(Obligatory!)
So by now everyone knows it has been a slow news day. My professional opinion at this point is: 🤷🏻♂️. We’ll get to it after the jump.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
May Ukraine’s victory and state institutions’ successful transformation be best tribute to memory of all our heroes – address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
23 June 2023 – 19:39
Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!
The summary of this busy day.
The meeting based on the results of the London Ukraine Recovery Conference is a powerful event, good gains for our country. The support from the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union is crucial. Long-term support programs for the future, for years to come. About five hundred global companies, strong companies, are interested in investing in Ukraine. Clear support for Ukraine’s EU membership: we are already perceived as an EU member politically. Separately, we are working on the mechanism for the confiscation of the assets of the terrorist state and its associated persons. I thank everyone who prepared the conference and participated in its work, it is really important.
A very meaningful meeting of the National Security and Defense Council today. I have already reported on it separately. I just held a Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff meeting. Justice is also a very important point of our discussion at the Staff meeting. Issues concerning military commission chiefs, in particular the scandal with… a figure in Odesa. This person should definitely not be in the recruitment system of the Armed Forces, it is very unpleasant, frankly immoral, and wrong that this person remained in his position despite everything. I’ve instructed Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny to remove this person from his post. And First Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Pavliuk has been instructed to organize an inspection of this entire system of military commissions. It is a pity that the Staff meeting’s attention and time now have to be spent on such issues.
Of course, the situation on the front line was discussed in great detail – all the main directions, ammunition supply, artillery… Everything that requires the Staff’s attention today. Commanders – Generals Zaluzhny, Syrsky, Tarnavsky, Moskalyov, Vice-Admiral Neizhpapa, General Malyuk, and government officials reported to the meeting. All.
I had the honor to congratulate the officers of our military educational institutions on their graduation… Six higher education institutions at once. Kharkiv National University of the Air Force, Military Institute of Tank Troops of Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute, Military Institute of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kruty Heroes Military Institute of Telecommunications and Informatization, Ukrainian Military Medical Academy and the Department of Military Training of the National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine. I thank each and every one who chooses to be a Ukrainian officer, and I wish for two absolutely fundamental things: to destroy the occupiers as much as possible and win as soon as possible.
And two more things.
Today, the Civil Service Day is celebrated in our country. The day of those people without whose integrity there is no effective state. Of course, we still have a lot to do so that the civil service in Ukraine gets closer to the models we are aiming for in our policy. But now I want to thank all our people who, under the existing conditions and with the available resources in the state, are doing everything that depends on them to make the state effective. Thank you! To each and every one! And I congratulate you on the Civil Service Day of Ukraine.
And, of course, the front. Knowing our heroes, and being grateful to them is a must.
Today, I would like to pay particular attention to the soldiers of our 35th Separate Marine Brigade. A brigade that performs extremely difficult tasks. Guys who fight exactly the way Ukrainian soldiers should fight. Senior sailor Viacheslav Imanhulov and junior lieutenant Serhiy Penov – thank you, guys, for your exemplary strength and courage in the battles in Donetsk region. That’s what our soldiers, Ukrainian soldiers, need to be. Well done!
And I ask each and every one: please honor the memory of our two paratroopers of the 35th Brigade. Especially brave, especially strong. They gave their lives for our state, for our people right now – in the battles in June, and Ukraine must remember them. Captain Ivan Kotsur… Eternal memory! Senior Lieutenant Oleksandr Kazandzhi… Eternal memory! May Ukraine’s victory in this war and the successful transformation of our state institutions into ones as strong and effective as our soldiers are – may this be the best tribute to the memory of all our heroes of different times who fought and died for Ukraine’s freedom and strength!
Glory to Ukraine!
I would just like to stipulate at the outset that the whole point of a counteoffensive is NOT to counterattack oneself!
As I write this Prigozhin, supposedly leading Wagner, has announced that he’s moving on Moscow to deal with Minister of Defense Shoigu and the senior military staff/leadership who have failed Russia, the Russian people, and Vladimir Putin with both how they’ve prosecuted the reinvasion of Ukraine and how they’ve misled Putin. Not a coup, just a long overdue violent annual performance eval. In response the Fortress Plan – the security crisis action plan for municipal defense – has been activated for Rostov on Don and for Moscow. And the FSB, the Russian successor to the Soviet KGB, has either opened a criminal case or actually charged Prigozhin for violating the laws regarding not disparaging the military during the Special Military Operation and/or calling for armed rebellion. I’ve also seen reports that the St. Petersburg Police and/or Russian Special Forces have raided Wagner’s St. Petersburg offices.
Slow news day, huh?
Let’s start with this!
To be clear – so far there is no evidence of anything happening beyond Prigozhin's voice memos and various official statements.
Wheeling the generals out, or mentioning Prigozhin on TV, is highly unusual. That suggests it's serious – whatever *it* is. But we have seen *nothing*
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 23, 2023
Other than videos and some audio released on social media THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO EVIDENCE THAT THE RUSSIAN MOD BOMBARDED A WAGNER REAR BASE OR THAT WAGNER, LED BY PRIGOZHIN IS MOVING OUT OF THE DONBAS, THROUGH RUSSIA, AND TOWARDS MOSCOW!!!!!
It's on Russian state TV now, which means it is "real" https://t.co/zMODEfVu9Z
— Brian Whitmore (@PowerVertical) June 23, 2023
Russia's state TV suddenly interrupted its broadcast tonight with a message from the Russian Ministry of Defense rebutting Yevgeny Prigozhin's claims that Russia’s military leadership killed a “huge amount” of his forces in strikes.
— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) June 23, 2023
❗️New audio statement by Prigozhin (00:03 BST), stating Wagner "crossed state borders in all areas" and is now entering Rostov, promising to "destroy anything standing in their way":
"The current situation: today, we were dealt a missile strike. After this strike, helicopters…
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 23, 2023
Here’s the full text of the translation in Dmitri’s tweet:
❗️New audio statement by Prigozhin (00:03 BST), stating Wagner “crossed state borders in all areas” and is now entering Rostov, promising to “destroy anything standing in their way”:
“The current situation: today, we were dealt a missile strike. After this strike, helicopters did their work. Then, artillery.
The orders were coming from the Head of General Staff to destroy PMC Wagner. After a meeting with the Minister of Defence Shoygu where they made this decision – to destroy the rebellious units, who are ready to defend the motherland, but not their asses.
As of now, we’ve crossed the state borders in all areas. Border guards came towards us and hugged our fighters.
Now, we’re entering Rostov. Units of the Ministry of Defence, in fact, the conscripts who were thrown to block our path, moved away.
We do not fight with children. We do not kill children. Shoygu is killing children by throwing untrained soldiers, conscripts included, into the war.
He set up 18-year-old lads against us. They’re like children and grandchildren to us. Therefore, these lads will live and return to their mothers.
We only fight with professionals. But if someone stands in our path, we will destroy EVERYTHING in our way.
We lend a hand to anyone. No need to spit in this hand. We are moving forward, going to the end.
Regarding claims regarding the arrest: this brotherhood, this justice, this honour, this conscience is what we have. But when you make these claims, you haven’t got these feelings. These feelings are destroyed. Thus, you cannot understand anything but betrayal.”
Other than what is being pushed on Russia state owned or controlled media and Prigozhin is pushing on his various social media feeds, there is STILL NO EVIDENCE THAT ANY OF THIS IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING!
Since we have no idea what is actually going on or if anything is actually going on, this analysis by Professor Sam Greene of the Russia Program at Kings College London and the Director of Democratic Resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis:
I’ll start with the most absurd: the idea that Prigozhin is attacking Putin. That story got slightly less absurd with today’s video, which seemingly protects Putin but undermines so much of what Putin has said that it still feels like an attack.
It’s still absurd, though.
/2
— Sam Greene (@samagreene) June 23, 2023
Moreover, the only direction from which Prigozhin can challenge Putin is from the nationalist right — who won’t like the idea that this war is unjustified. It just doesn’t compute.
/4
— Sam Greene (@samagreene) June 23, 2023
The most plausible story, for my money, is that Prigozhin himself is trying to undermine Shoigu — at this point, that much should be obvious — and has simply overshot with his rhetoric.
/6
— Sam Greene (@samagreene) June 23, 2023
Having written before about Russian strat-comms trying to create constructive ambiguity, I should be clear: I don’t think this is that. The ambiguity this creates isn’t constructive.
