Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

We won’t go back.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

I’m just a talker, trying to find a channel!

Innocent people don’t delay justice.

Glad to see john eastman going through some things.

When your entire life is steeped in white supremacy, equality feels like discrimination.

I was confident that someone would point it out and thought why not me.

The willow is too close to the house.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

It’s easier to kill a dangerous animal than a man who just happens to have different thoughts/values than one’s own.

I wonder if trump will be tried as an adult.

The fundamental promise of conservatism all over the world is a return to an idealized past that never existed.

I know this must be bad for Joe Biden, I just don’t know how.

Every reporter and pundit should have to declare if they ever vacationed with a billionaire.

… gradually, and then suddenly.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

Every one of the “Roberts Six” lied to get on the court.

Republicans firmly believe having an abortion is a very personal, very private decision between a woman and J.D. Vance.

Bad people in a position to do bad things will do bad things because they are bad people. End of story.

An unpunished coup is a training exercise.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

Happy indictment week to all who celebrate!

We are aware of all internet traditions.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 534: In Some Grieving Heart You’re Forever Eight…

War for Ukraine Day 534: In Some Grieving Heart You’re Forever Eight…

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Today, russia attacked Ukraine with four Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles. One missile was shot down in the sky over Kyiv. Unfortunately, the rest of the missiles hit objects of civil infrastructure and residential buildings in Ivano-Frankivsk region. An 8-year-old boy was killed.

 

If it is all we can do, because we are not elected and appointed officials and decision makers who could do something, we can, at least, bear witness.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We are doing everything to ensure that Ukraine remains a guarantor of food security and has access to global markets – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

11 August 2023 – 17:10

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

A report on this day.

In the morning, we had a conference call. Military, intelligence, government officials. The conversation was accompanied by the sounds of air defense in Kyiv region.

There were reports by commanders and ministers.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs reported on the situation in the regions, the liquidation of the consequences of Russian strikes, and the work of the State Emergency Service. I am grateful to all Ukrainian rescuers!

The Ministry of Strategic Industries reported on the production of munitions and equipment in Ukraine. We are increasing the volume. Constantly increasing.

The Security Service of Ukraine is doing a good job against collaborators. Thank you, guys!

In the afternoon, I held a meeting of the National Security and Defense Council on “military commissars”. There will be another meeting on the military medical commissions.

We are constantly working with our partners at all levels. Today, Head of the Office Yermak, Minister of Foreign Affairs Kuleba, and the Office’s specialized deputies, Andriy Sybiha and Ihor Zhovkva, worked with the ambassadors of partner countries on the Peace Formula, on getting countries to join.

And I spoke with the President of Zambia. Bilateral relations, the Peace Formula. Another country in the Global South supports our initiatives. This is very important.

We had a separate meeting with Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate Budanov, Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny, Navy Commander Neizhpapa, Head of the Security Service of Ukraine Malyuk, and the Ministry of Infrastructure to discuss alternatives to exporting grain through the transit corridor. We are doing everything possible to ensure that Ukraine remains a guarantor of food security and that our people have access to global markets.

And, of course, the frontline. Every direction, every key effort. Daily attention. Daily support. Daily reinforcement.

I am grateful to everyone who is fighting for Ukraine! To all those who are now in trenches, on combat missions, at combat posts!

I thank everyone who works for the state!

Glory to Ukraine!

More on yesterday’s strike in Zaporizhzhia:

Robotyne (there is some offensive language, or, at least, in the American context):

Urozhaine, Donetsk:

Kharkiv Oblast:

Moscow:

President Zelenskyy’s administration is continuing to crack down on public corruption:

Someone wanted a Russian tank going kaboom:

For Omnes:

The Ukrainian officer who tweets as Tatarigami has an interesting assessment of minefields:

The Financial Times took a deep dive into the policy issues that the EU is grappling with in regard to Ukraine’s potentially joining:

Over breakfast in late June at the five-star Hotel Amigo in Brussels, the most powerful leaders of the EU began in earnest their discussions on how to bring Ukraine into the club.

The heads of governments of the EU’s 10 largest states by population, including France, Germany, Poland and Romania, chewed over the myriad ways such a significant step would dramatically reshape the bloc.

According to people briefed on the gathering, the informal talks made clear how many different issues were at stake — and how radically the union would need to adapt to take on such a historic expansion.

