Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

“Loving your country does not mean lying about it’s history.”

Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.

Giving in to doom is how we fail to fight for ourselves & one another.

Live so that if you miss a day of work people arenā€™t hoping youā€™re dead.

Impressively dumb. Congratulations.

Itā€™s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

If ā€˜weirdā€™ was the finish line, they ran through the tape and kept running.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

Weā€™ve had enough carrots to last a lifetime. break out the sticks.

But frankly mr. cole, Iā€™ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

Dear media: perhaps we ought to let Donald Trump speak for himself!

Wow, I canā€™t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

A norm that restrains only one side really is not a norm ā€“ it’s a trap.

There is no right way to do the wrong thing.

Letā€™s not be the monsters we hate.

If you canā€™t control your emotions, someone else will.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape Americaā€™s future.

A democracy canā€™t function when people canā€™t distinguish facts from lies.

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

We will not go quietly into the night; we will not vanish without a fight.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 525: Odesa Is Still In Russia’s Crosshairs!

War for Ukraine Day 525: Odesa Is Still In Russia’s Crosshairs!

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

As I wrote in update 513:

In the attempt to change the geo-strategic calculus, Putin and Russia continue to strike Ukrainian civilian targets, especially the Odesan granaries and Ukrainian food storage and infrastructure. As I have written several times, this is an attempt to create a global food crisis, but one that hits especially hard in the global south or the periphery between north and south further providing the truth to the lies of Russiaā€™s information warfare against the US and the EU and the ā€œWestā€ in Africa, the Middle East, parts of Asia, and even parts of Central and South America. As part of that crisis it is intended to ignite a new wave of refugee outflows of starving people seeking help in the European states or the US. This objective here is to activate the nativist right in both Europe and the US, and especially in the US as we move into the 2024 election cycle, over fears of a refugee crisis depicted as an invasion combined with the rising cost of food. Then Russia swoops in to save the day with its own grain. Thatā€™s the play.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Zakarpattia will be one of the drivers of development for the whole of Ukraine – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

2 August 2023 – 21:33

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

It was a long and very busy day.

In the morning, we received reports from our warriors, from air defense on the downing of “Shaheds”. There were 37 “Shaheds” in total during this one night. Some of them were shot down. But only part of them. Fortunately, people were not injured. There were hits in the southern areas – Odesa region, our ports.

We are doing our best with our partners to increase the supply of air defense systems. It is very important for the world not to get used to this Russian terror. Every hit is a common problem. Not only for Ukraine, but also for all those in the world whose stability Russia is trying to destroy by attacking our ports and infrastructure.

Now, for the Russian state, this is a battle not only against our freedom, not only against our state. Moscow is fighting a battle for a global catastrophe: these lunatics need the world food market to collapse – they need price crises, supply disruptions. Someone in Moscow thinks they can make money on this… Someone in Moscow hopes they will be able to bargain for something… These are very, very dangerous hopes.

In particular, we talked about food security today with our ambassadors – I held an extraordinary large meeting with all the heads of Ukrainian diplomatic missions.

We gathered in Zakarpattia. On the eve of a new political season in our partner countries. For 16 months of full-scale war, we have been working together – the entire diplomatic team of Ukraine, everyone who works in the field of our foreign policy – to make sure that the world sees events in a completely truthful way. The way they are happening, not the way Russian propaganda wants to depict them. Most countries in the world stand with Ukraine. We have achieved extremely significant results in supplying weapons to our troops. There are powerful sanctions against Russia for terror. Now there are new tasks for Ukrainian diplomats – to attract defense production to Ukraine… equipment, artillery, shells. To expand training missions for our warriors. To ensure the supply of F-16s. Long-range missiles for Ukraine.

And always – absolutely always – political decisions in favor of our country, our freedom. The Crimea Platform, the UN General Assembly, the Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen, the Global Food Summit, and the very important Peace Formula Summit, to which we are inviting the world’s majority, are ahead. The launch of accession negotiations with the European Union is a task for this year. Preparing more in our relations with NATO is also a task that our diplomats have to fulfill. Today we talked about all this in great detail.

Ukrainian diplomacy has very clear, significant accomplishments. In all areas. We do not forget about the sphere of national memory, our history. This year marks the 90th anniversary of the Holodomor, and we are constantly active in communicating with partners to recognize the historical truth – to recognize the Holodomor as genocide of the Ukrainian people. Already 28 states have recognized the Holodomor as genocide – this is at the state level. In four more countries, one of the chambers of national parliaments has adopted a decision. And during the full-scale war alone, 17 such recognition decisions were made. This is a very high pace. And all Ukrainian diplomats should maintain this pace – remain that active in the interests of Ukraine. Every day, every week, every month, they should prove with concrete results for Ukraine that our diplomacy can and will be a global leader.

I held a meeting on the security and social situation in Zakarpattia. General Deyneko, Head of the State Border Guard Service, reported on border issues, which are strategic for the region. A thorough report by head of the regional administration Mykyta – it is clear that the region has the necessary results. Well done!

