According to a tweet from Cher, Carrie Fisher’s ashes rest in an urn that looks like a giant Prozac capsule:
She is my hero forever.
It’s raining here tonight. We’re just hanging out on the porch listening to it fall. You?
Open thread!
by Betty Cracker| 181 Comments
This post is in: Open Threads
According to a tweet from Cher, Carrie Fisher’s ashes rest in an urn that looks like a giant Prozac capsule:
She is my hero forever.
It’s raining here tonight. We’re just hanging out on the porch listening to it fall. You?
Open thread!
by John Cole| 67 Comments
This post is in: John Cole Presents "This Fucking Old House"
And after giving my tipping thread, here are some pictures to explain why I will not be eating out until 2019 or so. You all saw the door the other day, but here is a refresher:
Here is what you see as soon as you enter:
You’ll notice a) your bearded host modeling the finest in Penguins shirts and overalls, but more importantly, b) the color change from the left side of the arch, to the inside of the arch into the living room. Also, the flooring is done.
Here is what the other side of the front door looks like with the wood restored:
The next view is from inside the living room, with the arch you just saw to the left, giving you a view of the fireplace, the dining room, and the flooring:
We’ll finish painting that little area tomorrow, but we had so much stuff there we couldn’t get to it. It really gives you an idea of how dingy and drab the color used to be. Here’s a close-up of the fireplace, which is a project that will be dealt with in a year or so when I am liquid again. I think the flooring looks really good there and they did a great job:
This picture is from the living room, almost under the arch, with the fireplace on the left, looking into the dining room and the little half bath. You can see what the floor looked like before, and you can see the blue of the half bath, which is the same as the blue of the kitchen.
Finally, here is a reverse view of me standing in front of the doorway to the half bath, looking back through the dining room and into the living room:
So what is left on the knock list? A lot of little stuff, with the only major projects being the dining room flooring, which should get done tomorrow, and the installation of the vent and hood above the oven in the kitchen. After that, we have to:
Install upstairs toilet.
Install half bath pedestal sink and cupboard
Install all the pulls for the cabinets
Molding
Finish the stairs to the second floor
Install railings (they’ve all been stained and varnished)
Have the plumber do his work (install sink faucet, hook up inline filter to fridge, gas line to stove, futz around with the fireplace and see if it is functional).
But for now, most of the major stuff is done.
This post is in: OLD MAN YELLS AT CLOUDS
This is one of my major pet peeves about our society, so please allow me a moment to rant. I stumbled across this in the Washington Post:
People like this exist, and I hate them. I already hated them halfway through, but when I got to the “if they wash my car” I wanted to hunt them down so I could spit in their food and save the wait staff from getting fired.
Now I am not going to get into a debate about whether our current system of tipping makes sense, because it doesn’t. Wait staff should be paid a salary. But I doubt we are going to change that, so here is my own personal rule of tipping. Always tip 20%, at least. If you go with a large group that takes up a lot of the time, tip 20%. If you are alone, then definitely tip 20%. And if your bill was super cheap, like say 6-7 bucks, just give them a ten.
These people work hard, bust their ass, and there are a whole lot of good reasons why you should tip well:
1.) They are not paid minimum wage.
2.) They have to deal with you. Now you may think you are a fucking ray of sunshine and source of eternal joy, but I am here to tell you that you are not.
3.) Most of the “mistakes” aren’t their fault. The cook fucked it up, their boss is a jackass who has a stupid system in place, they are overbooked, etc.
4.) They have to deal with you, and as mentioned before, you suck. You really do.
5.) Often times their owners find ways to fuck them on the wages they do earn.
6.) They work horrible hours, have shit sleep patterns, and almost never have a stable or normal schedule.
7.) If they are female, they are being sexually harassed all day every day. Trust me on this. And it probably isn’t just the customers doing it.
8.) It’s hard work. It really is. I was a waiter, a bus boy, a doorman, a bartender, a cook, and a barback at different times in my life. By far, the hardest job in there is being a waiter. You’re constantly on your feet, being yelled at by everyone, and they have to deal with you, who really suck even though you still don’t believe me.
