Nothing like a slow news day, huh?
Good news first. A prisoner exchange was done today, which included 108 of the Azovstal defenders!
I’ve had a very long day, and since we basically knew what was coming today, there weren’t a lot of surprises. So I’m going to try to keep this fairly short as I want to go get cleaned up and crash.
But first I want to start with something a bit different. As you may be aware things in Iran have gotten unsettled very, very quickly. Give this a quick watch:
Anger is boiling over in Iran. The people have had enough. They didn’t take it from this regime enforcer. pic.twitter.com/G2yIrIE1Tb
— Frida Ghitis (@FridaGhitis) September 21, 2022
This is only one video that has come out of Iran over the past couple of days. You’ll notice that the helmet, billy club, and stun gun were no match for multiple attackers. And that’s what I want everyone to keep in mind as we get to the update. Because there are ongoing protests in Russia. They started shortly after the pre-recorded Putin and Shoigu canine and equine extravaganza was broadcast and panic began to set in amongst Russian males aged 18-65. A lot of people made for the borders and the airports, others decided to protest. While some of these were actually anti-war protesters, as in opposed to Russia’s re-invasion of Ukraine, most of them were protesting that they might actually have to go to Ukraine to fight and, left unsaid, most likely get killed. But there’s a takeaway here. Every police force’s worst fear – from the NYPD to Putin’s security service enforcers to the Guidance Patrol (morality police) in Iran – is that the citizenry, which always outnumber the police, will resist en masse. At that point, as we see in the video above, several irate citizens who have decided to not comply easily overwhelm a lone police officer or security service officer. We saw this on 6 JAN 2021.
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s speech to the UN. Video below, English transcript after the jump. Followed by his normal address below that in the same sequence, video, then English transcript.
Greetings to all people of the world who value peace and unity between different and equal nations!
I wish you all peace!
I thank you that we are united in our striving to restore peace and to guarantee peace for any nation that has become a victim of the armed aggression.
A crime has been committed against Ukraine, and we demand just punishment.
The crime was committed against our state borders. The crime was committed against the lives of our people. The crime was committed against the dignity of our women and men.
The crime was committed against the values that make you and me a community of the united nations.
And Ukraine demands punishment for trying to steal our territory. Punishment for the murders of thousands of people. Punishment for tortures and humiliations of women and men.
Punishment for the catastrophic turbulence that Russia provoked with its illegal war and not only for us, Ukrainians, but for the whole world. For every nation that is represented in this Hall of the UN General Assembly.
I am speaking on behalf of the state, which is forced to defend itself, but has the formula for peace. I am speaking to everyone who wants to hear how to achieve peace.
I will present a formula that can work not only for us, but for anyone who may find themselves in similar circumstances as we did. It is a formula that punishes crime, protects life, restores security and territorial integrity, guarantees security, and provides determination.
There are five preconditions for peace.
Dear Mr. President of the General Assembly!
Dear Secretary-General of the United Nations!
Dear heads of states and governments!
Dear journalists!
Nations of the world!
Ukraine wants peace. Europe wants peace. The world wants peace. And we have seen who is the only one who wants war.
There is only one Entity among all UN Member States who would say now, if he could interrupt my speech, that he is happy with this war – with his war. But we will not let this Entity prevail over us, even though it is the largest state in the world.
Ukraine showed strength on the battlefield, using its right to self-defense in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter. And no one will reproach us now or in the future with weakness or inability to fight for ourselves, for our independence.
We are achieving a result in this fight and we see what the end of this war will be, and what will be the guarantees of a stable peace.
The UN Charter proclaims the equality of nations – and we proved that Ukraine is equal among the equals.
The UN Charter protects the inviolability of borders – and we confirm our state borderline by expelling the occupiers outside.
The UN Charter stipulates the value of human rights, dignity and life, and we also stipulate them – with every Ukrainian city freed from Russian occupation.
We did not provoke this war. We held 88 rounds of talks in various formats to prevent this war, just from the beginning of my presidency until February 24 this year.
But Russia – instead of stopping the crime of aggression, which it started back in 2014 – turned it into a full-scale invasion. And we have no choice but to defend ourselves. We do it. We push the aggressor beyond the internationally recognized border of the Ukrainian state.
And this is the first item of our peace formula. Comprehensive item. Punishment.
Punishment for the crime of aggression. Punishment for violation of borders and territorial integrity. Punishment that must be in place until the internationally recognized border is restored. Until the aggression stops. And until the damages and losses for the war are fully compensated.
Therefore, sanctions against the aggressor are part of the peace formula. Blocking the trade and relations with the aggressor is part of the peace formula. All this is a punishment.
So long as the aggressor is a party to decision-making in the international organizations, he must be isolated from them – at least until aggression lasts. Reject the right to vote. Deprive delegation rights. Remove the right of veto – if it is a Member of the UN Security Council. In order to punish the aggressor within the institutions.
We should not turn a blind eye to propagandists who justify aggression, but apply a full package of personal restrictions against them. That is a punishment for lying.
Citizens of the aggressor state should not be allowed to enjoy tourism or shopping in the territory of those who value peace, but should be encouraged through visa restrictions to fight against the aggression of their own state. Punish for abetting the evil.
A Special Tribunal should be created to punish Russia for the crime of aggression against our state. This will become signal to all “would-be” aggressors, that they must value peace or be brought to responsibility by the world.
We have prepared precise steps to establish such Tribunal. They will be presented to all states.
Ukraine will appeal to the UN General Assembly to support an international compensation mechanism.
We count on your support.
Russia should pay for this war with its assets. It is also a punishment. This is one of the most terrible punishments for Russian officials, who value money above everything else.
The second item of the peace formula is the protection of life. The most concrete item.
Now, while the sessions of the General Assembly continue, in the Ukrainian town of Izyum, Kharkiv region, the exhumation is under way… of bodies from a mass burial, which happened when the territory was controlled by Russian troops. The bodies of women and men, children and adults, civilians and soldiers were found there. 445 graves.
There is a family that died under the rubble of a house after a Russian airstrike – father, mother, 6- and 8-year-old girls, grandparents. There is a man who was strangled with a rope. There is a woman with broken ribs and wounds on her body. There is a man who was castrated before the murder, and this is not the first case.
Ask, please, the representatives of Russia why the Russian military are so obsessed with castration. What was done to them so that they want to do this to others?
The only thing that differs the mass burial in Izyum from what the world saw in Bucha is, in fact, the burial. The Russian army was in Izyum for a longer time, and therefore the bodies of the killed people were buried, and not scattered on the streets.
So, how can we allow the Russian army somewhere on Ukrainian soil, knowing that they are committing such mass murders everywhere? We cannot.
We must protect life. The world must protect life. Every state suffering the armed aggression needs the opportunity to protect its citizens and liberate its territory.
If it requires help with weapons or shells – they should be provided. If you need financial help for this, it should be given. If for this, it is necessary to help with the intelligence data – just do it. But what is not needed is lies.
We can return the Ukrainian flag to our entire territory. We can do it with the force of arms.
But we need time.
We tried to speed it up. We tried to implement the basic provisions of the UN Charter for Ukraine through negotiations.