Relocation of business and creation of new jobs in different communities of the region is an important area of work. Facilities for the rehabilitation of our warriors are the right projects. Many initiatives to develop the economy of Zakarpattia – those opportunities that have not been used for decades.

In particular, the development of a salt deposit has already begun here in the region, which can provide all of Ukraine with table and industrial salt. There are other projects that we will discuss with government officials.

Zakarpattia will definitely be one of the drivers of development for the whole of Ukraine, economic and social growth.

I am finishing this day in Berehove with a meeting with representatives of the Hungarian community in Ukraine. It is an important meeting. Educators, doctors, representatives of public and religious organizations and, of course, our warriors, whom I had the honor to award. Brave and courageous warriors whom we are proud of – all of them. All of us, Ukrainians, all of us, citizens of Ukraine. Everyone defends our country and freedom, everyone strives for victory for Ukraine, to live in Ukraine and develop life here – for the sake of their families, for the sake of their children.

I thank everyone who defends freedom! I thank everyone who is fighting for Ukraine! The 128th separate mountain assault brigade of Zakarpattia and the 101st separate brigade of the Territorial Defense… Thank you, warriors. Today – especially!

Thank you all – Berehove, Uzhhorod, Mukachevo and all of Zakarpattia!

Glory to Ukraine!

This is not going to happen:

 

Here’s Illia Ponomarenko’s take on Putin’s trip to Turkiye:

Of course, Putin is going to come to šŸ‡¹šŸ‡·and talk.
Putin NEEDS Erdogan.
He needs the Sultan DEARLY.

And of course, Putin is ready to renew the gain deal — because any sort of real victory over Ukraine is out of the question since long ago, and now the entire war for Putin is about buying time, not admitting defeat, and possibly treating his oligarchic entourage with fresh goodies to keep them on his side.

The FSB gray cardinal Nikolai Patrushev’s son Dmitry will be more than pleased if Putin manages to lift sanctions from the RusAg bank in exchange for renewed grain deal.

So Erdogan may do whatever he wants ā€” and the release of the Azovstal commanders is the least painful slap in the face ā€”and of course, Putin will come to the Porte and talk.

It’s not that he’s got a lot of options, and his Potyomkin summits with African leaders impress no one.

It appears the F-16 training program has had a failure to launch:

Kyiv:

Bakhmut:

Kamianske:

Velyka Novosilka:

Odesa:

 

Today is the 79th anniversary of the Warsaw Uprising, not to be confused with the Warsaw Ghetto uprising:

#OTD 79 years ago the Warsaw Uprising begins in 1944. Polish Home Army units rise up and storm Nazi positions in and around Warsaw, intending to hold the city until they can be relieved by the advancing Soviet Army. Unfortunately the Soviets halt and allow the Polish units, thought by the Soviets to represent a danger to their plans for a communist puppet government post-war, to be slaughtered.

British & American forces conduct a belated and half-hearted attempt to support the effort with long range supply drops.

The Poles hold out for 63 days, suffering as many as 20,000+ combatant casualties in addition to 150-200,000+ civilian casualties. The majority of the city is subsequently reduced to rubble.

I highly recommend following
@WW2girl1944
if you’re interested in an in-depth accounting of this engagement, and Polish military history during WW2 in general.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

ŠŸŃ€Š¾Ń„ŠµŃŃ–Š¹Š½Š¾ Š·Š°ŃŠøŠ½Š°ŃŽ Š“Šµ Š·Š°Š²Š³Š¾Š“Š½Š¾ і ŠŗŠ¾Š»Šø Š·Š°Š²Š³Š¾Š“Š½Š¾šŸ™ˆ

ā™¬ original sound – Ron

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

I fall asleep professionally anywhere and anytime šŸ™ˆ

You and me both little guy! You and me both!

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

67Comments

  1. 1.

    Maxim

    Thank you as always, Adam. I never knew the details of the Warsaw Uprising. Once again, we have a brave people who are battling an enemy devoid of decency, and the world is doing far too little to help them.

  2. 2.

    Alison Rose

    Why is the F-16 training not being moved forward? Have any of these countries explained? Is it that they don’t have the people to do so, don’t think the Ukrainians are ready to learn, or something else? Because it seems pointless to try to fight for getting them planes they can’t use, and if the countries who had said they would train them are now dithering around and being like “sorry we have to wash our hair tonight”, then…where the heck does that leave everything?

    Sigh. Some days it is so hard to remain hopeful.

    But still, thank you as always, Adam.

  4. 4.

    West of the Rockies

    I must be blood thirsty…Ā  these posts are always more satisfying when they include at least one bit of Russian equipment exploding.

    Oh, they’reĀ alwaysĀ informative.Ā  I always eagerly read them.Ā  But Russians going ka-BOOM makes them less dire.

  6. 6.

