Here is Olga Wilson’s description of her piece:
A photo of a dog named Crimea. It’s sitting on ruins where his house just recently was located.
On September 29 occupiers attacked private sector of Dnipro. As a result, the whole family died: grandmother, mother and two children – boy and girl.
I’ve seen it reported that the father is a Ukrainian soldier deployed forward, which is why he is not among the dead… Just let that sink in for a minute. The reason the father was not killed in the bombardment of his family’s home in Dnipro is because he’s safer deployed forward fighting the Russian invaders of Ukraine.
A bit more on the dog named Krym/Crimea:
The dog Krym became blind and deaf after the explosion. He is currently being examined by a veterinarian.
— Ukrainian Sunflower 🌻 Слава Україні🇺🇦 (@UASunflower) September 29, 2022
This dog, Krym, still waits for granny Alla, mom Natasha, kids Vasylisa & Ivan. For a day now, he has been sitting, crying, on the edge of a 20-m crater, in the place where his house used to be. The dog is crying while russians launch missiles at Dnipro again. pic.twitter.com/7zBjcHCrZg
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 30, 2022
It’s been quite the day, so let’s run through the basics and get to what is going on in Lyman and Putin’s decision to once again declare war on everyone he considers to be the West, especially the US.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Ukrainians!
And all our friends and allies!
De facto allies. Today, here in Kyiv, in the heart of our country, we are taking a decisive step for the security of the entire community of free nations.
We see who threatens us. Who is ready to kill and maim. Who in order to expand his zone of control does not stop at any savagery.
On February 24, the first full-scale attack on Ukraine was carried out. The first!
Russia would not have stopped at our borders if we had not stopped it. Other states would have been under attack. The Baltic countries, Poland, Moldova and Georgia, Kazakhstan…
Russia claimed to subjugate various nations of Europe and Asia. Claimed six months ago. This criminal ambition is breaking down in Ukraine. It was broken down in the suburbs of Kyiv and Chernihiv. In “Azovstal”. In the Sumy region and Kharkiv region. On Zmiinyi Island. It will be broken down in Donbas and in the south of Ukraine when we liberate them. Definitely – in Crimea, in the free Ukrainian Crimea.
The entire territory of our country will be liberated from this enemy – the enemy not only of Ukraine, but also of life itself, humanity, law and truth.
Russia already knows this. It feels our power. It sees that it is here, in Ukraine, that we prove the strength of our values. And that is why it is in a hurry. Organizes this farce with the attempted annexation. Tries to steal something that does not belong to it. Wants to rewrite history and redraw borders with murders, torture, blackmail and lies.
Ukraine will not allow that.
Today I held a meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. The meeting of the National Security and Defense Council has just ended. We have a decision.
First – it is only the path of strengthening Ukraine and ousting the occupiers from our entire territory that restores peace. We will complete this path.
Second – Ukraine was and remains a leader in negotiation efforts. It was our state that always offered Russia to reach an agreement on coexistence on equal, honest, decent and fair terms. It is obvious that this is impossible with this Russian president. He does not know what dignity and honesty are. Therefore, we are ready for a dialogue with Russia, but already with another president of Russia.
And third – we must de jure record everything we have already achieved de facto. It is in Ukraine that the fate of democracy in the confrontation with tyranny is being decided. It is here, with the firmness of our state borders, that we can secure the firmness of the borders of all European states. We can guarantee that no one else will dare to bring war back to our continent.
It is here, in Ukraine, that the values of our Euro-Atlantic community have obtained real vital energy. The strength of the nation that fights for freedom, and the strength of the nations that help in this fight.
We are de facto allies. This has already been achieved. De facto, we have already completed our path to NATO. De facto, we have already proven interoperability with the Alliance’s standards, they are real for Ukraine – real on the battlefield and in all aspects of our interaction.
We trust each other, we help each other and we protect each other. This is what the Alliance is. De facto.
Today, Ukraine is applying to make it de jure. Under a procedure consistent with our significance for the protection of our entire community. Under an accelerated procedure.
We know it’s possible. We have seen Finland and Sweden start accession to the Alliance this year without a Membership Action Plan.
This is fair. This is also fair for Ukraine. This is the consolidation at the level of the treaty of what has already been achieved in life and what are our values.
We understand that this requires the consensus of all members of the Alliance. We understand that it is necessary to reach such a consensus. And therefore, while this is happening, we offer to implement our proposals regarding security guarantees for Ukraine and all of Europe in accordance with the Kyiv Security Compact, which was developed and presented to our partners.
Security has no alternatives. But determination is needed to guarantee it.
We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine’s application for accelerated accession to NATO.
Today, the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine adopted a decision to impose sanctions on significant individuals and legal entities of Russia who did not have the courage to speak out in defense of humanity and international law, or who in one way or another are involved in aggressive steps against Ukraine and the community of democratic nations.
And at the same time, I am addressing the people’s deputies of Ukraine: at the next session of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, a draft law on the nationalization of all Russian assets will be considered, which should significantly simplify this procedure. Please endorse this bill without delay.
We are completing the dismantling of Russian influence on Ukraine, Europe and the world.
Glory to Ukraine!
I understand why the Ukrainian leadership decided to do this now, but I also know that it is going to be symbolic on their part. I also know, in fact I feared it was going to happen and then it did, that the US and the NATO member state messaging on this is going to play right into Putin’s hands. CNBC has the details on Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs (APNSA) Jake Sullivan’s response (emphasis mine):
The White House signaled clearly that it will not support Ukraine’s request to fast track its application for membership in NATO, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskky had signed earlier in the day.
Just hours after Zelenskyy announced what he called Ukraine’s “decisive step” towards joining the alliance, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Ukraine’s application to NATO “should be taken up at a different time.”
“Our view is that the best way for us to support Ukraine is through practical on the ground support in Ukraine” Sullivan told reporters at the White House.
The remarks are not a new position for the Biden administration.
Sullivan’s statement comes as Sweden and Finland at on the verge of being admitted to NATO. Hungary and Turkey have yet to sign-off.
I understand the Biden administration’s strategic calculus. The second highlighted section is pitch perfect, but given that I’m sure the Ukrainians gave the Biden administration a heads up this was coming, there had to be better phrasing that could have been used to make the first point. Because the Kremlin is going to be all over “should be taken up at a different time.”
I think, and I’ve written this here before, that I think the Biden administration has done a very good job overall in regards to aiding Ukraine. Even when I’ve been frustrated that it hasn’t always moved at a faster pace. But something I’ve observed over the years as a national security professional is a very strange phenomenon. Up to the Trump administration national security folks, Republican national security professionals, I’m referring to the the political appointees, have tended to be far more small “l” liberal in their willingness to aggressively use national power. Democratic national security professionals, still referring to the political appointees, have tended to be far more small “c” conservative in their willingness to employ national power. Just a semi-informed observation.
For you acquisitions and logistics junkies – and not only do you know who you are, but based on your comments we do too – the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisitions and Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Policy held a media roundtable today regarding Ukraine Defense Contract Group. I’m going to copy and past a chunk of the transcript, but not all of it. So if you need a full fix you’ll have to click across.
Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition and Sustainment) LaPlante and Deputy Under Secretary of Defense (Policy) Baker Hold a Media Roundtable on the Recent Meeting of the National Armaments Directors Under the Auspices of the Ukraine Defense Contract Group
Sept. 30, 2022STAFF: All right, good afternoon, everybody. Today, I’m joined by Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Bill LaPlante and Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Sasha Baker (who will) discuss the recent meeting of national armaments directors under the auspices of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. However, if you have other questions about USAI Tranche Six that came out the other day, they can address those questions. I would ask that you keep your questions within these bounds for today, as we are limited on time and have about 25 or 30 minutes. And also, unless you are asking a question, please keep your phones on mute.
With that, I will turn it over to Dr. LaPlante.
UNDER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE WILLIAM LAPLANTE: Well, hi, everybody. Good afternoon, and happy Friday. Thanks for joining us. It’s great to join you today to talk about the last few days, including the National Armaments Directors meeting in Brussels, which was very successful on Wednesday. I’m happy to answer questions about the session, but also want to highlight a few key takeaways.
For the first time under the auspices of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, we had all of these acquisitions and Defense Industrial Base specialists in the room together. So that was basically the equivalent of myself — “national armaments director” is the term they use — for 45 nations, including the Union — the European Union, as well as NATO. Throughout the day, we heard from nearly 20 of our partners who discussed efforts that they are doing to strengthen and expand their own industrial bases and deal with supply chain issues, all the issues we all are dealing with right now.
The meeting resulted in commitments to stand up smaller working groups among ourselves to continue the conversation, drive actionable progress. These working groups will define multinational strategies to mitigate supply chain constraints, increase production and pursue not just interoperability, but interchangeability. This frank and open dialogue was exactly what we hoped to see as we went into the meeting, and I’m proud of the collective efforts to support Ukraine in the long term. The ability for us to work together across our nation — these are all the nations of the contact group — to solve challenges is inspiring.
With that, I’ll turn it over to Ms. Baker for any opening comments that she has.
DEPUTY UNDER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE SASHA BAKER: Thanks, Bill, and thank you to the members of the press for joining us on the heels of our travel to Brussels. I apologize. I’m joining you remotely today, so if you have any trouble hearing me, please shout and I will try to see what I can do about that.
As Dr. LaPlante outlined, this was the first time that we gathered the armaments directors under the auspices of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, and what I think is important about that is it’s really joining up the policy and the acquisition and the Defense Industrial Base specialists from all of the nations that Bill described to put our collective heads together and tackle some of the challenges that we know we’re facing.
The level of dialogue and unified action among the participants I think really underscores our unwavering global commitment to stand with Ukraine as it defends its sovereignty in the face of Russian aggression, and we were fortunate to have Ukraine’s Deputy Minister Havrylov with us to really kind of give us a first-hand perspective of what they’re facing on the ground.
Russia’s brutal and premeditated invasion of Ukraine is really a fundamental attack on our international rules-based order. Their efforts have not succeeded, and we are committed to ensuring that they will not succeed. As we’ve made clear at basically every level of the Administration, we are committed to strengthening Ukraine’s hand in their fight for sovereignty and in their fight to retain their territorial integrity. So I’m really delighted that our meetings this week were able to advance the ball in strengthening the position of this collective group of Allies and partners who’ve all made the same commitment.
So that’s really, I think, all I’ll say at the top; happy to take questions, but for now, let me hand it back over you, Jessica.
STAFF: Thank you, and just one clarification note. Everything today is said on the record, attributable by name.
So with that, we’ll go ahead and get started. Lita Baldor, A.P.
Q: Hi. Thank you. Question for either or both of you: What — how much discussion was there about efforts to energize the industrial base? And what concerns are there among countries that they are — as they provide all of these weapons and equipment, that the U.S. and others are reaching the point where you’re — a PDA is not as likely because you’re reaching some risky limits on some equipment and some weapon systems, and you’ll have to turn to a greater effort to energize the industrial base? How much did you hear of that during the conversation, and how big of a concern is that for the U.S.?
DR. LAPLANTE: Yeah, I’ll start, and then maybe Sasha can pick it up, too.
I don’t know that there was a lot of concern about, you know, the supply — the supplies and individual stockpiles or anything like that, not like what sometimes you hear in the press. It was much more about how do we — as we all get our production lines going, and not just going for Ukraine, but also to replenish ourselves in anticipation of the future, what are the — what are the tools and the common signal or ideas that we have between us that we can share with each other, and maybe even cooperate together?
I’ll give you a very specific example: Everybody hears this term from industry called “We need to see the demand signal. We need to see demand signal.” All the countries hear the same thing. We discussed exactly, well, what that — what does that really mean, right? Because we see lots of demand, right? You just have to read the newspaper or just go online and see it. What’s really meant by that is that the industry both in our country and around the world want to know, is there a sustainable longer-range plan for these production so that they can invest themselves and put production lines together that will be enduring, and not that this will be something which has traditionally been feast or famine; that we go into panic mode, we increase production, and then when the crisis passed, we just go back to minimal production again. So I think that’s what really, the focus is on that.
And then when you follow that discussion you get to things like multiyear contracting ideas, pooling our requirements together so we can maybe have a combined procurement so there’s larger quantity that’s more stable for industrial base, coproduction even, and then also getting our political processes and our dialogue in our own countries and many of democracies on getting the understanding that the way we’ve traditionally done procurement of munitions in peace time where we’ve basically produced the minimal amount, and then we turn it off even below that, we may have to change that, looking at the world ahead, not just the immediate crisis in Ukraine, but a long — longer term. So that’s really where the conversation was.
But I’ll let Ms. Baker also comment.
MS. BAKER: Yeah, I think I completely agree. The only thing I would really add to that is I think what you’re seeing is a recognition amongst the partners and allies that we’ve made a commitment now for the long haul. And so what we need is a mix of different mechanisms for providing assistance to Ukraine. So we have PDA, which is very effective in the short term in terms of addressing urgent requirements that the Ukrainians are conveying to us. But if we want to, you know, work with Ukraine to get them to a NATO standard and get them to a place where they can sustain their military and their defensive abilities over the long term, we have to start that now because we know that some of the contracting timelines and the production timelines, specifically, for some of the equipment that the Ukrainians will need is going to take six, 12, 18 months.
STAFF: OK, thank you. Let’s go to Joe Gould, Defense News.
Q: Hi, thanks so much. Dr. LaPlante, I just – just wanted to ask a follow up on your point. I – how much are you hearing from industry that they don’t have the – you know, the – they don’t have the production capacity right now? And – how much are they dependent on actual contracts to go ahead and put out the kind of equipment that – that Ukraine’s going to need in the long term?
DR. LAPLANTE: Yeah, you – well, you hear different things. It depends. Even within a single industry company, you’ll hear different things, depending on which level of the company you’re talking to.
The real issue is what happens is when you go to industry, a particular company, and say hey, you’re producing this at 1,000 a month – I’m making this up – can you get it to 2,000? And they’ll have to come back, and it’s not an easy question to answer because the answer is always going to be yes, then you – then you say how long is it going to take? Is it going to take a year, year and a half? What’s your critical chokepoint? And then you look and you see – work with them to see if it’s realistic.
The money part of it, the contracting part of it gets all the attention in the press. Contracting, actually, we can be very – we’re very fast with contracting. We push money very quickly out to contractors. That’s kind of a red herring. It’s not the contracting, it’s actually the physically getting the production line either restarted or getting it to be doubled.
And a lot of times, the key items that make these things take a year or two are long lead items, some – something you have to order well ahead. Think of your own life, how long you have to order things.
