I want to lay out some things that I think I know or at least I think that I think.
- Lots of people are going to be hurt. The leopards are going to be feasting on faces of people who voted for the leopard eating faces party. Lots of people who voted against the leopards are going to be hurt too.
- It looks like the national shift was a near uniform
4 to 56 points to the right from 2020.- Internationally, being an incumbent party in 2024 is a truly bad spot to be with historic wipeouts not uncommon
- The big exception to
4 or 5 point6 shift to the right were in the swing states where there was a very active and engaged campaign. - The swing states moved right by
12 to 3 points. - The Harris campaign in these states likely had a substantial pro-DEM campaign effect of several points
- I’m betting that we can disaggregate mobilization effects to advertising/media effects by looking at vote swings in counties/precincts in non-swing states that get swing state messaging (ie the South Carolina suburbs of Charlotte got bombarded by TV ads but did not get the full GOTV mobilization effort while a decent chunk of SC got nearly no advertising nor GOTV mobilization from the national party… was there differential swing in the SC Charlotte suburbs relative to Charlestown or Columbia SC or was the NC result entirely a ground game result)
- Everyone in the Democratic Party has a very strong incentive to make immediate and large claims about what the problem was and how to fix it as a way to claim within faction positions and priorities.
- We are unlikely to have good enough voter file data for these arguments for a few months
- UPDATE: Hell, several states have yet to receive or count a substantial percentage of their ballots yet. We won’t have rough near final counts for another week or more.
- Given near uniform swings in big states and small states, red states and blue states, causal explanations that are hyper campaign/tactical focused are pushing one hell of a boulder up the evidentiary hill.
- The GOP did not have substantial Presidential coat-tails
- The Senate GOP pick-ups were 2 ruby red (MT and WV), 1 pretty red (Ohio) and perhaps 1 swing state (PA) pick-ups
- The GOP January House Caucus is +/-2 members from their Caucus size today
- I don’t think there was a governorship flip in either direction
Check in on your people today.
Build community, solidarity and kindness as we’re going to need it for the next fifty months.
But let’s figure out what happened instead of what we believe to have happened as engaging with reality as it is instead of as it is wished to be makes recovery more likely.
Mechanics and what we think we might think about last TuesdayPost + Comments (86)