Quick housekeeping note: commenter pieceofpeace thank you for the kind words. You are most welcome.
Last night in comments Torrey asked about Tatarigami’s tweet with the charitable organizations he recommends. I’ll put this after the jump as it is a long tweet.
Apparently Russia targeted a Liberian flagged cargo vessel in the Black Sea. The attack was thwarted by the Ukrainians:
The UK says it has intelligence showing Russia targeted a Liberian-flagged cargo ship in the Black Sea with multiple missiles on August 24. The missiles, including 2 Kalibr missiles fired from a Black Sea Fleet missile carrier, were successfully shot down by Ukrainian forces. pic.twitter.com/96gtkskLVX
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) September 11, 2023
Here are more details from His Majesty’s Government:
- intended target of a Russian missile attack in the Black Sea was a civilian cargo ship
- attacks thwarted by Ukrainian forces who shot down multiple missiles heading towards Odesa port
- since Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Russian attacks have destroyed enough grain to feed more than one million people for a year
Intelligence shows that the Russian military targeted a cargo ship in the Black Sea with multiple missiles on 24 August.
The missiles, which included 2 Kalibr missiles fired from a Black Sea Fleet missile carrier, were successfully shot down by Ukraine’s forces on 24 August.
Intelligence shows that an intended target was a Liberian-flagged cargo ship berthed in the port.
This attack followed US government warnings that the Russian military may launch attacks against civilian shipping in the Black Sea.
Thanks to Ukraine’s air defence, the attack on the civilian ship failed. Not one of the Kalibr missiles reached its intended target.
Despite its failure, this is a clear demonstration of Russia’s continuing attempts to choke Ukraine’s economy, and President Putin’s disregard for the lives of civilians and the interests of countries in Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said:
Putin is trying to win a war he will not win, and these attacks show just how desperate he is.
In targeting cargo ships and Ukrainian infrastructure, Russia is hurting the rest of the world.
This is part of a pattern of Russian aggression in the Black Sea. In July, the Foreign Secretary said the UK believed Russia may target civilian ships in the Black Sea. The US has observed Russia laying more sea mines around Ukrainian ports, and footage showing the detonation of a sea mine in July.
Since July, Russia has systematically targeted Ukrainian port and civilian infrastructure. The attacks have so far destroyed 280,000 tonnes of grain – enough to feed over 1 million people for a year, and more than the total Russia promised to donate to African countries.
Russia has stopped even attempting to justify that these attacks are against legitimate military targets and is cynically targeting civilian infrastructure. President Putin’s intentions are clear for all to see. This is a brutal attempt to choke the Ukrainian economy.
While the UK and our partners continue to do all we can to ensure Ukraine’s exports reach those who need it most, this pattern of deliberately targeted attacks in the Black Sea by Russia demonstrates President Putin’s willingness to weaponise food and innocent trade at the expense of the rest of the world as they block food from reaching world markets.
Since its withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Russia has:
- damaged 26 port infrastructure facilities in Odesa, Chornomorsk and Reni
- destroyed 280,000 tonnes of grain – more than the total amount Russia promised to donate to African states, and enough to feed over 1 million people for a year
- because of Russia’s decision to withdraw, up to 24 million tonnes of foodstuffs from Ukraine may now not reach global markets over the coming year
- before Russia’s invasion, Ukraine was feeding 400 million people worldwide and accounted for 8 to 10% of global wheat exports and 10 to 12% of corn and barley exports.
- Ukraine provided over 50% of the wheat for the World Food Programme in 2022 – without the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) the World Food Programme (WFP) will have to replace this with more expensive or lower quality wheat
This goes directly to way2blue’s question from last night:
I’m missing something. Why does there even need to be a grain agreement with Russia? Aren’t the ships transporting the grain flagged to other (non Ukrainian) countries? So a Russian attack on them would be an attack on, again, a non Ukrainian country. Why can’t these ships be protected (escorted if need be) by western allies?
The grain deal made escorts and protection by western allies unnecessary. With Russia pulling out of the deal, Russia has the upper hand on the Black Sea as they actually have a fleet. Even if it is aging and not particularly well maintained. And the reason that Russia has the upper hand on the Black Sea is that Turkey, pursuant to the Montreux Convention, has sealed the Bosphorus Straits. This means no other navy, including the US’s, can get into the Black Sea. So unless we had a Coast Guard float on the Black Sea working with allies and partners before Turkey sealed the straits, we’ve got no assets on the Black Sea we can use to protect shipping going into and out of Ukraine’s ports. Nor do any of our allies and partners. Turkey could, of course, provide escorts themselves, but so far Erdogan has chosen not to do so.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Paperwork in the military should be much less – address of President of Ukraine
11 September 2023 – 21:44
I wish you all good health, dear Ukrainians!
