(Image by NEIVANMADE)
The Russians decided to add injury to their insult of pulling out of the grain shipment deal.
Last night, russia attacked Ukraine with 8 Kh-22 cruise missiles, 6 Onyx cruise missiles, 16 Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles, 1 Kh-59 guided air missile, 32 Shahed UAVs.
13 Kalibrs, 1 Kh-59 and 23 Shaheds were shot down.— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 19, 2023
.@ZelenskyyUa
russian terrorists deliberately targeted the infrastructure of the grain deal, and every russian missile is a blow not only to Ukraine, but also to everyone in the world who seeks a normal and safe life. pic.twitter.com/v8r5RfoGbk— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 19, 2023
Here is the narrative description of Putin’s play:
Russia says all ships in the Black Sea heading to Ukrainian ports will be considered potential military cargo starting tonight. Wheat futures jump 9%
— Maria Tadeo (@mariatad) July 19, 2023
Last night’s/this morning’s attacks followed similar strikes the night before.
Last night, russians attacked Ukraine with Kalibr cruise missiles and Shahed drones.
All missiles and 31 UAVs were destroyed.
Additionally, Ukraine's air defense shot down a reconnaissance drone.@KpsZSU— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 18, 2023
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Throughout the day, maximum attention was paid to eliminating the consequences of the Russian terrorists’ attack on Odesa, on communities in the region, on Chornomorsk, on our ports. This was perhaps the largest attempt by Russia to inflict pain on Odesa in the entire period of full-scale war. Thanks to the air defense and all our defenders of the sky, the consequences of this strike are still less than they could have been. With each such strike, we appeal to our partners again and again: Ukraine’s sky shield needs to be strengthened.
This attack proves that their target is not only Ukraine, and not only the lives of our people. About a million tons of food is stored in the ports that were attacked today. This is the volume that should have been delivered to consumer countries in Africa and Asia long ago. The port terminal that suffered the most from the Russian terror last night had 60,000 tons of agricultural products stored in it, which were intended to be shipped to China. That is, everyone is affected by this Russian terror. Everyone in the world should be interested in bringing Russia to justice for its terror.
I am grateful to all our warriors who protect our country from such attacks. I am grateful to all the rescuers, medical workers, employees of public utilities, local authorities, and volunteers who help our people overcome the consequences of terror. Odesa, Kherson, Zhytomyr, and Kirovohrad regions. Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv and Donetsk regions. Everywhere where there was shelling, missile and drone strikes. I want to thank each and every person who helps save lives!
This morning, the military, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, other government officials, and the specialized Deputy Head of the Office for Regional Policy reported to me on the conference call. In the communities affected by last night’s strikes, initial repairs have already begun.
Today I held negotiations with the Taoiseach of Ireland, who was on a visit to Ukraine. Ireland is one of our most vigorous partners in Europe. Although the country is neutral, the Irish do not remain neutral to moral challenges. In the face of such aggression, they are clearly on the bright side of history: they are helping us politically, in security issues, economically, and with sanctions. Humanitarian support is very important. Today we have discussed our further joint steps, in particular, those related to the Peace Formula and the Global Peace Summit. I am grateful to Ireland for supporting our position on the grain initiative.
I also met with Samantha Power, head of USAID, the United States Agency for International Development. The day before, she was in Odesa and absolutely understands the importance of our ports for the world’s food security and the Russian threat to global stability. Today we discussed in detail the possibilities of protecting our infrastructure and our global role. And it is very important that USAID is ready to continue working with Ukraine to support economic activity in our country, develop enterprises, and maintain jobs. I am grateful for this support!
And one more thing.
We are already actively preparing for international events scheduled for August and September. In particular, today I held a large meeting on the preparation of the Crimea Platform Summit at the level of state leaders and parliamentary level. We know for sure that the Summit will be meaningful and Crimea will become even closer to returning to the free world, even closer to liberation from occupation. All Ukrainian land and all Ukrainian people must be free.
Glory to all those who fight for Ukraine and freedom!
I thank everyone in the world who helps us!
Glory to Ukraine!
Odesa and Chornomorsk:
Massive Russian night attack on Ukraine:
– 16 Kalibr cruise missiles;
– 8 Kh-22 cruise missiles;
– 6 Onyx cruise missiles from Crimea (presumably caught on video);
– 1 Kh-59 missile;
– 32 Shahed drones.13 Kalibr missiles, Kh-59 and 23 Shaheds downed. Kh-22 and Onyx missiles… pic.twitter.com/Yh4IHlun6e
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) July 19, 2023
Massive Russian night attack on Ukraine:
– 16 Kalibr cruise missiles;
– 8 Kh-22 cruise missiles;
– 6 Onyx cruise missiles from Crimea (presumably caught on video);
– 1 Kh-59 missile;
– 32 Shahed drones.13 Kalibr missiles, Kh-59 and 23 Shaheds downed. Kh-22 and Onyx missiles targeted infrastructure of the Odesa region.
These photos were taken in the ports of Odesa and Chornomorsk. At night, Russia purposefully attacked grain terminals. The grain infrastructure of international and Ukrainian traders and carriers Kernel, Viterra, CMA CGM Group was damaged.
Is this still not enough to recognize… pic.twitter.com/yTstVHsj4T
— Oleksiy Goncharenko (@GoncharenkoUa) July 19, 2023
Russia destroyed 60,000 tons of grain in the port of Chernomorsk. How will Putin now go to BRIC summit in South Africa, where among others, this grain was shipped? Oh, yes, he won’t go – he should be arrested there on ICC warrant. pic.twitter.com/CeKUOEUQOu
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) July 19, 2023
Ukraine air force said Russia fired cruise missiles & Iranian-made suicide drones at Odesa & nearby Mykolaiv. 37 of 63 missiles & drones were shot down, a lower % than in previous months, which could be due to numerous factors: shorter travel distance, missile type, supplies, etc pic.twitter.com/yVmqjJ8HD3
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) July 19, 2023
Russian occupied Crimea:
Near Kirovske, #Russia|n-occupied #Crimea, south #Ukraine, a missile strike hit a Russian ammunition depot this morning. Detonations at the depot necessitated evacuation of ~2,000 people in nearby 4 villages.
— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) July 19, 2023
At ~4:30am there were strikes on Russian ammunition depot near Stary Krym, Crimea. ~230km from the front line. pic.twitter.com/GZWumRMpMK
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 19, 2023
/3. Ammunition detonation still continues in Stary Krym area https://t.co/u4fznVy3tz pic.twitter.com/nvdgT8Rvdu
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 19, 2023
/5. Google maps view of the targeted area.
(45.0841471, 35.0757810) pic.twitter.com/DmCPwuxc6b— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 19, 2023
This is a good moment to remind everyone about the map of Russian military bases and facilities in Crimea made by our Ukrainian colleagues from @radiosvoboda and @krymrealii. https://t.co/1XvQa8Am5M
— Mark Krutov (@kromark) July 19, 2023
Lviv:
A tiny miracle. On the 11th day after a russian missile attack on Lviv, rescuers discovered a cat under the rubble. Churchill is the name of the cat. Olha, his owner, lost her mother on that terrible day. Only the dog remained by her side. And now she has also found her cat. pic.twitter.com/CTXpRAxDFI
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 18, 2023
Here is a very long and thoughtful thread regarding what is actually happening on the ground with Ukraine’s counteroffensive. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:
New🧵: @konrad_muzyka , @RALee85 , @KofmanMichael,& I spent some time this month visiting the frontlines in Ukraine to gain new insights into the ongoing counteroffensive & the war overall. Here are some general observations. pic.twitter.com/yWzq14Zh9x
— Franz-Stefan Gady (@HoansSolo) July 18, 2023
(Note: More detailed analysis will be coming out by all of us in the coming weeks.)
First off, we spoke to NCOs, officers, a number of brigade commanders (national guard & regular army) in the field plus senior intel & defense officials in Kyiv (alongside @DAlperovitch).
Counteroffensive:
1.) By and large this is an infantryman’s fight (squad, platoon & company level) supported by artillery along most of the frontline. This has several implications: 1st: Progress is measured by yards/meters and not km/miles given reduced mobility.
2nd: Mechanized formations are rarely deployed due to lack of enablers for maneuver. This includes insufficient quantities of de-mining equipment, air defenses, ATGMs etc.2.) Ukrainian forces have still not mastered combined arms operations at scale. Operations are more sequential than synchronized. This creates various problems for the offense & IMO is the main cause for slow progress.3.) 🇺🇦 forces by default have switched to a strategy of attrition relying on sequential fires rather than maneuver. This is the reason why cluster munitions are critical to extend current fire rates into the fall: weakening Russian defenses to a degree that enables maneuver.4.) Minefields are a problem as most observers know. They confine maneuver space & slow advances. But much more impactful than the minefields per se on Ukraine’s ability to break through Russian defenses is 🇺🇦s inability to conduct complex combined arms operations at scale.Lack of a comprehensive combined arms approach at scale makes Ukrainian forces more vulnerable to Russian ATGMs, artillery etc. while advancing. So it’s not just about equipment. There’s simply no systematic pulling apart of the Russian defensive system that I could observe.5.) The character of this offensive will only likely change if there is a more systematic approach to breaking through Russian defenses, perhaps paired with or causing a severe degradation of Russian morale, that will lead to a sudden or gradual collapse of Russian defenses.Absent a sudden collapse of Russian defenses, I suspect this will remain a bloody attritional fight with reserve units being fed in incrementally in the coming weeks & months.6.) There is limited evidence of a systematic deep battle that methodically degrades Russian C2/munitions. Despite rationing on the Russian side, ammunition is available and Russians appear to have fairly good battlefield ISR coverage.Russians also had no need to deploy operational reserves yet to fend off Ukrainian attacks.There is also evidence of reduced impact of HIMARS strikes due to effective Russian countermeasures. (This is important to keep in mind re. any potential tac. impact of delivery of ATACMs.)Russian forces, even if severely degraded & lacking ammo, are likely capable of delaying, containing or repulsing individual platoon- or company-sized Ukrainian advances unless these attacks are better coordinated & synchronized along the broader frontline.7.) Quality of Russian forces varies. Attrition is hitting them hard but they are defending their positions well, according to Ukrainians we spoke to. They have been quite adaptable at the tactical level and are broadly defending according to Soviet/Russian doctrine.8.) Russian artillery rationing is real & happening. Ukraine has established fire superiority in tube artillery while Russia retains superiority in MRLSs in the South. Localized fire superiority in some calibers alone does not suffice, however, to break through Russian defenses.9.) An additional influx of weapons systems (e.g., ATACMs, air defense systems, MBTs, IFVs etc.) while important to sustain the war effort, will likely not have a decisive tactical impact without adaptation and more effective integration.Ukraine will have to better synchronize & adapt current tactics, without which western equipment will not prove tac. decisive in the long run. This is happening but it is slow work in progress. (Most NATO-style militaries would struggle with this even more than the 🇺🇦s IMO).10.) The above is also true for breaching operations. Additional mine clearing equipment is needed & will be helpful (especially man-portable mine-clearing systems) but not decisive without better integration of fire & maneuver at scale.(Again, I cannot emphasize enough how difficult this is to pull off in wartime.)
Monocausal explanations for failure (like lack of de-mining equipment) do not reflect reality. E.g., some Ukrainian assaults were stopped by Russian ATGMs even before reaching the 1st 🇷🇺 minefield.
11.) There is a dearth of artillery barrels that is difficult to address given production rates and delivery timelines.12.) So far Ukraine’s approach in this counteroffensive has been first and foremost direct assaults on Russian positions supported by a rudimentary deep battle approach. And no, these direct assaults are not mere probing attacks.13.) There is evidence of tactical cyber operations supporting closing of kinetic kill-chains. That is cyber ISR contributing to identifying & tracking targets on the battlefield. Starlink remains absolutely key for Ukrainian C2.14.) Quality of Ukrainian officers and NCOs we met appears excellent & morale remains high. However, there are some force quality issues emerging with less able bodied & older men called up for service now.15.) The narrative that Ukrainian progress thus far is slow just because of a lack of weapons deliveries and support is monocausal & is not shared by those we spoke to actually fighting & exercising command on the frontline.16.) It goes without saying that in a war of attrition, more artillery ammunition & hardware is always needed and needs to be steadily supplied. (Western support of Ukraine certainly should continue as there is still the prospect that the counteroffensive will make gains.)But soldiers fighting on the frontline we spoke to are all too aware that lack of progress is often more due to force employment, poor tactics, lack of coordination btw. units, bureaucratic red tape/infighting, Soviet style thinking etc. & …Russians putting up stiff resistance.