/8
— Sam Greene (@samagreene) June 23, 2023
Addendum: this makes things more dramatic, but not clearer https://t.co/egZjaaSeaE
— Sam Greene (@samagreene) June 23, 2023
If something is actually happening, here’s a great analysis by Tatiana Stanovaya, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center:
Here are a few insights into the situation surrounding Prigozhin:
1️⃣ For a long time, Prigozhin has been out of direct contact with Putin, yet he's believed he was acting in Putin's interests "by default". His significant contributions in the war enhanced his sense of…
— Tatiana Stanovaya (@Stanovaya) June 23, 2023
Here’s the full text of her tweet:
Here are a few insights into the situation surrounding Prigozhin:
1️⃣ For a long time, Prigozhin has been out of direct contact with Putin, yet he’s believed he was acting in Putin’s interests “by default”. His significant contributions in the war enhanced his sense of exclusivity and privilege.
2️⃣ The President’s administration maintained the stance that unless explicitly directed, it wasn’t feasible to openly confront Prigozhin, despite a strong inclination to do so. In fact, they had even convinced themselves of his usefulness.
3️⃣ As I’ve previously stated, the atrocities of war can drive people to the brink of sanity. Even the most loyal players, who are dependent on the Kremlin (which doesn’t imply complete manageability), can lose their sense of proportion. This is especially true when there appears to be no response to the continual attempts to escalate the situation.
4️⃣ Now that the state has actively engaged, there’s no turning back. The termination of Prigozhin and Wagner is imminent. The only possibility now is absolute obliteration, with the degree of resistance from the Wagner group being the only variable. Surovikin was dispatched to convince them to surrender. Confrontation seems totally futile.
5️⃣ The impending end of Wagner has satisfied many in power. He had become excessively anti-state, which is intolerable during a war. However, a significant number of those outside of power now lament the loss of a character like Prigozhin, who had begun to appeal due to his daring and audacity. Consequently, political repercussions are expected.
A crucial point to note is that many within the elite will now personally fault Putin for letting the situation escalate to such extremes and for his lack of a timely, adequate response when to many it was evident that Prigozhin was pushing the limits of Kremlin’s tolerance. Therefore, this entire saga is also an undercut to Putin’s standing.
Russia's MOD says Ukraine's armed forces have "taken advantage of Prigozhin's provocation to destabilize the situation" and are attacking Russia's invaders along the flanks.https://t.co/mzJYlTQekx
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 23, 2023
We are watching.
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 23, 2023
Circling back to my professional assessment of 🤷🏻♂️, six months or so ago I would have said this was legit. That this was what Prigozhin was trying to leverage Wagner taking Soledar and trying to take Bakhmut was intended to set up. Now, however, I’m not unconvinced that this isn’t a well orchestrated deception operation. That it it is a maskirovka intended to divert our attention from something that is or will be happening somewhere else. Meduza is reporting that the video footage of the attacked Wagner camp was staged. This was my take away after watching the video once. The one thing I did not see where blood covered, burned bodies and body parts.
12 minutes ago
The video footage posted by Prigozhin earlier on June 23 that reportedly shows the aftermath of a Russian rocket strike on a Wagner rear camp is almost certainly staged. Here’s why:
- Whoever is filming doesn’t run away from the explosion, as you would expect if they feared more artillery or rocket strikes, but moves toward it.
- The people speaking off camera, before they could have gotten any real details about the incident, come to the conclusion that the Ukrainian military “can’t get at us” and that only their own “allies” could have carried out the strike.
- There’s no visible crater in any of the posted footage, or any dirt that a normal explosion would gave scattered. The surrounding vegetation and trees appear essentially unharmed, which rules out a rocket that exploded in the air. Most likely, the explosion was caused by a hand grenade going off under a tent or in one of the camp’s numerous structures.
- One part of the footage shows two fires burning in a dugout, but the fresh cover of leaves in the dugout is undamaged, and there are no visible artillery casings around.
- Prigozhin reported that the strike left a large number of victims, but the footage doesn’t show any of them. One clip shows part of a human body, but the color of the dried blood on it suggests that the person died much earlier than when the alleged strike took place.
Prigozhin is in the process of being disappeared from the Russian internet. There are reports that Russian search engine Yandex has also begun filtering out results about him (like his Wikipedia page) https://t.co/637HF3aqhR
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) June 24, 2023
Something is clearly going on, but I’m sticking with Peter Pomerantsev’s take on modern Russia: Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible!
Pretty much!
The world’s first civil war fought exclusively via voice memos
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 24, 2023
There is this, though:
Bertrand: A US official did tell us that he believes that it is “real” pic.twitter.com/72YKCkEZeg
— Acyn (@Acyn) June 23, 2023
Yes, lots of Russian military equipment is being moved around. Especially in Moscow and Rostov on Don. But we’ve got no actual visual confirmation that Wagner is on the move to Moscow. So I’ll keep watching this and we can revisit tomorrow if we get confirmation of any of this existing outside of Prigozhin’s social media accounts, Russia state controlled news media, and various Russian officials official statements and social media feeds.
That’s enough for tonight.
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♬ The Girl from Ipanema by Gilberto and Getz – Mr. Mild Social Anxiety
Open thread!
Anonymous At Work
I think I speak for everyone in these chats when I ask, “What da fuqing fuqing fuq is Wagner fuqing thinking they are fuqing doing?”
And what do Ukrainians eat at the movies? Popcorn? I want to be accurate in enjoying a Russian civil war to be Putin’s butt-kisser in chief.
Fair Economist
This whole Prigozhin business is so bizarre. Psyop attempt seems most likely, but what? And it’s all so bizarre everybody is asking if it’s an op, which would defeat the purpose.
Eolirin
I suppose if the Kremlin finally decided Prigozhin was too much of a liability and he got word of it, it’d make sense to try to create a justification for a coup to save himself.
But yeah everything about this is bizarre.
TheMightyTrowel
Thank you, Adam, genuinely. Your posts are invaluable for navigating this particularly murky and uncertain news environment.
Jeffro
So…sort of a modern-day Caesar crossing the Rubicon Ural, or whatever else is in between Prigozhin and Moscow?
Me likey! Rooting for (Russian) injuries!
And thanks as always, Adam – this is just amazing.
Anonymous At Work
Now, for a serious question. What are your thoughts on the new RU strategy of counter-attacking the UA offensive? Looks like RU is burning up its equipment but in the last offensive, it seemed like RU just abandoned equipment in their retreat. So, I guess this is “Use it or lose it” and RU chose “Use it [up]”?
Steeplejack
Somehow I knew it would be overalls cat tonight! Gets me every time.
Alison Rose
I need a “this is fine” dog meme with the words written in russian. What in the hard-boiled fuck is wrong with these people? (That’s a rhetorical question.)
I liked this from Podolyak:
The NYT has been doing a live feed on the prigozhin voice memo hoedown and I’m glad they’re paying such close attention but I also hate that these vile psychotic monsters have to take up so much of our attention.
Thank you as always, Adam.
JR
@Eolirin: This seems to be the most likely? But most in the plurality sense of likelihood. Certainly purges are a common theme in Russian history.
Bill Arnold
For those who want to doom scroll until 3:00 AM, Josh Marshall’s Ukraine twitter lists may be helpful. The Ukraine Crisis list is especially lit.
2022 Ukraine Crisis (Josh Marshall twitter list)
Ukraine Military Analysts (Josh Marshall twitter list)
Gvg
Total guess. Prigozjen’s already dead. The video and voice stuff are faked. Moscow is going to put someone else into Wagner or just liquidate them in some way that they expect to get an advantage of.
Rusty
The writers go on strike, and the drunken scabs are drafting the most implausible script.
Cameron
@Gvg: That’s as good a theory as any.
Martin
I know this is not reasonably possible, but the thing that squares the circle is that either Ukraine turned or captured/killed Prigozhin and this is a Ukrainian deception op, either with a turned Prigozhin or a simulated one.
smith
And they said, big men with tears in their eyes, “Sir,…”
cain
The whole thing feels off. I think it’s one big distraction. I will rather see how troop movements look before putting any credence to any of this.
Adam L Silverman
@TheMightyTrowel: You’re most welcome. If things ever settle down I could include what you sent me a couple of weeks ago in an update.
MagdaInBlack
@Alison Rose: Scroll down the tweets til you see Defense of Ukraine tweet ” We are watching.”
Made me smile an evil smile 😉
Adam L Silverman
Just a quick note: I could be wrong here and this could all be legit. But the artisanry part of my professional experience and expertise is telling me this is a show. What bothers me is I don’t know what this is supposed to be providing cover for.
I expect that by tomorrow night or Sunday night, I’ll be able to mark my beliefs to market one way or the other.
bbleh
So it’s a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma, inside a bunch of those silly matryoshka dolls.
