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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Of course you can have champagne before noon. That’s why orange juice was invented.

Is trump is trying to break black America over his knee? signs point to ‘yes’.

Republicans got rid of McCarthy. Democrats chose not to save him.

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

The low info voters probably won’t even notice or remember by their next lap around the goldfish bowl.

Do we throw up our hands or do we roll up our sleeves? (hint, door #2)

Oppose, oppose, oppose. do not congratulate. this is not business as usual.

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

I don’t recall signing up for living in a dystopian sci-fi novel.

It’s a good piece. click on over. but then come back!!

The line between political reporting and fan fiction continues to blur.

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

If you tweet it in all caps, that makes it true!

Tick tock motherfuckers!

Most of you should go to bed and try to be better Jackals in the morning.

I desperately hope that, yet again, i am wrong.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires Republicans to act in good faith.

If a good thing happens for a bad reason, it’s still a good thing.

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

Their boy Ron is an empty plastic cup that will never know pudding.

Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

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You are here: Home / Archives for 2024

Archives for 2024

Monday Night Open Thread

by John Cole|  August 12, 20249:37 pm| 198 Comments

This post is in: John Cole Presents "This Fucking Old House"

As I write this, Cheeto Benito and the worst thing to come out of South Africa this side of Oscar Pistorius, Elon Musk, are having a discussion on youtube because Elon’s 44 billion dollar political contribution that we know as Twitter but he calls X has once again shit the bed. The exact same thing that happened to Ron DeSantis last year. And I am not sure why anyone is surprised, because anyone who has used it could have told you that twitter has not improved over the past year. Basically Jack Dorsey is the car dealer who sold someone a Ferrari and then watched them fishtail out of the car lot and wreck into a telephone pole.

***

In other news, I spent the day driving feral cats to and back from the vet. There were a few bladder incidents, but I had tarps and pee pads down, and all in all they were remarkably well behaved despite being FERAL AS FUCK. Probably terrified.

I realized on the ride home that this is essentially the equivalent of an alien abduction for these cats. I can see it now- a bunch of old toms belly up at the bar:

Cletus the thicc orange boy– “Did I ever tell you about that time in 2024? I was minding my own business and I smell delicious rotisserie chicken, and Frank you know I love chicken.”

Frank, the tabby– “Don’t we all, Cletus, don’t we all.”

Cletus– “So I looked over and saw this chicken over there on a plate like a person just left it there, I walked tover to it and the next thing I know I hear this loud metal slamming sound and I am trapped in a cage. Whoever it was covered the crate up in a sheet so I couldn’t see nothing, and the next thing I know I am in this bright white room all lit up so I couldn’t even see. Next thing I remember, I was real woozy, the cage was opening up like nothing had ever happened, and my private parts were hurting like the dickens.”

Sam the Siamese at another table– “Oh god is Cletus going on about his supposed alien abduction again.”

Cletus– “Shut it Sam with God as my witness it happened.’

Serena, the svelte bombay waitress as she is walking by– “Sam he is telling the truth the same thing happened to me except it was tuna not chicken and my private parts hurt too like they probed me vaginally. And you know what? I haven’t gone into heat nor had a litter sense. Aliens made me barren.”

***

Anne Laurie talked about it earlier, but in all seriousness, I would fucking love it if we could have European style elections here. Candidates have to declare by 1 May, primaries from 1 June to 15 July, conventions in August, and election in November. That would be plenty of time.

And in regards to Walz’s 8 tracks, can you imagine trying to explain to digital kids how magnetic tapes using chromium oxide works?

Thats it for me. I’m tired.

Monday Night Open ThreadPost + Comments (198)

War for Ukraine Day 901: More on the Kursk Offensive

by Adam L Silverman|  August 12, 20247:46 pm| 21 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A quick housekeeping note. Rosie is still doing great. She’s got this week off as her next treatment is next Monday. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

I’m going to put the Kursk stuff after the jump so I don’t have to break it up.

