Much earlier today while poking around I came across the following:
BLACK SEA SHOWDOWN: A grain convoy has left Odesa in defiance of a RU blockade. Proceeding south, the convoy posses a dilemma for Putin: does he attack merchant ships in international waters, or does he back down and permit UKR to resume grain shipments?https://t.co/GtJKEFhIb4 pic.twitter.com/ymz0VfqbYk
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 31, 2022
And my immediate thought was to the opening of Star Trek 2: The Wrath of Khan. Largely because Putin is now facing his own no win scenario. Putin has already abrogated the grain deal, which is no surprise as he’s been stealing and reselling Ukrainian grain for months. But this convoy from Odesa creates a major strategic trap for him. If he does nothing, he looks impotent. If he attacks it he risks not only pissing off whichever countries those ships are registered with, also risks attacking a vessel flagged with a NATO country that’s part of the convoy and thereby putting Article V in play, but also running afoul of the UN and Turkey. Both of whom are involved in the inspection process for this convoy. The latest reporting I’ve seen is that Russia has two diesel attack submarines in the Black Sea. There might be a third, but the reporting is unclear as to where it is at. The remainder are either in for repairs or in the Mediterranean. While the Turks closed the Dardanelles to warships months ago, there’s a lot of international airspace over the Black Sea for NATO aircraft to freely transit on a regular basis. Including flying a combat air patrol that is not officially a combat air patrol for this convoy if someone decides this is a good idea.
And we’re back to the no win scenario for Putin. Do nothing and look impotent. Do something and risk significant blowback. This convoy and any others that are also going to put to sea have lots of nautical miles to transit before they’re safely in port, so we need to keep a weather eye on them. But every day they make smoke towards their destination and Putin does nothing is another day that Putin looks impotent.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Currently, restoration work is still ongoing in those regions where Russian missiles hit today. We are doing everything possible to restore energy and water supply. And we will restore it.
Russian terrorists do not have such missiles that could hit the Ukrainian desire to live, live in a civilized manner and take care of each other. And if someone over there in the Kremlin listened to their crazy propagandists and decided that the darkness in Ukraine would help put pressure on Ukrainians, then let them not be surprised at their losses when they see how Ukrainians conduct “negotiations” in the dark.
Today our Air Forces and everyone involved in protecting the skies did a great job. Most of the objects that the terrorists identified as targets were saved. This morning alone, the terrorists used 55 cruise missiles for a massive strike, 45 of which were shot down.
I thank all Air Forces Commands for this result: South, North, East and West, as well as all units of the Defense Forces involved in protecting our skies.
Plus, four more Russian helicopters were shot down today: three attack Ka-52 and one Mi-8.
Of course, we will continue to strengthen our air defense. But already now, for every ten hits, terrorists have to spend at least four times more missiles. Russia has an even worse result with regard to drones, including those supplied by its Iranian accomplices. And the world sees that. It sees that the former “2nd army of the world” is no longer even the 22nd in terms of its effectiveness. And we will do everything to make it into the second hundred. And it will be so.
I would like to especially mention the units and employees of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, who both last week and today eliminated the consequences of terrorist attacks. They worked even despite the threat of repeated strikes and extinguished dozens of fires.
A big gratitude to all energy workers, utility workers, local self-government, regional administrations – to each and every one who restores normal life.
The same gratitude to those of our people who, each at their own level, guarantee that there will definitely be a response to the terrorists.
There will be a response on the battlefield. And I want to remind you that the total level of personnel losses of the Russian occupiers is almost 72,000.
There will be a response to terrorists in international relations as well. Complete international isolation of the terrorist state is just a matter of time.
There will be a response in the area of criminal responsibility – everyone involved in Russian terror, everyone who organized, carried out and justified it, will be responsible for it before the international court.
Every new Russian attack on our civilian targets only makes the international consensus on Russia’s liability easier and closer.
And the fragments of the Russian rocket that fell on the territory of Moldova only remind us how important it is to protect ourselves from this evil together – from rashism, which recognizes neither state borders nor human values.
Today, the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic visited Ukraine – one of our greatest friends.
The Czech Republic currently holds the Presidency of the Council of the European Union, and this is how Russia treats European structures: during the visit of the Czech representative – 55 cruise missiles. However, no matter what they think in Moscow, Ukraine takes care of itself and does its own thing.
Today, we signed a special declaration with the Prime Minister regarding the Euro-Atlantic integration of our country. The Czech Republic has confirmed that it will support Ukraine’s membership in NATO. The declaration also contains specific directions of our cooperation for the implementation of NATO standards in Ukraine.
We are starting the work on signing such declarations with all members of the Alliance.
I had a call with German Chancellor Scholz. I thanked him for the provided IRIS-T air defense system, and informed about the results achieved by the German system. We discussed the possibilities of increasing German support for Ukraine, in particular in the restoration of our infrastructure after terrorist attacks.
I also spoke with UN Secretary-General António Guterres. I informed him about the new level of escalation due to Russian actions.
Terror against Ukrainian energy facilities, moreover against the background of Russia’s attempts to exacerbate the global food crisis, clearly indicates that Russia will continue to oppose itself to the entire international community. And if so, Russia should have no place in the UN Security Council and all other international structures.
I am grateful to both Mr. Scholz and Mr. Guterres for supporting our actions aimed at preserving the grain export initiative and preventing the spread of large-scale famine in some regions of the world. It is very important now to prevent this global destabilization that Russia seeks. And we can prevent it.
Today I signed three decrees on awarding our warriors. A total of 406 warriors of the Armed Forces of Ukraine received state awards.
I would like to separately thank the warriors of the units of the National Guard of Ukraine, who perform tasks in the Donetsk region. They perform them accurately and efficiently. They skillfully defend their positions and put significant pressure on the rashists. Thank you for this, guys!
Thank you to all those who make Russia get used to the idea that neither the army, nor terror, nor anything else will help them conquer Ukraine!
Glory to all our heroes!
