(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Quick housekeeping note: Rosie is still doing well after her chemo on Monday. She’s still a bit wobbly, but she’s active, eating, drinking, wanting attention, and her temperature is still normal. She’ll have bloodwork done Saturday, but otherwise, she’s got a two week break before round 2 starts. Thank everyone again for their good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.
As I started tonight’s update – 6:40 PM EDT – air raid alerts were up over all of eastern Ukraine except for Sumy Oblast. In the past seven minutes they’ve also gone up in Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts. So they’re now up in all of eastern and southern Ukraine with the exception of Sumy Oblast.
Russia is still pounding the daylights out of Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. As well as other parts of Ukraine.
⚡️Russia attacks 10 communities in Sumy Oblast.
Russian forces attacked Sumy Oblast 30 times throughout the day, causing at least 139 explosions, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported on May 22.https://t.co/a3btaw45hL
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 22, 2024
From The Kyiv Independent:
Russian forces attacked ten border areas and settlements of Sumy Oblast on May 22, firing 30 times and causing at least 139 explosions, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported.
The communities of Mykolaivka, Bilopillia, Krasnopillia, Velyka Pysarivka, Esman, Shalyhyne, Putyvl, Znob-Novhorodske, Hlukhiv, Seredyna-Buda were targeted.
The Russian military struck the communities using artillery fire, drones, and mortar shelling, while also dropping mines.
No casualties were reported.
The town of Velyka Pysarivka experienced the most attacks, with 71 explosions recorded in the area.
Velyka Pysarivka, located directly on the Russia-Ukraine border, has become a main target of attack for Russia. Amid an up-tick in Russian attacks, authorities have been working to increase evacuation efforts in the town Velyka Pysarivka with nearly 300 residents being evacuated this week.
Shelling is a daily occurrence for the communities near Ukraine’s northeastern border with Russia, with residents in the region’s vulnerable border settlements experiencing multiple attacks per day.
Following a russian bomb strike on a residential neighborhood in Kharkiv, ten civilians were injured. Among them, one man is in serious condition, having lost both legs.
📹 Yevhen Khaustov/Espreso https://t.co/41sYV5yl0E pic.twitter.com/Ba7HEb1HO0
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 22, 2024
Drones are turning into the deadliest weapon of this war. Today, one killed a policeman during an evacuation mission in Vovchansk. They're everywhere in the sky, even reaching as far as the Kharkiv Ring Road. pic.twitter.com/KkkVLoRRsY
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 22, 2024
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
The Peace Summit and the Participation of World Leaders Can Restore the Full Effectiveness of the UN Charter and Return Full Protection to Every Nation – Address by the President
22 May 2024 – 20:24
Dear Ukrainians!
A brief summary of the day.
I held a special meeting of the National Security and Defense Council and the Staff, with the Secretary of the NSDC Lytvynenko, the Chief of the General Staff Barhylevych, the Deputy Prime Minister Fedorov, and the Minister for Strategic Industries Kamyshin. It was about our Ukrainian production of electronic warfare, drones, our missile program, and our countermeasures against Russia’s guided aerial bombs. This is a challenging topic, and while we see some good progress on electronic warfare, drones, and the missile program, there is still a lot of work to be done to counter Russian bombs. We discussed the details today. There is no alternative – Ukraine needs systems and tactics that will allow us to defend our positions, our cities and communities from these bombs. For now, they are the actual main tool of the Russian terror and the advance of the occupier.
Today I also spoke with General Syrskyi about the situation on the front. The report of the Commander-in-Chief was delivered in the morning, and there was another one just recently. The directions of the main battles have not changed. They include primarily Pokrovsk and other Donetsk directions. As well as the Kupyansk direction in the Kharkiv region. The main focus is on the entire border area, not only in the Kharkiv region but also in the Sumy region. The task of our units and the Defense Forces in general has not changed either. We must inflict as many losses on the occupier as possible, and I thank every warrior, every soldier and commander who is really accurate, who really ensures for all of us – for our entire state – the results we need.
In particular, I would like to mention the 57th separate motorized infantry brigade, which is defending the area of Vovchansk and our Kharkiv region in general, firmly holding its positions and destroying the occupier exactly as needed. Thank you, warriors! Also, the 82nd separate air assault brigade. Thank you, guys! As well as the Pokrovsk direction – the 47th separate mechanized brigade. Well done, warriors!
And now, I would like to personally thank Sweden and Mr. Prime Minister Kristersson for today’s new decision on long-term support for our country and our people for the next three years. The total amount is seven billion dollars. It is really tangible, and it will strengthen not only us, not only Ukraine, but the entire European perimeter from the Baltic to the Black Sea. Wherever the Russian madmen might try to revise the land or sea borders.
Today, I also continued our diplomatic marathon of preparations for the First Global Peace Summit, personally inviting four more states to the Summit. I spoke today with the leaders of Chile, Albania, Austria and Mozambique. There are four more states at the Summit – thank you. Of course, we also discussed our bilateral relations. Now every leader, every state is able to show their leadership so that this year will be a time of victory for international law and justice, a time when not just one aggressor loses, but the very idea of war – the idea of turning the lives of peoples into ruins – loses. The Russian aggression tried to turn the UN Charter into a museum piece. Our Peace Summit and the participation of world leaders can restore the full effectiveness of the UN Charter and return full protection to every nation.
I thank everyone who is already helping us with this! I thank every leader who is sending the necessary messages to the rest of the world – messages that the Summit will really bring a just end to this war closer.
Glory to Ukraine!
We did it again!
Ukrainian defenders shot down another russian Su-25 jet in the Donetsk region.
Nice job, warriors! pic.twitter.com/arDshyNhHS— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 22, 2024
I do believe this is the fifth Su-25 the Ukrainians have downed in the past month or so.
Sweden:
The Swedish government decided to allocate 75 billion SEK (€6,5 billion) for military support to Ukraine in 2024–2026.
Such long-term support will help strengthen our defense capabilities.
We are grateful to our Swedish partners.
Together, we are stronger!
🇺🇦🤝🇸🇪@ForsvarsdepSv… pic.twitter.com/btv5IKXjSS— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 22, 2024
The Swedish government decided to allocate 75 billion SEK (€6,5 billion) for military support to Ukraine in 2024–2026.
Such long-term support will help strengthen our defense capabilities.
We are grateful to our Swedish partners.
Together, we are stronger!
🇺🇦🤝🇸🇪@ForsvarsdepSv
@PlJonson
@SwedeninUA
Slava Ukraini! pic.twitter.com/IDYhPS6aWq
— SwedishPM (@SwedishPM) May 22, 2024
Estonia:
⚡️Russia is waging a "shadow war" on the West, and there must be a coordinated response, the Associated Press wrote on May 22, citing comments from Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas.https://t.co/cWcZnmZiVO
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 22, 2024
The Kyiv Independent has the details:
Russia is waging a “shadow war” on the West, and there must be a coordinated response, the Associated Press wrote on May 22, citing comments from Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas.
