— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) January 5, 2016
Simon Maloy, in Salon, has some “Irrational hopes for 2016“:
Well, it’s officially 2016. Welcome to hell! The presidential election is still nearly a year away, which means there’s plenty more time to build on the surreal and debased politicking that marked the last six months of 2015…
Ed Kilgore, at NYMag, recaps some useful history in “Here Comes Iowa, for a Whole Month”:
When the apple dropped on Thursday night, we formally entered a presidential election year. In the last two cycles, the first voting event — the Iowa caucuses — occurred immediately, on January 3. But this year, thanks to some energetic maneuvering by both parties to discourage states from rushing toward the early parts of the calendar (a.k.a. “front-loading”), we’ll be treated to an entire month of post-holiday corn-fed political goodness from Iowa before voters gather on Monday, February 1. Since an awful lot of caucusgoers have in the past changed their preferences in the last couple of weeks (with 2012 winner Rick Santorum the last to surge out of nowhere in the past few weeks), the extra time adds some extra drama to the race…
Since the Donald seems to do relatively well among independents and even some registered Democrats, it’s worth noting that Iowa allows registered voters to change their party affiliation at the door on Caucus Night. Fortunately for all the candidates, the Republican caucuses (unlike those held by Democrats) feature simple candidate-preference straw polls that don’t take a lot of time or training…
Like the Democrats, the Republicans will hold a debate in South Carolina this month (on January 14, a Thursday, with the Fox Business Network sponsoring). But they’re also holding a Fox News debate in Iowa on January 28, on the brink of the caucuses. This unusual event will probably have sky-high ratings in Iowa, and could immediately precede the release of the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll, a highly regarded survey conducted by Iowa pollster Ann Selzer that has been known to capture — and perhaps stimulate — late momentum. The timing of both these events is especially significant for Republicans insofar as last-minute switching from doomed candidates is very likely…
Though polls sometimes don’t adequately capture how likely it is that respondents will actually turn out on a cold night to a caucus, Clinton has led Sanders in every published poll of Iowa since September. In the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls, Clinton has 50 percent in Iowa, Sanders has 38 percent, and Martin O’Malley has 6 percent.
While Sanders may have an enthusiasm advantage, grassroots organization could be a different matter. Aside from the head start Clinton has from her 2008 contacts in the state, and the fairly extensive infrastructure set up by the Ready for Hillary super-pac before she announced, she’s benefiting from overwhelming support from unions that are politically active in Iowa. She’s been endorsed by three of the most significant: AFSCME, SEIU, and the Machinists, along with both teachers’ unions. That means she will have hundreds of organizers on the ground to identify supporters, get them to their precincts, and train them on what to do when they arrive (not as easy a proposition as in the Republican caucuses, since Democrats don’t just vote for their favorites but instead go through a lengthy process of dividing up into preference groups, redividing if there are candidates who don’t meet a minimum “viability” threshold — as will be the case in many precincts with Martin O’Malley supporters — and then electing delegates to a county convention)…
As noted above, the Republican results reported by the news media on Caucus Night will be based on simple preference ballots cast by caucusgoers. For Democrats, the numbers you will see are actually percentages of estimated state convention delegates for each candidate based on how many county convention delegates they’ve actually snagged. Candidate spinners and the media will be on hand to help the rest of the country “understand” what it’s all supposed to mean. And a lot of the hype you’ll hear between now and February 1 will be designed to shape what opinion leaders think of it all…
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Apart from getting out the pig-manure-proof waders, what’s on the agenda for the day?
Tuesday Morning Open Thread: “Welcome to Hell”Post + Comments (109)