Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Roe is not about choice. It is about freedom.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

“The defense has a certain level of trust in defendant that the government does not.”

The media handbook says “controversial” is the most negative description that can be used for a Republican.

The unpunished coup was a training exercise.

If you don’t believe freedom is for everybody, then the thing you love isn’t freedom, it is privilege.

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

In after Baud. Damn.

This chaos was totally avoidable.

Washington Post Catch and Kill, not noticeably better than the Enquirer’s.

The republican caucus is covering themselves with something, and it is not glory.

There is no right way to do the wrong thing.

Republicans firmly believe having an abortion is a very personal, very private decision between a woman and J.D. Vance.

The desire to stay informed is directly at odds with the need to not be constantly enraged.

Anne Laurie is a fucking hero in so many ways. ~ Betty Cracker

So very ready.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

We can show the world that autocracy can be defeated.

Every one of the “Roberts Six” lied to get on the court.

The only way through is to slog through the muck one step at at time.

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson is the bland and smiling face of evil.

Dear legacy media: you are not here to influence outcomes and policies you find desirable.

Balloon Juice, where there is always someone who will say you’re doing it wrong.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 248: A Short Update Tonight

War for Ukraine Day 248: A Short Update Tonight

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(Image by Sashko Danylenko)

I’m going to keep things relatively short tonight as I know everyone is still dealing with the news Cole shared about Lily.

I want to start with an answer to Alison Rose’s question from last night.

Adam, I’m curious for your take on this–I was discussing the war with a Jewish friend, and we were talking about the Iranian drones. She said she thinks part of the reason Iran is so readily aiding russia is because Zelenskyy is Jewish. I wasn’t so sure–I don’t know how the people in charge in Iran these days feel about Jews, though I assume it isn’t overly positive, and I’m pretty sure they would be bastards in this war no matter what Zelenskyy’s religion was. Plus I noted that he’s hardly the most observant Jew out there. (Of course, to an antisemite, that doesn’t matter. They don’t care if we keep kosher or hold seders or anything, a Jew is a Jew is a Jew and they hate all of us.) I figure Iran has numerous reasons (all of them evil) for being on russia’s side, but she felt certain that’s at least one of them. I should note she is older than I am, in her mid-60s, and originally from a red state, and so her point of view might be different, as she grew up in a time and place with more open antisemitism than I experienced.

Iran is aiding Russia because Russia is paying cash for the weaponry. Iran is also aiding Russia because Iran has been doing business with Russia for years on a whole host of projects. Russia provided Iran with specialists to help design Iran’s nuclear energy facilities. Russia and Iran have a railway project that connects Russia, through a lot of other places like Azerbaijan, and ultimately through Iran to the Arabian Sea and India. It’s called the North-South Transport Corridor. Russia is allied with Iran in Syria to keep the Assad regime in power. I think all of those are the reasons that Iran is selling weaponry to Russia and sending trainers to Crimea and Belarus to show the Russians how to use what Iran is providing. I have no doubt that if President Zelenskyy were Orthodox Christian, Catholic, or even Muslim the Iranians would still be selling weaponry to Russia.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!

Today we managed to return another 52 people from Russian captivity: 50 of our defenders and two civilians. Among them are soldiers of the National Guard, the Navy, border guards, security forces…

Andriy Albov is the head of the surgical department of the Mariupol military hospital, he was evacuated from Azovstal. Vasyl Chalenko is a volunteer, security guard, commander of the reconnaissance platoon.

Among these 52 are a sailor from Snake Iceland, as well as a National Guardsman who was taken prisoner while defending the Chornobyl nuclear power plant, and a pensioner who earlier worked in the SBU and who was taken prisoner by the occupiers in Bucha.

We remember all those held captive in Russia and in the occupied territory, and will do everything to return each and every one.

Our exchange team is always working. These are Budanov, Yermak, Usov, Lubinets and others who help. In total, since March, 1,031 people have already been released from Russian captivity. Thanks to the whole team for this result!

