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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Is trump is trying to break black America over his knee? signs point to ‘yes’.

The low info voters probably won’t even notice or remember by their next lap around the goldfish bowl.

We need to vote them all out and restore sane Democratic government.

The republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

When we show up, we win.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

Text STOP to opt out of updates on war plans.

When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty. ~Thomas Jefferson

Those who are easily outraged are easily manipulated.

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

’Where will you hide, Roberts, the laws all being flat?’

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

Republicans firmly believe having an abortion is a very personal, very private decision between a woman and J.D. Vance.

“Jesus paying for the sins of everyone is an insult to those who paid for their own sins.”

This is dead girl, live boy, a goat, two wetsuits and a dildo territory.  oh, and pink furry handcuffs.

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

Jack Smith: “Why did you start campaigning in the middle of my investigation?!”

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

If you voted for Trump, you don’t get to speak about ethics, morals, or rule of law.

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

Republicans: “Abortion is murder but you can take a bus to get one.” Easy peasy.

Dear Washington Post, you are the darkness now.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 1,278: A Brief Monday Night Update

War for Ukraine Day 1,278: A Brief Monday Night Update

by Adam L Silverman|  August 25, 20259:03 pm| 33 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

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A black and white cartoon with Popeye the Sailor Man facing forward and to the left. His word bubble says "I Yam Disgustipated"

Just going to run through the basics tonight.

Ukraine has modified it’s Neptunes.

Ukraine has publicly showcased a long-range modification of the Neptune cruise missile for the first time 👀

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 5:57 AM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Ukraine has unveiled what appears to be a long-range modernized version of its Neptune cruise missile, capable of hitting targets up to 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) away, Defense Express reported on Aug. 25.

Originally, Neptune was Ukraine’s ground-launched, domestically produced anti-ship rocket with a maximum range of 300 kilometers which it famously used in April 2022 to sink Russia’s Black Sea flagship, the Moskva.

An image of the upgraded missile appeared in a video published on Aug. 24 by the state-run weapons portal Zbroya on Instagram.

According to Defense Express, the missile shown is likely a modernized version of the original anti-ship Neptune missile — informally dubbed as the “Long Neptune.” Its estimated length could exceed six meters, the outlet claims.

In March, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that the missile had successfully completed tests and been used in combat.

According to Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo who specializes in missile technology, the main upgrade for the latest version is most likely its guidance system.

The original anti-ship version relies on radar guidance which is effective when “you have a big enemy ship that your seeker can home in on.”

“But that’s not very useful in a land-based environment, which is cluttered and where you don’t have these types of very easy to discriminate radar signatures,” he told the Kyiv Independent.

“You probably want to replace that with something like an imaging infrared seeker or an electro-optical seeker,” he added.

Ukrainska Pravda reported, citing undisclosed sources, that the Long Neptune missile was used to hit an oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar Oblast on March 14.

But another recent announcement may make the Long Neptune slightly redundant.

Ukraine is planning to begin mass production of its domestically developed long-range Flamingo cruise missile this winter, which has a reported range of 3,000 kilometers and carries a 1,150 kilogram warhead — far larger than Long Neptune’s 150 kilogram warhead.

“If the producer manages to put this missile out in significant numbers, and it’s not just the marketing gag.. then to be honest, a modernized Neptune cruise missile, in terms of its importance, decreases significantly,” Hoffman said.

Ukraine has continued to increase domestic weapons production. Zelensky said on April 16 that over 40%of the weapons used on the front line are now produced in Ukraine, including over 95% of drones used on the battlefield.

In June, Ukrainian media reported that the homegrown short-range Sapsan ballistic missile had successfully completed combat testing and is in the process of serial production.Zelensky also previously revealed that Ukraine had developed another domestic weapon, the hybrid Palianytsia missile-drone.

President Zelenskyy spoke at Ukraine’s National Prayer Breakfast today. Video below,

President Zelenskyy also met with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gar Støre today. Here’s the video of their joint press conference:

Prime Minister Støre had a major announcement for the Ukrainians:

Norway intends to spend nearly $8,5 billion again to support Ukraine next year, Prime Minister Støre announced in Kyiv today.

— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 6:19 AM

Norway will also facilitate the delivery of two Patriot systems, which it is co-financing.

