Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

Every day Vance writes another chapter in the book called “Worst VP Pick Ever”.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

Spilling the end game before they can coat it in frankl luntz-approved dogwhistles.

Relentless negativity is not a sign that you are more realistic.

Roe isn’t about choice, it’s about freedom.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the gop

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson is the bland and smiling face of evil.

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

Never forget that he train is barreling down on Trump, even as he dances on the tracks.

Schmidt just says fuck it, opens a tea shop.

This blog will pay for itself.

T R E 4 5 O N

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

This isn’t Democrats spending madly. This is government catching up.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

Republicans in disarray!

The media handbook says “controversial” is the most negative description that can be used for a Republican.

Balloon Juice, where there is always someone who will say you’re doing it wrong.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

There are consequences to being an arrogant, sullen prick.

After dobbs, women are no longer free.

Let me file that under fuck it.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 607: (Some of) You Have Questions, I (May) Have Answers

War for Ukraine Day 607: (Some of) You Have Questions, I (May) Have Answers

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What air defense doing? This:

Two night’s ago Sebastian asked in comments (reposted last night):

IIRC the Ka-52 were a major pain in the behind for Ukrainian armor, forcing them to switch to infantry only advances. Do you think the recent destruction of several Ka-52 and supporting vehicles and the threat of ATACMS, forcing the Russians to establish heli bases even further from the front, is going to have an impact on Ukraine’s tactics or the balance of power along the front?

Putting on my planners hat on, I would expect that Ukraine would put the sequels to their plans in place that are set up to take advantage of Russia moving their attack rotary wing aviation outside of ATACMS range. And this will include being able to move artillery that doesn’t reach as far forward so more Russian charges are within the range of these shorter range munitions. However, the Russians get a vote, because the enemy always does. So I expect that the Ukrainians will wait, observe what Russia actually does, and then adapt to that. While I expect Ukraine will press the advantage, I do not expect they will do so recklessly. Especially as Russia has lots of bodies to throw at the Ukrainians:

Overnight I got an automated email that a new commenter had a comment waiting for approval. For the 8 OCT update. It too was a question:

What is President Zelenskyy’s response to Hamas’ attacks on Israel?

We have covered this at the time, but this was his initial response as reported by al Jazeera:

Zelenskyy told NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly in Copenhagen via video link: “The only difference is that there is a terrorist organisation that attacked Israel and here is a terrorist state that attacked Ukraine. The intentions declared are different, but the essence is the same.”

Ukraine said about 1,000 Iranian-designed Shahed drones were used by Russia over the past six months.

“Iran can’t say it has nothing to do with what is going on in Ukraine if it sells Shaheds to Russia. Iran can’t say it has nothing to do with what is going on in Israel if its officials claim the support of what is going on in Israel,” Zelenskyy said.

As was reported, he also both suggested that all world leaders visit Israel and offered to go himself. Bibi has continued to rebuff President Zelenskyy’s offer because he doesn’t want to be compared to Zelenskyy in person and in real time. He specifically said:

  • Zelensky told reporters on Wednesday that in the early days of Russia’s invasion, it was critical for Ukraine not to feel alone and that international support helped a lot.
  • “This is why I urge all leaders to visit Israel and show their support for the people. I’m not talking about any institutions, but about support for the people who suffered from terrorist attacks and are dying today,” Zelensky said after a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Brussels.
  • “In the face of such a terrorist strike, everyone who values life must stand in solidarity … Israel has the full right to defend itself against terror,” Zelensky said in a statement shortly after the attack.

President Zelenskyy also tied the attacks by Hamas to Russia’s attempts to further destabilize the Levant and through those efforts the global system:

We have data very clearly proving that Russia is interested in inciting war in the Middle East. So that a new source of pain and suffering would erode global unity and exacerbate cleavages and controversies, helping Russia in destroying freedom in Europe.

We can see Russian propagandists gloating. We can see Moscow’s Iranian friends openly extending a helping hand to those who attacked Israel.

All of this represents a much greater threat than the world is currently aware of. The world wars of the past were triggered by local aggressions.

We know how to counter this threat. We have already prepared the necessary steps. And our primary goal is to protect the need for maximum global unity.

At the same time there are 260 Ukrainians trapped within Gaza. Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman, Dmytro Lubinets, made this statement about that situation:

“The Palestinians need to release all Ukrainian citizens, Egypt to accept them and Israel should not conduct any operation at this time, so that the crossing point would be safe,” he said in remarks televised Sunday.

Ukraine’s foreign ministry protested to Israel after Ukrainian citizens were not allowed to evacuate from Gaza on Saturday.