Today, there is good news: we are preparing to strengthen the package of defense support from Germany. Air defense systems, artillery, equipment. What was agreed upon with Chancellor Scholz. What was discussed today with German Minister of Foreign Affairs Baerbock – she was on a visit to Ukraine, I met with her today in Kyiv. It’s crucial that partners hear the needs of our state, our soldiers, and the protection of our energy infrastructure. I am confident – there will be results.We are also making progress with our other partners, in particular, regarding air defense systems. Additional systems will be in Ukraine.
Today, I held several important meetings. First of all, I would like to highlight the meeting with Ukraine’s Defense Minister Umerov, First Deputy Minister Pavliuk, and Deputy Prime Minister Fedorov regarding the provision of our soldiers and the transparency of this provision. The specific needs of our combat brigades should be met as quickly as possible, and for this, all accounting should be digitized. In general, there should be much less paperwork in the military, and there should be no difference between what is reported here in the center and what is really needed at the front. The Ministry of Defense is currently relaunching the accounting system, with assistance from the Ministry of Digital Transformation.
Today, I also had a meeting with representatives of the law enforcement sector. Obviously, Ukraine needs more progress in protecting the interests of society. In protection from those who prioritize their own wallet above social norms and rules. Above even the war. There will be new steps of the state.
And one more thing.
Since this morning, various Ukrainian cities and regions have been hit by Russian attacks.
Nikopol – brutal Russian shelling, artillery. Ochakiv in Mykolaiv region, Kherson, and other cities and villages in Kherson region, Polohy district in Zaporizhzhia region, Donetsk, Pokrovsk district, Bakhmut district, Volnovakha district, and others. Kharkiv region. Chernihiv region. Sumy region. Kryvy Rih – a missile strike. Another attack by Shaheds. Even when there is a relative peace and quiet in some parts of our territory, we should always remember our land, our cities, and villages that are almost constantly under fire.
And even though today is the 565th day of this war, all of us, each and every one in Ukraine, should remain focused on defending the state just as we did in the early days. Russia does not hope to win. The enemy hopes only that we will not endure. Ukraine must endure. Anything that strengthens us is a priority. And only that is a priority.
No weakening! And we won’t allow anyone to weaken Ukraine.
Glory to all our soldiers! Thank you to everyone who helps!
Glory to Ukraine!
A message from Ukraine’s new Minister of Defense:
Minister @rustem_umerov
Weaponry: we need it today, we need it now, we need it more. pic.twitter.com/BGsc2F5fxt— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 11, 2023
The 25 best representatives of our unconquered nation will participate in the Invictus Games this year. They earned six medals on the opening day of the tournament for wounded servicemen and women in Dusseldorf: 1 gold, 3 silver, and 2 bronze! We are extremely proud of our team! pic.twitter.com/2ENRtRtGVm
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 11, 2023
Senior Lieutenant Volodymyr Hera won a silver medal in shot put in the 2023 Invictus Games!
In the Luhansk region in 2014, under fire from russian MLRS and helicopters, Volodymyr was instrumental in the evacuation of the encircled 24th Mechanized Brigade, saving about 400 of his… pic.twitter.com/JsIR61GDx8— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 11, 2023
Senior Lieutenant Volodymyr Hera won a silver medal in shot put in the 2023 Invictus Games!
In the Luhansk region in 2014, under fire from russian MLRS and helicopters, Volodymyr was instrumental in the evacuation of the encircled 24th Mechanized Brigade, saving about 400 of his brothers in arms.
He was awarded the Order of Bohdan Khmelnytsky, 3rd Class for this.
Volodymyr has a tattoo of an airplane on his arm with the message “We Need F-16.” They’ll be here soon.
The Black Sea off the coast of Russian occupied Crimea:
A film about a unique operation of @DI_Ukraine.
russian special troops captured Ukrainian oil and gas drilling platforms in the Black Sea off the coast of Crimea in 2014 and 2015. The occupiers have been utilizing them for military purposes ever since – in particular to… pic.twitter.com/txFAcdgpfE— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 11, 2023
A film about a unique operation of @DI_Ukraine.
russian special troops captured Ukrainian oil and gas drilling platforms in the Black Sea off the coast of Crimea in 2014 and 2015. The occupiers have been utilizing them for military purposes ever since – in particular to coordinate the recent attacks against Ukrainian grain export infrastructure. Defense Intelligence personnel have returned the rigs to Ukraine’s control. During the operation, valuable trophies were captured, and a russian Su-30 fighter plane was damaged.