I would like to once again commend the work of our energy workers, repairmen, and regional administrations. All those who are working to restore the normal technical possibility of electricity supply after the Russian terrorist attacks.

Today, there are significantly fewer stabilization and emergency blackouts – much less. But there is still such a need, and in some cities and districts restrictions are still possible. In particular, it is Kirovohrad region and some other regions.

We do everything to make power outages as predictable as possible and so that people can plan their day.

Special thanks to those who worked and are working to restore energy supply to the city of Uman and the Uman district of Cherkasy region. There was indeed a difficult situation after one of the Russian strikes. As of now, it is possible to return the technical possibility of power supply.

The same situation is in Kyiv region: it was critical, but we are now changing it for the better.

I want to emphasize: the return of the technical possibility of supply does not mean that the energy shortage in the system has been overcome. Russian terror continues. It is very cynical. Sometimes it repeatedly attacks deliberately when repairs have begun, when recovery work is in progress. Unfortunately, we have casualties in repair crews, in energy companies. My condolences to their families.

Therefore, please – this applies to all Ukrainians – it is very important to be conscious of electricity consumption. This necessity persists. Now we all have to contribute to maintaining the stability of the entire power system.

During the week – from Saturday to Saturday – more than 40 Iranian strike drones, a significant number of Russian missiles, six attack helicopters of the occupiers, several of their planes were shot down…

Such a result means hundreds of Ukrainian lives saved, dozens of critical infrastructure objects saved.

And as proposed by the military command, today I want to especially note the Odesa and Kherson anti-aircraft missile brigades of the Air Force. Well done, guys! I also thank all our defenders of the sky, absolutely everyone – all anti-aircraft fighters, pilots, mobile fire groups, who are currently performing one of the most important strategic tasks – saving the country from airstrikes by terrorists.

Today, a rather predictable statement came from Russia – a statement that they are finally canceling the grain export initiative.

But in fact, this is not their decision today. Russia began deliberately aggravating the food crisis back in September, when it blocked the movement of ships with our food.

From September to today, 176 vessels have already accumulated in the grain corridor, which cannot follow their route. Some grain carriers have been waiting for more than three weeks. This is an absolutely deliberate blockade by Russia. This is an absolutely transparent intention of Russia to return the threat of large-scale famine to Africa and Asia.

Literally today, more than 2 million tonnes of food are in the sea. This means that access to food has actually worsened for more than 7 million consumers.

Algeria, Egypt, Yemen, Bangladesh, Vietnam, others countries – very different countries, from different parts of the world… But they can all be equally destabilized by this Russian decision to block exports.

I emphasize: this decision was made by Russia apparently in September. Only this queue of ships with food at sea can testify to this.
It is also important that Russia attacked our Naval Forces at least twice during the grain initiative. Precisely by those forces that guarantee the safety of the grain corridor.

A strong international response is needed now. Both at the UN level and at other levels. In particular, at the level of the G20.

How can Russia be among the G20 if it is deliberately working for starvation on several continents? This is nonsense. Russia has no place in the G20.

All partners see this artificial queue of vessels. They see what Russia did to disrupt the grain initiative. They see that even ships with grain, which are contracted within the framework of the UN Food Program for the poorest countries, do not get a guaranteed opportunity to pass through the sea route.

Russia is doing everything to ensure that millions of Africans, millions of residents of the Middle East and South Asia find themselves in conditions of artificial famine or at least a severe price crisis.

But why a handful of people somewhere in the Kremlin can decide whether people in Egypt or Bangladesh will have food on their tables? What is it? The world has the power to protect people against this.

Ukraine has been and can continue to be one of the guarantors of global food security.

Russian terror and blackmail must lose. Humanity must win.

I thank everyone who is fighting with us to restore peace and stability to international relations! I thank everyone who fights and works for Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Kherson:

Reports started trickling in early this morning that Ukraine had killed another Russian warship. The attack has been confirmed with video taken by a Ukrainian journalist and then rebroadcast. Though it seems the Russian frigate was only damaged, not sunk. Here’s the video with Pfarrer’s analysis.

