Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Cole, when it comes to calico cats, restraint is overrated.

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

It’s the corruption, stupid.

We still have time to mess this up!

It’s pointless to bring up problems that can only be solved with a time machine.

Sadly, media malpractice has become standard practice.

Roe isn’t about choice, it’s about freedom.

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires Republicans to act in good faith.

The republican speaker is a slippery little devil.

“In the future, this lab will be a museum. don’t touch it.”

Battle won, war still ongoing.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

It’s a doggy dog world.

I’d try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

Chutkan laughs. Lauro sits back down.

This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

Of course you can have champagne before noon. That’s why orange juice was invented.

The line between political reporting and fan fiction continues to blur.

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 590: The Butcher’s Bill from Hroza

War for Ukraine Day 590: The Butcher’s Bill from Hroza

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Art by NEIVANMADE of a Ukrainian painted black and outlined in blood red kneeling in grief with hands covering the face surrounded by the bodies of Ukrainians killed by Russians on a grey background. "Russia Is Committing Genocide Right Now" is across the top center of the image.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Here’s some of the butcher’s bill from the Russian attack on Hroza yesterday:

The Panteleev family: 4 people killed. A mother, father, grandmother and grandfather. The Kozyr family (in the photo): Five members were killed – Denys and his wife Nina , his grandfather, grandmother, and mother-in-law. At the beginning of the war, Denys and his father, Andriy, went to defend Ukraine. In the summer of 2022, Andriy died. On Thursday, residents of the village of Hroza had gathered for his reburial when a russian ballistic missile hit the cafe where a post-funeral reception was underway. 50 people died on the spot; two more died later from their injuries. In total, this amounted to 1/6 of the population of Hroza. If this is not genocide, then what is?

And part of the new one Russia created this morning in Kharkiv:

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

To win this winter, overcome all difficulties, and provide protection to our people is crucial – address of the President of Ukraine

6 October 2023 – 19:57

I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!

I have just chaired a meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff. Lengthy, with several key issues.

First, of course, the front. The situation on the main fronts, reports from commanders, ammunition supply, and air defense.

The second issue of the Staff meeting directly related to our defense, the resilience of our state.

Energy. Preparing for winter, protecting our generation facilities, ensuring electricity and heat, and restoring everything damaged by Russian strikes and military actions.

The current leadership of Russia always does what it has done before. They repeat all their mistakes. They repeat all the evil they have done. And when things don’t go their way, they think they haven’t done enough evil to succeed. Such insane logic. But we must take this into account. This winter, Russian terrorists will once again try to destroy our energy system. They cannot comprehend that Ukraine will not be subjugated anyway. But they will try to launch more attacks and more attempts to bypass our defenses.

We fully understand the danger.

Today, at the Staff meeting, there were reports from the military and all officials responsible for the defense of our energy and our winter passing strategy. This included the reports of the head of government, ministers, leaders of energy companies, representatives of the communications sector, and regional administration heads. Everything related to the physical protection of facilities, rebuilding, following orders, and the course of action in case of various emergencies. Winning this winter, overcoming all difficulties, and providing protection to our people is crucial. And, by the way, local authorities must fully perform their preparatory work. Next week, we will assess the current state of winter preparedness in the regions.

We are taking further steps to strengthen our air defense and cooperate with partners to ensure the resilience of Ukrainian energy. This week has already seen significant reinforcement.

Germany – we are working with Chancellor Olaf Scholz on transferring another Patriot battery to Ukraine. This will be a significant enhancement.

Italy – I discussed with Giorgia Meloni, the Prime Minister, the content of a new security package for our country. Thank you!

Spain – in negotiations with Mr. Sánchez, the Prime Minister of Spain, we not only agreed on additional Hawk air defense systems but also on support for energy equipment. Thank you!

The United Kingdom – we have a very good agreement with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak regarding security in the Black Sea and Odesa region. It’s important that we don’t waste time and opportunities for export work. Ukraine must maintain its role as a guarantor of global food security and retain maritime access to the world market. I thank the UK for this support.

And, of course, President Emmanuel Macron of France is doing exactly what we agreed on for greater security in Ukraine and all of Europe. There are significant results and new opportunities for our warriors. But as for the details, a bit later.

