Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

In my day, never was longer.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

Just because you believe it, that does not make it true.

Sometimes the world just tells you your cat is here.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

Many life forms that would benefit from greater intelligence, sadly, do not have it.

Tide comes in. Tide goes out. You can’t explain that.

They want us to be overwhelmed and exhausted. Focus. Resist. Oppose.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

You passed on an opportunity to be offended? What are you even doing here?

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires Republicans to act in good faith.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

“I was told there would be no fact checking.”

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

In after Baud. Damn.

If ‘weird’ was the finish line, they ran through the tape and kept running.

An almost top 10,000 blog!

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

Museums are not America’s attic for its racist shit.

When you’re a Republican, they let you do it.

The press swings at every pitch, we don’t have to.

Someone should tell Republicans that violence is the last refuge of the incompetent, or possibly the first.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 562: The Starlink Snowflake Tries to Explain & the UN May Be Trying to Give Putin an Out

War for Ukraine Day 562: The Starlink Snowflake Tries to Explain & the UN May Be Trying to Give Putin an Out

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A quick housekeeping note: I know some of you are displeased that some of us front pagers are still embedding tweets into our posts. In my case until/unless most of the accounts I rely on start using other platforms and WordPress will allow me to embed them here I either keep including the tweets, screen grab and upload them as image files, or don’t include them at all. I’m willing to go the screen grab route, but that is going to add significant time to the production of these updates. Which is why I’ve been loath to do a lot of that unless I absolutely have to.

The Starlink Snowflake attempted to explain and further justify his way out of being an accessory to Russian war crimes. Here’s the screengrab:

A screengrab of Musk's tweet justifying denying Ukraine's request for Starlink support near Crimea in 2022.

Mykhailo Podolyak, who is President Zelenskyy’s senior advisor, tweeted a response:

Sometimes a mistake is much more than just a mistake. By not allowing Ukrainian drones to destroy part of the Russian military (!) fleet via #Starlink interference, @elonmusk allowed this fleet to fire Kalibr missiles at Ukrainian cities. As a result, civilians, children are being killed. This is the price of a cocktail of ignorance and big ego. However, the question still remains: why do some people so desperately want to defend war criminals and their desire to commit murder? And do they now realize that they are committing evil and encouraging evil?

Musk’s attempt to clear up the record and justify his decision really doesn’t help him much. Honestly, his version of events – that the Ukrainians made an emergency request and he denied it – is actually worse than what CNN reported yesterday based on getting a preview copy of Isaacson’s biography of Musk. Also, claiming Starlink would be complicit in an act of war and major escalation is disingenuous. That’s like saying Lexus is complicit if I decide to drive over a bunch of pedestrians. Musk is responsible for Musk’s decisions. Ukraine’s national command authority is responsible for Ukraine’s decisions. And the Russian Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol are legitimate military targets and, as such, Ukraine targeting them would have been within the laws of war. Musk’s attempted after the fact justification is also a self serving rationalization. We already know Musk has taken Putin’s side in the war and has accepted Putin’s framing of the conflict. All he’s doing now is quibbling over the details. And his quibbling and self serving justifications made it possible for Russia to target more Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure thereby killing, wounding, and maiming more Ukrainian civilians. This is aiding and abetting a war crime. If Musk had any actual conscience, the reality I just described would haunt him. But he doesn’t, so he’ll continue to mouth and tweet glib rationalizations and explanations all while continuing to aid and abet Putin’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine, his information war against the US, the UK, the EU, and other allies, and platforming and promoting the reactionary violent extremist rhetoric that makes Putin’s information warfare so successful. Musk is not only a threat to Ukraine, he is also a clear and present danger to the United States. And he needs to treated as such.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

The world’s sanctions offensive must resume – address of President of Ukraine

8 September 2023 – 19:48

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you good health!

It’s been a very active day today, with a lot of international communication – Ukraine needs to be heard and understood worldwide. Shared emotions are always a great source of greater support.

Yalta European Strategy Summit – various meetings, interviews.

A meeting with the members of our sanctions group led by Andriy Yermak and Michael McFaul. A report on what has already been achieved in our work with partners for sanctions against Russia. Milestones for the near future. Currently, we see a prolonged sanctions pause from our partners. And Russia’s overly active attempts to circumvent the sanctions. It’s crucial to add solutions to the free world, which should defend itself. And have success in this!

And, even more so, it should avoid any attempts to use free world companies, technologies, and products to wage war against freedom.

Three priorities: further sanctions against Russia’s energy sector, real restrictions on the supply of chips and microelectronics in general to terrorists, and further blocking of the Russian financial sector. This world’s sanctions offensive must resume.

On the eve of the Sports Day, I met with the community of our athletes. Those who bring glory to the world for Ukraine deserve applause on the arenas for our flag.

Today, I also held an important preparatory meeting regarding an upcoming international event planned for this September. Details will follow shortly. We are preparing an important defense package for our soldiers.

And one more thing. Chevron badges. Guys, our brigades, which I recently visited in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions – your chevron badges are already here, in my office, on the boards. I am proud of every brigade, every soldier!

Glory to all who fight for our state! I thank each and every one who works for the Ukrainian strength! And to all who help our people overcome this time, overcome the consequences of Russian terror. We will definitely win!

Glory to Ukraine!

ATACMS!!!!

Some ATACMS rumours from ABC News: The Biden administration is likely to send ATACMS to Ukraine.

“They are coming,” said one official who had access to security assistance plans. The official noted that, as always, such plans are subject to change until officially announced.

A second official said the missiles are “on the table” and likely to be included in an upcoming security assistance package, adding that a final decision has not been made. It could be months before Ukraine receives the missiles, according to the official.

In other Musk is a dangerous asshole news, he also gave Isaacson private messages sent to him by Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for Innovation/Minister for Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov without first getting Fedorov’s permission. Or even telling him.

Ukrainska Pravda has the details:

American billionaire Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla, SpaceX and the owner of Twitter (X), gave his biographer access to private messages from Mykhailo Fedorov, Deputy Prime Minister for Innovation and Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, without asking for permission.

Fedorov told the FT that he was not aware that Walter Isaacson had received and published the messages in the biography.

Quote: “It’s not very pretty. I’ve never shown or talked about our correspondence publicly,” Fedorov said.

