When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.
The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Confirms the US Intelligence Community’s Assessment’s Findings on Russian Interference in the 2016 US Elections
The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI) has issued an unclassified, preliminary, summary report that confirms the Intelligence Community’s Assessment that Russia did interfere in the 2016 presidential election and did so in support of the President and his campaign. Let’s start with the Conclusion.
Conclusion
Finally, the Committee notes that, as is the case with all intelligence questions, information continues to be gathered and analyzed. The Committee believes the conclusions of the ICA are sound, and notes that collection and analysis subsequent to the ICA’s publication continue to reinforce its assessments. The Committee will remain vigilant in its oversight of the ongoing challenges presented by foreign nations attempting to secretly influence U.S. affairs.
From the report:
Initial Findings
Summary
The Committee finds that the Intelligence Community met President Obama’s tasking and that the ICA is a sound intelligence product. While the Committee had to rely on agencies that the sensitive information and accesses had been accurately reported, as part of our inquiry the Committee reviewed analytic procedures, interviewed senior intelligence officers well-versed with the information, and based our findings on the entire body of intelligence reporting included in the ICA.
The Committee finds the difference in confidence levels between the NSA and the CIA and FBI on the assessment that “Putin and the Russian Government aspired to help President-elect Trump’s election chances” appropriately represents analytic differences and was reached in a professional and transparent manner.
In all the interviews of those who drafted and prepared the ICA, the Committee heard consistently that analysts were under no politically motivated pressure to reach any conclusions. All analysts expressed that they were free to debate, object to content, and assess confidence levels, as is normal and proper for the analytic process.
As the inquiry has progressed since January 2017, the Committee has seen additional examples of Russia’s attempts to sow discord, undermine democratic institutions, and interfere in U.S. elections and those of our allies.
And now we get to the important parts:
Russian Efforts to Influence the 2016 Election
The ICA states that: Russian efforts to influence the 2016 U.S. presidential election represent the most recent expression of Moscow’s longstanding desire to undermine the U.S.-led liberal democratic order, but these activities demonstrated a significant escalation in directness, level of activity, and scope of effort compared to previous operations1 .
• The Committee found that this judgment was supported by the evidence presented in the ICA. Since its publication, further details have come to light that bolster the assessment.
• The ICA pointed to initial evidence of Russian activities against multiple U.S. state or local electoral boards. Since the ICA was published, the Committee has learned more about Russian attempts to infiltrate state election infrastructure, as outlined in the findings and recommendations the Committee issued in March 2018.
• While the ICA briefly discussed the activities of the Internet Research Agency, the Committee’s investigation has exposed a far more extensive Russian effort to manipulate social media outlets to sow discord and to interfere in the 2016 election and American society.
Russian Leadership Intentions
The ICA states that: We assess Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign in 2016 aimed at the U.S. presidential election. Russia’s goals were to undermine public faith in the U.S. democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency. We further assess Putin and the Russian Government developed a clear preference for President-elect Trump2 .
• The Committee found that the ICA provided a range of all-source reporting to support these assessments.
• The Committee concurs with intelligence and open-source assessments that this influence campaign was approved by President Putin. • Further, a body of reporting, to include different intelligence disciplines, open source reporting on Russian leadership policy preferences, and Russian media content, showed that Moscow sought to denigrate Secretary Clinton.
• The ICA relies on public Russian leadership commentary, Russian state media reports, public examples of where Russian interests would have aligned with candidates’ policy statements, and a body of intelligence reporting to support the assessment that Putin and the Russian Government developed a clear preference for Trump.
The ICA also states that:
We also assess Putin and the Russian Government aspired to help President-elect Trump’s election chances when possible by discrediting Secretary Clinton and publicly contrasting her unfavorably to him3.
• The Committee found that the ICA provided intelligence and open source reporting to support this assessment, and information obtained subsequent to publication of the ICA provides further support.
• This is the only assessment in the ICA that had different confidence levels between the participating agencies -the CIA and FBI assessed with “high confidence”and the NSA assessed with “moderate confidence”-so the Committee gave this section additional attention.
The Committee found that the analytical disagreement was reasonable, transparent, and openly debated among the agencies and analysts, with analysts, managers, and agency heads on both sides of the confidence level articulately justifying their positions.
Russian Cyber Operations
The ICA states that: Russia’s intelligence services conducted cyber operations against targets associated with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, including targets associated with both major U.S. political parties. We assess Russian intelligence services collected against the U.S . primary campaigns, think tanks, and lobbying groups they viewed as likely to shape future U.S. policies. In July 2015, Russian intelligence gained access to Democratic National Committee (DNC) networks and maintained that access until at least June 2016.4
• The Committee found this judgment supported by intelligence and further supported by our own investigation. Separate from the ICA, the Committee has conducted interviews of key individuals who have provided additional insights into these incidents.