By the way, the Prime Minister of Norway Jonas Gahr Støre came to Ukraine on his birthday – August 25. Congratulations, Friend! 🤝🎂🥰

[image or embed]

— ajit4g.bsky.social (@ajit4g.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 6:37 AM

The Germans also had a major announcement:

Wow, great news coming not only from Norway! Vice-Chancellor Klingbeil announced Germany’s commitment to support Ukraine with €9B annually “in the coming years.”

The best possible response to the “peace talks” is to secure more military assistance for Ukraine.

Be like Norway 🇳🇴 and Germany 🇩🇪!

— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 10:14 AM

Georgia:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky greeted the Ukrainian song performed by Nino Katamadze and Nikoloz Rachveli with standing applause.

#UkraineIndependenceDay

[image or embed]

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 3:09 AM

Georgia’s Russophile part of the clergy wants to declare Archimandrite Dorote Kurashvili a heretic, or at least to terminate his clerical rights – due to his open support for Georgian protesters, justice, and the country’s European path.

[image or embed]

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 3:08 PM

Mamuka Mdinaradze will replace Anri Okhanashvili as Head of the State Security Service.

The announcement was made today, Saturday, August 23, by GD Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze.

[image or embed]

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 4:43 AM

Russia portrayed Georgia as some dysfunctional wildlings who cannot survive as a society and state without the Russian army on the ground.

And then so many Georgian lefties will go ballistic against “American imperialism” yet drool all over Russian legacy in Georgia.

[image or embed]

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 3:34 PM

Germany:

“Russia has the right to create a buffer zone in Ukraine for the sake of its security,” German politician Alice Weidel said in an interview with Die Welt.

In the next breath she spews another russian propaganda point:

“The Russians have always stated that their national security is at risk 👇

1/3

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 9:53 AM

if NATO continues to advance eastward.”
So Russia can advance westward by invading and annexing its neighbors, but NATO advancing eastward by countries voluntarily joining to avoid that fate is somehow unacceptable?

2/3

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 9:53 AM

Both ideas coexist in Kremlin propaganda. Both are absurd.They contradict each other. Yet somehow, rarely challenged.

3/3

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 9:53 AM

Poland:

Poland can no longer fund Starlink for Ukraine after President Nawrocki vetoed the aid law.

Minister of Digital Affairs Krzysztof Gawkowski called the move a “gift for Putinʼs forces,” warning that cutting Ukraine off from critical services serves the aggressor’s interests.

[image or embed]

— Kyiv Post (@kyivpost.com) August 25, 2025 at 8:47 AM

I expect one of the other EU or NATO member states will pick up the tab.

The US:

Trump: We don’t pay any money to Ukraine.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 12:10 PM

Everyone noticed!!

Reporter: How long are you going to tolerate this? Will there be consequences for Russia if they don’t meet?

Trump: Yes, there could be very serious consequences.

Yes, very serious two to three weeks.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 1:16 PM

There will NOT be any consequences at all.

Ex-Ukraine army chief and current ambassador to the UK Valerii Zaluzhny refused to hold talks with JD Vance, who was seeking an alternative to Zelensky after the White House dispute, The Guardian reports.

— Kyiv Post (@kyivpost.com) August 25, 2025 at 5:06 AM

A black and white picture of the Three Stooges. They are wearing hats, seated at a table, and all 3 are face palming themselves so that you cannot see their faces. The caption says: Triple Face Palm Because Even the Three Stooges Can See That You Fail.

That boy just ain’t right.

Back to Ukraine.

Democracies of the world wore blue and yellow for Ukraine’s Independence Day. Thank you for staying with us ❤️‍🩹

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 9:26 AM

Zelensky says Ukraine is carrying out deep strikes inside Russia with domestically produced weapons — and does NOT coordinate its targets with the US.

www.kyivpost.com/post/58877

[image or embed]

— Kyiv Post (@kyivpost.com) August 25, 2025 at 4:34 AM

From The Kyiv Post:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that Ukraine is conducting long-range strikes against Russia using domestically produced weapons and does not coordinate its targets with the United States.

Zelensky made the remarks during a press conference with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, broadcast by Suspilne.

The Wall Street Journal previously reported that the Pentagon had restricted Ukraine from using long-range missiles against Russia since late spring, aiming to pressure Moscow into peace talks.