In his book, Isaacson describes how Musk intervened to block Ukrainian military access to Starlink on Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory. The intervention prevented a secret attack by Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) on the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, occupied Crimea.

Isaacson’s biography and related column in the Washington Post on Friday include a text message exchange in which Fedorov pleads with Musk to reconnect Starlink with Ukrainian forces.

Fedorov was shocked when the FT showed the WP article, but said that since the messages were a year old, their publication was unlikely to have any operational consequences.

After media reports in October last year about disruptions in the operation of Starlink in Ukraine, Musk agreed to restore the work of Ukrainian forces operating near Russian ones.

Fedorov said Musk himself told him he had turned off Starlink service on the front lines in southeastern Ukraine when Fedorov asked him to actually turn on communications in Crimea and to the borders of 1991.

Quote: “When he turned it on, he wrote that he had turned it back on,” Fedorov added.

Fedorov, who has repeatedly publicly thanked Musk for providing the Starlink service, repeated his gratitude.

Quote: “I think that if he hadn’t done it, it would have been a disaster, we just wouldn’t be able to fight like this if he hadn’t done it,” the Deputy Prime Minister said.

Fedorov acknowledged long and frequent text conversations with Musk after Russia launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The Deputy Prime Minister said that after Musk posted a message on Twitter, which Fedorov perceived as pro-Russian, he wrote a text message to the billionaire.

Quote: “I explained to him that he was wrong, that we were, like, fighting for our independence there,” Fedorov added.

The newspaper notes that the temporary shutdown of Starlink took place at a crucial moment in Ukraine’s counteroffensive last autumn, after the full restoration of control over the territory occupied by Russia in Kharkiv Oblast and the recapture of lands on the Crimea front.

Updated: Later, Mykhailo Fedorov agreed to publish his correspondence with Musk in the businessman’s biography.

“I officially give my permission to publish my text message history with Elon Musk in a new book about him. To be honest, I’m looking forward to the book,” he wrote on his Twitter account.

More at the link!

Obligatory:

Ukrainska Pravda also brings us English language reporting/republishes Bild‘s German language reporting about the UN Secretary-General’s attempts to create sanctions’ work arounds for Russia in an attempt to get the grain deal reinstated.

The UN is currently conducting secret negotiations with the Russian Federation to reach a deal in which the key sanctions imposed after the beginning of its large-scale invasion of Ukraine will be lifted from Vladimir Putin’s terrorist regime in exchange for reviving the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Source: This was reported by Bild, which has obtained a secret letter from UN Secretary-General António Guterres to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, dated 28 August.

Quote: “A secret letter from UN Secretary-General António Guterres shows how far the UN is ready to go to restore the grain deal with the warmonger Putin,” the newspaper writes.

The letter from Guterres, which Bild calls “explosive”, proposes “four specific cornerstones of the agreement between the UN Secretariat and the Russian Federation”, which should “lead to the continuation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative”.

“All four points are important, since their implementation would meet all the requirements of Vladimir Putin’s terrorist regime and reward his missile attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets,” Bild writes.

Guterres’ proposals are as follows:

A Russian state-owned bank is to be reconnected to SWIFT

To circumvent the sanctions, the UN Secretary-General proposes to use a specially founded subsidiary of a sanctioned Russian bank, RSHB Capital SA.

This will allow the Kremlin-controlled company to “take on the role of an interface and provide technical services for payment transactions without playing the role of a bank, so it does not need a banking licence under Luxembourg law.”

“Simply put: the head of the UN wants to activate a fake bank that will bypass EU sanctions against Russian banks,” writes Bild.

Moreover, the UN has EU support for these plans.

Bild contacted the European Commission, which is responsible for the implementation of sanctions, and an EC representative confirmed that “the EU has expressed to Russia, through the UN, its openness to seeking a more permanent, constructive solution through the designated subsidiary of the Russian Agricultural Bank, which allows SWIFT payments in accordance with EU sanctions on agricultural transactions.”

Financial services provider SWIFT also indirectly confirmed this in response to Bild’s enquiry: “We are aware of the high-level discussions currently taking place around the Black Sea Grain Initiative and are closely monitoring developments.”

“So the UN and the EU are working on a ‘legal’ way to bypass the sanctions with respect to SWIFT for the sanctioned Russian Agricultural Bank,” the newspaper writes.

The UN is willing to insure Russian ships against Ukrainian attacks

Within this point, Guterres is seriously proposing to Lavrov that Russian ships should be insured against Ukrainian attacks in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea.

He writes: “A UN-funded insurance company for Russian exports of food and fertilisers would be working with Lloyd’s within 4-6 weeks.”

As well as “cargo insurance for Russian exports of food and fertilisers”, the UN head is also offering Casco and P&I insurance.

Casco insurance is comprehensive insurance against external factors affecting ships used for transportation, while P&I is comprehensive insurance of liability for losses caused to third parties.

Guterres promises the Russian foreign minister that “the United Nations will support insurance to emphasise the importance of Russian exports to global food security and increase the number of market participants with the ultimate goal of reducing insurance costs for Russian exporters.”

Bild contacted the British ship insurer Lloyd’s, but they replied: “No comment.”

Frozen funds must be given back to Russia

Under this point, Guterres is sending Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov an offer to help the Putin regime recover assets in the EU that have been frozen by the sanctions.

He writes: “The United Nations may continue to help unfreeze the frozen assets of Russian fertiliser companies in the European Union.”

Like a kind of guide to sanctions evasion, the UN head tells Russia’s chief propagandist that he should “provide a list of specific accounts or assets”, and that “Russian fertiliser companies should apply to the relevant national authorities of the EU for the appropriate exemptions”.

Guterres promises that “the United Nations will work with the relevant national authorities and EU bodies to address these requests”.

Permission for Russian ships to dock in countries such as Germany to be reinstated

Finally, in the last point, Guterres proposes to “ensure effective access for Russian ships carrying food and fertilisers to EU ports through fast-track port permits”.

The UN chief notes: “The United Nations stands ready to explore further options to facilitate access for Russian ships to EU ports for agricultural trade, including simplified procedures for issuing relevant permits, particularly before departure for Russian ports.”