9.) The absolute best way to put money into the economy is to tip people. These people will spend it.
10.) It makes you feel good.
11.) It ensures that you will get good service the next time you come back.
12.) When you tip appropriately or overtip, they aren’t getting rich. It’s probably just making up for the degenerate scumbags above who think 10% is appropriate.
13.) They probably don’t have health insurance. I remember hoping for a busy night when I was a waiter so I could afford a prescription for an antibiotic and cold medicine.
14.) MANY MANY MORE REASONS
Now look, I know not everyone feels this way, but my attitude is if I am eating out I should be able to pay 20% or better. If I can’t, and a couple extra dollars is going to break the bank, I should be eating at home. Most people tip 15%, which is the norm, but I have my own rules. Obviously there are different rules for booze, but since don’t drink anymore I am not up to date and don’t want to say anything.
So, for all these reasons and more, if you go out tonight, tip your staff well. I sometimes even write notes on the bill- “Service was great, thank you” or something of the sort.
And yes, I know this sounds strange coming from someone who seems grumpy and angry all the time. That’s internal. I believe in being decent to people in public because being in public is horrible because, well, you are there. And you suck.
by Adam L Silverman| 102 Comments
This post is in: Domestic Politics, Election 2016, Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Politics, Silverman on Security
The Office of the Secretary of National Intelligence has released its report on Russian interference in the 2016 US elections. The full report can be found here. Or accessed below:
I haven’t had a chance to read it yet.
Here are the key findings (bold emphasis is in the actual report, not added by me):
Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections
ICA 2017-01D
6 January 2017
Key Judgments Russian efforts to influence the 2016 US presidential election represent the most recent expression of Moscow’s longstanding desire to undermine the US-led liberal democratic order, but these activities demonstrated a significant escalation in directness, level of activity, and scope of effort compared to previous operations. We assess Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign in 2016 aimed at the US presidential election. Russia’s goals were to undermine public faith in the US democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency. We further assess Putin and the Russian Government developed a clear preference for President-elect Trump. We have high confidence in these judgments.
We also assess Putin and the Russian Government aspired to help President-elect Trump’s election chances when possible by discrediting Secretary Clinton and publicly contrasting her unfavorably to him. All three agencies agree with this judgment. CIA and FBI have high confidence in this judgment; NSA has moderate confidence.
Moscow’s approach evolved over the course of the campaign based on Russia’s understanding of the electoral prospects of the two main candidates. When it appeared to Moscow that Secretary Clinton was likely to win the election, the Russian influence campaign began to focus more on undermining her future presidency.
Further information has come to light since Election Day that, when combined with Russian behavior since early November 2016, increases our confidence in our assessments of Russian motivations and goals.
Moscow’s influence campaign followed a Russian messaging strategy that blends covert intelligence operations—such as cyber activity—with overt efforts by Russian Government agencies, state-funded media, third-party intermediaries, and paid social media users or “trolls.” Russia, like its Soviet predecessor, has a history of conducting covert influence campaigns focused on US presidential elections that have used intelligence officers and agents and press placements to disparage candidates perceived as hostile to the Kremlin.
Russia’s intelligence services conducted cyber operations against targets associated with the 2016 US presidential election, including targets associated with both major US political parties.
We assess with high confidence that Russian military intelligence (General Staff Main Intelligence Directorate or GRU) used the Guccifer 2.0 persona and DCLeaks.com to release US victim data This report is a declassified version of a highly classified assessment; its conclusions are identical to those in the highly classified assessment but this version does not include the full supporting information on key elements of the influence campaign. iii obtained in cyber operations publicly and in exclusives to media outlets and relayed material to WikiLeaks.
Russian intelligence obtained and maintained access to elements of multiple US state or local electoral boards. DHS assesses that the types of systems Russian actors targeted or compromised were not involved in vote tallying.