This lines up with some of the informed constructive, though clearly frustrated, criticism provided by the Ukrainian officer who tweets as Tataragami.
Few thoughts on the "frozen conflict" perspective
From my perspective, the concept of a "frozen conflict" can be dangerous, as it masks the underlying reality of a lack of will or resources to continue the fight against russia, effectively admitting defeat in a war of attrition.… pic.twitter.com/8EkPBPldYX
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) July 13, 2023
From my perspective, the concept of a “frozen conflict” can be dangerous, as it masks the underlying reality of a lack of will or resources to continue the fight against russia, effectively admitting defeat in a war of attrition. It is concerning that some elites in the Western countries do not perceive this war as a broader confrontation between the West and Russia, but rather as a localized conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
The problem lies in the divergence of perspectives. While some of the Wester elites perceive the conflict as localized, Russia sees it as part of a broader war against NATO and the West. Putin’s explicit declarations of being at war with the West should not be taken lightly or dismissed as mere rhetoric.
Perception often holds more weight than objective reality in shaping decisions. If Russia believes it has successfully expanded its territories and withstood sanctions and pressure from a NATO-trained and supplied Ukrainian army, it will reinforce their imperial beliefs. It will also send ambiguous signals to countries such as Iran, China and North Korea. It may create uncertainty regarding the ability of the West to win a war of attrition.
While some may perceive my viewpoint as an exaggeration, it is important to acknowledge that the perceived weak response of the West during the 2014 Crimea invasion played a significant role in shaping Putin’s confidence in getting away with further annexations.The internal situation in Russia has notably deteriorated, as evidenced by the recent Wagner mutiny. By consistently inflicting military defeats and delivering impactful blows to the russian forces, we have the potential to further destabilize the Russian elites. This could lead to internal collapse, power struggles, and ultimately, a full liberation of Ukraine.
However, any attempt to “freeze” the conflict would inadvertently strengthen Putin’s hold on power and provide Russia with the necessary time to rearm and prepare for future conflicts. The perception of a NATO defeat in the eyes of Russians could become a catalyst for renewed hostilities in the future.
The existence of a frozen conflict poses a significant obstacle for Ukraine’s NATO membership, as one of the requirements is the absence of territorial disputes. While it is theoretically possible to resolve such conflicts, as it was with West and East Germany, concerns persist that certain countries may exploit this requirement to block Ukraine’s accession to NATO due to fears of a real war with Russia.
In the past, I wrote about challenges that our troops were facing near Bakhmut. I received criticism from both compatriots and foreign supporters of our country for saying it, but I turned out to be right about it.
Regrettably, we remain in a state of ongoing uncertainty, with…
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) July 16, 2023
That's the problem. F-16 is not some wunderwaffe which will change the course of war. Neither are Bradley's or Leos. I am talking about internal changes and adopting more bottom-up approach rather than top-down approach.
We have more Soviet mindset now than we did in 2022
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) July 16, 2023
Unless we do something radically different, including serious changes inside of Ukraine, we won't kick russians out. I hate to say it, but that's the reality
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) July 16, 2023
The difference is that I don’t care about “progress” by measuring minefield length or some silly map arrows, I care about number of people being KIA and WIA to achieve certain goals. You can absolutely have operational success and lose strategically if you overspend resources
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) July 17, 2023
The recent counteroffensive in the Torske-Kupyansk axis has come as a surprise to many. However, I had previously written about their preparations for this counteroffensive almost a month ago.
Currently, the Russians are conducting extensive training of new motorized units in… https://t.co/YGgo48DW8e
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) July 17, 2023
The recent counteroffensive in the Torske-Kupyansk axis has come as a surprise to many. However, I had previously written about their preparations for this counteroffensive almost a month ago.
Currently, the Russians are conducting extensive training of new motorized units in the Soutern military district. In order to strengthen our troops, we will need additional weaponry and improve training conditions
I don’t mean to doom, but it is important for analysts, politicians and military observers to take these warnings seriously. By doing so, we can effectively prioritize obtaining the necessary armament for Ukraine, as well as exert pressure on our own MoD to address internal issues.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns 🤭❤️
Alison Rose
So as part of his maniacal temper tantrum, putin is going to take food out of the mouths of millions of people who have never set foot in Ukraine. If this sack of garbage could figure out a way to blow up the entire planet except his own shithole country, he’d do it. A beyzer gzar zol er af dir kumen.
“Concerning” isn’t the word I’d use. “Aggravating and stupid” feels more accurate.
The cat story made me sad and happy at the same time. Which is basically how I feel all the time, so, you know.
Thank you as always, Adam.
oldster
I hope that Erdogan, Nato, and the EU more generally call Putin’s bluff on the transport of grain through the Black Sea. Escort the grain-ships with credible warships, and let Russia try to stop them.
We have the moral high-ground on this question, especially in the global south. The party that wants to feed the world looks a lot better than the party that wants to destroy grain.
If we convoy those grain freighters with Turkish or Nato warships, Putin will not touch them.
dr. luba
The Patron video is called “Best Druh,” a hybrid English-Ukrainian term meaning best friend.
Chetan Murthy
Those threads from Tatarigami are pretty dour. It seems more and more clear that we screwed UA over, didn’t give them enough long-range strike, enough air defense, enough MLRS. Enough of everything. We figured they’d die a lot, and eventually beat Russia with one hand tied behind their back. Sigh.
Martin
At what point does NATO see a direct threat from Russia against food sources as a threat against NATO? I know this isn’t our first look at this, but does the calculus change at some point? If Putin insists on a war with NATO, can NATO actually prevent that from eventually happening? Or do we just have to wait until Ukraine is ground down to a certain point before giving into it?
I mean, sure we can escort the grain ships, but that doesn’t really solve the problem. It makes us feel better about the problem, but it doesn’t solve it.
I’m in a very ‘let’s cut to the chase’ mood these days. This has me really fucking rattled. I am out of patience for excuses for why we can’t do things.
Anonymous At Work
How deep is Russia’s stockpile of the missiles being used to strike at civilians? Putin’s burning their stocks hard and sanctions are squeezing resupply, but at what point does Putin not launch because there is none, as opposed to not launch tonight because he doesn’t feel like it?