🎥 @DI_Ukraine
The wise will, indeed, rule over the stars!
Russian occupied Berdyansk:
More than 20 Russian helicopters are visible in recent satellite imagery of the airport in occupied Berdyansk.
Over the past few months, Russian forces at this base built new revetments and shelters for vehicles and equipment. pic.twitter.com/Wz5T8Wk0U4
— Brady Africk (@bradyafr) September 11, 2023
Orikhiv Axis:
ORIKHIV AXIS /1915 UTC 11 SEPT/ UKR forces maintain advances east of Novoprokopivka. Russian combat losses include a T-72B3M tank, an MT-LB & a Zu-32-2 anti-air system. See inset of UKR tank shrugging off a Lancet UCAV hit and bravely continuing mission. pic.twitter.com/seQjSGo2Uv
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 11, 2023
Velyka Novosilka-Vuhledar:
VELYKA NOVOSILKA – VUHLEDAR /1600 UTC 11 SEPT/ UKR forces break up attack south of Rivnopil, inflicting heavy losses on RU units. UKR also in contact within northern urban limits of Novomaiorske. pic.twitter.com/pr0hBehslE
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 11, 2023
Bakhmut:
Detonation of Russian mortar ammunition as a result of a cluster munition strike. Bakhmut direction. pic.twitter.com/fJnLiUBsuo
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 11, 2023
Robotyne:
Video of a recently captured Russian T-90M near Robotyne. https://t.co/mYPzz3Bvvd pic.twitter.com/8N7gopoX2J
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 11, 2023
Torrey, here is that tweet by Tatarigami:
To address one of the most common questions from ordinary citizens living abroad regarding how they can contribute to supporting Ukraine, I've compiled this guide
Please note that while I aim to provide a comprehensive guide, there may be some important organizations and steps I… pic.twitter.com/0LDRoyYoEP
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 6, 2023
To address one of the most common questions from ordinary citizens living abroad regarding how they can contribute to supporting Ukraine, I’ve compiled this guide
Please note that while I aim to provide a comprehensive guide, there may be some important organizations and steps I may have forgot to add. Nevertheless, I hope that it will be helpful nevertheless, featuring only organizations with which I have personal experience or have heard consistently positive feedback.
I’ll structure the guide into three main sections:
-Donations;
– Democracy in Action;
– Informational Support and Economic Boycott;
– Leveraging Influencer Power.1. Donations
Here is a list of foundations that I highly recommend. While this may not be an exhaustive list, these are the organizations with a proven track record of delivering consistent results, based on my personal experience: ComeBackAlive (@BackAndAlive) – Widely regarded as the most reputable organization in Ukraine dedicated to supporting the military. They have been functioning for many years and have established an excellent reputation. The organization is managed by Taras Chmut (@TarasChmut), who is also the founder of Militarnyi (@militarnyi_en), an excellent source of information in English covering developments in military technology, procurement, and significant updates in the Ukrainian Defense industry. Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundation (@CharityPrytula) – Another highly regarded and reputable charity foundation created by @serhiyprytula. This foundation is highly recommended and has procured a substantial amount of equipment for our military, including a satellite. Follow them as they frequently organize valuable fundraisers and have a good reputation among many individuals whom I personally trust and know. The Liberty Ukraine Foundation (@LibertyUkraineF) is a remarkable 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization, represented by the dedicated Ukrainian veteran @Teoyaomiquu. It’s an excellent option, particularly for those residing in the US. I can personally attest to the swift and timely delivery of essential life-saving equipment to several brigades at my request.
While there are indeed many more organizations, such as United 24, I haven’t included them in this list as I lack personal experience with them.
2. Democracy in Action
While some may occasionally question the efficacy of democracy in the Western world, there’s no denying that it works; otherwise, politicians wouldn’t invest millions of dollars in every election to persuade you to vote for them.
What actions can an everyday citizen take?
Make it clear that when it comes to foreign policy, Ukraine is a deal-breaker for you. This can be accomplished through various means, such as sending emails, making phone calls, utilizing personal connections, or participating in support rallies. Public support is what drives assistance for Ukraine. Without your daily voices, your frustration over delays, and your requests for continuous help, Ukraine would never have received aid on such a significant scale. Whether it’s through Facebook or Twitter, displaying the Ukrainian flag on your balcony or social media profile, or joining rallies in support of Ukraine, your voices can save the lives of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians. Be vocal, and your message will be heard.
