(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is still doing excellent. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.
Second, because of the debate this evening, I’m going to keep this short.
Here’s the accounting from last night’s bombardments.
Night air attack on Ukraine:
5 out of 6 missiles and all 23 Shahed drones targeting western Ukraine were downed. Only Kinzhal missile wasn’t intercepted. Russia keeps testing Ukrainian air defenses, exploiting any gaps. pic.twitter.com/XizQo2lmEO
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 27, 2024
Russia hit Kharkiv with a guided FAB-500 bomb for the first time. It’s twice as powerful as KAB-250s Russia bombards the city with daily. Two bombs were launched from Su-34 in Belgorod region, covering 65 km. Luckily, this one didn’t explode. pic.twitter.com/7gawZ7gxVM
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 27, 2024
Russian forces used the FAB-500 glide bomb, equipped with a correction module, for the first time in an attack on Kharkiv, according to Prosecutor Filchakov. This bomb, launched from an Su-34 in Belgorod at a distance of 65 km, is twice as powerful as the KAB-250 and FAB-250. pic.twitter.com/RPchWjKAXP
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) June 27, 2024
Tallyho!
A Ukrainian Mikoyan MiG-29 launches two AASM-250 bombs against Russian positions in Russia’s Belgorod region….
…and color me surprised, there’s no “MAJOR NUCLEAR ESCALATION” or “WORLD WAR III”.
What happens in reality is Ukraine fighting back and making Russia sustain losses… pic.twitter.com/1Kdifeijlm
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 27, 2024
A Ukrainian Mikoyan MiG-29 launches two AASM-250 bombs against Russian positions in Russia’s Belgorod region….
…and color me surprised, there’s no “MAJOR NUCLEAR ESCALATION” or “WORLD WAR III”.
What happens in reality is Ukraine fighting back and making Russia sustain losses and become less capable of continuing and escalating its war on Ukraine.
That’s the way a war of defense works, as opposite to the brain-dead “SURRENDER NOW, ALL KNEEL TO PUTIN” cult on X.
Last night in comments David The Establishment Koch asked:
Any thoughts on Assange. Was this part of a below the surface exchange?
Second question first: Not that I’m aware of. He’s an Australian national and since they’re not holding any Americans, I have no idea who we’d be exchanging him for.
Overall, while I’m not a fan of the Espionage Act, but Assange was never a journalist and never an honest broker. He did significant damage to the US and our allies. I don’t know if five years in a British prison sufficient punishment. I do know that Assange is incorrigible and I fully expect he’ll get himself in trouble again in short order.
Well this happened:
A network of pro-Kremlin accounts on X pushed fake Fox News articles in the hours ahead of Thursday’s presidential debate, attempting to spread false narratives including one about former President Trump’s support in the business community. https://t.co/4ttmaC4Nho
— NBC News (@NBCNews) June 27, 2024
Who could have possibly imagined?
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address to the European Council from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Every European Nation that Shares Common European Values Should Be Part of the European Family – Speech of the President of Ukraine at the European Council Meeting
27 June 2024 – 18:00
Thank you, Charles, Mr. President!
Dear colleagues, dear Ursula!
I am grateful to you that during these very difficult years for all of us, for Europe, we have maintained unity and ensured that Europe is stronger. The world has seen Europe’s effectiveness – has seen our ability to find the right decision at the right time.
Dear friends!
The EU approved a negotiation framework for Ukraine. And negotiations on our country’s accession have already begun. Thank you very much for it. This is Europe’s historic choice. Thank you again. I am convinced that every European nation that shares common European values should be part of the European family. This is true for Ukraine, this is true for Moldova, for the peoples of the Balkans. I am sure Georgia’s moment will come. And I am sure that there will be decisions regarding Belarus, because it is also a European nation that should be in a united Europe in the future.
Now it will be right for us to move from decision to decision without wasting time. We have already held the first intergovernmental conference between Ukraine and the EU, and we hope that the next steps will not be delayed, including the official screening procedure. Ukraine is ready to go through all the necessary steps.
I would also like to thank you for the security agreements. Today, Charles Michel, Ursula von der Leyen and I signed the Joint Security Commitments with the EU; together with President Nausėda, I signed the security agreement between Ukraine and Lithuania, and together with Prime Minister Kallas – the security agreement between Ukraine and Estonia. And I invite everyone in Europe who is still on the sidelines of this security work to join us.
And one more thing that is important to mention.
In May, Putin tried to expand the war by launching a new offensive in the east of our country. Thanks to the bravery of our people and the decisions of you, of our partners, we stopped this Russian offensive. But this new Russian offensive proved that the existing pressure on Russia for the war is not enough. And so…
First, I wanted to mention military support.