Wheels were set in motion. The leaders present agreed to create a “workflow process” for future talks and, after the confab, national government officials began the tough task of coordinating positions. “We wanted to see if we could create sufficient political support to go forward,” says one of the people briefed. “It’s such a big challenge . . . The goal was to see the different views.”

The meeting made one thing clear: it confirmed that an idea that might have seemed preposterous even 18 months ago is now being taken seriously.

War in Ukraine radically altered the calculus. By brutally underscoring the danger of leaving states in a geopolitical ‘grey zone’, outside both Russia and western spheres, Moscow’s invasion sparked a profound shift in the EU’s enlargement policy from passivity to proactive strategising.

While EU leaders talk of Ukraine being on “a path” to membership, many member state officials and diplomats privately question whether it will really happen.

Not only is Ukraine a country at war, but it would be the bloc’s fifth largest member by pre-conflict population and its poorest by far, which has implications for how its budgets would be divided up. Yet it is also Kyiv’s bid, more than any other, that has raised profound questions about the future of the entire European project.

“We have had to make a huge shift in our mindset since the start of the war in Ukraine. Now we see enlargement as something that has become inevitable, as something that is required to stabilise our continent,” says the person briefed on the breakfast meeting. “So, having understood that, we need to urgently work out how we go about all this, and the monumental consequences for our union in terms of finance and decision-making.”

The war may have changed the political winds, but it has not altered the immutable challenges around the EU’s capacity for expansion. In Brussels, and across the union’s capitals, officials are not only asking if Ukraine can carry out the long list of reforms required to join the EU when the war is over, but whether the bloc can reform itself sufficiently to absorb Ukraine as well as a host of potential new members.

With Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy pushing hard for an agreement to open accession talks by December, there is a rising sense of urgency that the EU’s capacity to accommodate new member states cannot simply be ignored by keeping the entry door shut.

The debate on how expansion might change the EU has largely been conducted privately, as politicians seek to avoid stoking public debate over something potentially divisive that also remains a distant possibility.

Many member states, for example, are at pains to find solutions that avoid reworking the EU’s overarching treaties, a lengthy and politically fraught process that would require referendums in many states, offering domestic flashpoints for Eurosceptic campaigns.

But the decision to put “absorption capacity” on the agenda for discussions among the EU’s 27 leaders in Granada this October reflects the recognition that the topic can no longer be kept under wraps.

“It’s about identifying the problems we need to solve before countries join,” says one EU diplomat. “We have to think through what it means . . . how do we ensure we keep the union functioning?”

At this stage, discussions are more about identifying the questions enlargement would raise for the EU, not attempting to reach any policy decisions. That is understandable given how uncertain the outlook for enlargement actually is.

A second question is: what institutional reforms would be necessary to ensure the EU could ensure smooth decision-making processes if the union comprises as many as 35 capitals, up from the current 27. A failure to overhaul its procedures could hobble the EU, particularly in policy areas that require unanimity.

Ukraine’s membership would weigh most heavily on the EU’s finances. As an internal Council of the EU note seen by the FT highlights, the two biggest areas of the EU budget are the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and cohesion, or regional spending, which together account for around 62 per cent of the EU’s seven-year budget or around €370bn each.

Admitting Ukraine, with farmland that exceeds the size of Italy and an agricultural sector that employs 14 per cent of its population, would be a game-changer. It follows that Ukraine would become the biggest recipient of CAP funding, the majority of which comprises direct payments to farmers or income support.

The consequences would be severe: other farmers in the union would have to accept much lower payments or the EU would need to agree a massive boost in its agricultural budget.

In France, where the farming sector has huge clout, the political consequences would be daunting. The same applies to countries that have been prominent cheerleaders for Ukrainian accession. Poland, for example, whose president Andrzej Duda in 2022 called for Ukraine to benefit from a fast-track membership process, went on to ban some Ukrainian agricultural imports a year later. Warsaw took action after a glut of cheap grain provoked vociferous protests by its farmers, and demanded the commission expand those curbs into other products this summer.

“Ukraine has not even entered the EU yet, and already it has damaged the single market,” notes a second EU diplomat.

When it comes to regional funding, a note prepared by the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics think-tank for the pre-summit breakfast meeting laid out the high stakes. The majority of the current accession candidates, including Ukraine, have a GDP per capita, measured by purchasing power parity, that is below Bulgaria, the EU member with the lowest income.