Ksmiami
Just declare war on Russia. Fuck it. The country cannot be allowed to live.
Ruckus
@Chetan Murthy:
It’s war.
It is never good.
It is never right.
It is never the answer.
But it is what it is. It is what humanity has been doing for ever. It is always a balancing act no matter which way it goes. How much do you do, how do you do that, how much are you willing to put into it so that it ends but doesn’t end with even more destruction and death. How much do you push in this day and age with the weapons we have? Because we can go too far, way, way, way too far. And so can so many countries, including the one that started this one. It is never an easy answer. Never, ever easy.
In this case the instigator of this war is bat shit insane, so if you deal with him overwhelmingly, how do you think he will respond? I’d bet bat shit insanely. And the world really cannot deal with that and remain a world.
The world at war changed in August 1945. And yes we’ve had conflicts since and most of them were not between nations that have the weapons that many do today. But what happens if that deranged mad man decides that he has to go all in? How does the world respond? You really, really, really do not want to find out. And that means that conflicts can and likely will drag on because going the least bit too far with the wrong country, the wrong deranged, insane, asshole can/will be far worse for everyone. And that’s where we are today. As bad as it is, do you want it to get a hell of a lot worse for a hell of a lot more people?
The Pale Scot
I read on Intel Crab that the RU military blogger Rybar posted that the troops he is with are exhausted from continuous UKR attacks. He wrote that the UKR are rotating troops keeping them fresh while RU troops are not being rotated at all. Also that RU has pretty much run through their own supply of artillery barrels and manufacturing them is questionable. I guess China feels that supplying them is too big a risk
Chetan Murthy
@Martin: I share your frustration, but …. nuclear apocalypse. We need to be sending UA more of everything, and not worrying about how RU will feel about it. We can just remind them (at the UNSC) that they put Soviet pilots and contractors into both the Korean and Vietnam wars, so we’re not even going as far as they went.
If we give Ukraine enough weaponry to blow up everything that moves in Zaprozhzhia, they’ll be able to get thru. Ukraine is still on a shell diet, for example. We have to stop with this bullshit of “one and a half wars”. B/c if UA doesn’t win, we’ll be in that “one war” for sure.
Geminid
@oldster: Not to quibble too much, but- Turkish warships are NATO warships.
I’m sure you know this, but I’ve been struck by some of the commentary in other forums where that fact is disregarded. I saw someone writing for a think tank who suggested that perhaps NATO needed to send a minesweeper into the Black Sea! Turkiye has 11 minesweepers.
Turkiye clearly will be the key actor in this matter. Romania,and Bulgaria do not have much naval capability, and the Treaty of Montreaux limits the tonnage of the warships non-Black Sea nations can move into the Black Sea, as well as the time they are allowed to stay- 21 days. But NATO can deploy substantial air power at bases in Romania for close support.
Turkish President Erdogan is not saying what he will do about grain shipments, and if he made any commitments to President Zelenskyy in Istanbul Zelenskyy is not saying either. I think Erdogan’s preference is to bring Putin back to the Grain Initiative. Perhaps the UN will broker more concessions on Western financial sanctions, or maybe China will lean on Russia, or both. The Chinese buy a lot of grain from Ukraine.
Erdogan holds his cards cards close to his vest, and he doesn’t care at all about what people like us think. But I don’t think he will let the stoppage of Ukraine’s Black Sea Grain exports go on for very long without taking decisive action. Erdogan places a lot value in Turkiye’s status as a power in the Black Sea region and beyond, and he has said that the grain deal involves Turkiye’s “vital interrests.”
Also, now that he has won reelection Erdogan does not need Russian financial help like he did before May 28. He just shook the money trees in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emeirates and got quite a harvest.
Erdogan does talk about Putin’s upcoming trip to Turkiye, which he will allow notwithstanding the arrest warrant from the Hague Russia needs Turkiye now more than Turkiye ever needed Russia, so maybe resumption of the Grain Initiative will be a condition for Turkish hospitality.
Chetan Murthy
@Ruckus:
If Ukraine doesn’t win, it *will* get a hell of a lot worse for a hell of a lot more people. B/c RU will take their win as a sign they can press on in Europe.
Carlo Graziani
@Anonymous At Work: Russia isn’t depleting a stockpile: their average monthly firing rate is basically their average monthly production/acquisition rate. Which has gone up, rather than down since last winter—they are firing more frequent, smaller salvoes compared to the sporadic huge ones from last January-March.
I posted an analysis of the data setting this out a couple of weeks ago, in comments to Adam’s update.
Jay
@Ruckus:
Ruzzia has already been told that any nuclear use, or a “nuclear accident”, will be met with the destruction of Ruzzia.
Ruzzia’s threats are empty.
kalakal
I’m wondering when/if the Ukranians use Stormshadows to trash the Kerch bridge. It’s exactly the sort of target they’re designed for. They’ve already used them to destroy the Chonar bridge connecting Crimea and Kherson
Ksmiami
It’s not fair to force Ukraine to continue this war without everything they need to win.
Ruckus
@Chetan Murthy:
You are right it will.
But I’m not sure you are following what I’m saying. vlad is batshit insane, yes that’s obvious. Batshit insane humans do batshit insane things. And vlad has and is doing batshit insane right now. He can get a hell of a lot worse, and he might no matter what the rest of the world does, because his type often does. But what is done and who does it can make him even more batshit insane, it is easily possible for him to go completely batshit and decide if he can’t have whatever, no one else can either. YOU DO NOT WANT THAT.
Life is a balancing act. War is part of human life and is also a balancing act. You do not want to find out what happens if it gets too far out of balance. You do not want to find out what some of the weapons will do to life and this planet. You just do not.
japa21
Just a personal thought. I have been thinking a lot lately if I want to continue to exist in a world where we failed to give Ukraine what it needs to win and in time they do lose. I am not sure I do.
Chetan Murthy
@Ruckus: Ruckus, your prognostications lead to only one outcome: we need to give up Ukraine to Russia. B/c by your reasoning, when and if Ukraine starts to push Russia out (let’s say, of Crimea, but maybe even the Donbass) hey’ll escalate to nukes.
