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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

I would try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

It’s all just conspiracy shit beamed down from the mothership.

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

Let’s bury these fuckers at the polls 2 years from now.

Nothing says ‘pro-life’ like letting children go hungry.

There are some who say that there are too many strawmen arguments on this blog.

Everybody saw this coming.

You are either for trump or for democracy. Pick one.

They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

Disagreements are healthy; personal attacks are not.

Nancy smash is sick of your bullshit.

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

If you don’t believe freedom is for everybody, then the thing you love isn’t freedom, it is privilege.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

“I was told there would be no fact checking.”

You cannot love your country only when you win.

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

A norm that restrains only one side really is not a norm – it is a trap.

“Perhaps I should have considered other options.” (head-desk)

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

If a good thing happens for a bad reason, it’s still a good thing.

When I was faster i was always behind.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Open Thread (and don’t forget to RSVP) and rescheduling the zoom

by WaterGirl|  August 19, 202412:25 pm| 128 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

If you are interested in attending tomorrow’s zoom with the Civics Center, please let us know in the comments and send an email to WaterGirl.

Never mind.  We will reschedule the zoom for after the convention.

The zoom is at 7:30 pm Eastern time.  There are only a small handful of RSVPs at this point, and I’m not sure whether that indicates lack of interest (but who wouldn’t want to come and talk with someone who clerked for RBG?) or focused on the Democratic Convention (so you’re distracted) or if you plan to attend the zoom but just haven’t RSVP’d yet.

I would be surprised if it’s lack of interest because so many of you have written to say how excited you are about this group.  So I am perplexed!

Speaking of The Civics Center, PatrickG’s $2,500 Angel match from yesterday is complete, and he added that to the thermometer this morning.


Donate

Open Thread (<s>and don’t forget to RSVP)</s> and rescheduling the zoomPost + Comments (128)

What Does It Mean to Fight? Part 2

by @heymistermix.com|  August 19, 202410:04 am| 223 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

What Does It Mean to Fight?  Part 2

This is KamalaHQ on Instagram.  In case you can’t read the reply, it says:

No, @realdonaldtrump, we posted a video of your empty rally taken *while* you were speaking.

Americans are tired of your lies and slur-filled delusions. It’s getting… old

In the last post on this topic, I mentioned the apparently low-effort Colin Allred Senate campaign in Texas, and those of you familiar with it said that you’re disappointed that he’s running a pretty standard campaign that’s probably going to lose.  (Though, to be fair, almost any statewide campaign in Texas is probably going to lose — Beto ran good campaigns and lost, too.)

Anyway, this kind of stuff was going around on Bluesky and it’s a dman good question:

What Does It Mean to Fight?  Part 2 1

Tim Ryan raised around $50 million in his open-seat campaign against Vance in 2022.  Most of the cat lady, post-menopausal female bullshit that we’re hearing today was stuff JD said while he was running for Senate, yet we heard none of it then (that I know about).

I started blogging back in the Paleolithic age, around 2006, starting up a blog that covered New York’s 29th Congressional District.  Eric Massa was the candidate challenging mediocre Republican Randy Kuhl, and Massa’s campaign was a shoestring operation, especially in 2006.  (He won in 2008 and then resigned after a sex scandal.). Massa’s media operation, run by one of his few staffers, had the goal of getting in the paper every day.  And they dogged Kuhl, dredging up everything he said in town halls and press releases and hitting back.

One would expect that a $50 million political campaign would have one smart media person listening to all of Vance’s appearances, picking on the ones that looked terrible, and issuing a press release as well as a social media post about it.  But apparently that was beyond the pale for Ryan.  Maybe some Ohio commenters could tell me if I’m wrong, but sometimes it’s hard to tell a Democratic campaign from an Elizabeth Bishop poem:

The art of losing isn’t hard to master;
so many things seem filled with the intent
to be lost that their loss is no disaster.
(I say this as someone who worked on campaigns when I was young.  I have no doubt that the volunteers and most of the staff for Ryan and Allred worked/are working their asses off.  This isn’t a criticism of them, but of the leadership that wasted/is wasting their energy and enthusiasm.)

What Does It Mean to Fight? Part 2Post + Comments (223)

Monday Morning Open Thread: Dems in Array!

by Anne Laurie|  August 19, 20248:46 am| 125 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Kamala Harris for President, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat

Man oh man oh man oh man!! The kickoff Navy Pier fireworks show for the Democratic National Convention was amazing! One of the craziest finales I’ve ever seen! #dnc #chicago #summer #fireworks #HarrisWalz pic.twitter.com/Hql3Clf8cT

— Human? (@rmuench22) August 19, 2024

Presenting your official celebrity hosts for the @DemConvention!#HarrisWalz2024 pic.twitter.com/gJs54SwoYf

— KAMALA NATION (@KamalaNation) August 19, 2024

Democratic National Convention reveals theme for each night of Chicago event https://t.co/WiXmsP9b86

— Joey Garrison (@joeygarrison) August 18, 2024

… The title of the four-day convention is “For the People, For Our Future,” with Democrats hoping to use the festivities to introduce Harris and running-mate Gov. Tim Walz to the nation after Harris quickly secured the nomination following President Joe Biden’s exit from the race last month.

“The story here is simple and it’s one that will resonate with Americans across the country: Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are fighting for the American people and America’s future. Donald Trump is only fighting for himself,” said Minyon Moore, the convention’s chair…

Monday, Aug. 19
The convention kicks off Monday with the theme “For the People.” Biden will be the keynote speaker on a night that will pay tribute to the outgoing president, who dropped out of the race amid pressure from fellow Democrats worried about his chances to beat Republican nominee Donald Trump.

First Lady Jill Biden will address the convention as well Monday night. Harris, who is taking part in a campaign bus tour through western Pennsylvania on Sunday, is expected to arrive at the United Center on Monday to watch the Bidens’ addresses…

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who lost to Trump in the 2016 election, will also address the convention Monday. Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, host of the convention, will speak Monday night as well.

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Tuesday, Aug. 20
Tuesday’s theme is “A Bold Vision for America’s Future,” with former President Barack Obama set to address the convention…

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker will also speak Tuesday night…

Wednesday, Aug. 21
Wednesday’s convention theme is “A Fight for our Freedoms,” with Walz and former President Bill Clinton both giving addresses.

Among those freedoms: reproductive rights…

Look for Democrats to remind Americans repeatedly that Trump’s three Supreme Court justice appointments were instrumental in turning the court to a 6-3 conservative majority that overturned a constitutional right to an abortion.

Thursday, Aug. 22
The convention will conclude Thursday night with the theme “For our Future.” Harris, who was already nominated by the party through a virtual roll-call, will formally accept the nomination and deliver her address.

Democrats will argue that a second Trump presidency would be “even more dangerous than the first one” and cast the election as a “fight for the future.”

The DNC confirmed other convention speakers include Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, both of New York. The party did not say on which night each will speak.

How to watch
The DNC will air the convention live on its website, from the United Center in Chicago between 6:15 p.m. and 11 p.m. Eastern (5:15 p.m. to 10 p.m Central) on Monday, and 7 p.m to 11 p.m. Eastern (6 p.m. to 10 p.m. Central) the other days.

C-SPAN, PBS and other news stations will livestream the convention and most will broadcast the major speeches live.

Still can’t believe I’ll be speaking at this years DNC— but I have to say this wouldn’t be possible without these women. These TX trailblazers who paved the way for young women like me.

Barbara Jordan
Ann Richards
Sheila Jackson Lee pic.twitter.com/4POQNqMQQD

— Olivia Julianna ????????? (@0liviajulianna) August 19, 2024

I’m 22 years old and I’m voting for Kamala Harris in November. Super excited to be in Chicago for the Democratic National Convention! pic.twitter.com/aoqBVCfg9b

— Chris Mowrey (@chrisdmowrey) August 19, 2024

Her grandfather, Cesar Chavez, taught her about activism. Now she's running Harris' campaign https://t.co/gpXSH7rRtF

— Natalie Louise Shorter (Lucas)?? (@NatalieLShorter) August 18, 2024

Live from Chicago with @mintimm & @LaphonzaB!

We’re putting reproductive freedom front and center at the DNC! ???? pic.twitter.com/exB7tGzxVE

— Reproductive Freedom for All (@reproforall) August 18, 2024

We have arrived for all 4 days of the @DemConvention.
The excitement is palpable as #HarrisWalz is more than merely a campaign, it is a genuine movement to save our Democracy! I spoke briefly to the delegates & guess what? They are FIRED UP & ready to go, Go, GO!!!!#LetsDoThis pic.twitter.com/F8NsqaNm2T

— Mark Hamill (@MarkHamill) August 19, 2024

On Monday, for the first time in its history, the Democratic National Convention will hold a panel on Palestinian human rights. We thank the DNC for recognizing this pivotal issue and remain dedicated to pushing VP Harris to stop providing weapons for Israel's assault on Gaza. pic.twitter.com/4rgvlPMG9w

— Uncommitted National Movement 🌺 (@uncommittedmvmt) August 18, 2024

Whoever is projecting "Project 2025 HQ" on the Trump building in Chicago right now deserves all the beers ??????????pic.twitter.com/cdt8O4WJQJ

— Wu Tang is for the Children (@WUTangKids) August 19, 2024

We *could* have done it without you, but now you’re the olive in our martini…
Monday Morning Open Thread: Dems in Array!

(Jeff Danziger via GoComics.com)

Monday Morning Open Thread: Dems in Array!Post + Comments (125)

Energized Dawn Open Thread: The Convention Party Begins

by Anne Laurie|  August 19, 20244:31 am| 140 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Kamala Harris for President, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Readership Capture

My name is Knowa. Tomorrow I’ll be the youngest invited attendee to the DNC convention.

I look forward to nominating @KamalaHarris and @Tim_Walz to lead our ticket to victory in November. 💙🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/hJ7bBSIy36

— Knowa (@KnowaWasTaken) August 18, 2024

Today, we met with high school students, first responders, and volunteers across Pennsylvania.

It couldn’t have been a better day. pic.twitter.com/Bp8qRNdRxw

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) August 19, 2024

As someone on the last thread pointed out: He’s giving his SecSer agents agita, but it’s good to know they *are* fully alert!

Tim Walz, showing Trump and his sad sack of MAGA fascists what 'Coach' energy looks like. 🔥🙌👏👊🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/MDCDk26TYI

— Bill Madden (@maddenifico) August 18, 2024

A viewing guide from watchful expert NotMax, lifted from the last thread:

1) C-SPAN: The network will feature continuous coverage — titled Campaign 2024 — beginning with a preview at 5:30/4:30c on Monday and 6/5c on Tuesday through Thursday.

2) MSNBC: The network will begin its coverage of the contention on […] August 19 at 6/5 with Ari Melber kicking off a special cohosted by Joy Reid, who’ll be on location in Chicago, and followed by coverage anchored by Rachel Maddow and Jen Psaki. Throughout the week, Morning Joe‘s hosts will provide coverage in the morning, with the afternoon shows hosted by Andrea Mitchell and Chris Jansing following suit during their regular hours. On Wednesday, August 21, the network will air MSNBC Live: Access for All as live coverage of the convention. MSNBC’s YouTube page will stream the DNC all four days, and the network’s website and app will feature additional coverage.

3) The DNC will feature a live-stream video on its YouTube channel. Link.

4) PBS: The network will air three hours of nightly coverage — titled PBS News Special: Democratic National Convention — starting at 8/7c, with Amna Nawaz and Geoff Bennett anchoring.

5) Noticias Telemundo: The network will feature daily convention coverage from Monday through Friday, with special editions of the newscast anchored by Juli Vaquiero. Damià Bonmatí will anchor coverage on the streaming channel Noticias Telemundo Ahora (which is available on Peacock and the network’s digital platforms).

Source

Also: Watch the Convention, on the offical DNC 2024 site.

Any other tips or queries, leave a message below!

Energized Dawn Open Thread: The Convention Party BeginsPost + Comments (140)

Interesting Read: As Democrats gather in Chicago, the spirit of ’68 is a painful memory

by Anne Laurie|  August 18, 20249:10 pm| 156 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Activism, Excellent Links, Open Threads

As Democrats gather in Chicago, the spirit of ’68 is a painful memory https://t.co/nWeR7dumUF

— Post Politics (@postpolitics) August 18, 2024

I was twelve in the summer of ’68, so my memories of the Chicago convention are spotty. But certainly even a lot of older / more attentive Democrats weren’t fully aware of some of the backstage maneuvers Joel Achenbach discusses here [gift link]:

… The return to Chicago this week comes amid echoes of 1968. The party has once again had to find its footing when the sitting president made a stunning decision to not seek reelection. Thousands of protesters are expected to march outside the convention and law enforcement is prepared for the possibility of violent disruptions. Cultural and generational divides in the party are pronounced. And there has been gunfire on the campaign trail, a jangling reminder that an election year can be turned upside down at the speed of an assassin’s bullet.

And yet despite those echoes, the Democrats are gliding into Chicago with little or no resemblance to the polarized and grieving party of 1968.

Unlike in 1968, the Democratic ticket is settled. The poll numbers are rising. The party activists are euphoric, with enthusiastic crowds greeting Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on the campaign trail.

And, unlike in 1968, there’s just not much left to decide in Chicago. When President Joe Biden stepped aside, some party leaders and pundits advocated for a protracted nomination contest culminating at the convention. With stunning speed that idea evaporated. In just days, Harris became the consensus choice and is already officially the nominee.

“Democrats have already done the main thing that was necessary to avoid the chaos of 1968: They’ve unified in advance,” said David Farber, a historian at the University of Kansas…

For America, 1968 was the bloodiest year of the Vietnam War. The war split the Democratic Party. Sen. Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota, an antiwar candidate, ran a stunningly close second to President Lyndon B. Johnson in the New Hampshire primary. Sen. Robert F. Kennedy of New York announced his opposition to Johnson’s war policies and jumped into the race. Johnson, painfully aware that he was bleeding party support, shocked the nation on March 31 with a televised announcement that he would not seek reelection…

By that point Humphrey had entered the race. But Humphrey did not compete in any primaries, which in those days were few in number. Party bosses and governors controlled most of the convention delegates. Humphrey went to Chicago with what appeared to be enough pledged delegates to get the nomination.

But it wasn’t a done deal. The situation invited plenty of backroom negotiations and Hail Mary schemes by Democrats opposed to Humphrey. McCarthy had hundreds of delegates from the primaries. Sen. George McGovern of South Dakota, also a war opponent, had entered the contest just two weeks before the convention. Some party leaders hoped to lure Sen. Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts, still shattered by the assassination of his brother, into the race…

There was even some possibility that Johnson himself — nursing his political wounds at his Texas ranch — might storm into Chicago to reclaim what he felt was rightfully his. Chicago Mayor Richard J. Daley hoped to lure him back into the race.
..

show full post on front page

This summer, a coalition of 200 organizations is planning protests and marches in Chicago during the convention. Thousands of pro-Palestinian protesters are expected to demonstrate against the Biden administration’s support for Israel.

The number of protesters this year could be greater than in 1968, when many antiwar protesters chose to stay home amid signs that Chicago could become a bloodbath. Protest organizers had predicted 100,000 people, maybe even 300,000, would descend on Chicago. The actual number was closer to 15,000…

A strike by city electrical workers greatly limited what networks could televise live from the streets of Chicago. The live reports from inside the hall were interspersed with delayed footage showing police beating protesters and, later, journalists and bystanders. An official investigation later described the events as a “police riot.”

“The whole world is watching!” protesters chanted…

Historically, Democrats were known for disputatious conventions. They were the scruffier of the two major political parties. They had a broader, more diverse coalition, one that ranged from conservative Southerners to Northeastern liberals to blue-collar union members. As the party has grown more ideologically uniform, and its leaders more determined to project unity, the Democratic conventions have become less cantankerous.

“They began to take on the appearance, dare I say, of Republican conventions. Abided by their timetables. Very little strife on the floor,” said Wilkie, the journalist.

“There’s no such thing as a rowdy convention or one that’s much fun to cover anymore,” Wilkie said…

This is not the first time the Democrats have returned to Chicago for their convention. They did so in 1996, and exorcised a lot of the demons of ’68 as they held a lovefest for the incumbents, President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore.

The country was at peace, and the polls for Democrats were blissful. The party partied. After 28 years, Chicago ’68 looked like a terrible but fleeting phase the party had endured…

Here’s hoping for a feel-good 1996 remix…

Interesting Read: <em>As Democrats gather in Chicago, the spirit of ’68 is a painful memory </em>Post + Comments (156)

War for Ukraine Day 907: More on the Kursk Offensive

by Adam L Silverman|  August 18, 20247:54 pm| 69 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A quick housekeeping note. Rosie is still doing great. Amazingly we had low humidity today, so we went for her first walk since she was diagnosed. She did very well. Her next treatment, which is the last one of round three, is tomorrow. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Fifth Russian missile attack with North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles over the last half month. KN-23s were launched at the Kyiv region on the night of 18th of August 2024. https://t.co/bEduYw2aUh https://t.co/OPL7O1vnMz pic.twitter.com/nMqhIFoP7o

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 18, 2024

Drones‼️
New sound, unusual.
Time to hide in the bathroom.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) August 18, 2024

Today in Kharkiv, we had seven air raid alerts, totaling nearly nine hours. As the day ends, the final alert is still ongoing. pic.twitter.com/1MvZSu8XWH

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) August 18, 2024

Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

There Are No Vacations in War; Timely Logistics for the Announced Aid Packages Is Needed – Address by the President

18 August 2024 – 21:49

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Here is a brief update on today.

The front lines – first and foremost, Toretsk and Pokrovsk.

In just one day, there have been dozens of attacks, but our units, our brigades, are doing everything to hold the positions. I thank everyone who is making this possible.

Today, we achieved good and much-needed results in destroying Russian equipment near Toretsk. And all this is more than just defense for Ukraine; it is now our primary task in defensive operations overall: to destroy as much Russian war potential as possible and conduct maximum counteroffensive actions. This includes creating a buffer zone on the aggressor’s territory – our operation in the Kursk region.

Everything that inflicts losses on the Russian army, Russian state, their military-industrial complex, and their economy helps prevent the war from expanding and brings us closer to a just end to this aggression – a just peace for Ukraine.

I am grateful to everyone fighting for our state, everyone helping in defense, and everyone working for Ukraine so that we can achieve our goals as quickly as possible.

Today, I especially want to recognize our 100th separate mechanized brigade in the Toretsk direction. Thank you, warriors! Thank you for your strength. The 47th and 110th separate mechanized brigades – the Pokrovsk direction – your resilience, warriors, matters for all of Ukraine. Also, the Kurakhove direction – our paratroopers of the 79th brigade – thank you! The Lyman direction – the warriors of the 66th and 67th separate mechanized brigades. The Kharkiv region – the 42nd separate mechanized brigade – thank you! The Prydniprovsky direction – our marines of the 35th brigade – well done!

I just received a report from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi regarding the situation in the east of Ukraine, the operation in the Kursk region, the “exchange fund,” and the provision of our brigades – our reserves – with ammunition and weapons. Our guys are doing great on all fronts. However, there is a need for faster delivery of supplies from our partners. We strongly ask for this. There are no vacations in war. Decisions are needed, as is timely logistics for the announced aid packages. I especially address this to the United States, the United Kingdom, and France.

One more thing. Important weeks of diplomatic work with various partners lie ahead. Europe, America, the Global South. We have already expanded, and will continue to expand, the circle of those who support a just end to this war. And it is crucial for Ukraine to enter this autumn even stronger than we were before.

Glory to Ukraine!

The reason:

What do our warriors dream about in trenches?
These dreams are simple yet profound, underscoring the importance of cherishing life’s simplest things.

📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/gepaLFsfvL

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 18, 2024

The Kursk offensive:

Ukrainian troops and local civilians in Russia’s Sudzha pic.twitter.com/Nv5LPnseIo

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 17, 2024

Russians abandon their elderly during the evacuation from the Kursk Region. Ukrainians found a paralyzed grandmother and helped her. pic.twitter.com/rMC6gphKx8

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) August 18, 2024

A Ukrainian official told WSJ that Ukraine has captured 2,000 Russian POWs in Kursk Oblast. A few days ago, FT reported that Ukrainian officials and soldiers said “hundreds.”https://t.co/MuXTIeDEZ1 https://t.co/Lo5z6Hgf9A pic.twitter.com/WDCk2BMlkX

— John Hardie (@JohnH105) August 18, 2024

From The Wall Street Journal: (emphasis mine)

PYSARIVKA, Ukraine—Six days after Ukrainian forces swept through the Russian border town of Sudzha in a lightning advance, a Ukrainian platoon carrying out a mopping-up operation stumbled upon a dozen Russian soldiers hiding in a butter factory.

The platoon leader, who goes by the call sign Yanyk, said his demand for the Russians to surrender was met by salvos of automatic-rifle fire. “So we eliminated them,” he said.

The speed and scale of this month’s Ukrainian advance—the first time a foreign military force has occupied Russian soil since World War II—left pockets of surprised and disoriented Russian soldiers trapped behind enemy lines.

In all, Ukraine has taken 2,000 prisoners, according to a Ukrainian official, and seized about the same amount of territory that Russia, in grinding, high-casualty offensives, has taken from Ukraine since the start of the year.

Ukraine’s opportunistic assault has energized a nation battered by 2 1/2 years of war. It has also sent a message to Kyiv’s backers that the nation is still in the fight and can successfully mount complex and innovative offensive operations.

For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Ukrainian thrust is an extraordinary reversal just as the weight of Russia’s massive war machine was beginning to wear down Ukraine’s defenses along the country’s eastern front.

Putin has vowed to drive Ukrainian troops out, but his forces have yet to mount a coherent counterattack and have had to pull units from Ukraine to respond. To dislodge the Ukrainians, Russia will likely have to send even more troops and pulverize its own towns and villages with artillery barrages, as it has done across a swath of Ukraine.

The challenge for Ukraine is how to capitalize on its early successes. Ukraine has committed thousands of troops. Sending in more could divert resources desperately needed to hold the Russians back on the main front line in eastern Ukraine. Russia is still advancing there against Ukrainian forces short on manpower and equipment.

To take full advantage, Ukraine would need a level of backing that the U.S. and some of its allies until now haven’t been willing to provide.

The Biden administration, which has said it didn’t know about the Ukrainian attack before it was launched, has barred Ukraine from using U.S.-provided longer-range missiles called ATACMS to strike Russian territory.

Washington isn’t sharing intelligence with Ukraine on targets inside Russia, said a senior U.S. official, who added that the Biden administration doesn’t want to be seen as enabling an attack into Russian territory.

The Ukrainians have used U.S.-supplied Bradley and Stryker armored vehicles inside Russia, taking advantage of the expanded latitude that the White House granted Ukraine to respond to Russia’s Kharkiv offensive in May.

This account of the Kursk incursion is drawn from interviews with dozens of Ukrainian soldiers involved, U.S. and allied officials and a person familiar with the operation, as well as videos verified by The Wall Street Journal and reports by Russian military bloggers.

Ukraine is trying to cut off more Russian towns and make it difficult for Russian reinforcements to reach the front line by striking rail hubs and bridges. A bridge in the Glushkovo district, west of Sudzha, was destroyed Friday in a Ukrainian missile strike. Russia, meanwhile, said it had taken out two Himars systems in the Sumy region.

Nine days into the incursion, Ukraine appeared to have lost dozens of armored vehicles, according to counts by analysts who verify videos posted online. The human losses are unclear, but a spotter in the 44th Brigade crew said they were much lower than in last year’s counteroffensive, which he took part in.
Western military estimates suggest Ukraine has committed as many as 6,000 soldiers to Kursk and has up to 4,000 additional troops in support roles in the Sumy region.

To avoid weakening the front line, a substantial number of the troops came from a reserve force Ukraine had been building with Western encouragement for operations later this year and in 2025, according to the person familiar with the operation.

The Ukrainians are aware of that risk and are balancing so far, the person said.

Russia has pulled several understrength brigades from Ukraine in response, totaling up to 5,000 troops as of the middle of this past week, the person said. One brigade was from the Donetsk region, the focus of Russia’s current offensives, but others were from less essential areas.

Still, Russia might have to pull more troops out of Ukraine if it wants to take the territory back, which would require a larger force than the Ukrainians and would probably need to number more than 20,000 properly trained personnel, the person said.

In Moscow, Putin has held televised meetings with top defense and security officials in which he has ordered the Ukrainians expelled from Russia.

Satellite imagery, meanwhile, shows that Russia is hastily digging antitank ditches and other fortifications more than 30 miles from the border.

Much more at the link.

I’ve seen two suggestions about the US role. One is about internal components of Storm Shadow / SCALP. https://t.co/Gu9By2FWua

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) August 18, 2024

The idea that Storm Shadow requires (or at least has been relying on) US data/intel support for complex strikes, and that this support isn’t forthcoming for strikes inside Russia, is also bolstered by this account: https://t.co/1DsGJqkuz1

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) August 18, 2024

https://t.co/Gu9By2FoEC

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) August 18, 2024

From The Telegraph:

Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Britain of “slowing down” its support for Ukraine as he renewed his appeal for restrictions to be lifted on Kyiv’s use of Western weapons.

The Ukrainian president is pushing Britain, France and the US to allow the use of Storm Shadow missiles, which were given to Kyiv by the UK last year, for strikes deep inside Russian territory.

On Saturday, he complained that British support for his war effort had slowed down, after Sir Keir Starmer upheld a ban, initially imposed by the Conservatives, on the missiles being used to strike Russia.

“Unfortunately, the situation has slowed down recently,” he said.

“We will discuss how to fix this because long-range capabilities are vital for us. The whole world sees how effective Ukrainians are – how our entire nation defends its independence.”

Mr Zelensky said that it was “crucial” for Ukraine’s allies to “remove barriers that hinder us from weakening Russian positions.

“Long-range capabilities are the answer to the most critical strategic questions of this war,” he added.

Ukraine has made territorial gains in its Kursk offensive – the first foreign invasion of Russian territory since the Second World War.

However, the offensive has concerned some Western allies, who believe attacking Russian territory could escalate the war and prompt a retaliation by Vladimir Putin against both Ukraine and its Nato backers.

The ability to use Storm Shadow missiles, which can strike underground targets and evade radar detection, would be a major boon for Kyiv but require authorisation from the UK, US and France to be used outside Ukraine.

At the Nato summit in Washington DC last month, Sir Keir suggested he would give consent for the missiles to be used in Russia, prompting celebration and thanks from Mr Zelensky.

However, government officials later clarified that the position had not changed, and Storm Shadows could only be used against Russian targets that had already crossed the Ukrainian border.

Defence sources told The Telegraph that the US has veto power over the missiles being used in Russia, because Washington controls a “key enabling requirement” of the weapons.

The French government also has the power to block the use of Storm Shadows, because they were developed jointly between the UK and France.

John Healey, the Defence Secretary, has described Labour’s support for Ukraine as “iron clad”.

“We should be proud that British-donated equipment, in the hands of brave Ukrainians on the front line, is helping them to defend their country and push back Putin,” he told The Sunday Express.

Sir Keir has asked his National Security Council to draw up plans for how Britain can increase its support for Ukraine, The Times reported.

But Conservative leaders urged the Government to immediately allow Kyiv to use the Storm Shadow missiles.

Sir Ben Wallace, the former Conservative defence secretary, told The Telegraph:

“Time and time again those that want to do nothing have used the ‘escalation’ excuse. They used it before the conflict, they used it when we supplied short-range anti tank missiles, they used it when we supplied tanks.

“The reality is it is the appeasers that use this language and all the while Ukrainians suffer. Storm Shadows have been making a real difference in Crimea, which Russia already believes to be sovereign Russian territory without escalation.

“The sooner Germany gifts Taurus missiles and we give permission the better.”

More at the link.

For want of a nail!!!!

The US administration reportedly says that it’s not sharing any intel on the Kursk region with Ukraine to avoid being considered supportive of the Ukrainian offensive operation inside Russia.

I have a question: Aaaaaaaand?

What exactly is going to happen if the supposed leading…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 18, 2024

The US administration reportedly says that it’s not sharing any intel on the Kursk region with Ukraine to avoid being considered supportive of the Ukrainian offensive operation inside Russia.

I have a question: Aaaaaaaand?

What exactly is going to happen if the supposed leading power of the free world is viewed as supporting Ukrainians in their military operation against a dominating aggressor that is devastating and occupying their country?

How is that going to change the moral side of the story and its practical implications?

What exactly would Russia do out of what it has not done yet over the last ten years of war on Ukraine if it suddenly gets such a smoking gun?

Would it send a crushing armored horde towards the English Channel when it beats its head against the wall for Donbas towns and villages for two and a half years and is hastily crumbling young conscripts to at least try and somewhat hold off a Ukrainian cross-border breakthrough?

Since when did the Kremlin ever need a formal reason to accuse the U.S./NATO/the UK/France/Poland/etc of being “a direct party in the war?” and yell about “nuclear escalation” — again?

In its daily war propaganda, Russia has been “at an existential war with NATO” for years, with French/Polish/American/German soldiers and generals present literally anywhere you want in large numbers, and it absolutely doesn’t need it to be true.

What exactly would Russia do out of what it has not done yet and is not doing now anyway as the US administration still tries not to hurt Putin’s feelings?

Bombing Ukraine’s critical civilian infrastructure? Mass murders? Erasing entire regions into dust? Acts of sabotage, assassinations, espionage, taking hostages, election interference, the industrial-scale bribing of fringe political movements, pundits, and pseudo-experts around the West?

I really wanna know.

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“Evidence of an intensifying [Russian] response inside Kursk is now clear. Ukrainian soldiers on the ground inside Russia say they are already beginning to see a different level of resistance. Losses are increasing” https://t.co/2coO2SOvcM

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) August 18, 2024

From The Economist: (emphasis mine)

The order to move crackled over the radios at dawn on August 6th. Serhiy, a private in the 80th brigade, was among the first to emerge from the cover of the forest. By the time his unit crossed into Russia, supported by constant tank fire, the border had already been largely destroyed. “Our commanders didn’t spare a single round of artillery,” he says via voice messages from inside Russia’s Kursk region. Other Ukrainian troops report crossing the border on a wave of euphoria, with lines of prisoners almost immediately heading back in the other direction.

To assess Ukraine’s shock raid and its prospects The Economist has interviewed soldiers involved and sources familiar with decision-making by General Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief. A picture emerges of a daring gamble born of desperation and in great secrecy. It has boosted morale and shown that Ukraine has developed effective new tactics. But 12 days in, progress has slowed and the outlines of a new front line are emerging. It is unclear whether troops can dig in or are overcommitted at the cost of front lines elsewhere. The biggest danger is around Pokrovsk, in the Donbas inside Ukraine where Kremlin forces are gaining ground fast.

Soldiers from the 82nd brigade, the second of four involved in the opening assault, say fighting has grown increasingly intense after the initial euphoric gains. In the early exchanges there had been only one serious fight, when Russians tried to ambush them from maize fields near the first village. The Ukrainians, who somehow had a monopoly of reconnaissance drones in the sky, saw the enemy and ordered them to surrender. They didn’t. So they fired everything they had until the maize stopped rustling, and silence fell. Then the Ukrainians moved on.

A low profile, and clever tactics—such as using so-called fpv drones to provide air cover—allowed the Ukrainians to sweep through the Russian countryside. They were pursued by Russian helicopters and glide bombs, which often fell on Russian villages below, but on the ground they faced little serious resistance. The 82nd brigade pushed eastwards, in the direction of the village of Bolshoye Soldatskoye, while the 80th headed west to Malaya Loknya. Small units probed for vulnerabilities before heavier armour was committed. It was a “manoeuvre attack”, akin to the tactics used by Russia’s commander, Valery Gerasimov, says a source in Ukraine’s general staff. For the first five days, it was devastatingly effective.

The plan to invade part of Russia did not come from a happy place. In early July, General Syrsky, Ukraine’s newly appointed top commander, was under pressure. He was grappling with a less-than-ideal inheritance from his predecessor, Valery Zaluzhny, and the army’s leadership was at odds with the president over mobilisation policies, leading to significant manpower shortages. In America Congress was delaying support. Avdiivka, a stronghold north of Donetsk, was about to fall. Front lines in the Donetsk region were crumbling, most especially around the logistical hub of Pokrovsk. Rumours circulated that General Syrsky was on the verge of being dismissed, with attack dogs associated with Andriy Yermak, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s all-powerful chief of staff, even suggesting he had been “lying” to his bosses.

Amid the turmoil, the commander began his planning. “Syrsky isn’t good at political games,” says a source close to the general. “What he is good at is war.” Several scenarios were considered for an offensive push at the weakest points in the Russian line: a strike in Bryansk region in the north; a strike in Kursk region; a combination of the two; or more. The main objective was to draw troops away from the Donbas stranglehold, and to create bargaining chips for any future negotiation. General Syrsky kept his plans under wraps, sharing them only with a tight group of generals and security officials. He spoke to the president on a one-on-one basis, without his staff. The army’s intelligence did much of the reconnaissance, rather than leaving it to hur, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, which was included only at a late stage.

Western allies were also deliberately left in the dark, claims the source. “Syrsky had two previous operations undermined by the West. One was leaked to the Russians, and on another occasion, we were instructed to abort.” Limiting communication to a need-to-know basis enabled the Ukrainians to launch their attack before the Russians grasped what was happening. “They realised something was afoot but likely assumed we would need American approval for such a daring operation.” Having been presented with a fait accompli the West did not object.

General Syrsky is a pedant for detail. Yet while the first phase was planned meticulously the campaign is now developing in an ad hoc fashion. With the element of surprise lost, the Ukrainian advances have slowed. President Zelensky is still pushing for maximum progress, a source in the general staff says. But his top soldier is cautious, concentrating on expanding the flanks along the border to create more defensible lines. “Syrsky is no fool,” his confidante says. “He knows that rushing ahead risks the whole operation.” In recent days, an expanded Ukrainian contingent of 10,000-20,000 soldiers appears to be focused on establishing control on the southern bank of the Seim river to the north-west of Sudzha. On August 16th, Ukrainian missiles destroyed a bridge over the river at Glushkovo. And on August 18th Ukraine’s air force said that it had blown up a second bridge over the Seim.

General Syrsky’s great gamble has offered Ukrainians hope after a year of consistently grim news. It has also given him renewed authority. But the long-term success or otherwise of the operation will depend largely on how Russia responds. It appears to be pursuing a twin approach of responding more aggressively to the incursion while also sustaining pressure inside Ukraine along the line in the Donbas. The Kremlin’s goal will be to turn Kursk into little more than an embarrassing mosquito bite amid a bloodbath inside Ukraine.