3. Informational Support and Economic Boycott
This section serves as a natural extension of the previous one but emphasizes a slightly different aspect:
The relentless spread of aggressive Russian propaganda and disinformation across the internet is designed to erode support for Ukraine. To effectively counter this, it’s crucial to identify these propagators and expose their false narratives and hidden agendas.
It’s important to remember that engaging with small trolls and individuals without a significant following can inadvertently amplify their message, so it’s often best to ignore them. However, when dealing with individuals who have a substantial following, it becomes important to counter their misinformation and provide additional context, much like appending community notes on X (Twitter).Furthermore, consider actively participating in economic boycotts against companies that continue to conduct business in russia. It’s essential not to remain silent about your actions; don’t hesitate to post about why you’ve chosen not to buy certain products or support specific businesses, such as refraining from purchasing Pepsi products, for example. This transparency can help raise awareness about the importance of economic pressure as a means of discouraging companies from supporting russian actions, ultimately contributing to the effort to protect Ukraine.
4. Leveraging Influencer Power
If you happen to be an influencer on platforms like YouTube or any other social media, consider dedicating at least one episode or post to Ukraine within your field of expertise. For instance, if you’re a historian, you can create an episode about significant historical events, much like the course of lectures by Professor Timothy Snyder (@TimothyDSnyder). If literature is your forte, introduce your audience to Ukrainian authors. If you’re involved in the arts, set aside a day to talk about Ukrainian art. If your content revolves around IT or GameDev, use an episode to highlight Ukrainian contributions in these fields. This is of paramount importance, as Russia persists in its imperialistic policies with the objective of erasing any mention of Ukraine or its accomplishments, while denying its status as an independent nation and country.
While this guide may not be exhaustive, I hope that it can serve as a valuable reference point for ordinary citizens worldwide to contribute towards Ukraine’s victory. Don’t forget to like and share this message to help with algorithms.
Last night I said I’d include some of what Indian government officials are putting out on social media regarding the G20 summit. Here’s some of it.
About the most chilling press releases I've read https://t.co/wg0MHHs22e
— Ashok Malik (@MalikAshok) September 10, 2023
From India’s Press Information Bureau:
Prime Minister’s meeting with the Prime Minister of Canada
Posted On: 10 SEP 2023 7:05PM by PIB DelhiPrime Minister met Prime Minister of Canada H.E. Mr. Justin Trudeau on 10th September on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in New Delhi.
Prime Minister Trudeau congratulated Prime Minister on the success of India’s G20 Presidency.
Prime Minister highlighted that India-Canada relations are anchored in shared democratic values, respect for rule of law and strong people-to-people ties. He conveyed our strong concerns about continuing anti-India activities of extremist elements in Canada. They are promoting secessionism and inciting violence against Indian diplomats, damaging diplomatic premises, and threatening the Indian community in Canada and their places of worship. The nexus of such forces with organized crime, drug syndicates and human trafficking should be a concern for Canada as well. It is essential for the two countries to cooperate in dealing with such threats.
Prime Minister also mentioned that a relationship based on mutual respect and trust is essential for the progress of India-Canada relationship.
In case anyone is curious, here’s Canada’s read out of the same meeting:
Today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met with the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, on the margins of the G20 Summit in New Delhi, India.
The prime ministers discussed India’s priorities under this year’s G20 theme, ‘One Earth, One Family, One Future’. They spoke about inclusive economic growth, support for low-and middle-income countries, and access to concessional finance for sustainable development. They noted the importance of welcoming the African Union as a member of the G20.
Prime Minister Trudeau raised the importance of respecting the rule of law, democratic principles, and national sovereignty.
Compare and contrast at your leisure.