ETA: and after Ukraine, we’ll need to give up the Baltics, and Poland, and the rest of the CEE countries, one-by-one. B/c he’s a madman, and you never know what he’ll do, if he’s thwarted.
Ella in New Mexico
@oldster:
Agreed. We need to take this right up to the frigging limit and protect those freighters.
And if he thinks he can cross the line, then, well, Pootie is sadly mistaken about his ability to handle what he’ll get.
sanjeevs
Interesting comments by the head of MI6
UK’s MI6 Chief Says Putin Cut a Deal to End Wagner Revolt – The New York Times (nytimes.com)
Alison Rose
I admit, I find this POV troubling. Because what it sounds like you’re saying is: So long as it’s only Ukrainians bearing the brunt of it, that’s acceptable. That the rest of the world should be okay with Ukraine suffering so long as it forestalls our own. “As bad as it is” feels like a glib way to describe what Ukrainians are being put through. I’d like to know — and I am asking this sincerely and in good faith, not as a gotcha — do you think there has ever or would ever be a situation in which joining a war not begun on our own soil or by our own military is the right thing to do? Is there a line, not just nuclear, that could be crossed by the russians where you would deem it necessary for other nations to join the effort to stop them? Ukraine is fighting for its actual existence as a nation and a people. Do you think allowing them to lose that fight is acceptable? And why is it up to the rest of the world to decide what is acceptable for Ukraine?
I am not saying we should be putting US troops on the ground this moment. I am not saying we, and other Western nations, haven’t done a lot. We have. I am saying we ought to be doing more of what we have already done, and it is not only me saying that, but others who have a lot more knowledge and experience than I do. I am saying that at a certain point, the moral choice to avoid war becomes an immoral disregard for the victims of it. I am saying that if the world does denote any lines beyond which putin must not cross, he will gleefully and viciously cross every single of them, leaving the decimation of a nation and its people in his wake. I am saying that I, personally, would find it immoral to sit by and be okay with that. I am saying I for one would not want to be the person telling people from Bakhmut, Bucha, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and so on that while it’s very sad that they lost their home, their parents, their spouse, their children, their siblings…it would be far far sadder if other people in a volunteer army from thousands of miles away lost their lives while doing their job to try to protect them.
Ruckus
@Jay:
No, they are not empty threats.
And no one in their right minds should or will think that they are. The person in charge on the other side is batshit insane. You cannot count on him making sane decisions. You cannot count on him bluffing. This is not a game where there is a winner and a loser. This can easily become a game that ends badly for every single animal on this planet, two, four or more legs. And to think otherwise can cause destruction on a level that no one will be left to clean up.
Carlo Graziani
Per The Moscow Times: S.Africa Confirms Putin Will Skip BRICS Summit. No big surprises there. They guy never takes risks with his own safety.
Ruckus
@Chetan Murthy:
BULLSHIT.
That is not what I said or am saying, that anyone should give up.
But to think that an irrational human is going to all of a sudden act rational is delusional. To think that he likely won’t over react is delusional. And far riskier than most any other possibility.
oldster
@Ksmiami:
No one is forcing Ukraine to continue the war, except Putin.
I agree that we should give Ukraine everything (short of nukes) that they need to win.
But I would not phrase this in terms of our “forcing Ukraine to continue fighting” — that’s too close to an analysis of the situation that is favored by Putin’s propagandists.
ETA: sorry — I don’t want that to sound harsh. I am not accusing you of peddling propaganda.
I notice some tension in the thread, and that’s not surprising given that the war is in a difficult phase. I don’t want to add to it. “These are the times that try men’s souls,” said someone long ago in a similar situation.
Jay
@Ruckus:
this is the 197th time in over 500 days when the Orc’s Foreign Minister has threatened to use nukes.
https://nitter.net/pic/orig/media%2FF1Wq5wNaMAE0KXZ.jpg
It’s all bluff, the Orc’s have backed down from every threat, except for Kersh Bridge The Sequel,
in which they blew up 60,000 tons of grain, destined for,…………….
wait for it,
China.
Chetan Murthy
@Ruckus: I’m sorry, Ruckus, but you responded to my saying that we should be giving UA more *stuff*, more of *everything*. The only way I can interpret that, is that you think that if we give UA more stuff, and Putin starts to visibly lose, he’ll use nukes. From that, I can only conclude that you think we *MUST NOT* give UA *more of everything*, for fear of nuclear catastrophe.
If that’s not what you mean, then I’d like to understand where your red lines are.
Anyway
What’s with the newfangled spelling of Russia?
Jay
@Anyway:
Z
Ruckus
@Alison Rose:
If you are answering to me, let me state again, I am not saying this is over or that Ukraine should give up or that we shouldn’t support them 100%.
I am saying that there is a risk here that is more than Ukraine might lose. There is a risk if russia does. It’s the “If I can’t have it no one can!” rational because the protagonist here is batshit insane. It’s a balancing act in this kind of situation with this type of antagonist. It always will be and it has to be taken into account.
I don’t have really any answers, but I know this is not an open and shut case and it isn’t because of Ukraine, it’s because of russia and vlad.
Martin
@Chetan Murthy: I mean, Putin launches nukes at his whim. That’s always been his option. He could have done it last February, he can do it tomorrow. If he believes NATO is the threat that everyone keeps attributing to him, then either he’s going to launch nukes without much provocation, or he’s assessed that he’s never going to launch nukes so long as we don’t.
That nuclear risk already exists. Today. You have to deal with it as it exists. Today.
Now, I’m not calling for an overthrow of Russia or an occupation of Russia, but push them back to the 2014 borders and keep them behind those borders. Yes, I know that easier said than done. Yes I know that Russia will threaten NATO assets from their territory and that will require a response.
But Putin also knows that the attack on Odesa grain infrastructure is received as a threat to people outside of Ukraine. He knows that. What response is he expecting from that? Because he’s certainly expecting one.
Ksmiami
Actually the smartest thing we and our Allie’s could do is admit Ukraine into NATO immediately and then give Vlad 24-48 hours to leave before Article 5 is invoked. Ukraine gets saved, Putin gets an excuse to leave and the rebuilding can start. This slow go approach is starting to smell.
Chetan Murthy
@Martin: So now I’m going to cross over to Ruckus’ side of this discussion. We cannot risk getting involved unless nukes are already in play. There are nearly 8 billion other humans on this planet who deserve to live. So we’re not going to get involved directly.
