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Balloon Juice

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War for Ukraine Day 1,256: The Cost

by Adam L Silverman|  August 3, 20259:22 pm| 5 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A painting by the Ukrainain artist NEIVANMADE. The upper 1/2 is grey and there are black Shahed drones on it aimed towards the bottom of the painting. The bottom half of the painting has a blood red background and in the center of the bottom is a house, to it's left is a swing set, and to its right is a car. They are charcoal grey on the blood red background background. The drones are targeting the house, swing set, and car. Above the house and below the drones are the words "Russia Kills To Erase Free People".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Last week was a very long week and this has been a long, but good weekend. So I’m just going to run through the basics tonight so I can rack out.

One additional item: I know some of you are tracking that a retired US Army Special Forces (Green Beret) officer, LTC (ret) Anthony Aguilar, has publicly blown the whistle on what he observed – war crimes and crimes against humanity – during the short time he was working as a contractor for the very bizarre organization that is allegedly providing and distributing aid in Gaza. Here is the video of his entire interview, which was conducted by Argentine-Israeli reporter Noga Tarnopolsky, who is also France24’s Israel correspondent. It’s in English.

The cost:

All day, people have been bringing flowers to the building in Kyiv shattered by a Russian missile. 31 lives ended here.

Over the past few days, I’ve been translating their obituaries from Ukrainian media into English. Not just because they deserve to be remembered – though they do.
1/3

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 12:20 PM

But because I want you to think of them the next time you hear recycled russian propaganda. ‘But you celebrate bombing oil refineries,’ they say. ‘But you this, but you that.’

2/3

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 12:20 PM

Yes. We celebrate setting fire to the Russian war machine. The same machine that does this to sleeping families. To children. And you should too.

3/3

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 12:20 PM

Ukraine and Russia have agreed on a prisoner exchange involving 1,200 people, Zelensky reported after talks with NSDC Secretary Umerov and PO Head Yermak. Work on the lists continues, including efforts to return civilians and abducted children.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 6:26 AM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Our Goal Is the Full and Effective Integration of the Air Force of Ukraine with NATO Forces – Address by the President

3 August 2025 – 16:36

Dear Ukrainians!

Today, we thank our Air Force warriors – it is their professional day. Heroic people. Today, I personally expressed gratitude to them, presented awards, and also heard very important reports on the development of our Air Force, all of its components: combat aviation, our anti-aircraft missile forces, and radio-technical forces – every element is being given the strength it deserves. This year alone, our Air Force received Mirages – combat aircraft from France – as well as additional F-16s. And more are coming. Today, we also approved the next stages in the development of our combat aviation – new platforms and new steps in integrating our forces with the forces of partners. Our goal is the full and effective integration of the Air Force of Ukraine with NATO forces – something that will undoubtedly give Ukraine’s defense greater capabilities and, at the same time, make our country an even stronger part of Europe’s defense. The system for managing and developing our combat aviation is functioning in a comprehensive manner — within the Armed Forces, the General Staff, and the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. I want to thank all the specialists involved.

Today, I appointed Anatolii Kryvonozhko as Commander of the Air Force – he had been serving as Acting Commander for nearly a year, and much has been accomplished. It is important for everyone to continue working as one team – across state institutions, with partners, and with the professional community.

There was also a report today from the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council – in particular, on preparations for upcoming meetings of the Staff. Among the issues on the agenda are the state of air defense and the new systems that will arrive in Ukraine. We are preparing for the heating season, and, of course, strengthening air defense, anti-shahed solutions, and our domestic weapons production are among the elements of our preparations for winter. The condition of critical infrastructure and the necessary decisions regarding it will also be addressed at the Staff.

Rustem Umerov also reported today on his communication with the Russian side: an exchange of 1,200 of our people who are currently in captivity is being prepared. We must bring everyone home – all our military personnel and all our civilians. No matter how difficult it may be. Head of the Office Andriy Yermak reported on communication with our partners, in particular with the Americans: the United States is committed to providing support. I would like to express my gratitude for that. Pressure on Russia can truly work – in a way that makes them feel the consequences of prolonging the war.

I also held a meeting today on our sanctions policy. Three sanctions packages have been prepared, and the first one has already been enacted today. Sanctions have been imposed on the captains of Russia’s shadow fleet, and we will synchronize all of this – all of these packages – with our partners to ensure the pressure is effective across most jurisdictions. I have approved the synchronization of our partners’ sanctions in our jurisdiction for next week – all necessary decisions by partners must be mirrored by Ukrainian sanctions.