1 Intelligence Community Assessment: Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent U.S. Elections, 6 January 2017. P.ii. (NOTE: all page numbers referenced are from the Unclassified I CA)
2 Intelligence Community Assessment: Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions inRecent U.S. Elections, 6 January 2017. P.ii. 3 Intelligence Community Assessment: Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent U.S. Elections, 6 January 2017.P.ii.
4 Intelligence Community Assessment: Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent U.S. Elections, 6 January 2017. P.2.
Much more at the link. Or just click here for the report: SSCI ICA ASSESSMENT_FINALJULY3
Right now the Man from Lajes begins planning for his next gambit…
Stay clandestine.
Open thread!
Repub Venality Open Thread: TASS Takes A Victory Lap
Thanks to Senator ‘Shakedown’ Shelby, who seems to be trying to upgrade his place in history from grifter to traitor…
US, Russia ‘do not need to be adversaries’, says head of US congressional delegation
ST. PETERSBURG, July 2. /TASS/. Russia and the US need to improve the relations that are considered tense at the present time, both countries do not have to be rivals even in light of all existing differences, Head of the US Congressional Delegation to Russia and Senator for Alabama Richard Shelby stated during a meeting with Governor of St. Petersburg Georgy Poltavchenko.“Right now, we have a strained relationship,” he said. “A lot of us believe it is important to have a better relationship with Russia. And obviously, that is the current thought of President Trump.”…
The US delegation consists of Alabama Senator and Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee Richard Shelby, Louisiana Senator John Kennedy, North Dakota Senator John Hoeven, South Dakota Senator John Thune, Kansas Senator Jerry Moran, Montana Senator Steve Daines, as well as member of the US House of Representatives from Texas Kay Granger.
The US congressional delegation arrived in Russia on Saturday. Their first visit has been to St. Petersburg. They will then come to Moscow, where they will stay until July 5. In Moscow, the delegation members have set out to meet with Russian officials from the Federation Council (upper house of Russian parliament) and the Russian Foreign Ministry.
Who wants to spend Independence Day hanging around *Americans*, after all, celebrating the overthrow of tyrants and the equality of people who are not “super-elites”?
.@margbrennan asks @AmbJohnBolton if, on AF1, @POTUS left the door open to recognizing Russia’s annexation of Crimea:
BOLTON: That's not the position of the United States.
BRENNAN: Right. But saying we'll see suggests might be.
BOLTON: Well we'll see. pic.twitter.com/jmFR6B3Vhz— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) July 1, 2018
DO NOT CAPITULATE https://t.co/fBUz6YUIrA
— Schooley (@Rschooley) June 30, 2018
Repub Venality Open Thread: TASS Takes A Victory LapPost + Comments (40)
[Facepalm] Adventures Open Thread: “Fair & Reciprocal Trade”
Folks, I’m gonna go out on a limb and suggest that the Fair and Reciprocal Trade Act is foul, but mostly hot air. https://t.co/uQ0mtmcEB4
— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) July 2, 2018
Of course, we know Trump doesn’t believe any transaction can be both “fair” and “reciprocal” — in Donny Dollhand’s tiny mind, either he’s winning or he’ll make everybody lose.
Right now, I’m 50/50 on whether the acronym was invented by some cultist minion who figured the most important thing was to Pwn Tha Libs… or by a shell-shocked intern who decided, At this point, getting fired by Trump can only improve my resume.
They named the bill the FART Act. I am not making this up. "The bill, titled the 'United States Fair and Reciprocal Tariff Act,' would give Trump unilateral power to ignore the two most basic principles of the WTO and negotiate one-on-one with any country" https://t.co/WqeaMLqLbj
— Garance Franke-Ruta (@thegarance) July 2, 2018
Eric Levitz, at NYMag:
Donald Trump hates the status quo system of global trade, multilateral institutions, and constraints on his authority.