Today, we also have a decision on a new package from the Netherlands, totaling over EUR 100 million, and this package focuses specifically on supporting our energy system. Shortly, we will discuss our next steps with Prime Minister Mark Rutte. Thank you!

We are also working fruitfully with the European Union. It is important for us from all perspectives to start negotiations on EU membership this year. Ukraine has almost fulfilled the seven recommendations of the European Commission, and everything will be ready from our side. The Verkhovna Rada has one step left, and it is crucial for the deputies to take that step.

The EU for Ukraine is not just economic security and a significant contribution to resolving the geopolitical stability issue. It’s also motivation. Motivation for us, for our warriors, for our entire nation. Motivation to fight, to be resilient, to overcome this winter, and to achieve our national goals despite any Russian terror.

And one more thing.

Kharkiv region… Yesterday, a brutal strike hit a village in Kupiansk district. 51 casualties. The fate of three more people is still unknown. This morning, a Russian strike hit Kharkiv, right in the city, hitting ordinary buildings with a missile. Two casualties, and they were from the same family. A 10-year-old boy and his grandmother. The younger brother of the boy, who is only 11 months old, and their parents are in the hospital. My condolences to everyone whose loved ones and relatives have been killed by Russia…

Yesterday and today, leaders of states and many foreign affairs ministers expressed their condolences and condemned Russian terror. I am grateful to everyone who doesn’t remain indifferent. Only together, in unity, can we overcome terror. And we will do it. States, leaders, and nations.

Many journalists, public figures, and ordinary people have supported us now and continue to support us throughout this war. Ukraine highly values every display of support, every manifestation of solidarity with us. Our victory over Russian terror will be a shared victory of all people in the world who, like Ukrainians, believe that evil and hatred must always be defeated. Always! This must be an unshakable global rule. And it will be.

Glory to our warriors! Glory to all who defend humanity and people!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s a detailed assessment of Russia’s strength in terms of personnel from Tatarigami:

Recently, I’ve tried to refrain from making negative statements about the overall situation. However, over the past two months, I’ve come across a continuous stream of statements that I find not only incorrect but also potentially harmful.

One of the most recent trends I’ve observed is the assertion that the russians lack reserves and are running out of troops. This information is not only inaccurate but also lacks substantiated data on the location and availability of russian reserves.

In the past, I made a similar comment when regiments from the 76th division started moving southward.

Unfortunately, I continue to witness the deployment of additional units and reserves across various parts of the frontline. While I harbor doubts about their potential for an offensive, they appear to be deployed in the areas where Ukrainian forces might breach defenses. Their purpose seems to be slowing down Ukrainian troops and severely limiting their ability to exploit any breakthroughs.

Ultimately, russian forces may not need to advance at this moment but aim to minimize Ukrainian gains from this counter-offensive. They aim to undermine both political and military support for Ukraine.

The enemy remains formidable and capable, despite all their shortcomings. They still possess significant anti-tank capabilities, the ability to deploy remote minefields, employ loitering munitions, maintain artillery and counter-battery capabilities, and continue fortifying their defenses. When individuals push the narrative that the russians are on the verge of collapse and have exhausted their reserves, it fosters unrealistic expectations and diverts attention from the necessity for long-term planning and vision. It can lead to an overemphasis on short-term optimism and hinder the recognition of mistakes, the need for change, or an increase in support.

To an observer, it may seem that advances can continue endlessly. However, this situation underscores the fact that Ukraine does not possess an unlimited supply of ammunition, much of which was provided by South Korea through the US. Furthermore, Ukraine does not have an inexhaustible pool of personnel in the already deployed brigades along the front lines.

Maintaining a healthy optimism is absolutely necessary as our troops make further progress. It’s true that russian troops have suffered severe degradation, and counter-battery fire degraded their artillery capabilities. Their captured soldiers have testified about a lack of discipline and a diminishing will to fight. However, this optimism shouldn’t transform into delusional hopefulness.

Earlier this spring, I cautioned against setting unrealistic expectations and the belief that russian defenses would collapse within weeks or days, leading to celebrations in liberated Crimea. I emphasized that a counter-offensive alone would not win this war and that we needed to plan for the long term. I hope that now, my message will resonate more strongly.

