(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Last night Russia once again attacked Ukrainian civilian targets over night.
The terrorist state continues its missile and drone attacks on peaceful 🇺🇦 cities, just as russia's top war criminal promised.
Last night, 🇺🇦 air defenders shot down 3 out of 10 Kalibrs and 9 out of 10 Shaheds.
All russian missiles have foreign components. The current level of…— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 14, 2023
Last night, russians attacked #Odesa with four Kalibr cruise missiles.
Three people were killed, and 13 were injured.#russiaisaterroriststate pic.twitter.com/JpBsj0JuEa— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 14, 2023
Here is President Zelenzkyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
When the ruins disappear, it is not just the aggressor who loses, but the very idea of aggression – address by the President of Ukraine
14 June 2023 – 23:19
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
I have just spoken with President of Poland Andrzej Duda – an hour-long conversation, primarily on security issues. The current situation on the battlefield, weapons for our military, and ammunition. I thanked him for the fulfillment of previous defense agreements.
Of course, in every conversation we pay considerable attention to long-term security and peace guarantees, and not only for us. And always effectively.
Poland is quite realistic about the need for Ukraine’s membership in NATO. And this is an objective need. We are jointly developing a concrete content for the NATO Summit in Vilnius. This is exactly the moment when Russian assumptions that someone in NATO is still afraid of Russia must be completely shattered. Such assumptions fuel Russia’s aggressive ambitions. We must and can neutralize them. We thank Poland for its support for Ukraine and the real strengthening of NATO.
Not only today, but throughout the week, we have been preparing very substantively for the Ukraine Recovery Conference to be held in London next week. This will be a significant event, very representative, which will unite both political and business efforts to restore our country and normal life for our people. The key Ukrainian principle is simple and fair, namely: no ruins will be left in Ukraine. We will rebuild everything, restore everything, and we know exactly what steps need to be taken in what timeframe and with what forces to defeat Russian aggression and rebuild our country. When the ruins disappear, it is not just the aggressor who loses, but the idea of aggression itself. And it will happen.
Every day, in preparation for this London conference, we hold long and thorough preparatory meetings – all the necessary state institutions are involved, at different levels. And we are doing everything to ensure that the appropriate level of international agreements is prepared for our vision, the Ukrainian vision, which is, as always, meaningful.
We continue our communication with partners on Russian missile production. Today, Russian savages launched another missile attack on Odesa with Kalibr missiles. Dozens of components of these Kalibr missiles were supplied to Russia from other countries. Obviously, each such supply route is a way to strengthen terror. The world has the tools to cut off all such routes – from every country, from every company whose components are used by Russian missile manufacturers
Today, I signed new decrees to honor our warriors with state awards, including the servicemen of the Air Force, our air defense, those heroes who save the lives of our people every night, every day. Also, our intelligence officers and servicemen of the Armed Forces – combat brigades and units – were awarded. In total, 331 warriors. 331 heroic lives.
Please always remember that all of us in Ukraine owe our lives to those who stood up to defend the lives of our people and our independence. Respect for our warriors, respect for the families of our warriors, respect for the wives and husbands of all those who have stood up to defend the state is a must. Gratitude to these people is a must. Ukraine knows how to be grateful, and it should be shown every day.
I thank everyone who is fighting and working for our victory. I am especially grateful to everyone who is currently fighting in the east and south of our country, opening up strategic space for Ukraine, space for movement to victory. I thank all those who are now on the offensive and on the defensive, who are storming the occupiers’ positions and repelling their attacks. Thank you all, warriors, for your bravery, for your resilience and for every meter of progress!
Glory to our heroes!
Glory to Ukraine!
Minister Reznikov announces the latest tranche of US military aide to Ukraine:
Armored vehicles, anti-tank weapons, and ammo. This is what we need to protect our land and help the russians to find their way home. That is our plan for this summer and beyond – until we win.
Thank you to Lloyd Austin III @SecDef and the American people for another package of… pic.twitter.com/yKAno5iKDP— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) June 14, 2023
Here’s the full text of Minister Reznikov’s tweet:
Armored vehicles, anti-tank weapons, and ammo. This is what we need to protect our land and help the russians to find their way home. That is our plan for this summer and beyond – until we win. Thank you to Lloyd Austin III @SecDef and the American people for another package of security assistance!
Привіт з Дикого Сходу) pic.twitter.com/k14ugFqLVV
— Juice_Fighter (@_juicefighter_) June 14, 2023
Lord, guard and guide the men who fly
Through the great spaces in the sky,
Be with them always in the air,
In dark’ning storms or sunlight fair.
O, Hear us when we lift our prayer,
For those in peril in the air.
Apparently, Kadyrov’s key lieutenant has been injured and is also missing.
Ehm… wut.
This is from Kadyrov's Telegram channel. pic.twitter.com/CYVPkmaGdL— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 14, 2023
Here’s the screengrab of the translation:
/1. Russian media report that Delimkhanov, Deputy Prime Minister of the Chechen Republic, was wounded in 🇺🇦. He took an active part in Russian invasion of 🇺🇦. Also in the morning, some Ukrainian sources were the first to talk about Delemkhanov, but it was stated that he had died. pic.twitter.com/rpvp9KgxWW
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 14, 2023
/3. On the 12th June, Prymorsk was hit with supposedly Storm Shadow missiles. Back then, on the day of the strikes. Some sources hinted that there was a strike on the location of "very fat officers of the Command Platoon of the Chief Tik-Toker. (Kadyrov)”https://t.co/bkVCYvjMUj pic.twitter.com/h9TwRtJz5l
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 14, 2023
Hanging on the edge on my seat in anticipation of a Wagner vs Kadyrov spree — and getting ready to gladly cheer for both teams 🍿
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 14, 2023
If Delimkhanov is alive and well, just let him go online and say this.
