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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

Find someone who loves you the way trump and maga love traitors.

The snowflake in chief appeared visibly frustrated when questioned by a reporter about egg prices.

Well, whatever it is, it’s better than being a Republican.

I really should read my own blog.

“They all knew.”

Lick the third rail, it tastes like chocolate!

If you don’t believe freedom is for everybody, then the thing you love isn’t freedom, it is privilege.

You are either for trump or for democracy. Pick one.

The worst democrat is better than the best republican.

Today’s gop: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

Books are my comfort food!

You’re just a puppy masquerading as an old coot.

There are times when telling just part of the truth is effectively a lie.

We still have time to mess this up!

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

“In this country American means white. everybody else has to hyphenate.”

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

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Open Threads

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Clearing Dawn Open Thread: Too Late to Turn Back Now

by Anne Laurie|  July 8, 20243:10 am| 173 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat

All these “this has to be the nail in the coffin for Biden” tweets seem to posit that Biden cannot simply tell them to go fuck themselves and there’s nothing they can do about it. https://t.co/0z1V1mwQF4

— Thomas (@tcstephenson818) July 7, 2024

Before he nearly died of an autoimmune disease, Dana Houle ran Democratic campaigns for a living. I’ve been holding onto this thread to see how things shook out over the weekend, and it’s become abundantly clear that you can’t set up a whole circus overnight based around a few professional clowns and a plethora of would-be ringmasters…

This tweet (starting a thread) got over 1.1m views. Not one person said it was wrong. (A few ppl disagreed but cited examples that don’t pertain to our current situation.)

It’s Biden or maybe Harris, nobody else https://t.co/iGZ6jPrTbT https://t.co/JQkLuK3nq6

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) July 7, 2024

2/It’s possible I’m missing something, but I don’t think so. Here’s why the Democrats can nominate Joe Biden, or possibly Kamala Harris, but nobody else.

There’s only one candidate with a 2024 presidential campaign committee registered with the Federal Election Commission.

3/Some of the “stuff” of the Biden campaign can probably be transferred to the DNC (and maybe state parties), but most of it can’t. Another candidate can’t just take over Biden’s campaign.

So, think about it.

A new nominee would not have a campaign. Like, not a tax ID…

4/Not a bank account, not a website or address. There would be nothing. They would start out largely paralyzed for weeks.

First and most obviously, there would be no staff. And there would be no HR process for hiring staff, no payroll process. So a new campaign trying to…

5/…rapidly expand would have to focus on staffing. They could probably hire people from the Biden campaign, but not all would want to work for the new candidate.

Among the first people needed would be compliance and legal staff, because a new campaign would be immediately…

6/…challenged on ballot access and all kinds of other stuff. Compliance would be needed to deal with the massive influx of immediate cash and to be sure everything meets FEC rules.

But to get cash they’d need banking/accounting as well. So that needs to be set up…

7/And since most of the money would come in online, they’d need to immediately set up a web operation robust enough to handle to load, and secure enough to handle the obvious cyberattacks that would happen. So they’d need contracts for servers, support staff, etc…

8/This new campaign would also be immediately inundated with calls and emails from press, potential volunteers and donors, other campaigns/party orgs, orgs inviting the candidate to events, etc.. So they would immediately need staff for press, scheduling, political, etc

9/Some of these people could probably slide over from the DNC or state parties. But that leaves holes at the DNC and state parties.

But let’s say they could immediately staff up. Where does everyone work? Office leases prob can’t be automatically transferred to the…

10/…new campaign, so all of those would need to be renegotiated, and some may not be available to the new campaign. They’d also have to deal with utilities.

Then, how does everyone communicate? As we know from 2016, security breeches can be fatal. So it’s not something…

11/…that can be tossed together in a day or so.

show full post on front page

But let’s say all the staff and infrastructure can be conjured from the ether. What about the data? Some could probably be transferred, but some of the lists would probably need to be purchased at fair market value from…

12/…Biden/Harris 2024. The new campaign would be starting out with no email lists, no volunteer lists, no fundraising lists, etc.

They’d also be starting with no contracts with vendors. All those contracts would have to be negotiated (think of the staff time needed to do…

13/…all of that at once). Some vendors wouldn’t sign with the new campaign, so they would need to be replaced.

There’s also the issue of advertising. The Biden campaign has already reserved tens of millions of dollars of TV ad time from the last few weeks of the campaign…

14/…when the inventory is low and what’s left is expensive. The new campaign probably wouldn’t be able to get the same volume, or get it at the same price. There would be similar problems with digital, with mail houses, etc.

Then there’s voter/targeting data. A lot of that…

15/…is probably used through the DNC. But what about the plans on how to use it? Analytics/targeting would need to be recalibrated for the new candidate, who would not have the same traits/strengths & weaknesses, etc as Biden/Harris.

As for money, well, there are a lot of…

16/…challenges there as well. A new candidate who hadn’t recently run for President (which, since Dean Phillips doesn’t count, is anyone) wouldn’t have much of a finance committee. They’d have no events scheduled/booked. And they wouldn’t have any fundraising agreements…

17/…with other campaigns, state parties, etc.

But let’s say all of that is in place. What’s the plan? The new candidate would start without a campaign plan or budget. They’d have done no polling. No data work. No research. No policy.

Then they’d have to vet and choose a VP.

18/So, even if we live in a fantasy world where there would be no issues with ballot access/state laws, DNC delegate/nomination rules, the political chaos of Biden not running and the first woman & African/Asian-American VP being passed over, the new candidate being untested…

19/…in a primary season and thrown in to the craziest campaign in modern US history, the ceding of the advantages of incumbency, the fact that they’d unexpectedly have to effectively abandon their day job…in the fantasy world where none of those problems would exist…

20/…it would still be impossible–if I’m correct that the Biden campaign is not transferrable to anyone but Harris (and even that would be challenged–it would still be impossible for Democrats to replace Joe Biden unless they tried to win without a campaign.