And one more thing. I want to thank our people in the Kherson region, in Mykolaiv, in our cities and communities in the South, in our Kharkiv region, in the Sumy region. Everywhere where Russian strikes are constant – targeting ordinary buildings, energy infrastructure, and essentially just people’s lives. And there is always restoration work underway, and our people always do their absolute best to save others. Thank you! Thanks! I thank everyone who works like this – for the sake of our country and our people. Thank you to everyone who stands with Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

President Zelenskyy also presented awards to members of the Ukrainian Air Force on their national day of service.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy Congratulated Air Force Warriors and Presented State Awards

3 August 2025 – 19:09

On the Day of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Air Force warriors, presented them with state awards, and handed over battle flags and ribbons of the honorary distinction “For Courage and Bravery” to unit commanders.

The Head of State thanked the defenders of Ukraine’s skies for their daily dedicated service. Ukraine’s Air Force has demonstrated real skill and readiness to face any challenge: air strikes, air cover, and reconnaissance. Pilots have already carried out 28,000 combat sorties. Over 25,000 Russian aerial targets have been destroyed – including hundreds of combat aircraft and helicopters, thousands of cruise missiles, and tens of thousands of drones.

“In record time, our warriors have mastered the Patriot, SAMP/T, NASAMS, IRIS-T, and other air defense systems. And in the skies, our aces are piloting F-16s and Mirages. What not long ago seemed impossible to many is now a reality,” the President noted.

The Head of State emphasized that thanks to the skill and professionalism of every Air Force warrior, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian lives have been saved.

Those present honored the memory of all Air Force warriors who gave their lives for Ukraine and now remain forever in the skies with a moment of silence.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented the families of fallen Heroes of Ukraine with the Order of the Golden Star. The highest state title was posthumously awarded to:

Colonel Dmytro Fisher. First-Class Military Pilot. He logged over 1,230 hours in the air. Since 2014, Dmytro Fisher had been providing air support to our troops. With the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, he defended the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions, carried out air strikes against the enemy near Zmiinyi Island, and struck Russian oil infrastructure. His final flight took place on June 5, 2022, when his Su-27 was hit by enemy air defense over the Zaporizhzhia region.

Captain Vadym Moroz. On the night of February 23–24, 2022, he maneuvered his aircraft out from under a Russian missile strike on the airfield. In the first days of the full-scale war, he destroyed pontoon bridges, armored convoys, refuelers, and enemy crossings in the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. On March 3, 2022, he carried out a strike on an enemy column consisting of over 1,000 pieces of equipment. During this operation, Vadym Moroz’s aircraft was hit by an enemy missile. He was killed but managed to steer his burning aircraft away from a populated area.

Major Pavlo Ivanov. He quickly mastered four types of aircraft, including the F-16. From the first days of the full-scale war, he destroyed enemy equipment, command posts, vehicle columns, and occupying forces. He logged 422 hours of combat flight time, including under conditions of active counteraction by enemy air defense forces and fighter jets. This year, Pavlo Ivanov carried out 30 combat sorties. He was killed during one of them – on April 12 – in the skies over the Sumy region.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also personally presented the Order of the Golden Star to three Heroes of Ukraine.

The Head of State also awarded Air Force warriors with the Orders of Bohdan Khmelnytsky, 3rd Class, as well as the Orders “For Courage,” 2nd and 3rd Class.

In addition, Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented battle flags to the deputy commander of the 107th Separate Aviation Wing and the commander of the 17th Separate Electronic Warfare Battalion. Ribbons of the honorary distinction “For Courage and Bravery” were awarded to the commanders of the 14th Uman Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade and the 19th Separate Pivdennyi Buh Brigade of Special-Purpose Radio and Electronic Intelligence. A ribbon with the honorary title “Vasylkivskyi” was also presented to the head of the 38th Joint Training Center.

Georgia:

A Ukrainian activist, present every day at the Rustaveli protests in Georgia, proudly waving the Georgian flag. 🇺🇦🇬🇪

Day 249 of daily, nationwide protests.

📷 Publika

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 2:50 PM

For the 249th consecutive day, Rustaveli Avenue is blocked in Tbilisi, Georgia.

Protests continue in 8+ cities across the country. 🇬🇪

Freedom to our 60+ political prisoners. Down with the Russian regime.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 2:11 PM

More than 200 organizations, associations, and professionals working on mental health and psychiatry issue a statement condemning the political use of psychiatry and call on the judiciary to refrain from such steps.
More signatures are being added.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 6:25 AM

The regime removes stencils depicting heroes such as Giorgi Antsukhelidze (of the 2008 Russian invasion). They are afraid that everything patriotic undermines them, and correctly so.