In this second video, watch the top right corner of the screen at the 4 minute mark:

Russia has responded by blocking the Telegram app!

Here’s some valkyries for you:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

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Дуже люблю цей 1%😅🤭 #песпатрон #патрондснс

♬ Miss You (Sped Up Version) – _

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I really love this 1%😅🤭 #PatrontheDog #PatronDSNS

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

98Comments

  1. 1.

    Randal Sexton

    Thanks for the update.  Question: is there starting to be a focus on winterizing support for Ukraine ? Particularly with attack on infrastructure.  For instance, support to repair energy/heating infrastructure, and as far as the military, cold weather gear and support ?  Is this something we should be bugging our reps, and biden, or BJ fundraising for ?

  2. 2.

    YY_Sima Qian

    All the major militaries must be studying drone warfare in Ukraine closely. Presumably, a more competent military will be able to put up better defenses than the Russians to date, but the point of drones is that they are cheap, disposable, & can be swarmed. They can also be made partially stealthy. It represents a paradigm change for air defense, which so far have been organized against fast jets & slow cruise missiles. While they are definitely effective against slow, non-stealthy drones, the cost is exhorbitant, w/the munitions expended often more expensive than the drones shot down. (Same applies to the Russians launching S-300 missiles against HIMARS rockets.) The drone defense system being developed so far are still point defense weapons using small caliber cannons w/ high rate of fire, lasers, & microwaves. Not sure how well they will work against swarms.

    I am sure the Taiwanese, Chinese & US militaries are having nightmares about their use in a potential TW Strait scenario.

  3. 3.

    lashonharangue

    Thanks Adam for all your efforts.  I always read but rarely comment on your posts. Small nit – I think you meant to says Iranians would still be selling weaponry to Russia.

  5. 5.

    cain

    History teacher went from teaching history to making history.

    @YY_Sima Qian – great analysis .. drone warfare can be quite the game changer even for things like putting down domestic insurrection. You can bet the Iranians are watching too .

  8. 8.

    Geminid

    @YY_Sima Qian: There is an Israeli developed anti-drone “SMASH” system that consists of a large caliber rifle mounted on a quadcopter drone. An AI assisted, electro-optical fire control system is intended to make it a “one shot, one kill” weapon. The US and India are testing it, and I think the Dutch have already purchased some.

    There was a report last month that an Israeli company had sold anti-drone technology to Ukraine, and that it was routed through Poland with Defense Ministry approval. Last week there were reports that the SMASH system had been spotted on the battlefield in Ukraine, but that has not been confirmed.

  11. 11.

    Villago Delenda Est

    I think the real bottom line is that Ukraine paid attention during WWII, and Russia forgot all it learned.

  12. 12.

    Anoniminous

    @YY_Sima Qian: ​
     

    As I’ve written before, we are at the start of a wave of innovation in military technology to way beyond the 20th century combination of indirect fire artillery, machine gun, and barbed wire that killed so many people in the last century.

    As an illustration, it is possible to construct insectoid animats – artificial animals – 20 mm long, capable of locating and finding human targets, that can land, and inject poison through its stinger. Even today’s delivery systems can drop hundreds of thousands of these onto an enemy.

  13. 13.

    Patricia Kayden

    Apart from Iran and possibly China, which countries are helping Russia?  It feels as if they are getting assistance to keep this invasion war exercise going.  Maybe I was naive to believe that sanctions would have forced them to end the invasion by now.

  14. 14.

    Jay

    @dmsilev:

    All NATO Countries are supplying winter gear to the UA and various charities are providing winter gear for Ukrainian civilians,

    St. Javelin is fundraising and locally sourcing winter gear and bunker stoves for the TDA and Legions and generators for the UA.

  15. 15.