Russia’s state-run propaganda machine contributed to the influence campaign by serving as a platform for Kremlin messaging to Russian and international audiences.
We assess Moscow will apply lessons learned from its Putin-ordered campaign aimed at the US presidential election to future influence efforts worldwide, including against US allies and their election processes.
Joint Publication 2-0/ Joint Intelligence (JP 2-0) explains analytic confidence as:
APPENDIX A
INTELLIGENCE CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN ANALYTIC JUDGMENTS
a. Intelligence analysts should distinguish between what is known with confidence based on the facts of the situation and the OE and what are untested assumptions. Intelligence can be facts that have been observed, or it can be a conclusion based on facts of such certainty that it is considered to be knowledge. Intelligence can also be conclusions and estimates deduced from incomplete sets of facts or induced from potentially related facts. The commander’s determination of appropriate objectives and operations may rest on knowing whether intelligence is “fact” or “assumption,” and knowing the particular logic used to develop an intelligence estimate, as well as knowing the confidence level the J-2 places on the provided intelligence and related analytic conclusions.
b. The following chart (Figure A-1) is intended to illustrate confidence in analytic judgments intelligence personnel may use to indicate a subjective judgment regarding the degree of confidence they place on the analytic conclusions contained in intelligence products. Confidence levels may be used by intelligence producers to present analysis and conclusions to decision makers in a uniform, consistent manner.
Expressing Confidence In Analytic Judgments Confidence in a judgment is based on three factors: number of key assumptions required, the credibility and diversity of sourcing in the knowledge base, and the strength of argumentation. Each factor should be assessed independently and then in concert with the other factors to determine the confidence level. Multiple judgments in a product may contain varying levels of confidence. Confidence levels are stated as Low, Moderate, and High. Phrases such as “we judge” or “we assess” are used to call attention to a product’s key assessment. Supporting assessments may use likelihood terms or expressions to distinguish them from assumptions or reporting. Below are guidelines for likeliness terms and the confidence levels with which they correspond.
Low
- Uncorroborated information from good or marginal sources
- Many assumptions
- Mostly weak logical inferences, minimal methods application
- Glaring intelligence gaps exist
Terms/Expressions
- Possible
- Could, may, might
- Cannot judge, unclear
Moderate
- Partially corroborated information from good sources
- Several assumptions
- Mix of strong and weak inferences and methods
- Minimum intelligence gaps exist
Terms/Expressions
- Likely, unlikely
- Probable, improbable
- Anticipate, appear
High
- Well-corroborated information from proven sources
- Minimal assumptions
- Strong logical inferences and methods
- No or minor intelligence gaps exist
Terms/Expressions
- Will, will not
- Almost certainly, remote
- Highly likely, highly unlikely
- Expect, assert, affirm
by Adam L Silverman| 78 Comments
This post is in: America, Domestic Politics, Open Threads, Silverman on Security
The Broward County Sheriff’s Office (BCSO) is reporting that they are conducting an active search at Ft. Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport. Apparently there is concern that there may be a second shooter.
Active search: Unconfirmed reports of addt'l shots fired on airport property.
— Broward Sheriff (@browardsheriff) January 6, 2017
The TSA has tweeted that there is still an active shooter, which has people concerned that there is. It is important to remember that the TSA is not in charge of what is going on right now at the Ft. Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport. The Broward County Sheriff’s Office is the agency in control of the response. Information coming from sources other than BCSO may not be accurate.
The confirmed shooter is in custody. MSNBC is reporting that his name is Esteban Santiago, that he’s 26, was born in New Jersey, didn’t say anything – just opened fire, and that he has a military ID, but there is no word yet on potential motive.
As always: this is going to be a fluid situation and developing story. So information is going to change and, possibly, quickly.
Updated at 3:15 PM
The Broward County Mayor, Barbara Sharief, has just told MSNBC that the only shooter, who she wouldn’t name, is in custody and has been for some time. The ongoing BCSO operations are because someone reported a suspicious noise in the parking garage at Ft. Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport. So the BCSO is clearing the parking garage and other areas out of an abundance of caution.
