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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

You know it’s bad when the Project 2025 people have to create training videos on “How To Be Normal”.

Their shamelessness is their super power.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

You’re just a puppy masquerading as an old coot.

So many bastards, so little time.

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

The cruelty is the point; the law be damned.

Humiliatingly small and eclipsed by the derision of millions.

Every reporter and pundit should have to declare if they ever vacationed with a billionaire.

Narcissists are always shocked to discover other people have agency.

Reality always gets a vote in the end.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. keep building.

This chaos was totally avoidable.

Trump’s cabinet: like a magic 8 ball that only gives wrong answers.

Weird. Rome has an American Pope and America has a Russian President.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

We do not need to pander to people who do not like what we stand for.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

Republicans don’t lie to be believed, they lie to be repeated.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

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You are here: Home / Archives for 2024

Archives for 2024

The damage is done

by @heymistermix.com|  February 28, 20241:21 pm| 141 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Mitch McConnell just announced his retirement as Minority Leader on the floor of the Senate, effective in November.  If, Dios Mediante, Democrats hold the Senate, my only prediction is that his replacement will be worse.

The damage is donePost + Comments (141)

I used to be seventeen – now you’re just like me

by @heymistermix.com|  February 28, 202412:50 pm| 82 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Tyler Boebert, Lauren’s oldest, who fathered at child at 17, is now 18 and in a shitpot of trouble:

  • Four felony counts of criminal possession of ID documents – multiple victims
  • One felony count of conspiracy to commit a felony
  • Over 15 misdemeanor and petty offenses

A year and a half ago, Tyler got a reckless driving citation for a crash that seriously injured a friend.  Last month, Lauren’s husband Jayson was arrested for third-degree assault, harassment and prohibited use of a firearm.  At that time, Tyler reported that his father came home drunk and they had a fight where Jayson tried to pull teeth out of Tyler’s mouth, and then Jayson carried a rifle around the house.  This is on the heels of Jayson and Lauren getting into a fight in a restaurant in Silt (their hometown in CO-3), which resulted in Jayson claiming that Lauren punched him, and Lauren getting a restraining order.

Lauren claims she’s moved to Colorado’s 4th district from the 3rd, but all of this is happening in CO-3, so that’s probably a lie.  My question at this point is whether the voters in CO-4 want to spend the extra money on law enforcement and court staffing that will be necessary when the Boeberts move into your district.

Also, for a moment I wondered if it was worth writing something about an 18 year-old, then I saw this piece of projection:

I used to be seventeen - now you're just like me

I used to be seventeen – now you’re just like mePost + Comments (82)

This and That on Wednesday Morning

by WaterGirl|  February 28, 202410:35 am| 197 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics

You may have already heard the Judge Cannon came out with two rulings last night – rulings that came down on the side of the DOJ and not the indicted former guy.

Judge Cannon’s ruling is correct and obvious, and avoids her getting reversed for a 3rd time by the Eleventh Circuit. Predict she will also reverse herself on full disclosure of witness names/statements (for same reason). Many more motions for her to decide… https://t.co/7WFHtYDCvd

— Andrew Weissmann (weissmann11 on Threads)🌻 (@AWeissmann_) February 28, 2024

I would so like to be a fly on the wall to know what caused the sudden turnabout, but I’m guessing it’s more that her back was against the wall than that she was suddenly driven by some new-found urge to get this right.   Now, not only did she give Jack Smith another opportunity to spell things out in his public filings – ever so clearly in very plain language – but her actions resulted in Jack Smith having to spell out exactly how dangerous those documents are.

Cannon did the right thing by not permitting Nauta & DeOliveira to access the classified MAL docs.

But don’t overlook the epic self-own here. Bc of this effort, she has now been extensively briefed on the contents of those docs & why their disclosure is harmful to nat’l security https://t.co/Ml1ymX5Zpt

— Secrets and Laws (@secretsandlaws) February 28, 2024

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This and That on Wednesday MorningPost + Comments (197)

Wednesday Morning Open Thread: Pastor Speaker Johnson Is A (More-or-Less) Human Speed Bump

by Anne Laurie|  February 28, 20248:39 am| 147 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republican Venality, Republicans in Disarray!

Mike Johnson looks like a small, scared little man next to Kamala Harris. pic.twitter.com/nTERWs3a0p

— Alex Cole (@acnewsitics) February 27, 2024


… Mostly because Johnson is a small, scared little man. (I swear, VP Harris should’ve pulled a spin on the famous Dick Gregory routine, and threatened to kiss him right on the lips… )

Speaker Mike Johnson says "the border" is America's top need, even though he scuttled bipartisan border security legislation just weeks ago pic.twitter.com/Gfh9DG081v

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) February 27, 2024

The NYTimes is piously saddened for poor little Mr. Johnson — “As Spending Talks Intensify, Johnson’s Bind Grows Tighter” [gift link]:

At an intense meeting inside the Oval Office on Tuesday, Speaker Mike Johnson was the odd man out.