But we *can* give Ukraine much more standoff weaponry. The stuff we would use in a fight. A ton more. And we can really up the # of fighters that are coming this winter. Ukraine is still doing all the fighting, but FFS, we can give them much, much, much more of everything. And we’re not doing that. Ukraine is still on a shell diet, they’re still having to be parsimonious with long-range fires. We can fix that. We can give them much more armor, much more IFVs. Much more anti-mine equipment (remember the report that they got 15% of what they asked for?) And we need to be training many more UA conscripts in both Europe and in the US.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
We are kinda tapped out on shells for now.
But yeah, there are other area’s we can ramp up,
but we also need to ramp up for our own defence
Even if Ruzzia is defeated in Ukraine, Ruzzia, under Pootie Poot or anybody else, is not done with their war on the West.
Geminid
@Chetan Murthy: I agree with this for the most part, but I’m not sure we can provide Ujraine with 155mm shells more rapidly than we are, at least not sustainably in the short run I believe one of the reasons the US decided to send the cluster munitions was that we were running out of regular 155mm shells to send.
This might have been avoided if we had made increasing production capacity a high priority last year, but we didn’t. Even with sufficient materials and labor, the complex machines required take months to produce.
Geminid
But I repeat myself.
Bill Arnold
@Martin:
Re the 2023 global sea temperature anomaly, this reply to a reply by Eliot Jacobson is terrifying.:
Martin
@Chetan Murthy: Can we, though? Sure ATACMS, but ok, let’s give them F-35s and the USS Gerald Ford. Every thing that might really tip the balance is responded with ‘they don’t know how to use them’ or ‘they don’t have the supply chain for it’.
We have these things because we designed them around our capabilities or we expanded our capabilities during their development. And beyond that, we’re told that these things are effective because we use them in a combined arms effort or in an integrated environment. The planes need AWACS or satellites or refueling tankers or +++.
So yeah, there are *some* things, but those things can also put a conventional warhead on the Kremlin, and I’m not convinced that whatever plausible deniability we get from having a Ukrainian pilot flying that American F-16 over a US pilot flying that American F-16 is sufficient. Again, Putin is operating on his own ruleset which we can only guess at. We seem to be guessing that so long as the American F-16 isn’t too OP, that it’ll be excused. But you’re calling for things that would be too OP, that would hit Russian assets very far from the front lines with a kind of precision that Russia can’t match, or take their aircraft down from long range, maybe while still over Russia, and so on.
It seems to me that either Putin feels threatened of losing all this ground taken or he doesn’t, and *how* he’s threatened may not matter that much. That seems to be the fine line that we’re walking, and I get it, but it’s not proving to be a recipe for success according to, well, a lot of people today.
So, consider me unconvinced that one flavor of escalation is less safe in terms of nuclear conflict than the other flavor of escalation.
CarolPW
@Alison Rose: Makes me think of “The Ones Who Walk Away from Omelas.”
Martin
BTW, I don’t think Putin is irrational. I think his decision making is rational within the ruleset that he is operating, which has a set of objectives that don’t politically or culturally make sense to Americans. Nothing in his actions are irrational. Arrogant. Ignorant at times. But not irrational.
The Pale Scot
RU will be depleted, the dangers China, NK, and others
Geminid
Regarding warplanes, I read a report today that Poland will send Ukraine 20 more Mig-29 fighter jets. The transfer will require US approval because the planes carry US-made avionics.
Chetan Murthy
@Martin:
Is there any evidence for the theory that Ukraine has used our weapons in any meaningful way in Russia proper? Setting aside firing directly across the border at RU arty ? I haven’t seen any. Why would we think UA would change this?
Nope. I don’t think we should give UA weapons that they can use against deep RU assets. Just against Crimea, against deep in Donetsk. etc. And a shit-ton of weapons, so they don’t need to go on a diet. Yes, that’ll mean that RU can continue to launch waves of missiles at UA. Which is why we need to have given them a shit-ton of anti-air missiles already. We need to stop drip-drip-drip. Instead of sending tens of HAWK missile launchers, send hundreds. I mean, we have them, FFS. Make every major UA city impregnable.
Jay
@Martin:
Pootie Poot could give a rat shit about the areas of Ukraine that he has occupied. Demonstrated by many examples.
Pootie Poot is invested in “losing” in a way that he can’t sell it to the Orc’s, Vatnicks and Russians as a “win”.
A Lada in every pot, plus a bag of carrots.
Right now, he is worried about losing power, which tends to not end well for the Throne.
Chetan Murthy
@Martin: I’ve also read credible reporting that the US was dragging its feet on approving European countries training UA pilots on F-16s. And instead of using existing training bases and equipment, they’re setting up a fresh base in Romania? I mean, what’s up with that? More foot-dragging? Ugh.
I’ve read that a lot of this is due to Jake Sullivan, who’s been foot-dragging all along. Again: ugh.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
RUAS forces dominate Ukraine frontal airspace from inside Ruzzia.
Whacking SU 27’s , Mig 29’s and AWACS inside Belarus and Ruzzia would go a long way in “levelling” the playing field.
Bill Arnold
@Jay:
No, they are not.
Fewer/weaker teeth that they pretend to have, and those teeth barred for propaganda reasons, but those teeth can destroy human civilization like they could for the last 60 years. Or at least knock it down hard for several decades. Nobody has the right to significant increase the risks of a thermonuclear exchange that would kill by some estimates billions of human beings (mostly by starvation). And arguments that kinetic war with Russia would decrease the risk – well, show the quantitative risk analysis. No hand-waving.
Geminid
@Chetan Murthy: I think I read that the US has pursuaded Taiwan to transfer 100 Hawk batteries to Ukraine. They’ve been in storage for a while now.
I’m not sure we have many if any Hawk batteries left. Israel does, but they still maintain their policy of not sending lethal weapons to Ukraine, as does South Korea. The US is probably trying to shake Hawk batteries out of other allies.
The new package of US miltary contains more advanced anti-aircraft and anti-missile weapons systems.
The Pale Scot
My solution to the grain shipments. Round up and arrest all the siloviki’s family that are enjoying life in the west and lash them to grain ships.