According to the sources cited by WSJ, Ukraine had at least once attempted to use ATACMS missiles against a target inside Russia but was denied.

When asked about media reports suggesting the US had blocked Ukraine from using American missiles to strike Russian territory, Zelensky said such restrictions are not currently in place.

“At present, honestly, we are using our long-range weapons of domestic production. And lately, we have not been discussing such matters with the US,” he said.

US President Donald Trump had criticized the Biden administration for limiting Ukraine’s ability to strike Russian targets, saying such restrictions left Ukraine with “no chance of victory.”

The Biden administration had long imposed restrictions on the use of US weapons in strikes against Russia. Initially, they were completely prohibited.

After a Russian advance near the Kharkiv region in May 2024, the rules allowed US weapons to be used only in areas near Kharkiv. By November 2024, media reported that these restrictions were lifted, although the State Department said its policy on US long-range weapons in Ukraine had not changed.

Ukraine has recently unveiled its new Flamingo cruise missile, with a reported range of more than 3,000 kilometers (1,864 miles).

Able to fly farther than most of Kyiv’s long-range drones, Flamingo could strike Russia’s Arctic bases near Murmansk and penetrate beyond the Ural Mountains into the Asian parts of Russia.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has boasted about Ukraine’s missile development for months, but has remained tight-lipped on details.

Though specifications remain undisclosed, photographer Efrem Lukatsky photographed the missile at arms maker Fire Point’s assembly line on Aug. 14, state-linked outlet United24 Media reported.

Lukatsky said the missile is designed with a range exceeding 3,000 kilometers (1,864 miles), and the outlet said the missile has entered serial production.

More at the link.

Assault on Russian positions using two Bradley IFVs.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 2:40 PM

The Wall Street Journal about Yak-52 crews hunting Russian drones.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 6:04 AM

Pokrovsk:

Near Pokrovsk, a local drunkard disarmed a Russian fiber-optic FPV drone with his bare hands while it was lying in ambush.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 7:07 AM

Kherson:

WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC IMAGERY!! WARNING!! WARNING!!

Russians use drones to hunt civilians in Kherson

Russians are deliberately targeting civilians in Kherson, dropping grenades from drones and filming the attacks as “training.”

Russians publish these videos themselves: this time they tried to kill a man out walking with his dog.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 2:53 PM

ALL CLEAR!!!!

It appears the man and his dog are both okay as they were able to move quickly away from where the Russian’s targeted them with the grenade.

The Zaporizhzhia front:

JDAM air strike in a building with Russian infantry Zaporizhzhia front. t.me/DniproOffici…

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 2:38 AM

Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast:

Russian occupiers carried out five airstrikes on civilian infrastructure in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk region.

As a result of the attacks, four civilians were injured. An educational institution, a bank, a service center, apartment buildings, and two power lines were damaged.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 10:56 AM

Odesa:

Sea mines have again been spotted near the coast of Odesa. Since the beginning of August, three vacationers have already been killed by a mine explosion in Zatoka.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 8:52 AM

Rostov Oblast, Russia:

The Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in southern Russia has been burning for the fifth day in a row. It is one of the largest suppliers of petroleum products in the region.
According to Reuters, following Ukrainian strikes on RF energy facilities, oil prices have risen.
www.reuters.com/business/ene…

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 6:44 AM

Three more days!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

A fella was also present on the Ukraine Independence Day march in Tbilisi. 🐶🐕

[image or embed]

— László Róbert Mézes (@laszlorobertmezes.bsky.social) August 24, 2025 at 7:18 PM

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    33Comments

    1. 1.

      funlady75

      August 25, 2025 at 9:14 pm

      thanks Adam…good for Norway PM…

      Reply
    2. 2.

      Gin & Tonic

      August 25, 2025 at 9:15 pm

      “At present, honestly, we are using our long-range weapons of domestic production. And lately, we have not been discussing such matters with the US,” he said.

      You want to know who’s losing in this war?

      Reply
    3. 3.

      Gin & Tonic

      August 25, 2025 at 9:18 pm

      Zelensky also previously revealed that Ukraine had developed another domestic weapon, the hybrid Palianytsia missile-drone.