And some follow on Q&A:

More from Hroza:

Kharkiv was hit again today:

Kherson:

Here’s the machine translation of Sternenko’s tweet:

The Russian “analogovnet” self-propelled gun Phlox was hit for the first time 💥

The other day, the Russians said that they are starting to transfer to the army a new development – 2S40 Phlox, which is both a mortar and an artillery installation at the same time.

And now 12 of Ocean’s friends in the Kherson region hit her with a drone that you paid for!
The consequences of the impact are unknown, whether it was destroyed or damaged, because the range of damage exceeds the range of available air reconnaissance equipment.

But the news is still great!

Thanks to the soldiers for their work and to you for your constant donations on drones!
Today we will buy another 100 😏

Bakhmut:

Russian occupied Crimea:

Russian occupied Nikolske:

What’s Russian air defense doing? Shooting Russian military aviation assets down.

Donetsk:

Here’s more justifications from Putin and Russian propagandists:

Illia Ponomarenko points out the logical fallacies and inconsistencies in Russia’s justifications regarding their genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine:

I love the way Russian propaganda spreads two mutually conflicting narratives for the last year and a half:

1. NATO & the US prepared and unleashed a giant proxy war on Russia, and they will give Ukraine absolutely everything so it could destroy Russia.

2. NATO & the US are too weak and undetermined; they don’t have enough resources as they never prepared for a war, they are tired of Ukraine begging for aid all the time, so Ukraine will have a week left to live after they terminate supplies.

I have a couple of questions here.

So, why does Ukraine beg for defense aid for 19 months in the first place if this is somehow a Western war on Russia?

Why is the West so incredibly unprepared, slow, and cautious all this time in terms of sending weapons to Ukraine if this is somehow a Western war on Russia?

Why do Ukraine and its backers around the world have to bang their heads against the wall for months, blandishing the West over every single weapon type it needs, from artillery to munitions, tanks, radars, air defense, missiles, jets, if this is somehow a Western war on Russia?

Why, after a year of U.S. deliberations, Ukraine is only about to get 31 M1 Abrams tanks instead of 301 and has received some 80 Leopard 2 tanks instead of 800 to successfully defeat Russia if this is somehow a Western war on Russia?

Why, 20 months into the full-scale war, the German chancellor is still saying no to Ukraine getting Taurus missiles due to threadbare fear of “escalation” if this is somehow a Western war on Russia?

Why did the West spend almost a year publicly begging Russia not to invade Ukraine, after which Ukraine had to combat Russian blitzkrieg all alone and basically with a handful of NLAWs, Javelins, and Stingers sent weeks and days before the invasion if this is somehow a Western war on Russia?

Why was the West so obsessed with “not provoking Putin,” and why does it strictly prohibit Ukraine from using its weapons to quite legitimately strike military targets in Russian territory if this is somehow a Western war on Russia?

Why is the West so reluctant and inconsistent in introducing really effective and painful sanctions on Russia, such as an oil trade ban that could derail Russia’s war economy, if this is somehow a Western war on Russia?

Why, 20 months into the full-scale war, is the West still struggling to unfold its defense production to keep up with Ukraine’s immense battlefield needs if this is somehow a Western war on Russia?

Why does Ukraine’s artillery still fire around 5,000 rounds a day against Russia’s 15,000 a day while the U.S. reckons to be hopefully producing 24,000 rounds a month by the end of 2024 if this is somehow a Western war on Russia?

Why did Ukraine’s military have to wage a large-scale offensive operation to break through one of the world’s toughest defensive lines with not a single aircraft provided by the West to ensure air support if this is somehow a Western war on Russia?

Why will Ukraine have “a week left to live” after the West drops out if Russia is only fighting a defensive war and if the conquest of Ukraine was suddenly never a plan?

Meanwhile, hundreds, if not thousands, of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and artillery pieces keep collecting dust at storage sites.

Proxy war on Russia, my ass.

If you like what I do, you’re very welcome to support me here: https://buymeacoffee.com/app/payout-settings

The DPRK:

That’s enough for today.

Your daily Patron!