What’s the problem here for the lord of all Tick Tock?— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 14, 2023
The Financial Times reports that the US, UK, Germany, and France are developing a multinational security framework and agreement for Ukraine in lieu of NATO membership. (emphasis mine)
The US and its closest allies are pursuing a multilateral agreement with Ukraine that will allow western powers to provide long-term security assurances to Kyiv, in lieu of a concrete promise of Nato membership for the war-torn country.
The so-called Quad — the US, UK, Germany and France — is working on an overarching political declaration with Ukraine, according to officials who declined to be identified given the sensitivity of the talks. They said that, under the umbrella declaration, Ukraine would conclude bilateral agreements formalising the current level of military and financial aid — and establish it on a more long-term footing with space to expand it if deemed necessary.
But neither the framework document nor the bilateral agreements would have the status of legal treaties and they would be signed outside the Nato alliance. Discussions are ongoing and a deal could be reached before Nato’s summit in Vilnius next month, officials said, while cautioning that there was no formal agreement between the western countries on a timeline.
A US official declined to “go into private diplomatic conversations” but said the Biden administration was in talks with Ukraine and its allies on “how we can reassure Ukraine about their long-term security to deter any future aggression after this war ends”.
“We are advancing this goal by providing the support Ukraine needs now on the battlefield and helping them strengthen their military over [the] long term,” the official added.
The Quad’s offer falls far short of Ukraine’s demands for Nato membership or some form of timeline for that, which would bring Kyiv under the alliance’s Article 5 mutual defence pledge.
Ahead of the Vilnius summit, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had demanded a road map for Ukraine’s Nato accession as well as security guarantees for his country.
But western officials are wary of dangling the prospect of Nato membership before a country that is still at war. Alliance members cannot at this stage pledge to go to war on Ukraine’s behalf with a nuclear power like Russia, should it be attacked again, officials said.
“We don’t take in countries with an open border dispute, and ones that are, in the case of Ukraine, in a full-scale war,” said one. “It’s the wrong time to talk about Nato membership [for Ukraine].”
Officials say that the discussion about Nato membership for Ukraine obscures the more pressing need for bolstering Kyiv’s defences against Russia. They say the focus of western countries should be on providing the necessary weapons, as well as financial and political support, to both repel the invasion and deter future threats from Moscow.
It’s one thing to reiterate that Ukraine cannot join NATO until the war is over and there is no longer a territorial dispute that would, because of its charter, prevent NATO from extending membership to Ukraine. It is another to state that until NATO membership can be extended, then a multilateral security and defense agreement is going to be put in place as a bridge. What the Financial Times is reporting is neither of those. Should this reporting be accurate, what is being proposed is strategic malpractice and will only further teach Putin that his strategy of invading and occupying the territory of states and societies that he wishes to control is feasible, acceptable, suitable, and effective!
Kremina:
Russian sources say that the HIMARS strike that led to hundreds of casualties near Kreminna, it took place earlier today. Involved was the 20th Army and its general, Sukhrab "If they die, they die" Akhmedov, known for last year's Vuhledar kamikaze charge. The Delimkhanov incident… pic.twitter.com/MgQTuk0mJ1
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 14, 2023
Here’s the full text of the translation in Dmitri’s tweet:
Russian sources say that the HIMARS strike that led to hundreds of casualties near Kreminna, it took place earlier today. Involved was the 20th Army and its general, Sukhrab “If they die, they die” Akhmedov, known for last year’s Vuhledar kamikaze charge. The Delimkhanov incident appears to be completely unrelated: “Yesterday Putin was talking about how inefficient parquet generals are, and today there are reports in the Kreminna area a strike was dealt at the units of one of the divisions that were waiting for a speech from the division commander. They say that they waited two hours in one place. As you might guess, the only things that arrived were HIMARS and artillery. As they write, the responsibility is on the commander of the 20th army, General Akhmedov, who managed to become famous with Muradov near Ugledar.” t.me/warhistoryalco
For clarity, there is no indication that the Russian General Sukhrab "Let them cook" Akhmedov of the 20th Army was killed in the HIMARS strike near Kreminna. He is believed to have ordered soldiers to gather in one area and stay there for hours which led to their mass demise.…
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 14, 2023
And the full text of Dmitri’s tweet:
For clarity, there is no indication that the Russian General Sukhrab “Let them cook” Akhmedov of the 20th Army was killed in the HIMARS strike near Kreminna. He is believed to have ordered soldiers to gather in one area and stay there for hours which led to their mass demise. Again, this incident does not appear to be related at all to the mysterious disappearance of Adam Delikhmanov.
Odesa:
I'm terrified to look at my phone the morning after night attacks. Today my favorite city Odesa was hit. Right in the downtown. This building housed an interactive museum just opposite the university. Three people killed. Awful. pic.twitter.com/PyRUHPWZUl
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 14, 2023
That’s enough for tonight,
Your daily Patron!
The new episode is 🤩 Check it: https://t.co/radynry172
Tell me what you think in the comments on YouTube, please 😊 pic.twitter.com/R3NWHwUVEh
— Patron (@PatronDsns) June 14, 2023
And a clip from the new episode at Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Я до вас з гарною новиною! Нова серія мультфільму вже на моєму YouTube🤗 Посилання у шапці профілю!
Here’s a machine translation of the caption:
I come to you with good news! The new series of the cartoon is already on my YouTube🤗 Link in the header of the profile!
Open thread!
Anonymous At Work
Definitely starting to look like RU’s “strategy” to prevent the defensive collapses from the last UA offensive is to send senior officers to the front-lines for morale and direct C&C operations. Which is forgetting what happened last time they did that.
Also, need to give a shout-out to Idaho Senator James Rish for blocking a military aid package to Hungary. Orban, Putin’s poodle, gets his HIMARS when Sweden gets into NATO. Good on him. Not hard-ball quite yet but moving that direction.
dmsilev
@Anonymous At Work:
The
beatingsartillery strikes will continue until morale improves.YY_Sima Qian
The kind of security arrangements w/ the European “Quad”, and similar arrangements w/ Baltic, Scandinavian & CEE countries, is probably a more realistic path forward for Ukraine than NATO membership.