Yesterday, they also searched the home of a Georgian fighter in Ukraine.

📷 Tinatin Bolokadze

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 7:05 AM

Every now and then, stray dogs show up at the Rustaveli protest with infected wounds.

Since a lot of us are also animal activists (by necessity, because GD hasn’t introduced animal population management initiatives in 13 years), we try to treat the wound. 🐕

Today’s patient:

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 2:47 PM

Estonia:

Estonia is installing barriers on its border with Russia. Massive metal gates have been set up on the Friendship Bridge from Ivangorod to Narva, forming part of a roadblock system that can quickly block passage if needed.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 4:43 AM

NATO is considering stationing a German-Dutch allied corps in Pärnu, Estonia, as part of a broader strategy for the Baltic region. The final decision is expected this year. The new headquarters would host 100–200 personnel and require €17 million in infrastructure.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 7:37 AM

Back to Ukraine.

Here’s a nice long interview – a little over an hour – with LTG Budanov, the Director of Ukraine’s Maine Directorate of Intelligence (HUR). I’ve got the English subtitles/closed captioning turned on.

Drones attacked multiple targets overnight in Voronezh, Crimea, Adler, Sochi, and Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod region. Reported strikes include the 810th Russian brigade, air defense sites, oil depots, and warehouses near airports. Fires and damage were reported, some caused by air defense activity.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 2:51 AM

Russian sabotage behind Ukrainian lines is increasing, forcing the Defence Forces to deploy special reserves. The situation is especially tense in Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, and Novopavlivka, with Syrskyi coordinating counter-sabotage actions on the ground.

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) August 3, 2025 at 5:33 AM

Destruction of a Russian Lada loaded with ammunition somewhere on the front line

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 3:48 AM

Ukrainian Omega special forces used mortars to destroy Russian positions. The unit published footage of the strikes.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 11:00 AM

HUR has obtained classified internal documents on Russia’s newest nuclear submarine Knyaz Pozharsky, project 955A Borei-A. The files include full crew lists, combat instructions, ship schematics, engineering reports, and daily operational schedules.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 4:27 AM

The data reveals technical limitations not only of Knyaz Pozharsky but also of other Borei-A submarines, which are key elements of Russia’s nuclear triad. The submarine joined the Northern Fleet on July 24, 2025, with Putin personally overseeing its deployment.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 4:27 AM

As I’ve written many times, we’ve learned over the past three and a half years that the US, the EU, and NATO need Ukraine as much if not more than Ukraine needs the US, the EU, and NATO.

Kharkiv:

Russian drones in Kharkiv skies. Air defense is active ‼️

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 6:52 PM

Kramatorsk:

Kramatorsk: The body of another woman was pulled from the rubble after a Russian attack.

Russian forces struck the city center on July 31st. As of yesterday evening, authorities reported 4 people had died in the attack.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 9:51 AM

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 9:51 AM

Kyiv:

Kyiv subway during bombings my beloved

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— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 4:39 PM

Feel so unprepared with my yoga mat

— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 4:40 PM

Kupyansk:

Ukrainian pilots from the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade destroyed a Russian 152mm Hyacinth-B howitzer in the Kupiansk sector. Footage of the strike was published by the 10th Army Corps.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 1:31 PM

Mykolaiv:

A Kh-22 missile strike hit a residential area in Mykolaiv early this morning, damaging apartment buildings, private homes, and vehicles. Several civilians were injured. Footage shows the immediate aftermath.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 10:15 AM

Lyman:

Ukrainian pilots from SIGNUM identified a Russian camp called “Rublevka” in the Lyman sector. The site included shelters, vehicles, and supplies. The camp was destroyed after aerial reconnaissance.

P.S. Rublevka is an elite district near Moscow.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 8:30 AM

Kherson:

Ukrainian intelligence reports no Russian troops are preparing to cross the Dnipro by boat to storm Kherson, Defense Forces South spokesman Voloshyn told Suspilne. According to him, the bridge served civilians and there were no military sites nearby.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 8:19 AM

26.07 Russian forces “capture” a village

27.07 Russian forces decomposing in a village

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 11:41 AM

Russia by way of Belarus:

This interview was a disaster from Putin’s media team. He looked old and worn shoulders sagging, squinting into the sun, with the wind flicking at the few hairs left on his bald spot.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 12:08 PM

This aging goblin once scared the West, but old men need stage props to appear powerful. Strip away the set dressing, and he’s just… pathetic aging murderer. very apparently mortal.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 12:08 PM

You will not be surprised to find out that over the course of his remarks he made the usual demands: Ukraine had to cede Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts to Russia and recognize they are Russia; abandon all attempts, efforts, and intention to join the EU and NATO; the Ukrainian government had to be cleansed of Russophobes and those seeking to join the EU and NATO; etc. Same delusional, genocidal demands he’s had since the war began and he realized he couldn’t actually take Ukraine at all, let alone in three days, and that despite wave upon wave of meat cube attacks, his forces have barely moved the lines farther into Ukraine over the past two and a half to three years.