    Jay

    Almost two months into the Ukrainian 2023 offensives, the tempo of operations has settled into the pulse and pause of military operations that has been observed in other large wars. Ukrainian ground forces are slowly advancing on their Donetsk axis of advance as well as in their Zaporizhia axis of advance, through ā€˜bite and holdā€™ approaches. Some progress is being made around Bakhmut as well.

    https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-state-of-the-ukrainian-2023-campaign

  8. 8.

    Trollhattan

    Belarus: postage stamp.

    Western Europe Ć· Turkey: rather larger than postage stamp.

    Your quid is in search of a pro quo. Thanks for participating, here’s a t-shirt.

  9. 9.

    Fair Economist

    @Jay: Without air power, Ukraine is being forced into WWI strategy. “Bite and hold” works, but it’s slow and painful.

  10. 10.

    West of the Rockies

    @Trollhattan:

    The idiocy of Putin’s proposal is stunning, his obvious dismissal of NATO’s intelligence staggering.

    He is such a dreary little goblin.

  11. 11.

    Bupalos

    One thing that is really really striking from a Western perspective about the war rhetoric that comes out of the Zelenskyy regime… It talks about the future about as much as it talks about the riveting, urgent present. Maybe more. And WAY WAY WAY more than it talks about the past.

    It feels almost disorientingly… healthy?

  12. 12.

    Ms. D. Ranged in AZ

    Adam, I have questions and I apologize if this is something you’ve addressed in previous posts but I haven’t been able to read them all….My questions are regarding the drone attacks inside of Russia (IF they are being perpetrated by Ukrainian forces, which I believe is true, correct me if I’m wrong).Ā  Ā  It seems like most of the drone attacks in Russia have tried to target legit governmental and/or militarily sites.Ā  However, they are risking civilian casualties.Ā  Ā I mean it’s easy to see that Russia is targeting civilians by hitting apartment buildings and train stations full of refugees, etc.Ā  But the Ukrainian drones hits are not as clear.Ā  For example there was a video on CNN the other day of a strike in a swanky shopping district in Moscow.Ā  The building(s) hit did produce evidence of some government purpose having been targeted.Ā  It was done at night, when the area was not as busy as it might have been during the day.Ā  I guess my question is a political one….do you think these attacks undermine the Ukrainian argument that Russia is acting like a terrorist by targeting civilians when Ukraine is risking similar results by their own drone strikes?Ā  Are these drone strikes by unofficial Ukrainian actors?Ā  Or are they something that Ukraine won’t claim but are perfectly willing to take advantage of (wink, wink, nudge, nudge, so to speak)?Ā  What are the military value of these strikes do you think (other than forcing the consequences of the war into the news within Russia) because so far Russians seem very detached from what is going on.Ā  What are your thoughts on these strikes?

  13. 13.

    Geminid

    Ragip Soylu,Ā Istanbul bureau chief forĀ Middle East Eye,Ā on the Erdogan/Putin phone call:

    Ā  Ā Erdogan thanks Putin for sending two airplanes to fight forest fires in a phone call.

    Erdogan underlines the importance of the grain deal.
    Notes that grain prices increased 15% in the last two weeks.
    Putin soon to visit Turkey.
    Erdogan appreciates increasing number of Russian tourists.

    Comments ranged from “Why hasn’t Russian ally Turkiye been sanctioned?!” to “That wily Erdogan is gonna take Putin’s lunch money!”

    A couple people said that Putin won’t show for fear of arrest. Then someone pointed out that Turkiye (like the US) has not signed the Treaty of Rome.

    I will be most interested in the reactions from Ukrainian officials to Putin’s visit, if and when it occurs. It sounds like it might happen soon.

  14. 14.

    Jay

    @Trollhattan:

    In theory, Ruzzia gave Belaruz Iskandar missiles and launchers.

    Maybe, all we have for OSINT “proof” is some new prefab steel warehouses.

    Now, Iskandar’s are capable of carrying a tactical nuclear weapon, was Putin stupid enough to give his whore Lushanko nuclear armed Iskandar’s, when the only thing keeping Lushanko in power is his weak security forces and Ruzzian backing,

    Or are these all empty Matrioshka dolls?

  16. 16.

    Jay

    @Fair Economist:

    It’s not just airpower.

    When Ukraine needed tanks, IFV’s, ARV’s, etc in the early spring, we hemmed, hawed and argued. That gave the Orc’s time to build defenses in depth.

    Even though I have yet to see what I would consider to be a “good” trench that the Orc’s have built, they are good enough, protected by minefields in depth, tank traps, with pre-sighted arty and Ka-52’s with 15km range guided anti-tank missiles.

    And there are multiple layers of them.

    Most of the Ukrainian ground based air defenses that can reach out and touch a Ka-52, are defending Ukrainian cities from terror attacks.

    So, our dilly dallying and catering to Putin’s so called “red lines” allowed Ruzzia time to build a nut that’s hard to crack.