Second will be obsolescence of parts, key sub-components, like microelectronics, even ball bearings, actuators. And a lot of times, many production lines, they don’t really know off the top of their head which is the key chokepoints. They have to do the analysis.
So it’s really about the companies and their capability, regardless of getting the money – if they got the money today, how quickly they can get to those numbers. And just to remind everybody, this is always the case with production. Production doesn’t just start and stop overnight, it takes time.
And so to – back to Ms. Baker’s point, that’s why we’re having this conversation now, because, you know, this isn’t going to help in the next week, right? The next week, it’s all about the drawdown and the things like that that we’re doing. But this is to show the commitments in the long run.
STAFF: All right, thanks. Let’s go to Jon Harper, DefenseScoop.
Q: Thank you. I was wondering if loitering munitions were a big topic of discussion at this meeting? And, you know, do you have concerns there about production rates or the supply chains?
And then with regard to this latest tranche of USAI aid, there was a mention of counter-UAS systems. Can you provide any more details about that? Are these primarily the VAMPIRE systems that were included in a previous tranche or are these new capabilities?
DR. LAPLANTE: Yeah, I’ll answer the last thing first, which is that we’re – we’re not giving details, at least right now, on which counter-UAS systems were in the tranche yesterday that was announced.
I would just say, on the broader category of loitering munitions, well, you know, there is – broad categories of capabilities – I’ll call them capabilities – that always come up. They typically are long range fires, air defenses – integrated air defenses, including counter-UAS, some types of – of air-to-ground and ground-to-ground. These always come up in these conversations, and then, of course, ways to do C2 and targeting.
So there’s not any one – only one topic that comes up. And again, back to loitering munitions, there’s lots of different options that the U.S. has and other countries have that all have different capability of endurance, different warhead sizes, et cetera.
So I just – there’s lots of options out there. It’s not really a supply chain or industrial base issue.
Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:
And here is their updated map for today:
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Lyman:
LYMAN/FLASH TRAFFIC/ 1940 UTC 30 SEP/ RU forces in the Lyman area are reported to be isolated. UKR reconnaissance elements are said to be in possession of the O-0528 and O-130501 HWYs south of Zarichne. Artillery now covers these roads. pic.twitter.com/77jsnzCvnk
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 30, 2022
And here is The Kyiv Independent‘s Illia Ponomarenko’s take on the situation in Lyman:
The noose has been tightened pic.twitter.com/W11ZH4DqCe
— Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 30, 2022
As I type this the Ukrainian military has encircled the Russians/Russian positions in Lyman. They’ve sealed them up. Unless the Russians are able to break out, and from all reports they are not able, the Ukrainians will now apply pressure from all directions to reduce the Russian military presence in Lyman. Reduce here means kill some, capture others.
So as Putin decided to crack open all seven Russian seals of the apocalypse in his speech earlier today, his military is about to not just lose Lyman, but also have every Russian soldier in Lyman either killed or captured.
BettyC covered Putin’s speech earlier today, so I’m not going to go into a lot of details. However, I think there are several noteworthy things. The first is the aforementioned apocalypticism of Putin’s address. There was very little subtext. He was exceedingly explicit in making the speech overtly religious and framing his re-invasion of Ukraine, as well as his unilateral declaration stealing four illegally Russian occupied Ukrainian oblasts, as an existential war with the US and the rest of “the west”. The west here means NATO and the EU, with perhaps the exception of Hungary; as well as Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. He also amped up the nuclear threats, which is intended to frighten decision-makers in DC and the capitols of our EU and NATO allies into reconsidering their support for Ukraine. And, as we also discussed ahead of the speech today, justified his war against Ukraine by inverting the reality of the ongoing re-invasion. These four oblasts have always been Russia, are now returned to Russia, and therefore Ukraine has invaded Russia and all we’re doing is defending ourself and our people. Finally, it is important to note that the Russian constitution makes it explicit that Russian lands can never be relinquished or negotiated away. Meaning, that as far as the Russians are concerned it won’t matter if Ukraine is able to clear the Russian occupiers out of every last inch of Ukraine, Russia, provided its current constitution is still in force, will never accept that the war is over because it would be illegal to do so. What Putin did today was declare an actual forever war unless Ukraine agrees to give up these four oblasts, plus Crimea to Russia. Which is never going to happen. This too is a ploy to keep Ukraine out of NATO as Putin knows all too well that a prospective NATO member cannot be admitted to the alliance if it is involved in an ongoing territorial dispute.
Here is a great analysis of Putin’s speech by Konstantin Kisin, who used to work as an Enlish-Russian translator:
This is a reproduction of my live Twitter summary/translation of Vladimir Putin’s speech:
I wish every single person in the West would listen to Putin’s speech. Obviously, that won’t happen so let me summarise as a professional translator for 10+ years. He states, as he has done from the outset, what his intentions and complaints are in the plainest terms possible
Setting aside his brief comments on the recent “referendums”, he spends most of his speech discussing the West. His primary complaint isn’t NATO expansion, which gets only a cursory mention. The West is greedy and seeks to enslave and colonise other nations, like Russia.
The West uses the power of finance and technology to enforce its will on other nations. To collect what he calls the “hegemon’s tax”. To this end the West destabilises countries, creates terrorist enclaves and most of all seeks to deprive other countries of sovereignty.
It is this “avarice” and desire to preserve its power that is the reason for the “hybrid war” the collective West is “waging on Russia”. They want us to be a “colony”. They do not want us to be free, they want Russians to be a mob of soulless slaves – direct quote.
The rules-based order the West goes on about is “nonsense”. Who made these rules? Who agreed to them? Russia is an ancient country and civilization and we will not play by these “rigged” rules. The West has no moral authority to challenge the referendums because it has violated the borders of other countries. Western elites are “totalitarian, despotic and apartheidistic” – direct quote. They are racist against Russia and other countries and nations. “Russophobia is racism”. They discriminate by calling themselves the “civilised world”.
They colonised, started the global slave trade, genocided native Americans, pillaged India and Africa, forced China to buy opium through war. We, on the other hand, are proud that we “led” the anti-colonial movement that helped countries develop to reduce poverty and inequality.
They are Russophobic (they hate us) because we didn’t allow our country to be pillaged by creating a strong CENTRALISED (emphasis his) state based on Christianity, Islam, Judaism and Buddhism. They have been trying to destabilise our country since the 17th century in the Times of Trouble. Eventually, they managed to “get their hands on our riches” at the end of the 20th century. They called us friends and partners while pumping out trillions of dollars (his irony game is strong today).
We remember this. We didn’t forget. The West claims to bring freedom and democracy to other countries but it’s the exact opposite of the truth. The unipolar world is anti-democratic by its very nature. It is a lie. They used nuclear weapons, creating a precedent. They flattened German cities without “any military need to do so”. There was no need for this except to scare us and the rest of the world. Korea, Vietnam. To this day they “occupy” Japan, South Korea and Germany and other countries while cynically calling them “allies”.
The West has surveillance over the leaders of these nations who “swallow these insults like the slaves they are”.
He then talks about bioweapon research (haven’t heard about them for a while) and human experiments “including in Ukraine”.
The US rules the world by the power of the fist. Any country which seeks to challenge Western hegemony becomes an enemy. Their neocolonialism is cloaked in lies like “containment” of Russia, China and Iran. The concept of truth has been destroyed with fakes and extreme propaganda (irony game still strong).