“The logic of cohesion policy is that funds would need to be retargeted at the union’s new members, to the disadvantage of current beneficiaries, unless more EU revenues were to be raised,” the policy paper notes. In other words: “Either the pie grows, or each gets a smaller slice.”

Amazingly, much, much more at the link.

There’s two things going on here. The first is that EU leaders are taking this seriously and doing the hard, slow, tedious work to try to think through what will need to be done to bring Ukraine into the EU. The second is something else. Specifically, as is the case with NATO, when Ukraine emerges from the war with Russia, the EU needs Ukraine as much, if not more, than Ukraine needs the EU. Right now the only thing standing between and stopping Putin’s plans to also move against the Baltic states in the EU and NATO is Ukraine, its amazing resilience and cohesion, and its stalwart defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion. This dynamic is the same for both NATO and the EU. Either admit Ukraine or shame yourself by leaving the state, society, and people who have been protecting your eastern borders and flank against Russian aggression to make their own way. The former may be a hard bureaucratic lift. The latter is embarrassingly dishonorable.

For those of you into models and HIMARs and good causes:

 

These Ukrainians at @Wooden_Army
are making really nice wooden models of HIMARS systems that can launch missiles, models consist of 580 parts. Their Kickstarter campaign ends in 10 days and they will be donating to a charity.

Check them out, their Kickstarter page has TONS of info. Go ahead and claim yours! https://kickstarter.com/projects/woodenarmy/m142-himars-interactive-wooden-kit-of-legendary-weapon?ref=bxlwsw

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

45Comments

  1. 1.

    YY_Sima Qian

    The 3 Kinzhal missiles that were not shot down by Ukrainian AD missed the targeted airbase anyway & hit civilian sites instead? Are the missiles that inaccurate or is Russian targeting that bad?

  2. 2.

    Carlo Graziani

    Specifically, as is the case with NATO, when Ukraine emerges from the war with Russia, the EU needs Ukraine as much, if not more, than Ukraine needs the EU.

    Not my preferred framing for this process, really. The war in Ukraine is certainly the driver, but what is under discussion here is expansion from 27 to possibly 35 nations, so the reach is quite a bit beyond just Ukraine.

    The money quote from that excerpt is

    “We have had to make a huge shift in our mindset since the start of the war in Ukraine. Now we see enlargement as something that has become inevitable, as something that is required to stabilise our continent,” says the person briefed on the breakfast meeting.

    They are thinking big, and thinking of going big, because their view of what is required to “stabilize our continent” has gotten radically reconstructed by the war. The Realist pieties about engaging Russia as a stakeholder as a necessary precondition for ensuring stability is completely out of scope here. And good riddance.

  4. 4.

    YY_Sima Qian

    It would still be a materially different proposition for Putin to invade a NATO country, such as one of the Baltic States, as opposed to a non-NATO country such as Ukraine. However, success in Ukraine would definitely encourage Putin to attempt grey zone tactics against NATO countries, short of war, & present NATO w/ unpalatable choices.

  5. 5.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Carlo Graziani: I’m glad they’re grappling with it. And the strategy and policy professional in me finds it fascinating. But the old saying that you can have process or you can have progress looms large over these deliberations and, ultimately, the decisions that will have to be made.

  6. 6.

    Alison Rose

    I’m not offended by the language in that video. It’s what he is.

    I wonder if putin will ever realize that, rather than easily mow down the whole nation, all he’s really done is, to borrow a phrase, awaken a sleeping giant. His orcs can bomb churches, destroy hospitals, kill children — none of it will make Ukraine buckle under, and if he still doesn’t see that, then he’s even more of an idiotic lunatic than I thought.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  7. 7.

    Adam L Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: I’m not sure the Baltics – leaders and citizens – really believe that should Article 5 be invoked that help will come. And that if it comes it would be in time.

  8. 8.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: I think we’ve known that their targeting is this bad for a while, and that whatever the notional CEP of those weapons may be, the real figure is a lot larger. One credible speculation that I’ve seen is that the reason the Russians overwhelmingly favor civilian targets over military ones is that their accuracy is so bad that they are worthless and wasted on hardened military targets, whereas (as they see it) terrorizing civilians at least has some military/strategic value.

  10. 10.

    Eolirin

    @Adam L Silverman: I can’t imagine that the US wouldn’t respond according to its treaty obligations, and very promptly, as long as a Democrat is in the White House

    Which mostly means Putin is unlikely to risk it until one isn’t, I suppose.

  11. 11.