Artillery, shells, and fulfillment of every promise is important not only in terms of protecting lives, but also to destroy the Russian illusion that they will achieve something by war. Funding is important – through the European Peace Facility, and on a bilateral basis, – funding that is timely. As well as logistics, so that each package that is announced comes to the battlefield as soon as possible.
Second, air shield and long-range capabilities.
We are managing to bring security back to Kharkiv, one of the largest cities in Ukraine, security from Russian missiles. This is due to the elimination of Russian missile launchers near our border – each of you knows how this became possible. Also, we must protect Kharkiv and every other city in Ukraine from Russian guided bombs. That is a big problem. Our long-range strikes and modern air defense are the key to stopping this terror. I thank each and every one of you who is helping to make this happen.
The third is Russian assets.
I am grateful for the decisions that provide Ukraine with financial resources from frozen Russian assets. It is fair that the assets of the terrorist state work to protect Ukraine suffering from Russian terror. And all the assets of the terrorist state should work to protect life, of course. We must find the right way to confiscate all these assets.
And now we see how the sanctions against Russian oligarchs started to be lifted. We must stop this and strengthen sanctions, because Putin’s regime rests on such money.
The fourth is energy. Closer to winter it really can be the first.
Putin wages an all-out-war against our energy sector. It is our duty to prevent Russia from setting a precedent for destroying the energy of an entire nation. If Russia succeeds, it will become part of military doctrines around the world. Energy is one of the foundations of normal human life. We do everything we can to restore the power generation and protect this generation. And we need a significant increase in electricity imports from the EU, as well as support with equipment and other resources to protect and restore our energy system.
And the fifth is diplomacy.
I thank all of you for participating in the Peace Summit, which was a clear success of our peacemaking efforts. We proved that the world can unite to restore the full effectiveness of the UN Charter and return peace to Ukraine. Nine more participants have signed the final Communiqué of the Summit, and we are continuing this work with more signatures to come. I also invite you to join the preparations of the second Peace Summit. We are now organizing groups that will work on developing specific action plans – to bring the just end of the war – reliably, honestly, and for a long time. We need as much joint effort as possible to achieve this.
Europe has proven that it can be efficient! I thank you for that. Thank you for your support!
I am grateful for the historic Belgian Presidency of the EU, and I wish the next one, the Hungarian Presidency, to be effective.
Glory to Ukraine!
Lithuania:
Thank you for your unwavering support and this crucial decision!
Together, we are stronger.
🇺🇦🤝🇱🇹 https://t.co/hXXfgWXFqO— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 27, 2024
If a country hires someone to burn down buildings in another country, that’s not a “hybrid attack”, that’s state-sponsored terrorism. pic.twitter.com/wbUfDaIBsE
— Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) June 27, 2024
Estonia:
Honoured to be nominated as the candidate for High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Your trust means a lot.
We must continue working together to ensure Europe is an effective global partner to keep our citizens free, safe and prosperous. pic.twitter.com/pbQEWjGjA2
— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) June 27, 2024
Israel:
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 27, 2024
The Financial Times has the details:
The US, Israel and Ukraine are in talks to supply Kyiv with up to eight Patriot air defence systems, dramatically improving its ability to counter Russian air strikes.
While not finalised, the arrangement would likely involve the highly prized Patriot systems being sent first from Israel to the US, before being delivered to Ukraine.
The outlines of the deal, which would mark a shift in Israel’s relations with Moscow, have been discussed between ministers and senior officials of the three countries, according to five people briefed on the negotiations.
Israel said in April that it would begin retiring its eight Patriot batteries, which date back more than 30 years, and replacing them with more advanced systems.
But the batteries, which have been used in Israel’s current war with Hamas, have not yet been discontinued due to concerns that tensions with the Iran-backed Hizbollah militant group could erupt into a full-blown war.
If realised, such a transfer would represent a step change in Ukraine’s defensive capabilities. The country currently has at least four Patriot systems, supplied by both the US and Germany.
Ukraine has frequently requested that western allies supply it with air defence systems, in particular the US-made Patriots. Last week, the US announced that it was pausing the delivery of Patriot interceptor missiles to other nations to prioritise supply to Ukraine.
Israel has been cautious about taking sides over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine given the clout Moscow holds in Syria, where the Israeli air force often acts against Iranian proxies.
While there’s more at the link, this is the key paragraph:
But the batteries, which have been used in Israel’s current war with Hamas, have not yet been discontinued due to concerns that tensions with the Iran-backed Hizbollah militant group could erupt into a full-blown war.
And the reason it’s the key paragraph is there is no way that Israel is going to give up any weapons systems, let alone Patriots, as long they are 1) still fighting in Gaza and 2) considering going into Lebanon to fight Hezbullah.
