(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Quick housekeeping note: Ruby is back to her normal self. Rosie is still doing well. She goes for her next chemo treatment tomorrow, so I’ll have more to info on her condition tomorrow evening. Thank you to everyone for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations. They are all most welcome.
Iranian President Raisi, as well as Iran’s Foreign Minister and several other Iranian officials, are all still missing as a result of an emergency hard landing by Raisi’s helicopter earlier today. The weather was bad when it went down and has gotten worse ever since. Rescue crews from Iran are on site and Turkey, and Russia are assisting in various ways. From all credible reports the helicopter made a hard landing, but people on board, such as the prayer leader from Tabriz, had been in contact with Iranian authorities. The biggest concerns at this point are because of the weather and the terrain. It is cold, damp, the rain has turned to snow, and those on the downed helicopter are in forested mountains.
Your daily Baykraktar:
BREAKING — Turkey’s Bayraktar Akinci drone detected a heat source, which is thought to be the wreckage of the helicopter carrying the Iranian President Raisi, and shared its coordinates with the Iranian authorities, Anadolu reports pic.twitter.com/HqI77lH8UM
— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) May 20, 2024
https://tenor.com/bF5X9.gif
One of the reasons that Russia was able to make some initial quick gains in Kharkiv Oblast is because they had worked out a way to jam the Ukrainian’s Starlinks!
Russia seems to have made a counter-Starlink breakthrough & used it on the eve of its Kharkiv attack this month. “Its Starlink devices…failed, the first time it was knocked out completely for them since Russia’s invasion in February 2022” https://t.co/nB752J1R2K https://t.co/MUnc7I6Sa9
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) May 18, 2024
The Washington Post has the details: (emphasis mine)
Its Starlink devices — satellite internet the Ukrainian military relies on for basic communication — failed, the first time it was knocked out completely for them since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.
“We were left at a certain point completely blind,” said a drone unit commander in the brigade. The Post agreed to identify him by his call sign, Artist, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol.
“This was the biggest problem, we didn’t see how they were moving, we only worked through radio or through phones where they still worked,” Artist, a 53-year-old sergeant, said. The drone feeds, he said, “simply disappeared.”
But Russia’s battlefield gains in recent days were not only a result of Ukrainian shortfalls.
Begrudgingly, Ukrainian troops admit that their enemy has gotten smarter and adapted, especially with technological advancements such as electronic warfare — a sharp contrast with the first year of the invasion, when Russia’s own blunders and overconfidence allowed the Ukrainians to hold key cities and later liberate large swaths of territory in successful counteroffensives.
The new Russian advances, in Kharkiv and in the neighboring Donetsk region, have prompted questions about the viability of Ukraine’s defense — not only if Kyiv can fulfill its promise of expelling all invaders, but also if Russia will soon overpower Ukraine’s forces and seize more territory.
The latest assault on the Kharkiv border has forced Ukraine to redirect some reserves north, potentially imperiling other positions.
Even as they watched the Russians building up forces, Artist, the drone commander in the 125th Brigade, said the Ukrainians were largely unable to construct the kind of fortified defense lines now being emphasized by the government and by military commanders.
The Russians’ own layered web of “dragon’s teeth” antitank pyramid blocks, mines and concrete-reinforced trenches proved effective against Ukraine’s disappointing southeastern counteroffensive last summer.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky even visited the Kharkiv border in April to inspect the newly reinforced defenses. But Artist and other soldiers said that every time the units stationed here tried to build fortified lines, the Russians — using their own reconnaissance drones — would monitor their activity and fire on them.
Excavators and other engineering equipment were needed but not brought in because it would have been easily destroyed by the Russians.
Especially with the U.S. aid lagging, Ukrainian soldiers said they lacked the means to fire back and give themselves the time to build stronger defenses. The Ukrainians were also prohibited by the White House from using U.S.-provided weapons to strike Russia despite the Russians firing at them from across the border.
Artist said that soldiers in his unit would dig with shovels at night. “We tried to do what we could, but it’s not the same,” he said.