    West of the Rockies

    I mentioned Russian tanks going kaboom a couple days ago.  Looks like the creeps within exited unscathed.  Truth is, the loss of a tank is a hollow hooray in contrast to a dead child.

  13. 13.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Eolirin: The good news: it’s never been put to the test. The bad news: it’s never been put to the test. We will find out of we past the test when we have to take it.

  17. 17.

    Ruckus

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    I believe that they are targeting civilians.

    They hit a lot of multi story apartment/business buildings so that they do as much damage/death per missile. Those are mostly civilian structures. Yes many get shot down but a lot get through. And now they are shooting advanced missiles, very fast missiles that are harder to shoot down. This is likely for 2 reasons. First, they may have used up a lot of the slower, older missiles. Or all of them. Second, they are not making the progress they wanted, other countries are sending in equipment and supplies. Yes they may be big enough to outlast Ukraine but not if Ukraine ends up getting more support because they are doing even more damage and killing more citizens – not that the military isn’t made up of citizens, but this is also the mindset that works in most militaries in some ways, military personal are citizens but have responsibilities to the state that non military people don’t. (And yes I understand that is one of the things that it takes to have an at all effective military. Let’s just say that the military has a different structure than civilian life. It’s almost impossible not to)

  18. 18.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Alison Rose: From Hannah Arendt’s _Personal Responsibility Under Dictatorship_:

    I had somehow taken it for granted that we all still believe with Socrates that it is better to suffer than to do wrong. This belief turned out to be a mistake. There was a widespread conviction
    that it is impossible to withstand temptation of any kind, that none of us could be trusted or even be expected to be trustworthy when the chips are down, that to be tempted and to be forced are almost the same, whereas in the words of Mary McCarthy, who first spotted this fallacy: “If somebody points a gun at you and says, ‘Kill your friend or I will kill you,’ he is tempting you, that is all.” And while a temptation where one’s life is at stake may be a legal excuse for a crime, it certainly is not a moral justification.

  19. 19.

    Yutsano

    @Ruckus: ​There is a theory, and Adam might or might not be able to confirm this, that Russia is launching missiles as soon as they’re built and available. It does sound plausible since the rockets get shot rather piecemeal rather than in strategic bursts. But without decent intelligence on that who knows?

  20. 20.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Jay: I can see it now: it’s a small price to be paid, the deaths of those tripwire forces, to avoid a war, says future Chancellor Gazprom-Director-To-Be.  He or she is backed-up by the indecipherable mumblings of various CEOs and directors of companies making bank on the Russia trade, and voila! NATO decides that they need a negotiated “peace” with Russia that gives away the Batics.

    This is why Poland is arming like crazy, where the Western European members of NATO ….. not so much (ha!)

  22. 22.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: I don’t think we’ve seen Iskanders & Kinzhals miss so badly, there have been plenty of terror strikes where Russia clearly hit exactly what they were aiming at.

    It could be that the Ukrainians are spoofing/jamming GLONASS signals, which sent the missiles off course, just as the Russians are spoofing/jamming GPS signals to reduce the effectiveness of HIMARS strikes.

  23. 23.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Ruckus: I am sure Russia has been deliberately hitting civilian targets as part of a terror campaign. In this instance, the Ukrainians are saying that the Kinzhals were aimed at the airbase.

  24. 24.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Eolirin: ​
     You are correct, as long as Democrats are running the show, we will honor our commitments. If Rethugs get into power, all bets are off, because they are dishonorable offal.

  26. 26.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Yutsano: I’ve heard it. I do also know that a lot of the stuff they had stockpiled was not maintained particularly well. So that may also be affecting reliability.

    Everything I’ve seen reported, however, makes it clear that the Russians are deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure and civilians themselves.

  28. 28.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Comrade Bukharin: No, that’s not what I’m saying or suggesting. What I’m saying is the world looks a lot different, and the strategic concerns are a lot different, in Estonia or Latvia or Lithuania. The preoccupation with escalation and concerns over what might happen should Putin fall from power and Russia become even less stable are luxuries that the Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians, as well as the Finns, the Swedes, the Norwegians, and the Poles cannot afford the way DC or London or Berlin or Paris can.

  29. 29.

    YY_Sima Qian

    After this war ends, the Russian Army will not be in any shape to take on Poland for quite a few years, let alone all of NATO. Even if a GOPer President refuses direct military engagement, I think we can be sure Poland, the Scandinavians & Czechia/Slovakia would. I would be extremely surprised if the Western European countries do not at least use their air power & naval power in the Baltic Sea.