To this end, UN Secretary-General Guterres has “held discussions with the European Commission and selected port authorities (Germany, Belgium, Spain, the Netherlands)”.

Bild asked Germany’s Federal Foreign Office in Berlin whether it was working with the UN to facilitate Russian ships entering German ports.

Responding to a question from Bild, the EU Commission in Brussels ambiguously stated that EU sanctions provide for “targeted exemptions to allow Russian ships access to EU ports as required for the purchase, import or transport of agricultural products and food, including wheat and fertilisers”.

On 5 September, Bild asked the office of UN Secretary-General António Guterres about his outrageous letter to the Russian Foreign Minister.

There has been no response.

Bild says Russia’s leadership is now carefully studying the UN proposals and has not yet agreed to them, as the Kremlin considers them “too good to be true” and has doubts about the “technical feasibility” of the concessions offered.

Ukrainian government circles say that Guterres’ proposals are an “incredible insult” and a “reward for Russia’s aggressive behaviour” from the UN.

A senior government official stated that “under no circumstances” would the Ukrainian government resume the grain deal with Russia under these conditions, nor would it give up its “right under international law” to monitor Russian naval vessels and illegally built structures such as the Crimean Bridge in order to pursue the offensive.

Secretary-General Guterres, as well as the European Commission/EU have a lot of explaining to do. Hopefully this well timed leak to Bild, as well as its English and Ukrainian language republication will short circuit this absolutely terrible proposed deal.

Odradokamyanka, Kherson Oblast and Orihiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

russians systematically terrorize the civilian population not only in large cities, but also in the villages and towns of Ukraine. In the last two days, they attacked the village of Odradokamyanka in Kherson region three times. Yesterday, as a result of artillery shelling and a drone strike, three local residents were injured. Today, a russian guided aerial bomb killed three villagers. Four people were injured. The small town of Orihiv in Zaporizhzhia region has been shelled several times a day for the past year and a half. Today, the bodies of two local residents were found during the clearing of the rubble of a residential building. A woman was killed by a russian projectile in the village of Primorske, Zaporizhzhia region.

Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Kryvyi Rih:

Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih… These are the cities that suffered from russian terrorist attacks this morning.
A residential building in Sumy was destroyed, and another two dozen were damaged. Two people were pulled from the ruins.
Several apartment buildings and two educational institutions were damaged in Zaporizhzhia.
A police station in Kryvyi Rih was destroyed, and seven residential buildings were damaged. One officer was killed, and six others were injured. More than 40 locals were injured in total. Rescue efforts are still underway.

Kryvyi Rih:

Kryvy Rih today. Another direct missile strike on civilians. 72 injured, 1 killed. Classic Russian-style terrorism. Does anyone still want to agree to #Russia’s demands, accept its conditions, negotiate, or lift sanctions? Perhaps someone wants to kneel before Russia? Or is it time to legally designate the terrorist state as a terrorist state and remove it from the #UN Security Council?

WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC IMAGERY!! WARNING!! WARNING!!

ALL CLEAR!!

Klischiivka:

Robotyne:

Odesa:

Tatarigami brings this reality check for those who are impatient regarding Ukraine’s ongoing offensive:

The now independent Ukrainian journalist Illia Ponomarenko brings us this interesting story:

A TALE OF A DUMB DECISION

Once upon a time, on a frosty Russian winter’s night in February 2021, two lifetime buddies, Russian oligarch Yuriy Kovalchuk and Vladimir V. Putin were sitting together by the fire in a concealment room, sipping ̶v̶o̶d̶k̶a̶ ̶ tea from gold-studded glasses.

Putin was openly pissed off and not too eager to talk so much tonight.

Just a couple of hours before, an officer on duty brought him a daily report folder saying that the Ukrainian leadership was coming down hard on Viktor Medvedchuk. Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council ruled to terminate Medvedchuk’s TV network and impose sanctions on his billions-worth assets.

For years before, Medvedchuk had been consuming tons and tons of Kremlin money to advance Russian ‘soft power’ via his political party and media, and he surely believed no one would ever want to check if the money was properly spent.

He had been talking sweet: Ukraine was only waiting to get back to Mother Russia’s embrace, and nothing but its American-installed regime was standing in the way.

Putin is not usually a man to openly express his rage.

But that latest Ukrainian jump on his biggest asset was a very red line.

Putin was sitting in his chair, trembling with anger and sipping his tea.

Kovalchuk preferred to sit quietly, rubbing his nose once in a while and listening to firewood crackling.

He was waiting for a moment his vis-a-vis was cooked up for a serious conversation.

Putin was deathly afraid of the coronavirus, so he switched to full-scale paranoia and had been spending nearly two years almost completely isolated from the outer world.

But there was a man who was so close to Putin that he had almost unlimited access to the dictator’s ear — and it was Yuriy Kovalchuk.

Kovalchuk was about 70, a billionaire (of course, heh), and he looked like a Soviet Politburo apparatchik from HBO’s Chernobyl.

An ethnic Ukrainian born and raised in Leningrad, Kovalchuk was a Russian propaganda media mogul. Also, a sworn anti-Western conspiracy theorist, anti-liberalist, and Russian chauvinist.

After a long wait, Kovalchuk made the first step.

“I see you’re not in a very good mood, my friend,” he said.

Putin made a wry face.

“You know what’s the matter,” he uttered from behind his favorite luxurious Louis XIV-style writing desk made handicraft under a strictly confidential order in Italy.

Kovalchuk gladly carried on pushing forward.

“Can’t say we never discussed this issue before, Vladimir. And now here we go again.”
Putin’s ire only got stronger.
“I’m sick. I’m sick of this sorry excuse of a country. I’ve had enough. Poroshenko was a sneaky fat bastard, but this circus jester Zelensky is having some nerve. Who does he think he is, they are now jumping on Medvedchuk. Do you imagine how much money we’ve poured into him since 2014?”

Kovalchuk was just peacefully waiting for this rant out with his fingertips spliced together.

“You know my position, Vladimir,” he said as Putin exhaled.

“We’ve been way too patient and gracious with that bunch of Jews and Nazis showing off under Uncle Sam’s protection in Kiev. I’ve told you many times, that they’re proceeding with their master plan of undermining us, and the situation only gets worse for us with every week. They’re feeding on our aspirations for peace and justice.”