There’s no new tweets or videos from Patron’s accounts today. So here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Army Cats & Dogs account:

 

Here’s the machine translation of the State Emergency Services of Ukraine’s tweet:

Every life is important! Rivne rescuers resuscitated this dog today.

He was taken out of a smoky room during the extinguishing of an apartment in a multi-story residential building.

By that time, the dog had already managed to inhale the smoke and fainted.

With the help of a breathing apparatus on compressed air, specialists of the State Emergency Service resuscitated the animal.

The building was saved from destruction by fire.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

33Comments

  1. 1.

    Alison Rose

    If this is not genocide, then what is?

    I’ve come to believe that the problem isn’t convincing people that a genocide is occurring. It’s convincing them to give a shit. Too many people, in the US and elsewhere, simply don’t care. It’s not happening to them, so they don’t care. Which is why I’m tired of seeing polls showing such-and-such percentage of US voters don’t want us to keep supporting Ukraine. I don’t give a fuck what those sociopathic, soulless, hateful little bottom-dwellers want, and we shouldn’t allow the worst among us to be in the driver’s seat. As I said in yesterday’s post, make all these sacks of shit go to Kharkiv and Hroza and help with clean-up, help with washing the blood off the cement, help with identifying bodies of children and seniors, be in the room while the bodies are being prepared for funerals and burials, when loved ones are told their friend or family member is dead. Make them suffer for their dearth of empathy. It’s the absolute least they deserve to experience.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  2. 2.

    Citizen Alan

    As far as I’m concerned, every single America who isn’t supporting Ukraine secretly wishes Hitler had won World War 2. And a whole lot of them openly agree with my assessment. And there’s enough of them to put the 2024 Presidential election into doubt despite the horrifically obvious flaws that Shitgibbon displays daily.

  4. 4.

    Carlo Graziani

    That DoU video on the tank-infantry cooperative assault to clear the forest is a real gem, full of surprising (to me) insights.

    The Russian’s vaunted artillery doesn’t appear capable of hitting moving targets, or even getting within several hundred yards of them. They hit that road once, out of 20 or more shots, going way wide the rest of the time. I suppose that they could hit pre-registered targets, and perhaps they are a greater danger to dismounted infantry than to armored vehicles, but if they waste ammo at that rate then any reported artillery firing rate comparison that seems lopsidedly in Russia’s favor (like Ponomarenko’s 15000 vs 5000 rounds per day) is highly misleading.

    Also, the Russians don’t appear to have effective anti-tank weapons. That T-80 took up a brazen, unsheltered position in the middle of an open field, and happily fired shell after shell into Russian defensive positions while the Russians looked on helplessly. If the Russians tried a stunt like that they’d get an NLAW down the turret in about a minute.

    Also, they found a defensive minefield and cleared paths through it in a day. And if that unit commander is to be believed, the infantry just sailed through them and rolled up the Russian defense of the forest.

    These guys definitely understand their business.

  5. 5.

    Nukular Biskits

    Excellent info, Adam.  As always.

    Also, can’t say as I disagree with Tatarigami_UA, although I have no particular relevant insight or special knowledge of operations in Ukraine.

  6. 6.

    Bill Arnold

    Re Hroza, appears to have been an Iskander, (low) hypersonic, alleged CEP 1-30 m or 5-7 m depending on model.[1]
    So a deliberate major war crime against civilians. (Also, no military targets were in the village.)
    Are Russians propagandists trying to spin this as an attack on a gathering of officers (obits will document this lie), or a false-flag attack (Ukraine does not have these missiles), or both, or some other lies?
    ‘I knew all of them,’ Hroza residents in grief after deadly strike (Vasco Cotovio, Frederik Pleitgen, Kostyantin Gak and Daniel Hodge, CNN, Fri October 6, 2023)

    A war crimes prosecutor also visited the scene and police investigators cataloged what was left of the Iskander-type missile that struck Hroza.

    [1] Accuracy
    1-30 m (9K720)
    5–7 m (Iskander-M)

  7. 7.

    Bill Arnold

    Re

    A map of the world on the wall of a travel agency in Kherson, damaged as a result of the morning shelling by the russian terrorists.
    A fragment of a projectile hit russia on the map.
    russia disappeared, but the rest of the world survived.