Sochi:

Morning! The Ukrainian defense forces brought another beautiful news to us: one more russian oil depot, this time around Sochi, was designated under hellish sanctions last night. Burn, russian war machine, burn.

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 4:06 AM

The aftermath of a drone attack on a Russian oil depot in Adler overnight. The fuel tanks can be seen covered with anti-drone nets

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 3:50 AM

View of the burning oil depot in Sochi from a passenger plane window this morning.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 1:35 PM

Russian teens making tiktok videos with burning oil depot 😬

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 8:23 AM

Russian police have detained the girls who were filming a music video against the backdrop of the burning oil depot in Sochi, Russian Telegram channels report.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 11:31 AM

Apparently Russia’s version of Loony Loomer got them arrested.

Kurgan Oblast, Russia:

A gas distribution station is on fire in Kurgan, Russia, with flames reportedly reaching the height of a ten-story building. Evacuation is underway on the nearby street.
#russiaOnFire
#UkraineWillWin

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— Baba Yaga Fèlla (@babayagafella.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 12:11 PM

The Jewish Autonomous Region, Russia:

Five railcars carrying ship fuel derailed in Russia’s Jewish Autonomous Region on August 2. Two tankers overturned and leaked, causing over 1 million rubles in damage. The train was en route to Vanino port.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 4:40 AM

Last time I looked up the info on Rostat, there weren’t actually any Jews in the Jewish Autonomous Oblast.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

Saturday breakfast delivered by the Hachiko team in the frontline areas of Kherson and Donetsk in Ukraine. It’s getting more dangerous due to huge numbers of Russian drones attacking civilians, but we will keep doing what we can to help these little ones.

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— Nate Mook (@natemook.bsky.social) July 19, 2025 at 10:18 AM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,256: The CostPost + Comments (5)

‘For Entertainment Purposes Only’ Open Thread

by Anne Laurie|  August 3, 20256:15 pm| 45 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Grifters Gonna Grift, Open Threads, Our Failed Media Experiment

www.truthdig.com/articles/is-… Who Thinks the Free Press Is Worth a Quarter-Billion Dollars? – Truthdig

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— LeftonMain (@leftonmainst.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 9:18 PM

Jeb Lund, at Truthdig, on “CBS News, David Ellison and Bari Weiss’ extremely overvalued bonfire of elite vanities”:

… Weiss’ name appeared last week in relation to CBS owner Paramount’s proposed merger with Skydance Media as a potential adviser for CBS News. That would have been a howler just a few years ago, but given that Paramount has already paid Donald Trump’s presidential library what was effectively a $16 million bribe and canceled “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” after he described the settlement as “a big fat bribe,” this didn’t seem out of character for the company’s zesty new direction. The merger went through yesterday, and her future awaits.

What shape her advisory role ultimately takes is still up for grabs, but her reported asking price is a $250 million payday for her news site, the Free Press, which changed its name from “Common Sense,” and which entirely bypassed a descriptive title like, “No, Old Rich White Guy, After Further Review It Turns Out You Were Right All Along.”

Aside from the above, it’s not clear what service Weiss actually offers CBS. Ostensibly, her conservative brand was proposed as a sop to the Trump administration, to grease approval of the CBS/Skydance merger. But one would think the name Ellison would do that already. That handle belongs to David Ellison — CEO of Skydance Media, which brought you a Jack Reacher movie starring garden-gnomic Tom Cruise and coincidentally the worst “Star Trek” film. But Ellison is a leader the same way that you’re the driver when you sit in your dad’s lap and steer the car; you might have your hands on the wheel, but come on. And in Dave’s case, his dad is Larry Ellison, the CEO of Oracle, and — in the universe of right-wing whackjobs in charge of tech companies — something like the Karl Lueger to Elon Musk’s Adolf Hitler. You don’t need Bari Weiss to gloss this pedigree, and the problem for her, Ellison and CBS, is that she can’t do anything else.