I expect this answer is not going to be satisfying to the person who asked it because there is not an explicit call for support with the Gazan Palestinians, while there was an explicit condemnation of Hamas. However, it is an honest one.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

The world’s attention to Ukraine, to defending freedom and international law must be upheld – address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

23 October 2023 – 20:24

I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!

A brief report for the day.

I held a meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff. The matter, in fact, is only one – the situation in all our fronts.

The front in Avdiyivka… I’m especially grateful to the warriors on this front! Resilience there is a strength for all of Ukraine right now. Maryinka, other directions in Donetsk region. Lyman. Kupiansk. Thank you, warriors!

Separately – the south. Zaporizhzhia region, Kherson and the region, Odesa…

Of course, our state border – east, north. Strengthening the border.

Supply of ammunition to the frontline, including our own supply, Ukrainian production. I thank all enterprises, all workers who contribute to Ukraine’s results – a constant increase in our arms and ammunition production.

I held a meeting regarding the international events and negotiations being prepared by our state for the near future. Tomorrow, in particular, the Crimea Platform, its parliamentary dimension. The world’s attention to Ukraine, to defending freedom and international law, must be upheld – we will do everything for this.

I spoke with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia – a meaningful conversation. Our bilateral relations and relations with the Gulf. The Peace Formula – I invited Saudi Arabia to participate in a meeting in Malta that is being prepared, and I thanked for the significant role in bringing the Global Peace Summit closer.

Of course, we discussed the situation in the Middle East. The main thing is to save as many civilian lives as possible and prevent both a humanitarian catastrophe and the escalation of a wider war.

One more thing.

I want to particularly honor our National Guard warriors today. Those whose courage deserves to be known by all Ukrainians.

The 4th Operational Brigade. Soldier Andriy Martynenko and Senior Soldier Anatoliy Trokhymenko.

The 5th Separate Slobozhanska Brigade. Junior Sergeant Yuriy Posternak and Lieutenant Daniil Lohvynenko.

The 12th Special Purpose Brigade. Soldier Yehor Hriadovkin and Junior Sergeant Rostyslav Romanovsky.

The 14th Operational Brigade. Senior Soldier Orest Kuznetsov and Junior Sergeant Serhiy Matviychuk.

Thank you, guys, and all your comrades! Glory to everyone who fights and works for Ukraine, for our people, for our freedom!

Thanks to everyone in the world who is helping!

Glory to Ukraine!

Avdiivka:

Tatarigami has a new report on Russian losses in Avdiivka. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App.

2/ The actual count of destroyed vehicles is notably higher. We excluded about a dozen vehicles with low to medium confidence due to inconsistent imagery coverage. In some cases, it was impossible to determine if a vehicle had remained in place for a while or was in motionImage
3/ All new lost vehicles are indicated by a red square on the imagery, while old losses that were already present at the end of September are marked with a white square.Image
4/ The overwhelming majority of losses were primarily Armored Fighting Vehicles, including BMP-1 and BMP-2 of various configurations, T-72, T-64, and T-80 tanks in different variations, MT-LB, BTRs, and transport vehicles. In total, these losses amount to 109 vehicles.Image
5/ The operation’s scale and the involvement of multiple brigades strongly indicate that it is being conducted at the army level. We also see some evidence about additional reinforcements being deployed to the Avdiivka area, but further details cannot be disclosed at this time.Image
6/ Despite reports of old equipment use, our team identified a significant presence of modern vehicles and equipment in coordinated battalion-level assaults, further underscoring the operation’s importance for Russian command.Image
7/ Upon analyzing the initial phase, our team concluded it was a long-planned, not a reactionary, operation. The observed patterns suggest Russians invested substantial time and resources, expecting significant losses to achieve their objectiveImage
8/ Despite large losses, the enemy persisted in employing more mechanized forces to develop the limited success they had achieved, with the aim of securing dominant positions, disrupting logistics, and controlling waste heaps.Image
9/ The Russian vehicle losses have now surpassed those incurred during the Siversky Donets crossing in 2022. It’s likely that these losses have already exceeded or will surpass the vehicle losses sustained by the Russians in the Vuheldar area between November 2022 and April 2023.Image
10/ Two independent sources on the ground estimate Russian vehicle losses at around 200. Our current assessment is primarily focused on geospatial evidence, hence, we have chosen not to include this number, as we currently lack supporting satellite imagery for it.Image
11/ However, the situation is far from stable. Russian forces continue to extensively use guided air-dropped bombs and artillery strikes, along with deploying LMUR (Light Multipurpose Guided Rockets). Multiple indicators point to active efforts to sustain the operation.Image
12/ In conclusion, we want to emphasize several key points. This army-level operation, conducted through battalion or battalion-tactical groups, signifies not only the gravity of the operation but also shows an attempt to shift the strategic initiative to the Russian side.Image
13/ The sustainability of these losses is in question, although this approach mirrors what we’ve observed in previous battles like Mariupol, Vuhledar, and Bakhmut when the Russians committed significant human and material resources and were willing to accept enormous lossesImage
14/ The operation originally aimed for a faster outcome and the advancement of Avdiivka through its flanks, but the resistance and skills exhibited by Ukrainian defenders have proven to be far more formidable than the Russians had anticipated in their plans.Image

