There’s more numbers available for campaign spending in the Wisconsin recall, but before I get to that, I wanted to return to the spin aspect and show you this from way back in 2011:
What if the public polls predicting a sizable labor win in the Ohio battle over collective bargaining are just flat-out wrong? An internal memo from a key labor-backed group in the state is flatly warning that the polls are “flawed” and that a big win for labor is not even “remotely possible.” It adds that the right’s messaging has “worked,” and that there’s good reason to suspect that a “massive amount of voter confusion remains,” suggesting the fight could still go either way.
“Those predicting a blowout for our side are basing their analysis on flawed public polling samples,” reads the memo, which was circulated to labor and political operatives involved in the fight by Brian Rothenberg, the executive director of Progress Ohio, which is partly bankrolled by labor. It was forwarded my way by a source.
Kasich’s anti-union law was defeated, 61 to 39. Frantic spin deliberately leaked from one side or the other or inadvertently leaked concern-memo by Progress Ohio? I don’t know. Polling on referendums in Ohio had been a poor predictor of results prior to Issue Two, so that part is true.
This is the best I could find on actual spending on ads in Wisconsin:
Walker, Republican Party committees, independent tea party groups and other grassroots fiscal conservative organizations have spent around $8.65 million to run ads in the recall campaign, from November through last week, according to data from Kantar Media/Campaign Media Analysis Group, a company that tracks and estimates the costs of campaign ads running on the air.
That’s a considerable amount more than the $5.10 million that Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, Walker’s Democratic challenger, Democratic Party committees and independent progressive groups have spent to run commercials.
“There is intense amount of advertising in the Wisconsin gubernatorial race that is chasing a minute amount of undecided voters. Attitudes are polarized and hardened in the Badger State, but with the contest so close, candidates and their allies have no choice but to go ‘all in’. That said, there probably are not a lot of moveable voters at this point,” Kenneth Goldstein, CNN’s consultant on TV advertising and Kantar Media/CMAG president, said.
On a related note, There are new rules that may help non-professionals (lowly voters, even!) follow the money in federal races. Recall that within the campaign industrial complex there are (of course) both buyers and sellers. If this is an arms race and we have very little real information on the buyers, we may be able to find out more by looking at the records of the arms dealers, online:
The National Association of Broadcasters has asked a federal appeals court to block new rules that would force broadcasters to reveal online who is paying for political campaign ads and just how much they are shelling out. The Federal Communications Commission adopted the rules last month in an effort to provide insight on campaign spending ahead of November’s congressional and presidential elections.
TV stations have been making public their records of campaign advertising buys and other community-related issues since 1938 as part of their public interest obligation.
“The public file rules are a common-sense update by the FCC to move from paper to online access to public information in the digital age,” an FCC spokesman said on Tuesday.
The new data format, to come initially from the four biggest TV broadcasters in the top 50 media markets, includes detailed information on who paid for political ads, key personnel of the groups buying ads, when political ads aired and rejections of requests to buy air time. The four biggest broadcasters are ABC, operated by Disney Co , CBS Corp, News Corp’s Fox, and NBC, controlled by Comcast Corp.
The top broadcasters would have to upload their political files to a database hosted on the FCC’s website, beginning 30 days after the rules receive approval from the Office of Management and Budget.The FCC expected the rules to swiftly gain OMB approval, in time to reflect spending during the 2012 campaign cycle.
The new rules would come at a time when political spending has hit record highs. Independent “super” political action committees have already spent nearly $126 million this campaign cycle compared with only $32.7 million spent in the same time period during the 2008 election. These “Super PACs” can raise and spend unlimited amounts to help politicians, as long as they do not coordinate with official campaigns.
Cable and the internet aren’t covered by the new online access rule.