Yutsano
@Anonymous At Work:
Okay Risch, now do Türkiye!
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: If I understand Adam correctly, his issue is that instead of saying “We can’t take you until the war is over, so *until then* here’s a multilateral guaranteed program of military and civil support to ensure you’re properly supplied; but as soon as the war is over, you’re *in*, man, no application, no pathway, no nuthin’ — the day the war is over, if you want ’em, we’ll send garrisons from all NATO countries to help you keep the peace.”
That would be sensible, and respect the important value of “not starting a nuclear war”. But instead, they leave off the latter part. To my mind, that’s malpractice.
Eolirin
@Chetan Murthy: I don’t know that they’d even need to bypass the normal process, rather than just fast track it some.
Andrya
@Chetan Murthy: Malpractice indeed. We already gave Ukraine a security guarantee in the Budapest Memorandum (which russia also signed): and we see how much good that did. And, thankfully, Biden was president when russia attacked: for the foreseeable future, the next Republican US president will throw Ukraine to the wolves if he possibly can.
Chetan Murthy
@Eolirin: I think the problem with even “fasttrack” is that you have to get TR and HU to approve …. *when the process starts*. So let’s say the war ends on 1 Jan 2024: sometime after that, TR and HU will vote, right? Imaginer how long that process can get dragged out, and what concessions that bastard Orban will demand.
Whereas if NATO *today* votes to admit Ukraine *conditional on the war ending with Ukrainian victory* then all the jockeying, haggling, and hostage-taking/ransoming, happens *now* and Ukraine can then be confident that the minute the kick Putler’s ass, they’ll get a multilateral security umbrella.
P.S. And also, I’m just reminded of how we told both Georgia and Ukraine “not now, but sure sometime soon (we’ll admit you! pinky swear!)” and BOOM Putin knew what to do to prevent that ever happening.
randal sexton
With regard to Ukraine joining nato – the prohibition against allowing nations that have border disputes joining nato, on its surface seems maybe ok but fails in this instance. All Russia would have to do is keep a border dispute going,which at this point I wonder if Russia is even capable of NOT having border disputes with its former client states. Perhaps this quad proposal thing is an attempt to deal with this.
Chetan Murthy
@Andrya:
Yes! This is why it needs to be a fait accompli that UA gets into NATO the minute the win the war. So that whoever it is (President Blake Masters (gag me)) will be unable to undo it without blowing up the alliance.
I think there’s a term for this in negotiation: something about “committment” or some such? Where you credibly commit to an action, so that others can rely on it, and more importantly, so that your counterparty (fucking Putler) can know that he can’t somehow negotiate you out of that action.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: If Ukraine joins NATO only after the war ends, that gives Putin (or successor) strong incentive to never end the war, even if Ukraine drives the Russians back to the internationally recognized border. Then there is matter of whether countries such as Hungary, Türkiye & even Greece would ever let Ukraine into the NATO.
Article V does not in fact obligate the members states to do more than what NATO countries are already doing in Ukraine, if one comes under attack. Then the question becomes whether these (aforementioned 3) countries would allow NATO forces to fight in Ukraine against any future Russian aggression, as opposed to equipment & logistical support.
LadySuzy
Ukraine needs more air-defense systems against missiles. ASAP. While Kiev and its region are pretty well protected, other cities and regions are more vulnerable.
How many of those damn missiles Russia still has ? And is still able to produce ?
Alison Rose
I would certainly like to hear from whoever in NATO what the war being over looks like to them. Because it will never be over in putin’s mind, nor in the minds of many in the kremlin and russia as a whole. What would NATO’s criteria be for proving that the war was over? If there are a few loser orcs still traipsing about with guns in Crimea, does that constitute a “border dispute”? Sigh.
I like this line. I hope Zelenskyy writes a book after his political career. The collection of his speeches they published last year was great, but I would love a full text from him looking back over his whole experience.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian:
That is not the common (and my own) understanding of Article V. Rather it is (per https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm ):
So an attack on Ukraine would be treated as an attack against the USA (if Ukraine were a member of NATO), right?
All that said, sure, I agree that this gives Putler/successor strong reasons for never ending the war. But all that means is that we must give Ukraine enough weapons to destroy — *destroy*, not merely defeat — RU’s armed forced, including all their bases in Russia proper, until such time as Russia gives up. Which they will, sooner or later. And if we give Ukraine enough weapons, then Ukraine’s territory will not be the location of fighting or bombardment: instead, all the bombardment will happen over Russian territory.
As for HU/TR/GR, better to have this argument out with them *now*, while UA is fighting, than *later*, when UA has won and Russia is licking its wounds. Because we have the luxury of (a certain amount of) time, right now.
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy: I mean, there’s the alternative, right? Ukraine is a technologically advanced society. They can build their own nukes and delivery systems. That’s the alternative, and frankly, I think all NATO countries should understand that that is a *worse* alternative then forcing — *forcing* — HU/TR/GR to say “yes”.
Gin & Tonic
@LadySuzy: Kyiv not Kiev, please.
Anonymous At Work
@dmsilev: And you know what time it is!
(Seriously, Stormshadows take out a few more stars and Kerch, they should get their own song too)
Bill Arnold
@randal sexton:
This is one of the things that made Putin’s ordering of a full scale invasion of Ukraine inexplicable, if halting NATO expansion was the primary motivation. (It was not.) All Russia had to do was place occupation troops in the Eastern areas already under Russian de-facto control, with limited contact between Russian and Ukrainian troops. That and Crimea would have guaranteed a (manageably) permanent border dispute.
The unanimous consent requirement of existing members for accession (of new members) would have done the rest, as Sweden’s and Finland’s difficulties have more recently made clear.