Glory to our fantastic people!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Izium and Kherson:
IZIUM AXIS/ 2145 UTC 31 OCT/ UKR forces continue to pressure P-66 HWY, stressing Russian Lines of Communication and Supply (LOCS) between Svatove and Kremenna. UKR air defense reports downing a RU Mi-24 attack helicopter and one Su-25 ground attack aircraft. pic.twitter.com/w6aIqIj7t6
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 31, 2022
KHERSON /31 OCT/Though local sources report that RU troops are constructing defensive positions, preparations for the evacuation of individual units & equipment appear to be ongoing. It is assessed that at least some portion of RU forces on the N bank are to be withdrawn. pic.twitter.com/c447G3Rlnf
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 31, 2022
This morning all of Ukraine was under air raid warnings again:
And the air raid alert over Kyiv and many other regions — but not all yet — has been lifted after 3+ hours. Ukraine’s Air Force says Russia fired more than 50 missiles at targets across the country and that air defenses shot down 44. pic.twitter.com/MJ9llNqnRE
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 31, 2022
Again, Ukraine’s air defense has just been amazing so far. However, with the reports that Iran is not just selling drones to Russia to use against the Ukrainians, but also missiles and rockets, whatever can be done to accelerate upgrading Ukraine’s air defenses needs to be done. Additionally, whichever of President Biden’s advisors are exceedingly concerned that we cannot give Ukraine the capacity to hit targets that are farther out because it would lead Putin to escalate really needs to get clued in that Putin has already escalated numerous times. The Iranian missile and rocket purchases are just the most recent example.
Mood in Kyiv). #Ukraine #Kyiv pic.twitter.com/EaOafCcriz
— Kristina Berdynskykh (@berdynskykh_k) October 31, 2022
The other night someone – I think it was Ken – asked about who, if anyone, was supplying cold weather gear for the Ukrainian military and helping the Ukrainians prepare for winter given Putin’s targeting of Ukraine’s power generation and transmission infrastructure. For instance, the tranche of US military gear and equipment from mid September includes cold weather gear and supplies. The aid package that Canada announced in mid October also includes lots of cold weather gear in addition to other supplies. Other NATO allies are also sending winter weather gear and supplies to Ukraine too.
If you’re looking for charitable options, here are three. The first, of course, is the United24 initiative that President Zelenskyy established. They are collecting funds for infrastructure repair.
The second is Saint Javelin, which we’ve mentioned here several times. Christian Borys, Saint Javelin’s founder, and his folks have set up an entire section to either accept direct donations for winter gear and equipment for the Ukrainian Armed Forces or you can make a purchase of their branded Ukrainian “Winter is Coming” gear and donate that way. There is an entire breakdown of what they’re doing, how they’re planning on allocating the funds they raise, all the important details at this link.
A third option, which is not specifically focused on winter gear or rebuilding infrastructure, is Mriya Aid. If you’ve got another one you like, put it in the comment with a link.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
About today’s terrorist attack.
They spent half a billion dollars on rockets that left us without electricity for a few hours. Well – we just used this time, for example, to clean our houses. I was in the fields with my team. And I still don’t get it. Truly. Half a billion! pic.twitter.com/F3bU1JGkN4— Patron (@PatronDsns) October 31, 2022
#NAFO #NAFOfellas 👍❤️🔥 https://t.co/N5ESG5z9hF
— Patron (@PatronDsns) October 31, 2022
There is no new video tonight at Patron’s official TikTok – please try not to riot – but because he tweeted about NAFO, I give you the following:
And:
Open thread!
Martin
I like this gambit by Ukraine. Fortune favors the bold, and it seems like a good calculation.
Seeing reports that Russia may have run out of Kalashnikovs, which would be something. Has the GOP considered a lend/lease program from domestic militias using the NRA as a go-between?
Villago Delenda Est
Well, my Schadenfreude meter is poised to peg as VVP faces his no-win scenario.
NutmegAgain
First I just want to make a shout out to all and sailors and merchant marine who are on those ships and barges with the grain. May they get themselves and that cargo safely to port.
And, of course the NAFO crew. I just love those brain-damaged dogs. Myself, I don’t really use Twitter, so I don’t have a fella. But they make me smile. Theatre of the absurd and I am here for it.
Happy Hallowe’en to all~
dmsilev
@Martin: How is it possible to run out of Kalashnikovs? There must be millions of the things all over the world.
I’m just waiting for the first confirmed sighting of a T-34 in the combat area.
bbleh
Sigh, great. Putin in yet another corner. (He’s a multidimensional actor!) Not that I’m expressing sympathy, just the usual worry about rats in a corner. One trusts that when the decision was made to depart Odesa, it was very clear to all the parties what they were about to undertake, and that their understanding has been communicated in turn to Russia.
There must be studies somewhere of how to manage the decline of world powers gracefully …
Anoniminous
@dmsilev:
Back in July some militia pulled a T-34-85 off its pedestal and got it running. AFAIK, it was only used to block streets.
ETA: I don’t think they’d want to shoot any 80 year old ammo out of the main gun. The machine gun could be used? Maybe? If you’re desperate.
Leto
HIMARS Candy Delivery System
Alison Rose
I am interested and also terrified to see how putin does choose to respond to the ships. I imagine if he does nothing, he’ll offer up some bullshit explanation in order to insist that no, he is NOT impotent, he remains a master strategist!!
Also too:
I am always moved by Zelenskyy’s passion and thoughtfulness and intelligence, but I do also love the moments of snark.
The Fellas are certainly a worthy substitute for a Patron video.
Thank you as always, Adam.
tybee
someone i know is in the black sea on a merchant ship and he’s on a government contract.
this could be highly interesting in the next day or so…
Cameron
So President Putin has gotten tripped up implementing Deputy Defense Minister Baldrick’s cunning plan.
Anonymous At Work
More something for Chuck Pfaffer, but is there a way to demo a convoy at sea without being detected? Like how Russian blew the undersea pipeline: everyone knows it was Russia but Russia can deny it? Or is that too brazen for Putin to attempt and then deny?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Thanks for the update Adam. Nice Star Trek reference!
Anoniminous
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Temba, his arms wide!