Now, some may…

21/…point out that Trump didn’t have much of a campaign in 2016. That’s true. But by July he had all of the legal/financial arrangements needed to have a campaign. He had a lot of the physical infrastructure. The RNC wasn’t in chaos the way the DNC would be if Biden…

22/…is replaced. Plus, even before he ran for President he had nearly complete name recognition. And despite the help of the Russians and James Comey, he lost the popular vote. So Trump’s campaign doesn’t show campaign apparatus doesn’t matter.

23/So what does all of this mean?

It means unless he quits that Joe Biden is the nominee, and that if it’s not him, anyone other than Kamala Harris would be starting from nothing & be completely overwhelmed & ineffective & would almost certainly lose.

24/It means talking about replacing Biden is a fantasy, bc it’s impossible, & continuing to talk about it like it’s a possibility is stupid & destructive & people who want to win should stop it, & everyone else should be shut down because they’re making shit up that’s not real

25/Correction: TV reservations would prob be OK bc they’re from the Biden/Harris-DNC joint committee.

But I may have understated the problems w state ballot access. It may be impossible to get anyone else’s name on some ballots except Harris (& I’m not even sure RE her)

And yet.https://t.co/4rL6Eae7TO

— David Mongan (@LawyerDave1) July 7, 2024

Meanwhile, Bill Kristol reverts to type…

Not very savvy, given that there may be no way to replace Biden except maybe with Kamala Harris. https://t.co/Z6bcb2b01q

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) July 8, 2024

Clearing Dawn Open Thread: Too Late to Turn Back NowPost + Comments (173)

War for Ukraine Day 865: All of Ukraine is Under Air Raid Alert & Russian Missiles Are Inbound!

by Adam L Silverman|  July 7, 20248:58 pm| 22 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Screen shot of new artwork by NEIVANMADE. The background is black. In the bottom foreground are grey Ukrainian homes and apartment buildings being bombarded by red Russian missiles with the Special Military Operation "Z" symbol on them. Above the missiles, written in red is the word "Ruzzians". Below the buildings being attacked is the statement "Turns Homes Into Graves".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Quick housekeeping note: Rosie is doing fine. Round 3 of chemo starts tomorrow. Rounds 3 and 4 are a treatment every other week rather than every week with two weeks off in between. Thank you all, again, for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

As I start tonight’s update – 8:01 PM EDT – all of Ukraine is under air raid alert and Russian attack aircraft are in the air in western Russia to launch cruise missiles at Ukrainian targets. It is important to remember that the last time this happened, Russian cruise missiles entered Polish air space and Poland scrambled their own fighters.

Air raid alert map of Ukraine from 8:02 PM EDT on 7 July 2024. All of Ukraine is under air raid alert. The map indicates that Russian air force planes are airborne over western Russia launching attacks against Ukraine.

We will have to wait until later today in Ukraine, tomorrow in the US to know how bad the damage is.

As of 8:55 PM EDT, the air raid alerts are coming down and the cruise missile threat seems to be over for now.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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We Will Continue to Strengthen the Ukrainian Fleet Together with the United Kingdom and the Netherlands – There Are Promising New Details of Our Cooperation – Address by the President

7 July 2024 – 20:14

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, I am in Odesa – on Ukrainian Navy Day. This is a day of gratitude to all naval warriors and negotiations to ensure that the Defense Forces of Ukraine, the Ukrainian Navy, and our entire country gain even more capabilities. Today, here in Odesa, we were joined by the new Ministers of Defense and Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands, as well as the new Secretary of State for Defense of the United Kingdom. I informed them about the situation on the battlefield, and there was a report from Navy Commander Neizhpapa. We will continue to strengthen the Ukrainian fleet together with the United Kingdom and the Netherlands – there are promising new details of our cooperation. We also discussed strengthening air defense, which is our absolute priority, and I am grateful for the willingness to take the next steps – particularly regarding the F-16s.

Of course, we were honored to be here today. I had the honor of personally awarding our Navy servicemen, those who have particularly distinguished themselves. Among them are the Hero of Ukraine, Junior Sergeant Vladyslav Andrushchenko, as well as those who have been awarded the Crosses of Military Merit, the Orders of Bohdan Khmelnytsky, and the Orders “For Courage.” I awarded the Order of Princess Olga to Sergeant Iryna Bovshchyk, a combat medic of the 36th separate marine brigade. I am proud of each and every one who truly changes everything for our country – defending the state, opening new opportunities for Ukraine, fighting for Ukraine, working, and securing international support for our country. Each of our joint achievements – including the success in the Black Sea and the expulsion of the Russian fleet – is the result of many of our people who remained loyal to both the state and themselves. Glory to all of you! Today, I also paid a visit to our warriors who are undergoing treatment and rehabilitation after being wounded. I wished them a speedy recovery and thanked the doctors and nurses.

I also held a meeting regarding the situation in Odesa and the region. We discussed security, the operation of our transport arteries, energy and social issues.

And one more thing. I want to extend a special gratitude to our 110th separate mechanized brigade for shooting down another Russian combat aircraft in the Donetsk region – the twelfth in the past few months. Your accuracy is truly exemplary! Well done!

Glory to Ukraine!

The new British Defense Secretary was in Odesa today with President Zelenskyy.

Odesa. Together with the UK Secretary of State for Defence, we visited the hospital where sailors wounded in battles with Russian occupiers are being treated and spoke with these brave warriors.

I honored the defenders with state awards. I am grateful for their fight, service,… pic.twitter.com/58lTVka3vI

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) July 7, 2024

Odesa. Together with the UK Secretary of State for Defence, we visited the hospital where sailors wounded in battles with Russian occupiers are being treated and spoke with these brave warriors.