  17. 17.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Jay: And our dilly-dallying with long-range fires allowed RU to bring in all those mines for those minefields.Ā  If we’d given UA enough long-range fires to shut down GLOCs thru Crimea and all the railheads coming into Eastern Ukraine *back in the fall*, this campaign would be going very differently, with the RU starved for shells and starved, period.

  18. 18.

    Roger Moore

    @Trollhattan:

    The proposal about nuclear weapons isn’t, and isn’t intended as, a serious proposal.Ā  It’s a PR move designed to give tankies grounds for claiming Putin wants peace and the West is refusing.

  19. 19.

    Roberto el oso

    The Red Army sat across the river and watched the smoke from Warsaw. As with the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, and the massacre of the Polish officers in the Katyn Forest, this was part and parcel of their behavior. The developing friendship between Ukraine and Poland has been one of the silver linings in all this.

  20. 20.

    Bupalos

    @Ms. D. Ranged in AZ:d

    I’ll be interested in Adam’s take but I’d like to hear others as well, and will offer my own

    Do you think these attacks undermine the Ukrainian argument that Russia is acting like a terrorist by targeting civilians when Ukraine is risking similar results by their own drone strikes?

    The full argument from the Ukrainian position isn’t that the Russians are doing something that unethically endangers civilians as opposed to “legitimate” military targets. Their (correct) argument argument is that Russia is a terrorist state because it is engaging in a multi-faceted program of genocide.Ā  Attacking military targets is part of this genocide. Destabilizing civil society is part of this genocide. Intentionally murdering civilians is part of this genocide. Cutting off testicles and kidnapping children…. all of it is part of the intentional genocide. Just because someone gears up and puts on a helmet doesn’t make targeting them less of a terrorist crime in this context of declared genocide.

    Now what the world HEARS is a different story, and obviously the cutting off testicles and kidnapping children and targeting civilians is what the world may hear more loudly as “the Ukrainian argument” about the terrorist state. And on that ground yes, bringing the war to peaceful pleasant Moscow risks some marginal support. But the thing about playing for support is that when you’ve tried it the clean way and everyone more or less yawned, there is not much actual downside to trying it in increasingly complicated ways that may include dead Russian toddlers. The world has confirmed over and over again that it does not much care about guilt and innocence here. We’re talking about undermining an argument that is being studiously ignored anyway.

    Are these drone strikes by unofficial Ukrainian actors?Ā  Or are they something that Ukraine wonā€™t claim but are perfectly willing to take advantage of (wink, wink, nudge, nudge, so to speak)?

    I doubt there are clear lines here on everything, but it seems very unlikely the MOD or SZRU isn’t both aware of and providing support for almost every attack.

    What are the military value of these strikes do you think (other than forcing the consequences of the war into the news within Russia) because so far Russians seem very detached from what is going on.

    These strikes are 99% a psychological operation aimed at igniting Russian politics rather than damaging infrastructure. Displaying the possibility of strikes does potentially pin down some air defense assets. It forces the the Putin regime to decide how they weight the threat of politics breaking out in the homeland versus the threat of extra dead soldiers abroad. And I’d guess Ukraine knows that in this mafia state, the former threat has a magnitude multiplier on it. So the answer is that forcing the war into the news does have a pretty specific military objective. Putin has to guard rather closely against any “embarrassing” failure to keep Moscow calm and pleasant.

  21. 21.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Bupalos: No.Ā  Civilian casualties are a fact of life in warfare.Ā  The laws of war require that you not deliberately target civilians and that you take reasonable precautions to prevent civilians from being harmed.Ā  One side is following the rules, and the other is deliberately violating them.

  22. 22.

    Jay

    @Ms. D. Ranged in AZ:

    when a Ruzzian vatnick, hiding from conscription on an “extended” holiday in Egypt, got eaten by a shark off a beach where no swimming was allowed, when he was taking a break from shitposting on Telegram about dead Ukrainians,

    NAFO memed it and both Ruzzian’s and the Ruzzian “Opposition” got their knickers in a twist and posted tons of fauxrage.

    When two Ruzzian “civilians” were killed crossing the Kerch bridge, it wasn’t even meme worth and even the tankies didn’t care.

    So a bunch of Ruzzian Ministry buildings in Moscow, go “boom”,

    Who cares when measured against Ruzzia’s genocide against Ukraine.

    10% of Ukraine’s children have been kidnapped to Ruzzia, where they are raped, tortured and forced to disavow Ukraine, their families and are being forced to undertake military training. Child soldiers.

  23. 23.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Ms. D. Ranged in AZ:

    For example there was a video on CNN the other day of a strike in a swanky shopping district in Moscow.

    Are you by some chance talking about the drone strikes (two of them a couple of days apart) onĀ  swanky office district in Moscow (maybe the “IQ district” ?)Ā  The building that got hit housed several RU govt ministries: so a legitimate military target.Ā  Then there was the attack on the Rublyovka district (where all the oligarchs live).Ā  Again, a legitimate target, since these are the people who run Russia.

