War
War For Ukraine: Update 2
Just a brief house keeping note at top. If I keep doing these updates, I’m going to title them War for Ukraine from here on out with the update # after the colon. I am not going to retitle the first one I did two nights ago.
About an hour ago Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, warned that Russian forces are closing on the city:
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko has warned Russian troops are “very close to the capital” and predicted “a difficult night” for the city.
“The situation now is threatening for Kyiv, no exaggeration,” he said on his Telegram channel. “The night and the morning will be difficult.”— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) February 25, 2022
? Air raid warning in Kyiv. And missiles being fired on the capital. I’ve counted three large strikes in past five minutes. Watching from my window and seeing the sky light up; roar of explosions reverberating across the city.
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 25, 2022
President Zelenskyy has both tweeted out video of him in Kyiv to knock back Russian disinformation that he’d abandoned the city and its defense and tweeted that he’d had a discussion with President Biden about next steps:
President, his Chief of Staff, the Prime Minister, head of the Servant of the People are all in Kyiv.
We will win! ?????? pic.twitter.com/1ae8hZnthC
— Oleksiy Sorokin (@mrsorokaa) February 25, 2022
Resupply of weaponry is continuing to flow into Ukraine:
⚡️BREAKING: Kyiv home guard, the 112th Territorial Defense Brigade, now operate British-provided NLAWs.
Welcome to hell, motherfuckers. pic.twitter.com/9OVuQhQkTC— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) February 25, 2022
About four hours ago, AMB (ret) McFaul, tweeted that NATO has (finally!) activated the NATO Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VHRJTF)
Hearing now that NATO's Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) has been activated. Excellent news.
— Michael McFaul (@McFaul) February 25, 2022
The NATO Very High Readiness Joint Task Force is:
The NATO Response Force (NRF) is a highly ready and technologically advanced multinational force made up of land, air, maritime and Special Operations Forces (SOF) components that the Alliance can deploy quickly, wherever needed. In addition to its operational role, the NRF can be used for greater cooperation in education and training, increased exercises, support for disaster relief and better use of technology.
A powerful package
NATO Allies decided at the 2014 Wales Summit to enhance the NRF by creating a “spearhead force” within it, known as the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force or VJTF. This enhanced NRF is one of the measures of the Readiness Action Plan (RAP) agreed by Allies to respond to the changes in the security environment.
The enhanced NATO Response Force includes:
- a command and control element: Operational command of the NRF alternates between Allied Joint Force Commands in Brunssum and Naples;
- the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF): This NRF element – about 20,000 strong – includes a multinational land brigade of around 5,000 troops and air, maritime and SOF components. Leading elements are ready to move within two to three days. Allies assume the lead role for the VJTF on a rotational basis;
Rather than just give a run down of events, I wanted to provide a bit of analysis now that Ukraine has withstood the first two days of the invasion. That’ll be after the jump.
Late Night Open Thread: Anti-Putin Protests in Russia
Thousands of Russians took to the streets to protest the invasion of Ukraine.
Some 1,702 people in 53 Russian cities were detained, at least 940 of them in Moscow, according to OVD-Info, a rights group that tracks political arrests. https://t.co/7OXJWWjTNQ
— The Associated Press (@AP) February 24, 2022
protests across 53 russian cities, more than 1700 people detained tonight. the regime did not bother with counter-protests. I wonder if Putin underestimated just how unpopular this would be
— Seva (@SevaUT) February 24, 2022
I suppose when you lose a million a people in excess mortality to covid and no one protests you start to think of yourself as invulnerable
— Seva (@SevaUT) February 24, 2022
I also want to stress what those numbers don't capture, which is how anti-war sentiment on russian social media has been. twitter is not representative bc it attracts more liberal russians anyway but even previously apolitical people are united in condemnation and shame
— Seva (@SevaUT) February 24, 2022
Pushkin Square, maybe less than 1000 meters from Red Square and the Kremlin, is the cite of a significant protest. These people know the risks of challenging the regime. They’re on the street in-spite of major personal costs. pic.twitter.com/bYEfbO91xG
— Alexander S. Vindman (@AVindman) February 24, 2022
People marching through central Moscow this evening chanting “No to War!” pic.twitter.com/BTQ3ZOGTan
— Matthew Luxmoore (@mjluxmoore) February 24, 2022
People attend an anti-war protest in Saint Petersburg, Russia, amid Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
LIVE UPDATES: https://t.co/rxHToef8pN pic.twitter.com/qetjJqGPOb
— ABC News (@ABC) February 24, 2022
Late Night Open Thread: Anti-Putin Protests in RussiaPost + Comments (47)
Telling it like it is…
I started following then-Biden campaign aide (current deputy press secretary) Andrew Bates on Twitter after seeing him swat down some dumb Trump bullshit about Ukraine with extreme prejudice in the run-up to the election. He hasn’t lost his touch.