Hungary:
Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy in animated discussion before an EU leaders’ meeting in Brussels this afternoon.
Oh to have the audio… pic.twitter.com/bewusSwtQ5
— Henry Foy (@HenryJFoy) June 27, 2024
For you M1A1 Abrams enthusiasts:
🇺🇸 Abrams tank in service with 🇺🇦 warriors.@United24media team talked to the Ukrainian crew of an M1A1 Abrams tank in eastern Ukraine to find out how they perform on the battlefield and what challenges they face. pic.twitter.com/9b6tiVxsnW
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 27, 2024
Chasiv Yar:
Russia keeps hammering Chasiv Yar with thermobaric bombs… Ukraine’s 24th Mechanized keeps holding on. pic.twitter.com/yy41fAVUSC
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 27, 2024
Kharkiv Oblast:
The heroic work of a tank crew in the Kharkiv region.
Under heavy fire, the warriors strike at the enemy’s positions, and even after being hit by the enemy FPV-drones, they continue their fight and destroy the occupiers.
And after the mission the tank successfully returns to 🇺🇦… pic.twitter.com/lRMRlmKDff— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 27, 2024
The heroic work of a tank crew in the Kharkiv region.
Under heavy fire, the warriors strike at the enemy’s positions, and even after being hit by the enemy FPV-drones, they continue their fight and destroy the occupiers.
And after the mission the tank successfully returns to 🇺🇦 positions.📹: 92nd Assault Brigade
Vuhledar front:
Russians attacked Ukrainian positions on the Vuhledar front this morning. As said, three Russian tanks were destroyed and two more damaged. https://t.co/VQWwpZL1wM pic.twitter.com/5hKcmAWaAU
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 27, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
Thanks
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re also welcome.
TeezySkeezy
Have a feeling that tonight any accusations toward Adam of being unreasonably gloomy about the future will be a bit muted.
Thanks for the update, though, Adam.
Comrade Bukharin
Ukraine has seven months to figure out what to do before Trump takes office.
TeezySkeezy
@Comrade Bukharin: I think they should probably break the seal on whatever Trump plan they have and commit to it now, whatever it is. Because it’s not looking good. And of course I’ve felt this way for awhile; anyone just coming to this feeling tonight has been asleep.
Jay
@Comrade Bukharin:
A) The Felon isn’t going to take office,
B) Ukraine no longer relies on the US, they rely on the EU/NATO because the EU/NATO has stepped up where the US has shirked.
C) The EU/NATO has realized that the US is not a reliable partner and are making their own plans/programs to compensate for that issue.
Comrade Bukharin
@Jay: I agree with you on C.
Geminid
@Jay: I agree with you on A, B and C.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
TeezySkeezy
@Comrade Bukharin: But do you think C is anywhere close to enough? It’s certainly no replacement for US support, but is it enough? Doubtful.
wjca
If commenters here, and liberals generally, were even vaguely accurate in their negative predictions on elections, the US would have been a fascist dictatorship without elections for at least half a century. Yet somehow, elections keep happening. A lot of the time, liberals actually win them.
Not to say that Trump can’t win this one. But anyone wants me to be that he will best be offering very long odds.
bjacques
Thanks as always, Adam.
I hope one thing Zelenskyy told Orbán is that all his accommodation to Putin and talk of peace will count for nothing if Ukraine falls. Russian tanks will roll into Budapest once again, and Orbàn will be remembered as the man who sold his country out. For old times sake, he may even be summoned to Moscow to be shot, like Imre Nagy, or killed off slowly in a penal colony, like Navalny.
YY_Sima Qian
@wjca: The debate(s) is not going to decide the election. Trump has a serious chance in winning I Nov., which is not a good sign for the health of liberal democracy in America, but that was as true before the debate last night as after. I would not put the chance of Trump winning in Nov. at > 50%, & that was as true before the debate as after.
Jay
@TeezySkeezy:
People forget that Allied rearming didn’t start until 1936, and didn’t “get there” until 1943. 7 years to switch to a war economy, and that was with much simpler weapons, much simpler factories.
The EU/Non-US NATO and other supporters, (Australia, etc) started providing the great majority of all aid, military/civilian, to Ukraine, more than a year ago.
Eg. The shell crisis.
Problem #1, shortages of explosives and propellants. Global production peaked in 2022. Everybody was all 3 shifts. So new plants had to be built, workers trained, and of course, nobody want’s an explosive factory next door. Much of the processes in 1941 that were manual, are now automated, so machines needed to be ordered (often very complex), then built.
Back in the day, (1990’s) it took 18 months to update and reconfigure an automotive assembly line, ramping up takes a lot of time, money and will.