As became apparent early this morning the attempted coup to overthrow President Erdogan’s government failed. And it failed pretty spectacularly. There are several reasons for this. The first is that this was, despite all the initial reporting, not a coup led by even a majority of the senior military leadership. While a number of general officers/flag officers have been arrested, what we now know is that this was not organized by a majority of the senior Turkish military leadership. General Hulusi Akar, the Chief of Staff of the Turkish Armed Forces was taken and held hostage by those involved with the coup. This is why the initial reporting that he had declared that the military had taken over was quickly deleted and replaced with the statement from “The Turkish Armed Forces”. General Akar was freed early this morning. Other general officers/flag officers, however, quickly stepped in to fill the leadership void.
A second major contributing factor to the coup’s failure was that those involved did not capture the Turkish leadership. President Erdogan was not in the capitol; he was at a resort on the Black Sea Mediterranean. No one involved with the coup either planned to or tried were able to take him into custody like they did with General Akar and a number of other senior uniformed leaders. The same can be said for Prime Minister Yldirim and other senior leaders in Turkey’s executive branch and parliament. Moreover, the coupe plotters and leaders did not have the support of even the opposition parties in the Turkish Parliament. If you cannot even get the support of the Kurdish opposition party in an attempt to overthrow the Turkish government, you are not going to be successful!
The coup also failed because those organizing and participating in it were unable to actually enforce their orders of curfew and restrictions on movement. They could not hold the airports, which allowed President Erdogan to return from the Black Sea during the coup. This was a huge Information Operations victory for him and his government. And they were unable to secure the streets. Turkish law enforcement and Turkish citizens quickly responded to President Erdogan’s calls to take to the streets to protect democracy and rebuff the coup. The result was Turkish Soldiers being arrested by Turkish police and being forced to stand down by Turkish citizens.
The coup organizers and participants were also unable to stop the signal. While coup participants took quick control of a state broadcaster and ultimately worked their way to the Hurriyet Building that houses CNN Turk, Hurriyet News, and several other news outlets, they were unable to maintain control of the message. President Erdogan, Prime Minister Yldirim, and others were able to utilize a variety of social media platforms to indicate that they were free, provide instructions to loyal military and law enforcement forces, and to the Turkish citizenry. This is a good example of where social media had a significant effect on actual events in real time, which has not always been the case in the past.
And because the coup plotters couldn’t stop the signal, they were also not able to provide a united front and the coup as a successful fait accompli to the rest of the world. As a result a wide variety of leaders, from the EU, NATO, America, Germany, Britain, Pakistan, Russia, and and a number of other states and movements quickly weighed in with support for President Erdogan and the democratically elected government of Turkey.
The result of failing to have a united military and law enforcement leadership, or at least a majority thereof; the failure to seize the Turkish civilian leadership; the inability to actually seize and hold the airports and the streets; not lining up and securing opposition political support; and finally being unable to stop the signal, gain control of communications, and dominate what information did and did not go out all contributed to the coup’s failure. The Erdogan government has quickly moved to reestablish its authority and restore order. President Erdogan has had over 2,800 military personnel arrested, as well as dismissing over 2,700 judges for alleged ties to the Gulenist opposition. He has also closed the airspace over Incirlik Airbase and demanded that the US extradite Fuleithi Gulen to Turkey. It is unclear if the closing of the Incirlik airspace is intended to pressure the US, but given that a significant number of US air strikes on the Islamic State in Syria originate from Incirlik Airbase this would be a reasonable assumption. With Incirlik closed, these air strikes will have to be shifted to other air fields and/or carrier groups.
The major result of the coup, and one that President Erdogan seemed to foreshadow with his statement caught on a hot microphone that it was “a gift from God”, will be his cementing control. While the conspiracy theories that the coup was actually instigated by Erdogan to allow him to purge the military and judiciary and consolidate more control have already begun, it is clear that he has wasted no time taking advantage of it. While I think the conspiracy theories are far fetched, Erdogan is a smart man and a shrewd and when necessary ruthless politician. He understands the advantage he was just provided with. The judiciary purge was done very, very quickly and that would seem to indicate that he, and his immediate circle of advisors, had a list of judges that they suspected of being affiliated with Gulen or just being disloyal and were simply waiting for an opportunity to move against them. The coup has provided that and only a very poor politician would have failed to take advantage of the opportunity to consolidate power and control. What remains to be seen is what President Erdogan does with the opportunity he’s been presented as we move farther away from the actual coup. And that is a question that only time can answer.
A Final Postscript (8:55 PM EDT)
On think that occurred to me after I hit post is the question of what does the Turkish citizenry do now in the new, post-coup reality? President Erdogan has explicitly empowered them; doing so by calling them out to preserve democracy and the Turkish constitutional order as counter-coup participants. As President Erdogan consolidates his power, and, perhaps, extends it post-coup, the question will be what does a Turkish citizenry that he empowered as defenders of democracy do if they, or a significant portion of them, decide he’s gone to far. Here too only time will tell, but as every good strategic thinker understands: every solution creates new opportunities, challenges, and threats. We will have to see what new problems are created by President Erdogan’s solution to the threat and challenge of yesterday’s coup.
Time to Talk Turkey: The Coup de YesterjourPost + Comments (122)