But Russia is afraid of real negotiations and does not want to fulfill any fair international obligations. It lies to everyone. As it is typical for aggressors, for terrorists.
Even now, when Russia talks about negotiations, it only wants to slow down its retreat. Russia wants to spend the winter on the occupied territory of Ukraine and prepare forces to attempt a new offensive. New Buchas, new Izyums… Or at least it wants to prepare fortifications on occupied land and carry out military mobilization at home.
We cannot agree to a delayed war. Because it will be even hotter than the war now.
For us, this is a war for life. That is why we need defense support – weapons, military equipment and shells. Offensive weapons, a long-range one is enough to liberate our land, and defensive systems, above all, air defense. And we need financial support – to keep internal stability and fulfill social obligations to our people.
Physical and social protection are two elements of any nation’s life. So, the second item of our peace formula is the protection of life. By all available means – allowed by the UN Charter.
The third item of our peace formula is restoring security and territorial integrity.
Look at how many elements of global security Russia has undermined with its war – maritime safety, food safety, radiation safety, energy safety and safety from weapons of mass destruction.
We are already restoring maritime safety and food security. And I thank Mr. António Guterres for his personal involvement. Algeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, Libya, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, Tunisia, Bangladesh, Israel, India, Iran, Yemen, Cyprus, China, Korea, Lebanon, Türkiye, Belgium, Bulgaria, Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Netherlands, Germany, Romania and France have already received Ukrainian agricultural products.
And we have to increase the supply by sea. Both under market conditions and within the UN Food Program, for which Ukraine is always a reliable partner.
By the way, despite all the difficulties caused by the war, we decided to provide humanitarian aid to Ethiopia and Somalia, so we will send them an additional amount of our wheat.
But it is more difficult with other security elements.
On the eve of the General Assembly meeting, Russia fired missiles at the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant. The explosion hit the station buildings – windows were broken, walls were damaged. The rockets exploded only three hundred meters from the walls of the reactors!
And this is after the IAEA’s clear appeal to Russia to stop any hostile activity against any nuclear facilities of Ukraine and, in particular, against the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station – the largest one in Europe, which Russia has turned into a target.
And that makes all of you a target.
Russian radiation blackmailing is something that should concern each and every one of you, because none of you will find a vaccine against radiation sickness.
The cost of living crisis continues in dozens of countries, it roots in the destabilization of the energy market. It is necessary to remove the main factor of global price turbulence, namely: Russian energy blackmailing.
It is necessary to cap the prices at which Russia exports its energy resources. It is necessary to make Russian oil and gas – just ordinary goods again. Currently, oil and gas are Russia’s energy weapons. And that is why it manipulates the markets so that electricity, gas, petrol and diesel become the privilege of few instead of being a common good available to all.
Limiting prices is safeguarding the world. This is the way to restore energy and price security.
But will the world go for it? Or will it be scared? Will it be scared of Russian threats?
It is necessary to take only one strong step, after which everything will become clear. The time has come for this.
This step will put everything in place. After the Russian missile terror. After the massacres. After Mariupol. After the burning of Ukrainian prisoners in Olenivka by the Russian military. After blocking the ports. After the strikes of Russian tanks and missiles on nuclear power plants. And after threats to use nuclear weapons, which have become the rule, not the exception, for Russian propagandists…
We must finally recognize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. At all levels. In all countries that confess the values of peace and protection of human life. Legally. Politically.
If you don’t have a legal mechanism, you can make a political decision – in the parliaments. This is the foundation for restoring global security. If this strong step is taken, doubts will disappear – whether to take other important steps.
And what is very sensitive – is the border, the territorial integrity.
When one country tries to steal the territory of another state, it puts all world nations under attack.
Global security cannot be restored without restoring the territorial integrity of the nation which suffered the armed aggression.
So, the third item of the Ukrainian peace formula is the restoration of security and territorial integrity. The fourth item is security guarantees.
Every nation has the right to security guarantees. Not only the largest nations. Not only the most fortunate ones.
We have proposals to upgrade the security architecture for Ukraine, and for Europe and the world, which will not allow any more aggression against us. We are already presenting them to partners.
Proposals for legally binding multilateral and bilateral treaties. These are the conditions for the guarantors to act, and the timeline for their actions to bring results – results on land, at sea and in the air; in diplomacy and politics, in economy and finance, in providing weapons and intelligence. Each of you, who will receive the text of our peace formula will also see the details of what we offer as security guarantees.
I do not want to compare our offers with the guarantees of any alliances that exist on the planet now. I want to stress that it is always much better to guarantee the security of a nation, preventively, rather than to stop a war after it has already begun.
And the fifth item of the Ukrainian peace formula is determination. Something without which the other four items will not work.
This is our determination to fight. This is the determination of the partners to help us, and also themselves. And this is the determination of the world to unite around the one who fights against armed aggression and to call to order the one who threatens all.
So, all five items of our formula:
- punishment for aggression;
- protection of life;
- restoration of security and territorial integrity;
- security guarantees;
- and determination to defend oneself.
This is the formula of crime and punishment, which is already well known to Russia. And this is the formula of justice and law and order that Russia has yet to learn. As well as any other potential aggressors.
What is not in our formula? Neutrality.
Those who speak of neutrality, when human values and peace are under attack, mean something else. They talk about indifference – everyone for themselves. Here’s what they say. They pretend to be interested in each other’s problems. They take care of each other formally. They sympathize only for protocol. And that is why they pretend to protect someone, but in reality they protect only their vested interests. This is what creates the conditions for war. This is what needs to be corrected in order to create conditions for peace.
All you need is determination.
There was a lot of talking about reforming the UN. How did it all end? No result.
If you look carefully at our peace formula, you will see that its implementation is already becoming a de-facto reform of the United Nations. Our formula is universal, and unites the North and the South of the world. It calls for the world’s majority, and encourages to expand the representation of those who remained unheard.
This is an imbalance when Africa, Latin America, most of Asia, Central and Eastern Europe comply with the right of veto, that they themselves never had.
And this is what Ukraine is talking about. And have you ever heard such words from Russia? But it is a permanent member of the Security Council. For some reason. For what reason, not Japan or Brazil, not Türkiye or India, not Germany or Ukraine. The day will come when this will be resolved.
As for the talks between Ukraine and Russia.
Probably you have happened to hear different words from Russia about the talks – as if they were ready for them. But. They talk about the talks but announce military mobilization. They talk about the talks but announce pseudo referendums in the occupied territories of Ukraine.
What is true then? The military mobilization in Russia is true. Sham referendums are also true. Russia wants war. It’s true. But Russia will not be able to stop the course of history. Mankind and the international law are stronger than one terrorist state. Russia will be forced to end this war. The war it has started.
I rule out that the settlement can happen on a different basis than the Ukrainian peace formula. The further the Russian terror reaches, the less likely it is that anyone in the world will agree to sit at one table with them.
And if my words will be followed by new Russian missiles and acts of terrorism it will only prove the weakness. Russia’s weakness. Its inability to prevail over us, its inability to prevail over the world.