At this point, it seems too disjointed and widespread to be a disinformation campaign aimed at Ukraine (unclear what it would accomplish at this scale but whatever), which to me suggests that … they should just be left to fight it out, and maybe weaken themselves in the process.
(Assuming, of course, that nobody starts fussing around with the nukes.)
Adam L Silverman
@Steeplejack: You’re welcome!
Alison Rose
@Adam L Silverman: I’ll admit that part of me is hoping a defenestration is coming.
Anoniminous
Chris
@Fair Economist:
What makes the psyop thing plausible is that the Russian state and other elites are completely overrun with siloviki (right up to the top, obviously). Those people are in love with the concept of “active measures” and the like. It seems entirely plausible that some securocrat (maybe even Putin) in charge of Cunning Plans designed a Cunning Plan that was so convoluted that it didn’t end up making any goddamn sense.
Kind of like a guy spending so much time in the bubble of Fox News, OAN, 4Chan, and God knows what else that he ends up spewing conspiracy theories that even most of his fellow right-wingers can’t follow anymore.
Anonymous At Work
@Adam L Silverman: Could it be posturing by both Shoigu and Wagner working at cross-purposes? Shoigu saying, “I control the MOD and we say that you are the threat” and Wagner saying “You can say that but you can’t stop us.”?
Adam L Silverman
@Alison Rose: If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. I don’t think it merits me being thrown out the window. That’s awfully harsh.
Adam L Silverman
@Anonymous At Work: Nothing is true, everything is possible.
bbleh
@Chris: lol “d’oh! we outsmarted ourselves!”
What’s the saying, “never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.”
But even if so, it would suggest that the smoothly-oiled former-KGB-colonel-led Kremlin machine is having some serious mechanical issues
@Anonymous At Work: I still like this one best. The rivalry — which supposedly Putin encourages as a “management style” — has finally gone off the rails. Doesn’t mean that any of the threats are gonna come true, but it does suggest that what was becoming difficult has now become unmanageable (short of defenestration or something like that), and that’s not bad news.
Carlo Graziani
Prigozhin has never really exhuded political competence. For a practitioner of the subtle art of Russian conspiracy, he’s been far too loud and crude. He often acts as if Telegram discourse can change reality to a far greater extent than is true anywhere, but particularly in a society where by proud, long-standing tradition, the center wields ruthless real-world power.
So best guess is he has a Garibaldi delusion, in which he makes heroic online speeches that rally citizens to his flag as he marches on the center of power. Which is, of course, completely absurd. Wagner has personnel, but is utterly dependent on MOD for supply, transport, intelligence, secure communications. They can make a mess, but they can’t “march on Moscow” any more than they could march on Kyiv.
Prigozhin is likely fated to die naked and mewling in a Lefortovo Prison cell in the very near future. And there will be no shortage of volunteers to put the bullets in his skull.
Anoniminous
Wagner vs. Russian Firefight?
Ceci n est pas mon nym
Like this?
mvr
So sort of like the Movie version of The Big Sleep.
Martin
@Adam L Silverman: Sorry, we don’t set the rules here. Unrelatedly, we’ve moved your hotel room to the 9th floor. There’s a lovely balcony. The views are stupendous.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@Anoniminous: More fog of war: A few tweets down from that one is one that says Special Ops forces commanded by Major General Valery Flustikov have taken over the Ministry of Defense headquarters in Moscow. But (it says) nobody knows which side he’s on.
Kirk
@Adam L Silverman: The thing that strikes me is that it’s an explanation for a sudden movement of the entire unit including support.
If it’s a mask, the easiest explanation is that it’s making a major redeployment that may or may not continue into contact. The other one that works by using truth to hide is that the unit isn’t really leaving, just rearranging for operations under a hoped-for tactical surprise.
But those are both just guesses.
BC in Illinois
@Adam L Silverman:
Yeah, but in my case, patience and level-headedness is having a hard time fighting with wishing and hoping. In the meantime, how many times will I check in with partially informed, poorly-informed, and outright false sources? Too many.
I realize that it’s not time to put on Swan Lake to mark the end of Putin. But there is an alternative. Someone on Twitter keyed up a one-hour condensation of Wagner . . . (Richard) . . . Der Ring Des Niebelungen by the [Dutch] Radio Philharmonic Orchestra. That’s what I have on in the background.
It will do fine, until the time comes for the Putindämmerung.
Adam L Silverman
@Anoniminous:
Adam L Silverman
@Anoniminous:
dmsilev
Given how …unreliable everyone involved is in terms of telling the truth, seems like all we can really do is watch and wait and hope that some actual information with some actual reliability comes soon. Maybe in a day or three?
Martin
Wikipedia has a page up.
While not necessarily accurate, it does bend toward accuracy, and is a relatively static summary of events.
Origuy
So if Prigozhen withdrew Wagner forces from Ukraine and brought them to Rostov-on-Don, so what? It’s still 1100km to Moscow. It’s not like Caesar crossing the Rubicon. This could be part of some complicated diversion, or maybe Prigozhen knows that Putin has one foot in the grave and he’s prepping for the inevitable power struggle. I guess we’ll know when Russian TV starts showing Swan Lake. No matter who comes out on top, the intervening turmoil will help Ukraine.
I read an interesting article in the Moscow Times about why Putin’s support is so strong in the areas east of Ukraine. It’s called the “red belt” because support for Communism is still high and the folks there like their strongmen. But if Pregozhin looks to be the new strong man, they could throw their support behind him.
Adam L Silverman
The Pale Scot
Wagner has lost access to recruiting convicts a while ago, now the MoD is pushing musicians to sight new contracts with regular AFR. He’s out of running room and he knows it.
Anoniminous
@Ceci n est pas mon nym:
Depends on if this is a rebellion, mutiny, putsch, coup de e’tat, … or ?????
lee
Just got a ping that helicopters have been reported and videoed in the Rostov region and videos of
‘Firefights between the Russian National Guard “Rosgvardia” and Wagner mercs reported in the Rostov Region, Russia’
Nothing confirmed as true or if the video is verified.
Alison Rose
@Adam L Silverman: WE HAVE HIGH STANDARDS HERE AT BALLOON JUICE, SIR.
Adam L Silverman
@Martin: Every time I’ve gone to West Point to give a talk I stay at the Thayer. And every time they give me murder central for a room.
Alison Rose
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: perf
Anoniminous
@Adam L Silverman:
Thus the question mark.
Adam L Silverman
@dmsilev: Nothing is true, everything is possible.
Anoniminous
Here’s a question: Where is Putin? Why hasn’t he weighed in?
BeautifulPlumage
@Osinttechnical they’re watching the M4 road headed north out of Rostov which appears to be closed with reports of roadblocks.
dmsilev
@Adam L Silverman: I’m a trained quantum mechanic. In my world, many things are both true and false at the same time.
Somehow, running the Schrödinger’s Cat experiment with either a psychopathic mercenary boss or a psychopathic nation-state dictator doesn’t seem like a happy fun thing to do.
Carlo Graziani
@Origuy: FWIW, the significance of Rostov is that it’s the principal logistical depot for Russian operations in the Southern theatres. So in theory, control of Rostov comes with a vast pile of weapons, ammo, and other green-painted supplies, and of a major railhead.
The idea that Wagner could take over Rostov—and hold it—seems about as likely as the January 6 rioters taking over the US Government. As in, really, guys, rub a fucking lamp, why don’t you. But perhaps that’s the “thinking” here.
different-church-lady
@dmsilev:
I have a question: my quantum is making a strange “tic-tic-tic” noise on humid days. I’ve tried both replacing the belts and not replacing the belts, but neither seems to help. Got any ideas?
Carlo Graziani
@dmsilev: I’d love to see the Hilbert-space representation of that entangled state…
Ishiyama
Backbiting between generals is an Imperial tradition – so is executing the ones who are too successful.
Timill
@Anoniminous: He’s visiting the Titanic…
Adam L Silverman
@Anoniminous: They had canned video of him addressing some students.
Chris
@dmsilev:
The East India Company of the new millennium, versus the Francoist Spain of the new millennium.
Pick your poison!
Anoniminous
Russian Attack Helicopters flying over Rostov
Don’t usually see aviation flying over a city at dawn just because Why Not?
dmsilev
@different-church-lady: You have an uncorrected phase shift in your quantum. You need to replace one belt with an imaginary one.
Very complicated, very expensive.
Omnes Omnibus
Any Russian stations playing Swan Lake?
dmsilev
@Anoniminous: Well, because of time zones and national TV, USAF flybys during the Rose Parade are usually pretty early. Maybe it’s like that?
Carlo Graziani
@dmsilev: That’s what the Copenhagen dealers always claim. The last thing they want is for people to branch off into a Universe where the tick-tock sound goes away by itself.
different-church-lady
@dmsilev: Thanks! I’ll do the repair and not do the repair.