This one from the Senior Advisor at India’s Ministry of Information & Broadcasting is particularly obnoxious:
Indian official exulting in the failure to support a country that is under attack. Seems a strange thing to celebrate. Also maybe choose a local balladeer rather than an American to assert your independence? https://t.co/rq5XBvHBUl
— Gideon Rachman (@gideonrachman) September 10, 2023
Here’s the full text of Gupta’s tweet:
As Nobel Laureate Bob Dylan sang,
Come gather ’round people
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You’ll be drenched to the bone
If your time to you is worth savin’
And you better start swimmin’
Or you’ll sink like a stone
𝐅𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚-𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐢𝐧’
Come writers and critics
Who prophesize with your pen
And keep your eyes wide
The chance won’t come again
And don’t speak too soon
For the wheel’s still in spin
And there’s no tellin’ who
That it’s namin’
For the loser now
Will be later to win
𝐅𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚-𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐢𝐧’
So there are a couple of things to unpack here. The first is that Bob Dylan’s grandparents immigrated to the US from Odesa. So the US and our EU allies give in to Modi’s bullshit demands to weaken the language regarding Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of and war on Ukraine and to add insult to injury a senior Indian official tweets the lyrics to a song by a Ukrainian-America to rub the US’s and our EU partners’ noses in what India clearly sees as a victory for them and a defeat for the US and the EU. As I wrote last night, this isn’t diplomacy, it is strategic failure. All it does is further prop up Modi, who is a religious extremist that is turning India into an illiberal democracy by giving him something he can tout internally in India and externally with the other BRICs and states in the global south as a win over the US. And if anyone is naive enough to to think that Modi now owes the US a favor, then I have a bridge to sell you on a beach.
This was a capitulation, not a diplomatic win.
“Let’s say you had no G-20 statement, headlines would say G-20 is finished, G-20 could be replaced by blocs like BRICS and G-7. So in a way by having a statement [we] keep the platform and the organisation alive,” said a senior EU official when asked about the climbdown by G7&EU https://t.co/gzGEaO3ZOx
— Suhasini Haidar (@suhasinih) September 10, 2023
And before someone starts again, I have read the entire document. This was not a win, it was a loss. Even worse it is another indicator to Ukraine that the US and its EU and other allies will do what is expedient for themselves at Ukraine’s expense. States have interests, they do not have friends. And we keep demonstrating to Ukraine and to Russia that our interests and Ukraine’s are only partially aligned. And when they do not overlap, then even though Ukrainians are fighting and dying to achieve our objective of degrading Russia’s military without every having to commit a single US Soldier, Sailor, Airman, or Marine, Ukraine’s interests are quickly jettisoned.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Те, що зазвичай залишається за кадром😂
The machine translation of the caption:
What usually remains behind the scenes 😂
Open thread!
MagdaInBlack
I don’t say it often enough, Adam. Thank you for all the work you put into these Ukraine posts. Also too, I promise not to bitch about you using Xwitter posts 😉
Chetan Murthy
As others have noted about the elites who run India: their children are educated in the West, start their businesses in the West, and preferentially live in the West. Fucking freeloaders, these Indian elites.
I was fucking born in Bangalore, and I’m embarrassed by them. But then, the last time I was in India (1979?) they were just the same: lovin’ the fucking Soviets while pining for “the states” and Western music and Levi’s jeans.
Alison Rose
Man. Fuck putin, fuck Modi, fuck the North Korean Nitwit, fuck Tucker, fuck TIFG, just fuck everyone who caused this and/or supports it.
That’s my poetic contribution.
Also, I know he won’t because it’s not the same thing, but I wish Dylan would sent Gupta’s people a cease and desist order like bands have had to do with GOPers so many times. What a horrendous appropriation of his words.
Zelenskyy did an interview with Fareed Zakaria, about the counter-offensive, what Ukraine needs, “negotiations” and how they are total bullshit (that’s me editorializing), etc. “When you want to have compromises or dialogue with somebody, you can’t do it with a liar.” Yeppppp. (He speaks English in the video, for those who struggle with subtitles.)
Thank you as always, Adam.
Chetan Murthy
There’s a thing I wonder: what’s the battle death rate per capita (per 100k residents for example) in Ukraine, as compared to Tuva (in RU). I wonder this, b/c I wonder whether Vova is doing as good a number on his subject non-Muscovite peoples, as he is on Ukraine. There was a thread I saw yesterday comparing the pay for soldiers from Tuva (or other “regions”) as compared to from Moscow/St Pete. As you can imagine, it was wildly different. Ditto with health care for injured soldiers, and on and on.
I wonder when the people of the regions will rise up and start killing their masters.
Yarrow
@Chetan Murthy: Not just elites in India itself. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s wife is an Indian citizen and still has “non domiciled” status in the UK for tax reasons. She’s ultra rich from family money. Rishi himself had a green card in the US until he had to give it up for appearances sake when there was an investigation into his taxes after he became Chancellor.
What country are these people loyal to? The country of money it looks like. They do what’s good for their ultra rich friends around the world.
cain
@Chetan Murthy: co-signed
Adam L Silverman
@MagdaInBlack: Thank you for the kind words. You are most welcome.
wjca
Putin’s invasion had two goals:
So far, not only has he failed at #1, his efforts have been counterproductive, with Finnland and Sweden signing up for NATO.