It will only prove that 5 items of the Ukrainian peace formula must be implemented as soon as possible.
We are ready for peace. But true, honest and fair peace. That’s why the world is on our side.
And finally.
I want to thank one hundred and one countries that voted for my video address to take place. It was a vote not only about the format. It was the vote about principles.
Only seven countries voted against: Belarus, Cuba, North Korea, Eritrea, Nicaragua, Russia and Syria.
Seven. Seven who are afraid of the video address. Seven who respond to principles with a red button. Only seven.
One hundred and one – and seven.
Friends! If this coalition is against our determination, then I congratulate you all. Because this means that peace will prevail over any aggression, and that there is no obstacle for us to implement the peace formula.
I thank you for your attention!
Once again, I wish you all peace!
Glory to Ukraine!
His nightly address (emphasis mine):
Ukrainians!
We are bringing our people home. Exchange has just finished. Today we have 215 pieces of good news. 215!
This is clearly a victory for our state, for our entire society. And most importantly, for 215 families who will be able to see their loved ones in safety.
Hero of Ukraine Yevheniy Bova. Hero of Ukraine Lev Pashko. Hero of Ukraine Denys Prokopenko.
And a total of 108 warriors of “Azov”, a total of 188 heroes of “Azovstal” and Mariupol. Eight people were wounded during the Russian terrorist attack in Olenivka. A total of 215 heroes!
These are warriors of the National Guard, our army, the Navy, border guards, policemen, warriors of the territorial defense, employees of the Security Service of Ukraine and others.
Dmytro Kozatskyi – the famous Orest, a photographer from “Azovstal”. Mykola Kushch and Kostiantyn Nikitenko – the militants sentenced them to death.
Kateryna Polishchuk – “Ptashka”, Maryana Mamonova, Valentyna Zubko, Yana Shumovetska, Zoriana Repetska, Anastasia Chernenka.
We remember all our people and try to save every Ukrainian. This is the meaning of Ukraine, our essence, this is what distinguishes us from the enemy… We value every life!
And we will definitely do everything to save everyone who is in Russian captivity.
This operation was prepared for quite a long time. And there are several components in the exchange.
The first component: we exchanged one fan of Russia for 200 warriors. At first, we were offered to return 50 of our people in exchange for one of those in the detention center of the Security Service of Ukraine. We talked. We insisted. The number of 50 increased to 200. They are already in Ukraine. I think this is a good result.
Although even more than 200… Because among the released Ukrainian women there are those who are preparing to become mothers. And I am especially happy that it has now become possible to return them to Ukraine.
It is not a pity to give Medvedchuk in exchange for real warriors. He went through all the investigative actions provided for by law. Ukraine received from him everything necessary to establish the truth in the framework of criminal proceedings.
The second component – in addition to 200 warriors, we returned five more combat commanders for whom we had to carry out the biggest, the longest, the most difficult fight. They were threatened with the worst. Five superheroes.
In exchange for them, we gave 55 of those who deserve neither pity, nor sympathy, nor any words at all. Those who fought against Ukraine. And those who betrayed Ukraine. Those who we definitely do not need.
Ukraine agreed with Türkiye – I spoke about this with President Erdoğan – that our five commanders who are being released from captivity will be in complete safety, in comfortable conditions and under the personal protection of the President of Türkiye. Until the end of the war. But we will provide the opportunity for their families to see them.
Serhiy Volynskyi, Svyatoslav Palamar, Denys Prokopenko, Oleg Khomenko, Denys Shleha. Once again, I am thankful to President Erdoğan!
And, of course, we helped our friends – this is a matter of honor for Ukraine, a matter of our gratitude for helping our country. We managed to liberate 10 foreign citizens who were in Russian captivity.
Earlier we discussed this with Boris Johnson – he asked for assistance. With American friends. Now the following people will return home: five citizens of Great Britain, two citizens of the United States, one citizen of Morocco, one citizen of Sweden, one citizen of Croatia. The enemy sentenced them to a long prison term or the death penalty. We saved their lives.
All of them will return home through the mediation of Saudi Arabia. I am sincerely grateful to everyone who contributed for your help!
And I want to name those people thanks to whom we have these 215 pieces of good news today.
On the Ukrainian side, a pretty powerful group deals with the issue of release. It is managed by four: Head of the Office Yermak, Head of our intelligence Budanov, Head of the Security Service Maliuk and Rustem Umerov. And I also thank their team – Dmytro Usov, Ombudsman Lubinets, Minister Monastyrskyi.
Thank you, guys, for this Ukrainian success!
Already tomorrow we will introduce some other members of our group, which is working to save our people from captivity. We will also provide more details of this exchange. Please wait for the corresponding briefing.
Thank you once again to everyone who ensured this victory for Ukraine!
Congratulations to all our defenders who are returning home!
We remember everyone!
Glory to Ukraine!
This news has boosted morale in Ukraine. In Russia, not so much…
Putin the brilliant strategist. pic.twitter.com/XZT3emJjO5
— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) September 22, 2022
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s updated assessments for the situations in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Izium:
ZAPORIZHZHIA NUCLEAR PLANT /21 SEPT/ At 1400 UTC it was reported that RU artillery targeted equipment associated with Reactor No 6. The UN has declared that the situation is “unstable and untenable”. Most of the residents of Enerhodar remain w/o electricity or fresh water. pic.twitter.com/U6qagk07Vh
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 21, 2022
KHERSON/1215 UTC 21 SEP/ UKR Gen’l Staff reported 21 close air sorties had interdicted RU targets. UKR air defense (AD) claimed 4 Russian UAVs. On 20 SEP, there were reports that an Iranian supplied Shaheed-136 UCAV was downed on the M-14 HWY axis. 2 RU SAM complexes destroyed. pic.twitter.com/nzfoaxIMNt
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 21, 2022
IZIUM/1645 UTC 21 SEP/ UKR precision strike munitions destroyed RU ammunition depots at Svatove and Novoaidar. Deeply inserted Ukrainian SOF continues to feed targeting data on RU lines of communication and supply. pic.twitter.com/FckyX9dGb3
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 21, 2022
Someone was grousing last night that Pfarrer didn’t know what he was doing in regard to his map making. Errors do happen and pointing something out that doesn’t compute to you is fine, but let’s get a few things straight about just who Pfarrer is. Pfarrer was deployed in Lebanon with SEAL Team Four during the Lebanese Civil War, including the Marine barracks bombing. He was one of the Seal Team Six assault leaders on the mission that captured Abu Abbas and the other Achille Lauro hijackers. The one thing he does know is Special Warfare. Stating he doesn’t know what he’s doing because you don’t agree with his assessment, his map, or both is just not accurate.
So Putin and Shoigu announced a partial mobilization, which really isn’t a partial mobilization:
Separately, we have Shoigu's interview who has mentioned 300,000 people. https://t.co/jl8kK9KNvu. No reason to trust Shoigu on this.
— Sergey Radchenko (@DrRadchenko) September 21, 2022
We should probably expect people to be mobilised in the provinces. The provision of a contract soldier's salary, mentioned in Putin's ukaz, is aimed at mitigating opposition. The salaries are still far above average Russian salaries.