15/ To access the complete set of imagery, additional information, and a detailed methodology for this assessment, please visit our website:

frontelligence.substack.com/p/avdiivka-rus…
Image

This is a helpful report by the Ukrainian journalist Butusov on the battle of Avdiivka as of late 22 October. It goes over the military formations involved in the battle from both sides and touches upon the current situation. In short, Ukrainian forces withstood what no one else could and held the main defence line, inflicting major losses on the Russian formations, but at a high price. Russian army is still involved with this campaign and will likely continue the pursuit to take Avdiivka.
https://t.me/ButusovPlus/5754

Russian serviceman Dmitry Filatov known as Vozhak Z on Telegram says that Russian soldiers who rotate from Avdiivka return with “empty, icey eyes” after heavy battles. He also says the Avdiivka strongpoint is hidden underground, and little Ukrainian activity is noticed on the surface.
https://t.me/vozhak_Z/465

Here’s the screen grab of Dmitri’s English translation:

Screen grab of an English translation by Dmitri about how the fighting in Avdiivka is affecting Russian soldiers.

Kharkiv:

Sweden is closer to joining NATO:

For you enthusiasts of Russian military equipment going boom:

 

 

Chatham House has just published a new report about Russia’s military vulnerabilities. Here’s the abstract:

  • This paper draws preliminary conclusions about Russia’s warfighting capabilities based on the 12 months since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
  • The first year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exposed key aspects of Russian ground capabilities, several of which the Russian military had itself previously observed but did not successfully address. It is important to separate the consequences of Russia’s poor choices in this war from systemic Russian weaknesses – but those same systemic weaknesses will preclude Russian forces from quickly and effectively rectifying their mistakes.
  • The threats to Western airpower, and therefore to the viability of NATO’s conventional deterrence strategy against Russia, have always been Russia’s ground-based integrated air defence system (IADS) and long-range precision strike capabilities. Both of those have performed broadly as expected in Ukraine.
  • Western sanctions must be better adapted to the nature of the maritime industry: many systems – such as propulsion, sensors and navigation – are still classed as civilian items under the current set of export restrictions.
  • There is still no significant evidence that Russia is trying to reconsider its basic approach towards electronic warfare (EW). Moreover, known EW exercises in 2022–23 focused solely on the tactical defence of frontline positions and command points from adversary units, reconnaissance, and combat unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and loitering munitions.
  • US and NATO defence planners should pay close attention to how adversaries like Russia and possibly China develop and use artificial intelligence (AI) to augment their advantage in mass – the ability to mass firepower and manpower to overwhelm the adversary – as well as exploring what types of existing and new defences can be effective against such developments.
  • Making the Kremlin fail faster on the battlefield is the most effective way to penetrate and disrupt the Russian information space and exacerbate the damage control burden on the Kremlin, as battlefield setbacks will increase the perception–reality gap that the Kremlin’s information operations must bridge. The Kremlin cannot pivot rapidly in the information space, but a reprieve on the battlefield provides an opportunity for the Kremlin to adapt its narratives and leverage its ability to manipulate perceptions.

And here’s the link to the pdf of the full report.

Ukrainska Pravda has published a profile and interview with the Ukrainian grandmother who told the Russians exactly where they could go. Here are some excerpts:

There’s a flip side to Ukrainian hospitality. The uninvited guests who entered Ukraine in tanks were expecting to be greeted with flowers and the traditional bread and salt. Instead, they got curses, Molotov cocktails, bullets and Javelins.

What happened on 25 February 2022 in Myhalky, a village 80 km northwest of the capital, will go down in history as a textbook example of a psyop and non-violent civil resistance. The day after the invasion, when Ukraine’s future was looking bleak, a photograph of a placard at a bus stop began to circulate on social media, and in the mainstream media too.

Someone had written, in a language the Russians could understand: “F**k off out of Ukraine and our village, you bastards!” It was signed “Baba (Granny) Nadia”.

The Russians never got as far as Myhalky. A few kilometres from the village, they were stopped by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and an ancient forest. “And by Baba Nadia’s message,” one of the locals adds.

