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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

Hey Washington Post, “Democracy Dies in Darkness” was supposed to be a warning, not a mission statement.

The Supreme Court cannot be allowed to become the ultimate, unaccountable arbiter of everything.

I swear, each month of 2025 will have its own history degree.

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Anne Laurie is a fucking hero in so many ways. ~ Betty Cracker

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You cannot shame the shameless.

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Giving in to doom is how authoritarians win.

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Find someone who loves you the way trump and maga love traitors.

I desperately hope that, yet again, i am wrong.

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Trumpery Open Thread: Iran Does Not Have Nukes

by Anne Laurie|  March 2, 20266:14 pm| 55 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Rofer on Nuclear Issues

If Trump hadn’t torn up the Iran deal, those 6 American soldiers would still be alive

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— PatriotTakes 🇺🇸 (@patriottakes.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 4:46 PM

Time to say it again!

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— Cheryl Rofer (@cherylrofer.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 7:11 PM

Former front-pager Cheryl Rofer, now posting at Lawyers, Guns & Money:

It’s time to say it again: It’s highly doubtful that the Iranians were pursuing a nuclear weapon. And they certainly don’t have any.

Donald Trump says that (one of the purposes/ the purpose) of his attack on Iran is to make sure they never get a nuclear weapon. He has also tried to look reasonable by saying “All they have to do is say they will not build a nuclear weapon.”

Iran has done that second thing already, by ratifying the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. When North Korea decided to build nuclear weapons, they withdrew from the treaty. Iran has threatened to withdraw, but they haven’t. This is a signal of their intention not to build nuclear weapons.

Trump’s insistence seems more like that of a middle-school boy sitting on another, hollering “Say uncle.” Big strong ayatollahs must come to Trump with tears in their eyes and say it.

Iran had a nuclear weapons program up until 2003 and then gave it up. Iran has said that. Western intelligence services have said that…

All along, there have been factions within Iran that wanted a bomb, mainly in the IRGC. But Ayatollah Khamanei has said several times that nuclear weapons are forbidden by Islam, another expression of that statement Donald Trump says he wants.

I have seen reports that the current negotiators, whose expertise is in real estate, not nuclear issues, may have misunderstood Iran’s recent offers and seemed not to know what the IAEA was. It’s a subject for specialists, which is why specialists were included in the 2014-2015 negotiations.

Iran hasn’t been working toward a bomb. They have played a negotiation based on an understanding that a bomb could be one outcome of their work. The subtlety of that produced the JCPOA. It doesn’t work with a regime whose basic mode of operation is that of gangsters.

what in the world

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— Mike Black (@mikeblack114.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 7:44 PM

this is also true for 90% of the military's understanding of military affairs tbh

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— thinkingbayonet.bsky.social (@thinkingbayonet.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 9:06 PM

Probably not related, but it has been noted today that The World’s Most Dangerous Cranky Grandpa has a new health issue. If the neck rash is shingles, I understand that they are very painful & liable to make victims (more) cranky. How fortunate that Trump has the best medical care available to him!

whoa — this is new. Trump has a significant rash-like injury on his neck today in addition to his disfigured hand
(Saul Loeb/Getty)

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) March 2, 2026 at 12:47 PM

Trumpery Open Thread: Iran Does Not Have NukesPost + Comments (55)

Promoted from the Comments (Open Thread)

by WaterGirl|  March 2, 20265:24 pm| 51 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Open Threads, Politics

Deputinize America shared this with us in an earlier thread today, and I think it’s definitely front-page worthy.

History may not repeat, but it definitely rhymes.

(Verse 1)

Well, come on all of you big strong men
Uncle Sam needs your help again
He’s got himself in a terrible jam
Way down yonder in old Iran
So put down your phones and pick up a gun
We’re gonna have a whole lot of fun

(Chorus)

And it’s one, two, three, what are we fighting for?
Don’t ask me, I don’t give a damn
Next stop is Tehran
And it’s five, six, seven, open up the pearly gates
Well, there ain’t no time to wonder why
Whoopee! We’re all gonna die

(Verse 2)

Well, come on generals, let’s move fast
Your big chance has come at last
Now you can go out and get those Reds
Wait, it’s the Ayatollahs instead
The only good fundamentalist is one that’s dead
And you know that peace can only be won
When we’ve finished the job that we’ve begun

(Verse 3)

Well, come on mothers throughout the land
Pack your boys off to the desert sand
Come on fathers, don’t hesitate
Send your sons out before it’s too late
And you can be the first ones on your block
To have your boy come home in a box

(Chorus)

And it’s one, two, three, what are we fighting for?
Don’t ask me, I don’t give a damn
Next stop is Tehran
And it’s five, six, seven, open up the pearly gates
Well, there ain’t no time to wonder why
Whoopee! We’re all gonna die

Open thread.