So now NATO members are devising extra-NATO ways around this unanimous consent rule. Sucks for Ukraine, though it is very bad (worse) news for Russia.
YY_Sima Qian
And the talk of Ukraine in NATO is kind of moot when NATO countries are not yet providing enough support to Ukraine to enable a speedy conclusion to the large scale conventional clash part of the war.
I think we are seeing just how costly it is, even w/ western equipment & training, to breach prepared defenses even if held by semi-competent/semi-motivated defenders, particularly in a battlefield environment filled w/ cheap & expendable drones to provide situational awareness & direct artillery fire. In fact, we saw some of that in reverse in Bakhmut.
It is ridiculous that the Ukrainian Army has only been provided a few hundred Western IFVs in advance of this year’s offensive, and more are only sent when this stock is attritted. APC & MRAPs aren’t well protected enough to assault against fixed positions. Yes, superior western equipment have better protected the crews & many of the losses are salvageable. However, it still takes time to drag the damaged kit back to depot to be repaired. There should be spare Bradleys in reserve so that the saved crews can get in another one and return to the front to sustain the offensive momentum.
The Ukrainian Army is still breaching the 1st line of main Russian defenses, AFAIK. Yes, it may take weeks of hard fighting to achieve breakthrough, so we all have to be patient & maintain our perspectives. However, the Ukrainian Army will likely suffer a lot of equipment & personnel losses achieving the breakthrough. Western equipment donations really have had the disturbing feel of “Just in Time” & “Just Enough”, when every military doctrine ever in world history has relied upon to achieving overwhelming superiority, at least locally.
Anonymous At Work
@Chetan Murthy: But UA building their own nukes doesn’t cut against either TU or HU’s own immediate self-interests in a way that overrides their concerns. How does UA having nukes impact support for Kurds in TU? How does UA having nukes hurt HU directly?
That’s what TU and HU will hang their hats on. Right now, Erdogan is keeping Sweden out of NATO until Sweden starts beating Kurdish supporters in their streets. I think that’s literally what Erdogan wants to see first. And who knows what Orban will require. It took the EU threatening millions in aid to make Orban budge for Sweden and Finland; I don’t think the EU wants to be the local enforcement arm for NATO, so I wouldn’t want to count on the EU strong-arming Orban like that again.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: Article V obligates the members states to “take such actions as [the member state] deems necessary, including the use of armed force”. It does not obligate member states to use armed force to assist in the defense of a member state under attack.
During the Cold War, against the enormous military might of the Warsaw Pact, it was naturally understood that all member states will have to employ armed force (to varying degrees) in their mutual defense.
Carlo Graziani
Mostly OT: Yesterday, Silvio Berlusconi, the patriarch and forerunner of all the post-Cold War illiberal populist demagogues, finally slithered off the mortal coil, and is presumably now being spit-roasted over a tar-and-dried-shit fire in Hell. May Putin, Orban, Bosonero, Farage, Modi, BoJo, and of course that vile bucket of poisoned lard, Trump, speedily join our Silvio.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Ha! Worthy of celebration!
NutmegAgain
@Anonymous At Work: Yeah–somehow adapting the old Cat Stevens tune doesn’t cut the mustard. Needs something NAFO-approved.
Sally
@Anonymous At Work: Stormy weather … keeps rainin’ all the time ..
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: The link I posted was from NATO itself; nevertheless, if your interpretation comes to pass, NATO will be over. Or more precisely, if European NATO allies start parsing what “collective defense” actually means, they’re basically daring the US to go “nuclear umbrella? what nuclear umbrella? We were pinky-swearing all this time!”
I think it would be *enormously* dangerous for any NATO ally who’s serious about their defense, to allow such an interpretation to become established.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: OK, you made me dig it up:
This seems pretty unambiguous. But then again, so does the first part of the Second Amendment, so maybe you have a point.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: I don’t know if an MRAP with a 12.5mm machine gun counts as an Infantry Figting Vehicle, but as of last November Tirkiye had provided 200 BMC “Kirpi” MRAPs to Ukraine. That was reported by Oryx’s Stijn Mitzer in his excellent article, “The Stalwart Ally: Turkish Arms Supplies to Ukraine” Oryx November 21, 2022.
Reports are that Turkiye supplied another 50, maybe 100 more MRAPs this Spring, with a heavier 14.5mm gun mounted in a remote control turret.
The actual number of weapons supplied by Turkiye is not well known because unlike other NATO countries, Turkiye does not publicize them. Mitzer says he finds out about them from Ukrainian officials, or when they appear on the battlefield.
For instance, Turkiye provided Roketsan(sp?) 220mm guided missile systems comparable to the US HIMARS system weeks before the well publicized HIMARS made it to the battlefield, but this was only made public in November.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: MRAPs are mine-resistant personnel carriers, not nearly as well armored as IFVs. They cannot withstand heavy machine guns or small caliber cannons.
They are useful in keeping the occupants alive when hit by mine or IED, thus great for counterinsurgencies . I highly doubt any NATO tactic would allow MRAPs to be at the tip of a breaching operation.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: Ahem and harrumph. I think the answer is:
“has gun? Is
potatotank”Geminid
@Chetan Murthy: The ambiguity is in the phrase “…such action as it deems neccesary…”
If Russia were to attack Poland, would Spain be obligated to send a company to Poland, a battalion or a brigade? What if they just sent armaments, like they are now sending to Ukraine? Who could make Spain do more?
There may be a treaty obligation, but as a practical matter compliance still seems voluntary.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: The mutual defense commitment is unambiguous, the nature of “assistance” has ambiguity. Wrt to the letter of the treaty, member states could be considered has having fulfilled their duties by providing the kind of aid they have provided Ukraine, employing armed force is included as potential option but not obligated (last sentence of your quoted paragraph). Politically, it is another matter, as well.