The image created by this courageous lady, whose identity the media never revealed, instantly became a meme. A Baba Nadia account appeared on Instagram. And Myhalky’s message to the Russians was printed on confectionery labels, T-shirts and sweatshirts.

Who is Baba Nadia, and does she even exist? Ukrainska Pravda reporters went to Myhalky, where they found answers to all their questions.

“There’s a Nadia who lives in the alley”

The bus shelter in the photograph doesn’t have the placard or the “Myhalky” sign on it any more, but there are other features it can be identified by: its left-hand wall is painted in the colours of the Ukrainian flag, and behind it is a field and an abundance of pine trees.

In February 2022, cars full of women, children and pets were driving along this road that passes through the village and goes on to Radomyshl and Zhytomyr, driving past Baba Nadia’s message to the Russians.

“Good afternoon!” we call out to an elderly lady on Shevchenko Street. “We’re journalists from Kyiv looking for your Baba Nadia. Is your name Nadia?”

“I’m Hanna,” the pensioner answers. “Hanna Fedorivna. You want to know who Baba Nadia is? I don’t know. I can’t tell you. I don’t know, honestly! (she laughs).

I saw this woman on TV who gave the katsaps [Russians – ed.] pies that had rat poison in. But I didn’t see that placard because I rarely leave the house. People told me there was one…”

“Well, do you stand in solidarity with Baba Nadia at least?” we ask.

“Of course,” Hanna Fedorivna says. She starts to cry. “If I had the strength and the will, I’d strangle some of them myself. So much tragedy they’ve caused! But I live in hope. I believe in God, I believe in victory. Ukraine will never surrender, that will never happen!”

“I don’t know where Baba Nadia is,” a man standing near his fence says without missing a beat. “Maybe one of the young people wrote it. Ask the starosta (the village head), or go to Piskivka.” [Myhalky is part of the Piskivka hromada – UP.]

“Baba Nadia, Baba Nadia, Baba Nadia,” another local, Yurii Herasymenko, says, trying to remember. “There’s one who lives in the alley. But she wasn’t in the village when that placard appeared.”

When we asked where we should look for the heroic Baba Nadia, one of the assistants gladly enlightens us, beaming happily: “At school, in lessons. She’s a maths teacher. In fact, her name is Tetiana Mykolaivna. She’s a first-rate teacher – a young lady. Well, I say young – she’s the same age as me. I’ll call her now. She’s a good friend of mine.”

“Wait, she’s going to come here and tell you everything,” the shop assistant says as she returns from the utility room after a short phone call. “But she’s going to kill me because I didn’t warn her.

She’s nervous now. She asked: ‘What happened? What happened?’ I told her: ‘Just come straight to the shop after school!’”

“The war will end and we’ll go back to being polite”

Tetiana Mykolaivna Shevchenko was born in 1971. She’s forward-thinking and full of energy. The very woman of whom someone wrote on Facebook in February 2022: “Today, all of us Ukrainian women are Baba Nadia.”

The author of that epic message to the Russians radiates optimism even today. When you talk to her, you’re constantly thinking: Ukrainian children don’t have enough teachers like this.

“Um, I feel very ashamed of those words,” Tetiana immediately warns us. “You know, a teacher using foul language. But it was appropriate at that moment. It was a message in a language the Russians would understand. I wanted to do something harmful to them that day.

We talked about this with the kids last year: some words are obscene, but there’s a time and a place for everything,” “Baba Nadia” continues. I say jokingly: “The war will end and we’ll all go back to being polite again. Because Ukrainians don’t have words like that in our vocabulary.”

24 February 2022 started the same way for Tetiana as it did for everyone else. Someone wrote in the school chat: “Children are to stay at home with their parents until further notice.”

“Everything froze here,” Tetiana recalls. “We’d watch the news and scroll through Telegram. The first thing that struck me was our guys from Zmiinyi (Snake) Island, who so bravely and boldly told that Russian warship where to go. They did it with the kind of humour that’s always been characteristic of the Cossacks – they’re jokers.”

“It was being reported everywhere that they’d all been killed,” Tetiana goes on. “That struck me. They knew what the outcome would be, but they had no fear.

I thought, well, we, the people of Myhalky, could do that just as well. We’d tell the Russians where to go as well once they got here.”

Tetiana made the placard from materials and paint that were left over from the renovation of her house.

“Baba Nadia” carried the wooden frame structure, which only looks light in the famous photo, to the bus stop with her friend, primary school teacher Yuliia Ivanitska.