I honored the defenders with state awards. I am grateful for their fight, service, and defense of Ukraine.

I also extend my gratitude to the medical staff who treat our warriors and bring them back to life.

In Odessa today with @ZelenskyyUa I made clear that Britain’s commitment to stand with the Ukrainian people is steadfast.

We will step up UK support for Ukraine with a new military aid package and stand shoulder to shoulder with our Ukrainian friends for as long as it takes. https://t.co/soCr9Xg4Dr

— John Healey (@JohnHealey_MP) July 7, 2024

The UK’s new Defence Secretary, John Healey, announced that the UK would provide a new package of support to Ukraine during his official visit to Odesa.

List of promised equipment from the official UK government website: https://t.co/zdkHQQScLg pic.twitter.com/lw04OVbba4

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 7, 2024

France:

Quite the celebration as the French Left takes to the streets of Paris for a joyous chant of “No pasarán!”pic.twitter.com/yBR76IyuHe

— John Nichols (@NicholsUprising) July 7, 2024

Quite the celebration as the French Left takes to the streets of Paris for a joyous chant of “No pasarán!”pic.twitter.com/yBR76IyuHe

— John Nichols (@NicholsUprising) July 7, 2024

Mood in France tonight — a split screen of #TeamDemocracy/Left 🇫🇷 vs. the Far-right #TeamDemocracy
/MT🎩: @ianbremmer

pic.twitter.com/qVD6SI1KUB

— Kim (@kim) July 7, 2024

So, how are things with Le Pen and her splendid little plan to make France kneel before Putin, huh?

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 7, 2024

Macron’s gambit sort of paid off. Now he just has to figure out if he can make an agreement with the New Popular Front to make governing easier despite the differences between them and his centrist coalition.

France24 published an excellent article today that interviewed surviving members of the French partisan underground during World War II in regard to the current moment in France.

Eleven days ago, Franco-Austrian Mélanie Berger-Volle was filled with immense joy when she was selected by the Loire département, or district, in central France to carry the Olympic flame due to her participation in the Resistance during the Second World War.

The 102-year-old carried the flame in a retirement home in the city of Saint-Étienne, with a broad smile on her face. “I was very happy to show that an elderly person could carry the flame. It made me so happy”, she said.

But now, three days after the far-right National Rally party (RN) came out on top in the first round of legislative elections, the former résistante spoke with a heavy heart.

“I’m appalled that France, which has achieved so much, is turning to the far right,” she said, adding that “I’ve no choice but to speak my mind”.

‘I’ll vote for anyone, but not for them’

Born into a Jewish family in Vienna in 1921, Berger-Volle lived through one of the darkest periods in recent history.

In 1938, the then 17-year-old was forced to leave her country following the annexation of Austria by the German Reich.

“People forget that Hitler came to power legally”, Berger-Volle said.

After a brief stay in Belgium, Berger-Volle came to France where she joined the Resistance when Nazi Germany occupied the country.

Arrested in 1942 for distributing anti-Hitler leaflets to German soldiers, Berger-Volle was sent to the Saint-Michel prison in Toulouse, then to Marseille’s Baumettes Prison from where she managed to escape with help from comrades.

The young activist then continued working with the Resistance until France was liberated in 1945.

More than 80 years on, she is stunned by the rise of the far right in the country for which she fought against the Nazis.

“I’ll vote for anyone, but not for them,” Berger-Volle said, referring to the RN. “They are very intelligent. They say they’ve become like everyone else, but if you scratch the surface a bit, nothing has changed.”

In Toulon, when there was a far-right mayor, “the first thing he did was to attack [the city’s] culture, even though we can’t live without it,” Berger-Volle said.

She added that she would cast her ballot on Sunday despite her old age.

“Of course, I’ve always voted. I fought for it during the war”.

‘I don’t want us to be governed by former SS men’

On France’s west coast, Roger Lebranchu also had the honour of taking part in the Olympic torch relay on May 31, when it passed through Mont-Saint-Michel.

“I carried this symbol, which represents peace in the world and dignity between peoples. I never thought I’d do it one day”, he points out.

The former rowing champion, selected for the London Olympics in 1948, was chosen for his sporting achievements and his past as a member of the Resistance.

“I was arrested in 1943 because I wanted to reach North Africa via Spain”, Lebranchu said.

Aged merely 22, he was deported to the Buchenwald concentration camp and the nearby Schönebeck camp where he spent nearly two years. He escaped in April 1945 just before the Americans arrived.

After the liberation of France, Lebranchu took up rowing again and won the French championship, twice.

Now at 101 years of age, Lebranchu is worried about the future of his country.

“I was deported for acts of resistance, I don’t want us to be governed by former SS men”, he said, referring to founding members of the FN. Among them were Léon Gaultier and Pierre Bousquet, two Frenchmen who had joined the ranks of the Waffen-SS.

“When you’ve been through the hands of the SS like I have, you can expect anything,” the former Resistance fighter said, adding that he hopes that parties from “the centre will come together and stand shoulder by shoulder” against the far right.

‘Danger on our doorstep’

Meanwhile former Resistance fighter Jean Lafaurie takes a broader approach. For him, it is necessary for parties across all political divides to band together to prevent the National rally from taking power.

“We have to block this party, which is harmful to France,” he said. “When I hear people from the right or government representatives say that we can’t vote for the New Popular Front (a left-wing alliance)” because they object to certain candidates, “I say that blocking means blocking. We can discuss the details later”.

“We’re back to the same things that we’ve been through at the end of the 1930s. I think we’re in the same system,” said Lafaurie, who was shaken upon learning the election results from the first round of voting last Sunday.

“The danger is on our doorstep”, he said.

Lafaurie had already faced a very similar danger over eight decades ago.