Promoted from the Comments (Open Thread)Post + Comments (51)

How to Dispel That Musky Smell

by Betty Cracker|  March 2, 202612:51 pm| 178 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Domestic Politics, Excellent Links, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Venality, All we want is life beyond the thunderdome, Assholes

Jason Sattler, aka LOLGOP on Bluesky, published an important essay yesterday on Elon Musk’s social engineering con to reelect Trump in 2024 and how Musk plans to use his ill-gotten gains to fuck with the upcoming elections. I almost never say “read the whole thing,” but seriously, read the whole thing.

It’s titled “America Needs to Prepare for Elon Musk Like He’s a State-Sponsored Cyber Attack.” That’s a good way to put it because in terms of resources and connections, Musk is the equivalent of a state actor. Sattler starts by reviewing how Musk pulled off the con in 2024:

Let me walk you through what it actually did, because the details would repulse a society with anything like a healthy gag reflex, and because they reveal the one thing Musk actually believes in: his power to loot America dry, a position that puts him in exact sync with the man he spent more than any individual in the history of the planet to elect.

Muslim voters in Michigan saw pro-Israel ads praising Kamala Harris for marrying a Jewish man and backing Israel’s military. Jewish voters in Pennsylvania, targeted by the same operation, saw ads claiming Harris wanted to cut off U.S. arms to Israel. Young liberals got headlines about how Harris had sold out the progressive movement. Working-class white men in the Midwest were warned she’d impose race-based hiring quotas. Black voters in North Carolina were told Democrats were coming for their menthol cigarettes.

Every one of those messages, totally contradictory and engineered around each target’s specific fears and identities, came from the same organization, routed through a dark-money structure designed to hide that fact. 404 Media documented the Snapchat ad buys in granular detail: same PAC, same campaign, opposite messages, sorted by ZIP code, with Musk as the obscured original donor behind a dark-money nonprofit. In information security, this is called spoofing.

As Sattler points out, this kind of appeal works because it’s microtargeted and emotionally charged. Crucially, it’s also anonymous, so the recipients don’t know they’re being played for suckers.

show full post on front page

This isn’t a new tactic. Russia and other state-sponsored actors microtargeted communities in the runup to the 2016 election to help push Trump over the finish line (remember the “super-predators” thing?).

That was arguably the most successful enemy action since bin Laden baited the U.S. into self-ruinous lashing out 15 years earlier. But now the calls are coming from inside the house, microtargeting and mass communication are much easier to accomplish with AI tools (conveniently controlled by right-wing oligarchs), and the thoroughly corrupt president Musk purchased is fully onboard with the project.

Sattler says media literacy campaigns won’t work to counter this kind of threat, and there’s no opposition party messaging solution either because Musk isn’t looking to persuade. Instead, he’s using his vast wealth and the regrettably still-influential media platform he purchased to sow chaos, hatred and division so he and his sleazy pals can steal our democracy and loot our treasury, as they’re doing right now.

You can’t out-podcast someone whose goal isn’t persuasion but degradation of the epistemic commons itself. It still places the entire burden of defense on individual persuasion and completely ignores what Musk is actually trying to do. He isn’t trying to win people over. He’s trying to poison enough of the electorate that any result Republicans don’t like can be plausibly contested. Those are different attacks, and they require different defenses…

When someone receives a message precision-engineered around their specific identity and fears, delivered through a channel that appears organic and independent, their media literacy doesn’t protect them. Not because they’re unintelligent, but because that’s how human cognition works under emotional strain. Musk’s team has studied this and is building for it. Every false-flag ad is a spear-phishing email optimized for exactly the psychological moment when critical thinking fails.

Sattler compares media literacy strategies to the mostly ineffective user training companies do to try to stop workers from clicking spear phishing links. He notes that training doesn’t help because sophisticated scammers embed personal information designed expressly to defeat critical thinking skills.

Recognizing that, cybersecurity experts focus instead on making attacks harder for scammers to execute, taking the burden off the potential victims. Sattler proposes something similar to deal with Musk and other scammers in the political arena:

The political equivalent is mandatory, real-time disclosure of the ultimate funding source behind every digital political ad, not the shell nonprofit or the PAC name, but the actual billionaire. You don’t ask voters to do anything. You just make the spoofing structurally harder to run.

That sounds like an excellent solution, but it won’t work in the short term at the federal level because it would require legislation written and passed by people who aren’t benefitting from Musk’s scam, i.e., Democrats, who are currently out of power.

In the meantime, Sattler points to a couple of grassroots actions that have thwarted Musk. One is the Tesla Takedown protests that dented Musk’s car brand and sent him scurrying away from public-facing DOGE activities with his tail between his legs.