    Make it so. :-)

  8. 8.

    Gin & Tonic

    The man in the middle was a 🇺🇦 soldier killed fighting Russian invaders last summer. When his family reburied him in his home village of Hroza, retaken last Sept from Russian occupation, Russia fired a missile to kill everyone else in this photo, plus 48 other villagers. Medieval pic.twitter.com/sRbParKzLq
    — Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) October 6, 2023

  9. 9.

    AlaskaReader

    @Alison Rose: Too many people are not exposed to the realities of Putin’s invasion.

    Of a certainty, my local news, (TV, radio and papers all three), rarely provide meaningful coverage, and when they do, there’s little credible reality based context to go with it.

    Would that we could have Adam’s daily work also presented daily in all other news sources so that the American public would be as regularly informed as we are fortunate to be.

    I value these daily reports highly and, (not to excuse them), I only wish more Americans would make the effort to acknowledge the world around them.

  11. 11.

    AlaskaReader

    @Alison Rose: I’m not suggesting Adam increase his workload, he’s doing more than can be expected of him, I just wish that his work and other’s similar efforts could be more widely distributed,

    The fact that most people are so detached from the realities around them is a danger to us all and especially a danger to those who deserve our support.

    None more deserving of our support at this time than those attempting to repel invaders.

  13. 13.

    Jay

    Thank you again Adam.

    I “saw” Slava the other day on a UA telegram post, it was good to see his face , hear his voice.

  15. 15.

    Tony G

    About 25% of the people in Kharkiv are ethnic Russian.  The propaganda that the 2022 invasion of Ukraine was somehow triggered by a desire to assist the ethnic Russians in Ukraine is, or course, as empty as the rest of Putin’s lies.

  20. 20.

    Ben Vernia

    [Reposting from this morning] I missed the post last night, so a late question: Ukraine “aid” would not be necessary if frozen Russian assets ($300B?) were simply transferred to Ukraine because of Russia’s war of aggression. Ukraine could then just buy the weapons it needs (at least those whose sale is approved). Is that a possibility?

  21. 21.

    Another Scott

    @Ben Vernia: I’m no expert, but my understanding is that major arms sales have to be approved by Congress.  There are all kinds of export control rules, etc., etc., that have to be followed.  Ukraine can’t simply get stuff like this off of Amazon.  It’s not mostly the money – it’s getting Congress to approve stuff – that’s the issue.

    Remember that Congress earlier passed a “Lend-Lease” arrangement for Ukraine.  We could simply just give them stuff under that act.

    Today, President Joe Biden signed into law the “Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022.”

    The act authorizes the administration, through fiscal year 2023, to lend or lease military equipment to Ukraine and other Eastern European countries. The act would exempt the administration from certain provisions of law that govern the loan or lease of military equipment to foreign countries, such as the five-year limit on the duration of the loan or the requirement that receiving countries pay all costs incurred by the United States in leasing the defense equipment.

    […]

    Fiscal 2023 ended 5 days ago.

    My $0.02.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  23. 23.

    Bill Arnold

    @Betty:
    Thanks. I’ve now reluctantly looked, and this is a good summary as of a day ago at least:

    The general Russian perception of the event has gone from claiming it was an intentional Ukrainian HIMARS attack to create a false flag attack, to now claiming that the cafe was actually full of Aidar soldiers, with Russia carrying a precision strike to take them out.
    — Aric Toler (@AricToler) October 5, 2023

  24. 24.

    Another Scott

    @Adam L Silverman: There’s still stuff happening, but who knows how long it will take.

    RollCall.com (from 10/3):

    Congress’ decision to keep money for Ukraine out of the newly enacted continuing resolution drew global attention as a blow to western political support for Ukraine.

    But the debate over the CR was, in a sense, a warmup. The main event is yet to come: a congressional bout over one or more hefty installments of new Ukraine-related funding.

    The debate over Ukraine funding in the CR was less than met the eye, because, as Pentagon officials acknowledged via email Monday, the Defense Department still has billions of dollars available to help Ukraine in the coming weeks. That comprises, first, authority to send nearly $5.4 billion worth of U.S. military equipment and services to Ukraine. It also includes $1.6 billion in appropriations to replace previously drawn-down U.S. equipment. And it includes an undisclosed additional amount of money that has yet to be spent for newly contracted defense goods and services for Ukraine.