The scene is thus set for a dramatic moment in the war: Ukraine wants to sustain its attack inside Russia and disrupt the contours of the frontline, changing the defeatist narrative about a frozen conflict to which negotiation is the only answer. Russia wants to crush the incursion and exploit the resulting depletion of Ukraine’s resources by pressing home its assault elsewhere, in Pokrovsk. The Ukrainian troops inside Russia are more vulnerable but still defiant. “The bastards have figured out how to fight and they understand our tactics,” says Private Serhiy in the 80th. “But that doesn’t mean we don’t understand their tactics—or that we won’t continue to take them down.”

Video of the Ukrainian airstrike that caused the damage seen below to the bridge across the Seym River near Zvannoe, Kursk Oblast. https://t.co/oLq5gcfBM0 https://t.co/3fFXcLu18X pic.twitter.com/WoOT1859DA

— John Hardie (@JohnH105) August 18, 2024

Omg, North Korea has condemned a Ukrainian offensive in Russia’s Kursk region, how are we gonna live with that now

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 18, 2024

According to DeepState Snagost, Kursk region, is now also under Ukrainian control https://t.co/DR5r9Vky8y https://t.co/PQqVBmEFVy pic.twitter.com/8h8tj6aLss

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 18, 2024

A video reportedly showing Defenders of the 501st Separate Marine Infantry Battalion dropping a Russian flag on the ground in Kursk region of Russia has appeared online.

It is reported that another settlement has been liberated – the village of Apanasovka in the Korenevsky… pic.twitter.com/ncqVIlihXS

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 18, 2024

A video reportedly showing Defenders of the 501st Separate Marine Infantry Battalion dropping a Russian flag on the ground in Kursk region of Russia has appeared online.

It is reported that another settlement has been liberated – the village of Apanasovka in the Korenevsky district.

No official confirmation yet.

Kurahove:

Another massive russian attack repelled by the warriors from the 79th Air Assault Brigade in the Kurahove direction. pic.twitter.com/YvHAW3yutc

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 18, 2024

Sumy Oblast:

When was the last time you played in the yard like this? These kids, evacuated to dormitory in Sumy from border villages, have lived through constant Russian shelling since the war started. Now, they’re waiting to go back home, while their mothers hope for Ukrainian victory to… pic.twitter.com/KAk5k0wdnM

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 18, 2024

When was the last time you played in the yard like this? These kids, evacuated to dormitory in Sumy from border villages, have lived through constant Russian shelling since the war started. Now, they’re waiting to go back home, while their mothers hope for Ukrainian victory to keep their homes safe.

Izyum:

Izyum ❤️ pic.twitter.com/ZoRxjyRckk

— HUGS Helping Ukraine Grassroots Support 🍁🇨🇦🇺🇦 (@HugsUkraine) August 15, 2024

Kharkiv:

What I love about Kharkiv is that even now, with the constant threat of bombings, when evening comes and brings relief after a hot summer day, people still go out, walk, eat, laugh, and bring our city to life.
Despite everything. pic.twitter.com/dTbSsxqaGw

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) August 18, 2024

Protelarsk, Rostov Oblast, Russia:

Meanwhile, an oil depot in Russia’s Proletarsk, Rostov region pic.twitter.com/adBFieMSWl

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 18, 2024

Russian oil depot in Proletarsk, Rostov region, was targeted by drones tonight. 360km from the frontline. pic.twitter.com/UZyRIYaWAK

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 18, 2024

/3. Russian oil storage facility in Proletarsk, Rostov region, continues to burn. Three fire trains have already been called in to help put out the fire. pic.twitter.com/PivK4scw5j

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 18, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron.

First, some adjacent material from the Ukrainian MOD:

A furry friend is a vital part of every military unit.

📷: 117th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/BcqbHeDyro

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 18, 2024

And a new vacation video montage!

@patron__dsns

Довгоочікуваний влог з Карпат! З вас лайк, якщо чекаєте наступний випуск🌝 #песпатрон

♬ оригінальний звук – Patron_official

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

The long-awaited vlog from the Carpathians! Please like if you are waiting for the next episode 🌝 #песпатрон

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 907: More on the Kursk OffensivePost + Comments (69)

NYC Meetup? (and Open Thread)

by WaterGirl|  August 18, 20246:30 pm| 27 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

This was supposed to go up on Thursday night, so for maximum coverage I will post this now and then re-up it for the evening crowd.  (Sorry, NotMax)

NotMax will be in NYC for a couple of weeks and he is putting out feelers about a NYC meet-up.  Guessing that he is visiting his Mom, but he’ll still have time for Balloon Juice peps, if anyone is interested.

Will be visiting the area 8/22 – 9/8. Past experience is that people prefer the weekends. Looking at the calendar, Labor Day weekend seems a good choice.

Friday (evening) 8/30 or any time Saturday 8/31 or Sunday 9/1 or Monday 9/2.  Please do chime in with preferences.

So far as venue, open to any and all suggestions. Initially thinking of eitherPershing Square cafe (steps away from Grand Central Terminal at Park and 42nd) or a more funky spot, Washington Square Diner (easy access by subway, massive menu but no cocktails, beer or wine only).

Update: Failed to mention the possibility of Tir Na Nog (31st and 8th, across from Penn Station), where we’ve met up previously.

Open thread.

 

NYC Meetup? (and Open Thread)Post + Comments (27)

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