“Because the soil is very heavy here, it’s machines that can dig through that and machinery that can install concrete fortifications,” he added. “We weren’t able to do that. Ammunition, artillery could have protected us. … People would’ve been able to work in those moments. But sadly, we have wasted a lot. More than half a year has been wasted because we weren’t able to do this.”
More at the link!
There are two issues here. The first is that the Ukrainians rely on Starlink and if Starlink goes down, is jammed, or Musk decides to screw the Ukrainians, they are immediately at a disadvantage. The reliance on Starlink, which is facilitated by a very large DOD contract, has created a single point of failure. Right now it has led to Russian gains in Kharkiv. Over time it could lead to Russian gains elsewhere. It also demonstrates a strategic failure on the part of the DOD. Shoveling more money at Musk and his companies while treating him like a head of state isn’t going to solve enduring US defense problems. All it is going to do is create more singular points of failure.
The second issue is that we are continuing to see the effects of the congressional GOP’s intransigence and hostility towards Ukraine combined with the Biden administration’s strategic confusion regarding Ukraine ripple through time and space. We are back in for want of a nail territory. People are complaining of the failure of the Ukrainian MOD and general staff to ensure the layered defenses were emplaced. It is, of course, almost impossible to do that when you cannot defend your personnel trying to emplace them.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
The Occupier Fails to Achieve Its Goal of Stretching Our Forces Thin and Thus Weakening Ukraine – Address by the President
19 May 2024 – 19:19
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Today, as every day, our primary focus is on all areas of hostilities – the entire defense line. There was a report from the Commander-in-Chief – General Syrskyi is on the frontline, directly in our combat brigades. As a result of these days – of the whole week – we have secured stronger positions in the Kharkiv region. The 57th brigade, the 82nd air assault brigade – thank you, warriors! At the same time, our forces are quite effectively destroying the occupier in the Donetsk directions – in particular, in the areas of Chasiv Yar and other locations. In fact, the occupier fails to achieve its goal of stretching our forces thin and thus weakening Ukraine on a wide front from the Kharkiv to the Donetsk regions. I thank each of our soldiers, each sergeant, each officer who courageously and steadfastly fulfill combat orders and hold our positions. I would like to especially recognize the 41st brigade, first of all, the DIU special units “Kraken” and “Artan,” and the National Guard units for battles these days. Thank you, guys, for Chasiv Yar – for destroying Russian equipment and repelling the assaults! And I would also like to thank the 225th separate assault battalion – well done!
Second. I am thankful to all our units of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and the National Police, every medical worker, and all the repair crews involved in eliminating the consequences of Russian strikes. Brutal Russian shelling and missile attacks, attacks with guided aerial bombs continue every day. Sumy region, Kharkiv region. Donetsk region, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv region, cities of Dnipropetrovsk region. Whatever the difficulties, there is a proper response of our emergency services – of all those who save lives – everywhere. Today, I would like to recognize the rescuers of the Kharkiv region who have shown themselves in helping our people – Andriy Plakhonin, Artem Kostyria, Maksym Tomko, Vladyslav Kasyaniuk, Andriy Skyba, Stanislav Neshcheretnyi – all the employees of the State Emergency Service in the Kharkiv region. Thank you! I am also grateful to Svitlana Shovkova, a doctor at the Vovchansk Emergency Medical Department. I am also grateful to the rescuers of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in the Sumy region – Yevhen Kostrov, Andriy Olkhovskyi, Serhiy Kovbasa, Ihor Ponomarenko. I would like to thank the feldshers of the emergency teams working in the Sumy region who have distinguished themselves over the past few days and weeks – Maryna Bakun and Oleh Yefymenko – for their dedication. And the repair crew members who are restoring normalcy after the Russian shelling in the Sumy region – Oleksandr Stoliarenko, Serhiy Kyslyi and all your colleagues. I am grateful to everyone who helps our entire country to stand against Russian terror and protect lives by fulfilling their professional duties. I am grateful to everyone who fights for our country and who helps others to get through this difficult time!
Glory to Ukraine!