    James E Powell

    @Anoniminous:

    it is possible to construct insectoid animats – artificial animals – 20 mm long, capable of locating and finding human targets, that can land, and inject poison through its stinger.

    Gee, thanks. Not like my nightmares need more monsters.

  22. 22.

    NutmegAgain

    Question for Gin & Tonic, or other Ukranian speakers around this joint … I notice in the (machine?) translation of Pres Zelenskyy’s address  and a few other places, the catastrophic nuclear plant is spelled, “Chornobyl”. Is this preferred over the heretofore common “Chernobyl”?  Thanks for any insights.

  23. 23.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Patricia Kayden: There is no evidence that China is providing Russia any material assistance, either militarily or economically (such as evading sanctions), other than buying Russian hydrocarbons on the cheap.

  28. 28.

    Amir Khalid

    @Jay:

    Somehow, I’m not sure that blocking Telegram will do  much to protect Russia’s Black Sea fleet from drone attacks.

  29. 29.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: There are presumably weak points even in drone swarm attacks, if one knows where to look and one prepares.

    For example, I’m pretty sure that the telemetry that produced the footage from those naval drones was not relayed over a satellite link. There must have been a relatively close-by control station. Fast identification of control signals, fast jamming, fast direction-finding and destruction of local relay stations and controls seems like a much better defense strategy than attempting to swat individual drones.

  31. 31.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    (((Tendar))) and others believe the move is because worse news is coming. Demtri (War Translated) is going to have a much lighter workload, with Telegram shut down. Mobliks and Vatniks use Telegram for pretty much everything.

  33. 33.

    Bill Arnold

    @Matt McIrvin:

    Somewhere Stanisław Lem is ruefully nodding.

    First thing that came to mind was
    The Futurological Congress    , as my draft reply started  – “Or onto civilians. Maybe inject LSD or something else nonlethal with a very high LD50/effective dose ratio.”
    We (humanity) really need to seriously focus on fighting technology-empowered fascism/totalitarianism and their rise.

  34. 34.

    Quiltingfool

    Going to bother Gin & Tonic for a translation –  I want to name a quilt I just made (future Ukraine donation) “Ukraine Star Path.”   I can look it up, but I don’t entirely trust Google translation…

    Many thanks!

  36. 36.

    Jay

    Moscow Times: General Lapin resigns command of Russian Army Group ‘Center’ in Ukraine
    9:38 am, October 29, 2022Source: The Moscow Times
    Colonel General Alexander Lapin has been removed from his post as commander of the Army Group “Center,” according to sources of the Moscow Times and the RBK media group.

    The Chechen state broadcasting company Grozny also reported Lapin’s resignation without citing sources. The “patriotic” Telegram channel Grey Zone wrote about “reports” that Lapin was removed from his post.

    There is no official confirmation of this information.

    meduza.io/en/news/2022/10/29/moscow-times-general-lapin-resigns-command-of-russian-army-group-center…

  37. 37.

    Carlo Graziani

    Russia has responded by blocking the Telegram app!

    I bet Prigozhin and Kadyrov pitch a fit, and have Russian Telegram unblocked again, so that they can reconnect with their devoted followers.

  39. 39.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: Sure, but not against dumb drones such as the Iranian Shahed-136. The best way is still attacking the enemy’s targeting system & kill chain, same as before.

  40. 40.

    Cameron

    I saw something earlier (forget where) that the Russian response to the Sevastopol attack will be to cancel (or threaten to cancel) the grain agreement.  It was something pretty brief, so I don’t know how seriously to take it.

  42. 42.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Jay: That’s interesting. Just yesterday, Kadyrov was reported criticizing Lapin’s conduct of the war in the Donbas. And today, Chechen press sources hasten to report that Lapin is for the chop. Not Moscow sources, mind you.

    Kadyrov publically notches a kill on his fuselage. What a cretin. Does he think the generals aren’t keeping score?

  46. 46.