At 20, he joined the communist resistance fighters, or FTPF (Francs-tireurs et partisans), in his home region of the Lot in southwest France.

In July 1943, he was arrested and sentenced to ten years hard labour.

Interned in the Eysses prison in Lot-et-Garonne, Lafaurie took part in a mutiny that ended in the execution of 12 prisoners and the deportation of more than 1,000 others to the Dachau concentration camp near Munich.

There, Lafaurie survived for almost a year as prisoner number 73 618 before he was liberated in April 1945, weighing just 36 kilos.

“The concentration camps were a bit like what the Nazis intended to do in the rest of the world. A world of slaves with the Nazis as the sole representatives of authority”, Lafaurie said.

Deeply marked by the experience, which is now “ingrained” in him, Lafaurie said he is dismayed to see that some people in France are suggesting trying the far right.

“We’ve been there!” Lafaurie said.

“They may have changed the way they talk to better deceive people, but the basis of the movement is still the same. Marine Le Pen has shown her ties with Putin. France is really in danger, but so is the whole of Europe at the moment”, he said.

For years, Lafaurie travelled the country to speak in schools, where he believes the history of the Second World War has not necessarily been properly passed on.

After 1945, “two generations wanted to forget the war and didn’t talk about it. We must try and reawaken this memory, but it’s not easy. We’re trying to sow small seeds with the idea that they’ll grow one day”.

‘We’re going to get through this’

96-year-old Daniel Huillier from Villard-de-Lans in the Isère department also recounts his story tirelessly to young people.

One of the last surviving resistance fighters from the Vercors Maquis, Huillier joined the Resistance at the age of 15, following in the footsteps of his father and several members of his family.

“During the war, I lost two uncles, cousins and friends aged 16 or 17”, Huillier said.

Last week, Huillier recalled fraternal values advocated by his former comrades in arms in an article published ahead of the first round of elections.

“In the Resistance, there were of course French people, but there were also many foreigners. There were 36 nationalities in our ranks”, he wrote.

Huillier, who took part a few weeks earlier in several ceremonies honouring the maquis of the Vercors, is saddened by the current situation.

“What’s happening is dramatic. We’re in trouble”, he said, adding that many French people “cast their ballots mindlessly because our leaders don’t know where they’re going”.

While Huillier believed he has “no instructions to give to people”, he regretted that those who vote for the far right “don’t think about the consequences”.

Nevertheless, Huillier, who narrowly escaped the German repression in the Vercors, remained optimistic.

“We mustn’t despair. We’re going to get through this. Unfortunately, things like this must happen for people to start thinking,” Huillier said.

These men and women, and their other surviving peers, are those who we should be listening to right now. I don’t think this applies to anyone here, but my advice to anyone who tells me they’re not going to vote is if that’s the case then you need to read everything you can about the French partisan underground in WW II, the Bielskys, and Bernard Fall’s Theories of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency. Fall was a member of the French partisan underground.

And we all need to be taking this to heart:

The leader of La France Nisiuses(LFI), one of the 5 parties in the New Popular Front, says “a magnificent surge of civic mobilization has taken hold!” and the French “people have clearly rejected the worst-case scenario.”

— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) July 7, 2024

Estonian Army Reserve Soldier Artur Rehi has posted an interesting assessment of Russian capabilities written by Finnish doctoral candidate Joni Askola.

1/8 One more miserable failure: the window of opportunity for russia to achieve anything on the front in 2024 is steadily narrowing. Analysis by @joni_askolaImage
2/8 russia had its prime opportunity in a long time, from October 2023 to the autumn of 2024, to make gains on the front, as Ukraine faced shortages in manpower, shells, and fortifications.Image
3/8 Despite its best efforts, russia miserably failed to achieve anything significant while Ukraine was at its weakest. Its only accomplishment was the capture of Avdiivka, at the expense of tens of thousands of casualties.Image
4/8 russia’s diversionary offensive north of Kharkiv did not achieve its objectives, but it compelled Ukraine’s allies to permit Ukraine to launch strikes into russian territory.Image
5/8 As russia squandered its opportunity, Ukraine has been mobilizing, fortifying, boosting production, targeting russian energy infrastructure, and ultimately receiving shells and equipment from its allies.Image
6/8 russia has yet to capture the small but important town of Chasiv Yar, and its time for launching a decisive offensive is running out. By the year’s end, Ukraine will have become too formidable for russia to achieve significant successes on the front.Image
7/8 For Ukraine to maintain its advantage in this war, the best approach is to refrain from large-scale offensives and concentrate primarily on defense. Ukraine’s success will not come from reclaiming territory, but from conveying to the russians that the war is unwinnable.Image
8/8 It may take years for the average russian to recognize in their imperialistic, revanchist, and materialistic mindset that the war is unwinnable and futile, but that realization will eventually occur. For that day to arrive sooner, Ukraine needs to defend itself.Image

The Economist recently did an accounting of Russian losses in Ukraine. It’s not good.

Sweet Jesus. @TheEconomist graphics put Russian losses in Ukraine since 2022 in appalling perspective — this is so much worse than every other Russian war since 1945, combined. /1 pic.twitter.com/Q4U58QorjI

— Sydney Freedberg (@SydneyFreedberg) July 7, 2024

And the carnage is only getting worse as Russia keeps throwing men into grinding offensives to take tiny slices of ground — this tracks deaths by week: /3 pic.twitter.com/d9BtZZrbjj

— Sydney Freedberg (@SydneyFreedberg) July 7, 2024

PS: To the folks saying “Mother Russia always throws her sons into the meat grinder, dictatorships can take it”: For every 1945 there’s a 1905 and a 1917. Russia is strong but also rigid, and no one knows her breaking point — including Putin since his own people lie to him. https://t.co/gEHVhcOR9B

— Sydney Freedberg (@SydneyFreedberg) July 7, 2024

And some additional analysis:

The numbers documented in the latest article of the Economist reporting on the Russian losses in Ukraine in the last two years are staggering. They have exceeded all losses the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation experienced from 1945 to 2022, combined. Somewhere between… pic.twitter.com/tXOgGrnKvl

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) July 7, 2024

The numbers documented in the latest article of the Economist reporting on the Russian losses in Ukraine in the last two years are staggering. They have exceeded all losses the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation experienced from 1945 to 2022, combined. Somewhere between 462,000 and 728,000 of Russian soldiers have been permanently eliminated, basically confirming the numbers Ukrainian forces have been reporting all along.

You can also see from that chart that the numbers of destroyed Russian militants has increased, significantly, over the past months, especially in connection with the failed Kharkiv incursion. It confirms what I was suspecting for a while. Russia is trying to brute-force a decision on the battlefield, respectively, is trying to project that it is making progress on the ground and lie to the public that Russia is winning the war. Though a few gains have been made on the ground, they all have been tiny. In some cases such as the Kharkiv incursion, they have been even partially reversed.

Strategically seen the Russian offensives have been all but a string of failures. The attrition rate of Russian human material and hardware is not sustainable on the long run. The situation of the Russian armor and the reserves have recently also been part of the debate. Depending on the analysts, Russian reserves of armor will last between 18 and 36 months, but it will end in a foreseeable future.

The Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian oil facilities and other high value targets in Russia might expedite Russia’s downfall. It is a thorn in Russia’s side, which many still don’t take notice of enough.

Summarizing the paragraphs above, it appears that the Kremlin considers this year to be the make-or-break period. The Russian reserves are not enough to sustain a prolonged war, beyond the next 2 or 3 years. It is coming to on end, one way or another, so more than ever Russian cannon fodder has to be thrown into the fire. Putin needs to convince or more specifically bluff that Russia is winning, now more than ever, but numbers are not lying and Russia is failing by virtually every metric.

This is why Russians are investing so much to install their puppets in Western leadership positions and hope that they stop the war for them. This concerted effort by Russia will accelerate in the coming months. If Russians fail in doing so or their puppets do not turn out being this good, especially after realizing that long-term precautions have been taken to mitigate those risks, it will have a dramatic impact on the Russian war effort.

Europe and especially Germany are holding the keys for Russia’s end. It is up to their determination to steer into the right direction, even without the US. The economic capacities are available even today.

1/ Adding another perspective to The Economist’s recent reporting on Russian casualties in Ukraine (see thread below), the Russian milblogger ‘Vault 8’ comments that almost everyone he knows who fought in Ukraine has been killed or wounded.https://t.co/psHJaewWo9

— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) July 7, 2024

3/ – 6 died, including an old friend (by Special Military Operation standards).
– 5 were wounded, 3 of them seriously, and did not return.
– 2 are on the verge of losing their health. One has a mental condition, the other has a back problem, nerve compression in the lower back.

— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) July 7, 2024

3/ – 6 died, including an old friend (by Special Military Operation standards).
– 5 were wounded, 3 of them seriously, and did not return.
– 2 are on the verge of losing their health. One has a mental condition, the other has a back problem, nerve compression in the lower back.

— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) July 7, 2024

No man’s land:

The front line in Ukraine is visible from space.

Russia’s full-scale invasion has left many fields in Ukraine inaccessible or within occupied territory. pic.twitter.com/Yb2CgLRtvx

— Brady Africk (@bradyafr) July 7, 2024

The Ukrainians brought down another Su-25 over Donetsk Oblast:

Great news to make your Sunday better!
The warriors from the 110th Mechanized Brigade shot down a russian Su-25 jet in the Donetsk region.
Good job! pic.twitter.com/2WvoRB80fs

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 7, 2024

Serebryansky forest, Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

The Groza Battallion showed a first-person video of the combat actions in the Serebryansky forest. pic.twitter.com/ZTaluXOz32

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 7, 2024

The Avdiivka front:

MURAMASA unit continues destroying Russian 2S19 Msta-S self propelled howitzers on the Avdiivka front. https://t.co/L3BeybRYCu pic.twitter.com/e4JHckKnxk

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 7, 2024

Novooleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast:

Aviation strike on Russian positions. And destruction of the Russian BUK air defense system. https://t.co/WivsowMR4m pic.twitter.com/mDYM5vBn6W

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 7, 2024

Moscow:

In other news, there’ll be also a partnership with Sinaloa Cartel to fight international drug trafficking https://t.co/ew9xRBpqus

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 7, 2024

Oy vey.

Great video by Covert Cabal estimating the number, models and condition of tanks remaining at Russian storage bases using satellite images.

YouTube: https://t.co/eSD3If60C1 pic.twitter.com/TiWRzDOoLW

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 7, 2024

Here’s the full video:

Voronezh Oblast, Russia:

Continued large explosions in Sergeevka, Voronezh Oblast, where a field ammunition depot placed over 9 thousand square meters has been attacked by a drone earlier today.

The Russians stored surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles, shells for tanks and artillery, and… pic.twitter.com/01hJatasc1

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) July 7, 2024

Continued large explosions in Sergeevka, Voronezh Oblast, where a field ammunition depot placed over 9 thousand square meters has been attacked by a drone earlier today.

The Russians stored surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles, shells for tanks and artillery, and boxes of ammunition for firearms at the facility.

More ammo that’ll never make it to Ukraine..

Hours after being struck, the ammo depot in Voronezh, Russia continues detonating. pic.twitter.com/ZcyqFtseCX

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) July 7, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First, some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Once discovered as a small puppy at the training ground, Buch become a service dog who approaches Ukraine’s victory.

📷: 47th Artillery Brigade pic.twitter.com/UMc7qcHx3M

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 7, 2024

Swallows have made a nest in the Ukrainian Defenders’ dugout.

“We saw that there were four eggs. When I woke up in the morning, there was an eggshell next to me. We realized that the first baby had hatched. That’s how our four babies appeared,” a Ukrainian Warrior said.

📹:… pic.twitter.com/j0GpzFFaxI

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 7, 2024

Baby battle birds!

Swallows have made a nest in the Ukrainian Defenders’ dugout.

“We saw that there were four eggs. When I woke up in the morning, there was an eggshell next to me. We realized that the first baby had hatched. That’s how our four babies appeared,” a Ukrainian Warrior said.

📹: Radio Svoboda

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Чекаємо з нетерпінням ❤️🤞🏻 @Ukrzaliznytsia

♬ оригинальный звук – perchikov_v

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Looking forward to it ❤️🤞🏻 @Ukrzaliznytsia

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 865: All of Ukraine is Under Air Raid Alert & Russian Missiles Are Inbound!Post + Comments (22)

Adam Schiff is Wrong About the Election

by @heymistermix.com|  July 7, 20243:55 pm| 308 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Adam Schiff is Wrong About the Election

De Facto Senator-Elect Adam Schiff made some headlines by going on Meet the Republicans this morning.   In Schiff’s view, Kamala Harris will easily beat Trump.  Here’s his take on the election.

SCHIFF:  […]  Given Joe Biden’s incredible record, given Donald Trump’s terrible record, he should be mopping the floor with Donald Trump. Joe Biden’s running against a criminal. It should not be even close. And there’s only one reason it is close, and that’s the president’s age.

I don’t believe this.  Schiff thinks that Trump’s criminality is sort of a res ipsa loquitur trait — once people see he’s a criminal, then their moral compass or something else (not clear what) will make them not vote for Trump.  This is not how the current electorate works, but it sure a DC-brain-Democrat way of looking at politics.  “If only everyone knows that Trump is bad, we’ve got this election in the bag.”

Everyone knows that Trump is bad.  No Democrat, not even Johnny Unbeatable, would have this election in the bag.

Schiff doesn’t seem to understand (or articulate) that there is a radicalized hard right in this country, and Trump is their personal Jesus.  These people celebrate Trump’s criminality as another thorn in the side of their savior.  It is a fucking fantasy to think that Kamala Harris will wipe the floor with Trump, especially after all the chaos that will come from switching candidates in July.  Yes she could win, but it sure isn’t the no-brainer that Schiff is predicting, especially after the media narrative that’s he’s on Meet the Republicans aiding and abetting.

Now let’s look at how a more loyal, less clever surrogate handled the Biden age/can he win question:

President Biden can clearly defeat Donald Trump, the most dangerous president in the history of this country. And the choice is quite clear. You got in Trump, somebody wants to take away a woman’s right to control her body, who thinks that climate change is a hoax, And it has turned his back on the working class of this country. And on the other side, you have Joe Biden, first president in American history to walk a picket line; we have put more money into fighting climate change than any time in the history of this country; we’re rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure. […]

And let’s- let me say this, and maybe the most important point, Bob, I want to make this morning: what we’re talking about now is not a Grammy Award contest for best singer. Biden is old, he’s not as articulate as he once was. I wish he could jump up the steps on Air Force One. He can’t. What we have got to focus on is policy. Whose policies have and will benefit the vast majority of the people in this country? Who wants the guts to take on corporate America? Who is talking about expanding Medicare so we cover dental, hearing and vision? Who’s talking about raising the cap on the taxes that people pay into Social Security so we can raise social security benefits and extend the life of Social Security for 75 years? Who’s talking about a permanent child tax credit to cut childhood poverty in America by 50%? Those are the issues he’s talked about. He’s got to bring them up in the floor. He’s got to promise the American people that if they give him a Democratic Senate, a Democratic House, reelect him, he’s gonna do that in the first 100 days. That’s what I think the American people want.

Yep, that’s B-J fan favorite Bernie Sanders in campaign mode, keeping on message.  Read the whole thing because, as usual, Sander’s gripe with the Biden campaign is that they need to hit more bread-and-butter working class issues.  He would have said the same thing in April and he’ll say the same thing in August.  Of course, nobody in the press pays attention to Bernie because they’re like a pack of the stupidest dogs on earth chasing a car, with no idea what will happen once that car is caught.  Also he talks about policy, and that’s boring.  Palace intrigue and horse races are so much more “interesting”.  (Here’s a post by Marcy Wheeler and another from Jennifer Schulze about how the media is totally falling down on the job at reporting Biden’s mental decline, if that decline is indeed recent and precipitous, because of the frenzy and hysteria of the last 10 days.)

Speaking of cars, I have an analogy for those who still subscribe to the New York Times.  There are oil change places all over every town and city.  Say you started taking your car to one of those places — they’re able to change the oil, but they also tell you that your car is a piece of shit, the wrong color, and that people are saying it’s  something even your grandmother would be ashamed to drive.  Would you heed their advice and get a new car, or would you find a new place to change your oil?   If this last few weeks have shown us anything, it’s that the Times’ inclination to twist facts to fit narrative makes them the journalistic equivalent of an oil change garage that forgets to replace your drain plug.  Unsubscribe and tell them why.

Adam Schiff is Wrong About the ElectionPost + Comments (308)

Good News from France

by @heymistermix.com|  July 7, 20242:53 pm| 82 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Good News from France

I don’t know shit about French politics but it looks like the Left/Center took their election, judging by the exit polls. Macron lost support, the Right gained support, and so did the Left.  Predictions were that Macron was going to go down in flames.  Here’s Taniel’s Bluesky thread on the election, along with short “what’s next” explanation.  Here’s the Guardian livestream.