There is a similar misunderstanding w/ the ANZUS treaty among the US, Australia & New Zealand (which NZ suspended in 1986 due to US coercion over access for its nuclear subs). It obligates “consultations” among the parties should any one member is attacked, & that they “act” to meet the common threat, without actually stipulating the required actions. Of course, there are many in the US & Australia trying to shift the interpretation of the treaty as obligating Australia to join in any war the US is engaged in, specifically a war across the Taiwan Strait.
These treaties are always written to provide wriggle room to its sovereign members, otherwise there would be great domestic resistance to sign on. Achieving actual unanimity of purpose & action constantly requires a lot of negotiations, enticements & even coercion (“alliance management” is the euphemism), as well as special circumstances that actually threaten all parties.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: What they are called is a matter of semantics, but there is a huge difference in how they can be effectively used at the tactical level, dictated by their armor protection, firepower, & mobility.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: I think these MRAPS are fairly well armored, at least as well as American Strykers. They do not have the armament of a Bradley, but I don’t know if the armor is much inferior. The Kirpis may end up being deployed in units with T-72 tanks, or the modernised T-55s.
Guess it’s time for me to check out the Wikipedi entry for “Kirpi;” the MRAP that is, not the Turkish hedgehog.
The Oryx article I cite at #28 is well worth reading. Besides listing weapons systems provided, Mitzer describes a little bit of the recent history between Turkiye and the Wagner Force, in Libya. He also describes an important difference regarding Turkish weapons; unlike other NATO allies, Turkiye does not prohibit their use against targets on Russian soil.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: Oh, we agree. I’m just making a joke, based on that meme with all the different fighting vehicles, the school bus, the tractor, the combine harvester, all labeled Leopard.
Chetan Murthy
@Geminid: I agree that all compliance is voluntary. All I’m saying is, if RU attacked PL, and ES merely sent some tanks (and other *stuff*), that would be the end of the Alliance. Or at least, that would be tantamount to ES leaving the Alliance, right? And (assuming that PL survived), PL’d start working on nukes the next day. As would every other frontline state in NATO.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Well, the Strykers are APCs that are not as well armored as IFVs (Bradleys, Marders & Boxers, especially up-armored ones), & are not designed to serve on the tip of the spear breaching fortified defenses, either. Some of the Cold War era IFVs in Ukraine service, such as the BMP-2s, are not much better than modern APCs in protection.
I think the rule of thumb is IFVs have armor that can withstand small calibre cannons (& RPG fire) on the frontal arc & heavy machines on the sides, have small caliber cannons to provide fire support, & the modern ones have commander independent thermal imaging sights for greater situational awareness. They are designed to fight along side tanks in either frontal assaults to achieve breakthroughs or maneuver warfare.
These days the distinction between IFVs & APCs are becoming blurred, but traditionally APCs have less armor (protection against heavy machines guns only along the frontal arc), less firepower (heavy machine guns only, some on stabilized remote platforms), lower situational awareness (no independent sight for vehicle commander, in fact no vehicle commander), higher mobility (due to lower weight), & lower logistical requirements (due to lower weight). APCs are battlefield taxis designed to get troops from point A to point B, w/ some protection, & can provide some fire support in a pinch.
AMX-10RCs, MRAPs & APCs are better suited for running wild in the Russian rear, after the heavy mechanized units have breached the fortified defenses & achieved breakthrough. Technical on Toyotas are good for this, too, as we saw at Kupyansk.
Geminid
@Chetan Murthy: Spain might have an isolationist, pacifist Parliamentary majority at the time a war broke out. In that case there would still be 21 other NATO countries to assist the one that was attacked. So that would not be the end of NATO. I expect the other countries would not kick Spain, a member for 70 years, out under those circumstances, but rather would hope that Spaniards would see their error and elect a more responsible government.
Sweden provides a reverse example. It is not a NATO member, but that would not bar them from coming to Finland’s aid, or help the other Baltic countries if they were threatened by Russia. Sweden now has a formal air defense alliance with NATO members Norway, Denmark and Finland. Swedish military representatives have participated in NATO planning since last year. In a practical sense, Sweden is a member of NATO already. It’s not like Russia is going to bypass the other Baltic countries to attack Sweden anyway.
This is one reason that I’m not getting all strung out over Erdogan’s refusal thus far to agree to Sweden’s NATO accession.
Last year Sweden and Turkiye signed a memorandum of understanding whereby Sweden promised action to clamp down on material support for the PKK coming from Sweden’s Kurdish community. Sweden’s new anti-terrorism law took effect June 1, and Swedish and Turkish representatives met yesterday to review progress in that area. And they’ll meet again, most likely several times. This is a mutually agreed upon process that almost all observers believe will end with Erdogan’s grudging acceptance of Sweden’s membership, maybe not in time for the Vilnius summit next month, but by the end of this year.
Sebastian
@YY_Sima Qian:
While I agree that Ukraine should get more and sooner, I disagree with your assessment that Ukraine is not effective.
It appears the strategy is to push hard but not too hard, in order to engage Russian troops and destroy them. At night, Ukrainians with night vision are slaughtering Russians and taking over positions which are consolidated the next day, and so on.
We haven’t seen more pictures or videos than that one group of Leopards and Bradleys, which tells me there are not many. Instead we see a lot of destroyed Russian artillery and armor, plus brutal artillery and missile strikes. Let’s not fall prey to desperate Russian disinfo.
Ukraine also hasn’t deployed 2/3 or even 3/4 or their assault troops so far. The 4th Mechanized (I could be) is the only elite unit so far. I read that the reason for this is to avoid overpowering a segment and to have opportunity to destroy Russian forces instead of routing them. FWIW
Sebastian
@Carlo Graziani:
No more Bonga Bonga!
Andrya
@Geminid: The Erdogan government has difficulty telling the difference between Kurdish support for terrorism and the following:
As I have mentioned before, my extended family includes Kurdish folk of Turkish ancestry. (I have no Kurdish ancestry- these are in-laws of in-laws.) All the relatives still in Turkiye are desperate to get out at almost any cost- they all say there is no future for them in Turkiye. Message to Erdogan- if you want to suppress terrorism, it helps to offer the people tempted to terrorism a decent life under your government.