Kallas said she was concerned that some other European leaders have not viewed the uptick in incidents of sabotage and arrest of suspected spies across the EU to be interconnected.
The West needs to have a “serious discussion of a coordinated approach” to counter the Russian threat, she said.
“How far do we let them go on our soil?”
There have been several episodes linked to Russian security services in 2024 in Estonia alone, such as Russia’s ongoing jamming of GPS signals on commercial flights across the Baltic region.
Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said in April that GPS jamming was “too dangerous to ignore.”
Kallas said that she had three requests to her European allies: “the recognition that these are not isolated events, second, that we share information about this amongst ourselves, (and) third, (to) make it as public as we can.”
As more of these incidents are uncovered, Russia has been shifting tactics, Kallas said, and is using spies who pose as diplomats “all the time.”
Russia’s aim is to “sow fear” in Europe and hinder support for Ukraine, she said.
Estonia has been one of the leading military donors to Ukraine in terms of share of GDP since the beginning of the all-out war in 2022. Kallas and other Estonian politicians have also been particularly outspoken about the threat that Russia poses to Europe.
Prime Minister Kallas is correct. But it’s not really a shadow war. Rather it is political warfare: politics with other means.
The Baltic Sea:
⚡️Russia deletes draft decree to change Baltic Sea maritime border.
A draft decree suggesting changing Russia's border in the Baltic Sea was deleted from the Russian government website on May 22 after swift condemnation from some NATO members.https://t.co/wNILDy2fXu
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 22, 2024
More from The Kyiv Independent:
A draft decree suggesting changing Russia’s border in the Baltic Sea was deleted from the Russian government website on May 22 after swift condemnation from some NATO members.
In the draft decree, originally published on May 21, the Russian government said it wanted to revise the existing border, as it had been created in 1985 using now out-of-date nautical charts.
The draft proposal was deleted on May 22, and the web page to the decree now reads: “The draft is deleted.” There has been no public explanation as to why it was taken down.
Leaders from the surrounding NATO member countries responded fiercely to the decree.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis called the Russian move “another hybrid operation,”which aims to spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt about their intentions in the Baltic Sea.
“This is an obvious escalation against NATO and the EU and must be met with an appropriately firm response,”Landsbergis wrote on Twitter.
Micael Byden, the supreme commander of the Swedish Armed Forces, said Russian President Vladimir Putin may be seeking dominance over the Baltic Sea and has his eye on the Swedish island of Gotland.
“I am confident that Putin even has both eyes on Gotland. Putin’s goal is to gain control of the Baltic Sea,” Byden said.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb, in turn, said Moscow had not consulted with Helsinki.
“Finland acts as always: calmly and based on facts,” Stubb wrote on Twitter.
Remember, this is all part of Putin’s world war against NATO, the EU, the US, and the “West.” It is predominantly political warfare, meaning politics with other means to use the correct translation from long dead Carl. Russia may have deleted the decree, but now we have to wait to see if Russia actually adheres to the current borders or the ones in the now deleted decree. I expect it will be the latter.
France:
⚡️French authorities are reportedly investigating the potential role of Russian security services in graffiti that was painted on the Holocaust memorial in Paris, the France Info media outlet said on May 21, citing sources in law enforcement.https://t.co/BnYfmTiIsf
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 22, 2024
I did NAZI that coming!
The Kyiv Independent has the details:
French authorities are reportedly investigating the potential role of Russian security services in graffiti that was painted on the Holocaust memorial in Paris, the France Info media outlet said on May 21, citing sources in law enforcement.
Russian security services have been accused of carrying out a wide variety of subversive acts in the EU, ranging from assassinations to low-level sabotage.
French authorities discovered spray-painted red hand symbols on the walls of the memorial on May 14, which Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo immediately characterized as an antisemitic act.
The following week, authorities told France Info that the possible perpetrators had been found using surveillance cameras and other corroborating information, and identified as Bulgarian nationals.
Investigators told France Info that there is “little doubt” it was a Russian “operation to destabilize public opinion.”
The case follows a similar incident in October, shortly after the beginning of Israel-Hamas War, in which hundreds of Stars of David were found graffitied around Paris. Two Moldovan nationals are suspected of carrying out the vandalism campaign on the orders of a pro-Russian Moldovan businessman.
I guess this something else Bibi can thank his good friend Putin for.
Britain:
The U.S. and U.K. have evidence Beijing and Moscow are collaborating on combat equipment for use in Ukraine, as lethal aid is flown from China to Russia, British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said on May 22.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 22, 2024
Here’s the details from The Kyiv Independent:
Editor’s note: The article initially quoted a report by the Press Association, which cited Shapps as saying, “lethal aid is now flying from China to Russia.” Reuters cited Shapps as saying, “lethal aid is now, or will be, flowing from China to Russia.”
The U.S. and U.K. have evidence that China is supplying or about to supply lethal aid to Russia, British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said on May 22, Reuters reported.
Speaking at the London Defense Conference, Shapps said he was declassifying new intelligence to reveal the “quite significant” development and called on the world to “wake up” to the threat it poses.
China officially declares itself a neutral party to Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine and has denied providing lethal aid, but Beijing and Moscow continue to develop closer ties, most recently with Russian President Vladimir Putin visiting his counterpart last week.
U.S. officials have previously warned China against providing Russia with lethal military aid and urged Beijing to use its influence over Moscow to help end the war, though Shapps latest comments suggest those warnings are going unheeded.
U.S. and British defense intelligence can now reveal that “lethal aid is now, or will be, flowing from China to Russia and into Ukraine,” Shapps said in comments reported by Reuters.
“That recent visit we saw, the… 64% increase in trade that we’ve seen between the two countries, reveals that there is actually a much deeper relationship there,” Shapps said, as reported by Press Association.
Shapps did not elaborate on the specifics of the lethal aid he was referring to. He said it was up to democratic states to make a “full-throated case” for a Western values-based international order which requires “more allies and partners” worldwide.
“It’s time for the world to wake up. And that means translating this moment to concrete plans and capabilities. And that starts with laying the foundations for an alliance-wide increase in spending on our collective deterrent,” he said.
China has insisted that it has not supported either Ukraine or Russia with weapons throughout the full-scale war.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning responded to Western criticism in a press conference last month, claiming the partnership between Beijing and Moscow constituted “normal cooperation.”
“China will not accept the accusations and pressuring,” Mao said.
Does the Biden administration have any thoughts on this? Yes they do:
⚡️U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan distanced himself from an assertion from U.K. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps, who said earlier on May 22 that the U.S. and U.K. have evidence that China is supplying or about to supply lethal aid to Russia.https://t.co/tH5rBzYK1z
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 22, 2024
More from DC:
So far, no clarity from the DoD on whether Ukraine can use Western air defenses to strike targets in RUS airspace. I asked about the reasoning behind such restrictions. @PentagonPresSec: “The strategic intent here is enabling Ukraine to defend its sovereign territory." pic.twitter.com/QZiVwy5DTo
— Ostap Yarysh (@OstapYarysh) May 22, 2024
Yarysh is asking this at every press conference where he is called upon. I think this is the second time this week.