— Sergey Radchenko (@DrRadchenko) September 21, 2022
A measure of desperation, indicating that Putin is really on his last legs. We are about to find out, I guess, how popular this war is, really, among the Russian public.
— Sergey Radchenko (@DrRadchenko) September 21, 2022
Sept 21 (Reuters) – Moments after President Vladimir Putin called up 300,000 reservists on Wednesday in Russia's first such mobilisation since World War Two, a human rights lawyer said citizens had already started getting orders to enlist.
— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) September 21, 2022
On the Moscow metro, men could be seen studying call-up papers, and on the streets, some residents were concerned about the biggest escalation of the conflict since Russia invaded Ukraine almost 7 months ago.
— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) September 21, 2022
The service at this place sucks!
A quiet dinner in Moscow pic.twitter.com/AmN1pVetCR
— Alec Luhn (@ASLuhn) September 21, 2022
Reports are trickling out that arrested male protestors, or those arrested for being anywhere near a protest, are being immediately mobilized as part of Putin’s new partial mobilization:
Задержанного отпустили из ОВД. «Ему лично вручал [повестку] комиссар. На видео они снимали, как они вручают ему повестку и говорили, что он не может не принять ее, потому что он гражданин Российской Федерации», — рассказала его жена https://t.co/fpTaXk7Z1X
— Медиазона (@mediazzzona) September 21, 2022
The tweets (machine) translates as:
“My husband was detained on the Arbat, taken to the police department on Sokolina Gora, and there they issued a summons to the military registration and enlistment office for tomorrow. He signed it. There is a military commissar, ”said ValeriaThe detainee was released from the police department. “The commissar handed [the summons] personally to him. On video, they filmed how they handed him a summons and said that he could not refuse to accept it, because he was a citizen of the Russian Federation, ”said his wife
Just briefly, to wrap up, while we have to be cognizant of Putin’s nuclear bluster, we also need to keep in mind that despite either strikes on/into Russia proper and Russian occupied Crimea by Ukraine for several months, as well as sabotage in these locations, Putin has not escalated to using nukes. I’ve always been one of the nat-sec professionals who think this part of Russian military doctrine is a Psychological Operation to freeze US and NATO leaders decision-making. That doesn’t mean we ignore it, but I also don’t expect Putin to escalate that way.
And I think this “partial” mobilization is going to cause Putin more trouble than it was worth.
That’s enough for today.
Your daily Patron!
The president of one terrorist state announced a partial mobilisation 🤨
Well, we have to take care of the places for new (and still fresh, but not for a long time) occupants.
Here I'm digging 🐾 pic.twitter.com/vsKJCqxIdr— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 21, 2022
We‘re so glad to have you back. Welcome home, our heroes ❤️ Who doesn’t understand who I’m talking about: these are Mariupol's defenders, who have just been returned from captivity. I’m sooo happy!!!!! 😊 pic.twitter.com/kWECen3k2B
— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 21, 2022
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns
While the caption largely needs no translation…
Open thread!
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
Zelenskyy’s UN address was really moving for me. I really appreciate how skilled he is at not allowing the world outside of Ukraine to think we are safe from russia. By defending itself, Ukraine is defending the whole world, and we should never forget that for a moment.
Thank you for pushing back on the criticism of Pfarrer. It is appreciated.
As is Patron and his unmatched digging skills!
Thank you as always, Adam.
Gin & Tonic
That exchange is really interesting – 215 Ukrainians, including 108 from Azovstal, for 55 russians and one Ukrainian traitor. Ukraine is happy to be rid of Medvedchuk, but russia has no use for him, and at this point he really has no value. But imagine you’re the mother of a russian POW in Ukraine – you say WTF? Why does one useless guy count for 160 of our boys?
Also interesting perspective on those 5 Azovstal commanders being detained? hosted? by Erdogan. Putin and/or Shoigu must really be afraid of those guys to make part of the deal keeping them out of any potential battlefield positions.
Gin & Tonic
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: Pfarrer may know what he’s doing in warfare, but he seems to be insufficiently critical or skeptical of his sources. Earlier today he posted something as “BREAKING” which was pretty quickly and clearly shown to be fake, about people looking to exit russia via Finland – and I posted it here, without (to my discredit) doing my own due diligence. Once burned, twice shy, for me at any rate, but I’ve not seen any tendency on Pfarrer’s part for reflection or correction.
zhena gogolia
And you know this how?
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Gin & Tonic: Well, we’re all guilty of that kind of thing here and there, though certainly the larger your platform, the more prudent it is to be cautious. But most of the critiques here have been basically saying he doesn’t know what he’s doing with his maps, which doesn’t seem to be accurate. To be clear, I don’t know jack shit about it, but I trust Adam.
Salty Sam
My son-in-law works with a Russian national. His co-worker was very upset today; he’d gotten word that his family, on their way to vacation in Turkey, had not been allowed to board the plane, and his two brothers, of fighting age, had been detained. Shit’s gettin’ real over there…
Carlo Graziani
I agree that the nuclear talk has to be treated as bluster, probably mostly directed at shoring up his credibility with Russian natsec hawks. There is no plausible tactical use that gets Russian forces out of any of the jams that they are currently in without creating even more trouble for their un-NBC-trained or protected troops. There is no possibility of the Ukrainian government being brought to heel without driving a wedge between them and the US, and Biden just issued a quiet threat of his own concerning Russian escalation just last week, to remove any ambiguity on that score.
There is always the possibility that Putin is truly deluded about the potency of such threats, and about the strength of his international position, and could do something dumb “because he’s mad”, but I think that that is a too-easy caricature. He certainly has his blind spots — selective reading of Russian history are conspicuous among them — but that doesn’t mean he’s lost all ability to read an international chessboard. And I don’t believe he’s suicidal, or thinks of Samson options. I think he’s a snake, but he wants to survive.
zhena gogolia
@Salty Sam: Everybody’s getting draft notices. (Anecdata)
Jackie
Zelenskyy’s speech to the UN was so good, so speaking from his heart…
All I could think of, we Democrats HAVE TO HOLD THE HOUSE!
Cameron
https://youtu.be/8-bgiiTxhzM
Adam L Silverman
@zhena gogolia: They didn’t start protesting until the draft notifications began to be issued.
Cameron
https://youtu.be/8-bgiiTxhzM
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I’m not saying he’s infallible, just that he knows his business. There are a number of things he’s posted that I’ve looked at, decided I was uncomfortable with how it was sourced, and didn’t post it here.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman:
Weird auto-correct there. But I’m not really disagreeing with you, I think my key point was that he doesn’t seem ever to correct himself.Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Jackie: AGREED!!!
Jay
CaseyL
@Adam L Silverman:
The belated protests are a risk equation: before mobilization, you risked a long and brutal prison sentence, whereas saying nothing cost you nothing.
After mobilization, the thinking may be: prison v. certain death on the battlefield.
Since Russia is automatically drafting anyone one protests, the equation may change again.