  30. 30.

    Ruckus

    @Yutsano:

    True. Russia doesn’t really act like a normal nation in the least.

    And vlad is getting to that point in life, especially on the health side of the ledger and given his history and ego, that he has to have a win before he goes. And really where else is he going to be able to do that? He is/was never going to be a rational part of the modern world, he’s not built that way.

  31. 31.

    Alison Rose

    @Ruckus: Gonna be really gross when he finally does kick off and they put on a big over the top state funeral for him, probably pay women to weep and rend their garments. While the rest of the world is watching with the biggest tub of popcorn in history.

  32. 32.

    Philbert

    @YY_Sima Qian: I note that now and then the Russian attacks of certain civilian targets are quite precise.   I guess they save the good stuff for terror.

  33. 33.

    Craig

    Adam, thanks for these posts. I don’t read them all the time, because having my blood boil isn’t good for my health. It’s good to know your posts are there and they keep me engaged with what’s happening in the war. I really appreciate how you organize the information on a complex and constantly evolving situation, and make it easier to digest for a layman.

  34. 34.

    Another Scott

    ICYMI, VOANews.com (today):

    The White House says it is committed to training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s in the U.S. once such training programs in Europe have reached capacity.

    White House spokesman John Kirby said at a press briefing Friday that it is important to speed up the process of pilot training on the military aircrafts as well as caring for maintenance and other logistics.

    “It’s going to be a while before jets can show up in Ukraine and for them to be integrated into the air fleet,” he said. “And it’s not just a function of the transfer of actual airframes, but the appropriate training for pilots as well as setting up all the maintenance, logistics and sustainment efforts.”

    Kirby noted that Western countries — Denmark and the Netherlands in particular — work together on developing a training program for Ukrainian pilots, and that English language training for Ukrainian specialists is critical.

    “All the tech manuals are in English and all the controls inside the aircraft are in English,” said Kirby. “A pilot is going to have to have at least some basic proficiency in the language.

    “All that we can say is that there’s a multi-step process, and we’re committed to helping our allies move that process along as quickly as it possibly can.”

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  39. 39.

    Sebastian

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    That’s one possibility. Another one would be that Russia is building missiles with inferior (perhaps even missing) components due to sanctions.

  40. 40.

    gene108

    @Chetan Murthy:

    This is why Poland is arming like crazy, where the Western European members of NATO ….. not so much (ha!)

    Poland was badly let down by allied promises in its war with the USSR in 1920 (may have been 1922) and in 1939.

    The damage the lack of support, in 1939, caused has to leave a generational memory of trauma across the country.

  41. 41.

    Sebastian

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Ah, thank you for the hilarious memory. At the time, I was full of sincere hope that Germany has shaken off their unbearable non-military stance. They even announced a huge military upgrade program, only to whittle it down to a joke a few months later.

    German (and Austrian) society is full of tankies. Many of them came out of the so called 68 Movement (massive student protests in 1968) and the environmental movement in the 80ies (which started as anti-nuclear power movement, using the ever present but suppressed fear of nuclear war to turn public opinion). Those two groups have a huge overlap and their members rose up the ranks of the Social Democrats or became the Green Party.

    The Green Party consisted of Marxists and other various flavors of Western “Salon Communists”, secretly supported by the USSR first and then Russia. Russia of course also supported the various right wing parties.

    What made matters worse, the 68ers became “the voice of reason” and were given enormous respect in print and TV media, and as time progressed and they became older, their respect increased. Because white hair and decades of print and TV appearance. That generation also went into education and took over the school system from inside. In my middle and high school, two thirds of teachers were Social Democrats bordering on Communists, the arts teachers were openly Communist, the rest were Christian Democrats (Conservatives in the European sense who would be perceived as pinko commies in the US). The only right winger was our PE teacher (who was also a Austrian Army Major, Reserve)

    German and Austrian people have now solid 50-60 years of peace indoctrination propaganda in them, which makes any kind of increase in military readiness and spending a suicide at the ballot box.

  44. 44.

    bjacques

    Thanks, Adam, for bearing witness. I’ve also read every one of your posts, and they’ve been great help in getting the real story out.

  45. 45.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Yutsano: It’s almost a certainty that the Russians are no longer firing from the stockpile, bu rather at their average production rate. I wrote an analysis here which I summarized more briefly here.

Comments are closed.