You cannot feed your people with printed dollars and social media. You need food and energy. But Western elites have no desire to find a solution to the food and energy crises *they* (emphasis his) created.
They solved the problems at the start of 20c with WW1 and the US established dominance of the world via the dollar as a result of WW2. In the 80s they had another crisis they solved by “plundering our country”. Now they want to solve their problems by “breaking Russia”.
Russia “understands its responsibility to the international community” and will “do everything to cool the heads of these neocolonials who are destined to fail”.
They’re crazy. I want to speak to all Russian citizens, do we want to replace mum and dad with parent 1 and 2?
They invented genders and claim you can “transition”. Do we want this for our children?
We have a different vision.
They have abandoned religion and embraced Satanism – direct quote.
The world is going through a revolutionary transformation. A multipolar world offers nations freedom to develop as they wish and they make up the majority of the world.
We have many like-minded friends in Western countries. We see and appreciate their support. They are forming liberation, anti-colonial movements as we speak – direct quote. These will only grow.
We are fighting for a fair world for our country. The idea of exceptionalism is criminal and we must turn this shameful page. The breaking of the West’s hegemony is INEVITABLE (emphasis his).
There is no going back. We are fighting for our “great (as in big), historic Russia”. Our values are (irony game crescendo): love of our fellow man, compassion and mercy.
Truth is with us, Russia is with us.
That’s the end of the speech. As I said from day 1, the purpose of what Putin is doing in Ukraine is to throw the West off its pedestal. This isn’t about NATO or Ukraine, this is the big play to replace the current world order.
If only we knew someone who has been saying this on the front page and the comments of a blog since 2015…
Fiona Hill, an expert on Russia, says that we are already fighting in the Third World War, whether we acknowledge it or not. “We’ve been in this for a long time, and we’ve failed to recognize it,” she said.https://t.co/mwmAgy80HD
— The New Yorker (@NewYorker) September 30, 2022
As well as in several professional publications too.
Eez a puzzlement!
The speech did play well with the other Russian warmongers:
A person comes out of the hall with a quick recap of Putin's speech.
Putin empowered and inspired everyone. pic.twitter.com/x2KjGrm3c3
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 30, 2022
The Ukrainian response was the correct one:
By attempting to annex Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, Putin tries to grab territories he doesn’t even physically control on the ground. Nothing changes for Ukraine: we continue liberating our land and our people, restoring our territorial integrity.
— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) September 30, 2022
As was Britain’s:
The UK will never recognise Russia’s illegal annexations in Ukraine. Russia doesn’t even control some of these oblasts. The truth is Russia is losing in Ukraine and their incompetent Generals are sending thousands to their deaths to please President Putin’s imperialist fantasy.
— Rt. Hon Ben Wallace MP (@BWallaceMP) September 30, 2022
Recent moves by the Kremlin are a sign of desperation as they fail to achieve their objectives in Ukraine.
Russia is seeking to deceive the world to further its territorial ambition.
The UK and our partners are united in condemning these reprehensible acts.#StandWithUkraine
— Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (@FCDOGovUK) September 30, 2022
In Washington, President Joe Biden had harsh words for Putin. The U.S. and NATO allies, Biden said, “are not going to be intimidated by Putin and his reckless words and threats. He’s not going to scare us and he doesn’t intimidate us.”
“America is fully prepared with our NATO allies to defend every single inch of NATO territory,” Biden said at the White House. “Every single inch. So, Mr. Putin, don’t misunderstand what I’m saying. Every inch.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Russian President Vladimir Putin’s accusation that the U.S. purposely sabotaged the Nord Stream pipelines was an “absurd allegation.”
“That’s an absurd allegation that we and our allies are responsible,” Blinken told reporters at the State Department alongside his Canadian counterpart. “We will get to the bottom of what happened,” he added.
And just about every other of Ukraine’s ally’s.
As Putin was mongering forever war, his military was actively targeting Ukrainian civilians (again):
Civilian casualties in past 24 hours:
Zaporizhzhia – 25 dead, 74 injured.
Dnipro – 1 dead, 5 injured.
Mykolaiv – 3 dead, 20 injured.
Kharkiv – 7 wounded.
Kherson – 1 dead, 1 injured.
The "second army of the world" is only brave enough to fight unarmed civilians. pic.twitter.com/D6DTazB1V5— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 30, 2022
russia carried out a massive missile attack on civilian vehicles at the check point in the Zaporizhia region. 23 civilians were killed, and over 28 were injured, Head of the Zaporizhia Regional Military Administration reported. pic.twitter.com/cG7G0tpIzB
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 30, 2022
That’s enough for today.
Your daily Patron!
Terrorist attacks occur every day in Ukraine. Imagine everyday terrorist attacks… https://t.co/62BoG1ztJo
— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 30, 2022
If today is the day of strange orders, then here is mine 🤭 pic.twitter.com/G1R6lNjrMX
— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 30, 2022
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok featuring more of Olga Wilson’s beautifully tragic art:
@patron__dsns Наші Янголи…💔😔 Авторка малюнків (Інстаграм): 0lga.art #славаукраїні #пескрим
The caption translates as:
Our Angels…💔😔 Author of drawings (Instagram): 0lga.art #SlavaUkraini #KrymtheDog
Open thread!
Lyrebird
#SlavaUkraini #пескрим (his didn’t machine translate)
If Pes Patron is “Patron the Dog” then Pes Krym (the part that did not translate) is “Crimea the Dog” , same bereaved dog shown in the photos and artwork.
Not sure if he’s beeing described as one of the angels along with the artist, but he is being honored with the hashtag.
Anonymous At Work
Lyman’s been in dire straits for a while and getting worse. What’s it going to take for Russian forces to surrender there? Are there enough senior or field officers to keep that from happening, are the actual forces indoctrinated sufficiently to fight for Russia until the end, do the Russians believe the Ukrainians will swallow their souls and grind their bones to make bread?
Also, what value does Lyman have aside from its status as a RU holdout? Given the state of the Kharkiv front before the counteroffensive, I can’t imagine it was a defensive stronghold and any weapons or ammo depots are either gone or being used up rapidly.
Gin & Tonic
@Lyrebird: Correct. “пескрим” is “Krym the dog.”
HumboldtBlue
Poor Krym, brought tears to my eyes when I saw that picture earlier today.
Here’s another tear-maker from Iran.
RaflW
Not gonna link to it, but CPAC going so far up Putin they see the ileum was not on my list of expectations today.
I guess the full-on Christianist gay bashing and all that from Vlad’s speech really got the Comrades-Putin Ass Chugging* into a lather.
*apologies, I could probably do better but it’s late and been a full day.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
I knew the NATO application was not going to go anywhere, but I am still glad Zelenskyy did it, and so publicly and vehemently. He wants to show his people and the world that he will do anything in his power to defeat russia, to defend Ukrainian land and citizens, and to firmly ally Ukraine with Europe, the US, etc. He’s proven his leadership and character and forward-thinking throughout this whole thing, and continues to do so, and I find it admirable and moving, no matter what the outcome of a particular overture.
Also too I am crying again over the doggie.
I needed this chuckle, thank you. But sweet Lord in heaven…I don’t know, y’all. To me, putin has clearly and completely lost his entire mind. I know this is all his schtick and has been for a long time, but reading the transcripts and quotes, like…he sounds stark raving mad. I don’t know if the rumors of him having cancer are true, but God forgive me, I hope they are and I hope it progresses with lightning speed. (Although…I assume whomever would take his place would be just as horrid.)