Geminid
@Chetan Murthy: And why would Poland start working towards acquiring nuclear weapons because Spain did not send them substantial military assistance? If the US let them down, that would be another story. But Spain?
YY_Sima Qian
@Sebastian: I am not saying that Ukraine is ineffective in the offensive so far. I am saying that the Russians are not collapsing, yet, so it will take a lot of hard fighting and significant losses to achieve a breakthrough & potentially precipitate a Russian collapse. That is inevitable in breaching fortifications. The couple of hundreds of western MBTs & high hundreds of westerns IFVs donated do not seem to anticipate the amount of losses required to achieve breakthrough.
The pics/videos of the one group of Leopard & Bradleys/MRAPs lost/abandoned make the round because it is the one incident were a lot of western equipment is in one frame. However, there have been many videos on Twitters & Chinese social media of western gear lost to ATGMs, artillery, mines, or attach helicopters, and many videos of lost Russian equipment. It is a grind right now.
Your last point does not make sense. The routing routing enemy units offer a better chance to destroy them, force them to abandon their defensive positions & heavy equipments, & round up the confused & scattered troops that are unable offer significant resistance. Damaging them in a battle of attrition is not the most cost effect way, especially if you are on the offense attacking fortified positions. The best way, of course, to surround enemy units & force their surrender.
Chetan Murthy
@Geminid: I went a little far, but only a little. Right now, the value of NATO is that anyone gets attacked, all treat it as an attack on themselves. Once that position is violated by even one member, it starts to fall apart, and each member has to think about their future *alone*. Which will lead countries that can, to opt for nukes.
And yes, I went a little far. Maybe PL won’t do it right away. But they’ll start to think about it. B/c once “in NATO” can mean “nah brah, you fight this yourself”, they’ll have to start wondering if *anybody* will show up the next time.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
2 Leopards, 15 Bradleys, several MRAP’s. And twitted ad nauseum, including the fake Leopard on vatnick and orc feeds.
0 Fatalities.
All have been recovered, which is a big deal. A huge deal.
Ukraine now controls the area where they were, other wise, they could not be retrieved.
In offense, it’s push, push, push, until collapse. We havn’t seen the “Big Push” yet, just probing attacks.
#Slava Ukrainia, #Ruzzia is a Terrorist State.
Geminid
@Andrya: You talk as if Erdogan invented anti-Kurdish policies, but the war between the PKK and the Turkish government had gone on for 20 years when Erdogan became Prime Minister in 2003. The suppression of Kurdish identity was ongoing since the founding of the Republic. Erdogan’s government legalized teaching of the Kurdish language for the first time. He entered into peace talks with the PKK in 2012, and the ceasefire that began then might have endured had the US not destabilized the region with George Bush’s stupid Iraq war.
Erdogan’s opposition, including Kilicdaroglu’s CHP, denounced the peace talks when they began in 2012, and in last month’s presidential runoff, Kilicdaroglu vowed never to negotiate with the PKK.
The PKK- not the Kurdish people- are hated within Turkiye, and with good reason. The PKK is a murderous bunch of drug running, kidnapping, teacher murdering, city bombing criminals who have killed thousands of Turks and hundreds of Kurds, including their own members who crossed its leadership. They forcibly conscripted Kurdish youths to fight in their separatist insurgency. Turkiye has every right to require Sweden to suppress material support for the PKK from within its borders.
I’m curious. What do your relatives think of the PKK? Do they want them to continue this insurgency? Do the Kurds in Turkiye want the PKK to keep fighting? Because as long as the PKK does, the Kurds in southeast Turkiye will not know peace. If the PKK stops, or are stopped, Erdogan can continue the path of conciliation he began the first ten years he was in power. That was a real departure from the policies of every Turkish government before him.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
We all showed up after 9/11.
Yeah, we all take NATO seriously, except maybe now Hungary.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: Yes, this is my point: the norm is “we all show up”. To weaken that norm, even by bringing in Ukraine, is not good for NATO. The norm needs to be maintained, as a bright line, to not be crossed.
Jay
@Geminid:
Ergodan isn’t just going after PKK support in Sweden, he is going after Kurdish support in Sweden.
One aspect of long insurgencies, is that they , on the insurgency side, become criminal, on the State side, they become genocidal.
Jay
@Geminid:
Ergodan isn’t just going after PKK support in Sweden, he is going after Kurdish support in Sweden.
One aspect of long insurgencies, is that they , on the insurgency side, become criminal, on the State side, they become genocidal.
Jay
@Geminid:
Ergodan isn’t just going after PKK support in Sweden, he is going after Kurdish support in Sweden.
One aspect of long insurgencies, is that they , on the insurgency side, become criminal, on the State side, they become genocidal.
Jay
@Geminid:
Ergodan isn’t just going after PKK support in Sweden, he is going after Kurdish support in Sweden.
One aspect of long insurgencies, is that they , on the insurgency side, become criminal, on the State side, they become genocidal.
Jay
@Jay:
double post
Jay
@Jay:
triple post,
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
We all have, in NATO, bilateral relations. Canada is in NORAD, etc. We have a self defense relationship with the Netherlands, outside of the NATO framework.
Outside the box doesn’t break NATO.
Sebastian
@YY_Sima Qian:
my apologies, I misspoke/miswrote on the smartphone. What I was trying to say was that Ukrainians are trying to prevent Russians from withdrawing but seem to engage them in such a way that Russia a) uses artillery (which is then destroyed) or b) deploys reserves in this segment (which are also being destroyed at concentration points). The “slowness” of this phase is not necessarily because Ukrainians are running into a meat and material grinder, it’s deliberate.
I hope this makes more sense. I’ll try to find the tweet or article.