Washington, DC:
They did ask [the United States] for help to strike into Russia,’’ Air Force Gen. CQ Brown Jr.told reporters traveling with him to Europe. “It wasn’t specific to a weapons system but additional help in striking the Russians.” https://t.co/ugK5xW2mSj
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) May 18, 2024
Because the WSJ is paywalled, here are the details via Militarnyi:
Ukraine has asked the United States to help identify targets in Russia for Kyiv to strike using its own weapons.
It has also asked the U.S. to lift restrictions on the use of American-provided weapons against military objectives inside Russia.
The Wall Street Journal reported on this with reference to U.S. and defense officials.
The request from Ukraine was received last week and is currently being considered by the Biden administration.
At a briefing on May 17, John Kirby, Coordinator of the National Security Council at the White House, said that Washington does not currently support helping Kyiv select targets or using US weapons to strike Russian territory.
“We do not encourage or support attacks on Russian soil, which has been our longstanding policy,” Kirby said.
According to the media, the United States provided Ukraine with ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles and other weapons systems on the condition that Ukraine would not use them to strike targets in Russia.
It is noted that this caveat, which Kyiv agreed to as a condition for receiving weapons, was intended to reduce the risk of the conflict escalating into a direct confrontation between the United States and Russia.
The Pentagon previously also stated that it believes that the weapons provided by the United States to Ukraine as part of military assistance should be used within Ukrainian territory.
Sabrina Singh, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary in the Department of Defense, stated that during a briefing.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi reacted to restrictions on the use of Western weapons by the Ukrainian Defense Forces to strike Russian soil.
According to Zelenskyi, there should be no restrictions on the use of Western weapons, as this is not a matter of Ukraine’s offensive, but a matter of defense against Russian attacks.
Right now the Russians can mass personnel and equipment that will be used against Ukraine just across the border, but Ukraine is not allowed to use the US supplied munitions to destroy them until they actually cross into Ukraine and start destroying Ukrainian infrastructure and killing Ukrainians. This is just stupidity being presented as strategic genius.
Timofiy Mylovanov, the head of the Kyiv School of Economics, has some thoughts on the strategic reality in DC that the Ukrainians have figured out. Via the Thread Reader App:
Zelensky says the West doesn’t want Ukraine to win. His words are careful, but the meaning is clear.He talks about the U.S. fear of Russia loosing and thus preventing Ukraine from winning
But the implication is simple – the war will go on 1/
kyivindependent.com/zelensky-our-p…
Zelensky: ‘Our partners fear that Russia will lose this war’President Volodymyr Zelensky believes that Ukraine’s partners “are afraid of Russia losing the war” and would like Kyiv “to win in such a way that Russia does not lose,” Zelensky said in a meeting wit…https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-our-partners-fear-that-russia-will-lose-this-war/Indeed, if Ukraine gets just enough support not to lose, Russia will be tempted to keep trying. Until Putin dies! 2/Some might argue it is not true and U.S. is doing all it can to help Ukraine, but it is not easy. There are elections, a dysfunctional Congress etcTrue, but not. That’s not the reason for why the aid to Ukraine is delayed, limited, and restricted in use 3/
Remember HIMARS? Too escalatory to give to Ukraine. ATACAMS, NASAMS, tanks, artillery, drones, F16s, Patriots… it is always the same story. Eventually Ukraine gets it but only after a long delay and tons of excuses why this isn’t possible or may provoke Russia. 4/So, this is a clear policy, not an unfortunate coincidence of circumstances. The US wants to support Ukraine but not enough for it to win.But then what’s the U.S. strategy about how to end the war? 5/