In Vietnam in the 50’s a Foreign Legion officer (an SS refugee) tied family members to his trucks and drove around unmolested
Martin
@Bill Arnold: Yeah. See (for whoever reads this) systems are considered ‘well behaved’ if there is a set of reliable assumed conditions that they are governed by which causes the system to not deviate by more than a certain amount.
This is now a system deviating by more than it should be able to. And we know the earth goes through periods of both global and local instability where it shifts from one point of stability and well-behavedness to another. So either this system has become unstable, there is something more substantial happening here, or we’re transitioning between points of stability. None of those are good.
Normally you’d see a new record high and assume we’d regress to the mean, that there was a localized condition that caused that new high. But this isn’t revering to the mean – and that force should have been there all along and yet it defied it. That doesn’t mean it won’t settle back into its old range, but it no longer seems particularly contained to that range either.
If people want to know what a ‘tipping point’ looks like. It looks like this. This may not be it, but nobody can say it’s not either. We’re the keep watching and cross our fingers stage of this.
The Pale Scot
F-16’s are the wrong type. There are over hundred F-18s being retired in AUS and Ca. They are all weather rough field capable planes with long range radars and missiles.
With RU playing games with our drones over the Black Sea, how about fill one up with explosives and let the orcs FAFO
Geminid
@Chetan Murthy: I don’t think there is a new airbase being built in Romania, just a new training center at an existing base. Al Jazeera reported that officials “on the sidelines” at the Vilnius summit said training would begin in August, which would be awful quick to build a new airbase.
Romania is actually not that that bad a place to train pilots. It neighbors Ukraine, and the airspace is less crowded than in Northern Europe.
Another Scott
@The Pale Scot:
There are always complications. (If it were easy, it would have been done already.)
Yahoo.com (from June 10):
More at the link.
Cheers,
Scott.
Chetan Murthy
@Geminid: Yes, and if this were the only example of a one-month delay, then it’d be fine. But it’s not, is it? Everywhere we look, there are delays. That’s the problem! These delays mean that Ukraine will be fighting this war into 2025. Or worse. We didn’t need to set up a new training base, and we could have been training Ukrainian pilots from the day after Biden gave the OK. In existing training facilities in Europe. But no ……
Jay
@Bill Arnold:
We arn’t going to use nukes first.
We have no control over Pootie Poots use of nukes. If he is “as insane” as some people claim, he might nuke us because his birthday cake is red velvet/polomium and not lemon chiffon.
So far, Ruzzia threats of “nukes”, “escalation”, Invading the Baltics”, have been empty.
Occam’s Razor would suggest that the Orc’s threats are empty.
The didn’t take Kiev in 3 days, are barely hanging on and their “Winter Offensive” failed.
The Pale Scot
Holy shit. This guy on RU tv is saying that the 100 million who aren’t ethnic Moscovy should be eliminated
https://twitter.com/ne_vluchiv/status/1657195026387030020
Geminid
@Chetan Murthy: It’s not a new training base. It’s a training center at an existing air base. That can be stood up as quickly in Romania as in Holland.
As for the rest, I agree except- there has been no certainty that Congress would appropriate more money for military aid to Ukraine. It seems likely now, but not so earlier this year.
The Defense Department has been working off the $44 billion appropriation in last December’s Omnibus spending bill. That has funded weapons needed more acutely than the relatively expensive F-16. Some, like Patriot missiles and GLSDMs, fulfill functions the F-16s would and are more capable of surviving in this battlespace.
So the US government may have been making neccesary trade offs. Now European countries have said they will provide F-16s, but that is a relatively recent development
Gin & Tonic
@Martin: 100%. He is a criminal, but he is not insane. He operates according to criminal rules, not the rules that diplomats and foreign-policy “experts” wish he’d follow. He is no more insane or irrational than Al Capone or John Gotti.
Martin
No, but since so much of this argument is framed in terms of ‘what might happen’, that doesn’t matter. What matters is that Ukraine *could* do that, just like the US *could* push for regime change even if we say we won’t. There’s a bit of goalpost shifting here between what *does* happen and what *might* happen.
Moscow isn’t that much further from the Ukrainian held border than Kerch is from Zaporizhzhia. It’s hard to enable one without enabling the other.
Carlo Graziani
@Gin & Tonic: Yes.
YY_Sima Qian
Putin: anarchist, arsonist, vandalist, but a calculating one.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Zelenskyy’s comment about the grains in the damaged storage facility being destined to China is a calculated move. As agricultural commodities, the grains could have been destined for anywhere, could have been sold or resold before loading onto ships, or even during transportation to Asia. Zelenskyy’s comment is aimed at Beijing, to get Xi to lean on Putin to return to the deal, & I am sure Ukrainian diplomats are conveying the same message to their Chinese counterparts. I think China will in fact put some pressure on Putin, behind the scenes, since resuming grains shipment from Odesa is strongly in Chinese interest.
Putin is holding Ukrainian grains exports hostage to facilitate the export of Russian grains (& receive the hard currency they generate). He may well be communicating his terms to Xi, Modi & Erdogan under the table, & China/India/Türkiye may very well try to accommodate him on that front, in order to reconstitute the deal.
Carlo Graziani
@Martin:
Oh goody, a bit of dynamical system theory.
Technically, the picture of alternation between stable points applies to non-externally-forced systems. The Lorentz ’63 “butterfly attractor’ model provides the ur-example of this phenomenon (albeit in 3-d rather than in the infinite-dimensional space of climate states). If the system is not externally forced then any points of stability are stationary, and can recur with some alternation.
The Earth’s climate is being forced, however. The forcing term is the anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, which acts as a time-dependent forcing term. Under the circumstances, the better visual picture is that the attractor itself has been destabilized. In the Lorentz ’63 analogy, it is as if the previously stable “butterfly” structure is changing in time, and moving faster than the dynamical trajectory can keep up with it. So the trajectory has no chance to equilibrate to an altered attractor.
That is the reason that the signature of climate change is not really “warming,” but rather instability and unpredictability. The climatology is moving as fast or faster than the climate state can change. And because we can’t really model the climate with very good fidelity (witness the uncertainties in the IPCC forecasts) we have no idea where we’re going.
That is why we should be very scared.