HinTN
Whip it, whip it good! The Odesa departure is a fabulously STRONG gambit. Well done, UKR. Thanks, as always, Adam.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Anoniminous:
Sokath, his eyes uncovered!
Ken
No, though it’s nice to be noticed. I did ask how much “crowdsourcing” had been done in other wars, though I was thinking more of weapons than humanitarian relief. You expect the Friday Evening Baptist Sewing Circle and the Sisterhood of the Touro Synagogue to provide wooly scarfs and mittens — saltpeter is a surprise.
counterfactual
@Ken: I deduce you’ve never seen the musical “1776,” which dramatizes all the letters John Adams sent to Abigail to get the women of Massachusetts to make saltpeter.
Will
The convoy tweet is almost ten hours old at this point, judging by where they were they should be getting close to Istanbul.
I just checked the marine traffic website he cited and can’t find any convoy resembling his claim. It’s either already close to Istanbul or there is a second convoy gathering to leave. The position of this second convoy is 13 hour old position report so it could be the actual first convoy and Chuck doctored the image for his tweet.
Ken
@counterfactual: Um, I kind of quoted from Abigail’s final song…
Amir Khalid
@Anonymous At Work:
There may well be a way to sink that convoy of grain ships and escape detection, but it wouldn’t conceal Russia’s hand in such a war crime. The prerequisites for committing any crime are motive, means, and opportunity: only Russia would have all three.
Jay
Possible new world record,
Carlo Graziani
On the Kherson situation, I have a question for the naval weapons experts in our midst. Do there exist naval mines that the Ukrainians could deploy into the Dnipro, either by lobbing, by dropping from their existing aircraft inventory, or by drifting downstream, should they decide that they want to close the river altogether to Russian watercraft?
Tehanu
Me too.
Jay
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
yes.
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: Go on, I’m sure you were trying for a helpful answer.
Jay
@dmsilev:
Not even complete AK’s.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
air dropped naval mines have been around since WWII.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_mine
Soviet Union[edit]
The USSR was relatively ineffective in its use of naval mines in WWII in comparison with its record in previous wars.[69] Small mines were developed for use in rivers and lakes, and special mines for shallow water. A very large chemical mine was designed to sink through ice with the aid of a melting compound. Special aerial mine designs finally arrived in 1943–1944, the AMD-500 and AMD-1000.[70] Various Soviet Naval Aviation torpedo bombers were pressed into the role of aerial mining in the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea, including Ilyushin DB-3s, Il-4s and Lend-Lease Douglas Boston IIIs.[71]
Jay
@Jay:
stuck in moderation.
Mike in NC
Kirstie Alley was a hot Vulcan starship officer in the “Wrath of Khan”.
Will
If the ships that I think are the convoy are correct, they are expected to be in Istanbul by about noon on the 1st with the first expected to arrive in the next six hours so we will know soon enough.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
Soviet Union[edit]
The USSR was relatively ineffective in its use of naval mines in WWII in comparison with its record in previous wars.[69] Small mines were developed for use in rivers and lakes, and special mines for shallow water. A very large chemical mine was designed to sink through ice with the aid of a melting compound. Special aerial mine designs finally arrived in 1943–1944, the AMD-500 and AMD-1000.[70] Various Soviet Naval Aviation torpedo bombers were pressed into the role of aerial mining in the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea, including Ilyushin DB-3s, Il-4s and Lend-Lease Douglas Boston IIIs.[71]
There isn’t handy info on current Russian naval mines, with out a google search.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Mike in NC:
Too bad she turned into a Trumpist later on
Ruckus
@bbleh:
“There must be studies somewhere of how to manage the decline of world powers gracefully …”
Powers either change peacefully by vote or are thrown out by force (OK, occasionally by their own stupidity and avarice.) vlad won’t go peacefully although the possibility exists that he may go feet first.
Amir Khalid
Adam, I have a question that you’ve probably been thinking about already. Russia is bound to come out of this war with its military reputation in tatters and its influence over neighbouring countries diminished. What happens then to its role as a regional power? Who takes up the slack?
bbleh
@Ruckus: Right, but the larger question is the decline of SU/RU, which happens to be especially fraught because of all those nukes. As to this particular question, I am less concerned — though not not concerned — with Putin the individual actor, because he’s a long way from being an absolute monarch (although he is surely far more informed regarding the “larger question” than I am!) and more with the what the larger “Russia” will do.
Martin
@Carlo Graziani: Maybe?
I mean, such things exist, but I’m not sure that Ukraine has the kind of air authority to deliver it. Besides, sounds like HIMARS can do that at their discretion.
OverTwistWillie
Ruckus
@bbleh:
Never give someone like vlad too much credit for being human. He has been a lot of things in his 70 yrs but has always been about as inhuman as possible. He didn’t get to be the one in charge of a nation that has for at least the vast majority if not all of it, a leader who leads by fear and had earned that fear. Easily earned. My remark about going out feet first was not actually a joke, that seems to be the normal method of leadership change in his country. I’d bet money that he is far more worried about leaving that way and soon than a rather large number of other scenarios. He doesn’t sit at the other end of that table for no reason. And his replacement might be worse than him. He at least understood that having a group surrounding him that has a lot of their own ill gotten booty to protect is sound business practice in a country like his. I’d also bet that someone(s) have plans in place to end his tenure and possibly before he runs the place completely out of everything. No use stealing the country if there is nothing left.
Tony G
@dmsilev: When you have a military (and civilian) organization that steals and sells everything that isn’t nailed down, things tend to disappear.
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: What I am asking about are modern, NATO-standard naval mines, that are suitable for deployment in rivers, against shallow-draft vessels, potentially in conditions of strong current flow, which, it seems to me, creates a different type of problem to solve for a weapon designer than the problems addressed by open-water mines. I would further like to know whether such mines, if they exist, can be deployed by specific aircraft types at the disposal of the Ukrainians, or can they be dropped by drones, etc.
The bottom line is this: I rather expected the Ukrainians to start mining the river weeks ago. The fact that they haven’t suggests that perhaps they can’t, and I’d like to know why.
Geoduck
@Carlo Graziani: They don’t want to leave the river semi-permanently unnavigable?