My sense is that there is some vague idea that eventually Putin would be willing to negotiate and then ukraine can be divided. Of course, no one will say that publicly, but behind every closed door there are signals to be “realistic”. 6/In fact, Putin uses similar language when he talks about “the need to respect realities on the ground”. 7/I am not saying that Russia and the US are colluding to split Ukraine. Far from it. But it’s true that both Russia and the U.S. expect Ukraine to give up some territory. Russia says this directly. The US doesn’t, but it surely acts that way by restricting Ukraine’s capabilities/While I don’t agree with that outcome, let’s consider it seriously for a second. Imagine the U.S. wants to freeze the conflict at some contact line. 8/Russia wants to freeze it in such a way so it can leverage it in the future, politically or militarily. It can attack again in 5 years time. Or it can hope to impose political conditions on Ukraine that will eventually turn it into Belarus. 9/It might not succeed but it will definitely try.What does the U.S. want? A sustainable peace. So that the problem goes away. It doesn’t care about territory or people in Ukraine, but wants the fighting to stop, on whatever terms 10/
What should happen for the fighting to stop? The contact line should stop moving. Because as long as it moves both parties are engaged and will try harder. 11/But this requires giving Ukraine sufficient support so no matter how hard Russia tries, Ukraine can hold.The U.S. believes it can manage this support on day to day or month to month basis. It worries that if it gives Ukraine too much support, it will win the war 12/
The fear there if that if Russia loses it can get destabilized. And that would be very scary, clear weapons, aggressive military … the U.S. certainly has a point, although I reasonably disagree with it.13/In my view, the only way to achieve stability in the region is for Russia to loose. It has to learn that it doesn’t always win, it doesn’t always get away with whatever it does. Because otherwise it will continue to disrupt the region. 14/Anyway, even if one were to agree with the U.S. position, the way they are going about it is wrong. There is no way they can do measured weapons delivery to hold the line. Russia will outplay them. This is exactly what is happening in Kharkiv now. 15/My point is that the U.S. should become real and decide whether it wants Ukraine to win or not. If it does, it should give proper support. If it doesn’t, the there should be a realistic alternative to the war which will last “as long as it takes” [for Putin to die]XIf the US withdraws support, Ukraine might fall. Despite their rhetoric to support Ukraine “as long as it takes”, the U.S. politicians might not care that much. But they are wrong and they should. 2/If Ukraine falls, Russia will be emboldened, there will be a major refugee crises from Ukraine – we will be seeing 10s of millions of people, and Russia friendly state then will border Poland. 3/Russia will quickly turn Ukraine into a to Belarus or worse. The world will watch with horror war crimes in occupied territories. And the politicians in the West who allowed this disaster to happen will carry political responsibility.
I have written here many times that the Biden administration’s actual policy, as evidenced by what his administration is doing versus what they’re saying, is to do just enough so that Ukraine can’t lose, but not enough so that Ukraine can win. Largely either out of fear of what Putin might do if enough assistance was provided for Ukraine to win or what might happen should Putin and Russia lose. The Ukrainians are not stupid. They have also long recognized this unfortunate reality. They also recognize that they are unlikely to get much more aid from the US beyond the supplemental that finally passed. As such, they are speaking their minds instead of holding their tongues.
Sevastopol, Russian occupied Crimea:
Another bad day for the russian Black Sea Fleet.
Overnight, Ukrainian defenders destroyed a russian minesweeper Project 266M "Kovrovets".
Great job, warriors! pic.twitter.com/ol4reKtuN6— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 19, 2024
/1. In the morning Ukrainian sources reported that Russian Project 266M Kovrovets was destroyed/damaged. Soon some Russian sources began to leak information that there was indeed a damaged/destroyed Russian ship during tonight’s strikes on Sevastopol, but it was not Kovrovets,… https://t.co/6i0to5eQZt pic.twitter.com/awsCz9MXaq
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 19, 2024
/1. In the morning Ukrainian sources reported that Russian Project 266M Kovrovets was destroyed/damaged. Soon some Russian sources began to leak information that there was indeed a damaged/destroyed Russian ship during tonight’s strikes on Sevastopol, but it was not Kovrovets, but “something worth”, without going to much into details.
Now there are such claims regarding the ship that was targeted:
“Project 22800 Karakurt “Cyclone” was hit. Information from the source. Requires additional confirmation.
It is reported that tonight, May 19, 2024, a missile attack was carried out on a small missile ship of Project 22800 “Cyclone” in the port of Sevastopol.
The strike was carried out by two ATACMS ballistic missiles.
As a result of the strike, 6 servicemen of the Russian Black Sea Fleet were killed and 11 more were injured.
The ship was sunk.”