Tony G
@zhena gogolia: That is probably true, but the opposition amounts to the same thing, I think. Anecdotes are not data, but … When I was a teenager in the early seventies in a blue-collar town, every kid I knew was opposed to the Vietnam War. Not, in most cases, because the kids cared very much about Vietnamese lives. They were concerned about their own personal asses being drafted and sent over there. Opposition is opposition, regardless of the reason for it.
Another Scott
Funny how that works.
(via Oryx)
Just about all the maps of the conflict that I’ve seen on Twitter have been almost unintelligible. The animated ones showing major changes are often better. I won’t criticize the people doing the work though. The fog of war is real even for people trying their best.
Thanks Adam.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Wow, that was brutal. And true. What a great UN speech by Zelenskyy!
Not even China and India voted against Zelenskyy’s video address to the UN
Another Scott
@Jay: :-) That works on so many levels.
Can you imagine trying that with a normal American (or Canadian) fridge??!
Cheers,
Scott.
Ken
Am I completely out in left field to think that the reason for the delay in broadcasting a taped speech was to allow some people to leave the country?
Jay
@Ken:
The costs of flights from Moscow to Armenia, (one of the few available destinations for Commercial Passenger flights from Russia), went from $180 this morning to $2800.
Lyrebird
Yes. I am in awe of the negotiators, for their tenacity.
I was afraid to hope that any of the Azov battalion would be released, but I have been asking the FSM repeatedly. Loosely speaking.
jonas
@Gin & Tonic:
Yeah, even a lot of Ukrainian commenters are taking him to task lately for retweeting stuff that turns out to be either misleading or just plain wrong. Wish he or his people would vet stuff better.
jonas
@Jay:
I thought I saw somewhere today that the Kremlin has now ordered Russian airlines to block the sale of tickets out of the country to men between 18 and 55 or something like that. Holy shit, if true.
Carlo Graziani
@Ken: It’s in “Who tf knows” territory, and likely to stay there a while. But we do know that Putin hates the idea of mobilization, because it compromises the sense of normalcy that he’s striven so hard to maintain in Russia. The whole “Special Military Operation” euphemism, and forced avalanche of happy-talk bullshit about the war on TV testifies to how much he wanted to preserve that normalcy. And now he’s been forced to blow it up.
It could just be that the delay was due to the fact that it took several drafts of the speech, and many fortifying rounds of meetings with hawkish advisors to get him to go through with it.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
What good is a high salary if you’re likely going to end up in a body bag? I think everyone in Russia is finally getting to see how incompetent and poorly outfitted the military is
Also, if I understand the tweets above, the Russian government is lying about the magnitude of mobilization and it’s not just the 300,000 reservists they plan on shipping off to war?
Spanky
How long before we hear of Russians trying to escape to North Korea?
jonas
@Carlo Graziani:
Even more than that, he’s essentially had to admit out loud that because they’re up against a Ukrainian resistance using NATO/US-supplied weapons and tactics, things have not gone well. So, if it were just Ukrainians on their own, they would have wrapped this up months ago, but because they’re dealing with US and western-supplied weapons, they’re getting their asses kicked and have to call up reserves. All to prove that NATO won’t have the Russian military to push around any more!
Ok. Roger that, Vlady.
Carlo Graziani
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Actually, that brings out an interesting point.
To this point, most people in Russia do not, in fact, know very much at all about exactly how badly things are going in the war, because of the relentless diet of bullshit that their media has served up. But they could have accessed the Telegram channels, both Russia’s hyperpatriotic-yet-informative ones and (I believe) foreign ones, had they bothered to do so. They just had little interest or incentive to do so.
But the incentive structure just changed.
What if Putin just broke his own informational control machine?
jonas
@Spanky: Wouldn’t surprise me at this point, although I also think the NK’s would pretty much send them right back, 1. in order not to antagonize Putin and 2. what the hell are they going to do with a bunch of Russian refugees? They can barely feed their own population. Maybe if it was rich Russians who could bribe Kim…
jonas
@Carlo Graziani:
There’s a great interview today in the LA Times with Orlando Figes, perhaps the leading scholar of Russian history in the UK, who talks about public sentiment about the war in Russia. He thinks younger people, who are more internet-savvy, are generally well-informed about what’s really going on, even if they don’t express their views publicly. That’s a big problem because this mobilization order also mostly targets this very demographic. It’s not going to go well. We’re already seeing a rush for the exits by anyone with the means to get out and it’s only going to get worse.
Parfigliano
They didn’t start protesting until the draft notifications began to be issued.
Omnes Omnibus
@Parfigliano: Refresh my memory….. When did opposition to the Vietnam War really grow?
Steeplejack
Re that Christo Grozev tweet: goddamn, who’s the user-interface genius who thought dark gray text on a black background is a good look? Appears to be [squinting] Igor Strelkov. Way to get your message out, bro’.
ETA: Maybe it’s an artifact of the screen capture, but still.
jonas
The idea of mobilizing 300k Russian reservists (or more, if rumors are true that the 300k number is a feint and Putin has secretly demanded more) is whatever the word for “wishful thinking” is in Russian. There’s no way they can be adequately trained or equipped at this point to seriously contend with the Ukrainians. LTG Mark Hertling explains here: https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1572571676524838915?s=20&t=Tj-oOjB2A3jnF7X7pHiUpQ
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Omnes Omnibus:
Thanks to raven, I also learned a lot of the opposition to the Vietnam War also came from within the armed forces of the time, severely hampering the American war effort. It was particularly bad in the Navy reportedly. A lot of draftees didn’t want to be there
cain
@Parfigliano: It would have pretty much happened here as well. With Trumpers being the first to try to get the fuck out followed by the leftists. Well actually the Trumpers will probably be safe as they probably are severely unhealthy given the kind of places they visit. Brain rot.
Plus, can you imagine – they’ll be going into the battlefield with their heads filled with QANON shit.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Carlo Graziani:
That’s a good point. Potentially more people are going to search out the Telegram channels now. They might see the truth for once. Now the question is, will the Kremlin try to censor/ban the Telegram channels/milbloggers criticizing the handling of the war?
James E Powell
@Omnes Omnibus:
There was some guy in Wisconsin who stirred up the college kids.
JoyceH
As I understand the news reporting, not only is Putin calling up the reserves, but the guys already at the front are now there for the duration and won’t be sent home when their contracts expire. I think we ought to expect mass mutiny any minute now.
Ishiyama
@Omnes Omnibus: 1965. Lyndon Johnson told the nation have no fear of escalation I am trying everyone to please. Though it isn’t really war I’m sending 50,000 more to help save Viet Nam from the Vietnamese.
Parfigliano
@Omnes Omnibus: About then it metastasized
Bupalos
@Carlo Graziani: In addition to your considerations there that I agree with, I think you have to ask yourself even if Putin’s nuclear threats were real, how can that really be allowed to change decision-making? It’s quite clear that Ukraine is not the last of his territorial interests, and in fact it’s really hard to say where his territorial interests end. “Former glory” is a hell of a drug.