TheMightyTrowel
@japa21:
I don’t know you aside from occasionally coming across your posts here, and I mostly lurk so you don’t know me probably at all, but I want you to keep existing in the strongest of terms. This is an unjust and ugly war, and as someone who spends a lot of time looking at the past, I can promise basically all wars are. The bigger fight – away from the Dnieper or the steppe – is a fight against nihilism, a fight for community, a fight to craft a future that is less dire and less stupid. The people you know in real life, who love you and spend time with you, they also want you to keep existing. Fuck Putin and nuclear weapons and tanks and bombs – every life is a precious thing and I hope you hold yours close. I am 100% sure without even knowing you because you are part of this community that you make the world around you better just by being you.
Manyakitty
@The Pale Scot: sounds reasonable.
Manyakitty
@The Pale Scot: I keep hearing that about the F-18s, too. Why, then, does everyone seem so fixated on the F-16s?
Carlo Graziani
I’m just going to state what really should be obvious: the logic of nuclear deterrence has not changed in any meaningful way from what it was in the Cold War: first use of nuclear weapons is a suicidal act, so that a credible threat of nuclear use can only be made by a state that faces an existential threat anyway.
Putin values his own survival. We just saw the latest demonstration of that fact in his decision not to attend the BRICS meeting in South Africa. From that, you may draw appropriate conclusions concerning the credibility of Russian nuclear threats.
Manyakitty
@Another Scott: thanks for the explanation!
Manyakitty
@Carlo Graziani: right, and the comment upthread about how NATO won’t get involved until the nuclear threat is real or imminent or whatever is nonsense. The threat is real. Putin has nukes. There is a nonzero chance that he’ll push the button out of sheer spite and malice. If that’s our big concern, we might as well address it now. Not sure what that looks like, but this dithering around isn’t it.
Jay
@Manyakitty:
A bunch of NATO states are transitioning to F-35’s from F-16’s, so there are a bunch of the latest gen being mothballed, and a “swack” of states that can do training.
wombat probability cloud
@YY_Sima Qian: I’d love to see a Chinese freighter show up at the port in Odesa to be laden with grain. One can dream…
Manyakitty
@Jay: okay. And I guess their relative ubiquity does make the maintenance more manageable.
Geminid
@Martin: I think Ukraine has been scrupulous in their observation of the restriction almost all* NATO countries have placed on using weapons they provide: that they not be used on targets on Russian soil. Ukraine pretty much has to be.
* According to the Oryx article by Stijn Mitzer, “The Stalwart Ally: Turkish Arms Deliveries to Ukraine” Nov. 23 2022, Turkey does not restrict the use of their weapons in this way. Early in the war, Ukraine made use of this latitude to strike targets in Kursk and Bryank Oblasts. Russia then tightened up its air defenses and the Bayraktar TB-2 drones were curbed.
I found the Mitzer article very illuminating. He observed that while Turkiye’s arms deliveries are not publicized by Ukraine or Turkiye they are substantial, among the top NATO nations. Other reports say that Turkiye surged arms to Ukraine in the weeks leading up to the war. I figure that’s how a Turkish cargo plane got stranded at an airfield in Ukraine. The Russians did not destroy the plane, but they would not let it fly out for five months.
Mitzer also gives some background on Turkiye’s relationship with Russia, including how in 2020 Turkiye stymied the Wagner Group’s attempt to take Tripoli and win control of Libya on behalf of warlord General Haftar. This did not get much attention at the time, but Erdogan prevented Wagner and Russia from gaining a share of Libya’s oil production, 1 miilion+ barrels a day.
YY_Sima Qian
@wombat probability cloud: Not going to happen, China won’t embarrass Putin like that. In any case, most of the world’s freight ships are flagged & registered in places such as Panama, Malta, Liberia, etc.
Yutsano
@The Pale Scot:
What.
The.
Fuck.
Did.
I.
Just.
Watch?
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Extreme weather are certainly becoming increasingly frequent, increasing severe, in more parts of the world, leading to worse consequences, over the past decade alone. The challenge to humanity & its polities are unprecedented, but the great powers prefer to focus on their “severe competition” w/ each other, & the Global North countries prefer to ignore the plight of the Global South.
If Climate Change is the Himalayas, I am afraid that we are just at the foothills. The Obama CIA was right to identify Climate Change as the greatest long term security threat, & that remains true even in a world w/ Russia’s naked aggression against Ukraine & its chaos sowing in the ROW, & China’s increasing assertiveness. All the plans & machinations of the world’s leaders will pale in face of forces of nature, but they find comfort in reliving the Cold War, or pre-WW I Europe.
catfishncod
@The Pale Scot: Where did you think fascism in Russia would go? They’ve felt demographically insecure for decades now…
…and also why they’re okay with sending unprovisioned human waves at Ukrainian positions. If it works, Ukrainians die; if it doesn’t, mostly non-Moscovite “lesser people” die. From the demented racial-demographic perspective of a true-fanatic Ruzzian, this scenario is win-win.
Of course, a better idea would have been a society where people didn’t drink themselves to death in despair or leap at any chance to escape, but that would mean giving up imperialism and oligarchy, and we can’t have that now can we?
The Pale Scot
@Yutsano:
Just another glorious day for Moscovies
Jinchi
@Alison Rose: I don’t think this is just a temper tantrum. Spreading starvation is a strategic objective for Putin. He wants to sow chaos everywhere in the world, and often the victims of this act will look to Russia for food that the Ukrainians can’t deliver.
catfishncod
Vlad is not batshit insane; he’s coldly rational… as an individual. So why does he do things that look, from the outside, batshit insane? (e.g., launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.)
All of which is because the Russian state and society has dysfunctions that run way, way beyond any one person. He’s not crazy; he’s living in a crazy-making space. There’s a difference.
Geminid
@catfishncod: This analysis tracks with the accusations Wagner’s Prigozhin made the day before his mutiny. He named names of senior Russian security officials who anticipated carving up Ukrainian industries and resources for themselves and their allies. That motivated the war hawks (or war vultures), Prigozhin claimed.
Prigozhin himself seems to have had his own share in mind, but “it takes one to know one.”
Mag
When Tatarigami_UA says Ukraine has a “more Soviet mindset now than we did in 2022”, what does that mean?
Chetan Murthy
@Mag: I went back and read that thread. I fear what he means is
It’s …. sad. But it is what it is, and we need to do what is needful to help Ukraine finish this goddamn thing.