He is pretty clearly failing at #2 as well. And if he was to end up losing Russia big chunks of territory elsewhere? Well, that would be on pattern.
jlowe
https://climatechangenews.com/2023/09/09/g20-leaders-strike-renewables-deal-stall-on-fossil-fuels/ – G20 couldn’t even get to an agreement to curb use of fossil fuels even though most of them are at the sharp end of climate change. They’re useless. Why did we coddle them like this?
catfishncod
@Chetan Murthy: Historically, Moscow (under whatever ideology) has had a simple response to “lesser” subject people’s rising against their masters- a little thing called “genocide”. It tends to be effective as a deterrent.
Of course, that’s exactly what they are trying in Ukraine, and they bit off more than they can chew….
Is this becoming one of those plans where you commit genocide on anyone who notices you’re committing genocide? Because that always ends with the airship on fire, and losing your hat.
And any plan where you lose your hat is a bad plan.
(we must laugh because we must cry)
Bill Arnold
As pointed out by Another Scott(?), for whatever it’s worth, the G20 New Delhi Leaders Declaration did reaffirm two relevant UN resolutions condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: A/RES/ES-11/1, A/RES/ES-11/6h (both links PDFs. Also, the G20 link won’t download for me when using a VPN.)
So the crowing by Indian nationalists is a little overdone. Though the declaration (and India) still has a bad look.
schrodingers_cat
@Yarrow: Her father is the ex-CEO of the glorified tech sweat shop Infosys and her mother is big Sangh supporter and influencer.
cain
@Yarrow:
They have no loyalty.to anything but their own prosperity. It’s why I don’t give a fuck about the Indian community.
We don’t as a group have the same civil sense that I’ve seen elsewhere. There are of course lots of exceptions and the upcoming generations are so much better than us.
schrodingers_cat
@Chetan Murthy: Those Soviets provided India with military know how and oil during the Cold War. And were a major ally in conflicts with Pakistan among other things.
India’s geopolitical interests don’t always and haven’t always aligned with the US. It more complicated than Indian elites suck.
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy: It is high, but I haven’t seen any real substantive updates reported for almost a year.
schrodingers_cat
It is going to be difficult for any Indian government to walk away from Russia. Rahul Gandhi admitted as much when he was in the US earlier this summer. This goes beyond party politics.
Lyrebird
I don’t have in-depth knowledge, but I think we can apply your statement to some of the other countries the Biden administration was trying to please.
@jlowe: In some countries at that sharp end, the elites are a horror show, like the people that would look up to Putler personally and sic Wagner mercenaries on their own people… and it’s also more complicated than that alone. I’ve heard people from developing countries say wait, you guys produced so much more toxic waste and global warming to get to whhere you are, and now you are trying to tie our hands behind our backs because of whhat you did! Of course for everyone’s survival we have to do better, but I don’t see how tonight.
Anoniminous
Just like I predicted.
According to Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate Kyrylo Budanov tanks and other heavy equipment have become less effective because of the proliferation of human-carried anti-tank systems and the effectiveness of kamikaze drones. We’re back to an Infantry War.
Chetan Murthy
@schrodingers_cat:
When India was a weak country (geopolitically) this (playing off West vs. USSR) made sense. But today? This guy Gupta is saying “the times they are a-changin'”. Well, Mr. Gupta, if you intend to take your place as a world leader, a superpower, you need to do your part to maintain the “rules-based international order” on which you, India, also rely. Or, y’know, when you expect it to be there, you’ll find that it’s been undermined, yanno?
Simply put, like so many others, they’re suffering from the “ceteris paribus fallacy”.
An aside: A long, long time ago I read _Blowback_ (by Chalmers Johnson). It was about US policy vis-a-vis Japan, and the various kinds of blowback we suffered from that. Johnson talked about how, in order to build your worldwide hegemony, we needed to increase the stability and prosperity of our satraps. So in the case of Japan, we did things like prevent American car companies from enforcing patents that Japanese car companies were infringing right-and-left. The US government saw it as a price that we needed to pay, in order to build that “rules-based international order”, and we paid it. That’s what responsible superpowers do, and that’s not what India is doing.
And again, I understood when India did it in 1979: they were anything but a superpower at the time. But now? Yes, Mr. Gupta, the times they have a-changed, and you need to man up.