Updated at 3:25 PM EDT
Media briefing will be in the upper level, between Term. 1 and Term. 2 at 3:20 pm.
— Broward Sheriff (@browardsheriff) January 6, 2017
If I can find a link to a video feed, provided there is a video feed, I’ll post it.
Updated at 3:35 PM EDT:
.@browardsheriff Scott Israel: Suspect was taken into custody w/o incident. pic.twitter.com/mSeluTPrcK
— Broward Sheriff (@browardsheriff) January 6, 2017
Updated at 5:15 PM EDT
NEW: In Nov. 2016, FLL suspect walked into FBI office in Anchorage, claiming he was being forced to fight for ISIS, sources tell CBS News.
— CBS News (@CBSNews) January 6, 2017
MORE: In 2011 or 2012, suspect was investigated for child porn, but there was not enough evidence to prosecute, sources tell CBS News.
— CBS News (@CBSNews) January 6, 2017
And now it gets ugly, interesting, and bizarre.
by Adam L Silverman| 182 Comments
This post is in: Election 2016, Open Threads, Politics
Breaking: declassified review of #Russian election-related hacking to be released as soon as this afternoon – source tells #CNN
— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) January 6, 2017
This situation is now increasingly fluid. For whatever reasons, either the Administration, the DNI, or both in consultation with each other have decided to not wait until Monday afternoon at 2 PM to release the unclassified/declassified report on Russian interference in the 2016 US elections.
by David Anderson| 37 Comments
This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance, Contraception Clusterfuck, Free Markets Solve Everything, Fuck The Poor, The War On Women, Vagina Outrage, Women's Rights Are Human Rights, Zombie-Eyed Granny Starver, Bring On The Meteor, Nobody could have predicted
We want to do evidence based care. We want to do things that work and avoid things that don’t work. This sounds simple. Let’s look at two very good natural experiments on unintended pregnancy rates:
Since 2008, Colorado has successfully increased access to family planning services throughout the state, particularly for the most effective contraceptive methods, such as intrauterine devices (IUDs) and implants.
- The Colorado Family Planning Initiative has increased health care provider education and training and reduced costs for more expensive contraceptive options, enabling more than 30,000 women in the state to choose long-acting reversible contraception….
- When contraception, particularly the long-acting methods, became more readily available in Colorado between 2009 and 2013, the abortion rate fell 42 percent among all women ages 15 to 19 and 18 percent among women ages 20 to 24.
- Colorado is a national leader in the use of long-acting reversible contraception, and reducing teen pregnancy and repeat pregnancies.
- Teen birth rates in our state have declined more rapidly than in any other state or the nation as a whole.
- The birth rate for Medicaid-eligible women ages 15 to 24 dropped sharply from 2010 to 2012, resulting in an estimated $49 million to $111 million avoided expenses in Medicaid birth-related costs alone.
More reliable and effective contraception was made available to Colorado women who had the choice to elect Long Acting Reverisble Contraception (LARC) or do something else. A significant number of women elected to use LARC and the increased autonomy and reliability produced amazingly good results.
Texas
8c) When Texas defunded Planned Parenthood, births paid for by Medicaid rose 27%. Births are a lot more expensive than birth control. pic.twitter.com/VJgGvHVHro
— Caroline O. (@RVAwonk) January 5, 2017
Reducing contraceptive availability led to higher abortion rates and higher unplanned pregnancies. Earlier live births have massively negative multi-generational repercussions for both the parents and kids.
The evidence strong suggests that significant improvements in quality of life can be made and significant expenditures reduced if contraception is made readily available.
And guess what Congress will consider to be a high priority:
House Speaker Paul Ryan announced Thursday that Republicans will move to strip all federal funding for Planned Parenthood as part of the process they are using early this year to dismantle Obamacare.
Wahoo… the evidence will strongly support the hypothesis that this policy will lead to more unintended pregnancies, more abortions and far worse outcomes for far more Americans.
Evidence based policy making — Hoo Yaa