And he’s also covering Congress:
Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs committee @RepMcCaul asks @SecBlinken whether the administration will lift the restrictions on how to use weapons provided to Ukraine. “They cannot achieve victory with the restrictions you placed on them.” pic.twitter.com/0QDuvmOTxu
— Ostap Yarysh (@OstapYarysh) May 22, 2024
⚡️Asked @SpeakerJohnson about using US weapons on the RU territory?
⁰SPEAKER: I think, they need to allow Ukraine to prosecute the war the way they see fits. They need to be able to fight back. And I think us trying to micromanage the effort there it’s not a good policy for us. pic.twitter.com/71iLMTa9p8— Kateryna Lisunova (@KaterynaLis) May 22, 2024
I just want to make this very, very clear. The Biden administration’s risk aversion towards Russia and the resulting strategic confusion towards Ukraine has now allowed members of the GOP majority in the House, the caucus that held up a supplemental aid package for Ukraine for all of 2023 and the first four months of 2024, to politically outflank them regarding aiding Ukraine. Johnson personally held aid up for over five months. His predecessor as Speaker held it up for over 10 months in 2023.
Kharkiv:
For those of you missing Kharkiv or wondering what it's like in the city… Day 819 of the war. pic.twitter.com/Gw3dfsiSBD
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 22, 2024
Early this morning, russian forces struck the center of Chuhuiv in Kharkiv Oblast with missiles, destroying a kindergarten and damaging residential buildings and civilian infrastructure. Eight people were injured. pic.twitter.com/n64XpWNGKW
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 22, 2024
Read this firsthand account from @padochka, who has been volunteering in Kharkiv for two years. She helps people who fled their homes, returned and started to rebuild—only to be forced to flee again or stay in their beloved Kharkiv and risk death every day. https://t.co/lTAPZo66is
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 22, 2024
From The Guardian:
The Russian offensive on the Kharkiv region this month has, after 20 months of relative peace, again placed many of the villages where my charity works, repairing homes destroyed by bombs, at the forefront of the war.
I began volunteering in Kharkiv two years ago, having dropped out of my master’s degree in Russian literature and set up the charity to support Ukrainians. After the region’s liberation in September 2022, hundreds of thousands of people had started to return to Kharkiv city and the wider region from other parts of Ukraine, and countries that had taken them in as refugees. The villages where I work were reawakening, the craters that lined the streets had been filled, shops were reopening, electricity was back on. People’s return was mostly driven by a desire to be at home.
“Dim ye dim” is the catchphrase of those living in these villages. Home is home. For many, living in the villages that sit in the 30 miles between Kharkiv and the border with Russia, returning home is also a conscious act of defiance. One elderly woman, who had stayed in her village throughout the war, through occupation and shelling, told me that she would not leave because “so long as there is a Ukrainian on this soil, it will be Ukraine”.
When reports began circulating back in January that Russia may try to take Kharkiv again, local people generally ignored them. Everyone understands the risks they are taking by living so close to the border, but people cannot live in constant fear. Residents planted their vegetable gardens, confident they would be harvesting from them in a few months’ time. They continued to hope that the US military aid package would come through on time, and that the fortifications on the Ukrainian side of the border would hold the Russians back. Nonetheless, over the past month, friends of mine have begun to make contingency plans, posting their documents to family members in safer parts of Ukraine, or moving their children to relatives elsewhere.
On 10 May, the Russians finally recrossed the border and have captured over a dozen villages. Last week, at a petrol station in the eastern Saltivka district of Kharkiv, I stood next to the melted carcass of a lorry hit by a strike in 2022, and listened to the sound of artillery from the frontline, now once again just a few miles away. When I texted a resident of one village last week to ask how she was, she simply replied: “Prokhody is burning.”
Six weeks ago I was having lunch in that same village, which had recently regained electricity for the first time in two years and was discussing plans for local people to put on a cabaret at their small cultural centre over the summer. That cultural centre was badly damaged at the start of the war, but the local administration repaired it in the belief that music might help heal the residents’ trauma. It may well be destroyed now. The village is under too much fire for anyone to check.
On a walk with a local friend in Kharkiv last week, we noted how similar the tense atmosphere was to when we had first met in the city in the summer of 2022. There are some major differences, though. The use now of immensely powerful glide bombs, capable of creating craters as deep as nine-storey buildings, adds another layer of tension.
The lack of faith in the west’s support is another. In the early days of the war, despite all the unfurling horrors, people were confident that the west saw this fight as its fight too, and that Ukraine would receive the support it needed. The massive delays in US aid mean that this belief has been replaced by a feeling of betrayal. Ukrainians breathed a collective sigh of relief last month, when the US Congress finally passed the long-awaited bill providing $60.84bn of military aid to Ukraine. However, I don’t know a single person who has not lost a loved one fighting in the past six months, and no one here can shake the belief that those lives might have been saved had the US passed the bill sooner.
The Ukrainian army seems to have stalled the Russian advance on Kharkiv for now, but concrete action must be taken by Ukraine’s allies to ensure that Kharkiv and the villages around it do not become the next Mariupol. Kharkiv needs proper air defence: entering the city feels as though an umbrella has been taken off you during a storm –people are living with little protection from the attacks launched from across the border every day. Most vitally, Ukrainian troops must be able to strike in Russian territory: once they can do this, they will be able to destroy the systems from which these weapons are launched. So far, the UK and Latvia have said this should be allowed, and those countries must now step up the pressure on the US to allow Ukraine to do the same with American weapons.
Prior to moving to Kharkiv, I spent the first months of the war volunteering on the Polish-Ukrainian border, helping those fleeing. I thought at the time that there was nothing more heartbreaking than the look in the eyes of a person who has been forced to leave their home. Since this new offensive, I have realised that there is: the look in the eyes of a person who fled their home, returned thinking they were safe once more and started to rebuild their life, only to be forced to flee again. My friends and colleagues are once again being forced to make the impossible decision of whether to leave their homes and step back into the life of a refugee, or to stay in their beloved Kharkiv and risk death every day.
This situation was avoidable. The civilians and soldiers who have died since the new offensive began can’t be brought back, but through adequate weapons and air defence provisions, and permission for Ukraine to strike Russian territory, the west can ensure that their friends and families won’t face the same fate – and that the residents of Kharkiv and the villages where I work can keep rebuilding their homes and their lives.
Siversk, Donetsk Oblast:
Another video showing the devastating weapon that has helped Russia gain the upper hand on the battlefield. Ukraine is unable to shoot down glide bombs. It needs long-range air defense and F-16s to potentially fire on the Russian planes that release the bombs. https://t.co/JwtHwz8brF
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 22, 2024
Mospyne, Donestk Oblast:
/2. ATACMS debris in Mospyne published by locals pic.twitter.com/trGLMTixhG
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 22, 2024
Here’s the full text of the first tweet above:
Russian media reports that there was an ATACMS strike in the area of Mospyne, 40km from the frontline. Based on available published videos, the explosion pattern is similar to an air defense missiles detonation. So maybe an air defence system was targeted. Footages of ATACMS submunitions are also published by Russian media.