Bupalos
I wouldn’t underestimate how many folks in the provinces don’t have access to alternative sources, or how many people even in the bigger cities have been browbeaten into not wanting to access alternative sources.
way2blue
Each day with morning coffee, I crawl through the twitter-verse hoping to see that Ukraine has severed another Russian tentacle attached to their land. Today. Between Zelenskyy’s eloquent words to the UN and Biden’s unvarnished words as well. And the release of so many POWs. A pressure release. A lighter note to end the day. Thanks Adam!
Chetan Murthy
There’s a question that’s been nagging me. In WWII, Russia used cannon fodder batallions, sure, but they also knew how to do combined arms and at real scale. In UA, it seeems like Russia has forgotten all about the operational art they knew in WWII. And that’s across the entire Russian army: it seems like not one unit actually knows how to do the things that Zhukov earned renown for having accomplished. Not one unit.
And I just wonder to myself: is it really the case that the entire Russian officer corps is incompetent? Is it really that bad-off?
P.S. I do recognize that quantity has a quality of its own, and that artillery can make up for a lot. But still …. even at the beginning of the war, when RU had a massive armament advantage and supposedly crack troops, none of them seem to have performed up-to-snuff.
Chetan Murthy
@way2blue:
Between the Azovstal POWs — heroes — coming home, and Zelenskiyy’s UN speech, Biden’s UN speech, and the 11th Circuit decision, it feels like a good day. I have to say, seeing the images of the liberated heroes of Mariupol this morning really gave me a lift.
Bupalos
@Adam L Silverman: I must be misunderstanding you.
I’m directly comparing live streams from St. Petersburg 2 days after the invasion and today. The earlier protests seem larger and included signage. Are you saying that Russians didn’t have protests until this mobilization, and that these protests are larger?
What is your source here?
Chetan Murthy
@Bupalos: My memory is, those protests stopped real damn quick. Real damn quick. There was a lot of writing about how many Russians were initially against the war, but changed their minds. I’m taking around late spring, this writing.
divF
@Ishiyama: Tom Paxton!
@Omnes Omnibus: @James E Powell: Yes, young men were pissed about the prospect of returning from Vietnam in a box.
TPTB tried to take the heat off in stages. First, the introduction of the draft lottery, which meant you knew where you stood when you turned 18. I turned 18 in 1952, and drew a lottery number of 52. The selective service still had a 2S deferment (undergraduate education) so I just scraped through since my deferment ran out in June 1973, exactly at the same time that the draft ended. And let’s not forget Vietnamization, Nixon’s way of hanging South Vietnam out to dry without saying “we lost”.
Sebastian
@Carlo Graziani:
Yeah, the whole thing is such a bad move.
Things must be catastrophic as they are already hauling arrested protesters to the front without training.
Chetan Murthy
@Bupalos:
The image in the tweet says it all: “Iranian women have bigger balls than Russian citizens”.
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy: Remember that VVP’s russia lies about everything. There were lots of reports early on, and in the diary reported on a few weeks ago, that the troops were never told that they were invading Ukraine. It was all “exercises” and such.
Nobody being rounded up now thinks that it’s anything other than a war. They now know that VVP has been lying to them the whole time. Why would anyone want to fight for him in another country, no matter how much they like the idea of Greater russia?
I can’t see the war going any better for him now. There’s still fighting in Syria, for crying out loud. Ukraine will never let VVP win, no matter how long it takes him to realize that he’s lost.
Cheers,
Scott.
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy: This matches my memory
Chetan Murthy
I feel like it’s worth noting: sure, I’d say a kind word in the House of Commons, for these Russian protestors. Sure why not.
Bupalos
@Chetan Murthy: Talking about Russian public opinion is absolutely a fools game. Making up this stuff “they thought x, then they changed their minds…” it’s a kind of laughable simplicity that is heightened by the fact that you’re talking about a totalitarian state with a maimed sense of social trust that took generations to breed.
I mean, people love simple narratives and comparisons. Maybe need is the better word. All I will say is this lumped up bagging on Russian protesters is both counterproductive and… I don’t really have a word for it. Germans probably do.
Chetan Murthy
@Bupalos: The early protests stopped, and never resumed, not until finally these fucking Russians realized their necks were gonna be on the line. It’s pretty telling. But hey, sure, I’m happy to say a kind word in the House of Commons for them. Doesn’t mean I think they’re allies.
Chetan Murthy
@Bupalos:
I disagree: these Russians are protestinng the prospect of getting shortened by a foot, and that’s all. Getting ridiculed by Westerners won’t change that they’re still in line to get their necks chopped, so it won’t change their position on the war.
It’s pure selfishness on their part. So I don’t feel any compassion for them.
MobiusKlein
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): why of all places does Nicaragua vote that way?
Bupalos
@Chetan Murthy: Taking this kind of simplistic view and wanting to say “the crowd was thinking THIS, now it is thinking THAT” is laughable. It would be mostly laughable within a social psychology you could fully inhabit. Doing this with Russians is just [[[chef’s kiss]]]
Chetan Murthy
@Bupalos: They. Didn’t. Protest. For. Six. Months.
Marc
I also turned 18 in ’72 (which I think you meant), but my memory is a little different. IIRC, the draft system changed in ’71, ending the education deferment and replacing the local draft board quota system (which could be easily gamed if your parents knew the right people) with the birthday lottery. As a practical matter, this meant that middle/upper class 18 year olds were then just as subject to being drafted as poor kids. That ended up focusing a lot of new minds on protesting the war.
Chetan Murthy
@Tony G: IIRC, most of America supported the Vietnam War until it went bad. ISTR a number of posts over at LG&M about this very thing: sure, there were kids opposed to the war, but their parents? nopes.
Same thing with the Iraq War:
Bupalos
@Chetan Murthy: That’s your own issue if you believe in this good-humans/ bad-humans morality play thing, and whatever you want to do with that. Meanwhile it’s an objective fact that the protests and internal opposition to the war FOR WHATEVER REASON is good. It’s an objective fact that it’s really really hard for a variety of reasons for this to happen in Russia. And folks doing the “good, hope Putin rounds them up and conscripts them and they get killed, they deserve it for being selfish” bit are being…you fill it in.
Do you feel this way about Vietnam war protestors? Real human people have a variety of capacities for looking outside themselves rather than trying to survive. Consider it may be a lot harder to have this capacity in Russia than you or I have.
Chetan Murthy
@Bupalos: I refer you to this comment: https://balloon-juice.com/2022/09/21/war-for-ukraine-day-210-8-pm-9-am-close-enough-for-government-work/#comment-8628156
Yes, I’m glad they’re protesting. But there’s a significant and relevant moral difference between these protestors, and Ukrainians. Just as there was a significant and relevant moral difference between Britain/France, and the USSR, in WWII.
Bupalos
@Chetan Murthy: I’m not going to get into relative morality here, mostly because I’m not going to do this “let’s pretend this very complicated group that contains a lot of different kinds of humans doing a lot of different things with different meanings and risks and levels of concern for others can be lumped up and summarized and tweeted about.” There’s nothing more understandable than the desire to do this right now, but it really has little to do with describing reality and a lot more to do with psychological needs.
There are heroes on the ground in Russia. Hopefully more will emerge because so far it’s not nearly enough.