      Funny thing here – the word “palianytsia,” which is a type of rustic bread, is also a sort of shibboleth, in that it is easy for a Ukrainian to pronounce correctly but challenging for a russian.

      Reply
    4. 4.

      J. Arthur Crank

      August 25, 2025 at 9:20 pm

      If JD Vance is not the most pathetic person in the world, he has got to be in the top two.  Christ, what an asshole!

      Reply
    5. 5.

      Adam L Silverman

      August 25, 2025 at 9:23 pm

      Time to get cleaned up and rack out.

      Reply
    6. 6.

      Adam L Silverman

      August 25, 2025 at 9:23 pm

      @Gin & Tonic: The US.

      Reply
    7. 7.

      Adam L Silverman

      August 25, 2025 at 9:24 pm

      @funlady75: You’re welcome.

      Reply
    8. 8.

      J. Arthur Crank

      August 25, 2025 at 9:24 pm

      @Gin & Tonic:

      Funny thing here – the word “palianytsia,” which is a type of rustic bread, is also a sort of shibboleth, in that it is easy for a Ukrainian to pronounce correctly but challenging for a russian.

      Here it goes: paw lee eye Annie stay shuh (rhymes with duh). How did I do?

      Reply
    9. 9.

      Gin & Tonic

      August 25, 2025 at 9:25 pm

      @J. Arthur Crank: Valeriy Zaluzhny understands important old-fashioned concepts like honor and responsibility. JD Vance, on the other hand….

      Reply
    10. 10.

      Gin & Tonic

      August 25, 2025 at 9:26 pm

      @J. Arthur Crank: You’d be shot. Sorry.

      Reply
    11. 11.

      Adam L Silverman

      August 25, 2025 at 9:28 pm

      @J. Arthur Crank: Even more so because he knows he’s not white. His cousin says the family is melungeon.

