This may be the first legitimate challenge to my sobriety.
Election 2016
Schlock Monster Movie Open Thread: It Came From the Republican Id
I get it, I get it
You don’t want to write about Trump bc you don’t respect him
But you’re a political journalist
No one respects you either
— Ben Dreyfuss (@bendreyfuss) August 5, 2015
Dave Weigel, at the Washington Post: “Political data gurus wrote off Trump. Here’s how they’re defending that.”
… In a rough year for polling analysis, the Trump surge stands out. The first-time candidate whom so many people wrote off has done for 2016 what Isaac Asimov’s Mule did for the psycho-historians of Foundation — a conquest from out of nowhere, unpredicted by any of the calculations, turning his enemies’ blasted palaces into new (and classy) throne rooms…
That might mean that the days of writing off Trump are over. His fate is not predetermined by polls or by prior right-wing insurgencies. The press may actually have to cover a campaign….
Percent who said they'd never vote for Trump in early June Fox poll: 59. Percent who say that now: 33. http://t.co/RnmqUX57yf
— Byron York (@ByronYork) August 3, 2015
Professor Krugman:
… So now the conventional wisdom is that we’re witnessing a temporary triumph of style over substance; Republican voters like Trump’s bluster, and haven’t (yet) realized that he isn’t making sense.
But if you ask me, the people who are really mistaking style for substance are the pundits. It’s true that Trump isn’t making sense — but neither are the mainstream contenders for the GOP nomination.
On economics, both Jeb Bush and Scott Walker are into deep voodoo. Bush takes his experience of presiding over a giant housing bubble in his state, as proof that he can double America’s underlying growth rate. Walker is Brownback-light: his governorship on Wisconsin was premised on the proposition that tax cuts, spending cuts, and union-bashing can create an economic miracle, but the reality is budget deficits and subpar growth, lagging in particular the performance of neighboring Minnesota…
So why is Trump regarded as ludicrous, while Bush and Walker are serious? Again, on the substance they’re all ludicrous; but pundits are taken in by the sober-sounding personal style of the runners-up, while voters apparently are not…
The fun thing about Donald Trump in the debate is it's so much harder to dog whistle when somebody is already feeding the rabid mutt steak.
— Bob Schooley (@Rschooley) August 6, 2015
Schlock Monster Movie Open Thread: <em>It Came From the Republican Id</em>Post + Comments (24)
“Consolation Debate Begins”
Thank goddess for the Guardian, whose dedicated correspondents are live-blogging even now.
ETA: Hat tip commentor Trollhattan — TBogg is curating debate questions we want to hear. “If you had a soul, how much would you sell it for?”
FOX NEWS REPUBLICAN DEBATE MODERATOR: You're terrible. Why are you terrible?
CANDIDATE: We can make America great again.
— Matt Pearce (@mattdpearce) August 6, 2015
Open Thread: Minor Historical Anniversary
From Digby:
14 years ago [today], George W. Bush was sitting on his porch at the fake ranch in Crawford when he received a memo entitled “Bin Laden determined to strike inside the United States.” It was later reported he told the briefer, “All right. You’ve covered your ass now.” And then he went fishing…
Any odds of this being raised at tonight’s debate (hahahahaha)?…
"What you need to know is that who I listen to when I need advice on the Middle East is George W. Bush." – Jeb! https://t.co/jvGPk7xO5j
— Bob Schooley (@Rschooley) August 6, 2015
Open Thread: Minor Historical AnniversaryPost + Comments (69)
Open Thread: Warm-Up Bout
Hey, I just met you
and this is crazy
but here’s my number
so run for president, maybe? http://t.co/on9HObWrG2
— daveweigel (@daveweigel) August 5, 2015
Free tip for Trump if this Clinton call becomes an issue in the debate http://t.co/O5zopGULt8
— daveweigel (@daveweigel) August 5, 2015
I’m glad Dave Weigel is back at the Washington Post, because with a platform in the company paper he can best get under the skin of the professional political class.
If Bill Clinton nudged Trump into the race it will go down in the Trolling Hall of Fame. http://t.co/ZJb4autvYy pic.twitter.com/azFX6Kk4Pq
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) August 5, 2015
Bill Clinton will forever be the president of lulz.
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) August 5, 2015
Of course, nobody’s skin is thinner than a Bush’s…
Uh oh… Jeb Bush called Donald Trump an "asshole" and a "buffoon"
http://t.co/t4kgwMzpFe
— Taegan Goddard (@politicalwire) August 6, 2015
Texas Voter Suppression Law Struck Down
A Fifth Circuit panel has declared Texas’s voter ID law unconstitutional, setting up a potentially huge Supreme Court battle.