The Kinburn Spit, Mykolaiv Oblast:
Here’s a video purportedly showing that SBU Sea Baby attack on Russian positions on the occupied Kinburn Spit: https://t.co/f3OEF0ljlh
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 22, 2024
Sea Baby!!!!!
Chasiv Yar:
Defenders of Chasiv Yar describe new attempted Russian attack on the town.
“On the night of May 22, the Russians attempted a breakthrough, using 3 units of armored vehicles
The tank was moving with a mine trawl to clear the way for the BMP. Tank took a firing position and… https://t.co/HWoNAJgBzg pic.twitter.com/IXLIrsLMDP
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 22, 2024
Defenders of Chasiv Yar describe new attempted Russian attack on the town.
“On the night of May 22, the Russians attempted a breakthrough, using 3 units of armored vehicles
The tank was moving with a mine trawl to clear the way for the BMP. Tank took a firing position and opened fire, covering the approach of 2 BMP with infantry.
Russians had no success. The defenders of Chasiv Yar destroyed the equipment and manpower of the assault group.”
“An interesting specimen of a Russian tanks did not reach Chasiv Yar. Russian T-90M after the night assault. Two night cameras are installed on top as well as an anti drone cage”
/3. Same T-90M https://t.co/FdkRs3kdkQ pic.twitter.com/uQcri9rllP
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 22, 2024
Russian occupied Crimea:
Russia is adding barriers around the Crimean bridge to defend against Ukraine’s naval drones.
The bridge was last damaged by naval drones in July 2023. pic.twitter.com/l2IvZnwMYN
— Brady Africk (@bradyafr) May 22, 2024
Russia:
Russia has begun exercises with tactical nuclear weapons, using Iskander missile systems and Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. These exercises, allegedly intended as a response to "provocative statements" by the West, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, are aimed at practicing… pic.twitter.com/Hsc8VDxU9v
— Denis Danilov (@DenisDanilovL) May 22, 2024
Russia has begun exercises with tactical nuclear weapons, using Iskander missile systems and Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. These exercises, allegedly intended as a response to “provocative statements” by the West, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, are aimed at practicing scenarios for the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons.
At the same time, Russia is unilaterally revising its maritime borders with Lithuania and Finland, claiming that the current coordinates, established in Soviet times, do not correspond to the current geographical situation. This revision covers waters east of the Gulf of Finland and near the Kaliningrad region, allowing Russia to declare these waters its internal seas.
With the West cautious about providing military aid to Ukraine and prohibiting the use of Western weaponry on Russian territory, Putin sees this as a weakness and is upping the ante. The Kremlin has traditionally used nuclear exercises as an element of blackmail and a show of force. The revision of maritime borders is just the beginning; Russia’s future actions will depend on Western reactions. If Putin again fails to meet the appropriate resistance, next time not only the territorial waters of NATO countries will be threatened, but also their land borders.
It is time for the West to accept a harsh reality: either they will increase their support for Ukraine and strike Russia hard with Ukraine’s forces, or face an ongoing war of aggression and Moscow’s territorial seizures. The fate of European security hangs in the balance, demanding decisive and united action to destroy the Russian Empire.
#RussiansATerroristState #StandWithUkraine #UkraineRussiaWar
That’s enough for tonight.
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Spa day!!!!
Open thread!
db11
Thanks Adam.
Happy to hear that Rosie is responding well to her treatment. Fingers crossed!
Adam L Silverman
@db11: Thanks!
Adam L Silverman
I’m going to try to get a workout in. Back later.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re most welcome.
SpaceUnit
They need to bring down that Crimean bridge once and for all.
Where’s an India-flagged freighter when you need it?
Nukular Biskits
As much as it pains me to agree with them both, Rep. McFaul and Speaker Johnson are correct. Cue the “broken clock right twice a day”.
It’s long past time that POTUS and members of his administration stop hamstringing Ukraine. I’m baffled as to why Biden is so timid with respect to Russia.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1793334263644869093#m
Jay
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/22/israel-national-security-jake-sullivan
Not This Asshole Again.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/NOELreports/status/1793224485849502006#m
https://nitter.poast.org/victoriaslog/status/1793258172934754743#m
Parfigliano
@Jay: Spain, Ireland, Norway have the right idea.
@Jay:
Another Scott
@Jay: OTOH, Milley told us it was going to be protracted and slow and bloody.
DefenseOne.com (from May 2023):
Maybe he’s wrong, but he was in the position to have the data and information and experience that we don’t have. So, his opinion is worth considering.
Contra many here, I think that Biden still knows what he’s doing wrt to Ukraine. Keeping NATO together is still the most important US and western priority. Defeating VVP in Ukraine is a clearly stated goal.
WhiteHouse.gov (from April 24):
All of us wish that things were moving faster, Nancy was still Speaker, that Ukraine had everything it asked for and the means to use them, that there were no supply chain issues, that many NATO countries weren’t governed by weak governments with RW monsters just waiting to take over, and on and on. I don’t believe we live in the best of all possible worlds – far from it. But the world is complicated and difficult and progress is a slog.
Biden has done a good job with the hand he has.
YMMV.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Draco7
@Nukular Biskits: Overall, the State Department’s foreign policy seems incoherent – at least to me. I have no sense of defined goals in any of the active crises, just reactive behavior and largely ambiguous communications. “Risk averse” is an often used descriptor, but what really seems to be missing is clarity of thought and action. The Obama administration seemed similar in approach – too careful to be particularly effective. I have this vision of every decision being submitted to the tank mind and picked apart rather than acted upon. I think someone like Fiona Hill would be a better SecState – doubt I’d agree with her on everything, but her thinking has clarity. I’m pretty frustrated with this bunch, they just don’t seem particularly sharp.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: He is, unfortunately, correct. That is a very good strategic assessment.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: I chose not to post that. I’ve seen the videos and screen grabs, the rest of you don’t need to do that to yourselves.
Sally
Most of us here knew this is what was coming. The “shadow war”, the unilateral redrawing of boundaries – isn’t that what the invasions of Ukraine and Georgia are? Just inch by inch, step by mendacious step. Idiots convincing themselves that this will be all Russia will do. Mustn’t poke the bear. They either think it won’t affect them, or they are allies. Even if they are allies, it will affect them – leopards eat faces. No amount is ever enough. Like the (most) billionaires, greed cannot be cured or sated. Putin will not stop. The more they have, the more they want, and will take by any means necessary. This is also what China is doing, only they aren’t stupid enough to advertise changes to maritime boundaries. They just do it.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: That equipment he was sending in the next few hours back on 24 April is due to arrive sometime in June. As for Milley, his assessment was correct because we’ve slow walked supplying and resupplying Ukraine and limited what they are allowed to do because of our risk aversion and strategic cowardice.