Chetan Murthy
@Bupalos: They’re not heroes: they’re protecting their own asses. Let them pick up weapons and shoot OMON, then I’ll call them heroes.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
Look, I gotta be honest. I think we should have a little more sympathy for some of the Russian public. It takes a lot of guts to stand up to a totalitarian regime that will have no qualms of murdering/arresting protestors. Sometimes I’ve wondered myself if I’d have the courage to do that if the time came. People have families and being dead or in jail would do them no good, obviously
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): And I agree, hence my comments #57, #59 re: House of Commons. I assume you recognize the reference.
Marc
I checked, the draft lotteries actually started in ’69, existing undergraduate deferments were phased out by ’72. The draft ended July ’73, which is the year those (like myself) who turned 18 in ’72 would have been inducted. This is also more in keeping with my memories of protests intensifying while I was in high school.
Omnes Omnibus
Which, as some people seem to have missed it, was the point of of my question. Were those people wholly self-centered or did proximity to the war open their eyes? Or might they have been human with a weird mixture of reasons and motivations?
Bupalos
Now tell me about how redheaded people are. Or Italians. How are they? Do green-eyed girls make good sushi?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Marc:
That’s interesting. I always assumed the anti-war protests were most intense in the late 60s
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
“Enemy of my enemy is my friend” is what you mean, right?
I suppose. I would never consider them the kind of heroes the Ukrainians have been, but perhaps this may open their eyes? Maybe the bad news on the war has also emboldened them as well?
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Just like Stalin’s USSR. Enemy of our enemy.
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Just like Stalin’s USSR. Enemy of our enemy.
phdesmond
@Cameron:
thanks for the dance music — i needed some exercise!
bookworm1398
I was hoping that Putin would be willing to concede defeat. I guess no chance of that, he will need to be overthrown. I don’t know if the anti-draft sentiment will be enough to do that, can only hope so. We can’t really judge by one day of protests and fill flights, Russia had those in March also and it wasn’t enough.
Marc
First lottery-based inductions, Kent and Jackson State shootings in ’70. Draft deferments limited and Pentagon papers leaked in ’71. The bombing campaign in Cambodia became known in ’72 and Nixon was running for reelection. US withdrawal from Vietnam and end of draft in ’73. So, yes, I believe the biggest protests were during the early 70s. ’68 and ’69 were more about the Summer of Love and Woodstock.
sab
@Marc: There were big marches on Washington in 1969.
ColoradoGuy
As I remember it (I was in college at the time), the Tet Offensive blew a hole in the standard “Light at the End of the Tunnel” media narrative. It made it obvious to all that Victory was never going to happen, no matter how much happy talk came from General Westmorland and his media minions. The appalling story about taking, re-taking, and eventual abandonment of Hamburger Hill … an utterly pointless battle for nothing … also left an impression that the USA had no clue what it was doing.
By 1970 just about everyone knew that Victory was completely impossible, and attempts to “stabilize” South Vietnam were going to be futile, given the weak performance of the ARVN and the chaotic leadership of the country. It was clear that the only reason young men were getting drafted was the sheer momentum of the war machine, which was blindly grinding on, with no apparent purpose other than “maintaining face” for the US President.
Ruckus
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
“A lot of draftees didn’t want to be there”
Just to be clear as far as I know, no one was drafted into the navy. Now they did get a lot of enlistments of people not wanting to be drafted into the army or marines and sent directly to Vietnam.
Martin
@Chetan Murthy: Nice to get confirmation when you’re the 1 in 10.
Martin
@Chetan Murthy: Yeah. I remember the movie ‘Defending your Life’ (not great) and there’s a useful scene where Daniel is being judged of what he made of his life and he’s arguing about having overcome his fears but it’s pointed out that no, he really didn’t because all of those bold acts he remembers were just self-preservation. There’s nothing brave or noble about saving your own ass.
What was notable to me about the Iran protests was that the flashpoint was the morality police killing a woman for improper attire, but the ones battling the cops were guys – not nearly as subject to the morality police.
But what stands out to me about the Russian protests is how futile it is. Peaceful protesting isn’t going to get any change by the very nature of the thing you are protesting. You’re facing death no matter what – the only real choice is whether you do it fighting Ukrainians or Putin’s regime. I know what I’d pick.
Ruckus
@Marc:
You’ve got it right. I enlisted 2 days before they announced the draft lottery. That was in 1969, the first drawing was not long before the year’s end and my number was 15. No one I knew wanted to go to war, although there seemed to be a not unreasonable number that did want to go and fight. By the middle of 1973 it was getting close to the end and for some reason I was given an early discharge. Good times. I remember the day, last time I walked off the gangplank and stepped onto solid ground was July 6, 1973 at 11:59 am. The order from the Pentagon was to discharge me by July 6, 1973 at 12 noon. They had one minute to spare.
YY_Sima Qian
An interesting note I read on Chinese social media: the Russian Empire fell apart in 1917 in a series of coups that utilized the newly mobilized troops stationed near St. Petersburg & the Baltic Fleet, draftees that joined the coups so as not to fight on the Eastern Front. (Of course, the later Red/White Civil War proved quite bloody, anyway.)
Bobby Thomson
Revolutions succeed or fail based on whether soldiers are willing to shoot civilians.
YY_Sima Qian
@Bobby Thomson: If the rank & file join the revolution…
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Gin & Tonic: It’s also interesting the exchange comes right after Putin was rallying the Mother Land to fight to the last. Almost like Putin’s speech was to distract the Russians from things like this exchange.
Gvg
@Chetan Murthy: nobody has ever stood up for them including their own neighbors and I don’t mean neighboring countries, I mean their own countrymen. Remember, this is a country that has had regimes that have taught that it is right to spy on the neighbors or turn in their own parents and that was never really overturned and denounced as immoral, only put away as not really working well enough sort of.
I have been thinking about the comparison to Iran, and wondering what social constructs, what reliable friendships do these people have that would enable them to discuss safely ideas for a better society, figure out who could be relied on if they wanted to overthrow this government and what they would replace it with that wasn’t just new boss same as the old boss…..I don’t know how they could get there. I am not sure how they could even get to a new boss almost the same except not invading or threatening nukes…there would be a struggle over who came out on top. The ordinary people have been spied on before, hauled off to prison and tortured and taught to not think or care and not trust each other and also not to be trustworthy, to need food and money so much that they would work for the government because that is all the choice there was. It’s been like that really for 100 years. The church came back in Russia but it’s a puppet too. So what social organization is going to turn out to be the secret ingredient that links Russians to each other? Something may already exist. I don’t know enough about Russia, but I haven’t heard of anything. Iran had it’s revolution out of religion. Revolutions and reformations of institutions and countries have to have organizations that people trust and turn to or nothing happens. Oh, and Russia is learning even its military isn’t so great.
Geminid
@Martin: One difference between Russian and Iran is the relative youth of Iran’s populace. I read tbat 45% of Iran’s people are under the age of 35.
The videos of demonstrations posted by Iran News Wire show a lot of young people. These protest spread very rapidly to cities all across Iran on news Friday that Mahsa Amini had died. Pictures of her lying in her hospital bed in a coma were propagated widely the day before, so her death was no surprise, and the brutal actions of the “morality police” that led to it were well known.