Betty Cracker
Nominated for a tagline!
dmsilev
@different-church-lady: Yes, that should do the trick.
Omnes Omnibus
@dmsilev: Or not.
Anoniminous
@Carlo Graziani:
With this surprise attack it is quite possible Wagner could take and hold Rostov for a time. That’s what a coup de main is all about. How long a time depends on how many troops are in and around the city and how many of those troops would be willing to die to take it from them.
different-church-lady
@dmsilev:
Or not do the trick. It hard to say at first.
oldster
Even if this is a cunning ruzzian psy-op, it still makes them look bad. Top generals recording videos calling for mercenary soldiers to remain loyal; mayors of large towns calling for residents to remain calm. This is not the behavior of a nation-state in good health.
A toast to their continued ill health!
dmsilev
@Carlo Graziani: Multiverse always seemed like a cop out to me, but admittedly I take a utilitarian view and try to ignore the more philosophical debates.
Spanky
@dmsilev: Putin’s in the box. Until he comes out we don’t know whether he’s alive or dead.
And he doesn’t seem inclined to stick his head out.
dunnofersure
@Adam L Silverman: Cover for blowing the nuke plant?
Sure, everyone will know the ruskies did it. But which ones? The official Russia MoD ruskies, or the “turned renegade” Wagner ruskies who are now supposed to be in a coup attacking Russia and the official ruskies?
Wombat Probability Cloud
@Anoniminous: There was an article earlier today or late last night (referenced by Kos, maybe) about the overlapping timelines of at least three Putin clones going about business. My first thought was–damn–he’s making his location really fuzzy, so this must be serious. I can excavate the ref if it’s important.
Anoniminous
@dmsilev:
I can’t think of any reason for those birds to be in the air except some kind of military patrol.
dmsilev
@Anoniminous: But what does taking Rostov get him in the long run? No supplies, no real base of support, etc. Assuming for the sake of argument that this is all actually happening, there’d have to be a significant next step after that. Onwards to Moscow, or a palace coup, or something. Or he just gets besieged and eventually crushed.
Anoniminous
@Omnes Omnibus:
LOL
Wombat Probability Cloud
@Omnes Omnibus: Yep, that’s the question. Don’t know how to access Channel One, though.
Geminid
An historical analgy to Prigozhin’s mutiny might be the Streltzy Uprising of 1698. Peter the Great ruthlessly suppressed it, but of course Putin is no Peter the Great.
It seems to me that Prigozhin has to get help from other military and security forces if he’s to topple the Defence Minister, or even survive.
Fair Economist
@Chris: Believing their own bullshit, yes. As plausible an explanation as any.
Anoniminous
@Wombat Probability Cloud:
Don’t bother on my account. Either he’s dead or he’ll show up on TV in the next couple of hours
Adam L Silverman
@Anoniminous: It’s a CAP – Combat Air Patrol.
Spanky
Putin is dead, the Kremlin is trying to suppress it, Prigozhin got wind of it and is trying to position himself for when the truth finally gets out.
Hey, making up bizarre scenarios that can still actually be true is fun!
Sebastian
It appears less and less like a PsyOp but more and more like a real thing. State of emergency in Moscow. Roadblocks.
Carlo Graziani
@dmsilev: For what it’s worth, and dropping the comedy for a sec (but I liked the belt!) I also, like all physicists, used the quantum algorithm because it is so unreasonably succesful at predicting pretty much everything. But in my old age, I am becoming more sympathetic to Einstein (and Penrose) in the position that “prediction is different from explanation”. And the latter is really what is still missing from modern physics, almost a century after Schrodinger, Heisenberg, Dirac, Bohr, and Pauli shook up the entire field.
If Penrose is correct, the unsettled business of the Einstein-Bohr debates may be the reason that the enduring puzzle of putting Relativity and Quantum physics on speaking terms with each other still cannot be resolved. I think he’s on to something.
Adam L Silverman
@dmsilev: They’re not going to take Rostov. Even if this convoy is Wagner, they don’t have enough trucks, let alone personnel to do much of anything. And Rosgvardia is just letting them pass.
dunnofersure
@dunnofersure: If Prigozhin does nothing Putin doesn’t want, and if plausible deniability for Russia is what Putin wants, Prigozhin “attacking” Russia can create it.
Anoniminous
@dmsilev: As Carlo Graziani wrote up top, Rostov is a logistic center so there’s some stuff there. How much?
¯\_ (ツ)_/¯
I have no idea what Dipshit thinks he is doing. The only things I can think of that would make sense is if (a) Putin is dead and this is the opening move in a post-Putin struggle for power or (b) the Russian MoD and Army were planning to capture and kill him.
But I’m just WAG’ing now
Sebastian
More from ChrisO on Wagner contacting former members:
Carlo Graziani
@Adam L Silverman: Word.
Martin
@Adam L Silverman: They’re in on it!
Martin
@Anoniminous: It’s 5AM in Moscow. You don’t give a statement when nobody is awake to hear it.
Carlo Graziani
I wonder where Kadyrov is, and what he’s doing.
Bill Arnold
@Rusty:
The Writers Guild of America is … American. You might be right about Reality’s scriptwriters being drunk, though. Or at least intoxicated on something potent.
I hesitate to ask dmsilev for opinions about “history entanglement”, though.
Carlo Graziani
@Anoniminous: (c) Dipshit has a tenuous grip on reality, which is about to crash down on him like the proverbial ton of bricks.
Anoniminous
@Adam L Silverman:
Yup
And, interestingly, this is supposedly showing Wagner troops outside the Southern Military District Headquarters in Rostov. So now the question is: for which side are they providing air cover?
Bet the people at NSA and other SIGINT agencies are calling in people and running around crazy right about now. :-)
different-church-lady
@Anoniminous: My money’s on B.
oldster
I only know what I read in the papers, but Alexander Vindman says he recognizes the MOD building in Rostov, and there are several armored vehicles outside it.
https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1672426090869006337
Adam L Silverman
Something is going on:
dmsilev
@Bill Arnold: I’ll stick to current events.
TheMightyTrowel
@Bill Arnold: how about the archaeologist version of it? There is no such thing as the past, just myriad partial pasts constructed in the present.
Adam L Silverman
@oldster: It’s the Interior ministry.
Adam L Silverman
@Carlo Graziani: 1) Chechnya. 2) Look up the rule of goats.
Martin
@dmsilev: If you take Rostov, and choke off Russias ability to hold off a Ukrainian push, that’s a very big bargaining chip in the immediate term.
With what forces does Russia push you out? And how long can Putin just wait you out with Ukraine all locked and loaded and ready to push?
That’s a lot of leverage. And it doesn’t seem like anyone below the oligarch level is particularly loyal to Putin, so who knows how fluid the recruiting situation for any given warlord. Maybe Prigozhin gets himself his own oblast and territorial force. I kind of assume that it’s impossible to plot the average Russian’s level of cynicism in their leaders on the same chart as the average Americans level of cynicism on our leaders.
Mallard Filmore
The YouTube channel “ATP Geopolitics” put out a vid 3 hours ago. He speculates that the reason Prigozhin took Rostov is: Leverage. As long as he holds Rostov, the war supplies for at least half the RU armed forces is under his control.
link: https://youtu.be/dHNpxPyXHwU
Frankensteinbeck
I would go with this being a psyop – not necessarily a competent one – except for one thing: Prigozhin does not get out of this with his life. You do not say you’re rebelling against Putin and have Russian television confirm it and then get to go “Ha ha, it was a trick!” Putin is way too damn protective of his image for that.
Carlo Graziani
@Martin: Come on, how is Wagner going to deploy an armed assault force to Rostov? Tour buses?
Bill Arnold
@dmsilev:
Oh I was mainly (riffing on the jokes) referring to these lines of theory:
Entangled Histories vs. the Two-State-Vector Formalism – Towards a Better Understanding of Quantum Temporal Correlations (2018)
Entangled Histories (Jordan Cotler and Frank Wilczek, 2016)
Ishiyama
Prigozhin is clearly an opportunist, but is he an idiot, or does he have something on his side that will make things work out for him? How ready are the Russian foot soldiers for a general rebellion, like in 1917?
different-church-lady
@Mallard Filmore:
Is it possible Dipshit actually does know what he’s doing?
Adam L Silverman
@Frankensteinbeck: Actually he’s made it clear he’s rebelling for Putin, not against him.
Kelly
A lot of civilians just hanging around watching the show in the videos out of Rostov.
Martin
I guess he’s not over it yet.