Andrya
@Geminid: I am absolutely not condoning the PKK, nor would anyone in my extended family. My point was that when you make people desperate, they do desperate things- and the responsibility for the terrorism is both on the terrorists and the oppressors. I’d say the same about Provisional IRA terrorism in Northern Ireland in the 1980s- the terrorism was absolutely wrong, but so was the pervasive discrimination against Catholics in Northern Ireland in the 1980s. The terrorism does not justify the oppression, nor vice versa.
Kurds are “not hated” in Turkiye? Most people in Louisiana in 1955 would say they did not hate African Americans, but they also would have said the “African Americans should know their place”- which definitely did not mean equal. The situation of Kurds in Turkiye is similar.
More precisely, Kurds in Turkiye today are in a similar situation to Native Americans in late 19th/early 20th century America- no longer physical genocide, but cultural genocide. Education in the Kurdish language is illegal. Writing a government document- even a holiday greeting- in Kurdish is illegal. Just as 100 years ago, even Americans who “looked kindly” on Native Americans were determined to obliterate their culture.
Here’s a quote from the Wikipedia article “Kurds in Turkey”- “By 2017, measures taken to curtail efforts to promote Kurdish culture within Turkey had included changing street names that honored Kurdish figures, removing statues of Kurdish heroes, and closing down television channels broadcasting in the Kurdish language.” I’d recommend reading the whole article- it’s appalling.
I would not agree that Erdogan has been a conciliator.
Again, all my Kurdish extended family are desperate to leave. They all say their is no future for them in Turkiye.
Geminid
@Chetan Murthy: I do not think the alliance is so fragile. If one or two countries hang back, and twenty or 21 countries help out, a member will not be fighting by itself.
As far as developing nuclear weapons goes, that is a expensive, time-consuming and problematic path. A nation that does so will incur UN sanctions, and their NATO allies might strenuously object. The US and other nations might tell them, “Article Five, Article Shmive, you are violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty you signed on to. If the Russians blow up those centrifuges, we’ll send you a sympathy card and that’s it!”
A nuclear program is a target. Were it mot for the mass of rockets and artillery pieces with range of Seoul, we’d have blown North Korea’s nuclear sites long ago.
Once that dumbass Trump gave them the excuse by walking away from the JCPOA, Iran revved up their centrifuges and now they have an estimated 6-10 bombs worth of 60% enriched uranium.. But they haven’t taken the next step of enriching enriching it to bomb grade, because they know that will mean war.
And maybe not just with Israel. The US and Iran have been very quietly negotiating over its nuclear program. The talks have taken place in Oman, Qatar and now in the US, which I guess means New York because Iran has no embassy here, just a UN delegation. Laura Rozen has been reporting on this some.
The Middle East Eye has also, and their report a couple days ago was quite interesting. They said that US special envoy Robert Malley, President Obama’s JCPOA negotiator in 2015, has offered what is not called a deal but an understanding: if Iran allows thorough inspections by the IAEA and Iran does not enrich its uranium to 90%, they will get sanctions relief allowing for substantial sales of oil with the proceeds to be be spent on food and medicine. This would be on top of the oil they already sell to countries like China.
Iran’s Supreme leader has said he agrees in principle, so this may happen. But according to this and other reports, Malley also told his counterparts that if Iran starts enriching their uranium to 90%, the Pentagon will take this matter over from the State Department. I don’t think that is an empty threat.
YY_Sima Qian
@Sebastian: I would be interested in reading the article. I have not seen this elsewhere.
Geminid
@Andrya: I think the restrictions on Kurdish culture you describe happening by 2017 mostly rolled back reforms that occurred during Erdogan’s first ten years in power. I could be wrong, but I do not think the state allowed street names honoring Kurdish figures or statues of Kurdish heroes,from the founding of the Turkish Republican until Erdogan became Prime Minister in 2002. I have read that one of the military governments erased hundreds of Kurdish village and town names, and that Erdogan restored the Kurdish names. As for Kurdish language television, I think that may have started before Erdogan, but I believe he liberalized laws against Turkish language education, and my understanding is that this still happens, but not in public institutions.
Erdogan at least started out as a conciliator, and we don’t know that he wouldn’t have continued on that path if the ceasefire he sought had not blown up in 2015. And it could be the the failed miltary coup around that time brought out Erdogan intolerant side to stay.
On the other hand, now that the PKK has essentially lost the war within Turkiye, and Erdogan has won reelection, I think there is hope for greater recognition of Kurdish rights. This may come much faster than the progress that Black people here have won since the Second World War.
I am not speaking of you here, but a lot of Westerners view Erdogan as a two dimensional, clownish cartoon thug, a Bad Man who can do no good. For all his faults, Erdogan is a lot more than that, and I think that if he is judged in the context of the Turkish Republic’s very complex political history, Erdogan does not come off so poorly. The next five years will tell a lot more about him, and a lot more about Turkiye.
Traveller
@YY_Sima Qian:
I essentially agree with Sebastian in comment 56. Ukraine can take all the time it wants or needs to soften up the Russian lines and any Russian forces currently within the borders of Ukraine.
In truth, Ukraine has until November 2024, at a minimum and can probably sustained its war effort on their own with Europe after that date if necessary. I think finding out artillery positions for counter battery fire is a perfectly sane and strategic effort.
I think I am most disappointed in the inability to use electronic warfare systems to disable Russian drones, and maybe the lack or inability of stingers to shoot these alligator helicopters down because they come upon the Ukraine forces so quickly flying virtually at ground level.
I would like to see Ukraine work on answering these questions and allies coming to the fore so that Ukraine can control at least somewhat the aerial battle space.
And, of course, they should take their own sweet time for any force deployment. They are still learning lessons, let them learn them. Best wishes, Traveller
Another Scott
@Jay: The servers at B-J Intergalactic Headquarters seem to run a CPU/disk intensive job around 2 AM ET every morning. It’s probably safest not to post a reply between 0200 and 0215 or so, if you don’t want to tickle the weirdness.