“That fucking comedian,” Putin murmured.

“Do you remember how it was during a joint press briefing in Paris two years ago? That cocaine junkie was openly chuckling at me when I was talking about the implementation of Minsk. In the public! And they keep messing with my balls over this and make a moron out of me.”

Kovalchuk rolled up his eyes and dropped a sigh of annoyance.

“For 20 fucking years Ukraine has been one giant thorn in my ass,” Putin carried on with his rampage.

“God knows I tried, I tried to be nice and patient. I’ve been extending a hand of friendship, literally fostered this sorry-ass piece of land, and tolerated their stupid country-bumpkin broken version of the Russian language. They keep licking American boots. And now they openly spit in my face and dare to mess with my trusted man’s shit?”

Kovalchuk rubbed his nose again.

“Do you remember how good things were as recently as ten years ago?” he said.

“We had our secret services under every stone in this so-called “Ukraine”. We had them in our iron fist. Even their defense minister was our guy, for Christ’s sake, haha! We had Yanukovych in our pocket, that stupid jail thug for life, a joke of a man who had no guts to do his job to complete and extirpate that shit hole at the Maidan.”

“This is all just a never-ending scam,” Putin moaned.

“All this time, they all have been playing tricks and laughing at me. Me! I am the ruler of the biggest country on this fucking planet. I have more nukes, more women, and more money than any of those sorry-ass low-life losers can dream of. And that ridiculous piece of land created by Vladimir Lenin from what belongs to us…”

Putin’s face got unusually distorted as if the gust of rage and resentment got his facial muscles paralyzed.

Kovalchuk knew his vis-a-vis very well — a rather undetermined, loose man on the throne prone to the influence of those whispering in his ear.

And this paralysis of hatred on his face was saying Putin was humiliated enough to be bent on doing a rare thing throughout his 20-year rule — assuming responsibility and making a decision.

So Kovalchuk continued with his subtle play.

“So, how long do you think they will go on leading by a string with this Minsk agreement thing?” he says.

“I told you, this Ukrainian question should have been given the final solution as far back as 2014, right after Crimea and Donbas. But we were not determined enough, and we gave America more than enough time to prepare for a new onset. They are a strong adversary, and they keep challenging our empire in this centuries-old grand game.”

“Anglo-Saxons are corrupting our rule, and they are drawing nearer. We have little to no control of Little Russia, and let me remind you of a fact that we just barely saved that cockroach Lukashenko from 400,000 Belarusians whom Americans organized for protests.”

Putin scratched the top of his lovely Louis XIV-style desk.

“Western immodesty has gone beyond the pale,” he murmured.

“In no fucking way they will get Belarus from me. I’d rather give half of Siberia to Xi than let Belarusians elect a president they want.”

Kovalchuk sniffled and made a dramatic gesture.

“Vladimir, we know each other for god knows how many decades,” he gave a dramatic sigh.

“And you know I’ve always been by your side and I’d never give you a bad call. And with due respect, this is something that I’ve been hearing from you for years. Ukraine won’t just roll over, and it keeps throwing spades full of shit into your face, the West pries into things that are none of its business.

“Are you going to finally do anything about it?”

Putin shuddered from the pin against his bruised ego.

“What do you mean, you’re telling me I’m sitting idle and whining day and night?” he raised his lackluster eyes.

“No,” Kovalchuk shook his head.

“I want to know when the Tsar of all Russias sets things to rights and puts the annoying flea invented in the Austrian General Staff to its place, along with its overseas masters.”

“What would Peter the Great… or Alexander the Third do?…” Putin dreamily tipped back with the thoughts of his great predecessors.

“They would begin with no more lovey-dovey attitude towards the wicked West,” Kovalchuk snapped up immediately.

“Did George Bush the Junior appreciate your generous move with the shutdown of our base in Cuba in 2002? Did they acknowledge our God-given right as a superpower to a sphere of influence from Tallinn to Berlin, which was fought out by our fathers led by Stalin?”

Putin was already in for a bit of excitement on his withered face.

“What we got in return for our generosity and open-mindedness are those Nazi subhumans dancing around in cities once established by Russian emperors,” Kovalchuk was declaring his speech full of inspiration.

“Our Bolshoi Theater is as old as their sorry-ass American declaration of independence. We were a great power in the age when bisons and butt-naked Indians were roaming what’s now their New York City.”

Putin’s eyes were shining bright.

“…so, as your friend and as a Russian patriot,” Kovalchuk was almost ready to jump on Putin’s desk and use it as a grandstand.

“I say now is the time. We have a window of opportunity to put this anti-Russian project “Ukraine” to an end and reinstate ourselves as a superpower and you as the one making history.”

Putin suddenly shivered.

“You mean…ehm… war?”

Kovalchuk actorly spreads his hands.

“Who said war? I haven’t said a word about that. What I’m saying is that we need prompt action to oust that Nazi clown Zelensky and his clique. We’re the world’s second-strongest military power. It’ll be enough to just lift a finger and make that joke of an American puppet crumble so we can dine in Kyiv.”

Putin leaned back and closed his eyes.

“But what about the West?”

“About who? The West?” Kovalchuk laughed.

“That bunch of perverts is as pathetic, divided, and corrupt as never before in history. They’d sell their mothers out for our monies. Do I need to remind you how many of those Schröders we guaranteed rich retirements to? And they’ll piss themselves and back off from our business in Ukraine the second we bark at them really loud.”

“Or are we talking about that old nut job Biden who has little idea of where he is and what’s happening around him?”

“Well, his not much older than you and I…” Putin gave a faint cough.

“And it’s not that we’re as dumb as Americans who had no idea what kind of mess they were getting into in Iraq,” Kovalchuck rubbed his nose again.

Putin was twisting about in his chair.

“Ukraine wants us, and you know it. We’ll hang all the Nazis on streetlights in no time, and the rest will be throwing flowers at our tanks. Piece of cake, a matter of days. And, let me remind you, a lot of respected friends of ours will be more than glad to divvy Ukraine up between their companies and make loads of money from government contracts.”

Putin was getting increasingly excited and started biting nails.

“I’m thinking more about 2024,” he said after a short pause.