Weiss has been very fortunate until now. If Musk’s rockets could fail upward with the same reliability as her career, there wouldn’t be ducks choking to death on engine parts in Texas wetlands today. The problem is that a national network news division is the sort of results-oriented, audience-dependent job where this kind of luck runs out, especially if it long ago should have.

Her first taste of notoriety began during her undergraduate years at Columbia University as she tried to silence and punish professors for talking about Palestine without her consent. That this act launched her career as a free-speech warrior is sort of like learning that Batman became a vigilante after watching his parents get murdered by his own hand…

Naturally, the right-wing leadership of the New York Times came calling. Today, Weiss’ Times career reads like a sales pitch for subscribing to the Free Press, but at the time it felt of a piece with the opinion section’s commitment to laundering conservative grievances at the expense of and often directly contradictory to the rest of the paper’s reporting. The Times already employed Stephens, and Ross Douthat was in the middle of his metamorphosis as the in-house fascist ball fondler. It would take a lot to stand out, but Weiss found a way…

show full post on front page

Outside of embarrassments, her work is room temperature, bearing notice only because something has gone wrong. Any claims to greatness rest on trying to brand garden-variety and decades-old reactionary hate as the just-questioning quest of an “Intellectual Dark Web” and publishing a middle-school class report on Australia. The latter may be the most lamestain thing in the Times since big bag of blotation, becoming funny only after recovering from the neutron-star density of cringe. At the time, one begged for a wink — “in Australia, they call alternative music ‘frogstomp’ and refer to the buttocks as ‘the minogue’” — to suggest it was all a prank on the squares in charge, one last up-the-bosses expense account ripoff on the way out.

But the bosses are all right. The bosses, in fact, are the one thing Bari Weiss is good at. She’s “effectively overfamiliar, performatively attuned to people’s vanities” and “speaks to the one-hundredth of 1 percent.” They give lots of free press to the Free Press, passing on their endorsements on their podcasts to the large audiences they have of people self-selected to take them seriously for being wealthy. They underwrite her vanity university. It’s probably doing great work in the field of “No, Really, I Should Not Be Criticized If I Say That Word in Public,” but it and the Free Press’ real value is in taking a long performative walk to end up confirming their donors’ priors in the vivid form of a member of the younger generation, who broke free from the woke clutches that have probably taken away a lot of their children. She is performing emotional labor and rescue for them by telling them they are right because they are rich, and they are rich because they’re right. It’s the social-psychological equivalent of turning on motion smoothing for mom and dad and claiming you invented it…

Granted, Weiss’ selling makes sense. This political and economic moment will end, and it’s easier to leave someone else holding the bag for a site that’s just right-wing media pretending that it isn’t. That still doesn’t get CBS much except a clutch of maybe five or six opinions held by every other outlet in conservative media, none of which organically spread beyond the subscriber audience unless a former colleague accepts the Fell For It Award again or one of the author/professors is being shredded with almost atomic detail…

‘For Entertainment Purposes Only’ Open ThreadPost + Comments (45)

Possible NYC Meetup in August

by WaterGirl|  August 3, 20254:59 pm| 16 Comments

This post is in: Balloon Juice, Meetups, Open Threads

strange visitor (from another planet) is suggesting a meetup in August when (I’m guessing) NotMax will be in NYC visiting his mom.

NotMax arrives Aug 15 and heads back home on Sept 1.

Anybody else up for that?

strange visitor is thinking maybe Hamilton’s – right outside an F stop in BK – with good drink menu and great food.  (Is BK Brooklyn?)

Any thoughts on that or other places as a good location?

Chime in below!

Update: I’ve added this to the sidebar  under FEATURING so you guys can carry on the conversation over the coming days.

Possible NYC Meetup in AugustPost + Comments (16)

Afternoon Open Thread

by John Cole|  August 3, 20253:42 pm| 91 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

I have watched this multiple times and it keeps getting funnier

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— Cake or Death (@johngcole.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 3:27 PM

I am still giggling.

Afternoon Open ThreadPost + Comments (91)

Infuriating / Heartbreaking Read: Heightened Scrutiny

by Anne Laurie|  August 3, 202511:52 am| 80 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, LGBTQ Rights Are Human Rights, Our Failed Media Experiment

Heightened Scrutiny hits theaters this week, so I wrote about its lucid case against The Atlantic, New York Times, and every other outlet pushing transphobia for clicks www.avclub.com/heightened-s…
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— Jacob Oller (@jacoboller.bsky.social) July 14, 2025 at 1:07 PM

From the AV Club (in mid-July):