President Biden made clear that the speaker’s positions were out of step with other leaders in government, as did Vice President Kamala Harris. The top Democrats in the House and Senate did, too. Even Senator Mitch McConnell, his fellow G.O.P. leader on the other side of the Capitol, emphasized the need for the speaker to avoid a government shutdown and provide badly needed aid to Ukraine.

With time running out to respond to two crises — a partial government shutdown that is looming this weekend and the potential end to American aid to help Ukraine prevail in its war against Russia — Mr. Johnson, only months into his job, has found himself the last holdout at an increasingly agitated table of negotiators.

On the one side, he is feeling pressure from the president of the United States, both Senate leaders and the House minority leader — all demanding he cut a deal to fund the government and keep aid to Kyiv flowing. But on his right flank, he is facing a band of hard-line Republicans demanding that he hold out for conservative priorities and spurn Ukraine’s calls for help, or risk being booted from the speakership.

To put it succinctly, Mr. Johnson is in a bind.

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Wednesday Morning Open Thread: <del>Pastor</del> Speaker Johnson Is A (More-or-Less) Human Speed BumpPost + Comments (147)

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: February 28, 2024

by Anne Laurie|  February 28, 20245:49 am| 35 Comments

This post is in: COVID-19, Foreign Affairs

US: Very high levels of Covid in Louisiana, Tennessee, Alabama, Virginia, Georgia, North Carolina and Vermont

CDC wastewater data:https://t.co/TG7ksAzRje pic.twitter.com/SD3ncUHMe5

— CoronaHeadsUp (@CoronaHeadsUp) February 23, 2024

No longer pandemic, just endemic — with flareups.

Last night's update: 187,000 new cases, 1,569 new deaths https://t.co/U55lnuFS7Q

— BNO News (@BNOFeed) February 26, 2024

So far this year, more than 2.2 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported in the U.S., causing 175,000 hospitalizations and more than 17,000 deaths.

— BNO News (@BNOFeed) February 26, 2024

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COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: February 28, 2024Post + Comments (35)

On The Road – frosty – 3rd Annual National Park/COVID Challenge Part 2 – Redwoods National and State Parks – Fern Canyon

by WaterGirl|  February 28, 20245:00 am| 16 Comments

This post is in: On The Road, Photo Blogging

frosty

Fern Canyon is very different part of the park, in that the main focus isn’t redwood forests. It’s a 50-foot canyon covered with sword, deer, and five-finger ferns. Access is on an unpaved road with a couple of stream crossings, and the walk itself included wading upstream.

On The Road – frosty – 3rd Annual National Park/COVID Challenge Part 2 – Redwoods National and State Parks – Fern CanyonPost + Comments (16)

On The Road - frosty - 3rd Annual National Park/COVID Challenge Part 2 - Redwoods National and State Parks - Fern Canyon 9
Redwoods National Park, CA

Crossing the stream

Cold Grey Pre-Dawn Open Thread: Michigan Primary Update

by Anne Laurie|  February 28, 20243:25 am| 184 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Primaries, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat

So uncommitted gets a decent showing, the ceasefire Biden’s been negotiating this whole time comes to fruition, activists thing they accomplished something and are satisfied, we move on to November.

— LadyGrey ???????????? (@TWLadyGrey) February 28, 2024

There is an unusually large number of votes being cast in support of an unopposed Biden despite the "uncommitted" protest vote

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) February 28, 2024

The weird thing isn’t that Biden doesn’t have 100% support from Dem voters in a primary where he’s the sitting incumbent.

What’s weird is that Trump is still dominating a party he’s led to defeat in three successive federal elections. At least Grover Cleveland had good midterms.

— Peter Wolf (@peterawolf) February 28, 2024

Per the Washington Post, “4 takeaways from the Michigan primary” [gift link]:

Michigan primary voters on Tuesday gave President Biden and former president Donald Trump unsurprising and lopsided victories that will hasten their respective marches to their party’s nominations.

Late Tuesday night, Biden was leading “uncommitted” 80 percent to 15 percent, while Trump led former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley 67 percent to 28 percent…

1. What the ‘uncommitted’ vote means
The idea behind the “uncommitted” campaign was to get lots of people in a state with a disproportionate number of Arab Americans to make a point — and perhaps send a message to Biden about his Middle East policy favoring Israel too much. It was led by some prominent Democrats, including Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), a Palestinian American congresswoman.

There is no question it got people’s attention on Tuesday. Whether it really changed the 2024 paradigm is another matter…

2. Nikki Haley fades, but not completely
Haley has in recent weeks set about arguing that her vote share, too, is a sign of vulnerability for her party’s front-runner…

We don’t have exit poll data showing how many voters are balking at Trump in the general election. But nearly 30 percent of the vote is far from nothing.