Thank you as always, Adam. Hope all is well and at least somewhat dry where you are.
Adam L Silverman
@Lyrebird: Thanks, I’ll fix it in a second.
West of the Rockies
You mentioned soon to be killed or captured Russian troops. Are they Wagner? Then I hope option number one it is. They are there by choice for cash and ego gratification.
twbrandt (formerly tom)
@RaflW: of course, the reaction was so strong cpac deleted their tweet like cowards they are.
Subsole
Lovely.
I am struck anew by just how much of Putin’s speech is word for word the very same slop you hear out of Bernie deadenders and the Greenwaldian dipshits they handed megaphones to because they just…could…not…bear… the thought of some naggy hag that reminded them of every woman who was smarter than them (and knew it) running the country…
God, how I hate that pompous fifth-column fuck and every waste-of-carbon dipshit who cannot admit how bad they fucked it up for everyone in 2016.
And I say all that as someone who has to live with the fact I fell for Snowden’s abject horseshit back when.
Tony G
Well, Snowden is a Russian citizen now. I guess he’ll be fine (until he’s no longer useful).
Kent
It is a transportation hub. Losing Lyman seriously imperils other Russian positions in the area. You have to pay attention to the roads and railroads. Nothing moves anywhere but on roads and railroads.
Major Major Major Major
@RaflW: ew.
Kent
He is 39 so of prime draft age to be handed a rifle and sent to Ukraine.
Adam L Silverman
@Lyrebird: @Gin & Tonic: It’s fixed. Thanks!
Emma from Miami
Recently I have been reading biographies of Ivan IV, known to russians as Ivan Grozny, and to us as Ivan the Terrible. It is eerie how much Putin is channeling him. The hunger for continual expansion, the contempt for all human life except his own, the self-identification as Russia itself, the physical cowardice. I think that, unlike Ivan, Putin knows that, at bottom, he is a nonentity without his power over Russia. He will burn it down to the ground before he loosens his grip. Assassination might be the only way out.
JanieM
“a prospective NATO member cannot be admitted to the alliance if it is involved in an ongoing territorial dispute.” — I have been wondering about this since this war started and I first heard about this rule.
I’m sure there is some bureaucratic or strategic or practical answer to this question, but how can an unprovoked invasion by a predatory nation with a megalomaniac at the helm be a “territorial dispute”? Especially when accompanied by attempted nuclear blackmail, the kidnapping of thousands (hundreds of thousands?) of people, and an endless list of horrific war crimes?
That does not sound like a “territorial dispute” to me.
Captain C
@Anonymous At Work:
IIRC from the various things I’ve read (including these excellent postings), it’s a fairly important logistics node, and also, Ukraine’s forces taking it put the Russian forces in Donbas and Luhansk in a more vulnerable position. Also, given Russia’s manpower problems, losing a brigade or two worth of troops who are actually trained to some extent can’t be good for their overall combat effectiveness.
And even Putin knows that a major loss like this right as he tries to grab four Ukrainian oblasts makes him look like a chump. It seems that TFG’s reverse-midas touch even extends to Vlad the Increasingly Delusional.
featheredsprite
I am sorry for your pain.
bbleh
Sooo … what’s the endgame here? I haven’t seen anything regarding the Russian “mobilization” other than that it’s a shambles from both a military and political perspective. I haven’t seen any backing down of western support for Ukraine, saber-rattling and pipeline sabotage notwithstanding. Public opinion in Russia seems at least not to be strongly supportive, at least among those with the means to flee the country. How are they not at best stymied and at worst in retreat?
And if this is so, what are the options for the west? I’m still highly skeptical of the threat of nukes — what would Russia gain, even in the short term, much less the long term — so what’s the goal? Push them all the way back to the border? Something short of that (and if so, would Ukraine agree)? And what about Crimea?
And purely speculatively, what are the options for Russia? Just how unified, one wonders, are the siloviki? As this goes from embarrassing to worse for Russia, how isolated might Putin become? Is there any reasonable possibility that enough people with enough power might decide that this Ukraine thing is a foolish waste, perhaps a result of illness, and that it might be best for Putin to step away from leadership for reasons of health?
Jayzus. All WE have to worry about are hurricanes …
bbleh
@JanieM: I think several nations have made it clear that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO in the short term. And I think that’s in EVERYONE’s interests, Ukraine’s perhaps most of all. For this to become a NATO-vs-Russia conflict would result in MASSIVE escalation, and Ukraine would be the first place — although not the last — laid entirely to waste.
Ishiyama
Manuel Noriega, Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, … Those Western Imperialists are pretty good at their job, Vladimir. Big Boss Man: you ain’t so big, you’re just tall, that’s all.
lowtechcyclist
@twbrandt (formerly tom):
(CC)CPAC may have deleted it, but that doesn’t mean it’s irretrievable:
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1576032417856778240
Lyrebird
@Adam L Silverman:
Thank you for providing so much crucial information every evening!
It hurts to even think about how many Ukrainians are feeling just like Krym the dog. Staggering loss.
Very happy if I could help with a little piece of tonight’s update.
JanieM
@bbleh: Yes, I get all that as a practical matter. I guess my question is basically rhetorical, literally and figuratively. Fine if there are practical and strategic reasons for not allowing Ukraine into NATO right now. I am too literal-minded, if nothing else, not to mind the “territorial dispute” BS.
catclub
How about: “…and we are doing all we can to assist Ukraine in ousting the Russian invaders to bring that time closer.”
frosty
War is cruel, but somehow it is crueler seen through the eyes of a dog that has lost everything, his home, his family, and doesn’t have any idea why it happened.
Adam, thanks for these posts. I’m sure it’s a lot of your time, but more so, a lot of heartache with every one.
frosty
It’s so nice to see a world leader who’s almost as short as I am. I have a picture from a meet’n’greet with John Fetterman. My SIL said “You look like a hobbit!”
Grrr (h/t Another Scott)
catclub
@RaflW:
There was a lot of indications that the NRA was siphoning foreign
money into US politics. Why not CPAC, too?
Urza
@Adam L Silverman: Is there anything remotely definitive likely to happen if/when Putin dies? Like who’s in line to take over, what they’ll do, what kind of chaos might happen? Assuming there’s no coup to take him down and he goes naturally.
Feathers
I was thinking back on my Cold War era high school Russian classes with the Dnipro / Dnieper River talk.
There was constant pressure to drop Russian because of the low enrollment. Whenever it came up at a school board meeting, there was an old Army soldier who’d stand up and give a speech that always ended with “And when they come over the hills they won’t be speaking Latin!” And Russian stayed in the curriculum.
Thinking about him and what he’d think about this.
Note: they ended up dropping Russian when Mme Morrisovna retired. She taught French as well, which is why the program lasted as long as it did. Chinese has replaced it. Looks like there is a move to create an AP Russian exam, which would help bring the language back into high schools.
Carlo Graziani
@Captain C: I’m trying to locate a very well-informed Twitter thread by a Russian commenter that was linked here a couple of weeks ago, and unfortunately I stupidly failed to bookmark it. It implied very strongly that Lyman had not been the “important rail node” that the media (and, sorry, I can’t help myself, Pfarrer) insist it is, because the Belgorod rail line terminated at Kupyansk, well short of Lyman. Which makes total sense, because Lyman has been so close to the front lines all along that putting a trucking logistical distribution node there would be an imbecilic invitation to the Ukrainians to take HIMARS potshots at ammo dumps and tank deliveries.