Tetiana took a picture of the message and posted it as a comment on the Ukrainian General Staff’s Facebook page. It then went viral on social media and got into the mainstream media.

“Why Baba Nadia?” we ask the author of this manifesto. “Is that someone in your family?”

“Yes, it’s my grandmother. Thank God she didn’t live to see such sad times, with Russia attacking us, tearing us to shreds. My grandmother lived near here, in the Malyn district of Zhytomyr Oblast. She loved Ukraine. So did my father.

I also put a second meaning in this message – hope [the meaning of the name Nadiia – ed.]. After all, we hope that victory will be ours. We are waiting for it and working to help it come as soon as possible.”

Much more at the link!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There is a new slideshow at Patron’s official TikTok. Those don’t embed here, so if you want to see it here’s the link.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

18Comments

  1. 1.

    Alison Rose

    Still makes me shake my head that Netanyahu didn’t want Zelenskyy there. Bibi and his minions think they are The Best Jews and the rest of us barely count. He doesn’t want to share breathing space with a man who embodies true Jewish ideals better than Bibi could ever possibly hope to.

    So putin hoped to make the world sour on NATO. Instead, he’s…Swedened it.

    Sorry. I’ll see myself out.

    Thank you as always, Adam. (What does the planner hat look like?)

  2. 2.

    Sebastian

    Thank you, Adam!

    I guess we’ll have to wait a bit to find out why Ukraine made this their first target.

  3. 3.

    Villago Delenda Est

    Not having an NCO corps to speak of, and having a hopelessly corrupt officer corps, these are systemic weaknesses that Ukraine is poised, with western combined arms tactics, to exploit.

  4. 4.

    way2blue

    Since I seem to be the only one still up tonight.  Thank you again Adam for generously sharing your expertise.   Night after night after night…  I was offline the past couple days, visiting family in Truckee, and thankfully missed the Shaun King kerfuffle.  What a douche.

  5. 5.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Alison Rose: What does the planner hat look like?

    Pretty much the same as the line leader hat, but you check out the branch insignia to tell them apart.  Division and above planners in the US Army wear General Staff insignia. A friend of mine noticed I was wearing GS insignia and remarked dryly, “I assume you were ordered to wear that”?  In fact, I was, it was something of a pain to get new branch insignia sewed on to my BDUs, but orders are orders (shrug).

  6. 6.

    Barbara

    I admit that there are some nights when I cannot read these updates, but I too am grateful for your efforts.

  7. 7.

    rekoob

    @Villago Delenda Est: Dad was active duty Army (Judge Advocate General’s Corps) for 3 years, then Army Reserve for 27. He always thought that if he didn’t like civilian life, he could always go back in.

    He was Staff Judge Advocate at an important Reserve command and asked to serve as Chief of Staff (the commanding General saw how good he was). We noted that he signed his own order making him Acting Commander when the Reserve General and his deputy were away.

    He, too, had to replace his insignia when moving from JAG to General Staff.

    He retired from the Army Reserve as a Colonel, but thanks to some well-placed Virginians, they gave him a couple of honorary stars over the years so that he could be the very model of a modern Major General.

  9. 9.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Alison Rose: This is why:

  11. 11.

    StringOnAStick

    I read your posts every night; I feel it’s a moral obligation to give my attention to Ukraine.  I appreciate (most of) the comments as well.

  17. 17.

    sab

    My first husband was Jewish, with grandparents who fled from their Ukrainian shtetl to the American midwest due to pogroms. He despised Ukrainians.

    On the other hand, one of his closest friends was an Israeli sabra whose parents moved to Israel from Ukraine in the 1930s. That man lost all of his cousins in Ukraine in the Holocaust. Their family was warned by the local Ukrainian farmers, but they didn’t believe the warnings because Germans had treated them so much better than the Russians during WWI.

    I haven’t spoken to my first husband in twenty five years. I don’t even know if he is alive. But if he is, I am sure Zeleznyy will have changed his mind about Ukrainians. And changing my first husband’s mind about anything was a major accomplishment.

  18. 18.

    lee

    I’ve been trying to keep up with the news from Avdiivka.

    Russia is not doing very well at all. As bleak as it is described here, my impression is that it is much worse. One opinion on why the Russians seem so determined to take Avdiivka and keep throwing so much at it as they were successful with Bakhmut with similar tactics (carried out by Wagner) and they want to recreate that success with Russian Army forces.

    To me the tweet that there are 400k Russian troops in Ukraine is very disheartening for 2 reasons. One is the obvious that Ukraine is going to have to stop those troops. The other is Russia is already facing a demographic collapse and this is only going to make things worse. If things get worse there is no telling what Putin is going to do.

Comments are closed.