Carlo Graziani
@Martin: It appears that while static targets such as pontoon bridges as certainly getting hammered, Russians ferries are still making enough successful crossings to sustain combat operations on the west bank. A determined mining campaign, if feasible, could put an end to that. So I’d just like to know the reason that it isn’t feasible, if in fact it is not.
Carlo Graziani
@Geoduck: I believe that modern mines are “smart”, and have deactivation protocols.
Tony G
@Amir Khalid:
Who takes up the slack? My bet is China. China, unlike Russia, has managed to be a brutal dictatorship that actually knows how to get things done.
bbleh
@Ruckus: yes, as to “Vova,” my certainly badly ill-informed guess is that his principal concern now is to salvage as much of his control as he can, and the management of his Excellent Ukraine Adventure has become secondary (although highly significant). As to “feet first” vs. retiring to his dacha to enjoy a “well-earned retirement,” I would say those are tactical matters, presuming a larger-scale outcome. But that larger-scale outcome is very much — I would say largely — dependent on Whither Russia, and that to me is in many ways unclear.
For example, will the security/oligarchic power structure in Russia decide that Putin’s Excellent Adventure needs for many reasons to be brought to an end, and Business As Usual resumed, which in turn would require Putin’s removal but might not change Russia’s larger position? Or will ambitious former-SSR leaders decide that this is the time to vigorously assert more independence, leading at a minimum to a more fractious “Russia” and possibly to further formal breakup and perhaps even armed conflict? And if neither occurs, and Putin somehow manages to land the increasingly decrepit plane he is flying, what then? A ruthless crackdown to try to cover up the damage? An uncontrollable restlessness among power centers emboldened by Putin’s loss that leads eventually to … some other arrangement? And of course all this is internal and neglects the complications of external relations, eg with China. Or … [insert other possibilities here]
Mighty Russia, nuclear-armed superpower and leader of the Eastern Bloc, couldn’t beat Ukraine. That’s a Big Deal. How does the US, or NATO or whoever, deal with this so it doesn’t spiral into an apocalyptic disaster?
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Pocket_Money
Naval mines have to contend with both tides and currents. The only difference between the Soviet YAM and YARM mines, is that the YARM is smaller, as riverine and lake craft are smaller than ocean going vessels, so the mine can be smaller.
Mines can be easily deployed from cargo aircraft or helecopters. They can be denonated by the magnetic field of a ship passing over, via contact, acoustically or by the induced pressure change of a vessel passing overhead.
The biggest issue with naval mines is that they are indescriminate, and once laid, difficult to clear. One storm or flood event can totally mess up ‘your” nice, precision charts of where “your” mines are.
So far in the conflict, there have been two confirmed sightings of YAM mines in the Black Sea, both broke free of their moorings and drifted, one into Turkish waters, the other into Romanian waters. It is unknown who laid them or when.
Anything the UA can do with mines in the Dnipro, they can do with artillary with out the risk of blowing up civilians.
Tony G
Good point about the grain convoy: “If he attacks it he risks not only pissing off whichever countries those ships are registered with, also risks attacking a vessel flagged with a NATO country that’s part of the convoy and thereby putting Article V in play, but also running afoul of the UN and Turkey.” There’s also the point that if Putin orders an attack on a convoy shipping grain it will make it absolutely clear to all but the most dishonest Putin-fellators that his regime is directly causing food shortages throughout the world. It’s been obvious for 8 months what Putin is doing, but his regime is still getting some international support. Putin is not Hitler between 1939 and 1943 — the leader of a powerful country that didn’t have to care about world opinion. Instead, Putin is the leader of a weak, incompetent country that needs support from wherever it can find it. This is a bold move by Ukraine, that just might work.
YY_Sima Qian
I don’t see Putin attacking the convoy, even w/ SSKs. However he might use the SSKs to lay mines outside of Odessa, or at least declared to have done so.
Randal Sexton
@Alison Rose: I wonder what this particular convoy represents in the total percentage of wheat that UK exports. Maybe Putin’s play would be to let this one go, and then take out some of the others when attention has died down, goal being to reduce or greatly reduce exports and minimize the backlash.
Tony G
@bbleh: Joe Pesci made a career out of getting whacked in Martin Scorcese films, because his characters were too unstable for the made men. Maybe Pesci can make a comeback in “The Vladimir Putin Story”.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
most landmines are “dumb”, ditto for marine mines.
“Smart” mines mostly have a “best before date”. When the clock winds down they either deactivate or self destruct. There arn’t many out there as most nations abandoned mines other than controlled mines like Claymore mines.
PARM mines for example, don’t care what drives into sensor range, Russian tank, UA Tank, ambulance, supply truck, Uber or Lyft. They are all “targets”, and those are one of the most modern and specialized deployed NATO mine systems.
YY_Sima Qian
@Tony G:
@Amir Khalid:
Probably China in Central Asia, the EU in Belarus, & Turkey in the Caucasus. There might be a scramble among China, Japan & South Korea in the Russian Far East if authority of Moscow is sufficiently weakened, not in terms of grabbing territory, but buying up resources & assets on the cheap.
Tony G
@Tony G: This grain convoy is interesting (to me) in contrast to the World War Two situation. One of my uncles (long since deceased) had been a Merchant Marine crewman during the war. (He survived the torpedoing of one of the ships.). During that war, of course, there was great secrecy surrounding the times, locations and destinations of the convoys. In this situation, Ukraine is openly announcing what they’re doing because, in effect, they’re daring Putin to risk the blowback from attacking the convoy. By that logic, Zelenskyy will loudly announce each subsequent grain convoy. Clever move, that I hope will work.
Carlo Graziani
@Jay:
Artillery is currently insufficient to close the river to Russian ferry crossings.
Jay
@Randal Sexton:
as of Oct. 21, there were over 150 ships in the current backlog, so 13 ships would be far less than 10% of Ukraine’s grain exports. Keep in mind that grain shipments run year round.
Tony G
@YY_Sima Qian: That’s true. “Smart” countries (like Japan since 1945) have learned that weaker countries can be dominated economically, with no direct military force. Putin — not so smart.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
currently, UA arty in the Kherson area is busy with many different things.