Two nauseating, fearful pigs who hate what America stands for and whose every action is driven by their their own weakness and insecurity, rubbing their snouts together and celebrating as innocent people lose their lives. https://t.co/GrZcOzXJ8g
— Andrew Bates (@AndrewJBates46) February 24, 2022
I hope no one makes him delete that tweet. Open thread!
Just Sit This One Out, Bruh
I see a lot of motherfuckers who should not be opening their piehole on the Russian invasion of Ukraine talking up a storm, and there are a lot of people who should just sit this one out.
Thursday Morning Open Thread: So It Begins
People singing the Ukrainian national anthem in Kramatorsk, Donetsk oblast, today in resistance to the Russian aggression. Source of the video: NEXTA. pic.twitter.com/GP3tD0vX7h
— Kateryna Zarembo (@KaterynaZarembo) February 23, 2022
#UPDATE US President Biden says "world will hold Russia accountable" over its attack on Ukraine that he warns will cause "catastrophic loss of life".
Biden says will address US public Thursday to outline "consequences" for Russia, calling the attack "unprovoked and unjustified" pic.twitter.com/aMh1WclMf8
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) February 24, 2022
The prayers of the world are with the people of Ukraine tonight as they suffer an unprovoked and unjustified attack by Russian military forces. President Putin has chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering. https://t.co/Q7eUJ0CG3k
— President Biden (@POTUS) February 24, 2022
President Biden’s speech will happen tomorrow after he meets virtually with G7 leaders at 9 a.m. Says he will announce the further consequences the U.S and allies will impose on Russia “for this needless act of aggression against Ukraine and global peace and security.”
— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) February 24, 2022
Thursday Morning Open Thread: So It BeginsPost + Comments (298)
Ukraine Update
Apparently someone asked for an Ukraine update.
The NOTAMs (Notice to Airmen) declaring a no fly zone for civilian aviation over eastern Ukraine went up about five hours ago.
NOTAMS over the entirety of the eastern border of Ukraine. https://t.co/FBmgJTggya
— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) February 23, 2022
This indicates that Russia is intending to do something offensive from that direction.
About seven hours ago Ukrainian officials warned of a Russian attack on a chemical plant in Crimea that was intended to be run as a false flag to be blamed on the Ukrainians.
Now reports coming in — here from Ukrainian MP @marianabezuhla who sits on parliament's Nat Sec committee — that "an explosion is planned at the Crimean Titan chemical plant [in Armyansk], in which the Ukrainian armed forces are to be accused." https://t.co/h4LCkE6SZG
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 23, 2022
A little over an hour ago Putin declared war on Ukraine:
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia is undertaking a "special military operation" in Ukraine saying his goal is to demilitarize and denazify the country but not occupy it.
— Paul Sonne (@PaulSonne) February 24, 2022
This thread has full details on Putin’s declaration of war, but it boils down to invasion, occupation, pacification, regime change, and installation of a puppet government.
Forty minutes ago President Biden responded to Putin’s declaration of war:
New statement from Biden: "President Putin has chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering. Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring" pic.twitter.com/icLkU1DvcT
— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) February 24, 2022
I’ve seen reports on social media of explosions in a number of Ukrainian cities including Kyiv. Here’s a live feed from Kharkiv.
The Ukrainians are smartly protecting their airports:
⚡️Ukrainian airports in Kharkiv, Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia are closed until morning and are blocking runways in case of possible attack, according to ZN media outlet.
The airport in Kherson is to be closed next.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 24, 2022
This appears to be a full scale invasion, not merely a reinforcement of the occupation of eastern Ukraine. Unlike 2014, the Ukrainians are far better prepared. They have far better capabilities. They have 8 years of combat experience in holding off further Russian incursions. I do not know, however, if they can withstand a full fledged Russian invasion that intends to take and hold Ukraine. I am in complete agreement with the assessment that without significantly more assistance, the Ukrainians need to adopt an Unconventional Warfare approach rather than meet the Russians head on. They need to draw the Russians into the cities and turn this into a three block at a time war. To do that, the Ukrainians will have to be willing to absorb significant casualties.
Putin seems to have decided to go all in. The discussion of whether he is physically and/or mentally ill are irrelevant at this point. I think it is far more likely that he has simply spent every day for the past 30 years being consumed by his belief that the fall of the Soviet Union and the diminution of Russia was solely the fault of the US and its lackeys in the EU and NATO. And that after forty years of stewing over this belief it has finally consumed him.
So now we wait. We wait to see what Putin does. We wait to see what the coming dawn in Ukraine brings. We wait to see what President Biden and our EU and NATO allies are willing to do and able to do in response.
If you’re the religious type, say a prayer for the Ukrainians tonight. If you’re not just keep good thoughts. This is going to get far, far, far worse before it gets better.
Open thread!
PS: If you want a list of people to follow regarding what is happening in Ukraine, use the list that Gin & Tonic put together for us last month. It can be found at this link.