Also note this UKR MOD update in Adam’s June 2 Update states that the enemy “Repaired the railway bridge crossing in the area of the settlement of Kupyansk to restore the logistics supply of the railway branch Kupyansk – Lyman,” which implies that that line was already a problem South of Kupyansk as early as last June.
Judging from Google Maps, Lyman isn’t even much of a road junction. It’s just a POS town that got a lot of attention for reasons that make little sense, and the Russians who are trapped there are fucked because their command system is too sclerotic and CYA-prone to have had the moral courage to tell them to bug out in time.
Anoniminous
Lyman has served for months as a logistics and transport hub anchoring Russian military operations in the north of Donetsk province. It is the second greatest marshaling yard in Ukraine and pre-war it handled about 30% of all freights of Donbas.
RaflW
@catclub: Maybe. Certainly not impossible, though I’d think that the Russian tap is down to a drip-drip-drip at the moment?
I think mostly they’ve been mainlining Fucker Tarlson and other unhinged pro-Russia hogwash for so long they’ve lost touch with even their own purported base.
Frankly I’m glad they let their freak flag fly today. They’ll need to be reminded of it in the weeks ahead.
catclub
@Urza:
The only prediction I have heard is that ” whoever takes over after Putin will be worse. It will be someone who thinks Putin was weak.”
Carlo Graziani
@bbleh: Purely intuition: Shit is happening behind the scenes in Russia, and things are wildly unstable in government, security, and military circles that we can’t see—although based on their track record from about a year ago, the US intelligence community probably still has a reasonably clear read.
I am completely persuaded that for Putin to jettison his long-term project of projecting normalcy throughout Russian society, there must have occurred some kind of governance crisis, presumably related to the military catastrophes that have befallen the Russian armies in Ukraine, as well as the ones that are very clearly forseeable in the near future.
“Normalcy” is a privilege of a ruler who believes he is holding a winning hand. “Call to arms” is the play in an emergency, when you’re alarmed that things have gone sideways. Putin’s entire worldview was invested in a kind of comforting historical inevitability that someone has now succeeded in very rudely shattering. I don’t think that process was a polite debate, or a marking-to-market of out-of-date beliefs. Russian politics tend not to evolve that way. Much more likely, in my opinion, Putin was confronted by a set of officials who demanded a more active war policy, and placed some extremely tight constraints on his freedom to act.
sdhays
@Carlo Graziani: So, why has the UAF prioritized capturing Lyman? They seem pretty good at identifying logistical pain points and attacking them. And Russia chose Lyman to hold the line after Izyum.
Chetan Murthy
@sdhays: I’ve read that Lyman was basically the front door to attacking Luhansk Oblast. And also that once Lyman is taken, the next major logistics node is Starobilsk. Quite a bit further East, and basically all flat steppe in-between.
Carlo Graziani
@Anoniminous: I do not believe that this statement has been correct for several months. I’ve been looking for sources to confim it, and I cannot. I would be happy to be pointed to any sources that you are aware of. As I wrote, any trucking hub in this war necessarily needs to be more than 80 km away from the front lines to avoid getting targeted by HIMARS strikes. This has not been the case for Lyman for most of the war.
Carlo Graziani
@sdhays: I think they just want to bag those Russians and close that salient. The Russians are just being idiots for not withdrawing.
Anoniminous
Thank you for the link to the Logistics Meeting*, my Take-Away was NATO has started a multi-nation process for logistics.
“… this was the first time that we gathered the armaments directors under the auspices of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, and what I think is important about that is it’s really joining up the policy and the acquisition and the Defense Industrial Base specialists from all of the nations [at the meeting] to put our collective heads together and tackle some of the challenges that we know we’re facing.”
To put it bluntly, that is a Big Deal. Historically individual nations have fenced defense procurement from outside competition to favor their own military-industrial complex. The reality of 2022 is a single nation cannot produce state of the art weapon system domestically. It’s good to see nations are acknowledging that.
* And I would like to point out, for the record, that the rumor I am in love with FM 4-95 LOGISTICS OPERATIONS is not only not true it is a vile calumny. (I only say that to get it into bed.)
Jinchi
@West of the Rockies: I don’t think Wagner operates on the frontlines in Lyman. It sounds like in a lot of these places the leadership gives the order to hold fast, “no surrender, no retreat” while exiting the scene themselves.
Hopefully that means the poor slobs left behind have every incentive to surrender at the first opportunity.
Medicine Man
@West of the Rockies: I think the Wagner goons are operating more down by Bahkmut. At least one of their noteworthy officers got croaked there a few days ago.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@frosty: There was a documentary put out recently, can’t recall from what outlet, basically comparing and contrasting Zelenskyy and putin, and in one soundbite, a commentator refers to Ze as a “little tiny Jewish boy” and I was like, jeez bitch, ease up, he’s not THAT short. (People have said he’s 5’6″ but I saw an old clip of an interview from before he was president where the interviewer asked him if he ever feels self-conscious or something about being only 166 cm tall and he said he’s fine with his height, but corrected him to say that he’s 170 cm :P)
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: Well, if TV shows are to be relied-upon, he’s got a massive schlong — big enough to use to play the piano with ….. so maybe he doesn’t care so much if he’s short.
kalakal
@lowtechcyclist: “Ukranian occupied territories” FFS! That makes me bloody furious – (CC)CPAC are a bunch of treasonous tossers, may they be treated as they wish to treat others.
Kent
To be fair (and no, I don’t want to be fair to CPAC) but you can read the tweet two ways.
Occupied territories OF Ukraine
Territories occupied BY Ukraine
The former actually makes more sense because Ukraine isn’t doing the occupying, Russia is.
frosty
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: Yeah, 166 really is “that short”
Chetan Murthy
@Kent: Disagree. “Ukrainian-occupied territories” has only one meaning: “territories occupied by Ukraine”.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Chetan Murthy: LOL!
@frosty: It’s between 5’5″ and 5’6″, which, sure, is below average for a man, but not drastically so. A guy being 5’6″ (or 5’7″ as he says he is) doesn’t make him a munchkin from Oz or something.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Kent: Note that in the original tweet from CPAC, there is a hyphen: “Ukrainian-occupied territories” – which most certainly implies “territories which are not Ukrainian but are currently being occupied by Ukrainians”. Considering the source, there is no other way to read it. You don’t refer to people living in their own lands as them “occupying” those lands.
kalakal
@Kent: I can see what you mean but I think grammatically if they meant
they have phrased it as ‘Occupied Ukranian territories’ rather than ‘Ukranian occupied territories”.
Personally I don’t think for a second that they, taking their cue from that blood drenched psycho squatting in the Kremlin who owns them body and soul, meant anything other than that these are Russian territories which are occupied by Ukraine. I hope they live long and miserable lives, impoverished, disgraced, and shunned by all. They are in the highest degree odious.
ColoradoGuy
My intuition … no more than that … says Putin has brain cancer, and is terrified of letting (any) surgeons operate, or even treat him. The religion talk is because he feels he is going to meet his maker, and will have to explain what he did to save Mother Russia, the fabled Third Rome. He, the divinely chosen leader, and the Chosen People of Russia will redeem this fallen world for Christ (using traditional Russian methods).
To the extent that he really believes any of this, the decadent West has fallen to Satan, a view not all that different from Hitler’s more secular take on it. How much the RU generals will accept from an increasingly fanatic and irrational leader is hard to say.