“What’s about 2024?” Kovalchuk raised his eyebrows.

“Presidential elections. I will have to get re-elected for my fifth term.”

“And? I still don’t get why we need to fool around with that flying circus of elections and ask the peasants if they want you re-elected. You told me many times this country needs no one but the Tsar. Why.”

“Because,” Putin was already having a thousand thoughts in his head.

“I need to know the mob supports and loves me. Leave this question to me, Yuriy.”

“Whatever gets you your kicks, Vladimir,” Kovalchuk waved his words off.

“Remember how well it worked with Crimea? Give the mob Kyiv and Lviv, paint the map our color, and this country is going to kiss your ass into oblivion at polling stations. You don’t even have to rig a single ballot.”

Putin was intently staring into the dark.

“Yuriy, this conversation is not leaving this room,” he said.

Kovalchuk had already prepared himself to deal with the final strike.

“I just want you to think about this: You’re not getting any younger,” he said. “You’re turning 70 soon…”

“You can bite me if you think I’m too old to hold power, Yuriy,” Putin lashed back immediately as if he was facing a terrible insult.

“…and as your lifetime friend, I want you now to think about your legacy. Do you want to be remembered as just an owner of a dozen palaces and yachts and several hundred billion dollars you took to your grave? Do you want people to remember you as the one pushed around by that fraud Navalny? A coward who missed a chance and let Americans boss himself?”

Putin twitched again.

“Or do you want to be the greatest ruler of Russia since Joseph Stalin who took back what’s ours and showed everyone who’s the boss? History belongs to the strong and powerful, Vladimir. How much have we invested in our military reform and rearmament? A trillion roubles?”

“So have a talk with Shoigu — make him finally stop blabbing and begin earning his marshal stars. And also bringing you and us all to our triumph we’ve been aspiring to for twenty years.”

“I’m going to think about this,” Putin murmured again.

“Yeah, you think about this, Vladimir. Now it’s the time…”

That’s a long tweet!

Also, obligatory:

For you Russian equipment goes kablooey enthusiasts:

Bryansk, Russia:

That is more than enough for tonight!

Your daily Patron!

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

92Comments

  1. 1.

    patrick II

    Dumb question, but can any of the corn we grow to produce ethanol be repurposed to feed people?

  3. 3.

    Alison Rose

    That’s like saying Lexus is complicit if I decide to drive over a bunch of pedestrians.

    But if you were driving a Tesla…

    It’s frustrating to see what the UN is doing here, and more so because I’m sure they will insist on their rightness and goodness and many Very Serious People will agree.

    I know it’ll be months before the ATACMS arrive, but I’m still glad to see this news. Now…let’s hope the follow-through happens.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  5. 5.

    Martin

    @patrick II: Won’t happen. The US could easily throw off enough grain to match what Ukraine produced if we wound back some of our silage production for human edible grains. That would raise meat and dairy prices, which we won’t stand for.

    The underlying truth is that we have solutions for homelessness and climate change and so on, but we don’t have the collective will to do it – either because it would cause rich people to be less rich or it would inconvenience us in some way. I’m skeptical that any kind of collective action on that scale is not yet feasible. On a smaller scale perhaps – at a community level, but not at a national level.

  6. 6.

    Carlo Graziani

    Adam, I see the work that you routinely do to abate Xitter ass-pain, by showing a tweet and following it with the extracted text in a block quote. That’s awesome, and I’m grateful.

  7. 7.

    Martin

    That’s like saying Lexus is complicit if I decide to drive over a bunch of pedestrians.

    In fairness, if you drive over a bunch of pedestrians, odds are you won’t be held accountable either unless you’re drunk. 2 year old down the street was killed by a distracted driver while she rode her scooter on the sidewalk – no charges. I know 3 cyclists killed by motorists – motorist was never charged in any of them.

  8. 8.

    J. Arthur Crank (fka Jerzy Russian)

    I am a bit conflicted:  Do we nationalize Starlink and then kick Musk in the nuts, or do we kick Musk in the nuts first and then nationalize Starlink?  I can see arguments for either one, and people of good will can have reasonable disagreements on this topic.

  9. 9.

    Carlo Graziani

    That leak was not only well-timed: it also sets up two possibilities for its origin:

    (1) There are mid-level officials in the EU and perhaps in the UN Secretariat who are scandalized by this development, and want it stopped;

    (2) US Intelligence has been following this traffic, and got the go-ahead from seniors to tip off the press, so as to put a torpedo into it.

    I’m OK with either end.

  10. 10.

    Gin & Tonic

     I know some of you are displeased that some of us front pagers are still embedding tweets into our posts.

    If I were in your shoes, I’d tell those malcontents to get their own fucking blog and put up a high-quality post a day like you do – or invite them to go to Kyiv and tell people there they are internetting wrong.

  11. 11.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani: the failure of the League of Nations in the runup to WWII caused the League to collapse, didn’t it?  Do the nations of the West have the guts to  do the same this time and replace the UN with something better ?

  13. 13.

    Butter Emails

    @Parfigliano:

    Nope. The corn we produce for livestock and as chemical feedstock isn’t really suitable for human consumption. Given a year the crops could likely be switched out, but the food crisis could be over by then meaning farmers would be stuck with unprofitable crops and we’d be stuck globally with higher meat, dairy, gasoline, plastics, chemicals and everything derived from them.

  16. 16.

    tobie

    I’m having trouble believing that leaked UN letter is authentic as it reads like something Russia drafted. Then again the majority of member states in the UN are poor and deeply resentful of the support the west has given Ukraine while ignoring conflicts in their own regions, so perhaps Guterres is representing the majority view of the General Assembly: “We resent the colonial history and continuing colonial attitude of the west, so we are throwing our support behind Russia’s colonial expansion.”

  17. 17.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Carlo Graziani: Thanks for the kind words and you’re welcome. I just wish the damn site would die or everyone would migrate to BlueSky and WP would allow me to embed those posts here. But until or unless that happens, we’re kind of stuck with it.

  24. 24.

    jackmac

    @patrick II: Corn that’s converted to ethanol generally comes from field corn, the kind used to feed cattle. I suppose in a roundabout  way if more field corn is available and cattle consume it, that ultimately means more steak and beef products for people.