Jay
@Another Scott:
Full of shit.
Ukraine is still begging for AD,
Geofenced.
840 modernized and modern tanks to Ukraine from the EU and other non-US partners.
32 from the US despite over 3400 sitting in storage.
0 US F-16’s despite 1100 sitting in storage.
It’s become very clear that the Biden Administration’s goal is to fight ruZZia to the last living Ukrainian, then go back to business as usual with Putin.
84% of the content of all ruZZian missiles, drones, smart bombs IC’s are US supplied, still, and the number and volume just keeps going up.
Will it be the Sullivan Tower in Moscow, the Biden Tower in Moscow, or the Trump Tower in Moscow, is the only question remaining.
Another Scott
@Jay:
Made me look.
AF.mil (from August 2002):
6 months working on each of them for 16 planes.
They had trouble getting parts 22 years ago.
What about now?
AF.mil (from August 2023):
(Wikipedia tells me that the USAF had 841 F-16s active in 2023.)
They recently had a backlog so that it was taking 18 months per plane. That’s to keep existing US planes flying. That’s not taking mothballed planes out and making them serviceable on top of that.
None of this stuff is easy. Having 1100 planes in the desert doesn’t mean that they can be made flight worthy and survivable and sustainable for an active war anytime soon.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Ksmiami
@Jay: Ukraine should just get the weapons and attack Russia- fuck the cowards in Washington
Jay
@Another Scott:
The US sells F-16’s from surplus for millions of dollars each.
It’s not your local Army surplus store.
They are basically, remanufactured to what ever Block Standard that the contract is for, which usually requires extensive upgrades to everything from engines, communications, digital links, radar systems, sensor systems, weapons integration. As a result, they are often “competing” with existing manufacturing lines for current new aircraft for parts supply.
So when Turkey or Thailand buy’s an F-16, it’s basically new, not a “driven only by Granny to Church on Sunday” Chrysler Cordova used car, where is, as is.
The EU and others supplied F-16’s to Ukraine are basically as is, where is, with just the upgrades they were parked with, inspections and servicing carried out.
Unlike the US sold F-16’s the odometer has not been rolled back,
and they are free.
It takes 16 hours to put an F-16 in storage back into service, with out upgrades, and 4 hours of that is peeling off the protective plastic.
Jay
@Ksmiami:
then what, we have and are seeing how gutless Washington is, and how clueless.
Yeah, I can see Biden cutting all funding and weapons to Ukraine the moment a HIMAR’s crosses the border into ruZZia, even if by accident.
Ksmiami
@Jay: I don’t actually… I think he’ll feign indignation but Russia needs to be stopped and hard.
Jay
@Ksmiami:
Sullivan et al is in control, not Biden.
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: The signal-to-noise in this thread has now officially gone to zero.
Carlo Graziani
Here’s some thought-provoking reading at NYT (gift link): Inside The White House, A Debate On Letting Ukraine Shoot U.S. Weapons Into Russia. You should read the whole thing.
YY_Sima Qian
It would be strategic malpractice of the highest order for the PRC to provide lethal aid to Russia when the fighting is ongoing. While the PRC is quite capable of selling the qty of equipment & munitions to Russia to make a tangible difference on the Ukrainian battlefield, & probably make a killing doing so, it would mark the kind of clean break w/ the EU, & would solidify the kind of anti-PRC US-EU alignment, that the PRC has been trying to forestall (w/ mixed success). Sending lethal aid in low volumes would not make a difference on the battlefield, but would invite all of the blowback anyway. If Xi & the PRC leadership was willing to accept total break w/ the EU (& the US), direct Chinese exports to Russia would not have fallen over the past several months out of concern of US secondary sanctions, & the PRC would have consummated the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline deal w/ Putin long ago.
PRC interest is being served by providing economic support, supplying civilian goods for the civilian economy, as well as dual use goods for both civilian & war economies, purchasing Russian commodities at steep discounts, filling the market vacuums left by the evacuated Western corporations, & while not getting completely tied to Russia at economic, military & geopolitical levels.
I just don’t see it, & I think the UK claim is more likely based on thin intel, sourced from wishful thinking among some Russian officials: “lethal aid is now, or will be, flowing to Russia.”
Comrade Bukharin
I think half the people on this thread wouldn’t mind a Trump victory, just for the thrill of seeing Biden lose.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
the article can be summed up as “iz our children learnin?”
Yes, 2 years too late at best.
YY_Sima Qian
@Sally:
As I have written before, the PRC’s (expansive, aggressive, ridiculous, name the adjective) maritime claims in the South China Sea (the infamous “Nine Dash Line”) is inherited from its predecessor the ROC (the even more expansive, aggressive, ridiculous, & the virtually unknown, “Eleven Dash Line” drawn in 1946). The claims are not new, although both the ROC & the PRC have been consistently coy about what the dash line actually means (territorial waters? EEZ? all islands/atolls w/in are sovereign territory?), what has changed is the PRC’s willingness & ability to try to enforce its claims.
Since the 1970s, Vietnam & the Philippines have made their own territorial claims in the South China Sea (justified retroactively “since time immemorial”, much like the PRC/ROC) that, while less expansive/aggressive/ridiculous than the ROC/PRC claims, are nonetheless expansive/aggressive/ridiculous & have no standing under UNCLOS. The Philippines has been quite effective in the information domain (toward the West, at least) pertaining to recent confrontations w/ the PRC CG & Maritime Militia at the reefs, rocks & low tide features close to the Philippines. Externally the Filipino government characterizes its efforts as defending Filipino rights in their EEZ (in which the Philippines has a very strong case), but internally the message to the population is that of a valiant fight for sovereign Filipino territory (in which the Philippines does not have a stronger case than ROC/PRC claiming all of the Spratly Islands).
The historical context does not excuse the expansiveness of the PRC’s nebulous claims (or the ROC’s) in the SCS, the aggressive posture toward rival claimants, the pervasive “squatting” by the PRC Maritime Militia around the features, or the intimidating tactics & calculated unsafe maneuvers employed by the PRC CG & Maritime Militia. That context might explain why the Philippines has been able to garner support from the US, Japan & Australia in its recent confrontations w/ the PRC, but not from the rest of the ASEAN.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Yeah, I don’t see China getting off the fence,
despite, (possible sanctions) the fence is awkward,
it is highly profitable, not just now, but in the future.
The new Volga’s* are just Chinese kit cars assembled in ruZZia.
*Volga’s are ruZZia’s domestic high end luxury cars. Which is why everybody wants a Porsche. Mercedes or BMW instead.
SpaceUnit
@Comrade Bukharin:
Yup. These threads are getting pretty weird.
Jay
@SpaceUnit:
@Comrade Bukharin:
KOS and LGM are always available.
SpaceUnit
@Jay:
And you can vote for trump if you want to see this war end quick and neat.