Frankensteinbeck
@Tony G:
Yeah, I’m wondering when and how this is going to come into play with the arms deals with Iran. Someone in Russia is looking at that money and those goods and working on a scheme to get a cut that the boss definitely, totally won’t find out about. Probably a dozen someones.
Chetan Murthy
@Tony G: Germany too learned this lesson.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
How does one run out of Kalashinkovs? As has been pointed every half arse rebel band over the planet has a cave full of AKs.
Tony G
@YY_Sima Qian: I just looked up the history of Siberia (so now I’m an expert). Apparently Siberia (and the Russian Far East) were not part of Russia until about 300 years ago. That’s a long time, but it’s relatively recent compared to the history of the European part of Russia. If the government in Moscow continues to demonstrate its weakness and ineptitude, maybe we’ll see the central and eastern parts of Russia — the parts that are thousands of miles away from the “leadership” of the country — break away and come under the influence of China, Japan and other East Asian countries. (In other words, maybe Putin will un-do the empire of Peter the Great, instead of being a new Peter the Great.)
Chetan Murthy
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
giggle *snort* That’s how the Russkies ran out! They sold out!
Chetan Murthy
@Tony G: http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/10/mongols-view-welcoming-kalmyks-buryats.html
“Mongols View Welcoming Kalmyks, Buryats and Tyvans Equivalent of Israel’s Repatriation of Jews”
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Anonymous At Work: The issue is the convoy is being escorted by the Turkish navy which Russian needs a friend. Also, this a double humiliation for Russia because the Russian defeat of the Turkish in the 1850 was one of those things that marked Russia as a major power.
Jay
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
AK’s wear out and get damaged. In the Soviet Union and Russia, these weapons were supposed to be inspected, repaired and refurbished, treated with cosmoline and put into storage for future use. Same when Russia downsized the Military.
For some reason, that did not happen, (quell surprise), so the weapons being pulled out of arsenals and issued to the Mobliks are rusty, dirty, defective.
That of course does not account for all the AK’s that “should” be in the Russian inventory, so it appears that over the decades since the break up of the Soviet Union there has been some shrinkage in Russian arsenals.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Chetan Murthy: It would seem more likely the Russian are running out of new high tech version they’ve been making recently or the ammo, since war consumes just appalling amounts of material.
Geoduck
@Carlo Graziani: I was thinking more they might fill the river with wrecked boats, creating a navigation hazard.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@YY_Sima Qian: I had read several times that China considers Siberia a stolen province of theirs.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Jay: Ok, that makes more sense.
way2blue
I tend to be an analog person. A few months back I’d been fretting—seeing videos of soldiers firing HIMARS rockets w/o ear protection—when I found an outfit (based in NYC) on twitter that had an option to gift ear protectors to the Ukraine military via Amazon.
e.g., » https://twitter.com/SignMyRocket/status/1581046796285284352?cxt=HHwWgMDUnefrgPErAAAA
I recently asked them about purchasing thermal underwear to send to Ukraine. FWIW. The following is our email exchange (perhaps Gin & Tonic or Jay can weigh in if they think I’m off track… ):
Tony G
@Chetan Murthy: That’s right.
Tony G
@Tony G: It’s a cliche but, I think, a true one. Every government (including that of Our Great Nation) ultimately relies on force. That’s why cops exist. But a regime the relies only on force and fear is fragile — in the sense that once the regime demonstrates its weakness, the fear will dissipate and the regime will fall apart quickly. Maybe we’ll see that happen to Putin (and, perhaps, to Russia as a whole).
Jay
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
AK-103’s arn’t for conscripts, AK’s and AKM’s are.
New AK’s are about $700 USD, (for Russia), AK-103’s are $1600 USD (for Russia) with around 250,000 made.
Ruckus
@Tony G:
The world has changed a lot since WWII. In many ways things done then do not work now. We have the ability to see things we absolutely could not then.
Mines are one of those things that likely have mostly past their sell by date. As others have stated mines are non selective, run into them or even get close enough to them and you very likely have a sunk ship as the mine does not care who owns or runs into it. We had large cables that ran around the inside of the DDG that I was stationed on called degaussing cables. If necessary the hull of the ship could demagnetize to reduce the attraction of magnetic mines. The head electrician was working on them one day just before we were to sail and got shocked and his heart stopped. Someone did compressions on him and they got him to the hospital and he joined us a few days later. He didn’t know what happened, he should not have been shocked but things don’t always work as intended. This was 50 yrs ago and I’d bet that navy ships still have the cables, but I’d also bet that a lot of mines have been removed. Too much risk to friendly ships and a lot of other weapons exist that could take the place of them. Carlo asked about mining a river. A river has a rather strong current, and yes there is such a thing as tides but what happens to all that moving water if a boat is sunk? Does it stop running or does it go someplace else, like flood the countryside? What does freezing weather do, what do mines do when hit by ice floating by? I’d bet mining a river is pretty much the last thought of.
Tony G
@Chetan Murthy: Hah! The revenge of Ghengis Khaan. So maybe Mongolia will become a regional power while Russia becomes a backwater — just like the way things were 800 years ago.
Jay
@Ruckus:
The Soviets mined rivers quite a bit during WWII, with much more primitive mines than today. Few ships in a navigatable river are going to be large enough to “dam” the river and cause flooding. Most of the mines that were used/could be used, lay on the bottom, and most rivers that would experience ice dams or bottom scouring, are too shallow for significant commercial marine shipping.
When the Danube dropped due to drought this year, not only were bombs, sunken shipping found, but in the eastern Danube, Soviet Naval Mines. (Air dropped).
Tony G
@Ruckus: Interesting point about mines. I have zero military experience (I managed to avoid getting drafted during Vietnam), but your point about the inherently uncontrollable nature of mines makes sense. Another family anecdote: The same uncle who survived the torpedoing of his ship in 1942 ended up losing most of his hearing in 1946 (after the war) when another ship hit a mine in he Mediterranean that apparently everybody had forgotten about. (He learned to read lips and lived a happy life for the next 47 years.)