Sebastian
@Adam L Silverman:
I am not an expert but those look like mobniks, not Wagner. Going to walk out on a limb here but if we remember Belgorod and how bad these kinds of troops reacted to battle-experienced troops …we might be in for a surprise.
I for one am rooting for injuries and a total collapse of Russian logistics to and in Ukraine.
KrackenJack
My guess is that Prigozhen is already in custody and / or dead. This operation is designed to discredit him and his supporters in advance of the show trial. The MOD gets to take over the PMC and anyone who even appears reluctant can be executed on the spot. If that’s the case, it will be wrapped up quickly without any ranting videos.
It may also be a distraction, but we won’t know about that for a while.
Sebastian
@Carlo Graziani:
Allegedly trucks, if some videos are to be believed.
zhena gogolia
Whoa, lots of comments tonight. Where do I start.
Adam L Silverman
@Sebastian: I’m seeing reporting that the bubbas in full rattle include guys wearing Rosgvardia uniforms and patches and that RU National Guard/Military trucks are on site. So it is very unclear of who is doing what.
Martin
@Adam L Silverman: So taking Rostov is his way to establish himself as the more competent Minister then. ‘Hey Vlad, got our stuff, should I drive it to Kyiv?’
Frankensteinbeck
@Adam L Silverman:
If Putin is not out there saying “Sure, come on home and deal with these incompetents!” then he is rebelling against Putin, everyone will see it as rebelling against Putin, and Prigozhin has defied Putin’s authority, which is the capitol crime here. Hell, in cynical Russia especially absolutely no one is going to buy the ‘If only the Tsar knew!’ defense.
Anoniminous
Lots of videos claiming Wagner troops are in Rostov.
Alison Rose
@zhena gogolia: One suggestion.
dunnofersure
If this ruzzian vs ruzzian thing is for realz, Wouldn’t it be awesome if the Russian missile attack on Wagner that triggered Prigozhin to blow up and vow revenge on the MoD russia wasn’t actually russian but ukrainian?
What exactly have those wily Ukrainians been up to? They’ve been awfully quiet lately….too quiet, lol.
Anoniminous
Reports of fighting in Voronezh region
Bill Arnold
@Mallard Filmore:
One of the more interesting theories.
Plenty of discussion about Rostov-as-supply-hub in these threads over the past 16 months
Shalimar
I have a friend in Dnipro who said they had attacks from shahids around 90 minutes ago
The Pale Scot
Uber Vatnick Michael Tracey’s reality is having a time
So you’re saying everything you’ve been saying for 2 yrs is BS?
Naked Cap’s tankies will be interesting tomorrow
different-church-lady
Well, I’ll be damned — it’s like Fort Ticonderoga again.
dunnofersure
@zhena gogolia: Just make some shit up and sling it in here. Everyone else is doing it.
Alison Rose
@dunnofersure:
including you, apparently
Martin
@Anoniminous: Well, lots of videos showing troops in Rostov. At the moment I’m open to the idea that they are Australian.
Actually, that’d be the funniest twist in all of this. Australia, long biding their time, launches a surprise invasion of Russia via the Black Sea under the cover of a Russian internal leadership dispute.
bbleh
Ok, so the only way it makes sense is, Putin is dead and they’re fighting over who takes over.
Or, the only way it makes sense is if Prigozhin is dead and … (I’m not entirely sure).
Or, Prigozhin is revolting against Putin, even though he doesn’t have a chance.
Or, Prigozhin is revolting FOR Putin, because … (I’m not entirely sure).
Here’s one I haven’t seen yet, and one I have, both of which could be true:
Putin has finally decided Prigozhin is more of a liability than an asset and he’s decided to “replace” him, and Prigozhin got wind of it and is lashing out in desperation, — and/or —
Prigozhin has lost it and he’s behaving irrationally.
Whatever, I still hold to the thesis far above that this isn’t bad news for Ukraine. (Although of course it is for Joe Biden, for reasons to be explained at length in an article Maggie Haberman is furiously typing up even now.
Another Scott
NEXTA has tweets up with very recent time stamps. Something indeed seems to be happening.
FWIW.
I guess we’ll know more in a few days. Or maybe not. Hard to say.
Thanks Adam, and everyone.
Cheers,
Scott.
Anoniminous
Rob Lee tweeted: “According to a Russian channel, local media in Rostov are reporting that Wagner fighters have cordoned off the Southern Military District HQ, the police office, FSB office, and city administration building.“
different-church-lady
@bbleh:
That’s the one.
TheMightyTrowel
@Martin: Russia is currently suing Australia because our govt has withdrawn permits for them to build an embassy near parliament house on nat sec grounds so yours isn’t the least plausible idea
Ken
This you. There are plenty of yous out there in other branches who think it’s the most logical explanation.
Martin
@Anoniminous: Alexander Vindman concurs that they appear to be Wagner troops, not local security taking control of the SMD HQ.
I’m going to take him as the most reliable authority on this we have at the moment.
Spanky
@Martin: “Wily Australians” is not a phrase often heard.
Adam L Silverman
Captain C
@Adam L Silverman: Bravely defending the Tsar against the scheming, thieving, incompetent boyars who have been causing a disaster in his name.
different-church-lady
Do we have a spare refresh button? I’m gonna wear this one out.
dunnofersure
@Alison Rose: Absolutely. Understand, in an environment where nobody knows nuthin for certain, some shit here contains corns of real military experience and intelligent guesswork and some is pure shit. I know what mine is made of, what do you got?
Adam L Silverman
@Martin: Yep, it’s the logistical hub for the RU forces in Donbas. But we’re back to my initial skepticism, it shouldn’t have been this easy to take the Southern Military District.
Martin
@TheMightyTrowel: Not least plausible idea is the bar I have set for myself, and if I may brag a bit: More often than not I clear it.
Bill Arnold
@Anoniminous:
If Wagner soldiers with recent considerable experience in urban combat (some of them at least) have taken over an urban center or even part of it, they will be difficult to attack.
Martin
@dunnofersure: Adam seems to think that Hollywood launched that attack.
Russians do have that kind of ‘I’m going to look in the mirror and draw a P on my cheek’ energy.
Martin
@Spanky: That’s why it works. How wily are they? So wily nobody realizes they’re wily.
Australia *is* the multiverse.
dunnofersure
@Martin: Hmm. Isn’t there a backwards P in the russian alphabet?
Calouste
@Adam L Silverman: Wagner might not as much have taken Rostov, as Rostov might have switched sides. That’s the way things go sometimes in a civil war.
Martin
@Adam L Silverman: Isn’t there a point where a country is so ground down that someone with a fancy hat walks in and says ‘I’m in charge’ and everyone just sighs, slumps their shoulders and says, ‘sure, whatever’.
I feel like Russia is at that point. I don’t think anyone fucking cares. What answer keeps me alive to see tomorrow.
Captain C
@Adam L Silverman: How likely is it that disgruntled Rosgvardia or similar types would defect to Wagner?
Another Scott
Hey, they might know somebody!!
Cheers,
Scott.
different-church-lady
@Calouste: Right now it’s looking like Rostov doesn’t give a shit.
Martin
@dunnofersure: Maybe in your universe, but not this one.
rikyrah
Thank you, Adam.
Needed this update from you.
Russian Civil War was not on my bingo card.
different-church-lady
@rikyrah:
Wasn’t on Putin’s either.
Eolirin
@bbleh: I said that at #3! :P
Alison Rose
@dunnofersure: Well, I’m not offering any logistical or quantitative analysis, so I don’t think I need to offer up credentials or whatever. And everyone here is making it clear their guesses or ponderings are just that. We have many people on these threads, including Adam, who have a wealth of applicable knowledge, and most of us appreciate their takes, even if they ARE mostly guesses and ponderings.
Anoniminous
Deutsche Welle reporting “Russian authorities have called for the arrest of Wagner group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin amid claims of mutiny. ”
The plot. She thickens.
Adam L Silverman
@Captain C: Possible. How probable I do not know.
Carlo Graziani
@Martin:
They aimed at Gallipoli again, but missed.
tokyokie
@Spanky:
And that’s the way those Wily Australians like it.
Martin
@different-church-lady: I always thought that’s how coups usually play out. Adam is of course more than welcome to correct me on this, but you often get a coup when the opposition leader recognizes that people have no real loyalty to the guy up top, and they aren’t going to stick their neck out for them. If you show up you don’t even need to promise them bread and circuses, and you don’t need to ask for loyalty, you just ask them to stay out of your way – go home, kiss your wife and kids, and you’ll be fine.
I didn’t think Russia has a concept of being loyal to some higher ideal like freedom or democracy. They’re loyal to Russia. That’s not the same thing as being loyal to Putin or his government or what he represents. So long as the new guy is Russian, you stay out of it.