    However, while the CR’s lack of Ukraine money doesn’t appear likely to halt deliveries in the near term, Kyiv still desperately needs more help in 2024 and beyond. Yet Americans, especially hard-right voters, seem to be going wobbly in their support for the war-ravaged nation.

    [Hill worries mount about delays in arming Ukraine]

    The debate over more Ukraine funding could start anew early next month, because the current CR expires Nov. 17. At that point, Congress may clear fiscal 2024 spending bills for the Pentagon and other agencies that could include Ukraine-related appropriations, or there could even be standalone Ukraine legislation. Alternatively, partisan divisions may force lawmakers to clear one or more additional stopgap funding bills, and those measures may or may not contain Ukraine-related appropriations.

    Whether the debate happens in November or in the weeks after that, it is coming.

    Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., a strong advocate for continued U.S. aid to Ukraine, told CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Oct. 1 that he foresees a $60 billion to $70 billion Ukraine aid package coming up for a vote within the next month.

    […]

    Biden’s request sought no new authority to draw down more U.S. equipment immediately under PDA, only funds to replace what had previously been delivered.

    Biden sought about $9.5 billion for several defense purposes in the CR: to backfill U.S. inventories, pay the costs of U.S. military operations tied to Ukraine, and buy new weapons and training under USAI [Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative], which does not arrive in Ukraine nearly as fast as PDA. The Senate bill, including a fraction of Biden’s Ukraine request, also omitted PDA.

    McCord’s letter to Congress said 155mm artillery shells exemplified the kind of assistance in jeopardy. But the shells would have been procured under USAI and so would be newly manufactured, not immediately ready for use.

    That is not to question the importance of providing those shells and other weapons. And a seven-week delay or longer could set back the schedule for providing them later.

    But that is not the same as cutting off something ready to be put on a ship or an airplane tomorrow.

    Billions untapped

    McCord’s letter did not directly mention it explicitly, but the Pentagon has several billion dollars in authority to send ready-to-use weapons to Ukraine under PDA. Specifically, a Pentagon official confirmed on Monday, even with no money in the CR, the department still has authority to send Ukraine nearly $5.4 billion worth of U.S. military weapons and services drawn down from Defense Department stocks from a total of $25.9 billion authorized to date for that purpose.

    Moreover, the Defense Department has $1.6 billion in appropriations left to restock U.S. shelves that have been drawn down in the process, according to McCord’s letter. Yet spending that $1.6 billion is about maintaining U.S. equipment levels and keeping contractors working efficiently – not about what Ukraine would get right away.

    As for the $18.6 billion appropriated so far for USAI, McCord wrote that the Pentagon is “out of” that money.

    However, while the administration apparently has announced plans for what it will do with all $18.6 billion, only $9.1 billion has been put on contract, according to a Sept. 12 Pentagon infographic.

    As for the other $9.5 billion, it is not clear how much has been put to work. The department has authority to spend up to 49 percent of any given contract using those funds, even as the final deal is still being written, an official said.

    While some of the $9.5 billion is being used already under this authority, the official did not immediately say just how much.

    […]

    We’ll see what happens.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  25. 25.

    YY_Sima Qian

    OT, but WTH is happening in Israel?!

    Absolutely shocking that Hamas has managed to conduct such a wide ranging raid/infiltration operations so deeply & successfully into Israel, & that Israel’s intelligence & military seems to have been taken by complete surprise. A sign of the deleterious effects of the political turmoil w/in Israel in recent years?

    Israel, of course, will retaliate w/ a vengeance, but I am afraid it will not lead to any better place for Israelis or Gazans (or Palestinians in general). Naturally, that suits Hamas just fine. & Bibi too? While the surprise Hamas attack will push his corruption & illiberalism out of the limelight, & further bolster rightwing fascists & settler extremists I. Israeli politics, asleep on the job of protecting Israel seems disqualifying.