The other example was when Wisconsin beat back Musk’s attempt to buy a state Supreme Court seat in 2025. Judge Susan Crawford whupped the Musk-backed candidate by explicitly running against Musk:

Crawford made Musk the opponent, not Schimel, the actual name on the ballot. She ran against the money, against the interference, against the sheer gall of the richest man on earth treating a state judiciary like a personal acquisition. Her campaign wasn’t a fact-check operation or a media literacy seminar. It was a sustained, morally direct counter-attack that named the con loudly and repeatedly until the name stuck.

Musk is already gearing up for another round. He donated tens of millions already to support Republicans in the midterms and has strategized directly with Trump, Vance and Wiles, according to Sattler. So we can definitely expect more fuckery.

But Trump is now deeply unpopular, as is Musk. Sattler suggests that Democrats who are running against Musk-backed Republican opponents (which is all of them, basically) hang Musk around their necks like Crawford did. Sounds like a good plan to me.

Open thread.

How to Dispel That Musky SmellPost + Comments (178)

I Know that Guy Kidnapped a Child from an Abusive Parent, but He Gave the Kid a Good Life and Sent Her to the Best Schools!

by WaterGirl|  March 2, 202612:05 pm| 74 Comments

This post is in: Breathtaking Corruption, Breathtaking Criminality and Lawlessness, Foreign Affairs

“I know that guy kidnapped a child from an abusive parent, but he gave the kid a good life and sent her to the best schools, so maybe that’s a win in the end.”

“Yeah, I know kidnapping is bad, but some good things could come out of this.  Let’s talk about that.”

“Yeah” – shoves morality aside for the moment – “but he was a bad leader.”

Really?  That’s the way to look at what the U.S. did in Iran?

We are smarter than this.  We are better than this.

Aren’t we?

Someone please tell me that I misread a few of the comments in the morning post.

 

I Know that Guy Kidnapped a Child from an Abusive Parent, but He Gave the Kid a Good Life and Sent Her to the Best Schools!Post + Comments (74)

It’s Long Past Time

by WaterGirl|  March 2, 202610:15 am| 102 Comments

This post is in: Breathtaking Corruption, Breathtaking Criminality and Lawlessness, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Open Threads, Political Action

Simon Rosenberg says in this post that it’s time to acknowledge that Trump is a sadist.

That’s an understatement!

I think it’s LONG PAST time to to acknowledge that Trump is a sadist.

I think it’s time to acknowledge that Trump is a sadist. He likes harming people, killing them: – USAID vaporization, 10m dead- Killing people on high seas- ICE terror regime- Cutting health care, food assistance to tens of millions- Iran War, backing genocidal Putin

— Simon Rosenberg (@simonwdc.bsky.social) 2026-02-28T13:29:55.035Z

It's Long Past Time 1

Have the Benghazi hearings started yet?

Several hours after reports of the Supreme Leader’s death in Iran, 500 Shia Muslims stormed the U.S. consulate.

9 people were killed.

Did this fucked up administration even communicate with any of our embassies that region?

At least 9 people were killed in an attack on the U.S.consulate in PakistanThis was confirmed by a correspondent of Radio Liberty’s Pakistani service at the scene.Several hours after reports of the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei,around five hundred Shia Muslims stormed the U.S. consulate

— Anton Gerashchenko (@antongerashchenko.bsky.social) 2026-03-01T10:05:26.227Z

Fucking Sadistic Idiots

It's Long Past Time

Let a thousand flowers bloom

Thanks to this administration of sadists, a whole new generation of radicalized people is surely being created right in front of our eyes.

Now let’s make some calls TODAY to help pass the War Powers resolutions!

Find contact information for your legislators

This is our moment – no matter who represents you, make the calls.  Please.

It’s Long Past TimePost + Comments (102)

Monday Morning Open Thread

by Anne Laurie|  March 2, 20267:29 am| 263 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republican Stupidity, War

The Fire Horse in Chinatown today helping to melt that snow! ??

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— Michelle Wu ?? (@wutrain.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 2:23 PM

Congress holds the power to declare war – not the President.
I will be joining Senators Kaine, Paul and Schumer in forcing a vote on our war powers resolution to make it clear: Congress has not authorized this use of our military.

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— Sen. Adam Schiff (@schiff.senate.gov) March 1, 2026 at 8:58 PM

Trump's attack on Iran was not America First. 
Trump was played by Israeli PM Netanyahu and the Saudi Crown Prince. Putting Americans at risk to advance their personal ambitions is a complete betrayal of the American people. 
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202…

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— Senator Chris Van Hollen (@vanhollen.senate.gov) March 1, 2026 at 2:34 PM

for reference, 73% of americans supported the war in iraq in 2003 — two years after 9/11 and two years of the bush administration making the case for it. this will be different, iran's in much worse shape to begin with, but it's starting wildly unpopular and will only get worse with consequences

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— GOLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachine.com) March 1, 2026 at 8:30 PM