Ruckus
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
There is the possibility that many of the factories are undermanned because a few of the citizens are being diverted to users rather than manufacturers of said weapons. Also all the grift and corruption that seems to be normal in Russia seems to weaken the quality and quantity of requested and actual production. And I’d bet that exactly no one is going to tell vlad that as it might lead to them falling out of some handy 5th floor window.
YY_Sima Qian
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Yes, the Russian Empire took most of Siberia from the indigenous populations through conquest, then much of the Russian Far East (Outer Manchuria) from the Qing Empire in the 19th Century via a series of unequal treaties. However, only the most rabid ultranationalists ever pine for the return of “Outer Manchuria” (or Mongolia, for that matter), not something encouraged by the CCP Regime. Very much a fringe sentiment. If you ask an average Chinese on the street, he/she may respond that those lands were once part of China, stolen by Russia during China’s “Century of Humiliation”, but very few will express any strong opinions about trying to recover those lands. More like how Mexicans might feel about the lands lost to the US. Contrast this w/ how the vast majority of Mainland Chinese will respond wrt Taiwan.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@YY_Sima Qian:
What about what the people of Taiwan want? Out of curiosity, how would they respond to that question?
YY_Sima Qian
@Tony G: As long as Moscow as working nukes, I don’t see the Far Eastern regions completely breaking away, or any foreign power actively fomenting such separatism. In addition, Ethnic Russians make up > 90% of the populations in Primorsky Krai, Khabarovsk Krai, Amur Oblast & Jewish Autonomous Oblast, regions closest to NE Asia. The fear of the “Yellow Hordes” is never too far under the surface among many Russians, & that fear is the strongest in the Russian Far East. W/o Moscow they would be in the awkward position like Australia in the Asia Pacific, but w/o the protection of British Empire or the US hegemony.
However, these regions could attain ever greater autonomy, possibly even some degree of autonomy in security, economics & trade spheres.
YY_Sima Qian
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I am sure some variation of “Let us decide our own fate!” Except a tiny minority who are still ardent Chinese nationalists.
My point is that all the suggestions that China will somehow march in to physically occupy Russian Far East is the stuff of fever dreams. However, China is quite serious about Taiwan (from Sun Yet-sen, to Chiang Kai-Shel, Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, & now Xi Jinping), at least in preventing de jure independence in the near term.
TheMightyTrowel
@YY_Sima Qian: For what it’s worth, my colleagues in Japan have spent the last decade building extensive and growing research collaborations and scholarly networks with Mongolia, the Russian far east and Kazakhstan. That may not seem like a very important thing, but archaeology has been all wound up with nation building since it emerged as a discipline in the 19th century and the way a government invests in archaeology is often a good guide to how they see their future nation-building activities developing. All I know is the japanese government has been throwing a lot of money into building thick archaeology networks in NE asia with japan as a key hub.
Tony G
@YY_Sima Qian: Good point: nukes. And, yes, those faraway regions are dominated by ethnic Russians. So maybe the fate of Russia will be just a weakening of an already weak country, without an actual breakup of the country. (A weak country with nukes. Pretty dangerous.)
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@YY_Sima Qian:
Whoops, I think I phrased it wrong. I meant how would most Mainland Chinese respond to the question wrt Taiwan of “What about what the people of Taiwan want?”
How would they react if it were pointed out to them that the CCP government is hypocritical and imperialistic when it comes to Taiwan because they’re acting in much the same manner that foreign powers did during China’s “Century of Humiliation”?
YY_Sima Qian
@TheMightyTrowel: Japan has been doing this since the Meiji Reformation. Japanese scholars were prominent in Chinese archeology until the early 1930s, until a generation of Chinese archeological pioneers started to make their mark. It was intertwined in the imperial enterprise of justifying domination of China, because Japan was supposedly the true inheritor of the Tang Dynasty civilization, while the Qing China has been bastardized by the Khitan, Jürchen, Mongol & Manchu invaders. They were also big in exploring the Tungusic origins of the Japanese people & language (at the same time while others were promoting the notion that the Yamato civilization is pure & indigenous to the islands ), better to justify Japan colonization of Manchuria & a potential grab of the Russian Far East.
Japan scholars today probably have less nefarious motive.
Ruckus
@Jay:
The Soviets have done a lot of things that was not anywhere near the things that the rest of the world’s militaries do or did. They currently do not have much of an NCO type of military because they seem to think only top and bottom. Which leaves the actual work and leadership to way too few people that likely really don’t have all that much of an idea what actually works. That DDG I was stationed on for 2 yrs did have an NCO segment, like all US military and those were the people that taught those below them, that knew the equipment and how to operate and fix it, and actually did the dirty day to day work. My direct boss was an ensign who didn’t know how to lead/command, how to communicate, what anything on the ship did, how to work it or especially work on it and he was a complete asshole. Most, not all the officers were similar if not to his degree. The navy would not work if not for about 10% of the officer corp and the NCOs. And that is the Russian military format, officers and troops. NCOs are what make the US military work on a day to day basis. Russia is so fucked up that it doesn’t trust almost anyone to do anything, except those at the top and they don’t know how to do most of the day to day stuff that ordinary people do. The rethuglican party is pretty much the same. They think Herschel Walker could be a senator? WTF.
NotMax
@Ruckus
West/Walker ’24!
(snark to da max)
YY_Sima Qian
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): During the “honeymoon” period of 2008 – 2016, you might have some Chinese quietly question why the people on Taiwan should not have a voice in their ultimate fate. It was a time when a lot of Mainland Chinese visited Taiwan for business & pleasure, & the general impressions were positive. Even then, what you will hear most often is that Taiwan was robbed from China by Japan at the point of the gun, returned to China after WW II, but then kept separate from the PRC that had been established as the legitimate government of all China (through winning the civil war) by the US from 1950s on. “Whether TW can have (de jure) independence is a matter for all Chinese, on both sides of the Strait, to decide!” The history of Taiwan is very complicated, & the narratives promoted by the CCP regime, Chinese nationalists in general (including those on TW), the pro-independence types on TW, & the US all suffer from being reductive, selective, revisionist & self-serving.