The northern lights grace Kharkiv’s skies tonight😍 pic.twitter.com/thI41RJldZ

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) August 12, 2024

Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

War for Ukraine Day 901: More on the Kursk OffensivePost + Comments (21)

Monday Evening Open Thread: The Kidz Are Doing Their Best

by Anne Laurie|  August 12, 20247:26 pm| 120 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Kamala Harris for President, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Our Failed Media Experiment

I get a lot of "who runs the KHQ accounts" q's and I think it is important to note that it's a group of feral gen-zers with an endless stream of good ideas and minimal oversight.https://t.co/OO2iL1NwaB

— Rob Flaherty (@Rob_Flaherty) August 12, 2024

The ‘professionals’ (Ben Smith, Editor-in-chief of @semafor, Former @nytimes media columnist, @buzzfeednews EIC)… maybe not so much:

Is this just clickbait? Hey, let’s have a bunch of people run in primaries all summer then the winner ads water to the freeze dried billion dollar campaign operation in September!

He can’t really be this clueless about how US campaigns work.

Can he? https://t.co/OKeP6ScKQQ

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) August 12, 2024

I dunno. Weeks of fantastical blabbering about how it could be anyone other than Harris, & that it could wait until the convention, showed most ppl in the press have no idea about much of what goes on in campaigns, or the procedures & laws under which they operate.

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) August 12, 2024

If it doesn’t involve trying to influence the press most of the press has little or no interest in it. It’s a reason most in the press understand less about campaign finance than the average 22 yo finance assistant who’s been working for a Congressional campaign for 3 hrs

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) August 12, 2024

Monday Evening Open Thread: The Kidz Are Doing Their BestPost + Comments (120)

The Walz Content We All Need

by @heymistermix.com|  August 12, 20244:47 pm| 252 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

The Walz Content We All Need 1

Tim Walz has a restored Scout, because of course he does.  I wrote about my experience with a Scout as a kid a few years ago.

Here he is explaining how to use an 8-track from the driver’s seat of his Scout:

The seats look original to me, as does the spare tire cover. I can’t imagine it’s an original engine because they were shit, but maybe someone babied this thing.

The Walz Content We All NeedPost + Comments (252)

JD Can’t Serve

by @heymistermix.com|  August 12, 20242:11 pm| 200 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

JD Can't Serve

This is from drag queen Pattiegonia’s Instagram.  And, yes, bottom left, JD Vance in drag at Yale Law.  That’s the same JD who said yesterday that Tim Walz supports kidnapping kids who want to transition if their parents don’t agree.  Here’s the truth on that:

Walz has never signed any legislation, nor expressed support for legislation, that would allow the state to remove children from their parent’s custody if they didn’t consent to gender transition treatment. Walz has come under attack from Republicans for an April 2023 law he signed that protects transgender patients, parents and healthcare providers from out-of-state laws that would punish them for receiving care. Among other provisions, the law gives “temporary emergency jurisdiction” to state courts to arbitrate custody disputes that cross state lines and involve a debate between parents over the care in question. It does not give the state the authority to remove children from their parents’ custody for declining to pursue gender transition care, a Minnesota LGBTQ advocacy organization director told the Washington Post.

So, as Pattie asks, is JD a bitter homophobe because he couldn’t serve?  Your guess is as good as mine, but I’m not ruling it out.

(BTW here’s what serve means in this context.  It’s short for a something that many might find offensive so don’t click this link if you don’t want to be offended.)

JD Can’t ServePost + Comments (200)

Cash cards and ACA plans?

by David Anderson|  August 12, 20241:30 pm| 12 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance

I was getting my pre-professor start hair cut this afternoon. The place I go to plays an urban radio station for background noise. It is usually good background noise but an insurance broker ad really perked my interest. I am going to paraphrase it:

“Do you want free health insurance and a $500 cash card? If you are not on Medicare/Medicaid, earn under $50,000 and are under age 65, call XXX-867-5309 and our agents will check your zip code to see if you qualify for free health insurance and a cash card you can use to pay rent, or groceries or your cell bill…..”