The plaintiffs, including individual voters, civil rights groups and the Department of Justice, said it was discriminatory because a far greater share of poor people and minorities do not have these forms of identification and lack easy access to birth certificates or other documents needed to obtain them.
Student identifications, voter registration cards and utility bills are not considered acceptable proof of identity.
In a sweeping ruling in 2014, a federal district court in Texas agreed with the plaintiffs about the effect the law had on minority voters.
But it also said legislators had intentionally adopted a discriminatory law, a conclusion that could have led to a restoration of federal oversight over Texas voting laws.
Although the appeals court upheld the finding of discriminatory effect, the three-judge panel said the lower court must re-examine its conclusion that Texas acted with discriminatory purpose.
Texas could appeal to the full Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans or the United States Supreme Court.
In a statement issued Wednesday afternoon, Gov. Greg Abbott did not say whether the state would appeal.
But the governor did say, “Texas will continue to fight for its voter ID requirement to ensure the integrity of elections in the Lone Star State.”
So the good news is that the courts think the voter ID law is discriminatory, the question is whether or not Texas Republicans did it on purpose. We’ll see where Abbott goes next, but I would hope that the law would face an injunction for the 2016 election as a result and not be in effect.
Besides, Abbott has a few legal problems with his Attorney General, from what I understand…
Thursday Morning Open Thread: Getchur Popcorn & Rolled-Up Socks Ready…
The 9pm debate is all about name ID…if @KingJames ran for president he would be in that debate & @JohnKasich would be next to me @greta
— George E. Pataki (@GovernorPataki) August 5, 2015
Kasich walks by a table at a hotel in downtown Cleveland. Dude next to me asks who he is. (Governor of this state.)
— daveweigel (@daveweigel) August 5, 2015
Your National Paper of Record, Americans!…
CLEVELAND — Just over 24 hours before the first Republican primary debate here, more than a dozen Fox News executives and producers gathered Wednesday with their debate moderators — Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly and Chris Wallace — backstage at Quicken Loans Arena for a final run-through of logistics.
“I don’t think anybody knows — maybe he doesn’t know — what you’re going to get from Donald Trump,” Mr. Wallace said after the meeting. “What makes it such compelling television is that sense of, at the very least, uncertainty, and at the very most, danger.”
And so they found themselves, sitting at a long table, trying to minimize danger and uncertainty, while maximizing the sleek and high-octane television for which Fox News has become known. The team had already decided to eliminate opening statements from the field, to save time. Instead, at 9 p.m. sharp, the questions will begin.
To keep the debate on schedule, the Fox team was also discussing a possible alternative to the usual gentle ding sound that signals that a candidate’s time has expired: the actual shot clock buzzer used during Cleveland Cavaliers basketball games, which are played at the same arena….
The WaPo, meanwhile, treats this as just another business convention for the local industry:
Chris Wallace tapped the black three-ring binder resting on the corner of his desk. “I’ve got some doozies in there,” he said, eyebrow raised provocatively…
“There’s so doggone many,” said Wallace, 67, sitting at his desk in Fox’s Washington bureau. The decision to pack the stage was made above his pay grade, he adds. “Will [the debate] be as great as it would be if there were three or four candidates? No. But it’s clear from the polls, people are far from decided.”
But now the decision-making begins, with an event that TV analysts predict could draw the highest ratings in cable-news history. And as the candidates attempt to make their first impressions before a national audience, you can count on the veteran newsman to leave his imprint on this moment by interrupting, prodding and pressing the debaters in his trademark fashion.
“I certainly think my style is adversarial,” he said, absentmindedly pushing his penny loafers around under his desk with socked feet…
I believe it was commentor Gimlet who suggested rolled-up socks for throwing at the tv, as less liable to cause collateral damage than drink glasses…
"Candidates, please describe a situation in which you use lethal force against a home invader. Most vivid wins, please specify the handgun."
— David Roth (@david_j_roth) August 5, 2015
Ted Cruz: this is what i'll do to planned parenthood [tries ripping phone book in half & gives up]
Jake Tapper: the question was about iraq
— raandy (@randygdub) August 5, 2015
@david_j_roth "Walls are for soft men. I would personally stand on the border naked, with a crudgel, intensely red and not mad at all."
— Huge Mantis (@HugeMantis) August 5, 2015
@david_j_roth "Look, we all want to create guns you can have sex with. The question is: how are we going to pay for it?"
— Matt Christman (@cushbomb) August 5, 2015
Then there’s always that one killjoy…
I wonder how much of tomorrow's GOP debates this graph could falsify. pic.twitter.com/WDqU3Zbo3p
— Daniel Drezner (@dandrezner) August 6, 2015
Thursday Morning Open Thread: Getchur Popcorn & Rolled-Up Socks Ready…Post + Comments (110)