That’s my recollection, anyway. I asked WG to comment in
anotherthe “WTF?” thread upstairs where it happened this morning.Cheers,
Scott.
Andrya
@Geminid: I never said that Erdogan originated the policy of obliterating Kurdish culture. Obviously that policy long predated Erdogan, and had been worse in the past. Your argument is like saying that forcibly sending Native American children to culture-erasing boarding schools in the 1920s was Ok, because at least we weren’t physically killing them like Andrew Jackson did.
One of your arguments verges on sleight-of-hand and could be easily misunderstood: “he liberalized the law against Kurdish language education”. This might sound like he’d reversed the ban on education in Kurdish. Not so. Now people can study Kurdish the way an American teenager might study French in school: but it’s still not allowed to have instruction be in Kurdish. Obviously, having all instruction in a language not-your-first language puts the student ats a huge disadvantage. It is quite literally as though the United States severely restricted the use of Navajo.
It doesn’t matter that Erdogan is not a simplistic cartoon character. A complex oppressor is still an oppressor, and cultural genocide is still a form of genocide.
It’s not wholly clear to me how the agreement with Sweden will work out in practice, but if it takes maximalist form, which the Turkish government will push for, then any cash transfer to Turkiye that could possibly end up supporting the PKK would be banned- a cash transfer would be “guilty until proven innocent”. This would make it impossible for Kurds in Sweden to send perfectly legitimate financial support to their relatives in Turkiye.
There’s also the issue of extradition. The Turkish government is demanding that Sweden agree to extradite anyone the Turkish government says is a terrorist- but there is reason to think that the Turkish government will try to extradite people who aren’t actually terrorists, as in the case of Fethullah Gülen.
Geminid
@Andrya: The Turks can try to have people who aren’t PKK operatives extradited from Sweden, but that does not mean they will succeed. They tried to extradite Mr. Gulen from this country, and he is still living in the Poconos.
Turkish and Swedish representatives held their first meeting yesterday regarding fulfillment of their mutual agreement. Why don’t you let this process work out and not prejudge it? International and Swedish media will cover it in the meantime.
I have not looked up the Wikipedia article you suggested, but I will. I did look up current news on the subject, and found articles about a recent trial in France. Eleven Kurdish expatriots were convicted of extortion, for levying a “tax” on fellow Kurds expatriots in France. Authorities say these involuntary payments amounted to over a million francs a year from the Marseille region alone. There is no reason to think this practice is limited to France, and that is the kind of material support Turkiye is trying to stop.
I also read some contemporary reporting on Kurdish Turkish relations. I found that is true that many Kurds in Turkiye have soured on Erdogan and his AKP in recent years. A few still support the AKP, which polled well in the southeast during the first 15 years Erdogan was in power, and some of them said they were impressed by his posture towards the Kurds up until negotiations failed in 2015, and the PKK insurgency started up again. That was caused by events in Syria that stemmed from George Bush’s destabilization of the region. The failed military/Gulenist coup the year after hardened Erdogan’s attitude as well.
That situation does not have to be permanent. Erdogan and the HDP can work out a settlement restoring the progress made in Erdogan’s first decade as Prime Minister. But this will not happen as long as the Kurdish diaspora keeps funding an organization that tries to impose a settlement through violence. The majority of Turkish citizens will not stand for it, and they have a say in the matter.
The recent Assembly elections showed a sharp increase in the strength of nationalist and ultra-nationlist parties. Most of them are more hostile to Kurdish rights than is Erdogan. But even they are not explicitly anti-Kurdish; they are extremely anti-PKK though. That Mafia-like organization has poisoned the well of Turkish politics, and it is the Kurdish population that suffers the consequences.
lee
@Jay:
0 Fatalities.
This need to be highlighted as the most important point. Material can be ‘easily’ replaced. Training and experience cannot.
Those that survived that encounter probably learned some very important lessons about bunching up. They are much less likely to repeat that mistake.
Geminid
@Jay: You imply that Turkiye has become genocidal, but that does not make it so. I’m not talking about what Turkish governments and groups like the Grey Wolves did in the 1990s. The Crisis Group reports on the conflict over the last 8 years and I found no support for this contention in their reporting.
The PKK aren’t just called terrorists, they are terrorists, unless you consider bombing civilian targets in cities “freedom fighting.” The insurgency that broke out in 2015 and claimed over 1600 lives has subsided, because Turkish security forces drove most of the PKK fighters out. Would you have done differently? Some Westerners would like to romanticize the PKK, but those those guys are not a bunch of Robin Hoods, and they hurt the Kurdish cause, not help it.
As for Turkish motivations regarding the Kurds in Sweden, you can follow this matter in the Swedish press if you are really interested.
Andrya
@Geminid: Turkiye is no longer genocidal in the sense of “kill all the Kurds! And while we’re at it, kill the (vanishingly small) number of Turkish Christians”. They are still genocidal (cultural genocide is genocide) in the determination to obliterate Kurdish culture.
People who physically survive but whose culture is obliterated do not do well. Witness the high rate of alcoholism and lifestyle disease (e.g. diabetes) among Native Americans.
I agree that the PKK are terrorists (I’ve already said so) but saying “the oppressed people are terrorists!” does not justify oppression.
You cite the Turkish governments failure to extradite Fethullah Gülen from the US as evidence that things are OK. You are overlooking the fact that the Turkish government demanded Gulen’s extradition, and only US courts said there was no basis for this. It’s fair to say that if US courts had allowed the extradition, his fate would have been “nasty, brutish, and short”. Turkiye is now demanding, as a condition for Sweden entering NATO, that Sweden extradite to Turkiye anyone that Turkiye says is a terrorist. (That would include me, as I have helped Kurdish refugees from government violence emigrate to the US.)
Can you even say ONE SINGLE THING to criticize how the Turkish government treats the Kurds? So far, you have not.