This is an ACA pitch. The criteria of age, income and no other qualified coverage are the give-aways.

Zero premium plans are wicked common in the ACA with the ARPA/IRA enhanced subsidies. The two least expensive Silver plans are zero premium up to 150% Federal Poverty Level (~$22,000 for a single individual) and Bronze plans are typically zero premium well into the 200s and sometimes 300% FPL. Many insurers can plausibly offer zero premium Bronze plans. Typically we assume that marginal enrollees are picking only on price, but there is no price differentiation. These plans will not be substantially differentiated on benefits as the Max Out of Pockets Limits will be $7000 to $9000. Networks will differ but good networks will be attractive to individuals that risk adjust poorly so there is a strong incentive to race to the bottom. A cash card is effectively a price differentiation feature as it effectively makes a zero premium plan a negative premium plan if people know about it.

So I have a lot of questions.

The first one is how common are these cash cards?

If you have heard of an ad that sounds like a cash card for an ACA plan, can you put it into comments with a rough date and city or county and state.

This is interestingly weird. And on first thought, likely dumb.

Cash cards and ACA plans?Post + Comments (12)

Stump Speeches, So Boring

by @heymistermix.com|  August 12, 202411:12 am| 327 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Stump Speeches, So Boring

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are going to repeat themselves, with variations and additions, for the next few days. That’s just how it works. Here’s a good thread on why that bores the media:
Stump Speeches, So Boring 1

campaigns understand this, they get that most people are not watching youtube livestreams of their stumps speeches. so a big part of campaigning is figuring out how to *break through* to these lesser engaged populations.

one way is the tour + stump speech.

this gets interested people out to see you speak, hear your (and your surrogates’) pitches, gets clips on the local news, etc. but this means the stump speech is **the same** everywhere you go. a simple message you are repeating in lots of media markets to push it through to the non-junkies

heres the thing: for reporters who follow the campaigns around, this is *boring.* hearing the same speech 2 or 3 times…kinda annoying. hearing it 2 or 3 times a day gets stale real fast. early on there is enough tweaking that they can fixate on the changes and read tea leaves. later…not so much

bc these are solipsistic morons, when they get bored, they tend to impute that to the campaign. “i’m bored, so the speech must be stale. the campaign must be Out of Ideas.” a disconnect between how they receive the campaign messaging and how normal people do. this is a problem campaigns must manage!

trump is not like this. he goes up and rambles extemporaneously. most of it is nonsense. but it is *different.* and therefore interesting, and exciting. political reporters enjoy this constant newness more the boring (but effective) repeated stump speech. this is a big reason they like trump.

“he makes our job less boring” is somehow an even worse reason to give trump glowing coverage than “he generates clicks/sells papers.” unfortunately, our political media is filled with absolute dullards who cannot stop gazing at their own navels. this is a major driving force of pro-trump coverage.

whether they do it consciously or not, this is also why they clean up his ramblings. if they *punished* him for it by printing them verbatim in the paper, then he might stop. and that’d be bad! then he’d be normal and boring. so instead they facilitate him. for their own amusement.

Marcy Wheeler makes another important point:

This is actually the purpose rallies are supposed to serve at this point of a campaign, even one launched a mere three weeks ago. These crowds are important not (just) because they lead Trump to melt down, but because they’re a necessary way to catch up on volunteer recruitment Biden hadn’t been doing. This is why Walz, especially, makes an ask at every one of these rallies. This is why Kamala always talks about the hard work ahead.

This is about recruiting bodies to do voter identification, persuasion, and ultimately GOTV. This is about basic campaign work.

Trump, meanwhile, has sent JD out to speak to empty parking lots.

Anyway, you probably all know this but there are a lot of people who don’t.

Stump Speeches, So BoringPost + Comments (327)

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