces.
ISIL did figure out one piece of the puzzle. Unlike “turtle tanks”, trying to use “shed roofs” to defeat FPV drones, they used mylar covered with camo, over a square frame and draped down the sides, to hide their tanks, VBIEDs from IR and NV, and it seemed to work.
Jay
As always, thank you Adam.
Bill Arnold
The (34 minute at 1.0x) William Alberque video (about nuclear doctrine/threats focused on Russia) is non-irritating, and dense for a video. (That is a big compliment.) A bit glib in a few places:
– there is considerable academic argument about the fertility of tundra/taiga in a hotter world, and generally, some of the shifts in agriculture zones, including changes in precipitation patterns, will be rapid enough that agriculture will have a difficult time tracking them.
– warfare has been changing more than his dismissive assertion. Drones in particular, but e.g. active compromise of information systems (both military and civilian, and during the conflict, not just at the beginning) and control of/influence over the information spaces of polities, are both significant. (No showy explosions for the later two, though.)
– we’re also not seeing active defenses akin to the Israeli Trophy system being (heavily) currently used in the Russia/Ukraine war to protect high-value equipment and personnel vs slower projectiles.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: I was under the assumption that NATO is not interested in trench warfare. That’s why I didn’t say NATo developing one for Ukraine.
Carlo Graziani
It might be worth it to the Ukrainians to fire one or two ATACMS at Kerch, just to test the performance and characteristic response of the S-500. The data could be valuable in figuring out how to defeat it.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/OlgaNYC1211/status/1800874557219225772#m
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: I was saving that for tomorrow night in case it was a slow news day.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: I see the Russians, Ukrainians & Israelis all using cope cages. Even the PLA is adding cope cages on AFVs during exercises. Nobody is taking lessons from ISIS?
Anoniminous
NATO has the doctrine and equipment to halt the Red Army and Warsaw Pact forces from conquering West Germany.
Fight a war in the 21st Century? Not so much.
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
Sorry for the bigfoot.
Anoniminous
@Bill Arnold:
Tundra soil lacks nutrients, specially nitrogen and phosphorus, needed for even small scale agriculture. Taiga soil is thin, rocky, acidic, and also lacks essential plant nutrients. Siberia becoming the breadbasket of the world sounds like something those idiots at RAND would come-up with.
Anoniminous
@YY_Sima Qian:
The French, Belgium, British, and German Armies weren’t interested in trench warfare in 1914 either. The machine gun was supposed to carry pin the enemy down so the cavalry and infantry could rush in for the assault. Didn’t work out that way. Seems the generals forgot the other side had machine guns too.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
“cope” cages vary, only the fixed ones for an emplaced piece acting as arty, with a flexible mesh seem to work against drones, by entangling them.
a bunch of the ruZZian ones were supposed to protect against top attack ATGM’s, not drones, none seem to have worked.
The only “cope cage” that seems to have worked was on a T-80MS, sort of. The reactive armor on that machine was replaced by 2-3″ thick composite armor, the “cope cage” was covered with the reactive armor, a separate “triangular cope cage” was built for the engine deck, (to make drone dropped explosives roll off), and a bustle was added to the turret for a gen set and a bunch of jammers, then covered with a cope cage and camo.
The Ukrainian drone came in from the side, through a gap, went boom, and took about an inch out of the up-armor.
Having had their “door knocked”, the crew decided to r-u-n-n-o-f-t, with out shutting down the electrics, draining the battery and allowing Azov to capture it.
The ISIL “The Factory” system, allowed ISIL vehicles to appear to be parked civilian trucks or a building during the day, and at night, evade IR and NV drone spotting, as a result, they could get to their “last mile” at night and then attack during the early day.
Anoniminous
@Jay:
NV drone?
Jay
@Anoniminous:
and then there is the permafrost, which is mostly a mix of peat, frozen ice, CO2, methane, which is melting.
The peat is good, sterile seed starter, but has no nutrients, and back in the day, when it last melted, swallowed mammoth’s whole, and then, because it could not even support bacteria, preserved their bodies intact for centuries.
Don’t see how just a crappy tractor will address the issues.
Even more, when you can’t drive a John Deere into ruZZia because John Deere geofenced it.
Jay
@Anoniminous:
Night Vision. Starlight.
Bunch of different machine vision choices for drones, some have a mix.
Hiding from each requires a different mix of tech.
IR requires a thermal shield or diffuser. Mylar film works well. We were using it in the early 80’s.
NV requires a camo, either dense, or low light reflective. Ghillie suits of the right fabric work well, with the hands and face covered, enough natural vedge piled on works as well, but you need a lot.
The drone issue is it has become very hard to hide, and quite a few can “kill you” or “say hello to my little friend” that can kill you.
The newest Ukrainian Baga Yaga drone, can carry and drop a 22kg dual shaped charge “bomb” and has some armor against small caliber weapons over the electronics which also adds some jamming resistance, they hunt at night. What they hit, they kill.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/IAPonomarenko/status/1800850881857908812#m
Anoniminous
@Jay:
NIGHT VISION!!!! Of course
dimmsdale
Thank you, Adam, for a monumental body of work.
Thank you, commenters, for the expertise you share.
I feel very lucky to be able to take it all in, thanks to you.
Westyny
Thank you, Adam. I hope the billions the EU has earmarked from frozen and confiscated Russian assets help and get to Ukraine soon.
Gloria DryGarden
Thank you. I’m really happy to read about how much aid is now going to Ukraine from so many countries in Europe. And all the trainings. It’s very heartening.
Good to hear about repair shops opening right in Ukraine, to fix things more easily. I feel heartened by all of this happening.
it sounds like jay could be helping in Europe, with devising new ways for the changing tech and variables.
so much expertise amongst the commenters. I had no idea how technical war has gotten.
this is my first time reading one of your posts, this war is so upsetting to me, I usually can’t stand to think about it. It was, however, very readable, and hopeful. And understandable for a non military person.
sweet dog story, too.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam