I’m going to do a relatively – which, as a descriptor in regard to my posts is, itself, relative – short post this evening.
I want to start with some additional thoughts regarding the bomb attack against the Dugins. Last night shortly after the post went up one of you contacted me directly and asked who I thought was responsible. This was my answer:
There are three options.
1) Ukrainian SOF and/or military intel who grew up in eastern Ukraine and are native Russian speakers and Russian acculturated so they can blend in within Russia conducted a highly compartmented assassination attempt directed at one or both Dugins.
2) Russians with the technical wherewithal who are opposed to the war or a very specific Russian with a grievance against Dugin.
3) Either the FSB, the GRU, or the SVR. They stage it to create a provocation that can then be blamed on Ukraine in order to create a way to rally domestic support for what Putin has ordered be done in Ukraine.
The more I think about the more I’m leaning to some variation of option 3. As I wrote last night, Dugin is just not that important to Putin and the siloviki and the oligarchs. He’s done a fabulous job as a propagandist in regard to ensuring that everyone outside of Russian knows just how important he is as a polemicist. But those days are long past. Most recently Dugin has been a bit of an irritant criticizing the lack of effectiveness of the Russian forces in Ukraine.
This bit of information came out today:
ANTI PUTIN INSURGENTS: Today, Ilya Ponomarev @iponomarev claimed that the National Republican Army (NRA), an armed dissident group within Russia, was responsible for the bombing that killed Darya Dugina. This is the manifesto of the NRA translated by Jason J Smart @officejjsmart. https://t.co/UM2tezbCj6 pic.twitter.com/5XL0tmzhPt
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) August 21, 2022
Given Dugin’s lack of real connection and ability to influence Putin and the Russian government, this just does not make sense to me as a domestic insurgent target.
It is also entirely possible that Dugin killed his own daughter to get himself back in the spotlight and make himself relevant again.
UPDATE2: On his esotheric far-right esotericweb-page "Arctogaea" Alexandr Dugin literally had a huge article about the ancient mystical tradition to sacrifice children, including a case of a father sacrificing his daughter's life: : https://t.co/FKInI4rVxI pic.twitter.com/eVJAdyMBsr
— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) August 21, 2022
Awkward!
We’ll have to wait and see how this shakes out as more information is reported.
President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening followed by the English transcript are after the jump (emphasis mine):
Good night, Ukrainians!
All our defenders!
The 180th day of our defense and a new week begin.
The week we look forward to every year, as it is the time of our main holiday, the holiday of Ukraine – Independence Day. And this week the occupiers definitely did not expect to be such… They could not have imagined that even now, after six months of such a brutal war, we will celebrate our independence on our land and in our capital.
But it is so. This is our land. This is our independence, which no one can break and no one can take away. And you know it is so. Everyone in Ukraine feels it. 180 days – almost six months – the absolute majority of our people have no doubt that we will achieve the victory of Ukraine.
We are united, we are more confident now than we have been in many decades. And this is one of the foundations of our strength, our power.
And therefore, it is one of the main targets for Russian terrorists. They strike at the feelings of Ukrainians, at the wounds in the souls of our people just as at our cities… They strike cruelly, cynically. But with a different weapon. And not only with propaganda, not only with lies. Tormenting people, all those who suffer the biggest pain, the greatest difficulties, is one of the terrible means of pressure, which has become commonplace for Russia.
And now there are enough reports in the media that in Mariupol the scenery is being prepared for an absolutely disgusting and absurd show trial of Ukrainian defenders, of our warriors who are captives of the occupiers.
No matter what the occupiers are thinking, no matter what they are planning, the reaction of our state will be absolutely clear. If this despicable show trial takes place, if our people are brought into this scenery in violation of all agreements, all international rules, if there is abuse… This will be the line beyond which any negotiations are impossible. Russia will cut itself off from the negotiations. There will be no more conversations. Our state has said everything.
All partners of Ukraine have been informed about what the terrorist state can prepare for this week.
Today I spoke with President Macron about all the threats. President of Türkiye Erdoğan is also informed about all this. The Secretary-General of the UN, I am sure, will also react. They and other world leaders received appropriate signals from us. Everyone understands everything. They understand what the occupiers are doing and what it threatens. And they understand that Ukraine will not tolerate this. It will not tolerate tormenting of people about whom only one thing can be said: they are heroes of their Homeland, they defended the freedom of their people from invaders on their land.
Even in times of war, there must be rules. The power of the world is definitely enough to bring any state, any terrorist under the power of these rules.
Well, all of us – all Ukrainians – must remember one thing: no matter what, our goal is victory.
No matter what, we are heading towards victory in spite of everything.
No matter what, glory to all our warriors!
Ukraine is above everything!
Glory to Ukraine!
I’m going to stop there for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Sunday mood. How are you ? pic.twitter.com/VhZcmhTKX7
— Patron (@PatronDsns) August 21, 2022
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns
Open thread!
Jeffro
beyond awkward! who could write this stuff? “There’s this Russian guy who’s written previously about sacrificing his own kids, and then his own kid is blown up while in the middle of a war where it could easily 50/50 be his own boss or special forces from the other side.” Verily, ’tis a mystery!
Trying to keep track of this is exhausting but the one thing that is not is, Glory to Ukraine!
trollhattan
August 24 is Ukraine Independence Day and to celebrate, a parade of Russian armor presents in central Kyiv, albeit not how Putin imagined.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1561334866758836224?cxt=HHwWgIC9yb_y_KorAAAA
Gin & Tonic
Two things. First, completely RUMINT, but I’ve read that Dugin’s ex-wife and the son Dugin had with her are not in the Dugin camp, like seriously (although I don’t know if Darya is a full sister or half-sister.) Speculation leading from that, that it could have been the son’s doing.
On a more serious note, somewhat supporting Adam’s analysis, this is a useful Twitter thread by Clint Watts, thoroughly debunking the “Ukrainians did it” theory and adding some useful context.
dmsilev
With regards to whodunnit, your option 1 (Ukraine special forces or similar) doesn’t make a huge amount of sense. If they had both the capability and the inclination to go after people or things in the Moscow area, a mostly past-his-time propagandist doesn’t really seem like he’d rise to the top of the target selection list. I can’t even begin to guess whether (2) or (3) is more likely, so I’ll pass on further speculation.
Gin & Tonic
@trollhattan: I have been in Kyiv for Independence Day and watched the parade. Always felt a little uncomfortable with the nature of it, but I guess they knew better. The street you see the burned-out equipment on is a majestic boulevard, truly the center of Kyiv. I’m sure this is not what V.V. Putin had in mind back in February.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
JFC. And the thing is…as soon as I read this sentence, I was like…yeah, wouldn’t doubt it. What a great group of people those russians are.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Gin & Tonic
@Gin & Tonic: Missed the edit window, but to add, I read from a source who’s been reliable in the past that the security cameras in the parking lot adjacent to the bombing site were disabled two weeks ago. This seems to have been very professional work.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Gin & Tonic: Thank you for sharing that Twitter thread, it was very helpful to me in gaining a better understanding of all the nuances around this whole mishegas.
HinTN
@Gin & Tonic:
Truth, thank FSM and the Ukranian people!
Gin & Tonic
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: Clint is well-informed.
HinTN
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
Indeed, Mr Silverman. We salute you!
Another Scott
Agreed that it seems very unlikely that it would have been a Ukrainian operation.
As for whether it was VVP or some family dispute or something else, I have no idea, but VVP’s critics seem to have a history of bad things happening to them, so he should always be at the top of the list.
Cheers,
Scott.
trollhattan
@Gin & Tonic: They, justifiably I think, are being very cautious about the public turning out for this Independence Day, acknowledging it’s an obvious time for Russia to rain down missiles. I trust they have threaded the needle WRT how to celebrate while keeping people safe.
A half year on, who’d have thought?
frosty
What monsters are we dealing with?