Origuy
Nope. Maybe you are thinking of the backwards R, Я. It makes the Ya sound. The P sound is the letter п. The letter that looks like P to us is the R sound.
zhena gogolia
@Anoniminous: I thought that was reported a long time ago I mean a long time ago today
OB-118
@Carlo Graziani: Wasn’t there a recent uptick in tourists visiting Gallipoli who kept saying “g’day mate”?
dunnofersure
@Martin: Ah but it looks like it could.
Hollywood: Hey Vova, we just noticed the P on your cheek is backwards.
Vova: Oh. Uh. That. Nyet, nyet! This is not backward P. We have many letters in Russia that look backward. Many letters. This is cyrillic P. Yes, cyrillic P, only looks backward.
Hollywood: Omg, of course! Duh! You poor man! Anyhoo, time to push a fresh round of stories…
Carlo Graziani
@Martin: In my personal view, regarding Russia as the sort of place where mass uprisings can change a government’s direction—let alone its constitution—is a fallacy of generalization. Russia changes its governments by violence, but the nearly-universal rule is that putsches happen from inside, not outside the Kremlin. The exceptions that prove the rule are the two “calamities” that bookend the history of the USSR: the Russian “Revolution” (an outside putsch against the Kerensky government by the Bolshevik clique) and the Yeltsin putsch against Gorbachev (Russia asserting its independence from the USSR).
To believe that the Wagner thing is more than a bit of low comedy is to believe that internal circumstances in Russia have suddenly shifted tectonically so as to undermine the power and control of the Putinist state. I make the odds at least 100:1 against.
Anoniminous
@zhena gogolia:
I know they wanted to arrest him. I didn’t know they wanted to arrest him specifically for mutiny.
Mallard Filmore
@Adam L Silverman: Wow! It’s like Russian soldiers are as flighty as the Iraqi soldiers running from ISIS.
Chris
@Carlo Graziani:
And notably, even that second one started off as an internal putsch – it was the plot against Gorbachev by hard liners in the Army, KGB, and CPSU that gave Yeltsin & co the opening to do their thing.
Chetan Murthy
this is interesting: https://nitter.net/officejjsmart/status/1672420961138757639#m
Origuy
Some strange weather in Moscow today. Don’t believe what you see out the window.
Mallard Filmore
@Martin:
(from a Google search) “Woody Allen once said that 80 percent of success in life is just showing up.”
Sebastian
@Adam L Silverman:
Wait, what?
Anoniminous
@Chetan Murthy: It just keeping getting weirder
Fair Economist
Well, with multiple videos coming out now showing Wagner taking control of Rostov military assets I have to say, whatever the motivations, this is for real. It is no longer clear that Prigozhin will lose. In particular almost all Russia’s ground military is stuck in Ukraine with Wagner now on their supply lines, and so Putin and the traditional military no longer have absolute authority. There’s no way they allowed this as theatre, because belief in control is central to any authoritarian regime. Once the belief starts to erode anything can happen. Not that the authoritarians always lose; far from it; but they don’t always win. There is absolutely no way Putin or the traditional military wanted anything like this to happen.
piratedan
seeing tweets and toots indicating that there is fighting involving Wagner forces in/around Voronevh…
dunnofersure
@Alison Rose:
Badges? We ain’t got no badges. We don’t need no badges! We don’t have to show no stinkin’ badges!
Adam L Silverman
@piratedan:
Chris
@Fair Economist:
Yeah, that’s increasingly the way it looks to me too. I suppose it’s possible that Putin empowered Pierogi to clean house on his behalf and remake the government with himself as second in command, as some people seem to think. But whether it’s that or just Pierogi acting entirely alone, it doesn’t seem like he’s going anywhere but up.
Eolirin
@Adam L Silverman: This is so surreal feeling. I know we just have to wait to really find out what’s going on, but wtf.
Maxim
@Adam L Silverman: Say what now?
Jinchi
@Martin:
This whole scenario doesn’t make sense to me. It has the same level of rationality as the nut who planned to show up at the White House, kill the president and take over the country. How is that supposed to work?
Where is Prigozhin’s political power base? Why would any other general follow his lead? The Wagner troops are mercenaries, not idealogues. I don’t see them blindly following him. You can’t lead a coup if nobody is following.
Chetan Murthy
https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1672462157127008262
Subsole
@Anonymous At Work:
Not Ukrainian, but I am told sunflower seeds are THE snack food over there.
@dmsilev: How confident are we the Russian Army is up to that? Not sarcasm, I genuinely have doubts.
All speculation and laughter aside (and looking past the deep, deep schadenfreude that comes of watching Conservatism’s Ideal Society and Model for Tomorrow’s America trip on its boots and impale itself on its own dick) I have a sneaking suspicion I am not going to enjoy the actual outcomes of a Russian civil war very much at all.
piratedan
@Adam L Silverman: maybe this is really a civil war…. or at least an attempted coup. I can only speculate on what the UA forces and political and intelligence communities are hearing.
Anoniminous
WTH? Prigozhin is in Rostov with General Sergey Kuzovlev, commander of the Southern Military District.
Anybody know what they are saying?
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy: same vid, now with text from rob lee: https://nitter.net/RALee85/status/1672463016586014720#m
Subsole
@bbleh: No no, Maga Habs is Preznit Biff’s steno.
You’re thinking Moron Dowd.
piratedan
@Jinchi: granted, but success has a momentum of it’s own. RU forces have been marginal and thrown away casually. If the mercs can come in and clean house with limited resistance and then control their area and continue to make gains…. how much does that change things? Pragmatism is all well and good until the events at hand are on YOUR doorstep.
Fair Economist
@Jinchi: Two points: First, most coup leaders are wrong and lose, but they still really tried.
Second, he can’t lose if nobody fights against him. And it’s unclear how much the troops will support the regime. “Stop Prigozhin so we can send you to die in Ukraine” is not a convincing offer.
My money would still be on him losing. But I’m starting to see why he would try.
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy:
https://nitter.net/JuliaDavisNews/status/1672465115998715906#m
Julia Davis
@JuliaDavisNews
29s
A brief summary: Prigozhin says they are “saving Russia” and are not leaving until their demands about certain military decisions are met. Prigozhin complains about his guys being mindlessly sent to die.
Steeplejack
Anoniminous
@Chetan Murthy:
That’s how it started in the Russian Army in 1916.
Adam L Silverman
@Maxim: Hotel rooms that are right next to the stairs and farthest from the elevators are called murder central. They are statistically overrepresented in homicides at hotels and motels because the stairs give the murderer easy access and by being farthest from the elevators the rooms are the most isolated, which furthers their appeal to homicide hobbyists.
Every time I’ve stayed at the Thayer, I’ve been in the room farthest from the elevators and closest to the stairs. Otherwise known as murder central.
Chris
@Fair Economist:
This part especially:
If the vast majority of Russian soldiers are in Ukraine and Wagner is now sitting on top of their supply line, the choices become very stark. Pri might have the power to tell the government, okay, you’ve got two choices now.
Number one, you come at me with whatever it takes, and probably you win in the end. But in order to do that, you’re going to have to recall a bunch of troops from Ukraine. The front there is already weak, if you weaken it much more it might collapse completely, and then, the humiliating defeat you’ve been fearing for the last year and a half will be complete. And just how long do you think you’ll survive after that, even if you have gotten rid of me?
Or number two, you give me what I want, and we keep at this Ukraine thing together. What do I want, you ask? Huh, interesting question. Maybe it’s Gerasimov’s head. Maybe it’s Shoigu’s. Maybe it’s even Putin’s. Make me the new czar, so I can really whip things into shape and we’ll have the stronger government we need to face Ukraine and the West.
Sebastian
@Adam L Silverman:
Right. I meant Rosgardia but couldn’t recall the name. The uniforms look awfully like standard-issue Russian infantry/Rosgardia and they all wear exactly the same uniforms, backpacks, etc.
Wagner is usually more individualized and their uniforms tend to be more brownish camo. But what do I know? It could be a unit that defected over to Prigozhin.
CaseyL
I’m sure Western intel assets are working overtime, but it seems to me that unless they have managed to penetrate Wagner, they’re not going to be able to shed much light on an increasingly bizarre situation.
Has anyone seen any actual fighting yet? Not fly-bys, not vehicles parked around buildings, not soldiers standing around, but actual fighting?
Chetan Murthy
Damn, this thing seems to be fizzling. Prigo wants Shoigu and Gerasimov, but he’s not ready to put a spanner into the works of fighting Ukraine. And it doesn’t look (yet) like he’s ready to “come at the king”. Seems like he doesn’t have what it takes.