It’s better than she polls nationally and in many of the Super Tuesday states. Haley also again overperformed the polls — as she did in New Hampshire and South Carolina — which suggests these polls might be overselling Trump’s strength (in the primary at least).

This is a state where the state party apparatus has gone very Trump-y in recent years. And Trump’s hold on the GOP nomination is so firm that it’s been clear for a while that Haley votes are essentially protest votes…

3. Haley begins to acknowledge the endgame
If you look closely at Haley’s rhetoric in recent days, it’s been clear she’s not really arguing anymore that this race is winnable. Instead, she seems to be making a point about how Trump is going to torpedo the party…

Haley has basically signaled she’ll stick it out through Super Tuesday because that’s what she said she would do. “Giving them an option” is not “I’m going to win.”

Her goal now appears to be making her point — and possibly, if Trump loses, being able to say (perhaps ahead of another campaign) “I told you so.”

4. Biden’s actual primary challenger peters out
That Biden’s actual primary challenger, Phillips (D-Minn.), lost to “uncommitted” wasn’t terribly surprising. The “uncommitted” campaign had significantly more momentum behind it…

In fact, Phillips on Tuesday night was in danger of finishing in fourth place, behind Williamson. Williamson suspended her campaign three weeks ago.

Main takeaway from tonight is that there's no evidence of the Gaza protest vote being especially big electorally — it got a very similar share to 2012.

But the "vote uncommitted" movement got what they wanted out of tonight anyways — this is how CNN is reporting on it. pic.twitter.com/WlurRTLwNa

— Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) February 28, 2024

Seriously! https://t.co/VmTpAeV18V

— Amy Chapman (@amyrchapman) February 28, 2024

No. Don’t stay up late. Accurately message to watchers/voters that we aren’t going to know on election night and let every go to bed, while also, just maybe tamping down on the inane conspiracy theories.

— Luke Spencer (@S_Luke_Spencer) February 28, 2024

Actually uncommitted may come in closer to 12% (it’s currently at 13% with 58% of the vote reporting)

— Amy Chapman (@amyrchapman) February 28, 2024

I guess this was written & disseminated before any vote totals were reported https://t.co/k3yC9LhGJp

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) February 28, 2024

Jayapal offered this warning a few months ago: https://t.co/PcI5WkF3mF

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) February 28, 2024

Last note on Michigan from me for tonight – final tallies from cities/counties include both early votes & same day votes. The results of those who voted before Election Day were different than those who voted today & that needs to be remembered when looking at early hot takes.

— Amy Chapman (@amyrchapman) February 28, 2024

FiveThirtyEight guy, with fortune cookie:

… sentiments exist in the electorate that can influence primaries and influence generals. Sometimes they influence both in the same way, sometimes they influence both in different ways, sometimes they just influence one.

— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) February 28, 2024

Political pundits will spend a lot of air time tonight talking about the Dem Primary uncommitted vote instead of focusing on Trump's much softer underbelly within his own party (currently 31% of GOP primary voters voting against him in a state won on the margins)

— Patrick Schuh (@PatrickSchuh) February 28, 2024

Through three state primaries now, Donald Trump has consistently underperformed his polls by 5-7%, while Joe Biden has consistently overperformed his polls by the same margin or more.

Polling is fundamentally broken, nobody knows how to fix it, but the media is still pushing it.

— Patrick S. Tomlinson (@stealthygeek) February 25, 2024

52% of the vote in, Biden has more than doubled Obama’s 2012 total vote. https://t.co/bqXXMKaa78

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) February 28, 2024

Everyone knew this was the phoniest "goal" in history, given previous uncommitted totals. The attempt to hold the threat of Trump over the heads of Michigan Democrats (and the country) flopped. Let's pray there's no hangover from this in November. Camps and nukes, people. https://t.co/sS4AATceO9

— Tom Watson (@tomwatson) February 28, 2024

Here's the problem: most Americans aren't on Twitter. Most journalists (and political staffers) are. https://t.co/6zayslupJZ

— Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) February 28, 2024

In other words, trying to appease the "Genocide Joe" crowd continues to be a lost cause. He should stay the course in seeking a peace deal because it's the right thing to do, and ignore anyone who claims his Gaza policy is an electoral liability. https://t.co/BbnBJ8viw9

— David Ridley (@RidleyDM) February 27, 2024

If Trump & Biden are tied in the polls, why, objectively, are Democrats the only ones who need to seek out "hopium," which, as a portmanteau of "hope" & "opium," one can only assume is a mind-altering substance contrary to an accurate grasp on reality? https://t.co/QgN4fHmYbp

— Magdi Jacobs (@magi_jay) February 25, 2024

Cold Grey Pre-Dawn Open Thread: Michigan Primary UpdatePost + Comments (184)

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