    Geminid

    @YY_Sima Qian: Yes, but the fire control system is said to be adaptable to weapons up to 40mm cannons. So they could be used on .50 caliber rifles or 20mm cannons as well. And I think soldiers with regular assault rifles have downed Shaheds when they happened to be in the drone’s path.

    On October 27 the Kyiv Post had an article about Ukraine’s use of the SMASH system. It does not sound like they have the “Dragon” drone+rifle version* but rather just the fire control system that could be attached to their own weapons. The drone version was still undergoing tests at the beginning of this year, and limiting export to just the fire control system would get around Israel’s stated policy of not supplying weapons to Ukraine.

    Ukraine could still put the systems on their own drones or light aircraft, and that would give them wider utility than just point defense.

    * The Eurasian Times article had a picture of one!

  47. 47.

    James E Powell

    Pardon my ignorance, what is Russian Telegram? A social media thing like twitter or facebook?

  48. 48.

    counterfactual

    @Carlo Graziani: Actually, that’s not the case. The Ukrainian sea drown has a Starlink satellite dish in the aft. That should give a good low-latency, High-bandwidth signal.

  49. 49.

    Jay

    @Cameron:

    Russia announced on Saturday that it will immediately suspend its implementation of a United Nations-brokered grain deal that has seen millions of tonnes of grain exported from Ukraine and has brought down global food prices. Ukraine accused Russia of creating a world “hunger games.”

    The Russian Defence Ministry cited an alleged Ukrainian drone attack Saturday against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet ships moored off the coast of occupied Crimea, which Russia says took place early Saturday, as the reason for the move.

    Ukraine has denied the attack, saying that the Russians mishandled their own weapons.

    The Russian declaration came one day after UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres urged Russia and Ukraine to renew the grain export deal, which was scheduled to expire on Nov. 19. Guterres also urged other countries, mainly in the West, to expedite the removal of obstacles blocking Russian grain and fertilizer exports.

    cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-kherson-hospitals-soldiers-1.6634248

  52. 52.

    Bill Arnold

    @Cameron:

    I saw something earlier (forget where) that the Russian response to the Sevastopol attack will be to cancel (or threaten to cancel) the grain agreement.,

    All over the news.
    The Russians surely must have understood that attacking civilian targets with surface-ship-launched cruise missiles would make those surface ships legitimate targets, and that their noises about ships providing “protection” for the grain shipments were universally understood to be LOL bullshit. (Mentioned this possible risk to the grain shipments here in July; it was obvious even then. Guess the new bomb-civilian-infrastructure guy is a shallow thinker.)

  54. 54.

    Ken

    @Jay: various charities are providing winter gear for Ukrainian civilians

    I find this remarkably reassuring, probably because of how when TFG’s best people were failing to provide PPE, the quilters and crafters sat down and churned out a hundred million cloth masks.  And in pretty prints, too.

  55. 55.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    as of Sept 3, 2022, there were over 2,300 Starlink satellites up there, and a Starlink terminal can connect to any one of them and even switch satellites mid call.

  56. 56.

    Geminid

    @Carlo Graziani: I think operators just load the the Shahed with GPS coordinates for a target and send it on its way. They can be reprogrammed in flight but that requires another drone like a Mojaher-6 to fly at a higher altidude in order to relay signals to the low flying Shaheds. A Mojaher operator could select targets for the Shaheds, which carry a 40 kilogam warhead.

  58. 58.

    cbear

    @Anoniminous: 

    , it is possible to construct insectoid animats – artificial animals – 20 mm long, capable of locating and finding human targets, that can land, and inject poison through its stinger. Even today’s delivery systems can drop hundreds of thousands of these onto an enemy.

    No shit, huh? Sounds interesting.

    Anybody know the coordinates for West Palm Beach?

    Asking for a friend.

  59. 59.

    Ken

    @YY_Sima Qian: But conceivably one can build swarms of drones armed w/ SMASH systems to hunt enemy swarms.