I’m sure the FSB is readying his polonium tea as we sit here.
Kent
I lived through several coup attempts in Central America (Guatemala) in the 1980s.
Not all coup attempts are actually attempts to actually overthrow the government. Sometimes they are simply done for leverage. The more typical thing that happened in Guatemala is that the civilian government would make some major decision that offended or curtailed the armed forces in some way. “rebel” military forces would rise up under some younger officers and start marching on the capital with some battalions of troops in trucks. The presumptively still loyal senior generals would walk across the plaza to the presidential palace and say “we’d really like to help you but we need X, Y, and Z first. The president having no choice and the prospect of troops arriving in the capital in a few hours would agree to X, Y, and Z. An hour later the coup would mysteriously evaporate and everyone would go back to business.
That doesn’t mean I have the slightest idea what is happening in Russia. But it seems likely to me that what we are seeing is some attempt to leverage a policy change of some sort, not an attempt to completely overthrow the government. The success in them pulling it off, of course, depends on whether they think they can go back to the way things were before without all being rounded up and gulaged or executed. I don’t know enough about Russia to even guess about that. But avoiding being sent to the gulag or tossed out a window depends on how deep their support within the government goes.
Captain C
@different-church-lady: I think I was house-sitting for a cousin the day the 1993 kerfuffle between Yeltsin and the Duma happened, and I watched the parliament building get shelled live on CNN. Meanwhile, the rest of the Muscovites were either going about their business and ignoring the whole thing, or watching it as the day’s excitement.
Sebastian
Chuck Pfarrer is speaking in one of the coup Twitter Spaces if anyone wants to listen in.
https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1nAKErAZrnkGL?s=20
Alison Rose
@Steeplejack: Oooh wait, make it a four-way cage match! Musk, Zuck, Prig, and Shoigu.
Steeplejack
Twitter covering the nuances.
dunnofersure
@Anoniminous: Vindman says the southern military district in Rostov controls “strategic assets”, which Prigozhin now controls. I guess that means nukes. Shit got real fast.
Sebastian
@Omnes Omnibus:
Not yet but the recent double appearance of Putun and one of his doubles makes one wonder if it wasn’t two doubles.
Origuy
My Russian-American friend posts political items on Facebook from time to time; he must have very good sources in Russia. He was talking about Putin’s connection to Trump before almost anyone else. Anyway, he says that Putin is out and Nikolai Patrushev has taken over.
Just throwing that out there. My friend isn’t always right and he’s often pessimistic, but then he’s Russian.
Frankensteinbeck
@Chetan Murthy:
But he has. Nobody puts Putin in a corner. Putin is a strongman. He is a dictator. You can declare you’re doing it because you love him all you like, but if you take your military force off script and confront the Russian army with it, you are demonstrating that Putin is not in control. If anyone does that and survives, much less succeeds, Putin’s throne rests on nothing. Prog just challenged Vlad to a duel, whether he meant to or not.
Steeplejack
eversor
@dunnofersure:
It’s a supply and logistics hub.
Chris
@Origuy:
::googles Patrushev::
Well, that sounds like the opposite of an improvement. But then I can’t imagine any successor to Putin that wouldn’t be, at the very least, as bad as he is.
Chetan Murthy
@Frankensteinbeck: Indeed, that’s what I mean: If Prigo understood what he was doing, wouldn’t he be trying to get these SMD generals onside, to join him? Instead, he seems to be reassuring them that he doesn’t mean to get in the way of the war, he just wants Shoigu & Gerasimov, and hey presto! he’ll be back on the line, murdering Ukrainians.
Chris
@Frankensteinbeck:
The fact that Putin appears to have been out to lunch for all this time can’t be helping either. He’s not exactly projecting the image of a man in charge, which is kind of important to survive moments like this.
Traveller
https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1672461810908184577
Well, dear old Uncle Prigozhin seems mighty, mighty comfortable there in the MOD Rostov on Don.
More in the morning as the seasoned journalists like to say….War? Who would have thunk this?!?Outright odd outcomes are often the rule in war….Strange are the ways of the Gods of War. Best Wishes, Traveller
Sister Golden Bear
@Martin: We all know that one of the main elements of attack is the element of surprise. And what could more surprising than the First Battalion Transvestite Brigade, Airbourne Wing parachuting in, with fantastic guns, and fantastic make-up.
Chris
@Sister Golden Bear:
And fear.
And ruthless efficiency.
And an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope.
… I’ll come in again.
Alison Rose
@Sister Golden Bear: One of my fave bits from that show.
Feathers
Must confess it’s kind of surreal to get through my Mission Impossible movie marathon to check Twitter and find out that an army of Russian mercenaries has gone rogue. Some questions about who is in control of the local nukes. How nuts is US intelligence going right now?
I am going to try to get some sleep, but this sort of thing can keep me up all night. Already up late with the movies. Box set is due back at the library tomorrow.
Sebastian
Sebastian
Fair Economist
@Chris:
That does look like his plan. Except that it’s starting to look like it only half worked. He got Rostov, but not Voronezh. Still, he’s in a decent negotiating situation now. The main issue is it would be a huge risk for Putin to accept his apparent deal (arrest the current military leadership and put Prigozhin in charge of the military) because how can Putin trust him to stop there?
Sebastian
@piratedan:
I think people seriously underestimate the rock-bottom morale of Russian troops, which results in either apathy (not gonna shoot at Russians) or straight defection to Wagner control to avoid being sent into the Ukraine meatgrinder.
YY_Sima Qian
What a bizarre development!
Fair Economist
@Sebastian: This situation can’t possibly improve morale at the Russian front line. Do they want to die for Shoigu before he does? Or for Prigozhin in the war Prigozhin just said should never have been fought? Great choices.
Sebastian
@Fair Economist:
Definitely not at the frontline but I was thinking of the troops in Russia. All those soldiers have zero interest in going to Ukraine under the disastrous command of Shoigu and might just join Wagner, who plays the role of caring for the troops.
Those are not smart people and are easily convinced.
Sebastian
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@Spanky:
Okay, now that feels worthy of a rotating-tag nomination.
Chetan Murthy
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672486690307424256?s=20
I wonder if it’s true. That’s over half the way from Rostov-on-Don to Moscow.
Dangerman
OK, I need a program; can’t tell the players without a program.
I thought Prigozhin and Putin were best buddies?
How are you supposed to sleep with this shit going on?
Chetan Murthy
https://nitter.net/Tendar/status/1672476452292263936#m
Randal Sexton
@Another Scott: haha, The really good tesla super chargers are in the Stanford Shopping center parking garage , not technically Menlo Park.
Chetan Murthy
@Dangerman: Putin’s supposed to be giving a speech at 9am Moscow time. I figure I’ll wait until that get translated, and after seeing that, I’ll *try* to sleep. But yeah, it’s a little nuts, innit?
Prigo was Putin’s boy, and then …. well, maybe he got too big for his britches. Wants Daddy’s chair. It seems Prigo’s convoy is already past Voronezh — that’s halfway to Moscow. Things are moving fast.
Then again, it could all be a trap. I read that Ukraine is not missing any chances, is continuing to pound RU positions. Here’s hoping that they’re able to really capitalize on all this madness.
Origuy
This might not have been a good idea.
Chetan Murthy
https://nitter.net/KevinRothrock/status/1672494605822984192#m
damn, just damn. Even Girkin (who is [checks notes] vehemently anti-Prigo) says Wagner is in Voronezh. I hope the Musicians packed their parade uniforms!
patrick II
This guy is live streaming from inside of Russia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvbyY2zSsDI
Chetan Murthy
I know we all enjoy NEIVANMADE’s art. Here’s a new one: https://nitter.net/visegrad24/status/1672461505273507841#m
Caption: The Russian Civil War is here
Chetan Murthy
@patrick II: I know that’s the title of his channel, but is he actually inside Russia? I watched one of his vids many months ago, and got the impression he was outside Russia (but had lived there for many years, sure).
patrick II
@Chetan Murthy:
I believed the title. That is probably a mistake. He seems to be through now anyway.
Chetan Murthy
https://nitter.net/DAlperovitch/status/1672499796580466688#m
piratedan
@Chetan Murthy: since accurate information is so hard to come by within the Russian Federation, it would be irresponsible not to speculate….
is the Wagner move just to consolidate around Rostov to take control of the logistics and ensure that Wagner forces get a) paid and b) supplied? later reports seem to imply not so…
With the movement of Wagner forces towards Moscow, is it possible that they (Wagner) are looking to displace the existing RU Military structure? If so, why stop there? Does Putin have enough juice and forces to stand up to the Wagner forces… if morale is in the shitter and the complete lack of tactical success by the RU military, is there anyone on the sidelines that Pootie-Toot can toss at them with a good chance of success?