Sally
@YY_Sima Qian: Yes, as soon as I hit “Post”, I thoughtI would be shown to be wrong, at least in part. There are many parts of the world where neighbours can choose to go back to a particular date and say, “well, actually, that’s mine!”. I have lived in some of those countries and have some small sense of how fraught the issues are. We have always had boundaries, if not borders. And people have always fought over them. Another intractable.
Thank you for your informative response.
Jay
@SpaceUnit:
If you had a clue, you would know that I am Canadian, don’t get to vote in US Elections, despite what your BFF Trump says, have a friend fighting as a tank commander in Ukraine on Ukraine’s side, just to make that clear, because you are stupid, and I support his family here financially and emotionally.
Just like Gaza, the Biden Admin is dropping the ball on Ukraine.
Lead, follow, or get the fuck out of the way. Right now, the best that the Biden Admin is capable of, but won’t do, is get the fuck out of the way of the rest of us.
Same with Olaf Scholz and Orban,
SpaceUnit
@Jay:
I don’t give a fuck that you’re Canadian. Biden doesn’t have the luxury of sniffing glue and playing checkers with simpletons like you.
Go play in the street.
ETA: A Canadian street. Stay the fuck out of here.
Jay
@SpaceUnit:
LMFAO.
Enjoy your Reich.
And you wonder why Alison Rose barely posts here, Tony Jay tolerates posting here, Imandy Gandy ran away as fast as she could,
LMFAO
Fucking “Merkins.
“A merkin is a pubic wig. Merkins were worn by prostitutes after shaving their mons pubis, and are now used as decorative items or erotic devices by both men and women.”
BTW, on Canadian streets, we have this tradition called “car”! So they are safe to play on and why we have 92% less people run over on the street or sidewalks or crosswalks than the USA! USA! USA!.
SpaceUnit
@Jay:
Dude, you need a better brand of glue.
SpaceUnit
@Jay:
Also, I love a good internet shit fight.
It was a pleasure crossing swords. You’re good. Maybe we can do it again. We’re on the same side.
Peace.
Jay
@SpaceUnit:
And you need to find better crack.
Burn your Confederate Flag,
accept immigrants and other opinions,
Embrace BLM, Drag Queen Story Hours and trans people,
take the stick out of your ass,
Quit fondling guns,
I suggest the crack that’s 90% fentanyl.
That will cure stupid.
SpaceUnit
@Jay:
Fine. You win.
Jay
@SpaceUnit:
Srry, not srry,
You need to read, take a deep breath before you knee jerk.
I lived and worked in the US for 15 years, in the most segregated city in the US at the time, (Fortune 100 Corp, yes, I shipped jobs away), I had the right to vote,
Always voted Democratic Party, top ticket, down ticket, even when some of them were assholes.
They were better than the other options.
I still get calls from headhunters to come back, I will not.
YY_Sima Qian
@Sally: The best solution to the SCS mess is something along the lines of the Antarctic Treaty, where all claimants agree to freeze their clams w/o officially withdrawing them, & then agree to jointly develop the resources w/in, & jointly agree to cap their military collaboration w/ out of region powers.
However, the massive artificial island bases that the PRC has constructed in the Spratly Islands have placed the other claimants at such a disadvantage operationally that it might be hard for them to strike a deal that is not lopsided in the PRC’s favor (which was the purpose of the island reclamations). Such advantages, on top of the overwhelming advantage in national power that the PRC enjoys, has tempted Beijing to pursue a non-compromising & maximalist course. To date, the PRC has preferred to deal w/ each rival claimant bilaterally, & to prevent the “multi-lateralization” & “internationalization” of the SCS dispute. However, its assertive/aggressive actions are actually encouraging the rival claimants to “multi-lateralize” & “internationalize” the dispute. That is why the littoral members of the ASEAN generally seek to keep the US (& Japan, Australia & the EU) engaged in the region as hedge against PRC power.
Finally, the Sino-US Great Power Competition is now deeply interwoven into the bilateral dynamics between the PRC & its rival claimants, principally the Philippines. That makes the situation all the more fraught & potentially dangerous. The PRC is now is very concerned about USN FONOPS through the SCS, seeing the SCS as its backyard where foreign military presence should be kept to a minimum. The northern part of the SCS is also the “bastion” from which the PLAN SSBN (the seaborne leg of the PRC’s nuclear deterrent) are to launch retaliatory strikes from. Imagine the hyperventilation we will see in the US if a PLAN carrier battlegroup sails through the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico (which might happen in a decade or two).
The best realpolitik play for the PRC has always been to reach accommodations w/ Malaysia & Indonesia 1st, where the overlap in claims are relatively minor. Vietnam will always prioritize its relations w/ the PRC (not to be confused w/ alignment), due to cultural-historical linkages, deep economic integration, sharing a land border, being in a vulnerable geopolitical position, & [not the least] the CPC & the CPV being ideologically simpatico (both jealously guard their governing prerogatives against any force they cannot control/suppress, be they left-liberal/internationalist or nativist-reactionary/ultranationalist). Vietnam had tried the confrontational approach w/ the PRC, fanning domestic nationalist passions & leaning upon US rhetorical support, in the early to mid-10s, & found that it could not advance its interests that way. Since then Hanoi has worked hard to prevent any dispute w/ Beijing from becoming a hot issue domestically or internationally. This course of action would isolate the Philippines as the only country in SE Asia that is more closely aligned w/ the US. However, the current maximalist bend in the PRC’s policy wrt the SCS prevents Beijing from taking such a course.
SpaceUnit
@Jay:
Good for you.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
yeah,
49 40 or fight!!!!!!
Do you really want to go to war with Britain at this time?
As the Big Dog, China could settle this, (and it would be economically adventageous, but they won’t.) They are the only power outside of International Corps that can “exploit” the resources.
Big Dog syndrome.
SpaceUnit
Starting to think we need an intervention.
Another Scott
@Jay: Made me look some more….
Of the 834 USAF F-16s listed as being in storage (sto) at F-16.net, 145 are listed as “scrapped” (scr).
108 are listed as “Preserved” (pre) – e.g. at museums.
AMARCExperience.com lists 340 F-16s there.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
@SpaceUnit:
We, (Balloon Juice), used to have a lot of “voices” here, some were front pagers at a time.
Sadly, a bunch were driven away by the comments.
Did not want to hear what they were talking about, and rather than listen, (that’s a skill you know), they ragged, a bunch of it was “American exceptionalism”,
Yeah, Tran’s person, (still don’t know their pronouns, or remember their nym) driven away after 3, maybe four front pages.
Imandi Gandy, (Angry Black Lady), driven away.
0 POC front pagers have ever survived.
The really stupid part is that if the commenters had just sat down and thought, for a few moments, rather than knee jerk,……
well, there could have been a conversation.
The Edmonton Police, with the “blessing” of the President, of the University of Alberta, cleared the 200 non violent Anti Gaza War protestors yesterday. With billy clubs, combat gloves, tear gas, pepper spray and “non lethal” projectiles.
Slight problem.