  27. 27.

    wjca

    @J. Arthur Crank (fka Jerzy Russian): Do we nationalize Starlink and then kick Musk in the nuts, or do we kick Musk in the nuts first and then nationalize Starlink?  I can see arguments for either one, and people of good will can have reasonable disagreements on this topic.

    Why should we choose?  Obviously, we could have it both ways.  And since you can only nationalize Starlink once….

  28. 28.

    Alison Rose

    Interesting and informative video, especially to show to any “Ukraine should just let russia have Crimea!!!!!” idiots you might come across.

    Why Crimea is far from being “ancestral russian land”

    We continue to debunk the myths of russian propaganda. Today’s video disproves the myth that Crimea has always been a part of russia. You will learn that over the centuries representatives of many nationalities and religions lived in Crimea, and the largest indigenous people of the peninsula had their own state – the Crimean Khanate.

    The video was created as part of the joint educational project by Media Center Ukraine and the Ukrainian Institute of National Remembrance to debunk the myths of russian propaganda as well as talk about the quasi-ideology of the modern kremlin.

    The project consists of two series of videos that will help to learn more about the history of the confrontation between the russian federation and Ukraine, disprove long-standing myths about Ukraine and reveal the nature of russian crimes.

  29. 29.

    Gin & Tonic

    I like Ponomarenko, but that’s a very fine-grained account of a meeting attended by two men, of whom he wasn’t one.

  30. 30.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Parfigliano: If you mean, in a laws-of-war sense, I’d think no.  Nobody has a duty to sell products to any customer, after all.  If you mean, could UA assassinate him, I doubt they’d do it right now: they have too many targets, and imagine the blowback.  If you mean after the war’s over, well, that’s a long time from now, who knows?  But AFAICT, Israel didn’t go around assassinating businessmen from neutral countries who did business with the Nazis, so I doubt UA would go after Musk.  And again, the blowback might be severe: like it or not, he’s a rich and powerful man, and hence has bought-and-paid for pols in governments all over the world.

  31. 31.

    Carlo Graziani

    The SWIFT governance page is here. Among other things, it says this:

    Each nation’s usage of Swift’s messaging services determines both Swift shareholding allocations and the number of Board Directors that each nation is entitled to.

    SWIFT shareholders are “3500 member organizations.” I can’t find a list anywhere, but I’m willing to bet at long odds that US banks, who answer to the US Treasury, are heavily represented.

    So at a cursory read, wishes for SWIFT to revise its sanctions regime vis-a-vis Russia probably fall in the “rub a lamp” category of likelihood.

  33. 33.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Gin & Tonic: It’s obviously a fictional account intended to illustrate his (not implausible) take on the parties and interests involved in the decision to go to war. It’s not intended as reporting.

  35. 35.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Adam L Silverman: Part of what makes it unlikely to be even remotely realistic, is that big meeting of Putin cronies that happened right before the invasion.  I remember that everybody there was uncomfortable and clearly  didn’t want the invasion.  Remember that intelligence chief who got publicly dressed-down as he squirmed to find the position that’d satisfy Vova and all ?

    Putin did this to himself: he didn’t need any help.

  36. 36.

    Anoniminous

    Interesting

    “Former Ukrainian Aidar Battalion Commander Yevhen Dykyi … stated that the minefields ahead of the upcoming Russian defensive layer are not continuous, consistent with previous Ukrainian statements suggesting that Ukrainian forces have already advanced through the densest minefields. Dykyi stated that Russia’s “third” defensive layer in southern Ukraine is primarily comprised of command posts, communication points, and warehouses and mainly acts as a support line for the Russian defensive positions further north.  Dykyi argued that Russian forces will not be able to hold back Ukrainian advances at this “third“ series of Russian defensive positions, implying that a definitive Ukrainian breach of the current Russian defensive layer would be operationally decisive.”

    That would be nice since it would mean Ukraine could put Tokmak under interdiction fire.

  37. 37.

    Lyrebird

    @Carlo Graziani: ​
     
    Adam, I see the work that you routinely do to abate Xitter ass-pain, by showing a tweet and following it with the extracted text in a block quote. That’s awesome, and I’m grateful

    Ditto here! And there is no way to please everyone. Thanks Adam

  40. 40.

    Lyrebird

    @Gin & Tonic:

    @Chetan Murthy:

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Sometimes a compelling story is easier to remember than a patchwork of knowns and unknowns.  Sorry if I sound like dum__ss warmongers from the past.  But I skipped the story because it would live on feeling like truth in my head, and we don’t know.

    I pray the news leak does what it needs to do.  I am not one to think the UN has much power, but they should be ashamed of themselves here.

  44. 44.

    Gravenstone

    @patrick II: Not directly. Field corn, or flint corn is not meant for human consumption. It can be used for animal feed, so could indirectly produce beef or pork.

  45. 45.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Marc: Oh, interesting.  It seems like the difference is that Mossad did it while his activities were a direct threat to Israel.[1]  That seems very different from the case with Musk, b/c

    UA can’t afford to take out Musk right now: he’s both a threat to UA, as well as an asset
    after the war, Musk won’t be a direct threat anymore.

    A possibly unrelated example: I read a few months ago that UA is buying (or their telecom operator is buying) Huawei 5G equipment.  It seems to me that that’s a bad decision even without this war.  But China isn’t a neutral party, and one might think that that would cause Ukraine to not want to give China any business they absolutely didn’t have to.  And yet.  The problem with these rich men, is that they get away with stuff.

    [1] he was doing business with Saddam Hussein at a time when Iraq was a direct threat to Israel.

  47. 47.

    Gravenstone

    @Alison Rose: I fully expect there are serious discussions about either renditioning him to stand trial for crimes against Ukraine, or possibly yes just ending his arrogant existence for the same reason.

  48. 48.

    Nukular Biskits

    Late to the party tonight. Long week.

    @ Adam:  As always, thanks for the info and the effort you put into it. I’m a bit surprised the EU is apparently backing this backdoor UN plan that benefits Russia … or did I misread this?

  49. 49.

    Bill Arnold

    @Marc:
    Yeah, Israel is one of the few countries that regularly engages in extraterritorial assassination of people who are not (Israeli/those country’s) nationals.
    US too, though not as regularly. (D.J. Trump’s assassination of Qasem Soleimani was the most recent major US assassination of this sort. (ETA Wikipedia’s list says that the USA rate is pretty high.))