Chetan Murthy
kalakal
Adam, I’d just like to thank you for your use of Olga Wilson’ s illustrations. So very sad and heartbreaking, I think they convey powerfully the horrors of this vile invasion.
Kent
Well yes, if there is a hyphen then it is non-ambiguous for sure. Thanks for the correction. I’m certainly not going to bother going to the source.
Kent
@Chetan Murthy: The hyphen makes all the difference obviously. It was not present in the quote I was responding to.
bjacques
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: this is a good time to go remember that Ben Shapiro is 5’4”.
West of the Rockies
@bjacques:
Yup, Ben Shapiro is 5’4″ and has been assured by his wife that female orgasm is a myth. (Jordan Peterson believes the same).
No wonder he’s such an angry little shit pot. Now, why he and Peterson are so ludicrously smug is a mystery.
Jinchi
Putin uses ‘the religion talk’ for the same reason TFG and a lot of other political leaders who DGAF about morality do. As a justification for acts that are transparently evil and self-serving. It’s also a signal to religious factions that you’re on their team.
You can get away with a whole lot of evil if “God” told you to do it.
Geminid
AP reports that Russian forces have kidnapped the director of the Zaporizhne nuclear facility, Ihor Murashov. According to the head of the state nuclear power company Energoatom, Mr. Murashov was taken from his car around 4pm Friday, blindfolded, and moved to an undisclosed location.
Adam L Silverman
Lyman!
oldster
Last week, there was a tweet indicating that Ukraine has taken out of storage their old Soviet M240 240mm mortars and ammunition. These fire a 9″ shell with about 80 lbs of high explosive in it. Not much range, maybe 6 miles. It’s the same mortar mounted in the Soviet Tyulpan SP mortar.
A weapon like this is no good for maneuver warfare — too slow, not enough range. It’s good for only one thing: siege warfare. It’s a relatively cheap and easy way to lob HE onto a stationary position not far away.
I took this tweet as a signal that they are going to start dropping misery on the Russian troops in Lyman until they surrender. It was nice of them to tweet it out, as a first step in the campaign of persuasion.
Unfortunately, or fortunately, the Ukrainians are not barbarians, and are fighting to liberate their own cities. So they will not simply flatten Lyman, as they could, and as the Russians would (the Tyulpan was used this way in Chechnya).
But I hope that some carefully-targetted mortar shells will start raining down on the invaders any hour now. It will give them an incentive to leave.
oldster
@oldster:
And I’m wrong! There will be no protracted siege of Lyman, because Ukrainian forces are in the city already. Slava Heroyam!
lowtechcyclist
Here’s the text of the deleted CPAC tweet (copied from an image of it, so hopefully I’ve avoided typos):
And below the text, in the original tweet, there was an image of a Russian flag and the CPAC logo, plus some more text naming the four regions Russia says it’s annexing.
Geez, what in there doesn’t get under one’s skin?
First, of course, there’s the flag. If they’re gonna proudly show images of the Russian flag, I hear Putin is welcoming male immigrants of military age.
Second, there’s the language about the occupied territories that’s already been discussed here. (Yes, the hyphen is in the original.)
Third, there’s this mind-boggling attempt to equate what Ukraine is going through with “Meanwhile, we are under attack at our southern border.” “Under attack”? Like it’s dangerous to be a U.S. citizen down there? Like people fleeing poverty and oppression in Latin America who hope for a better life in the U.S. are an ‘attack.’
What crap. They can just blow me.
Finally, the “gift-giving to Ukraine” REALLY rankles me. Like we’re giving them jewelry or something, rather than weapons and ammunition to enable them to fight for their very survival.
The guy who came up with that phrase, I’d like to smack upside the head. Whoever it is, may NAFO find and overwhelm his Twitter feed.
lowtechcyclist
@Adam L Silverman:
That’s great news! But where are the Russians?
After all, one of the reasons this is a BFD is that they’ve got a whole bunch of Russia’s best remaining troops surrounded in Lyman. Have those Russians surrendered? One can only hope!
Gin & Tonic
@lowtechcyclist: Ukrainians are not barbarians, as opposed to the russians who had Ukrainian troops similarly encircled in Ilovaisk in 2014, gave them a supposedly safe corridor to retreat and then slaughtered them as they were doing so. Every Ukrainian remembers. I’m sure many would like to repay that.
matt
@lowtechcyclist: I mean, the deserved response to that post is pretty simple. Death to CPAC.
zhena gogolia
Heroyam slava!
zhena gogolia
I tried and failed to watch Putler’s speech. I just cannot stomach him. But I saw him come out to the podium — his right arm is immobile, pinned to his side, and he never gestures with it.
trnc
@Gin & Tonic:
Which is also what they did to Ukrainian civilians trying to flee the war this year.
Geminid
I checked out Mark Hertling on Twitter, and saw his link to what he described as a “staggering” article in the Kyiv Independent by Igor Kossov, about the hundreds of vehicles captured by Ukrainian forces in their Kharkiv offensive. The article is dated September 26.
Besides the tanks, other armored fighting vehicles, and transport vehicles, Kossov said that hundreds of anti-tank rockets and tens of thousands of artillery shells were seized. In addition to their immediate utility to the UA, close examination of the tanks and other vehicles will reveal foreign supplied parts and could guide sanctions measures.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@bjacques: So? I’m not saying “all short men are the greatest” – I’m pointing out that height doesn’t mean anything about someone, and there is nothing wrong with a man being on the shorter side. Zelenskyy is worth five million Shapiros.
Carlo Graziani
@Jinchi: The religion talk is actually connected to a cultural/historical idea of Russian messianism that is intertwined with the historical Russian imperialist drive. Putin has used it in speeches and at least one actual history journal “scholarly” article.
You can find an eerie variant of the same Russo-Christian messianism in the beautiful, moving works of Dostoevsky. I recently read The Idiot, and found in the an impassioned soliloquy by the main character—I believe reflecting the author’s own views—in which he contrasts the purity of the Russian Christian belief to the corruption, bureacratization, and secularization of the Western Catholic church, and attributes the superior spiritual integrity of “true” (non-Westernized) Russians over the unhappy lot of the industrialized capitalist West to this fact. He states that this makes it self-evident that Russia has a divine mandate to lead the world to a new enlightenment.
Dostoevsky was a genius, and the gentlest of men, and The Idiot is a book about a gentle and good person making people around him behave and think better by his own moral actions. His view of Russia’s mission was not an imperialist agressor’s view, and I feel sure that he would have been repelled by Putin. And yet, there is that thread, running through centuries of Russian history, culture, literature. Geoirge Kennan saw the same mindset, and it helped frame his Long Telegram, and his famous “X” article that set out the US post-war containment policy. It’s going to be a part of the mindset if at least some moiety of the Russian poulation for a long time to come, although hopefully, like racist views in the US, that moiety will shrink over time under the pressures of modernity.
Geminid
@Carlo Graziani: That strain might go back to the fall of Constantinople. I’m guessing that’s where this “Third Rome” stuff comes from.
Carlo Graziani
@Geminid: Good point. The word “Tsar” is derived from “Caesar”, after all…
Another Scott
@zhena gogolia: Yeah, something seems to be wrong with it, and with his right leg. Maybe some spinal injury, maybe a stroke at some point.
