This is sort of a follow-up to my post yesterday about a Democrat in Central Florida flipping a statehouse seat. Scott Maxwell is an Orlando Sentinel columnist — a centrist who plays it exactly down the middle, or at least did until Florida Republicans went full crypto-fascist.
Here are excerpts from Maxwell’s column on the special election:
Something weird is happening in Florida. Democrats are winning. For the first time in years.
When Navy veteran Tom Keen surprised the political establishment Tuesday, flipping a legislative district from red to blue, it was huge.
How huge? Well, the last time voters cast ballots in this district, Republicans won by 11 points. On Tuesday, they lost by 3. That’s a big swing — especially in a race where Republicans massively outspent their opponents.
More significantly, from a big-picture standpoint, this Democratic flip in Central Florida comes on the heels of other big, surprising Democratic swings…
As one who has covered politics in this state for more than a quarter of a century, I can tell you this is not normal. For years, Florida Democrats have racked up one loss after another. Sometimes by wee margins. Often by landslides. But almost always consistent losses.
Yet now — after a few years of a GOP supermajority in Tallahassee fuming about Disney, drag queens and rainbow flags while insurance rates skyrocketed and SAT scores dropped — voters seem ready for a course correction…
Again, I still think it’s way too early to predict a blue wave in Florida in 2024. It’s hard to overstate the money-advantage Republicans will have. Democrats haven’t unseated a Republican from statewide office in more than three decades. If Trump is on the ballot in November, he’ll energize the Republican base in a way few other candidates can. And it’s worth re-emphasizing that Democrats still aren’t turning out at the polls the way Republicans do. A slightly higher percentage of Republicans still cast ballots Tuesday.
But for now, we’re seeing a trend that says moderate voters have had enough of the culture chaos and are looking to balance the scales a bit — which is something Florida hasn’t seen in a long, long time.
I share Maxwell’s wait-and-see attitude about Florida’s fate, but I think he’s right to notice a growing backlash. As usual, Florida is the lag-wagon. The “red wave” we were told was coming for Democrats nationally in 2022 actually materialized here, which was the whole premise of the DeSantis 2024 candidacy.
Well, we can all see how that’s going. After DeSantis joins Tim Pawlenty, Scott Walker and Jeb Bush in the dustbin of media-created Republican presidential candidates who flopped spectacularly, voters will take a look at the actual GOP juggernaut — the defendant who’s currently acting out in court like a juvenile delinquent while jurors consider damage awards for his sexual assault victim’s successful defamation suit.
Maybe its naive of me, but outside the cult, I don’t think Trump is making a great case for his candidacy in court, and I suspect that will become clear once the pretenders are shooed offstage. As in Florida, we’ll see.
Open thread.
Something Weird in Florida (Open Thread)Post + Comments (76)