  54. 54.

    Villago Delenda Est

    Musk is a war criminal, working in collaboration with those engaging in genocide.  Strip him of his citizenship and deport him to Den Haag.  Nationalize StarLink and SpaceX.

  57. 57.

    Nukular Biskits

    Adam, as you understand it (and both your experience and education would lend itself to answer this), what would be the requirements under international law to label someone <… cough … cough … Musk … cough … cough …> a “war criminal”?

  58. 58.

    Sebastian

    @Alison Rose:

    People are missing the actual background story of the stupid CyberTruck.

    In 2019, Musk was fully immersed in his larger-than-life public persona. He was dating Grimes, appeared on red carpets, and the public and press was lapping up every piece of bullshit that came out of his piehole.

    Tesla had launched the Model Y in March 2019 and Musk (and the public) believed that the competition still needed years to catch up. But then came November 2019 and Musk was brutally yanked out of his drug addled complacency:

    Musk learned that Ford would announce a fully electric CUV, the Mach-E in a few days, on November 17th, 2019. Panic ensued and he spearheaded the CyberTruck design team himself (even though Franz von Holzhausen is named as the official designer. FvH designed the S, 3, and Y. It is extremely unlikely that he would have created something so different from Tesla’s previous design language).

    The CyberTruck event was announced for November 19th, 2023, only 48 hours after the planned Ford reveal. A week or so later Ford showed the Mustang Mach-E and two days later was the ridiculous reveal show of the CyberTruck, the one where they broke the bulletproof glass not once but twice.

    Ford then continued to work on the Mach-E and shipped the first US produced Mach-E in December 2020 and the first China-built Mach-E in December 2021. Remember, the Mach-E is a competitor to the Tesla Model Y, not the CyberTruck.

    Ford then announced the Ford F-150 Lightning, the electrified version of America’s most successful vehicle (not just truck, but vehicle!) in May 2021 and started shipping the first F-150 Lightning to dealers on May 16th, 2022.

    In the meantime, Tesla still hasn’t finished the design and testing for the CyberTruck, despite a lot of brouhaha and fake spyshots. The CyberTruck, per Musk, is supposed to ship in September 2023 (i.e. now) but lately Tesla and Musk have been quiet on that topic.

  59. 59.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Nukular Biskits: I think there’s a couple of things. The Secretary-General is probably concerned with the potential for famine in the global south. As for the EU, I expect it has to do with money.

  61. 61.

    Nukular Biskits

    @Adam L Silverman:

    I think, as a general rule, the majority of the Murkan public vastly underestimates the amount of grain that Urkraine provides/provided to the rest of the world, particularly 3rd world nations.

    So … cutting a deal with the Devil, so to speak, would be an arguably justifiable motive for essentially giving Russia a pass.

    Still, from what I’ve read (and I’m doing so after a long week and the consumption of several Southern Pecans), Russia would be getting WAAAAY more out of this “deal” than would Ukraine and the rest of the world.  Just my humble opinion, of course.

  62. 62.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Gravenstone: 

    @patrick II: Not directly. Field corn, or flint corn is not meant for human consumption. It can be used for animal feed, so could indirectly produce beef or pork.

    In point of fact, flint corn is not only a human-grade crop, it is the basis for the versatile coarse cornmeal used throughout Italy and known as polenta. Prepared as a thick mush, it is a delicious starch that is actually more popular than pasta in Northern Italy, and goes well with stews, cheeses and vegetables. It can also be cooled and fried, forming the basis for its own family of crostini. In terms of sheer appetizingness, it could basically drag grits into a dark alley and beat it senseless.

    There is no doubt that it could, in principle, furnish an edible crop to the world, if our agricultural politics were not so screwed up.

  65. 65.

    a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio)

    @Adam L Silverman: I think several of the people you regularly cite at the bird site are using the muskmelon’s program of sharing ad revenue with the blue checks to finance their work—I notice that Ponomarenko, Avdeeva, Special Kherson Cat, and Tatarigami have blue checks, and the latter regularly ends his threads by asking people to like & reblog the first post in a thread, to help finance the purchase of satellite data.
    If they’re managing to twist some elonbucks out of that malignant idiot I wish them well—and try to remember to like & reblog.
    Thanks once again for these posts, prepared so meticulously and insightfully. I’m sorry we are having to rely on your professional expertise like this.

  66. 66.

    frosty

    @Martin: A friend of mine was killed by a logging truck in Texas in the middle of what was our cross-country bike tour. Responding officers recommended a charge of Criminally Negligent Homicide. It went to the DA. Nothing happened. End of story.

    We ended our tour that day.

  67. 67.

    Ruckus

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Had a friend who bought one when they first came out, the big one and he liked it a lot, the inside looked rather nice.

    However.

    I agree with you, I wouldn’t even drive one if you paid me. I sure as hell wouldn’t buy one for what he’s charging for them. OTOH I’m also considering selling my car, considering my age and how much I actually drive any more. The bus service is not bad around here, in LA we have a pretty decent all electric transit train that goes right where I need to go when I go long distance around town and it’s sometimes faster than driving, and when it’s not it isn’t much slower. It is however is always hell of a lot cheaper.

    New subject! I ordered a book that I believe was discussed here called Necessary Trouble by Drew Faust. It just arrived today, so now I have to actually read a book! She’s 2 yrs older than me so I figured that there might be a lot she says which rings a bell for me as well. We’ll see. A side note I ordered it and Amazon said it would be here in 2 or 3 days. That was over 3 1/2 weeks ago. They did email me and let me know about the delay and then earlier this week an actual arrival time. Any one else order it or get it yet?

  69. 69.

    Jinchi

    Do what you need to with tweets. The rest of us can deal with them as we each prefer.

    You’ve got enough on your plate and the Ukraine related posts are work enough without having you do additional work.

    Thanks as always for all your efforts.

  70. 70.

    bookworm1398

    Musk. This whole thing is crazy. The Ukrainian government should be communicating with US govt which will then direct Musk to do C or D. I’m sure most people abroad reading this are thinking that’s kinda what happened and this decision had official US approval. Certainly Raytheon is not telling Ukraine what targets it can use its weapons on, US government is. It’s crazy

  72. 72.