When Heightened Scrutiny played at the Sundance Film Festival in January, audiences didn’t know how United States v. Skrmetti, the trans healthcare case argued in front of the Supreme Court by ACLU lawyer Chase Strangio, would shake out. Arguments in that case, which Sam Feder’s intimate documentary gives ground-level context for, were heard on December 4, 2024. The justices’ decision wouldn’t come down until June. In the interim, the end of the documentary relied on Schrödinger’s ruling; Strangio’s efforts were relentless and surrounded by the rapturous support of his community, but the film had also laid bare the prejudice stacked against them. Donald Trump had not yet retaken office, open hatred was not yet so publicly encouraged. Winning or losing seemed equally possible, equally implausible. Now, though, Heightened Scrutiny is being released to general audiences who already know its ending. That means the majority of its power comes from another case it argues: One against high-profile media outlets and the writers who made targeting trans people into a professional beat.

While much of Feder’s film follows Strangio as he practices, preps, and advocates on a grassroot level for trans youth, some of the most painful and infuriating segments give context for where this apparent surge of nationwide transphobia came from. As the film’s mix of journalist and trans advocate talking heads—like Columbia Journalism dean Jelani Cobb, Semafor executive editor Gina Chua, and Mina Brewer, the 22-year-old model misgendered on The Atlantic‘s famous fearmongering cover—unpack, at its root are a few well-respected publications and the lucrative business model that’s always accompanied moral panic.

These interviewees, shot by Feder in the same diner-style booth at a restaurant (a place for a chat, not a pulpit for a sermon), movingly explain how public opinion had been astro-TERFed against them. A decade ago, Laverne Cox (who also appears in and executive produced the film) dominated the cover of Time, the face of the “transgender tipping point” that would lead to increased visibility of and rights for trans people. For a bit, that inclusive shift seemed true. In 2016, for example, the NBA relocated its All-Star game out of Charlotte because of its discriminatory “bathroom bill.” Trans rights were good PR, worth backing up with a billion-dollar pocketbook. But, between 2021 and 2024, the nation went from having absolutely no states with laws banning gender-affirming care for adolescents, to 23. This turn seems to have originated from far-right Christian nationalists, but was given a massive platform, and an Anita Bryant-like rallying cry, by outlets with a bit more clout than The Daily Wire—all “just asking questions.”…

This framing, analogous to Bryant’s claim in the ’70s that those dastardly gays were “trying to recruit our children into homosexuality,” paved a path for an onslaught of op-eds. Media analyst Julie Hollar provides Heightened Scrutiny with research showing that, over the course of a calendar year, the New York Times was far more likely to run stories portraying the trans rights movement as a threat than to cover any threat against trans people. In the kind of journalistic “if it bleeds, it leads” strategizing that had Nightcrawler‘s star orchestrating his own crime footage, the click-inducing backlash to and credulous consumption of transphobic rhetoric only encouraged editors to greenlight more of it. The floodgates were opened. Hate-reading developed into actual hate. It became such a transparent trend that it led to one of the best Onion headlines in years: “It Is Journalism’s Sacred Duty To Endanger The Lives Of As Many Trans People As Possible.”…

It’s not like the aggressive regression of these outlets—musing on trans athletes and children and the locker rooms and school bathrooms they should be forced to use—has been a secret, but their influence on the laws of the land has rarely been spelled out with such directness and clarity as in this film. Though Skremetti may have prompted the Supreme Court to reopen a slew of trans rights cases, the case was itself prompted by the endless poking and prodding of a select few columnists trying to stay in the spotlight by egging on a witchhunt. No amount of fair, compassionate coverage could fully combat a court literally stacked against pretty much every thinking member of the American public. But as Heightened Scrutiny makes plain, selling out your neighbors for a cushy op-ed gig sprays gasoline on the oppressive flames.

When this doc screened at Sundance, nobody knew how United States v. Skrmetti was going to shake out. Now that we know how it ends, the film’s argument against the media is all the more infuriating

— Jacob Oller (@jacoboller.bsky.social) July 14, 2025 at 1:11 PM

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hope the traffic was worth it, bozos

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— Jacob Oller (@jacoboller.bsky.social) July 14, 2025 at 2:03 PM

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It really is an ugly feedback loop: media bolsters faulty outliers & scare stories for attention, people and governing bodies react negatively to these false and misleading stories, media writes about how these people influenced by their articles justifies the coverage even more.