A quick boxing/prize fighting update:
This.
Is.
Ukraine!! https://t.co/wTVwrWkuyI— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 19, 2024
Not sure where this is in Ukraine, but I expect it is Sumy Oblast:
Shaheds in the morning pic.twitter.com/osqPVj2fLs
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 19, 2024
Kharkiv:
Today is a day of mourning in Kharkiv region.
Russian attacks killed at least 11 civilians over the last 24 hours or so, including a pregnant woman.
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 19, 2024
UPD. According to the Kharkiv Oblast prosecutors’s office, two women were injured.
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 19, 2024
Footage from a recreation center near Kharkiv, where six people died, including a woman who was 7 months pregnant. 27 more were injured, including an 8-year-old child – Internal Affairs Ministry.
Shortly after the first strike, Russia launched a second one – it injured a… https://t.co/IJiGhYT7Vv pic.twitter.com/xYh0xvLUjt
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 19, 2024
Footage from a recreation center near Kharkiv, where six people died, including a woman who was 7 months pregnant. 27 more were injured, including an 8-year-old child – Internal Affairs Ministry.
Shortly after the first strike, Russia launched a second one – it injured a police officer and a paramedic who had arrived after the first strike to rescue people. This is not the first time the Russians have used the tactic of double strikes.
“One of the victims was killed 100 meters from the base, he was fishing – a direct hit of a fragment to the heart,” head of the Kharkiv regional police investigation department.
📹: Oleksandr Titov/Nakypilo
I recognized this place, having spent many happy times there with friends. It was always full of life. Today, people enjoying a peaceful Sunday morning in nature near Kharkiv became targets of a russian missile strike.
📹Suspilne Kharkiv, Denys Klymenko/Gwara media pic.twitter.com/gcOtYJ8jHB
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 19, 2024
“As long as it takes” for Russia to destroy Ukraine apparently🤷♂️ https://t.co/dwlb4EJMv5
— Andriy Haydash (@andriyhaydash) May 19, 2024
I’ve seen the videos of the aftermath of this strike. You do not need to go looking for them!!
The death toll from a russian missile strike on a suburb of Kharkiv has risen to six. A 68-year-old man died of his wounds in hospital. pic.twitter.com/h7vhyeJSPO
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 19, 2024
This was a double tap strike using Iskanders. An 8 year old girl and a woman who was seven months pregnant are among the killed and wounded.
Among those killed at the recreation base was a woman seven months pregnant. What is this if not a continuing genocide? pic.twitter.com/sYeVdYRxrc
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 19, 2024
"Driving home, I saw an attack on the recreation center and immediately headed there. It was awful. On my way back, two UMPBs (guided bombs) flew overhead and hit the park and cemetery"—Just another typical day in Kharkiv.
📷 Yury Larin pic.twitter.com/wTq9c1Lkgl
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 19, 2024
Briefly about the Kharkiv front:
> Ukraine asks the West for help with weapons because Ukrainian weapons alone are not enough to protect itself from Russia.
>The West provides weapons.
>The West prohibits Ukraine from using the supplied weapons against Russia.
>Ukraine is… https://t.co/5ud3jGSC65— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 19, 2024
Briefly about the Kharkiv front:
> Ukraine asks the West for help with weapons because Ukrainian weapons alone are not enough to protect itself from Russia.
>The West provides weapons.
>The West prohibits Ukraine from using the supplied weapons against Russia.
>Ukraine is forced to fight against Russia only with its own weapons.
Ukrainian Marine Kriegsforscher has posted a long thread detailing what is going on in Kharkiv Oblast where he is currently deployed. From the Thread Reader App:
My company and I are involved in the battle for Vovchansk, Kharkiv oblast.When I one month ago have «predicted» that RUAF will attack in Kharkiv oblast I didn’t expect to take part in this. I was sure about Donetsk oblast😵💫
Frankly speaking, it’s very painful to watch this. People just had no time to evacuate in a proper way. They had a supper at their tables.Very unpleasant feelings.
Our president said that we have no problems with artillery shells and no one complains. That’s not true and I see no point of lying in this situation.Our artillery is firing, yes. But it’s incomparable with Russian artillery.