Thus, the World Trade Organization (WTO) — a multilateral institution that structures global trade by constraining the authority of nation-states — is a natural nemesis for the economic-nationalist-in-chief.…
To be fair, the legislation would certainly create a big stink. The FART Act would give President Trump unilateral authority to impose tariffs (of unlimited size) on any foreign nation, for any earthly reason. The bill would not formally withdraw the United States from the WTO, but it would effectively do so, by nullifying two of the organization’s core rules:
(1) the “Most Favored Nation” principle, which bars WTO members from setting disparate tariff rates on different countries outside of formal trade agreements
(2) the ceiling on tariff rates that were established in previous WTO negotiations…
Fortunately, all signs suggest that the FART Act is just a bunch of hot air. There is an approximately zero percent change that Congress would ever pass such a measure. For all the talk of Trump “transforming” the Republican Party, it remains the case that his signature immigration legislation — which would have upset a variety of business interests, by cutting legal immigration in half — failed to garner more than 38 GOP votes in the Senate. And the WTO bill would, of course, threaten corporate America far more than Trump’s immigration ambitions ever did. Anyhow, according to Axios, the White House has done essentially nothing to advance the legislation since it was drafted in late May…
So much foul gassing, so little accomplished.
Fart jokes aside, who would look at the status quo and decide it’s a good idea to give Trump *more* authority to raise tariffs
— Catherine Rampell (@crampell) July 2, 2018
How hard would it be, theoretically, to add bubbles to this graphic? https://t.co/6ebzdELvrU
— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) July 2, 2018
[Facepalm] Adventures Open Thread: “Fair & Reciprocal Trade”Post + Comments (74)
Happy Canada Day!
A Happy and Healthy Canada Day to all our readers, commenters, and/or lurkers from the Great White North!
I used to send a different video version of this song to my late, and dearly missed, colleague who was originally from Quebec every year on Canada Day. It is considered to be one of Canada’s unofficial anthems. So this is for you Donna – repose en paix.
Open thread!
Russiagate Open Thread: Trump & His Fellow Repubs to the Finland Station
This is where the formal surrender documents will be signed. pic.twitter.com/2hXz03aCI3
— Benjamin Wittes (@benjaminwittes) June 28, 2018
“Let the past die. Kill it if you have to.” https://t.co/dvocveHAfc
— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) June 27, 2018
be grateful to be alive at a time when your country needs saving https://t.co/1LlMGbQ2l3
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) June 27, 2018
The President once again defending Russia’s innocence in electoral sabotage that *helped him get elected*, as he sets up a summit w Putin is the same as his “Russia, if you’re listening” moment. He’s telling them to keep going! He’s rooting them on.
— Chris Hayes (@chrislhayes) June 28, 2018
Yesterday, Secretary Pompeo said he was certain that Trump would confront Putin about election meddling. Today, Trump sets him straight. pic.twitter.com/MU66WQyLV7
— Taylor Griffin (@tgriffinnc) June 28, 2018
So I know you're ready for your quarterly review in Helsinki when you're sucking up to the bosses at the home office. https://t.co/vQE3cnoKvM
— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) June 28, 2018
I suppose it could be a kompromat issue for these six, too, but IMO it’s more likely they’ve just decided Putin is the one with the power and they’re irresistably drawn to power…
Senators visiting Russia say they hope Trump shares their tough message to Putin – ABC News – https://t.co/1iJgLmgIrt via @ABC
— Ali Rogin (@AliABCNews) June 28, 2018
… “Russia has decided to meddle in other countries’ elections, including ours. Russia has invaded Ukraine, taken Crimea, it’s prolonging the war in Syria. And I’d prefer to be a friend of Russia and that’s one of the things we’re going to talk about. I would like to respectfully ask the Russians to stay in their own lane,” Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., one of the senators who will be on the trip.
“It’s useful for the Russians to know that we are of the belief, evidence is clear, that they intruded in our elections and it will be something I hope that members of Congress convey,” added Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kansas, also noting that senators had planned their trip before the Trump/Putin summit, to be held in Helsinki on July 16, was announced.
The meeting was organized by Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard Shelby, R-Ala., who told ABC Thursday that they are hoping to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, but that the meetings were not yet confirmed. Other attendees include Sens. Steve Daines, R-Mont., John Hoeven, R-N.D. and John Thune, R-S.D…
Shortly before traveling to Moscow with several colleagues, a senior Republican senator all but gave Russia a green light for future interference in U.S. elections https://t.co/piYURK8Vxr
— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) June 28, 2018
Russiagate Open Thread: Trump & His Fellow Repubs to the Finland StationPost + Comments (50)
Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein and FBI Director Wray Testify Before the House Judiciary Committee
The Deputy Attorney General and FBI Director Wray are currently before the House Judiciary Committee. DAG Rosenstein is trying to testify, but Congressman Jordan won’t stop screaming at him. Rosenstein has clearly had enough. The live feed is below. I’ve got it set to start with Jordan’s abuse of Rosenstein so you can see just what the climate is like.
Open thread!