      Terra Vance – Marked Melungeon
      July 16, 2024
      ·
      Oh, I’ve got a lot more to say about JD Vance, born JD Bowman.
      In case you missed it— yes, we share some ancestors.
      But, I was born and raised an actual Vance in the actual hollers of Appalachia. My family has been in Central Appalachia for centuries or millennia.
      We’re not, as JD Vance fictionalizes, “Scots-Irish.”
      But first, let me introduce you to some of my ancestors and still-living relatives.
      See those first two pictures? These are some of my direct ancestors from the Hatfield-Vance clan. The woman is Mary Elizabeth Hatfield. The man is Jacob Marcum.
      They’re from what’s now Wayne County, WV. That’s where the family reunions were.
      We never saw JD Bowman “Vance” at the family reunions.
      But let me ask you…
      Do they look Scots-Irish to you?
      I’m from Island Creek where Bad Jim Vance and Devil Anse Hatfield are from. We have been in this area since before anyone was called “Vance.”
      JD Vance is not even from Central Appalachia, and neither were his parents.
      His grandparents with a Vance surname moved from Kentucky to Ohio.
      JD Vance assumed the name of his maternal grandparents to siphon off the Hillbilly credentials of my actual Vance family while erasing my family and doing a thoughtless job of characterizing Appalachians.
      JD Bowman “Vance” didn’t do a thoughtful job of explaining why Appalachians are Poor.
      Let me break that down for you.
      My dad worked 60-72 hours a week in the mines for 40 years. Three times, mountains collapsed on him. One time, a two-ton rock in a collapse fell on his head and caused his chin to go down with such force that it snapped his sternum.
      Another time, he saved a man’s life by pushing him out of the way. His steel-toe boots were not rated for mountains, and that steel toe collapsed and basically cut off his toes. They managed to save the toes but now he doesn’t have toenails.
      Now, he has tons of improperly-healed remodeled bones that cause him tremendous pain he never mentions, he has total black lung (but no black lung “benefits”), and no cartilage left in too many of his joints.
      JD Vance claims Appalachians are Poor because they don’t want to work. We work ourselves to the grave and then get bragged on at our funerals for our work ethic.
      JD Vance would know that if he had been to all those family black lung funerals.
      But no amount of work ethic can make a man comfortable if the only jobs are mines, and when a seam of coal ran out, the mine shut down. Any savings was depleted.
      It wasn’t for lack of effort or initiative.
      His dad, also a real Vance from Logan, WV, inhaled a mine blast that scarred his lungs.
      His dad’s brother, also a real Vance actually from Logan, WV, was crushed in the mines a month later.
      His grandfather, also a real Vance from Logan, WV, which is actual Appalachia— and the best friend and cousin of Cap Hatfield, had to go head-to-head with the KKK— hired thugs of mine operators— with a pair .38s in Logan, WV.
      You could read about that from my great Uncle William Preston Actually-Vance’s memoir and ACTUAL-hillbilly elegy, The Way It Was.
      Many of the men in my actually-Appalachian ancestry died in or because of the mines. I put a couple of my recent ancestor documents in this slideshow so you could get an idea of how actual Appalachian poverty came to be.
      You could read my still-living 96-year-old grandmother, Bertie Lou VANCE’s actual-hillbilly elegy. It is also set in Logan, WV, because she has a about a century of lived experience as an actual Appalachian.
      I, an Actual-Vance, wrote the forward to that book. My birth certificate has Vance on it. I didn’t even have to tokenize, appropriate, erase, or dehumanize a single ancestor in order to write it.
      I didn’t have to philosophize [poorly] about anything. I just wrote about my lived experience because I have actual-lived experience.
      I didn’t mention the word “hillbilly” because Actual-Vances don’t talk about ourselves that way.
      Mamaw Bertie’s daddy was killed (likely poisoned) when she was 7 years old. Her mom was pregnant with her 7th child when that happened. He was a weights and measures man— the guy who made sure mine companies paid their workers accurately without cheating them.
      So, she grew up starvation-Poor because her dad was [almost-certainly] murdered by the mines— and not because he was lazy and had no drive. In fact, he invented and installed exhaust fans and blast doors in the mines that have saved countless lives.
      He was a prolific musician and banjo picker, but Mamaw Bertie recalls that after he died, they only had any music in their home until the battery died in their radio.
      They never could afford to replace it, so the music died, too.
      That local union hat from Stirrat, WV? That was my dad’s. He’s an Actual-Vance. Stirrat is where Devil Anse Hatfield was from. It is 1-2 miles from the holler where I grew up. That was my maternal grandfather’s union branch.
      You can see my great grandfathers’ documents, too. Note the occupations and locations.
      See that family photo with the matriarch, kids, and grandkids? Those are my Vance-Hatfield ancestors from Logan, WV. Do they look Scots-Irish?
      I’ll comment under the images, but close to the end are some of my direct actual-Vance ancestors, Sarah Ellen Actual-Vance and Mary Actual-Vance. Do they look Scots-Irish?
      The Vance/Hatfield clan was not Scots-Irish. They were European-born Romani (largely French/German), Cherokee, Shawnee, possibly-African, likely Middle Eastern, and maybe other things. They were mixed.
      Most of the people who are old-mix actual-Appalachians in the coal camps are descendants of Melungeons. They’ve been treated like expendable cheap resources because of structural racism being the norm.
      You can’t talk about Melungeons without talking about why they have such profound generational trauma. You can’t do that when you don’t talk about white supremacy.
      The one authentic thing that JD Vance did that is keeping up with Melungeon tradition is changing his name and appearing to be from somewhere he’s not in order to obscure his ethnic heritage.
      That would maybe have panned out for him a little better if he’d gone further than Wikipedia to learn about his ancestors.
      But we are not the Irish Vances. That name was a Whiteness costume originally, and so it’s fitting JD Vance would put it on.
      Incidentally, I have Bowman ancestors, too. Some are on JD Bowman “Vance’s” paternal side. I put their photos as the final two so you can tell me how much they beam with “Scots-Irish” pride.
      JD is an Outsider, and he knew that before he tried to put on the hillbilly costume just to distance himself from actual-Vances and other coal camp Melungeons.
      He put MY family name on in order to benefit off a legacy that he has not lived through the consequences of… he just whitewashed it, fictionalized it, and then condescended to as he set himself up as a supreme harbinger of rising above his hillbilly white-trashedness.
      We actual-Vances can define ourselves, and we don’t have to whitewash ourselves to do that.
      If you want to learn about real Appalachian history, you can follow my page. My ancestors and living family deserve better than Hillbilly Elegy, and I try to do my due diligence to tell their truths as closely as I can.