    Maybe it was some other drone strike ?Ā  Do you remember anything more about it? Like @Bupalos: (I suspect) I also think UA should strike Moscow however it feels appropriate.Ā  I suspect they will not aim for anything that might produce mass casualties, for two reasons:

    1. it’s about psychology and inciting fear, and mass casualties might harden resolve
    2. to whatever extent wobbly Westerners (that’s us, sigh) are gonna be scared by UA mass casualties, UA is gonna wanna avoid that

    I think they’re aiming much more to embarrass and shame Putin, than to actual kill Muscovites.Ā  As much as I’d like to see mass casualties in Moscow (fuck ’em, just fuck ’em) I can understand this logic.

  25. 25.

    Bupalos

    @Omnes Omnibus: I don’t see where I wrote something inconsistent with that. The question is whether Ukraine risks some perceptionĀ of equivalence when they attack in a commercial district. They do. But they’ve done the math correctly I think, that this risk is minimal considering the mild and irresponsible reaction the world has mustered in response to Russia’s brazen depravity.

  27. 27.

    catfishncod

    @Roger Moore, @West of the Rockies,@Trollhattan:

    Weā€™re not the marks here; weā€™re the unwilling straight men. Like most cons, the act doesnā€™t work on a mark who actually pays attention. You need distractions, misdirections, or willing suspension of disbelief.

    After pulling off countless ops, Poot has finally caught the Westā€™s attention enough that he canā€™t fleece us as effectively. Plenty of the Global South remains distracted and misdirected, and of course tankies are totally happy to suspend disbelief.

  30. 30.

    Bupalos

    @Omnes Omnibus: Maybe. The point we may disagree on is whether there is a direct military target there, and that there is some ethical rule in effect whereby Ukraine can attack it as long as they minimize civilian casualties. And that that’s what they did. I disagree and I do think it is significantly more complicated than that. I think there is no actual military target there, the pseudo military target is the peace and tranquility of civilian Moscow. The target is the government of Russia, via instilling a sense of fear in the civilian population, that translates into politics.

    I guess the reason I insist on this is that it’s clearly more to the heart of the truth that Ukraine is here engaging in something that pretty well answers to the definition of terrorism in form, if not yet in extent. And I think we’re going to see Ukrainian attacks that do generate civilian casualties soon, and I don’t think they should be viewed through this kind of slanted ethical lens. Ukraine is openly threatened with genocide. It’s government would be justified in killing tens of thousands of Russian civilians if it would end this regime. And I think the kind of pressure hinted at in the Moscow attacks may not actually come to bear without more striking and life-altering results

    We’ll see, but I think we’re on an almost guaranteed pattern of escalation here.

  31. 31.

    Jay

    @Bupalos:

    the target that was hit, 3 times, is a Department of the Ministry of Digital Information responsible for disinformation operations.

    So yeah, a valid Military Target just as Gobbels was.

  32. 32.

    Jay

    @Bupalos:

    Weā€™ll see, but I think weā€™re on an almost guaranteed pattern of escalation here.

    I don’t see how Ruzzia can escalate past Bucha, Kherson, the torture and rape camps, the neutering of POW’s, the mass execution of POW’s and civilians, the kidnapping, rape, torture, murder of children and their being turned into Ruzzian child soldiers, all the thousands of other atrocities and acts of genocide they commit every day and night.

  33. 33.

    Geminid

    @Bupalos: I don’t see Uktlraine escalating attacks on Moscow, maybe just continuing them from time to time in order to score propaganda points. They have limited resources in this area and plenty of good military targets to aim their drones at.

  35. 35.

    Torrey

    Yesterday, I got a message from Patron’s account via Patreon. But I see he’s back up on TikTok. Anyway, here’s the message:

    “Hi, guys. šŸ¾
    I know that you have not heard from me for a lo-o-o-ong time. I am working, I am safe. De-mining with my people is something that gives me a lot of pleasure.
    Recently, our colleagues, sappers, came to work and brought us a magic demining machine to help us. It’s very difficult and expensive to buy these machines because you have to stand in line, but we don’t give up. We continue to demine our country.
    Stay safe. See you soon! Lick everyone.šŸ‘…

    Also, re Ukraine, I think it’s time to email the White House and your senators and representatives (possibly again), urging them to give Ukraine what it needs (ATACMS, among other things) and pointing out that the dithering on our part is only helping the Russians.ā€‹

  37. 37.

    Jay

    @Geminid:

    there is a good chance, based on Ukraine’s drone inventory, that the “phone calls in Moscow are coming from inside the house”.

  38. 38.

    Ms. D. Ranged in AZ

    @Bupalos: I think you make a strong argument that because the world’s reaction was and continues to be “yawn” that there are few downsides to what Ukraine is doing.