News media in general is pretty friendly towards wars—especially ones launched by Republicans-so its telling that off the bat Trumps already getting skeptical to critical headlines even from outlets that are typically pretty friendly to him

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— Daniel Gilmore (@gilmored85.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 9:28 PM

After Trump launched a new war on Iran, he did not rush back to the White House or make an Oval Office address to rally the nation as other presidents have done. He stayed at Mar-a-Lago to attend a glitzy political fundraiser. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/28/u…

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— Peter Baker (@peterbakernyt.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 1:09 PM

show full post on front page

Gift link:

… On Sunday, Mr. Trump had yet to make a public appearance. He posted a second video to social media describing the continuing attacks and again calling on the Iranian people to “take back your country.” Late in the afternoon, he began his trip back to Washington, the only event on his public schedule.

Mr. Trump’s remarks were limited to the two videos and conversations with individual reporters and outlets, including The New York Times. His decision not to give a formal address came after he made little effort before the attack to lay out the case for a military assault against Iran.

His lack of public engagement, after launching a military attack that could spur a broader conflict and has already cost the lives of at least three U.S. service members and dozens of people in Iran, Israel and other countries in the region, was a striking departure from how other presidents have handled the gravity of war….

Mr. Trump’s allies have argued that his communication strategy has adapted to the changing media landscape, where many Americans get their news and updates from social media. Steven Cheung, the White House communications director, celebrated Mr. Trump on social media on Saturday night as “focused,” invoking a term used by the MAGA base for critics of the president’s approach.

“NO PANICANS!” Mr. Cheung said in a statement on X. “TRUST IN TRUMP!”…

On Saturday, the president did not make himself available to the press pool, a group of reporters who are assigned to follow his movements and record his remarks. Those reporters last saw him Friday night, when he waved as he descended from Air Force One after landing in Florida.

Instead, he made his case on Saturday with an eight-minute video posted on social media, which was edited and not broadcast live.

“Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people,” Mr. Trump said, without specifying those threats. Key elements of what he and his advisers did assert in recent weeks about why Iran was a threat were false or unproven…

The president did not let the bombing of Iran upend his schedule, including his plans to attend a fund-raising dinner to support MAGA Inc., a pro-Trump super PAC.

Ms. Leavitt said Saturday that Mr. Trump had no intention of breaking that commitment. The fund-raiser, she said, was “more important than ever.”

Optics.
@thedailybeast.bsky.social
www.thedailybeast.com/trump-hosts-…

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— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 1:40 PM

Reporter: What’s your message to the families of the fallen?
Trump:
(via @acyn.bsky.social)

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— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 7:52 PM

Oops.

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— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 10:13 PM

You fools in the media ivory towers don’t realize that in the critical election year, when Donald trump triumphantly campaigns to the country about how he helped kill the supreme leader of Iran, a man with the blood of countless Americans on his hands, American voters will shower our president with…

— Asawin Suebsaeng (@swin24.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 10:01 AM

…praise and plaudits ranging all the way from “who are you talking about” to “I can’t buy anything”

— Asawin Suebsaeng (@swin24.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 10:02 AM

There’s that number.

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— Malaclypse the Middle (@malaclypse.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 6:39 PM

Monday Morning Open ThreadPost + Comments (263)

On The Road – Albatrossity – Ducks (not in a row)

by WaterGirl|  March 2, 20265:00 am| 22 Comments

This post is in: On The Road, Photo Blogging

I have been so distracted by The Horrors that I had lost track of how low we were on OTR posts in the queue.  We’re good thru Wednesday, and then it looks like we’ll be taking a break until you guys send some in.

On The Road - Albatrossity - Ducks (not in a row) 11

Albatrossity

We’re done with kingfishers, but not done with wanna-be kings, at least at the time of this writing. So we’ll start with a new batch of bird images and a new family, the Anatidae (ducks, geese and swans), since it is spring and some of these will soon be coming to a local body of water near you. These are familiar birds for birders and non-birders alike, either as the real thing at your local park, or as cartoon characters. And there are a lot of them; one taxonomy classifies them into 53 genera and 174 species worldwide. We’ll start with some North American species, then head wherever else I have managed to get a halfway decent photograph of a duck.

On The Road - Albatrossity - Ducks (not in a row) 10
Near Manhattan KSMarch 6, 2024

First up is the familiar Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), the most widely distributed of all the dabbling ducks (ducks which generally don’t dive for their food, and which can take off directly from the water without having to flap and paddle before lifting off). Formerly a species found only in the northern hemisphere, they were (of course) introduced in Anglophone countries by hunting groups known as acclimatization societies. So now they are found in Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and even the Falkland Islands. Known to hunters as “greenheads”, this male shows us how it got that name. Click here for larger image.

On The Road – Albatrossity – Ducks (not in a row)Post + Comments (22)

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