Public space.
Free Speech, (different in Canada),
Non violent.
So now, the Cops and the President are “turtleing”, hiding,
And 2000 protesters showed up today.
U of Manitoba, “benefactor”, ($30 million, a big deal in Canada), publically shit on the valedictorian speech for calling for a cease fire and peace, 3 lines out of 57.
Got his check back in 12 hours.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Big Dog Syndrome indeed.
@Jay @SpaceUnit:
I don’t think we need personal attacks or vulgarity here.
Jay
@Another Scott:
and 0,
Poland had 48, total.
SpaceUnit
@Jay:
Yeah, we’re all one unified voice now.
SpaceUnit
@YY_Sima Qian:
I know. You’re right.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Sadly, sometimes a kick in the balls is what is needed.
It’s after dark, and I think SpaceUnit and I are good.
YY_Sima Qian
@SpaceUnit:
@Jay:
Thumbs up!
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: BTW, the CEO of Lada has been lamenting to Russian media that the flood of imported Chinese autos will make his business unviable.
SpaceUnit
@Jay:
Yes, we’re good. We just both enjoy a good fight. Nothing wrong with that.
Also it’s late. Going to bed. Take care.
Jay
@SpaceUnit:
You too. Sleep well.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Yeah, it’s more that technically, he owes the family of every dead ruZZian, (that is documented) in the so called SMO, a free Lada.
That 550,000 so far. A year and a half’s worth of production.
And Putin ain’t paying.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Heh, I forgot about that promise.
YY_Sima Qian
Sign, the PRC just launched a large military exercise in several zones surrounding Taiwan, Kinmen & Matsu, apparently using the inaugural speech on 5/20 by the new ROC President Lai Ching-Te (in which he ventured much further than his DPP predecessor Tsai Ying-wen in asserting Taiwan as an independent state & Taiwan’s usefulness in containing the PRC) as the excuse. Judging by the size of the exclusion zones drawn, it seems to be bigger than the exercises held immediately after the visit by former Speaker Pelosi in Aug. 2022, but we will have to see if the scope, the execution & the duration will actually exceed the one in Aug. 2022.
The purpose is clearly to intimate the new Lai Administration, & to reemphasize the PRC’s red lines on opposing de jure independence for Taiwan & any military alliance w/ the US, as well as signal to the domestic audience that the CPC regime remains vigilant against any potential moves by pro-Independence politicians in Taiwan.
Lai is a self-proclaimed “pragmatic worker for Taiwanese Independence”. Here is FT‘s reporting on Lai’s address, & why it might raise alarms in Beijing:
Kathrin Hille spent many years based in Shanghai, decamped to Taipei at the onset of the pandemic & continued to report on the PRC & Taiwan. Her reporting since moving to Taipei has generally been sympathetic to Taiwan in general & the DPP in particular.
Peace across the Taiwan Strait rests on a delicate balance & an equally delicate façade of unreality, dependent on Beijing, Taipei & DC avoiding moves that might upset the balance & strip away the façade. Between ’00 – ’08, it was mainly Taipei that was making destabilizing moves (earning then Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian the moniker of “Troublemaker” from GWB). Between ’08 – ’16, no one was making such moves, & analysts everywhere marveled at how one of the once most dangerous hot spots in the world has receded from the headlines & dropped in the mindshare of policymakers. Since ’16, however, all three players have been busy asserting their preferred views more strongly, drawing their red lines more thick, & generally reducing the political space for the others to maneuver, in a vicious cycle. The greatest disruption actually came from the Trump Administration’s energetic playing of the Taiwan Card to pressure the PRC. Before that, Xi & the CPC leadership was taking a wait & see attitude, albeit a skeptical one, toward then Taiwanese President Tsai, who was inaugurated in Aug. 2016.
Unfortunately, the Biden Administration has done little to reduce the anxieties in Beijing wrt US intentions for Taiwan, Tsai had done little to reduce the anxieties in Beijing wrt the DPP’s intentions (& Lai has now gone further), Xi has done little to reduce the anxieties in Taipei & DC wrt PRC intentions for Taiwan, so the vicious cycle continues in fits & starts.
The tragedy is that Lai won the presidency on a relatively narrow plurality because the opposition parties failed to unite. The DPP has lost its majority in the Legislature, where the opposition parties are now coordinating to embarrass & frustrate their rival. Both of the main opposition parties ran on platforms w/ less confrontational approaches toward the Mainland. Overwhelming majority of Taiwanese still prefer the status quo, & do not want to shed blood for de jure independence. The next 4 years in Taiwanese politics is set for gridlock. The PRC exercises are likely to prove counterproductive w/ Taiwanese popular sentiments. OTOH, DPP politicians, when frustrated w/ opposition filibuster of their domestic agenda, have a tendency of resorting to elevating nativist & pro-Independence rhetoric/sentiments to try to energize their base for upcoming elections. So perhaps the CPC regime is shooting a warning shot across the DPP’s bow, irrespective of the short term costs. But, that is probably not message received by Taipei & DC.
We are still in May! 2024 will be excruciating to get through.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
What’s on your bingo cards?
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Don’t want to think about it
This is not a cover for an imminent invasion, but the vicious cycle continues.
Another Scott
@YY_Sima Qian: I’ve thought for a while that the CPC isn’t stupid enough to invade. They want to change the government in Taiwan to one that is friendly and reunify via a soft coup via elections. Ratcheting up the pressure against an unfriendly government is part of that process.
“We’ve made it clear where the red lines are. The separatists will lose. We welcome peaceful unity, and all the familial benefits of unity and prosperity, blah, blah,…”
Nobody would recognize Taiwanese independence. It would be an empty gesture.
Beijing has lots of time and can adjust the news and opinions on the mainland over years and decades if it wants. AFAICS, there’s no hurry and there’s no political benefit from the destruction an invasion would bring compared to the soft power/subversion approach.
We’ll see.
Cheers,
Scott.
YY_Sima Qian
@Another Scott: One of Beijing’s red lines is moves toward permanent separation, I think that is where the greatest danger of miscalculation & vicious spiral lie. As long as Taiwan & the US make enough gestures/nods toward the conceivability of eventual reunification w/ the Mainland, someday, possibly, or at least not openly reject the possibility, the CPC regime is not under any self-imposed pressure to act aggressively.
The “’92 Consensus” framework that the KMT operated under from ’08 – ’16 provided such a fig leaf, a façade of unreality, so that both sides of the Taiwan Strait can get on w/ making money. The “Consensus” wasn’t really a consensus of any kind, but good enough for the purpose. When Tsai was elected in ’16, her political base of pro-Independence leaning voters loathed any concession, no matter how perfunctory & superficial, to any concept remotely resembling “One China”, which pressured Tsai to abandon the formulation. She tried to thread the needle in her 1st inaugural by acknowledging the “historical fact” of the “’92 Consensus”, but not actually agreeing to it. The CPC regime deemed the speech an “unfinished test” & took a wait & see attitude heavily leaning toward skepticism, relations chilled noticeably, but did not take significant grey zone actions to pressure her government. Cross-Strait relations reached an impasse, w/ the CPC regime insisting on Tsai adopting its formulation that wold be political suicide for her, & Tsai insisting on Xi accepting her formulation that would be politically suicide for him, & Tsai never could find a solution that satisfied both her pro-Independence political base & the Mainland government.