Most of their artillery (2S19 and 2S43) are located in Belgorod region, Russia.And, unfortunately, we cannot fire them with American HIMARS (for example).
So we just suffer, resist and bite. If we only could fire Russian targets at their territory…
Very strange emotions I feel. Right now our army is fighting where Germans and Soviets fought during the WWII.
"Forgive me. I would never give you away."
A grandmother, who is being evacuated from Vovchansk, had to say goodbye to her dog. Volunteers are looking for a new home for the woman, but the dog was not allowed to stay in the dormitory, so he was taken to a shelter.
Thankfully,… pic.twitter.com/cxWuNMux74
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 16, 2024
“Forgive me. I would never give you away.”
A grandmother, who is being evacuated from Vovchansk, had to say goodbye to her dog. Volunteers are looking for a new home for the woman, but the dog was not allowed to stay in the dormitory, so he was taken to a shelter.
Thankfully, volunteers were able to solve the situation and later, information appeared that the grandma and her doggie would soon be together.
I know that this situation happened to many Ukrainians, to those who are abroad as well because the housing conditions did not allow them to settle with their animals, so they were forced to give them to the shelter.
Damn Russia. Our pets are family members.
📹: shafranskaya.vtobi/TikTok
Sumy Oblast:
⚡️Russian forces attack 13 communities in Sumy Oblast, injuring 1.
Russian forces struck 13 communities in Ukraine's northeastern Sumy Oblast in 43 separate attacks throughout the day, injuring one person, the regional administration reported on May 19. At least 236 explosions…
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 19, 2024
From The Kyiv Independent:
Russian forces struck 13 communities in Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy Oblast in 43 separate attacks throughout the day, injuring one person, the regional administration reported on May 19. At least 236 explosions were recorded.
The communities of Khotin, Yunakivka, Bilopillia, Myropillia, Krasnopillia, Velyka Pysarivka, Nova Sloboda, Druzhba, Svesa, Hlukhiv, Shalyhyne, Esman, and Seredyna-Buda, were targeted.
A man in the Khotin community was reportedly injured as a result of the shelling.
Throughout the day, Russia assailed the border communities with mortar, mines, artillery, grenade launchers, and drone attacks.
The town of Bilopillia, with a pre-war population of about 15,600 residents, experienced the bulk of the attacks reported, with 68 explosions recorded in the area. The community is located just eight kilometers south of the Ukraine-Russia border.
Russian strikes against Sumy Oblast have become increasingly destructive in recent months. Amid intensified attacks, Ukrainian authorities ordered increased evacuations from the region.
Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, said on May 14 that he expects Russia to launch a new attack in Sumy Oblast after the situation in Kharkiv Oblast stabilizes.
Shelling is a daily occurrence for the communities near Ukraine’s northeastern border with Russia, with residents in the region’s vulnerable border settlements experiencing multiple attacks per day.
Novomykhailivka:
Precision strikes on Russian positions on the Novomykhailivka fronthttps://t.co/2U7va8MNyZ pic.twitter.com/pG4XmcLKgO
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 19, 2024
Chasiv Yar:
On May 17th there was a big Russian attempted attack on Chasiv Yar, Bakhmut front. Approximately 20 AFVs were used by Russians in this attack.
In total 10 Russian AFVs were destroyed/damaged during the attack. One group of Russian infantry was able to land on the outskirts of… pic.twitter.com/7UB6ac5RIY
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 19, 2024
On May 17th there was a big Russian attempted attack on Chasiv Yar, Bakhmut front. Approximately 20 AFVs were used by Russians in this attack.
In total 10 Russian AFVs were destroyed/damaged during the attack. One group of Russian infantry was able to land on the outskirts of the town near multi-story buildings. But the group was cut off from Russian forces. In the evening of the 18th of May there were no more Russian infantry in the town.
“Currently there are also no Russians in the cities of Chasiv Yar.
For the third day in a row, Russians are trying to attack with AFV groups of up to 20 units.
On the morning of May 19, there was another attempt to break through the towns defenses, without success.