Yahoo.com has an AP video clip of him awkwardly walking down stairs from his plane, meeting someone (but not shaking hands). He eventually gives a right-hand thumbs up in one clip before walking to his limo. In his July meeting with Erdogan and the Ayatollah he’s on the right so he is doing the hand-clasp thing with his left hand.
He wears a watch on his right wrist. But he’s apparently right handed.
We also recall that infamous video of him grasping a table corner for dear life with his right hand while sitting in a chair.
I don’t think all this means he’s at death’s door – lots of people live many years after a stroke, and strokes can have various levels of severity (obviously). But a stroke can affect various parts of the brain besides right-side motor function… :-/
Kremlinology will always be with us it seems. ;-)
Cheers,
Scott.
zhena gogolia
@Geminid:
@Carlo Graziani: Google “Third Rome.” There’s a huge history behind it.
Carlo Graziani
@Another Scott: It’s a job that ages people, especially when world-shatteringly consequential decisions appear to be one’s remit, and especially when the progress of one’s triumphs, which has appeared to be going swimmingly for years and building strength upon strength, suddenly collapses into an irretrievable calamity before one’s eyes due to an idiotic gamble.
I’m pretty sure that in his secret heart Putin has regrets about the decision to go to war in Ukraine, or at least about doing so in 2022. He no longer believes that Russia is winning—that is the meaning of “mobilization”—and that must have been a shattering blow to his psyche. Add to that the likely fact that he probably had to face a near-insurrection of war-hawk siloviki demanding that he abandon half measures, and limiting his freedom of action (this really is the best explanation I can come up with for the sheer incoherence of the mobilization effort) for the first time since he took power. People his age have had strokes and heart failure for lesser shocks.
Carlo Graziani
@zhena gogolia: I appreciate the pointer, but I am familiar with that history. I own, and have read Riasanovsky’s A History of Russia.
Not intended defensively or as snark, mind you. I always do like to be directed at useful information.
And I’m reminded that it’s probably past time that I should go back and re-read that book.
Anonymous At Work
@Kent & @Captain C: My read is that Lyman’s usefulness as a “transportation hub” was severed long ago when Kupyansk was retaken. Now, it just looks like a salient with a lot of Russian soldiers lacking adequate arms trapped inside. If its value to Russian forces is solely to deny its use to Ukraine, I’d expect Russian forces to be destroying that capacity and then trying to break out or surrender.
And that’s what I don’t understand. Poorly-fed, unsheltered, and under-supplied Russian forces would put Ukrainian forces and government in a more awkward position to feed, house and clothe them through the winter and losing even an entire brigade won’t adversely affect military readiness, since that’s bottom of the barrel.
I guess what I’m looking for is if there’s a reason beyond “stubbornness”, and, if that’s all, what’s keeping the Russian officers there safe from mutiny.
Carlo Graziani
@Anonymous At Work: Lyman was almost certainly compromised as a trucking hub well before the capture of Kupyansk. As was noted in Adam’s June 1 post transcript of the UKR MOD Update, the Russians were already having to repair a railroad bridge south of Kupyansk to restore rail service to Lyman. By early July, the Ukrainians were beginning their csmpaign of logistical and C3 interdiction using HIMARS strikes, and the Lyman rail complex was certainly in range. It would have been suicidal to continue to rely on it as a trucking hub.
Moreover, just compare Lyman and Kupyansk on Google Maps. Kupyansk is an actual road hub. Lyman is not. It never made any sense as a Russian logistical distribution trucking hub. The analysts who described it that way didn’t know what they were talking about, in my opinion.
Anonymous At Work
@Carlo Graziani: All agreed, hence my confusion over why Russian forces are treating this as Bastogne or Kursk rather than Verdun. My view at 10,000 feet overhead and 10,000 miles away is “You’re screwed and aren’t getting reinforcements, so your best option is surrender BEFORE death.”
Intercepts make the situation seem like Russian forces aren’t confused about what’s happening, either. I could imagine they think Ukrainians will reciprocate war crimes but that feels tenuous. I could imagine senior/field officers trying to keep discipline but that’s a fart in a stiff wind (and invitation for mutiny).
Chetan Murthy
@Anonymous At Work: There’s a lively discussion on Twitter about why RU forces were told to stick it out and not retreat.
A RU survivor:
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: Same read. Nobody in the chain of command has the moral courage to sacrifice his job, rank, and possibly his life to save those troops by giving the sane, sensible order to withdraw.
lowtechcyclist
@Gin & Tonic:
OK, but I don’t understand the moral necessity of providing a safe corridor for retreat, as opposed to offering to accept their surrender and humane treatment while in captivity.
The bonus for surrounding these guys should be that you get to take them off the board, so to speak, rather than letting them fight another day. Not to mention, if they surrender, they can be exchanged for Ukrainian POWs in Russian hands.
Chetan Murthy
@lowtechcyclist: I think the situation in Ilovaisk was that the Russians *agreed* to a safe corridor for them to retreat, as long as they left their weapons behind. Then they proceeded to slaughter them. Sure, the RU could have demanded surrender. But they did something more diabolical, that cost them less of their own men, while killing more UA soldiers. It’s the bad faith that’s the problem.
lowtechcyclist
@Chetan Murthy:
I was thinking more about what just happened in Lyman. Why was it morally necessary for the Ukrainian troops to offer the Russians a safe corridor to retreat through at all, rather than simply offering to accept their surrender?
Chetan Murthy
@lowtechcyclist: I don’t think it was morally necessary. A couple days ago, someone well-placed in UA govt pointed out what RU had done in Ilovaisk, and that gee, if the shoe were on the other foot, even though some UA soldiers would like to return the favor, because UA weren’t barbarians, they’d hold to their agreements.
But I doubt that UA would have accepted such a bargain: they’d have demanded surrender.
Geminid
@lowtechcyclist: I’m not sure the Ukrainians offered a safe corridor for Russians to retreat through. It sounds like they did not completely encircle Lyman, but had the one road out under artillery fire. There may have been tactical reasons the UA did not block that road before the Russians fled.
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy: here we go. podolyak
Gin & Tonic
@Chetan Murthy: The word the guy uses is “пидорас” (pidoras) – which is derived from the ancient Greek, the same as the French pédéraste or the English pederast. So it’s not just “faggot,” it’s child-raping faggot. It truly is a hugely insulting term.
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic: The, uh, shortening of the French term was in common use in the early 90s in France. I would expect that today, some other term is used. And you’re right: it’s a monstrous slur.
Anonymous At Work
@Carlo Graziani: Were I a Russian soldier wanting out, my commanding officers should fear those Ukrainian snipers shooting officers in the back from 10 feet away more than Putin. This is where NCOs matter most: keeping the officers above them alive and the grunts below them from bailing out.
Chetan Murthy
@Anonymous At Work: I think this is why RU has disciplinary battalions (the ones that shoot any soldier thinking of deserting or surrendering).
lowtechcyclist
This tweet from the Defense of Ukraine Twitter account suggests the Russians in Lyman all surrendered if they hadn’t already been killed:
Chetan Murthy
@lowtechcyclist: Maybe this is factual then: https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/09/30/its-a-slaughter/
Ukraine Volunteer Transcripts
“its a slaughter”
Spadizzly
@Gin & Tonic:
First installment in that direction was made back in March:
https://twitter.com/EerikNKross/status/1508890508046835721?s=20&t=MleSDo7fC7dV2GE5PS-kfg