Since 2016, w/ the rapid deterioration of cross-Strait ties, there has been a hardening of sentiments on both sides, rising nationalism in Mainland China, & rising anti-Mainlander nativism in TW. The plunge in cross-Strait people to people ties, due 1st to government policies on both sides of the Strait, & then due to the pandemic, made it worse. Now, TW Strait risks becoming once again the front line of a new Cold War, which makes things that much worse.
Pappenheimer
@Tony G: The above river mining conversation notwithstanding, the next move by Putin could be to blockade Odessa with mines and announce the fact. Mines could be laid by sub or air, as well as by ship (which would be more vulnerable). A (Turkish) Navy vessel striking a (Russian) mine also comprises a casus belli, but it’s not as likely as aimed weaponry to start a war.
Pappenheimer
Or, what YY_Sima Qian said.
YY_Sima Qian
@YY_Sima Qian: People on Mainland China does not see Chinese claims to Taiwan as imperialist in nature. From their perspective, Taiwan, like Hong Kong, were integral parts of China that were wrestled away by imperial powers through forces of arm. Surely many on Taiwan will disagree.
There are problems w/ both of the prevailing narratives. While the Qing Empire had ruled parts of Taiwan for nearly 2 centuries before ceding it to Imperial Japan, mostly as part of the Fujian Province, that rule was relatively weak, & only extended to the coastal plains that the ethnic Chinese from the Mainland had seized from the indigenous populations & settled. The mountains were left to the devices of the indigenous peoples. The Qing court abandoned the Chinese population on Taiwan after ceding it to Japan. The Chinese settlers (who then saw themselves as Chinese) tried to organize resistance, even declaring a Taiwan Republic to avoid subjugation by Japan. However, the Qing bureaucrats fled, & little help came from the Mainland. Both the Chinese settlers & the aboriginals suffered much slaughter in the ensuing couple of decades of Japanese colonial rule.
OTOH, many pro-independence types see themselves as the native population of Taiwan, victimized by the “colonial” KMT regime that fled the Mainland in 1949, while ignoring their own colonist-indigenous dynamic w/ the true aboriginals (who are Polynesians), whitewashing the brutalities of the Japanese colonial rule, & playing up the non-existent “influence” of the very brief periods when Spaniards & Dutch had set up outposts there in the 15th century.
There are obviously imperial aspects to Chinese rule of Xinjiang & Tibet, though no country actually challenges the legitimacy of Chinese rule there. There were also aspects of the KMT’s treatment of the local ethnic Chinese population that echo imperialism.
If China lays claim to Singapore, northern Vietnam, Mongolia, the Russia Far East, or northern Korea, that would be imperialism in action. Taiwan is kind of sui generis.
oldster
“If you’re looking for charitable options, here are three….If you’ve got another one you like, put it in the comment with a link.”
Yesterday’s post on Ukraine
https://balloon-juice.com/2022/10/30/war-for-ukraine-day-249-life-imitates-art/
featured the efforts of a medic/medevac crew that listed a PayPal link.
I somewhat rashly tossed them some coin, but with the acute awareness that I have no real knowledge where my funds went to. So I sent them a sum I was willing to lose.
I’ll probably stick to the three you list above from now on — there are a lot of scammers out there.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@Ruckus: Similar to what Musk’s doing with Twitter, it seems – purging the corporate equivalent of the NCO cadre without any care as to what that does to institutional memory.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@Tony G: Quite a few things have been reversed in comparison to the World War II convoy system – satellites can pinpoint a convoy at pretty much any time, so hiding becomes much less relevant, and this convoy isn’t bringing supplies into a war zone, it’s exporting food out, so the argument about interdiction of shipping doesn’t work out the same way. Weirdly, the grain convoy is better served by publicity than by secrecy.
Doesn’t hurt that the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is sitting at the bottom of the Black Sea, either.
Shalimar
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Kirstie Alley was already a Scientologist even before she became famous. She was nuts many decades before she became a Trump supporter.
Ruckus
@Bruce K in ATH-GR:
Very good comparison.
I think it goes like this:
Elon – I lead from the top, because I’ve got all the money so I must know what I’m doing.
The world –
Hey dipshit, where’s the light switch?
Hey dipshit, where are all the people that used to be on twit?
Hey dipshit, if you know so much about money, why did you pay double the nominal value?
Hey dipshit, how do you get up in the morning without understanding that you are a dipshit?
Hey dipshit, we already knew you were the chief twit…. you didn’t need to tell us.
Geminid
I could not find any recent reports about the grain convoy. I guess in this case no news is good news.
. Qatar-based Al Jazeera put up an article yesterday:
The article quoted the Turkish Presdent:
An interesting statement. Erdogan threw Putin a small bone by recognizing that Russia has gripes about impediments to their own export. He also charactetized Russia as “hesitant” when they had said affirmatively that their suspension of the grain deal meant they would allow no grain to be shipped.
Erdogan said that Turkiye would act “decisively” and it has. Instead of telegraphing this move he grabbed the bull by the horns and made it. Russia was given no time to make a plan or climb further out on a rhetorical limb. Since Russia only suspended the grain deal its members of the UN commission administering it are still in Istanbul; they probably were notified that the convoy was sailing.
The Al Jazeera article also noted that the Turkish Defense Minister spoke to his Russian counterpart and emphasized that it was “extremely important for the grain deal to continue.” I expect that Mr. Shoigu, the Russian Defense Minister, took his counterpart’s message seriously. If it came to a shooting war, Turkiye would have the military advantage over Russia in the Black Sea even without the help of NATO.
Geminid
@Geminid: While looking for reports on the grain convoy I came across an interesting article in Ukrinform(?), about the a newly launched Turkish-built Ukrainian warship. On October 2, Ukrainian First Lady Olena Zalenska and Ukrainian Navy chief Aleksiy Neyezhpapa attended the christening in Istanbul of the corvette Hetman Ivan Mazepa.
The ship still needs fitting out and will be delivered in 2024. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Resnikov said that its home port will be Sevastopol.