Chetan Murthy
@Anoniminous:
I’m certainly not going to gainsay you (or Gen. Budanov), but I do wonder about two things:
I guess what I mean is, I wonder whether what’s really happening is the emergence of “drone power” as a critical factor. What to call it? “Drone War” ?
Just spitballin’.
P.S. I do believe that over time, with more and more autonomous drones, artillery will slowly (only slowly) trend downwards as a source of battlefield casualties.
Anoniminous
@Chetan Murthy:
Think Combined Arms. Artillery does cause most of the casualties. Indirect and direct fire artillery can support infantry in attack and defense. But artillery can’t take and hold ground. For that you need infantry.
All that plus too also ditto for drones.
Carlo Graziani
Something to think about regarding the growing salient south of Orkhiv: as progress continues southwards, more UA units need to also be committed to attack the lengthening shoulders of the salient, so as to broaden it and abate the risk of a Russian counterattack to pinch it off at its neck. This means, unfortunately, that force requirement will grow much faster than what is needed for rotation of forces at the tip of the spear—the farther in the spear goes, the greater the salient perimeter that needs securing in order to protect the entire offensive.
Of course, that works both ways, since the Russians are also engaging a longer line—in fact, this is the point of broadening the salient, to diminish the Russians’ ability to mass a reserve that it can use to attack the salient base, while increasing the forces Russia needs for an effective assault.
Let’s hope the Russians break soon. The butcher’s bill for these operations is going to be very high.
schrodingers_cat
Okay I understand India’s geopolitical compulsions when it comes to dealing with Russia. However, Indian foreign policy shop in the current Modi government under Jai Shankar is obnoxious and stupid. And high on their own Kool Aid. I have not been in favor of Biden acting all buddy buddy with Modi and inviting him to a state dinner.
Chetan Murthy
@schrodingers_cat:
I forget where I read it (maybe here, from Carlo?) but Biden doesn’t have a choice. Just as with Turkey, he’s gotta keep ’em in the tent pissing out, even if a lotta the spray lands inside the tent too. He’s gotta maintain the largest possible “status quo coalition”, and that means Modi gets invited in. We don’t have to like it, and I sure don’t either.
Ben Vernia
The “standdown” of the G20 statements seems a bit overblown– at least based on the very short quotes that have been reported. The ’22 G20 statement said that “most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine” (emphasis added). “Most members” doesn’t sound like a united stand to me. I’m not a fan of the ’23 statement (or the G20, for that matter), but I’m wondering how united the ’22 G20 was, since people are measuring this statement against that one.
wjca
40 years ago, the US and the USSR were the major powers. And India definitely wasn’t. What’s different today is that India is arguably a bigger deal than Russia.
But old habits die hard. And India doesn’t (yet) have the self-confidence to see itself that way.
Bill Arnold
@Chetan Murthy:
Or hybrids, e.g. rocket or tube artillery delivering sub-munitions with autonomous terminal guidance systems (including target selection). (There are already systems of this sort, IIRC.)
Anoniminous
Reading an interesting study: DNA 4124F A Study of Breakthrough Operations
“A Breakthrough was defined as: An operation in which attacking forces penetrate the defender’s main line of resistance, overrunning or bypassing local reserves, completely disrupting lateral ground communications of front-line defensive units on either side of the penetration, retaining the capability of continued and sustained forward movement, while the defending forces are incapable of immediately deploying effective resistance in front of the attacker’s penetrating elements.PART II – ASSESSMENTA qualitative assessment identifies the factors which were most important to the achievement or near-achievement of breakthroughs in each of the fourteen specific operations considered in this study. The analysis led to the conclusion that success in achieving breakthroughs results from the following considerations:* Careful planning
* Well-organized, well trained, well led forces
* Forces massed at the point of attack
* Ample reserves
* Mobility superiority
* Air superiority
* Surprise
A quantitative assessment reveals that the attackers had quantifiable combat power advantages over the defenders in one or more of the following five characteristics:1. Substantial preponderance of ground numbers or firepower
2. Combat effectiveness superiority
3. Superior mobility
4. Overwhelming air support
5. Surprise”
Sadly it is noticeable how many of these requirement the Ukrainians don’t and can’t meet as of 9/11/23.Which isn’t to say they won’t meet them. If reports about the third defensive line on the Tokmak axis are anywhere near accurate:
the situation could suddenly change.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: Wasn’t me, but I’m not unsympathetic to the statement. Largely, though, I come down on the “not much to see here” side, so far as the war against Ukraine is concerned. Pace, Adam but I can’t possibly regard these events in the light of some kind of important “strategic setback.”