All I know, is that these interesting times are going to generate some real awesome miniseries as soon as they settle the writers strike…..
Bruce K in ATH-GR
So after reading Adam’s post and commentary, checking the various international news feeds and such, I’ve formed the opinion that nobody knows what’s happening, including the people it’s happening to and the people who are making it happen.
Chetan Murthy
@Bruce K in ATH-GR: I believe *this* is what they call the fog of war.
Chetan Murthy
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1672503263281782787
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
This is Pooty-Poot asking the west for help (eg “better devil you know than Stalin II)
Chetan Murthy
https://nitter.net/DAlperovitch/status/1672503766858309633#m
Fascinating point. One presumes that now Prigo knows “he’d best not miss.” Damn, I shoulda bought some popcorn. I’ll have to go get some tomorrow.
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
Jack Smith is going to have his hands full
Calouste
Putin says in his televised address that the military have been given “the necessary orders” to deal with Wagner. Question of course is how much of the military will follow those orders. Either way, either Putin or Prigo is not going to outlive a head of lettuce.
Mallard Filmore
@Chetan Murthy: Some Republican fucking idiot is going to tell his friends “See how easy it is to take over a country?”
Fair Economist
As I expected, Putin wouldn’t accept Prigozhin’s implicit offer. So now the question is whether Prigozhin can maintain Wagner loyalty and acquiescence from regular military. My bet is no, but we’ll see.
Chetan Murthy
@Fair Economist: It seems like Putin said “if you’re with Prigo, we’re gonna kill you”. If that’s the case, maybe the Musicians understand that defecting back to Putin won’t buy their salvation. I wonder.
Chetan Murthy
full speech
https://nitter.net/wartranslated/status/1672507753762287616#m
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Tell that to the US Marines, you vile mother fucker.
patrick II
My guess is that the part of the morale of the Russian army is low, the part of the army guarding Moscow has not taken losses in Ukraine, and in that way, they are entitled and will stand fast in the defense of Moscow. I don’t see how Prog can move enough troops north to overcome that. He has nowhere to go and Putin has no choice but to finish him.
Chetan Murthy
@patrick II: A number of commentators have noted that everything depends on whether Prigo can convince MOD units to switch sides en masse. Some alluded to the fact that that happened in 1917 too (though I don’t know if that’s correct, not a mil historian).
We should have some data on that within 24hr, I would think. If Prigo is still in the fight, living in hope, that’ll mean that units have switched.
Boy I hope so: it’d be delicious to see Russia eat itself alive.
patrick II
@Chetan Murthy:
While I am glad for the disorder if Prigo wins and if he has been truthful in his ambition to fight the war more effectively, I am not sure I like the sound of it. But the chaos in the meantime seems useful as long as desperation doesn’t cause anyone to blow up a nuclear power plant. When there is so much disorder it easily gets out of control.
Calouste
@patrick II: The troops guarding Moscow might also think that they’ve had a great deal so far not getting killed, and might like to keep it that way. And if Wagner manages to make it the 600 miles from Rostov to Moscow, he’ll have amassed a lot of MoD deserters already.
Chetan Murthy
@patrick II:
Sufficient unto the day, is the evil thereof. Right now, the more Russians kill other Russians, the fewer will be left for Ukrainians to risk their lives to kill. Maybe Russia will be so exhausted by internecine strife that they call off their little war. Maybe if Rublyovka experiences what Kyiv and Kharkiv and Dnipro (and other Ukrainian cities) have experienced, they’ll think twice about this war.
Lotta imponderables. So for now, I’m just happy that Russians are killing Russians.
Calouste
I’m surprised there haven’t been any reports yet of an aerial bombardement of Rostov. You’d think that that would be the first thing Putin would try to take Prigo out.
Chetan Murthy
https://nitter.net/HenryJFoy/status/1672522658666168320#m
Manyakitty
@Carlo Graziani: still looking for his missing cat?
TheMightyTrowel
If i were an overpaid oped writer, I’d be sharpening my pencil to write a think piece on hubris, authoritarian personalities, and carbon fiber which, like the Russian state, is extraordinarily strong until it’s put under exactly the right pressure at which point it shatters catastrophically and turns to dust, leaving devastation alone in its wake
oldster
Putin is comparing the present situation to 1917??
Think, Vova: do you really want to compare yourself to Tsar Nicholas II?
Manyakitty
@TheMightyTrowel: I’d read that.
Chris Johnson
@Frankensteinbeck: He does get out of this with his life if this is a giant troll operation indicating he flipped sides.
This is PURELY speculation following some mentions upthread about how he was behind the Russian internet trolling: that’s been by far more effective than anything else.
Why would it not be just as effective on the Russian people?
So if that’s what it is, Prigozhin, the pissed off mercenary and shitbag, flipped. He and Wagner are actually on Ukraine’s side now, and this is shown not by them becoming good and battling heroically to defend Ukraine, but by pulling off a massive troll on Russia through claiming they’re going to war on the Russian military, so stay inside and don’t look.
This is in line with all the times the same people declared massive MAGA protests in the USA which ended up being damp squibs, or when they declared a red wave that would wipe out Democrats and then it ended up being pretense. It’s a known tactic.
What does this do to the Russian military? Make them totally paranoid and sink them in chaos, with no specific plan to exploit that. Prigozhin would not be leading the charge, he’d be safe in Ukraine or somewhere, orchestrating the trolling. There would be real consequences, but not in the form of a clear leader ousting Putin, not in the form of stability.
This isn’t a great scenario on a number of fronts. One, more chaos is nobody’s friend. Two, if Ukraine likes fighting this way, that doesn’t reflect well on them: here’s hoping if the guy flipped, they don’t adopt all his horrible tactics and people. I can see how this would be tempting and we might be seeing its effectiveness: Russia could implode in the chaos, they need this guy’s chaos engine on THEIR side.
More will be revealed. I’m just saying if this guy is turning chaos war against the Russians because he’s mad at them, it’d look like this, and he’s not leading a charge because it’s not a real charge. It’s trying to get the Russian army to fight itself thinking it’s fighting Wagner. Nobody would be more provably capable of pulling that off than Prigozhin, but it’s a bad outcome.
zhena gogolia
@Bruce K in ATH-GR: Bingo.
planetjanet
@Adam L Silverman:
So I had to google your first reference to murder central only learn that is my current location. At least it is a nice hotel for one’s demise. I am happy to report that I survived the night.
planetjanet
So when is Deep State Map going to do a Russia/Wagner version so I can keep up.
a
@planetjanet: Interesting map. Thanks for the pointer. (I see they have Rostov-on-Don and a road north in light pink.)
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
@planetjanet: (foiled by autofill, yet again.)
Interesting map. Thanks for the pointer. (I see they have Rostov-on-Don and a road north in light pink.)
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@planetjanet: @Another Scott: The way to get ahead of what is going on is to review Google Maps. They’ll post the highway and road closures well ahead of time, which basically gives us an indicator of where Wagner is moving to and through and where Russia is putting defenses to slow them down before any confrontation might happen.
Chris
@Chetan Murthy:
Well, that’s the speculation that Putin is dead or incapacitated gone, probably. And also seems to remove the possibility that this was a Wagner vs MOD tiff where Putin could back either side. It’s officially Putin vs Prigo.
Carlo Graziani
@Adam L Silverman: That’s a great trick!
The road closure on the N-S M-4 highway, which joins Voronezh to Moscow, reaches all the way to a Moscow suburb called Zhilevo, about 90 km from the City center.
It may be MOD roadblocks up there, though. There is also a roadblock on the nearly-parallel M-2, at the Oka river.
Ah, there’s an 8 km gap in the M-4 road closure near Barabenovo, 120 km South of Moscow. That may possibly be where Wagner and its MOD turncoats are now. If so, there may be kabooms there soon.
ETA: On the other hand, there are a few other gaps south of there as well, so shrug. All we really know is that in some places, at least one phone running Google Maps is moving on the highway, appearing as a “gap”.
planetjanet
@Adam L Silverman:
Thank you! That is an awesome tip. I did not know that Google was that proactive.
Manyakitty
@Carlo Graziani: Bavovna!!!!
ETA: Richard Engel is on MSNBC right now talking about the M4. Okay then.
NutmegAgain
The Beeb has a live feed, for those who want their Russia news minute by minute.
Also: 278 comments, holy moley!
Bill Arnold
@planetjanet:
As Carlo says, devices using google maps (and some other mapping applications) report on location over time (speed), in real tme. (up to seconds of lag).
I don’t know if actual blockages are reported by governments; if so they could potentially be lies.