Also, I’m finding that Bluesky is getting steadily better and has a lot of useful, non-troll content.  Tom Levenson, former FP and steady hand Cheryl Rofer and the asshole writing this post all have active accounts there.

Good News from FrancePost + Comments (82)

Sunday! Sunday! Sunday! (Open Thread)

by WaterGirl|  July 7, 202410:15 am| 349 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Sorry, I just couldn’t resist!  For some reason, that old ad “Sunday!  Sunday!  Sunday!”  went through my head as I started to type Sunday, and I couldn’t help myself.

This is a wide-open open thread.

We do have a couple of awesome late entries to the NYT Challenge thread from last night.  I was already asleep by the time they arrived, but they are too good not to be shared.  You can find the original post here, complete with instructions and the original image to work with, if you’d like to play.

This one from Michael Bersin.

And this one from Tony Jay.

I knew when I put the post up last night that you guys wouldn’t let me down. Applications still being accepted!

Open thread.

comrade scott’s agenda of rage implemented Jazzman’s inspired idea!

comrade scott’s agenda of rage, with his own idea!

Most excellent!

Two more from Tony Jay:

From Ramalama

Sunday! Sunday! Sunday! (Open Thread) 4 Sunday! Sunday! Sunday! (Open Thread) 5

NotMax

Sunday! Sunday! Sunday! (Open Thread)Post + Comments (349)

Sunday Morning Open Thread: TFG Tries to Refudiate Project 2025

by Anne Laurie|  July 7, 20248:28 am| 130 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads, Republican Venality, Trump Crime Cartel

the second american revolution apparently not polling as well as the first in internal focus groups pic.twitter.com/k6NmWDq0VS

— ian bremmer (@ianbremmer) July 5, 2024

They’re very fine people https://t.co/M1Tl4MQGc1

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) July 5, 2024

As is his life-long habit, Trump wants the credit for any successful project, but not the blame for anything that goes wrong. Per the Associated Press, “Trump denies knowing about Project 2025, his allies’ sweeping plan to transform the US government”:

Donald Trump distanced himself Friday from Project 2025, a massive proposed overhaul of the federal government drafted by longtime allies and former officials in his administration, days after the head of the think tank responsible for the program suggested there would be a second American Revolution…

The 922-page plan outlines a dramatic expansion of presidential power and a plan to fire as many as 50,000 government workers to replace them with Trump loyalists. President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign has worked to draw more attention to the agenda, particularly as Biden tries to keep fellow Democrats on board after his disastrous debate.

Trump has outlined his own plans to remake the government if he wins a second term, including staging the largest deportation operation in U.S. history and imposing tariffs on potentially all imports. His campaign has previously warned outside allies not to presume to speak for the former president and suggested their transition-in-waiting efforts were unhelpful.

Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts said on Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast Tuesday that Republicans are “in the process of taking this country back.” Former U.S. Rep. Dave Brat of Virginia hosted the show for Bannon, who is serving a four-month prison term.

“We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be,” Roberts said.

Those comments were widely circulated online and blasted by the Biden campaign, which issued a statement saying Trump and his allies were “dreaming of a violent revolution to destroy the very idea of America.”…

show full post on front page

Trump’s comments on Project 2025 come ahead of the Republican Party’s meetings next week to begin to draft its party platform.

Project 2025 has been preparing its own 180-day agenda for the next administration that it plans to share privately, rather than as part of its public-facing book of priorities for a Republican president. A key Trump ally, Russ Vought, who contributed to Project 2025 and is drafting this final pillar, is also on the Republican National Committee’s platform writing committee.

A spokesperson for the plan said Project 2025 is not tied to a specific candidate or campaign.

“We are a coalition of more than 110 conservative groups advocating policy and personnel recommendations for the next conservative president,” a statement said. “But it is ultimately up to that president, who we believe will be President Trump, to decide which recommendations to implement.”…

The only real question is why did Trump commission the 2025 Project and now he’s trying to run away from it when people see all the sicko things he wants to do to America? This is just a matter of getting caught. Not complicated.

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) July 5, 2024

Two things are probably simultaneously true:

1. I think it's likely he doesn't know very much about it, even though it's probably been explained to him.

2. Whether he does or not, if he wins he'll happily sit around and watch TV all day while his staff implements it. pic.twitter.com/40a4mRUibF

— Schrödinger's Sneetch Belly (@RTodKelly) July 5, 2024

Oh cool I see we’re going that thing again where we pretend Trump is moderating on an issue and not a known craven liar

— Susan J. Demas ?? (@sjdemas) July 5, 2024

It’s precisely because Trump is so indifferent to policy that the Project 2025 initiative to staff his administration is worth looking at closely — the executive branch is really big and the government keeps doing stuff even if POTUS doesn’t care about the details. https://t.co/51PGgYCcX0

— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) July 6, 2024


 
Caring is sharing, folks — here’s a short list to circulate:
Project 2025 - STOCKPILE

Here is Trump saying he “needs” the Heritage Foundation, the organization behind Project 2025, in order to “achieve” his extreme MAGA agenda https://t.co/AyuAbyz7aU pic.twitter.com/Sr72hdOKXC

— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) July 5, 2024

A few more thoughts on this. In addition to the comedy of denying knowing anything about this thing his inner circle built and which all his allied groups have signed on to it's also a window into how the whole Trump operation works. His people take him aside and say hey … https://t.co/Vyd6D0jaVz

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) July 5, 2024

3/ Also many good people on both sides. And then he turns to his people and says, okay i handled it.

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) July 5, 2024

of course he is, even though all his key people are involved in it. this is the Dems hope and it's a real and powerful one. Trump's actual agenda is toxic. He's literally running away from it. That's a lot to work with for any nominee. https://t.co/Vyd6D0jaVz

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) July 5, 2024

"I have no idea who is behind it." I mean that would be a fun lead off for an explainer. Since the people who are behind it are his campaign staff and his loyalists from his presidency. If he doesn't remember who they are, maybe we're back in cognitive test territory?