    The obvious escalation pathways lead to any of several killbot hellscapes, especially as we’re not even bothering with the First and Third Laws, and limiting the Second to “you will destroy the designated targets”.

  60. 60.

    OverTwistWillie

    Whether the ship sank or not, it was a mission kill.

    Some rumors going ‘round 

    that Lapin was found,

    floating face down…

  62. 62.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Jay: That’s as may be, but the optics of a parabolic dish is still about line-of-sight. 2300 satellites may sound like a large number, but  in aggregate they still cover a vanishingly small solid angle at the Earth’s surface. You still have to acquire and track at least one satellite, and to do that successfully, your platform cannot be bouncing around like a marble in a blender.

  63. 63.

    Anoniminous

    @Geminid: ​
     
    The SMASH system will soon be obsolete as a front line anti-drone defense system.

    The newest generation of military drones are being offered with jet engines: AB6 JetQuad drone gives the quadcopter concept a shot of jet fuel and China’s Big New Twin-Jet Long-Endurance Armed Combat Drone Emerges.

    “The CH-6 UAV’s parameters include maximum takeoff weight of 7.8 tons, maximum load capacity of 300 kg (reconnaissance type) or 2 tons (reconnaissance-attack type), fuel capacity of 3.42 tons (reconnaissance type) or 1.72 tons (reconnaissance-attack type), overall length of 15 meters, wingspan of 20.5 meters, height of 5 meters, maximum level flight speed of 800 km/h, cruise speed of 500 km/h to 700 km/h, cruise altitude of 10 km, ceiling of 12 km, a maximum endurance of 20 hours (reconnaissance type) or 8 hours (reconnaissance-attack type), a maximum range of 12,000 km (reconnaissance type) or 4,500 km (reconnaissance-attack type), a maximum climb rate of 20 m/s, and an operating radius (apparent) of 300 km.”

  64. 64.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Geminid: “They can be reprogrammed in flight” sounds like a designed-in security flaw in a device that is designed to br delivered to an enemy, and has a reasonsble chance of being captured intact and analyzed in detail.

  65. 65.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Starlink has options for use with ships, aircraft, RV,s, tanks, etc, so it would seem that they have figured out a way for a vehicle of some sort has the ability to communicate with the Starlink satellite networks while in motion, The data transfer rate is about half of the non-mobile links, but good enough for drone work.

  66. 66.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    for an opponent to reprogram them in flight, all they need is the name of the operator’s first pet, their mother’s maiden name, and their 4 favorite numbers, and one special symbol,……//

  70. 70.

    Anoniminous

    @Carlo Graziani: ​
     

    It would be a serious security flaw but that doesn’t mean the dummies didn’t add it as a “feature.” Noobie weapon designers make ALL kinds of stupid mistakes. The Iranians managed to capture the US RQ-170 stealth drone in 2011 by foxing the unsecured GPS and having it land at an Iranian airport.

  73. 73.

    Jay

    Oh man, such investigative journalism! "The Grayzone revealed that “NAFO” is not only a digital troll farm, but in fact a thinly-veiled fundraising campaign for the Georgian Legion" It was supposed to be SECRET, everyone! Who missed the memo?!— HermitFella 🇫🇮 (@uwwilo) October 29, 2022

  74. 74.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Anoniminous: The CH-6 likely forms part of the targeting network and kill chain to providing targeting solution for Chinese anti-ship ballistic missile against USN carrier battle groups. However, being non-stealthy, it will still be vulnerable to traditional air defense and combat air patrols. That also means they are cheaper to make, so more of them can be made.

  75. 75.

    Dahlia

    @Bill Arnold:

    “The Upside Down Revolution” from One Human Minute by Stanislaw Lem also comes to mind.

    The novel, The Invincible, also involves swarms of micromachines.

  77. 77.

    Another Scott

    The White House code slingers are having some Halloween fun. A bat is flying around the top centered WH logo.

    whitehouse.gov/

    They’re using some trickery I haven’t seen before (I’m not a coder) – it’s not a .gif.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  78. 78.