    @Omnes Omnibus: Thank you, that was my point. Russia is purposely targeting civilians whereas Ukraine is not, at least that’s the impression I’m getting.

    @Jay: It was not my intent to criticize Ukraine’s trikes or downplay Russian war crimes.Ā  But Ukraine following the rules of war might make a difference after the war (in the case of a Ukrainian victory) if they want punishment for Russian offenders through internationally backed trials.Ā  There are only two ways they can escalate IMHO:Ā  pour more troops into the conflict using a general Russian conscription (which Putin is hesitant to do because of the political cost) or use nuclear weapons.Ā  I’m praying that Putin is not stupid or desperate enough to do either.Ā  I’m hoping that Ukraine can push them out and the world will back a peace plan once that has occurred and recognize their pre-2014 border.

    @Chetan Murthy:Ā  I was referring to the video on CNN from 3 days ago (it was at night) so not sure which one you’re talking about.Ā  I read that there were govt/military docs in the street afterward and that led me to believe it was a legit target.Ā  There was audio of a woman crying out.Ā  MyĀ  initial reaction was “reap what you sow” (so I get where you and many others are coming from but I immediately regretted feeling that way).Ā  It occurred to me that under TFG if he had dropped bombs on another country and if they had retaliated and that hit me and mine, I’d be pretty upset.Ā  I didn’t vote for him, didn’t want him in office but have no control over the situation.Ā  How many Russians are in the same boat?Ā  Guess I was just putting on an “empathy” hat for all those nameless Russians whose vote was never counted (they’ve pretty much established that Putin was ballot box stuffing for just about every election).Ā  And I am in no way trying to compare those Ukrainian drone strikes to the horrible things that Russia has done in the Ukraine since their invasion.

    @Adam L Silverman: Ok, thank you.

  40. 40.

    Geminid

    @Jay: I figure the drones are coming from inside Russia. Mr. Budanov has a lot of friends. He’s a personable fellow.

  42. 42.

    Jay

    @Ms. D. Ranged in AZ:

    There are only two ways they can escalate IMHO: pour more troops into the conflict using a general Russian conscription (which Putin is hesitant to do because of the political cost) or use nuclear weapons.

    Ruzzia has already changed the conscription rules again, 16yo to 70yo are now eligible. “Contracts” are now valid for 30 years duration.

    Putin has been told many times, that a nuclear strike or a nuclear “accident” will be viewed by NATO as an Article 5 attack.

    Ukraine is and has been holding to the Geneva Conventions.

  44. 44.

    Bupalos

    @Jay: I understand that. It does create a kind of consumable public rationale.

    But I think we should probably be honest with ourselves acknowledge that the reason Ukraine marshalled and deployed the resources for this attack wasn’t to degrade military resources.

  45. 45.

    Jay

    @Ms. D. Ranged in AZ:

    I read that there were govt/military docs in the street afterward and that led me to believe it was a legit target.

    As part of the fall out from Prigozhin’s mutiny, the IRA was taken over by the State, staffing was gutted and disinfo ops were moved into various State orgs. The offices hit was one of them.

    It’s kinda like the “Police Stations” that get HIMARSed, that turn out to be GRU.

  47. 47.

    Jay

    @Bupalos:

    Propaganda and psyops are a military target.

    Funny how the protestors attacking the French Embassy, Ambassador and shutting down streets in support of the Coup, all are carrying Ruzzian flags.

  48. 48.

    YY_Sima Qian

    I don’t see any targets that Ukraine has aimed at so far as illegitimate, including propaganda/disinformation organs, even if the staff are “civilians” as in there are not armed soldiers. However, as I said before, Ukraine does have to be careful. If one of their drones goes astray & hits an apartment building & kills a dozen civilians, then the negative fall out may outweigh taking whatever target they were aiming at. It will give ammunition to Russia & sympathizers to cry “whataboutism”. Even though it is entirely wrong, unsupportable & cynical, it will travel in many parts of the world, & could spike the campaign that Ukraine & the West is waging in the Global South to highlight Russian attacks on Ukrainian grains storage infrastructure to raise food prices.

    So, the routes that the drones fly will have to be planned very carefully. Ukraine also has to consider the possibility that Russia could hijack one of their drones & send it to a Russian civilian building in a false flag operation.

  50. 50.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Russia’s play to “save the day” can be mitigated. Grains are commodities. Russian attack on Ukrainian grains storage infrastructure reduces a critical source of supply. Even if Russia can flood the market w/ Russian grains, prices will still have gone up as a result of Russian actions, higher prices that the poor Global South countries will be paying for. Keep the message simple & consistent, & repeat it ad nauseam.

    (Major grains exporters such as Brazil & India might not care too much, though. Higher prices is beneficial to them.)

  51. 51.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    So, the routes that the drones fly will have to be planned very carefully. Ukraine also has to consider the possibility that Russia could hijack one of their drones & send it to a Russian civilian building in a false flag operation.