Some of the armored vehicles were destroyed, some moved back to their positions”The last video shows part of the Russian infantry group that has reached Chasiv Yar but was cut of from the Russian forces and was captured by Ukrainian ‘Kraken’ unit.
Krasnodar Krai, Russia:
Last night, not only did Fury miss a few hooks, but so did the Russian military airfield and oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai pic.twitter.com/qcVvLfLzHE
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 19, 2024
This night there was a drone attack on Russian Slavyansk ECO oil refinery. This is not the first time this oil refinery is being targeted.
Slavyansk ECO in the Krasnodar Territory suspended operations after a drone attack last night, according to the company representatives.… https://t.co/qGVCNk9qiD pic.twitter.com/TzxVMUR3j3
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 19, 2024
This night there was a drone attack on Russian Slavyansk ECO oil refinery. This is not the first time this oil refinery is being targeted.
Slavyansk ECO in the Krasnodar Territory suspended operations after a drone attack last night, according to the company representatives.
“There were arrivals. The plant is now shut down. We are counting the damage and the law enforcement agencies are working,” he said.
He added that it is not yet clear when the plant will resume operations.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok.
@patron__dsns Життя красиве, коли кольорове 🌈🌞💓 #песпатрон
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
Life is beautiful when it is colorful 🌈🌞💓 #песпатрон
Open thread!
Gin & Tonic
Mylovanov is absolutely, 100% correct.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Unfortunately.
Sorryforlaughing
Thank you, Adam, for the updates but my rage and disgust at our government is fathomless. For want of a nail, a clue, a moral backbone…
Another Scott
https://nitter.poast.org/sambendett points us to a long Galeev (KamilKazani) thread on how VVP changed russian industry.
tl;dr – VVP bought it from the West (mainly Italy, with help from others).
I’m taking a bit too much pleasure in the apparent implosion of Gazprom, but this story is a bunch of pieces that all fit together. Massive profits enabled purchase of other things that can be problematic for the sellers years (or decades) later. Cutting VVP’s funding might not have immediate impacts on the course of the war, but it will have an effect in coming months and those effects may ripple decades into the future.
Slava Ukraini!!
Thanks Adam, and everyone.
Cheers,
Scott.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
BREAKING Crash site has been found & #Raisi & the Iranian foreign minister are dead!
Another Scott
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: I haven’t seen any confirmation that they’ve died, but it certainly doesn’t look good for them.
AlJazeera.com:
I’m sure Iran is trying to (understandably) manage the news, but I’m not seeing any different reporting elsewhere yet.
We’ll know more soon enough I guess.
Cheers,
Scott.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
PML but fuck Elon Musk & the DOD personnel who basically decided to cede Starlink, this vital Ukrainian resource to his control. Why hasn’t MuskMelon been hauled into the Pentagon & asked some very pointed questions about how the Russians are now able to jam Starlink & how does he intend to fix it?
And these are the same people telling Ukraine how to fight a war for their very existence. Which just makes my blood boil. How dare they!
The entire Iranian Diaspora is celebrating the death of The Butcher of Tehran. Some are even letting off fireworks.
Thank you Adam. Always glad of your wisdom even when I find it infuriating.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@Another Scott: It’s pretty much confirmed now that the actual crash site has been reached. The helicopter smashed into the mountain, hard. Raisi & his fellow travellers probably died instantly, & have been dead for hours. The foreign minister is largely intact, but his head suffered blunt force trauma.
Andrya
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: Not to in any way minimize the impact on Ukraine, but my understanding is that the US military also uses the Starlink system. Aside from Musk being a bigot and a vatnik, there is a huge conflict of interest if (for example) China invades Taiwan and Musk has financial interests in China. And it makes it worse that this is a privately owned company- there’s no board of directors that could insist that contracts be honored.
What the heck was the DoD thinking? Did they think at all? Giving a private citizen the ability to shut down the American military at whim?