Things might have coasted along at that level for while, until Trump got elected. His team of über-China hawks proceeded to quickly dismantle a number of implicit Sino-US understandings governing their interactions w/ & in relation to Taiwan. Even before Trump was sworn in, he broke long standing precedent by taking a congratulatory call from Tsai, & the trilateral dynamics quickly spiraled downward after that. The Trump Administration gleefully played the Taiwan Card to needle & pressure the CPC regime at every turn, & Tsai & the DPP enthusiastically embraced the US side of the Sino-US Great Power Competition to escape from the cul-de-sac in Cross-Strait relations that their positions had forced them into. In its turn, the CPC regime escalated intimidation, coercion & grey zone actions against Taiwan.
After the DPP took a drubbing in the 2018 Taiwanese mid-term local elections, due to a series of scandals & poor domestic policy decisions, & poor perception of its Cross-Strait policy, Tsai doubled down on playing the nativist/nationalist card to consolidate her base & made anti-CPC her main platform. The CPC regime, through the Hong Kong government, cracked down on the Hong Kong protest movement of 2019 knowing that it would destroy whatever little credibility its formula for eventual reunification (“1 Country 2 Systems”) had in Taiwan, & just didn’t care. Tsai eagerly leveraged the Hong Kong protests to solidify her political position, loudly expressing solidarity (which the CPC regime interpreted as directly interfering in the domestic affairs on the Mainland, & thus breaching a decades long Cross-Strait modus operandi). Tsai rode the surge in anti-CPC/PRC/Mainland sentiments to a historic landslide win in 2020, but ended up hanging Hong Kong asylum seekers out to dry by making path to residency impossibly difficult. Trump took the China rivalry to xenophobic levels when the COVID-19 pandemic hit, & the DPP politicians rode the nativist reaction, as well. Taiwan was just about the only country that insisted on calling COVID-19 “Wuhan Pneumonia” well into ’22. Taiwan was also one of the few places in the world where a plurality favored Trump’s reelection (Hong Kong was another). The CPC regime railed against Tsai as an “Unrepentant Splittist”.
There was some hope that the trilateral dynamic might stabilize again under Biden, but Biden has “gaffed” 4 times now suggesting that the US will directly intervene if the PRC invades Taiwan (& walked back each time by Administration officials), going against the decades long US policy of “Strategic Ambiguity”. High level political appointees at the Biden DOD have openly described Taiwan as a “strategic asset” in the US’ Great Power Competition w/ the PRC. All of which serve to feed the paranoia in Beijing that the US is trying to engineer Taiwan’s permanent separation from the Mainland. The more Taiwan sought to chart its own course & seek greater international space w/o any fig leaf toward “One China”, the more the CPC regime sought to intimidate & coerce Taiwan via greyzone tactics & compress the latter’s international space, the more Taiwan recoiled from the Mainland, & the more the US (& other Western countries at the US’ urging) sought to expand Taiwan’s international space. The more the CPC regime railed that Western relations w/ Taiwan becoming more formal & official, the more Western relations w/ Taiwan took on trappings of official status & edging closer to Beijing’s red lines. D & R politicians in the US competed w/ each other in performative acts aimed at pissing off the CPC regime, rather than enhancing Taiwan’s security & economy in any meaningful way.
The Taiwan Strait is the central front, the new Fulda Gap, in the brewing Sino-US Cold War, & Taiwan is the “frontline” state. The old delicate balance has tipped over (the PRC now has overwhelming military/economic advantage over the ROC/Taiwan, & approaching parity in the region w/ the US, the US is now actively seeking to form regional coalitions to contain the PRC militarily/economically/technologically), the old delicate façade has badly worn down (mainstream opinion in Taiwan has turned away from any affinity w/ the Mainland, the DPP is now much more vocal in asserting Taiwan’s de facto independence, the US is increasingly treating Taiwan as a strategic asset to be denied to even a notional China in the future, the CPC regime is increasingly aggressive in attempting to compress Taiwan’s international space even as a de facto state & has escalated its grey zone tactics of intimidation & coercion), & Lai’s inaugural speech tore at some of the last few threads hanging (no acknowledgement of the ROC Constitution or respect for the ROC as the official name of the de facto state, declaring Taiwan to be a key part of the 1st Island Chain, which was conceptualized during the 1st Cold War specifically to contain “Communist China”). None of these dynamics are stabilizing.
I am quite confident that Xi, Biden & Lai do not wish for a war across the Taiwan Strait, & the arms race they are engaged in are justified in each of their minds as preparing for the worst case scenario rather than an inevitable & imminent one. However, I am far less confident that they can break out of the interactive vicious spiral. Should Trump get reelected, it will just be kerosene on the fire.
Another Scott
@YY_Sima Qian: Thanks.
Reason n+1 why TIFG and the GQP monsters need to be defeated in November (and long afterwards).
Patricia Kim at Brookings (from January):
There’s been a lot of justifiable concern about the CCP and China for a long time, e.g., them stealing a vast amount of data from the OPM in 2015. But there has also been decades of over-the-top anti-China rhetoric that has been increasingly institutionalized. China isn’t going away, and neither is the USA. We have to find a way to muddle through together even with all of our serious disagreements.
It’s hard to imagine much good happening until after the election. Depending on how so many other things go (Ukraine, China’s economy and banking/real estate system, the “AI” bubble bursting, black swan events, etc.), maybe (we can hope) things will be on a less confrontational course in early 2025. Since Xi came to the US in late 2023, presumably Biden wants to go to China sometime in the not too distant future.
Fingers crossed.
Thanks again.
Cheers,
Scott.
YY_Sima Qian
Well, so far Joint Sharp Sword 2024-A exercises have mostly consisted of aggressive patrolling by the PRC CG, w/ elevated presence of PLAN ships & PLAAF aircraft around Taiwan (but far from the upper bound we have seen in the past year and half), & no live fire exercises in the Taiwan Strait & no missile launches so far. Perhaps the expansive drawing of the exclusion zones was the main calculated & calibrated message. We will see what tomorrow brings.
Of course, Joint Sharp Sword 2024-A suggests there could be -B, -C, -D, etc. exercises through the rest of the year…
BTW, Jim Clapper himself testified to Congress that the OPM hack was “within bound intelligence gathering” that the US would also seize if the opportunity arose. The kind the hacking that is far more hostile is stealing sensitive information from US industry & MIC at a massive scale, as well as more recently burrowing deep into the infrastructure networks in the US & US territories in the Pacific, potentially to be triggered in the case of war. US officials claim to MSM that the US does not conduct such intrusions against infrastructure in the PRC, but who knows.