    Bill Arnold

    @Dahlia:

    The novel, The Invincible, also involves swarms of micromachines.

    Yeah, that’s probably the one that should have come to mind first (haven’t read One Human Minute; just bought). Was just amused that the discussion was reminding at least two (three?) readers of Stanisław Lem stories. (Hannu Rajaniemi is another writer to check out; contemporary.)

  80. 80.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @YY_Sima Qian: I am sure the Taiwanese, Chinese & US militaries are having nightmares about their use in a potential TW Strait scenario.

    Yes, that and the Persian Gulf and the Malacca straits.

    It’s quite likely a navy could come up with a counter to suicide drone boats. It’s basically a modernized verse of the Spar Torpedo. But civilian freighters is another matter.

  81. 81.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @Jay: Ukraine has denied the attack, saying that the Russians mishandled their own weapons.

    ROFL. You got to like the cut of their gibberish.

  84. 84.

    Chetan Murthy

    I periodically read people (or tweets) arguing that Kadyrov/Prigozhin trashing the RU MoD and generals, is going to backfire on them, b/c they’re making enemies in the MoD.  But I remember many articles describing how in Russia, it’s not the generals who have power, but the secret police.  That the Czar (and the General Secretary of the Party, and then Putin) all made sure to bowdlerize the military, b/c they were afraid of military coups.  Instead they wielded power thru the secret police (the siloviki), which they kept divided-up into multiple agencies, all spying on and beating-up each other.  And from what I understand, both K & P are tight with the siloviki.  I’ve read elsewhere that the military is basically bottom of the totem-pole of RU government power centers.

    So I don’t understand why one would think that rubbishing the  military is a bad career move for these fuckers ….

  85. 85.

    Geminid

    @Carlo Graziani: I expect the Ukrainians have captured a Shahed intact by now. They’ve already gotten an intact Mojahar-6. But I’m not sure being reprogramable in flight is such a big vulnerability. The order sent is a simple GPS coordinate but it would certainly be encrypted so as not to be easily interfered with.

  86. 86.

    Geminid

    @Anoniminous: The air mounted SMASH system is adequate as part of a layered air defense system for some current drone threats. It will certainly be made obsolete by energy weapons, which will be the next generation of air defense.

    Developing these systems has been a high priority for militaries for decades now. The US won’t say how close they are to deployment, but the new aircraft carrier class and a new destroyer class have electrical generation capacity well beyond their predecessors, and might be intended to carry energy weapons-lasers and such- before too long. That’s really they only way they’ll be able to survive in a future war environment.

  87. 87.

    Geminid

    Yesterday Reuters reported an ominous development in Iran:

         The head of Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard Corps warned protesters that Saturday would be their last day of taking to the streets, in a sign that security forces may intensify their crackdown on unrest sweeping the country.

    General Salami was speaking after the funerals of Guard Corps members killed in an attack apparently unrelated to the protests over the death of Mahsa Amini. He warned protesters:

    “Do not come to the streets. Today is the last day of riots.”

    ….Rights groups say at least 250 hae been killed and thousands arrested across the country in the protests, which have turned into a popular revolt by furious Iranians from all levels of society.

    Reuters October 29.

    These protests are now in their seventh week. The regime has tried to ride them out with beatings, arrests and sporadic gun fire. Both the protests and the repression seem to have intensified this past week.

    The general’s words suggest that the government has now made the decision to take savage measures like it did in “Bloody November” 2019. Then, by Reuters’ estimate the regime murdered 1500 Iranians while suppressing protests with machine guns, rooftop snipers and even helicopter fire. This wave of protests have gone on much longer and spread much more widely that those of 2019.

  88. 88.

    Geminid

     

     

    @Chetan Murthy: Russia’s power struggles are fairly opaque, and there are no reliable precedents for the current situation. I couldn’t assert with certainty that Prigozhin and Kadryov will be cut down to size, but I would not assert with certainty that they won’t be either.