The current jamming problem may be solely due to ruzzian software guys (though I wouldn’t bet a nickel on that proposition). However in Sept. 2023 Musk intentionally shut down Starlink because (in his view) the Ukrainians were getting too close to Crimea. link
Westyny
Thanks, Adam. The fecklessness of our Ukraine policy reminds me of our serial betrayal of the Kurds. How can we point to the disaster the Republicans would mean to our foreign policy when our own people prove so unreliable to those who need us? It’s not nearly as fraught a decision as arming the Afghanis was.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@Andrya: Oh, I know about Crimea. Adam has highlighted it several times. Around then, IMO, Musk should at least have been stripped of his security clearance. Why he’s still allowed so much control over such a vital resource is a complete mystery & an infuriating one.
Andrya
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: Totally agree. And when I think that back when I worked in aerospace, I had to meticulously report visits to one of my brothers who lives in the UK. Not to mention the time the Facility Security Officer chewed me out (“You are a TOTAL DISGRACE!”) because I had admitted to smoking marijuana (twice! in 1971!). I did get the clearance, though.
patrick II
If Ukraine is to win the war Russia must lose it. Once Ukraine leaves Russian control they lose their dreams of rebuilding the empire and they know it. They will not stop unless defeated.
Dan B
It’s infuriating that our military and the politicians influencing the Biden administration feel it’s preferable to have Ukraine hang by a thread than risk having a hot war with Russia. If Putin takes Ukraine the Baltics will soon follow and Poland thereafter. By trying to avoid a hot war we end up in a hot war. Where did logic disappear? And if Ukraine worsens it puts Biden in a terrible political position. Are there people in the administration working to destroy him, and democracy?
Ten Bears
White Rabbit (?) Did Elon open a backdoor?
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Traveller
Mylovanov sounds like loser talk…blame, blame, blame, Yeah, let us blame Biden…How much did President Obama do in 2014 when this was all set on a slow fuse…though damned sure burned brightly for the Ukrainians? When treaties signed and guaranteed by the United States were ripped up and spit on by Russia?
At the time when I wanted direct intervention I was forced by Obama (and Europe) to accept the fall back position that this low burn allowed Ukraine to develop its Army and NCO Corps. It was an idea that like Neville Chamberlain, Munich bought the UK time to build up the RAF and develop radar, etc.
Was it a wrong decision? Yes, but the Arrow of Time faces in only one direction…you have to take what is given, as given…it is done, time to move on. These past two years Ukraine has begun the ability to rely on itself, its own manufacturing and developing defense industries…Europe, larger in population by at least 100 million persons than the United States…and this may be a horrifying thought, but Europe may have to carry the load entirely by itself after January 2025. This may be an unhappy thought, but it is there…lingering like a spectre. Regardless, it must be dealt with patience and intelligence.
There simply really isn’t any other choice….maybe the US has hesitated fearful of the fact that the fearsome Abrams Main Battle Tank wasn’t or wouldn’t be so fearsome in actual battle…as has proven to be the case. The Bradley on the other hand is performing very well…These are things to be found out, discovered.
Eisenhower wisely held off Stalin’s insistence for an invasion in 1943…Ukraine has two great Advantages: 1) Ukraine has no choice but the fight on, and, 2) Ukraine has Strategic depth, it is t he second largest country in Europe, only behind Russia itself.
If Ukraine loses 10 or 50 square miles, I am not happy, especially considering artillery ranges, but it is only but a tiny nibble. War forces difficult decisions, this is one, complaining against the United States and its recent infusion of 60 billion dollars is another…and foolish.
Tides can roll against you for certain, but they can turn also and roll in your favor…this war is not over or lost…we will see. Best Wishes, Traveller
YY_Sima Qian
This will get interesting:
Bill Arnold
@YY_Sima Qian:
Indeed; there will be a lot of screeching by fanatics on both sides of that conflict that their war crimes don’t stink.
It will also be noticed that the ICC did not target leaders on one side in another major active war.
We’ll see. No actual indictments yet.
Here’s the ICC statement. More text at the link.
Statement of ICC Prosecutor Karim A.A. Khan KC: Applications for arrest warrants in the situation in the State of Palestine (20 May 2024)
YY_Sima Qian
@Bill Arnold: I think it was a good decision by the ICC. This is how a rules based international order is established.