— Mitch Wolfe (@whrwlfthrwlf85v.bsky.social) July 15, 2025 at 7:22 PM

Infuriating / Heartbreaking Read: <em>Heightened Scrutiny</em>Post + Comments (80)

Can SCOTUS Be Kept from Doing Their Worst?

by WaterGirl|  August 3, 202510:00 am| 99 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Supreme Court, Supreme Court Corruption

Supreme Court Decisions Again Today at 10 am ET (June 26 Edition) & Open Thread

prostrategdragon sent me an interesting / disturbing / action-oriented article from Sherrilyn Ifill.

Facing This Court

A Sober Look at What to Expect in Trump v. Casa And What We Do About It

by Sherrilyn Ifill

None of this means that I am conceding defeat at this point. To the contrary. Even if, as I now believe, the conservative majority would be likely to rule in the President’s favor in Trump v. Casa if the merits were before them today, does not mean that the Court will in fact, ultimately rule in his favor. There’s still time. But it does mean that we must think now about how to create the conditions that can diminish the majority’s willingness to take such a dangerous step, and we must prepare the public for what it will mean if they do.

The article begins:

I have spent a fair amount of time since last summer’s decision in Trump v. United States[i] trying o understand the contours of presidential power in the eyes of justices who constitute the conservative majority on the Supreme Court. Announcing that the President of the United States has immunity for any crimes committed in office so long as his actions could plausibly be described as “official acts,” was an astonishing and dangerous conferral of power on the president – especially on this president – who had shown himself in ways great and small, to be likely to use the cloak of immunity to commit acts even more lurid if he were returned to office than he had in his first term. Trump won the election, and his actions in Trump 2.0 reflect his full understanding of the gift of impunity provided by the Supreme Court.

So what is this conservative majority’s understanding of presidential power? Do they truly not see the danger to the country of a fully unrestrained president? My conclusion a year later is simple. We must with clear eyes confront the only reasonable explanation for the actions of the conservatives on the Supreme Court over the past two years. The conservative majority on this SCOTUS is fully aligned with President Trump’s vision of his Executive power. Not because they are “up to something,” or because of “moneyed interests.” But because the conservatives on this Court have come to genuinely embrace the MAGA vision of Trump’s presidential power. They are aligned with his claim to unfettered executive power, and they do not intend to restrain him.

Precedent, the public interest, the integrity of lower courts and even, I fear, the Constitution must yield, they believe, to that vision.

Yesterday’s decision in McMahon v. New York,[ii] granting a stay of the district court decision enjoining Trump from taking action to close the Department of Education is consistent with this. Issuing no decision to support this extraordinary decision that will dismantle a nearly 50-year-old federal agency is shocking, but only if we continue to believe that there is any other rationale for the Court’s decision besides the obvious one.

It has been long understood that agencies created by Congress can only be shuttered by Congress. Even President Reagan, who announced his campaign for the presidency on a platform that including closing the Department of Education, knew that he could not do so unilaterally. In his first address before both houses of Congress, he made a plea to Congress to join him in fulfilling that campaign promise.[iii] Reagan never could convince Republicans in Congress to support his plan, and so the Department of Education continued its work, rooting our discrimination in educational services, financing every IEP for school children in the country, providing funds to support state shortfalls in education and administering Pell Grants.

Now by granting the stay sought by the Trump Administration, the Supreme Court has allowed Trump to dismantle the Department of Education during the pendency of the litigation. Which is to say, they have allowed Trump to unilaterally dismantle a federal agency created and funded by Congress – not after trial on the merits and appellate review. Not in a carefully crafted decision explaining its rationale. But on the shadow docket and without a word of explanation.

The Court could not make that decision unless it believed that Trump would win the case on the merits. After all there will be no Department of Education to activate after months of litigation, if the Supreme Court later determines that Trump lacked the power to end the Dept. This lifting of the stay imposed by the District Court on Trump’s action tells us that a majority of the justices believe that after litigation on the merits, they would likely conclude that Trump’s actions do not violate the Constitution.

I now believe that the conservative majority on this Court is likely prepared to accept Trump’s argument for overriding the Constitutional guarantee of birthright citizenship. The rationale for such an egregious decision? I cannot fathom. But neither could I imagine the rationale in the immunity decision. They truly believe that Trump’s power should not be constrained.

Once you accept the proposition I have outlined above, then you must accept that finding a rationale to uphold this anti-constitutional usurpation of power by Trump, may be the only project occupying the majority as the merits of the case makes it way up to them, not whether to uphold it.