Also, sacrificing a daughter sounds so much better than murdering your child, doesn’t it? Has that hint of spirituality
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: The Ukrainians have officially denied that they did the attack.
frosty
@trollhattan: The parade of Russian armor was very impressive. Also a great job of trolling.
Cameron
@frosty: Well, Dugin was (and maybe is) really fascinated with Julius Evola, so bizarre magical shit might not be out of place.
Adam L Silverman
@dmsilev: Exactly! Same line of reasoning for why it also makes no sense for anti-Putin, anti-Russian government Russians to target either Dugin too.
Chetan Murthy
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/08/more-ukraine-weaps/376080/
There are times when I’m proud of my country, and this is such a time. I see how many big European countries are really falling-down on their responsibilities here, and that we’re really stepping up, being, once again, The Arsenal Of Democracy. It makes me feel proud. And, y’know, proud to pay my taxes.
Princess
Iphigenia.
That’s the one I buy. If it’s true, the powers that be know it and are covering for him with that NRA story. Disgusting.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I saw that as well.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Which you certainly would expect them to do if they were responsible.
But I agree it doesn’t make any sense as a UA op.
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic: Only people who think that Ukrainian leadership are just like Russians, would think that spending the resources and networks to attack a single out-of-work demagogue (or even more stupid: his *daughter*) is a good military tactic. It’s so ridiculous it refutes itself.
Gin & Tonic
@Chetan Murthy: Yeah, but Darya was a not-out-of-work demagogue.
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic: She was just one of an interchangeable army of genocidal talking heads though, yes? I mean, I don’t remember reading that she had any sort of real decision-making role — just get on the boob tube and rile up the masses. Which, sure, is more than her pop was doing, but still, not exactly worth the expenditure of the networks needed to pull off such an op.
opiejeanne
@frosty: Mythical, even. Just like Agamemnon and Iphegenia
And Princess got there before me.
Medicine Man
@Adam L Silverman: Adam, is it plausible that Russian security services may have plotted the assassination of Dugin as a shot across the bow of mouthy nationalists? Following your list, sort of a scenario 3.5.
Should Russia start clearly losing in Ukraine, I wonder if there will be a Night of Long Knives among their right-wing and moreover am wondering if this could be a little down payment.
Or am I being smooth-brained?
RaflW
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: I know it’s just an absurdist TV series, but having watched a decent number of episodes of The Great, the idea that he’d kill his own daughter doesn’t seem beyond imagining.
Torrey
Gin & Tonic, dr. luba, anyone who speaks Ukrainian: is there an appropriate greeting in Ukrainian for Ukrainian Independence Day? What I’ve found so far is “з Днем Незалежності”. I assume an initial “Я вітаю” is presumably OK but optional? Would like to send appropriate greetings to an acquaintance visiting the area from Ukraine. English would be OK, but Ukrainian would be better.
Bill Arnold
@Gin & Tonic:
– There is a report (so far unconfirmed) that the bomb was under the driver’s seat and it was her car.
I.e. that she was the target.
– Also, tech note, depending on connectivity, surveillance cams can often be disabled remotely. (Often they have old and unpatched vulnerabilities.)
– There is also a so-far-being-treated-as-dubious report that A Dugin ended up in the hospital (The Sun (UK tabloid)) with one variation that it was a … heart attack.
RaflW
@Chetan Murthy: It’s wild to think how much differently Putin’s hideous campaign in Ukraine would have gone if his ‘friend’ Donald was still in office.
Shudder.
Another Scott
Top of the KyivIndependent.com News Feed at the moment:
Слава Україні!
Cheers,
Scott.
smintheus
Is there definitive evidence that the daughter was in the car when it exploded? I wouldn’t trust Russian government sources on the question absent independently verified proof she is indeed dead.
The type and number of coincidences that had to occur for the (alleged) daughter to die instead of her father makes it unlikely that this is a Ukrainian assassination gone awry.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@trollhattan:
Ukrainians.