    It’s much more likely that “what air defense doing” cripples a bird and it crashes into a building that wasn’t a target.

    Whom ever is launching these drone attacks are targeting valid targets, at times to minimize chance of casualties, like business districts after hours, the Kremlin, Ogliarches McMansions.

    Does anybody really care if a silovi dies in a drone attack, after all, they fall out of windows all the time or climb inside a gym bag and dismember themselves.

  52. 52.

    Another Scott

    @Torrey: Devil’s advocate:

    DefenseOne.com (from June 22:

    Thursday, during a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing, Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia Laura Cooper acknowledged, ā€œWe are seeing the effectiveness of the Storm Shadow system provided by the UKā€ and ā€œfinding it to be quite effective.ā€ But that doesnā€™t mean that the United States would be providing its own long-range fires to Ukraine anytime soon.

    ā€œMy concerns relate to the practical aspects of availability and also whether there are other systems like Storm Shadow, like the ground-launched Small Diameter Bomb that will come online this fall, other systems including UAVs, that can range the same target,ā€ Cooper said. She didnā€™t go into further detail.

    Similarly with cluster munitions, which Ukraine has also sought, Cooper acknowledged, ā€œOn this issue, the military advice that we have received is that they would make a difference on the battlefield, that they would be effective against dug-in Russian positions.ā€

    But she pointed to ā€œlegislation that restrictsā€ the transfer of those munitions.

    One lawmaker pointed out that ā€œThere is a waiver available for the President that was not mentioned, that he can exercise this waiver at any time,ā€ on cluster munitions for Ukraine.

    Cooper responded that U.S. allies might be against the transfer.

    ā€œWe do have a considerable number of NATO members that have signed up to the convention prohibiting cluster munitions. There are some concerns about whether this would lead to division,ā€ she said. But she didnā€™t explain how that might result in less support for Ukraine.

    (Emphasis added.)

    Note what she listed first.

    And there was a lot of noise and grumbling about cluster bombs. For a while.

    My bias has always been:

    1) Biden understands the stakes in the conflict better than almost anyone.
    2) NATO has been supporting Ukraine for years. NATO understands the stakes.
    3) Supply chains are real.
    4) Politics is slow, and keeping everyone in NATO together in supporting Ukraine is vitally important.

    If we’re not sending stuff to Ukraine, it’s most likely (IMO) because of real constraints on stocks, or training, or sustainment.

    Maybe ATACMS will be follow the example of other munitions, etc., and will be released later. Maybe something better than ATACMS will be sent. Dunno.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  53. 53.

    Roberto el oso

    Ukrainian patience has been astounding. I cannot recall any other time when a nation under such serious attack has been asked to fight with one arm tied behind its back in this sort of manner. On the matter of the drone-attacks inside Russia, I agree that their impact will be on a psychological level (not much different from the morale-boost of Doolittle’s raid on Tokyo, or the initial British bombings into Germany, which made a dent in Goering and the Luftwaffe’s reputations). It must be hard for the Ukrainian command to be tut-tutted at by their now-closest ally regarding civilian casualties, given that we racked up our share of innocent wedding parties along with legitimate targets in both Iraq and Afghanistan.

  55. 55.

    topclimber

    A question for a guy who has stayed on mission since even before this war began (for which, many thanks):

    Do you see any possibility that Putin’s ever-shakier position allows for an actual presidential contest in 2024? What would it take and/or will it only happen if he is dead? I assume any rival would have to be approved by the nationalist bloc, so conceivably worse than him, though perhaps less corrupt than Mob Russki and less constrained by Putin’s personal identification with the War.

  56. 56.

    Ms. D. Ranged in AZ

    @Jay: Correct but the majority of troops are still prisoners and/or mercenaries and/or ethnic minorities from my understanding–not ethnic-Russians.Ā  Until ethnic-Russians start dying in droves, it won’t penetrate through the propaganda bubble that Putin has created.

  57. 57.

    YY_Sima Qian

    NYT article that expands on what we have been discussing for the past week:

    Ukrainian Troops Trained by the West Stumble in Battle
    Ukraineā€™s army has for now set aside U.S. fighting methods and reverted to tactics it knows best.

    Given that Michael Kofman & Rob Lee are prominently quoted, one can guess the drift of the piece. However, it does reinforce the notion that perhaps NATO should not attempt to pigeonhole the Ukrainian Army into the NATO mold under greatly compressed timelines, & instead should support the development/evolution of the ā€œUkrainian way of warā€.

    Ukraine does not have the air dominance or the extensive experience in the NATO way of war to fight the NATO way, & it does not have the preponderance of artillery, infantry & armor to fight the Soviet way. It has to, & will by necessity, Ā forge its path.

  58. 58.

    OverTwistWillie

    Pretty sure the Ukrainian Army out ran their logistics last summer.

    Trouble standing up effective maneuver units is pretty typical at the tail end of mobilizations. Factors include: short training cycles, poorer quality recruits, and existing units sending their crap for cadres.