      Reply
    12. 12.

      J. Arthur Crank

      August 25, 2025 at 9:33 pm

      @Gin & Tonic:   So you are saying that I would be roughly analogous to Chekov asking about the nuclear “wessles” in 20th San Francisco?  This is one of many reasons that I am not a spy.

      Reply
    13. 13.

      J. Arthur Crank

      August 25, 2025 at 9:37 pm

      @Adam L Silverman:   Thanks for that excerpt.  Vance holds all of the tiebreakers in the Who-is-the-biggest-asshole tournament.  He usually starts off tournament play with the top seed.

      Reply
    14. 14.

      Adam L Silverman

      August 25, 2025 at 9:37 pm

      @J. Arthur Crank: Miller is even worse.

      Reply
    15. 15.

      Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom

      August 25, 2025 at 9:55 pm

      Thank you Adam. Especially for saving me from having to even think about watching Hillbilly Elegy. I sure af wouldn’t consider reading it.🙄 I have standards.

      Reply
    16. 16.

      Jay

      August 25, 2025 at 10:04 pm

      Just to further bag on “Baggar” Vance, the couchfucker.

      oh, come on. this such a stupid and easily-batted-down lie. World War Two ended with the unconditional surrenders of Germany, Italy and Japan.

      but oh no no no, World War Two was negotiated to an end, insists JD Vance.

      that Harry S. Truman, he must have been one fuck of a negotiator, to get Hitler to agree to put a bullet in his own head — and wouldn’t you have loved to have sat in on the phone call where Truman bargained Mussolini down to being a urine-soaked corpse hung upside down in the street?

      ‘Benito, have I got a deal for you.’

      look, JD Vance is highly educated. he graduated from Yale with a law degree. he knows how World War Two ended — so why on earth would he spew such laughable twaddle? does he think we’re that stupid? spoiler alert: yes, JD Vance thinks we’re that stupid. he also knows that MAGA is that stupid, and will believe anything he tells them. fair point, JD. we’ll give you that one.

      jefftiedrich.com/p/no-idiots-world-war-two-didnt-end

      Reply
    17. 17.

      Jay

      August 25, 2025 at 10:05 pm

      Thank you, Adam.

      Reply
    18. 18.

      persistentillusion

      August 25, 2025 at 10:26 pm

      @J. Arthur Crank: In WWII, the resistance in Holland would find ways to make  people to say “Groeningen”, non Dutch speakers would find it difficult. That, and Wilhelmina rings were ways the resistance persisted, as must we all.

      ETA Wilhemina was the queen in exile and wearing her ring was a symbol of resistance that was subtle.

      Reply
    19. 19.

      kindness

      August 25, 2025 at 10:44 pm

      I’m glad Ukraine will have access to systems that won’t have the US’s restrictions placed upon their use.  I fully expect Trump to act like he can tell Ukraine what they can and can’t hit with the new missile.

      Reply
    20. 20.

      hotshoe

      August 25, 2025 at 10:45 pm

      “Russia has the right to create a buffer zone in Ukraine for the sake of its security,”

      Yeah, I know that’s Russian propaganda, and I know that the function of propaganda is not to tell the truth — but lord do any of their tools stop to think for one moment how stupid and self-contradictory that “buffer zone” idea is?

      Reply
    21. 21.

      Carlo Graziani

      August 25, 2025 at 10:58 pm

      According to Reuters, following Ukrainian strikes on RF energy facilities, oil prices have risen.

      Well, yes. But Russian pipeline oil, at least, also sells at that increased price. The key metric is what is happening to Russian oil revenues in consequence of the drone campaign. I’d love to see estimates.

      If Ukraine’s national strategy is now “not lose on the ground” while forcing Russia to suffer painful revenue losses through an expanding strategic drone campaign against oil and gas targets, then we have a sensible metric of the effectiveness of that strategy: Russian energy product revenue. A sustained downward trend in that revenue is what brings the Russians to For Reals negotiations, according to this strategic theory.

      Reply
    22. 22.