Chetan Murthy
A bleg: does anybody here sign emails (or comments at other blogs/forums) with “Slava Ukraini!” (perhaps in Ukrainian script) ?
Roger Moore
@smintheus:
I’m not sure that’s correct. It sounds as if the two of them traveled to a conference together and were planning on traveling home together. He had a last minute change of plans that kept him from being blown up with her. It seems like a believable scenario. His last minute decision looks really fishy once you start thinking about him having her killed to provide a martyr.
Parfigliano
Dead fascist. Bonus points for being Russian. Kudos to whoever did it.
John Revolta
@Another Scott: Very cool.
Carlo Graziani
@Medicine Man: Here we have conspiracy theories. There they have conspiracy theories and real conspiracies, and opaqueness is a value the way transparency is here. One can always ask the cui bono question, but I’ve lost count of the mysterious Russian murders and disappearances whose definite explanation will never come to light.
scav
@Roger Moore: There’s something a bit fishy to my suspicious mind that, having made alternative plans about getting back, he nevertheless was present at the site of her still burning car for a photo-op. Was leaving at the same time but just wanted to talk with someone else in their car and there was no better time to do it? Plus, oh look, cute blonde martyr? I don’t know. Door three has been tapping softly for attention for a while.
Ken
@Gin & Tonic: Reading some of the replies in that Clint Watts thread, it seems to me that idiots are less useful than they once were. Also I’m saving the line “bombs, bullets, and balconies” for later use (I’m sure there will be an opportunity).
Grumpy Old Railroader
Ditto
Roger Moore
@scav:
There’s all kinds of fishy in this story. I don’t know if Dugin did it, but if the authorities were seriously trying to figure out who did it, he would be at the top of the list of people to question.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@scav: The video from after the explosion seemed odd to me, too. Granted it was a short clip I saw so I can’t say how he behaved outside of it, but…I don’t know, he looked like he was acting. He mostly just stood there with his hands on his head and looking around. If your child was just blown to bits in a fucking car bombing that was most likely meant for you…and you WEREN’T a maniac and/or possibly the person who orchestrated it…wouldn’t you be absolutely losing your mind? My niece was killed in a car accident a few years ago, and when the cops went to my brother’s house to tell him, he screamed until he thought his lungs would burst and collapsed to the floor in convulsions. Dugin looked more like he locked his keys in the car or something.
Jay
Geoduck
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: People do react to horrible news in different ways. But that doesn’t remove the possibility he did it.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Pretty much modern Russia in a nutshell.
Amir Khalid
A lot of conspiracy theorising in this thread about who killed Dugina. I’m sure Ukraine didn’t do it because they devote their resources to more militarily useful targets i.e. Russian commanders, troops, and logistics on their soil. As far as I’m concerned, it’s a Russian matter with no significant connection to the war.
Nettoyeur
I have no idea which of the suggested scenarios for Dugina’s killing is correct. I would note however that most Ukrainians I have met speak Russian with a certain accent that even I, a non native but OK Russian speaker, can pick out. (Some southern Russians use the h sounding g too, but it is not quite the same). With the rampant UKR hatred fanned up in Russia, passing might not be trivial. That is one small point in favor of an inside Russia plot.
Nettoyeur
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Dugin is a nutcase but I find it hard to believe he would blow up his daughter.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Nettoyeur: Damning with faint praise.
Spadizzly
@Torrey: “Happy Independence Day” sounds good enough to me, but if you’re not into the whole brevity thing, and begin with “Я вітаю” then you’d be saying: “I congratulate you on your Independence Day.”
Your call, whatever you like.
hotshoe
@Chetan Murthy: sometimes when the spirit moves me ;)
dr. luba
@Torrey: «З днем незалежності України» is apparently the proper greeting. You can always throw in a «Слава Україні» or «Смерть ворогам!» for good measure.
The “я вітаю” is implied. Like for birthdays when you say simply «з денм народження!» It’s a bit like Spanish that way, where you rarely say “yo” because the pronoun is obvious from the verb form used.