Social media greatly accelerated tbe unrest, but yesterday NetBlocks.org reported that Iran’s government was suppressing moble phone networks and internet connection.
This is an ominous sign; in “Bloody November,” 2019 the internet was blocked in Iran for six days, during which time security forces murdered 1500 protesters (by Reuters’ account), using machine gun fire, rooftop snipers and even armed helicopters. This suppressed the large demonstrations, but isolated protests kept flaring up over the seven months that followed.
These demonstrations are at least as great a threat to the regime as those in 2019 and the new president is a hardliner with a history of state sanctioned murder. I think the question now is not whether the regime will order a savage response by security forces, but whether they will comply.
zhena gogolia
@Adam L Silverman: There are a lot of people in Russia who support the war as long as someone else is fighting it. There are a LOT of people in Russia who hate the war but feel hopeless, because protesting does nothing. Protesting will not topple the government of Russia. But I would not presume that the people who went out on the streets yesterday and got their heads bashed in by police (a completely predictable result) were in the former group rather than the latter. You have presumed that they are. But then NEITHER OF US KNOWS, DO WE? So why pronounce on it? Why impugn the motives of people who are showing much more bravery than I could ever show?
zhena gogolia
@Tony G: Absolutely. The Vietnam war protests were not primarily motivated by concern for the Vietnamese.
zhena gogolia
@Omnes Omnibus: Bingo.
zhena gogolia
@jonas: I was watching a video of Bykov last night, and when he needed the phrase “wishful thinking” he just said “wishful thinking.” In English.
zhena gogolia
@Bupalos: You seem to have a better handle on Russia than most people here.
zhena gogolia
@Chetan Murthy: After the early protests, it was announced that protesting would incur a 7-year prison sentence. And that sentence was imposed on a lot of people. So the protests stopped. How long would they continue here under the same circumstances and the same threat?
zhena gogolia
@Chetan Murthy: Did anyone say there wasn’t a difference between them and Ukrainians?
zhena gogolia
@Chetan Murthy: WHAT WEAPONS? GUNS ARE ILLEGAL IN RUSSIa
Geminid
@Marc: My recollection that the changes in the draft that ended many deferments also included a provision that no draftees would be sent to Vietnam. This was made possible by the drawdown of US forces in that country, part of the so-called Vietnamization.
evodevo
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): 1968-70 was the time the protests hit the Univ of Ky, which up till then was a typical southern party school, where the ROTC/frat boy mentality ruled. The gov had called out the National Guard for Derby Day in 1967 – we were drinking in the infield, and harassing the guard guys was the favorite drunk stunt of the day. By 69-70 there was a huge on-campus riot where the old wooden ROTC barracks bldg was set on fire. Mr.Evodevo had a teaching deferment and we were living back in the hometown by that time, since if you went home and signed up to teach, you got a pass. However, he got on the bad side of the local nazified school superintendent, who laid him off and ratted him out to the draft board, and he got called up. Luckily for us he had bad knees and high blood pressure, and got a 1-Y deferment, and went across the river to Ohio to teach in another system. NO ONE in those days was ignorant about what was happening over there. The WWII generation was all for our generation being sent over; but even among the ROTC/officer volunteer types, younger guys knew the score…
Geminid
@zhena gogolia: That is the situation in Iran as well. Although I wonder if Iraqi Kurds will start supplying arms to their Kurdish brethren across the border. Iran’s Kurdistan Province was Ms. Amini’s home, and the first six reported killings of protesters were in that province’s cities.
Carlo Graziani
Quoth @Omnes Omnibus:
This.
Barry
@Adam L Silverman: “They didn’t start protesting until the draft notifications began to be issued.”
Aside from the chickenhawk aspect, it’s Russia. You keep your head down.
Carlo Graziani
@ColoradoGuy: Yeah, Tet was part of a collecion of things that was starting to light up, in the consciousness of Americans, the fact that the US government had been systematically lying to the public about Vietnam, the meaning of the conflict, and the US role there, since the early 1960s. It was the first time, for most Americans, that the very notion that they might not be able to trust their own government’s public statements on a matter of national security for years at a time had to be seriously contemplated. It broke something.
Jinchi
I don’t even think it’s a question of courage. If public protest only ends up in arrest, incarceration and the occasional trip out a 20 story window, it’s hard to expect most people to engage in it. Far more likely that they’d prefer to remain as anonymous as possible and try internal sabotage, like the woman who torched a Russian general’s car, or whoever’s been lighting the mysterious fires that keep occuring at Russian military facilities.
I have a harder time understanding the logic of someone like Alexei Navalny, who returned to Russia after Putin put out a hit on him. What did that accomplish?
Bill Arnold
@Bupalos:
????????????????
The possibility that that decisions may lead to the deaths of billions of humans must affect decision making processes. WTF? That sentence resembles statements like those made by psychopathic propagandists on Russian State Television. (My opinion is that the worst of them should be pithed with a bullet to the back of the head, or otherwise removed from positions of influence.)
RaflW
@Chetan Murthy: “days after the initial invasion [of Iraq], 9 out of 10 Americans believed it was ‘at least somewhat likely’ that the United States would find evidence of these weapons”
This is such a damning indictment of the US press, tho. I was in the 10% who was reading about Hans Blix finding nothing, and I was incredibly suspicious of GWB’s sudden need to pull the inspectors weeks before they were to complete their work. Blix, looking back, is more kind to Bush & Blair than I am (he says it wasn’t bad fait. It was, tho.)
sab
@evodevo: My dad was a WWII and Korean war vet and he was outspokenly against the Vietnam war by 1964. He even tried to move us to Canada in 1965 to protect my 10 year old brother, but mom wouldn’t go even though her family had Canadian ties. My brother missed being drafted by one year.
Bill Arnold
@RaflW:
Likewise. It takes almost impossibly strong discipline to entirely hide a nuclear weapons program, and they were finding zero evidence. The talking-up of the invasion was very clearly a warmonger project and the US population was believing the lies.
I did win a bet on the timing of the 2003 invasion. Bet after Valentine’s Day. (Always bet on schedule slippage. :-)
Urban Suburbanite
@Chetan Murthy:
I think there are a lot of failure points in the Russian military. It’s dependent on poorly trained and brutalized conscripts who are lucky if they get 80s-vintage Soviet gear (the press ganged cannon fodder in Donetsk and Luhansk are issued Moisin rifles and steel helmets from the 40s), and the forces in Ukraine are comprised of multiple factions who really hate each other and there’s no unified command. The Rosgvardia forces won’t answer to the Chechens, Wagner answers to no one, the Chechens are busy torturing prisoners or burning through ammo for social media clout, and so on.
Zhukov himself was lucky not to have been executed after he wrecked the Japanese in Manchuria. He and his subordinates were legit worried that Stalin would have them executed when they returned, because compotent generals don’t fare too well. There’s a reason that the current head of the Russian military is a construction foreman, and not an actual commander.
The Red Army in WW2 also had the advantage of a lot of American support. Zhukov would have struggled without the convoys dropping off supplies.