  90. 90.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: & the entrances to the Suez & Panama Canals, the Red Sea, the Danish Strait, & the vicinities of any major port/naval base. A disguised cargo ship can deploy a swarm of such drones. We have not even gotten to the unmanned under-sea ones.

  91. 91.

    Geminid

    @YY_Sima Qian: These would not neccesarily be lasers. Radar waves penetrate clouds. Maybe a focused energy pulse on a similar wavelength would penetrate them too.

    At any rate, developing these weapons is a priority for advanced militaries. Israel has already knocked down drones while testing its “Iron Beam” energy weapon. It’s not operational yet but it probably will be by the end of next year.

    The U.S. Navy will not deploy energy weapons so soon. They have tougher threats than drones to counter. But the enhanced electrical generating capacities of the new carriers and destroyers may indicate that they intend to deploy energy weapons. And they kind of have to by the next decade; if they don’t they might as well scrap their surface fleet before a wartime opponent scraps it for them.

  92. 92.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid: Yes, the latest Type 055 destroyers (the USN calls them cruisers) of the PLA Navy are also believed to have excess electrical generation capacity to integrate direct energy weapons in the future. Clearly, the more advanced militaries are preparing for the future, even if that future is still not yet clear.

    So far, though, testing of shipboard direct energy weapons by the US have been against small drones and small motor boats at low speed.

    I don’t think radar wavelengths can be focused enough to physically destroy incoming munitions over anything but the shortest distances. Perhaps they can achieve a soft kill by frying the electronics of the incoming munitions/drones.

  93. 93.

    xjmuellerlurks

    Would it be possible to have POWs make the trip from Odessa to Instanbul on the grain ships?  It’s a two day trip.  Have them camp out on deck in tents.  Pick volunteers with family or who are wounded but able to travel.  They are not hostages since it’s voluntary repatriation via a sea cruise.  If the ships are attacked they are endangered.  I’m not suggesting that they go down with the ship if it sinks.  They disembark in Turkey and are (somehow) repatriated via a third party or picked up by Russia.  I realize that there’s an expense to this, as well as security issues.

  94. 94.

    RAM

    Given what just happened to those Russian ships, I predict anti-torpedo nets protecting naval anchorages will be making a big comeback.

  96. 96.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Chetan Murthy: The reason is a combination of history and circumstance.

    The history is that the military has a long institutional memory of being the arbiter of power in putsches and coups, which are the “traditional” constitutional processes in Russia, and were in the Soviet Union as well. The arrangements made by the siloviki have certainly not erased that institutional memory, or that sense of institutional prerogative.

    The current circumstances are that whatever State Security arrangements were made to emasculate the armed forces in favor of Kremlin-controlled security prior to the war, the 9 months of actual full-up war that have taken place since then have almost surely altered the case. The overwhelming majority of combat has been the responsibility of regular MOD-controlled forces, whatever the warlords may wish the world to believe. Combat support functions such as communication, intelligence, logistics supply and transportation etc. are also MOD-controlled. Prigozhin has been bitching in the media and on Telegram that MOD won’t deliver adequate supplies to his brave Wagner troops before Bakhmut, because he doesn’t have his own logistical operation, for example.

    This means that the generals now have something that they did not have prior to March: the ability to move heavy weapons and troops around the country using secured communications of their own, while selectively corrupting or dropping comms and intelligence to unfriendly combat commands such as Wagner. All this in a country where people absorb the basic principles of conspiracy in the nursery tales that are read to them as they are learning to chew solid food.

    The army might have been hogtied over a barrel by Rosvgardia last February, but Rosvgardia has been thrown into combat itself, and isn’t looking so fearsome these days. I’m sure the siloviki believe that they have the whip hand. That is the only possible interpretation of the warlords’ high-handed behavior towards the generals.  I  think that there is a pretty good chance that they might have reason to reconsider that belief by the time of their second bounce off the concrete floor of a Lefortovo Prison cell.

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