      Jay

      August 25, 2025 at 11:14 pm

      @Carlo Graziani:

      nitter.poast.org/GrandpaRoy2/status/1959632624852652177#m

      nitter.poast.org/evgen1232007/status/1959713905972048058#m

      Yesterday, in ruZZia’s Far East, motorists were limited to 10L of fuel, (diesel and gas) only. Today, no diesel or gas is available.

      ruZZian oil and fuel exports in dollar value, have continued to drop, 18% month by month since 2023, add in the ruble, and it’s a loss of $6.6 billion dollars a month to the ruZZian “State” since the invasion of Ukraine.

      Reply
    23. 23.

      Westyny

      August 25, 2025 at 11:31 pm

      Thank you, Adam.

      Reply
    24. 24.

      Carlo Graziani

      August 25, 2025 at 11:52 pm

      @Jay: Thank you. These are helpful, illustrative anectdotes.

      What I’m actually looking for, though, is time-series data, estimated as best as possible, on overall Russian energy export revenues, month-by-month.

      The Ukrainian theory of victory seems to me to be that their strategic offensive against Russian oil will cause that time-series to decline consistently month-over-month, until Russian leadership panics and negotiates an end to the war that Ukrainian leadership finds acceptable.

      It actually makes sense to me. I’d just like to know how well it is working.

      Reply
    25. 25.

      glc

      August 26, 2025 at 12:20 am

      @Carlo Graziani:

      The chart at energyandcleanair.org/july-2025-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/

      seems informative in that respect.

      Reply
    26. 26.

      Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom

      August 26, 2025 at 12:31 am

      @Carlo Graziani: If you want the what on the Russian economy follow Prune60 on bluesky. She will drown you in data and I mean that in a totally good way. The Russian agricultural sector is suffering badly, and the price of groceries in Russia is so bad, people were stealing butter. The automotive industry is collapsing because no one can afford to buy a new car. And so on.

      Reply
    27. 27.

      Jay

      August 26, 2025 at 12:39 am

      @Carlo Graziani:

      Unfortunately, most analysis of ruZZian oil and gas is trade related, not war related.

      The impacts of Ukraine going after the “Western” built refineries, now, with repeat strikes against critical structure, won’t be known for a while, but Industry Experts believe that that the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery will be out of service for 2 years, if Chinese Cracking Catalysts are used for the repair, with a 30% reduction in production and quality, maybe longer, until the lift of Western sanctions. That’s a 5% loss of ruZZian production, and effects quality fuels and lubricants significantly.

      Reply
    28. 28.

      wjca

      August 26, 2025 at 1:03 am

      @Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom:

      The Russian economy, as seen by the Russians generally, may be imploding.   But what matters is the Russian economy as seen experienced personally by the oligarchs.  They will no more care about starving peasants (under whatever label) than they care about meat cubes dying at the front.  What impacts them is what Putin has to watch.

      Reply
    29. 29.

      Jay

      August 26, 2025 at 1:22 am

      @wjca:

      Yacht prices?

      Villa’s in the Cote d’Azure?

      Golden Passports?

      Mansion prices in Londongrad?

      Costs of their Princelings and Princesses to live in the Degenerate West?

      Increase in the price of Epstein Visa’s?

      Window glazing?

      Reply
    30. 30.

      wjca

      August 26, 2025 at 2:44 am

      @Jay: All of which cost money, for which rubles must be exchanged.  Bad economy leads (eventually) to a falling exvhange rate.  Meaning buying and maintaining all those little luxuries outside Russia** becomes harder.  And the Russian super rich are ar least as avid about hanging on to as much wealth as possible, whether they actually have any use for it or not.

      To us, it seems like a trivial difference in what they can have.  But then we aren’t oligarchs.  At least nobody here is admitting to being one.  Especially not a Russian one.

      ** Because, on the evidence, the only wealthy Russian who voluntarily spends most of his time, or a significant portion of his money, in Russia appears to be Putin.  And even he has got lots of money and lusuries tucked away in the West.

      Reply
    31. 31.

      Chetan Murthy

      August 26, 2025 at 2:53 am

      @wjca: The West is where he sends his concubines when he’s thru with ’em.

      Reply
    32. 32.

      BretH

      August 26, 2025 at 7:30 am

      “Just the basics” LOL

      Comprehensive and detailed as always, thank you Adam.

      Reply
    33. 33.

      AlaskaReader

      August 26, 2025 at 1:16 pm

      Thanks Adam

      Reply

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