In the first place, there is the rather obvious observation that Ukraine is not affected in any tangible way by this declaration. There are nothing but outraged pride issues at stake here. The threads that matter—weapons, civil security, war diplomacy, political situations among combatants and allies, etc.—are completely unaffected by the G20 show. One has to believe that minor shifts on the propaganda front have comparable importance to these things to take the view that some kind of strategic catastrophe ha occurred here. I’m not there.
Moreover, the fact of the matter is that while the war may be everything that matters to the Ukrainian government, the US government has other priorities to tend to as well, and must allocate effort and resources and risk among those priorities. The dialog with Modi has everything to do with the currently fraught Indo-Pacific situation, and the challenges posed by China. India is irrelevant to Ukraine, and vice-versa, as is also the US-India strategic dialog. If the US were to neglect its priorities here in favor of some symbolic diplomatic “victory” supporting the Ukrainian war narrative (which we all here agree is valid), then that would be true strategic malpractice.
As to “bolstering” Modi’s political predominance in India, the unfortunate fact is that that ship has most likely sailed. There is no effective national political opposition to Modi. Even people who hate him hate the Congress Party even worse, and in the Indian context he is a very effective politician. Unfortunately, India’s 70 year dalliance with supra-ethnic democratic nationalism may not even match the USSR’s 75-year experiment with supra-ethnic Marxism-Leninism. There’s a malignant attractiveness to ethno-particularistic politics that is hard to fight, and to which India appears to have largely succumbed, at least for now. Modi is here to stay, G20 or no G20.
I will say that briefs on behalf of the supreme importance of gaining the good opinion of the Global South leave me about as impressed as the very comparable briefs on behalf of the paramount importance of the Non-Aligned Movement during the Cold War. In the end, the Global South has little power, and less say, in the decisions that steer world events.
Eolirin
@Anoniminous: I’m sure the work Boston Dynamics and others are doing will eventually render holding ground something automated or semi-automated machines can do too. Things get a little scary at that point.
wjca
I believe that’s rather the norm for these things. Progress by a couple of yards a day. Sometimes back and forth even. At most, a little bulge here or there. And then suddenly one side seems to implode.
On current evidence, and barring the Ukrainians running out of ammunition, the smart money bet would be the Russians being the ones imploding. Suddenly.
Torrey
Adam, thank you very much for reposting the Tatarigami material. And, once again, for your daily curating and presenting of the important information about the way. As with many others who have commented here, I am often surprised at how much I know about the war.
YY_Sima Qian
@wjca: India is not covering for Russia because it feels weak. Like the PRC, India (under whatever government) is a selectively revisionist power that is interested in changing the power structure underlying the international system, at the West’s expense. The BJP is simply much more pugnacious about it, w/ a strong religio- & ethno-nationalist bent. However, India does not want to see power shift from the West to the PRC, so for the time being it is willing to selectively align w/ the US to counterbalance China & contain Chinese advances in South Asia & the Indian Ocean region. Not unlike China in the late Cold War under Deng. Unlike Deng, it does not appear that Modi believes in “biding one’s time & hiding one’s strength”.
Under Modi, India certainly has made significant strides w/ improving literacy/numeracy, improving infrastructure, & industrialization in pockets, though the previous Congress government under Singh laid the foundations. OTOH, Modi is really driving the Indian economy hard toward crony capitalism, where 6 or so mega-conglomerates are strongly favored in secondary & tertiary sectors of the economy (like the South Korean chaebols before the AFC). Still a very long way to go. A not well known fact: despite having a larger population now, India’s labor force remains a third lower than China’s, dues to the former’s very poor female participation rate.
The US is selectively revisionist to preserve its preeminence in the international system, & the rest of the West is somewhat ambivalent about such endeavor (supportive of efforts to preserve the West’s privileged position, & not when the US is revising at their expense or threaten to drag them into a Cold War w/ the PRC that they do not want).
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: The Global South today is much more than Sub-Saharan Africa, & much more than the collection of dirty poor & newly independent states of the Cold War. The current Global South includes a range of middle & high income countries in SE Asia, the Persian Gulf & Latin America, relatively poor but very populous countries in South Asia & Africa, & poor/unstable but resource rich (critical for both the petrol based & new energy based economies) in Central Asia & Sub-Saharan Africa, or poor/unstable but strategically located countries in the Middle East & the South Pacific.
The days that the global agenda can be dictated by the West is long gone. Both DC & Brussels have belatedly & reluctantly come to the realization.
unctuous
@Alison Rose:
That’s music to my ears.