So let’s try this again. My MacBook Pro appears to be fine. Clock and calendar are correct, everything is where it should be, I think I just lost sight of where the battery was in regard to its charge and it ran down on me. Anyhow, it was a weird day. All the major reporters and analysts covering Russia turned it up way past 11 this AM because the Duma started passing all sorts of weird stuff. A law that makes it illegal for Russian military personnel to surrender, as well as to refuse to fight and a few other things. Then it fast tracked legislation regarding general mobilization and war. Before that had even cleared the upper chamber and been signed it was posted on an outward facing website as signed into law. Also, the LPR and DPR announced they would be holding referenda this week to formally join Russia, or, as they’re putting it, re-join Russia, as will Zaporizhzhia. And this was all topped off by the announcement that Putin would be giving an address at 8 PM Moscow time and that when he was done, Minister of Defense Shoigu would speak. It looked something like this:
It is expected that Russian president Vladimir Putin makes a special statement on Ukraine today at 20-00 msk, after that a statement from minister of defence Sergey Shoygu is expected
— Elena Chernenko (@ElenaChernenko) September 20, 2022
Kremlin pool reporters now saying Shoigu will speak alongside Putin. https://t.co/W61GiMnyor
— max seddon (@maxseddon) September 20, 2022
The Carnegie Endowment’s Tatyana Stanovaya made this prediction:
Tatyana @Stanovaya whose predictions of the war have sadly for all of us been consistently true says the Kremlin with the Duma vote today and referendum announcement is gearing up for an "all-out war" unless Ukraine and the West back down.
— Nataliya Vasilyeva (@Nat_Vasilyeva) September 20, 2022
And, of course, the usual panic set in among Russians who might have to actually fight Putin’s losing cause.
The Ukrainian MOD basically said: “Want some, come get some!”
Ruscist reconstructionists in the occupied territories never tire of repeating the Nazi referendum on the Anschluss of Austria. They are expecting 1938 results. Instead they will get Hitler’s 1945 outcome.
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 20, 2022
Then about 9 Moscow time, RT’s editor ordered all Russians to bed!
“Go to sleep,” RT editor Margarita Simonyan writes. Seems like we may not be getting a Putin speech today https://t.co/xiOU6vBOeP
— max seddon (@maxseddon) September 20, 2022
So just your average Tuesday!
Before we move on, my assessment here is that the plan was, and may still be, that Putin is going to state that the LPR and DPR and other Russian occupied parts of Ukraine are all historically really part of Russia. Now that Ukraine has counter attacked and pushed Russia way back in Kharkiv, is making progress in Kherson, and appears to be gearing up to continue the push from Kharkiv east and south, Ukraine has invaded Russia. And, so, reluctantly, Putin has no choice but to declare war and move to a more general if not a fully general mobilization to repel the Ukrainian Banderite NAZI invaders. Invaders who are being backed and supported by NATO and are committing the most horrific war crimes and crimes against humanity against the Russian people.
While all of that is bullshit and would continue to be bullshit if he says it, just releases it as a press statement, or it is put into an interpretive dance. But the thinking is that Putin’s concept of what is happening and what he needs to do is rooted in a seemingly unshakeable belief that if Putin suddenly calls what he is doing a defensive war against invasion, then NATO will fracture and stop supporting Ukraine. This is part of his overall thinking that NATO members will simply get tired of supporting Ukraine and just drift away over time. I don’t think this will work, but I’m also not fully enthralled by an alternative history and mythology I helped promote and now can no longer discern from actual reality.
None of that happened today because Putin’s address was called off. So we wait to see what the Moscow Circus has for us tomorrow.
And now back to last night’s post, but today! After the jump!
War for Ukraine Day 209: Countering Information WarfarePost + Comments (123)