  26. 26.

    greenergood

    @YY_Sima Qian: 6 October was the 50th anniversary of the start of the Yom Kippur War. It’s difficult to believe that with all the spies that Israel has in Paliestine that the IDF didn’t have a clue that this was going to happen, but perhaps they didn’t realise what a large-scale attack it would be. Or maybe this is a ‘final countdown/bring it on’-type moment for the IDF and a major distraction from the malfunctioning Israeli gov’t.

  27. 27.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @greenergood: Given the amount of opposition Bibi has faced w/in the IDF & the intelligence services, I can’t imagine the latter would allow such a destructive attack to occur just to help Bibi out.

  28. 28.

    greenergood

    @YY_Sima Qian: ​
      Yes, I think the IDF and Bibi don’t exactly see eye-to-eye just now (and not for a while), but to not expect _anything_ on the 50th anniversary would be foolish (?), hubristic (?). Frank Gardner, BBC spook correspondent commented today: ‘Israeli government officials tell me a major investigation is being launched as to how Israeli intelligence failed to see this massive and well coordinated Hamas attack coming.’ Could they really not have had a clue? Anyway, the whole thing is horrible, and many Israelis and many, many Palestinians are dead, or injured, or just plain terrified of the quagmire of violence that is (re)opening.

  29. 29.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @greenergood: We have seen Israeli reserves go on strike to protest Bibi coalition’s power grabs. Current & retired leaders of the IDF & the Shin Bet have warned for months that the domestic political turmoil will leave the country vulnerable.

    Skirmishes between Hamas (& the Islamic Jihad) & Israel along the borders of Gaza throughout this year, largely out of view to the ROW. However, the scale & complexity of this operations I think was thought beyond the capability of Hamas, & would stretch even Hezbullah. The corrupt Fatah will like suffer further crisis in legitimacy.

    The reported kidnapping of numerous Israeli civilians & capture of Israeli soldiers as humans shield hostages could really complicate Israeli retaliation…

    You are right though, that this is an intelligence failure nearly on par w/ the Yom Kippur War.

    Israel will also need to eventually figure out an alternative to keeping the Gaza Strip an open air prison in thrall of & under the total control by the most extreme of Palestinian nationalists & religious fundamentalists. & an alternative that does not involve an occupation & renewed settlement program.

  30. 30.

    NutmegAgain

    @Adam L Silverman: Thank you so much for all this work (commitment, dedication … so many words). It really is such a valuable thing that you are doing here. I really have a hard time grasping the amount of material and information you must sift through to put up each post. And how challenging! in so many ways. Despite the fact that you are an experienced professional in processing this material, it must still be difficult to wade through evidence of genocide and horror all the time. So once again, thank you for all of it.

  31. 31.

    greenergood

    @YY_Sima Qian: I’m guessing that the Isreali gov’t will hatch (one they’ve been wishing for ages) the same solution that their former (German)  enemies did, and the same goal as the Ruzzians for the Ukrainians: promote the concept of their enemies as cockroaches (a la Rwanda) – and then conduct the extermination. Will be interesting how the US gov’t responds …

  32. 32.

    greenergood

    @Adam L Silverman: ​
      Sorry Adam to get into a conversation with Sima Qian about the current Israel-Palestine stuff, if it distracted from your initial posting, just came up at the end of your most recent thread. Thank you for all your amazing work over the past 18+ months – this conversation was just a late thread observation. Being an old, and non-tecchie, I am completely clueless about commenting, but I rely on your daily Ukraine observatIons – they help when I’m talking with people IRL about what’s going on in that part of the world. As for Israel/Palestine, that’s going to be a whole ‘nother conversation in the coffee shops/FB pages in the next few days – sheesh … thanks and best wishes

  33. 33.

    greenergood

    @YY_Sima Qian: My great fear is that the Israelis’ ‘alternative’ will be one that has been seen in history – the idea of a ‘Holocaust’, according to Israel, historically only applies to Israel, while the treatment of the Occupied Territories populations is different, especially because Israel has declared that Palestine literally does not exist (as Palestine has also declared that Israel shouild not exist). Like Myanmar/Uighurs/old version of Armenians, now maybe the new one too, i.e., Ruzzian idea of ‘eliminating’ Ukrainians – I don’t know if genocide has always been part of human history – people always fought each other for territory, but did they always have a strategy of completely eliminating their opposition, rather than just subjugating them?

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