Spadizzly
@Nettoyeur:
Went down the rabbit hole and read some of dugin’s article and now I’m convinced that he engineered the blessed event.
Your observations regarding the accent are spot on, which is to say that if I tried to pass myself off as a moscow native,no can do. They would hear Lviv instead, and that’s the way the matzoh crumbles.
dr. luba
@Torrey: Just wrote a detailed comment and the computer–or website–seems to have eaten it.
In Ukrainian, as in Spanish, you don’t need to use your personal pronoun I/я/yo. Verb conjugation is such that it is obvious based on the verb form used.
A quick Ukie web search suggests that you greet them with Ukrainian Independence day, though: «Вітаю з днем незалежності України!»
Аnd throwing in a «Слава Україні» or «Смерть ворогам» can’t hurt.
Gin & Tonic
@Torrey: So my insomnia allows me to answer your question relatively promptly, and I see that my fellow Ukes have already done so. I have nothing to add. Maybe sleep will come again.
bjacques
Dugin sacrificed his daughter the day he decided she would follow in his footsteps—maybe the first night he read her his lunatic ramblings at bedtime.
A better question to ask than “how?” is the rhetorical one of “who cares?”, especially if this turns out to be the first of many, like the aftermath of the Lufthansa heist in “Goodfellas”.
lowtechcyclist
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
The Russians are so “pro-life,” it’s no wonder that our own right wing thinks they’re great.
pluky
@Princess: Beat me to it. And if true, Dugin needs to be wary of his (ex-?) wife. Clytemnestra had to wait, but she got back at Agamemnon eventually.
Gin & Tonic
Well, good news, folks – the FSB has solved the case. The hit was carried out by a Ukrainian woman named Natalia Vowk, who has since fled to Estonia.
Shame they didn’t have the same squad working on the Nemtsov murder.
coozledad
Stalin’s wet nurse was the orthodox church. Are they as anti-Mosaic law as they are anti-Mosaic? because the only thing consistent about the madhouse that is Russia over the centuries is that leering, murderous antinomianism. Nothing means jack shit except power, and power confers grace.
That’s why their version of Communism was indistiguishable in spirit from the Romanov rule.
evodevo
@opiejeanne: Yep…me too…that’s the first thing that came to mind…read too many Greek plays in humanities class, I guess…
Betty
I see the FSB has already solved the crime. A Ukrainian woman with a child who then escaped to Estonia. See how easy that was. Some really excellent investigators in that outfit.
Steve in the ATL
@Gin & Tonic: I’d like to see this post in the form of a tanka!
Bill Arnold
@Betty:
Any rapid attribution (in any matter) from the FSB should be considered to probably be a confession until proven otherwise. Since they are proven prolific (and incompetent) liars, any “proof” should be automatically suspected.
(Noting that this sort of incident is how national-level Purges can be launched.)
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Betty: We gotta get those guys on the Hoffa case.
Torrey
@Spadizzly:
@dr. luba:
@Gin & Tonic:
Дуже дякую!
(I hope I got that right.) I noticed the use of “congratulate/congratulations” in the English translations of the Ukrainian Easter greetings, both in President Zelenskyy’s video and Patron’s Tweet. So apparently the word occupies a much larger semantic/pragmatic space than the fairly limited English “congratulate/congratulations.”
I am very glad to know that it’s important to include the specific України as part of the good wishes.
Thank you, all of you!
Bill Arnold
The official state (TASS) story is that it was A. Dugin’s car, and the driver-side placement of the bomb means it was an attempt to kill him.
aljazeera.com, 2022/8/21
SWMBO
Well shit. Here I was thinking it was Colonel Mustard in the Conservatory through a window and it was Miss Scarlett with a pipe bomb in the parking lot. No wonder I was never any good at this.
Bill Arnold
@SWMBO:
Well, the FSB’s story is that Dugina was stalked by a female Ukrainian assassin (disguised by having a child in her care!), and that Dugina was the target. I am not sure which narrative will prevail in Russia. Perhaps both. Grudge Match: TASS vs FSB!