    If you think standing up a quality brigade is tough, general staff work at corps or army level isn’t a pop up shop.

    Soviet vs. NATO standards, yada, yada, I wonder how much of the structural criticism is veiled grousing on account of Syrskyi being a hardass.

  60. 60.

    Bupalos

    @Jay: I don’t disagree. The point here is that there is a fine line between this kind of psyop and what we call terrorism. Maybe no real line at all, more like shades of grey. The intent here is to create unease and uncertainty in the population to pressure the government. I suspect they’ll maintain this goal but find they need to escalate the spectacle, and that ultimately that means some dead Russian civilians. I think people should be prepared for that and understand that doesn’t change the calculus and shouldn’t affect support.

  62. 62.

    Bupalos

    @Another Scott: I disagree that the limitations on support to ukraine have to do with actual ability to supply, if that’s what you’re saying. I think they have to do with NATO not having a clear idea of what outcome it wants. Poland and the Baltics favor a complete defeat of Russia. I think the rest of NATO is only committed to what we see now, Ukraine not losing.

  63. 63.

    topclimber

    @Bupalos: Yeah, I got that. But if Putin is so weak that he has to allow one or two credible candidates in an election he rigs anyway, the ripples could get interesting. Russia (Soviet version) actually had a functioning politburo once. As Putin flounders, could happen again, with 2004 election the opening move.

  64. 64.

    Carlo Graziani

    @topclimber: I think that the point is that Russia has no tradition of democratic governance to fall back on as some kind of default if Putin has a stroke, is ousted, or carelessly wanders too close to an unsecured window. There is no reason whatever to believe that any of the forces thus set into motion to gain the upper hand would include people to whom an election would appear a sensible solution to the crisis at the top. Nor would there be any popular movement to demand a democratic solution.

    In all likelihood there would be cynical maneuvering and some limited bloodletting in the Kremlin, the MOD, and the security apparatus, possibly mirrored by some performative violence at the civil society level. There would certainly be no election of a successor, at least until that successor (or committee of successors) had already consolidated control.

    Russia has no real polity. Expecting democratic outcomes of any sort is an exercise in projection, in my opinion.

  65. 65.

    Carlo Graziani

    @OverTwistWillie: I think the “structural criticism” makes a great deal of sense. Changing the Ukrainian way of war in the middle of a struggle-to-the-death shooting war was always likely to be a dicey proposition, and doing so in a few months now appears to have been a naive expectation (I do not exempt myself from that naivetĆ©).

    I like to look for silver linings, though. I see two:

    (1) The timescale on which we are almost unconsciously trained to expect progress is the 24-hour news cycle, and we are prone to become pessimistic if the narrative does not turn out positive within a few such cycles. But real war operates on different, much longer and/or intermittent timescales, and by those timescales not much has had time to happen yet. We can, and ought, still counsel patience.

    (2) This is particularly the case because the UA is clearly adapting and learning on very short timescales. They appear to have changed tactics twice already since the counter-offensive was launched, which indicates to me that they are actively searching for solutions, in a way that the Russians are almost congenitally incapable of doing, at least on offense.

    Moreover, the UA appears to be rotating units into and out of the fight in an orderly manner that the RussiansĀ still cannot manage to do. This means that green units lately formed and trained can rest, refit, and return to the fight having been blooded, and having gained some combat experience, which is likely to make them more formidable in their next encounters.

    In 2022, mid-to-late August was the transformative period of the campaign. This year is very different from last year, but the UA is much stronger now than it was then. Let’s wait and see what they accomplish with that new strength.

  66. 66.

    bad Jim

    Since everyone else is posting various links, I thought I’d contributeĀ https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/08/putin-russia-ukraine-war-cornered-rat-story/674890/ which argues that Putin is perhaps not actually the dangerous rat who once attacked him but rather the frightened child who retreated, as suggested by his gentle treatment of Prigozhin.

     

    Anyone actually interested in rats might enjoy Whack-a-Rat https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2023/08/17/whack-a-rat-the-rats-of-paris-vergopoulos/, a look at how people try to deal with rats in Paris and elsewhere. Both articles may be paywalled, alas.

  67. 67.

    Bill Arnold

    @bad Jim:
    Re “Vladimir Putin and the Parable of the ā€˜Cornered Ratā€™”, thanks!
    Fun piece, particularly with all the recent nuclear bluster, e.g. Medvedev’s latest about how Ukrainian success removing occupiers from Ukrainian territories illegally annexed by Russia would result in Russian use of nuclear weapons. Medvedev says Russia could use nuclear weapon if Ukraineā€™s fightback succeeds in latest threat (Josh Pennington, Alex Stambaugh and Brad Lendon, CNN, Mon July 31, 2023)
    Such threats should be treated with ruthless, unforgiving contempt.
    (For these threats, Mr. Medvedev should fear for his life and the lives of his friends and family, and for Russia, IMO.)

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