Jinchi
I think he’ll let those ships leave. He’ll probably try to block any future trade convoys from arriving at Odesa.
trnc
Putin bluffs all the time and is largely ignored by the people who count, so it doesn’t seem like he cares whether or not he looks weak on any given threat.
Torrey
@oldster:
It looks to me like the medic is probably valid, as (a) Adam pretty carefully curates the content here, (b) there was an AP news article about the medic linked in Darya Zorka’s penultimate tweet in the BJ segment confirming the information, and (c) the AP article says that Chornobryvets’ (the medic’s) “efforts were publicly praised by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, when the leader accepted an award in May from the Atlantic Council, the Washington-based think tank, on behalf of the Ukrainian people.” So that’s some fairly decent support. I sent a bit of money as well.
I’d also like to note, while we’re at it, that I appreciate the fact that when Zelenskyy receives an award, he tends to talk about it in his thank-you speech as an award given to the Ukrainian people.
Geminid
@Jinchi: The Turkish president is a very stubborn man, and Turkiye has the stronger Black Sea navy as well as a capable air force. Putin might not want to cross him in this matter.
Geminid
@Jinchi: But I repeat myself.
Tony G
@Bruce K in ATH-GR: Interesting points. Yes, during WW2, as I understand it, strategic electronic intelligence did not yet exist, so human communications were spied on and were heavily censored. (My family used to get letters from my uncle in the Merchant Marine with half the text literally cut out with a razor.). In addition, Germany and Japan were powerful countries (at least until 1944) that had no need to or desire to attract support from other countries, so they had no qualms about sinking ships that were carrying non-military cargo. Russia now, in contrast, is a weak, failing country that needs whatever international support it can get.
Tony G
@Geminid: Yup. And, of course, Turkey can, if it chooses to do so, block Russian ships from entering the Mediterranean Sea. And Turkey, being a member of NATO, cannot be attacked by Russia without, effectively, triggering World War Three.
Tony G
@trnc: Putin is what my Calabrese father used to call a cafone — big talk, but he doesn’t get the job done.
RaflW
@Ruckus: My mother’s best friend was married to a US Navy diver. He was part of the 1974 mine clearance (Task Force 65 final report pdf) in the Suez canal. The guy was one of the calmest, coolest people I knew as a kid.
He’d dive to look for sharks on his vacations.
Looking back, in Feb of ’74 the Egyptians said it would take 6 weeks to sweep the canal. It took nine+ months with help from the US & French and British teams plus of course Egyptian forces.
Geminid
@Tony G: Also, Russian needs to export its own grain past Istanbul. And Turkiye has other high cards. It can impose the economic sanctions other NATO countries have but Turkiye has not, and ship more weaponry to Ukraine. And if pushed, Turkiye can wipe out the Russian Black Sea fleet from Crimea west, probably even without NATO’s help.
oldster
@Torrey:
Thanks, Torrey. That gives me some reassurance that my money went to the right hands.
I hope it will do them some good. God knows they deserve our support.
way2blue
I tend to be an analog person. A few months back as I was fretting about videos of Ukrainian soldiers firing HIMARS rockets w/o ear protection—I found a group (based in NYC) on twitter which has an option to gift ear protectors via Amazon. I recently asked them about sending thermal underwear to Ukraine. FWIW. I’ve pasted the email exchange below. (Perhaps Gin & Tonic or Adam can weigh in if they think this is off track… )
see, for example » https://twitter.com/SignMyRocket/status/1581046796285284352?cxt=HHwWgMDUnefrgPErAAAA
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
(N.B., I submitted this note last night, but for some reason it never arriived… )
Carlo Graziani
@Tony G: Funny. In the north, “cafone” is “ill-mannered”, with overtones of low social class.
Carlo Graziani
@Pappenheimer: Mines could also be laid by appropriately-modified Ukrainian drone boats on the approaches to Sevastopol. Some Russian naval officer would likely point this out in the planning stages, if this sort of idiocy got that far.
Ryan
I just can’t stop imagining a HIMARS firing the photon torpedo at the Enterprise
Tony G
@Carlo Graziani: Exactly. For my father, calling a guy a cafone was the ultimate insult.
Tony G
@Geminid: That’s right. Turkey (and, in the past, the Ottoman Empire) has had a choke point on Russian shipping for centuries. Putin doesn’t learn from the present, let alone learn from history.
Tony G
@Tony G: The way my father used “cafone”, the connotation was “a jerk with a loud mouth who can’t actually do anything useful”. I don’t remember him actually calling anybody a “cafone” to the guy’s face, but I often heard him muttering the word in frustration.
Ruckus
@RaflW:
The Suez Canal is 120 miles long, 79 ft deep and 673 ft wide. It’s going to take a while to check the entire canal for mines. Especially if ships are using it. And as this is a major transit route that saves a huge amount of time and fuel not having to go around the southern tip of the African Continent, Cape Horn, unless the canal is closed or blocked it is going to take time.
Geminid
@Ruckus: One of the most important minesweeping operations of the Second World War was making the Scheldt estuary safe for shipping. It wasn’t much more than 20 miles, but once Canadian troops cleared German forces from its banks it took four more weeks to make the Scheldt safe for shipping. It was a high priority operation because it connected the big port of Antwerp to the North Sea. Until the Scheldt was opened in the latter part pf November, 1944, American forces had to haul most of their supplies from Normandy.
British forces captured Antwerp on September 5. The German Army did not have time to destroy the port’s facilities, but they were given just enough breathing room to dig in and deny the Scheldt to the Allies. They also were able to ferry over parts of their 15th Army that were stranded on the western side.
The failure of General Dempsey to clear the banks of the Scheldt while the Germans were “on the bounce” was probably the single worst mistake made in the Allied drive from Normandy to Germany. While Dempsey was the man on the spot, this error can be debited to his commander, Montgomery, The British Navy told Montgomery how essential control of the Scheldt was, but he let his subordinate drop the ball.
Clearing the banks of the waterway was a grueling, cold, wet and bloody job. Naturally, Montgomery gave it to the Canadians.