If we’re honest, the signs have all been there. I have been troubled by the Court’s refusal – at oral argument in Trump v. Casa, or in its voluminous majority opinion and concurrences — to make even a passing reference to the merits of the case. At oral argument, Justices Sotomayor and Kagan, especially talked about the potential consequences of a decision in the national injunction question within the context of the birthright citizenship guarantee. The six justices in the majority maintained scrupulous silence – an odd stance to take in a case challenging a specific constitutional right. Justice Coney Barrett’s majority opinion treats the Court’s silence about the merits as a restrained virtue of its decision. I do not believe that to be the case. The majority’s refusal to say even a word about the monumental context in which the nationwide injunction issue came to the Court seems….ominous.

Sounding the alarm:

Beyond the dubious basis for the Court to advance a “carveout” for the Federal Reserve,[v] is the even more dubious decision of the Court to write to narrow the reach of a stay order to an issue not before it, and that had not even occurred yet. Perhaps it was a pragmatic move by the Court to protect the markets, but the conservative majority has shown little concern for the consequences of many of its other decisions related to presidential power. The Court’s discussion of the Fed in the Wilcox case, makes the Court’s assiduous silence in Trump v. Casa about an EO that purports to overrun an explicit constitutional right, looks less like justices exercising discipline, and more like justices hiding their hand until the right moment.

None of this means that I am conceding defeat at this point. To the contrary. Even if, as I now believe, the conservative majority would be likely to rule in the President’s favor in Trump v. Casa if the merits were before them today, does not mean that the Court will in fact, ultimately rule in his favor. There’s still time. But it does mean that we must think now about how to create the conditions that can diminish the majority’s willingness to take such a dangerous step, and we must prepare the public for what it will mean if they do.

How do we address what may be the Court’s likely inclination to side with Trump on the birthright citizenship issue? I have no doubt that the litigators are doing their part. They are fully equipped with the arguments, the legislative history, the historical context and will provide the briefing and oral advocacy needed to win this case when it comes before the Supreme Court. The amicus briefs filed in the case will be plentiful and illuminating. This case should, by all rights, be a slam-dunk for the Casa lawyers.

But I worry that a decision in this case upholding Trump’s EO would be a catastrophic moment for democracy in this country. We need the engagement of all Americans in working to head off this moment, and in recognizing what it means if we are unable to do so.

If we are to create the conditions that will make the conservative majority on this court (frankly Justices Roberts and Coney Barrett) hesitate in making an extraordinary and unconstitutional announcement of presidential power, we must imbed the knowledge that the lawyers and historians know among the people, not just the Court. We must create an atmosphere of expertise about birthright citizenship, and about the 14th Amendment, and about its significance in our lives.

Moreover, should this Court take the extraordinary step of authorizing this President to override an explicit constitutional right, then every American must be fully cognizant of the magnitude of this decision.

It begins with educating the public. To that end, the 14th Amendment Center for Law & Democracy will be hosting a set of webinars, or “teach-ins,” during the first two weeks of September designed to equip ordinary Americans with the information you need to see with clear eyes the choices the Court will be facing as it decides the merits of this case. We cannot fight effectively when we are uninformed. When some still believe that the core issue in this case is about “migrants” and not about whether democracy and the rule of law will survive in our country, we must bring the information to the people. Every American should know – must know – what is at stake in this case.

So, look for registration information next month. The webinars will be free and open to all who register up to our capacity to accommodate. We must be equipped with the truth if we are to fight. Let’s go!

What do you think?  Do you think the threat is as real as the author does?  Is it worth trying to spread the word by sharing information about the webinars far and wide?  If it’s not worth it, why the hell not?  If we want any kind of functioning democracy, we cannot just roll over.

Open thread.

Can SCOTUS Be Kept from Doing Their Worst?Post + Comments (99)

Fighting for Virginia – Balloon Juice Angel and 6x Matching!

by WaterGirl|  August 3, 20259:30 am| 26 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Targeted Political Fundraising 2025-26

Announcing 2 simultaneous Balloon Juice Angel match opportunities this morning.

Sunday Angel #1 will match up to $100 per person when you tell us about your donation in the comments or by email.

Sunday Angel #2 will match $250 for the first 4 people who donate $250 and let us know in the comments or by email! (update,  done!)

I certainly can’t afford that – but it’s a one-time opportunity to turn $250 into $1,500, and they are betting that there might be 4 of you who might jump at that chance.  Nothing ventured, nothing gained.  (update, and there were!)

As we start another round of fundraising for Four Directions in Virginia, I want to share a bit of inspiration that one of our BJ peeps shared with me.

The trick is that we have to not give up.  To not tell ourselves that it’s hopeless.  To not let them beat the fight out of us with their unrelenting evil.


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THIS IS ALSO AN OPEN THREAD.

Fighting for Virginia – Balloon Juice Angel and 6x Matching!Post + Comments (26)

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