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) July 5, 2024

Speaking of highly punchable untrustworthy faces…

This is top Trump aide Russ Vought, one of the authors of Project 2025.

He is also in charge of the Republican Party’s platform committee. Yes, the same person writing Project 2025 is writing Trump’s GOP platform. https://t.co/AyuAbyz7aU pic.twitter.com/v4Da9gWmpy

— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) July 5, 2024

The antecedent to Project 2025 was Vought’s OMB tenure in which he tried to make thousands of career professional civil servants into people he could fire and replace with pro-Trump goons. https://t.co/jSXsWiFVc0

— Clean Observer (@Hammbear2024) July 6, 2024

His pattern comes from his deep seated insecurity. Trump leans into his worst impulses, the Republican base loves it, so he goes further. But when he realizes how unpopular that is, it terrifies him so he lies and backtracks. Only he’s a bad person at heart so the cycle repeats. https://t.co/JbAwHwgpOg

— Jason Karsh (@jkarsh) July 5, 2024

Sunday Morning Open Thread: TFG Tries to Refudiate Project 2025Post + Comments (130)

Late Night Open Thread: OMG They Admit It!…

by Anne Laurie|  July 7, 20243:23 am| 122 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Excellent Links, Open Threads, Our Failed Media Experiment

Oh My God He Admit It Tim Robinson GIFfrom Oh My God He Admit It GIFs


 

Most fun they've had in four years. https://t.co/KAUkdLU3b1

— Shadow Of The Nerdtree (@agraybee) July 6, 2024

Everyone in the media calling for Biden to step down understands this, they're just pretending not to because they want the chaos that would come with a sudden transition and if it drags out too long they can't plausibly take the credit for pushing him out

— The Angry Internet (@Angry__Internet) July 6, 2024

I am not usually one to offer diagnoses of people I’ve never met, but it does seem like the pundit class of the American media is suffering from severe memory loss. Because they’re doing exactly what they did in the 2016 presidential race…. https://t.co/Grrngz7Iyc

— Rebecca Solnit (@RebeccaSolnit) July 6, 2024

The News Gnus stampede… From the Guardian, “Why is the pundit class so desperate to push Biden out of the race?”:

… They have become a stampeding herd producing an avalanche of stories suggesting Biden is unfit, will lose and should go away, at a point in the campaign in which replacing him would likely be somewhere between extremely difficult and utterly catastrophic. They do this while ignoring something every scholar and critic of journalism knows well and every journalist should. As Nikole Hannah-Jones put it: “As media we consistently proclaim that we are just reporting the news when in fact we are driving it. What we cover, how we cover it, determines often what Americans think is important and how they perceive these issues yet we keep pretending it’s not so.” They are not reporting that he is a loser; they are making him one.

show full post on front page

According to one journalist’s tally, the New York Times has run 192 stories on the subject since the debate, including 50 editorials and 142 news stories. The Washington Post, which has also gone for saturation coverage, published a resignation speech they wrote for him. Not to be outdone, the New Yorker’s editor-in-chief declared that Biden not going away “would be an act not only of self-delusion but of national endangerment” and had a staff writer suggest that Democrats should use the never-before-deployed 25th amendment.

Since this would have to be led by Vice-President Kamala Harris, it would be a sort of insider coup. And so it goes with what appears to be a journalistic competition to outdo each other in the aggressiveness of the attacks and the unreality of the proposals. It’s a dogpile and a panic, and there is no one more unable to understand their own emotional life, biases and motives than people who are utterly convinced of their own ironclad rationality and objectivity, AKA most of these pundits…

“Why aren’t we talking about Trump’s fascism?” demands the headline of Jeet Heer’s piece in the Nation, to which the answer might be a piece by the Nation’s own editor-in-chief titled “Biden’s patriotic duty” that proposes his duty is to get lost. Sometimes I wonder if all this coverage is because the media knows how to cover a normal problem like a sub-par candidate; they don’t know how to cover something as abnormal and unprecedented as the end of the republic. So for the most part they don’t…

Although the Biden administration seems to have run extremely well for three and a half years, with a strong cabinet, few scandals and little turnover, a thriving economy and some major legislative accomplishments, the narrative the punditocracy has created suggest we should ignore this record and decide on the basis of the 90-minute debate and reference to newly surfaced swarms of anonymous sources that Biden is incompetent. Quite a lot of them have been running magical-realism fantasy-football scenarios in which it is fun and easy to swap in your favorite substitute candidate. The reality is that it is hard and quite likely to be a terrible mess. Nevertheless, this pretense is supposed to mean that telling a presidential candidate in mid-campaign to get lost is fine…

which is why the dem electeds should calm down and air their grievances to the admin, not the media.

— Fat Tea. (@Fat_DTEA) July 6, 2024

They probably are. No one important appears to be talking to the media, that's why we're getting sources like "person with access to the White House."

— Shadow Of The Nerdtree (@agraybee) July 6, 2024

If anything, that almost proves it won’t happen. Once people realize how much WORK and TIME it will take, they may back out.

Doesn’t make it impossible, but people are picturing some glorious, dramatic, instant transfer of power. And then everyone clapped.

— The Nerd the Size of a Man (@LeftyPuppetMan) July 6, 2024

You don’t destroy hundreds of already operating field offices just bc Beltway insiders have a fantasy that Republicans will treat the next person nicer.

It’s not Biden, folks it’s the D brand against the R propaganda machine.

Fix it or lose. https://t.co/nXHupz9S3x

— Rachel Bitecofer ???????? (@RachelBitecofer) July 6, 2024

Late Night Open Thread: <em>OMG They Admit It!… </em>Post + Comments (122)

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