    Ruckus

    @Alison Rose:

    built it out of spare rejected parts from the Tin Man factory……..

    FIXIT for you.

    The tin man looked better than that POS. To be honest it look like elon actually designed it. While having a nightmare. And drunk.

  73. 73.

    Traveller

    @Carlo Graziani:  What Carlo says…I am Very Grateful for your tweet embeds….(some of which I grab and use elsewhere), and the way you extract the text for an easy read….these are serious kindnesses that you give us.

    It is a shame that Mastodon is built as it is, and worse, that Meta with a great opportunity messed up Threads so badly…so we are left with Twitter, “X”.

    I my opinion, use it as you must, (revenues, never great, are down 60%…Musk is suing anyone he can find for his blunders…a sad, unhappy man).

    Good Luck and Thanks Again, Traveller

  76. 76.

    Tony G

    @Yarrow: Maybe it was one of those magic “Fully Self Driving” Teslas.  Speaking of which — why are those poorly designed, deadly hunks of metal still legal at this point?   So much for safety regulations.

  77. 77.

    Adam L Silverman

    @a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio): Yep. And between my vpn and Adblocker and the browser I use, I don’t see any ads, so I’m costing him money. I’m also only using it to get the material for these updates.

    Thank you for the kind words. You are most welcome. And I also wish I didn’t have to do these.

  78. 78.

    Bill Arnold

    @Traveller:

    I my opinion, use it as you must, (revenues, never great, are down 60%…)

    My attitude as well. Twitter/X will need to be greatly reduced in influence (in the USA at least) by the Nov 2024 USA elections. Hoping that Mr. Musk does most of the work though. No particular reason to run from the Nazis yet; still pretty sparse, at least in the areas I using. Have seen precisely one clearcut Nazi in the last 6 months.
    I’ve dropped this link a lot in Ukraine twitter threads over the past few months. Maybe Gin&Tonic can suggest others for variety:
    Russia’s Eliminationist Rhetoric Against Ukraine: A Collection (Updated occasionally)

  80. 80.

    Odie Hugh Manatee

    @Yarrow:

    They are… BMW drivers have gone after bollards (and are losing) so the Tesla drivers have stepped up to take their place.

    Low model number Mercedes drivers are not happy about this.

  82. 82.

    Bill Arnold

    @Odie Hugh Manatee:

    I think we should kick Musk in the nuts first and follow up with nationalizing StarLink.

    FWIW Gwynne Shotwell (SpaceX CEO) has been clear for a while about not wanting military use of Starlink. From her statements, she sounds like an actual pacifist, and some of her key employees may be as well. Her problem is, if you have a worldwide accessible-from-anywhere (well, most anywhere) communications system, then you’ll need World Peace to not be involved in war, or turn off access in war zones, which is itself involvement.
    SpaceX President says she will prevent Starlink from being used for offensive purposes (February 09, 2023)

  83. 83.

    Origuy

    I saw what appeared to be a vehicle carrier with a half dozen Cybertrucks heading north in California. I don’t remember where I was when I saw it. Maybe I-5 south of Sacramento or in the Bay Area. I don’t know if they were just shells, or working vehicles.

  85. 85.

    Thor Heyerdahl

    I do find it interesting that the leak was to Bild – Germany’s largest tabloid and most read paper. Bild is owned by the Axel Springer group who has historically been anti-Soviet and anti-Putin.

    A bit of populism pressure not to cave to Putin?

  86. 86.

    Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom

    @Adam L Silverman: Ah, thank you. I realise I may be cutting the UN far more slack than it deserves. But people are already dying from the collapse of the grain deal. So the UN is getting ever more desperate. ( The news out of Afghanistan is particularly horrific. Tragically, IMHO, only a catastrophe can rid the long suffering Afghans of the Taliban, who are a disaster themselves.)

    So I reserve my ire for the EU.😡 This is why I despise realpolitik. For me, supporting Ukraine is the only moral choice. To betray Ukraine for mere money is genuine evil. I say that as someone who has known real poverty.

    It’s the same reason why I loathe Elmo even more than Putin. He has no excuse except his own ego & hubris. He needs to be arrested, like yesterday.

    Thanks again for all your hard work. I don’t give a shite how you put these updates together. I’m just grateful you continue to do it.

  87. 87.

    Traveller

    @Sebastian:  I am always happy to be shown to be wrong….when I initially looked at threads it seemed to only be available to be used with smart phones, it did not have computer functionality…or so I thought, maybe wrongly.

    But also, why are there never any links to Threads? Occasionally I see Mastodon, which I like, and nitter….which for me has conductiivily problems.

    I believe Jack Dorsey  & team did nice work in the construction of twitter….I am only a very occasional user, with no great knowledge, but it is easy even for me to use, to cut and paste, to respond, whatever.

    Maybe Threads does work, I’ll have to take another look. Best Wishes, Traveller

  89. 89.

    Sebastian

    @Traveller:

    Threads launched a web version a week ago and this week Search went live. Considering the enormous growth and scale they are doing a great job with the platform.

  90. 90.

    Sebastian

    @Bill Arnold:

    But she has no problem taking money to launch military satellites into orbit.

    Shotwell is a nasty piece of work and a scammer just like her CEO.

  91. 91.

    Hangö Kex

    The UN plan to rescue the grain deal was in the news around the time Russia withdrew from it with many of the same details, so not much new has actually been exposed here. The devil is in the details (which we don’t know) though, such as the proposed restoration of some access to SWIFT: a Luxembourg proxy facilitating general sanction busting – which could be what the Russians are actually aiming at here – would be unacceptable, otoh, setting up one to monitor the transactions to limit them to just to Russian grain and fertilizer sales could be legit as those sales add to the global food supply and reduce prices on the world market, which helps the poorest countries, which was the rationale of the deal in the first place: the idea was to keep both the Ukrainian and Russian supply on the market. The publicly stated Russian reason for wrecking the deal is that they have difficulty shipping grain and fertilizer and getting paid for it, because of other sanctions; how sincere these complaints are is difficult to say, but this at least needs an attempt to address them not to risk a Russian propaganda victory in the global South.

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