Quick housekeeping note: there was a robust discussion of the Israel-Hamas war of 2023 in the comments last night. That’s not an issue or problem. That said, provided I have the time and energy tomorrow I’ll try to do an update on that war as well as the usual Ukraine war updates. I can’t promise I’ll get to it, but if I can I will.
It’s been a weird couple of days in Ukraine. Yesterday we covered President Zelenskyy reshuffling the commanding general of Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces. Apparently that’s not the only Ukrainian general officer that has questions regarding his performance. Tatarigami has lit into Colonel-General Syrskyi:
In yesterday's speech, President Zelensky stated that he has ordered a reshuffle in the command structure of the Armed Forces. However, until General Syrski, widely disrespected within the army, is replaced, substantial improvements are unlikely.
General Syrski's leadership is… pic.twitter.com/Ch54wXFHQz
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 4, 2023
In yesterday’s speech, President Zelensky stated that he has ordered a reshuffle in the command structure of the Armed Forces.
However, until General Syrski, widely disrespected within the army, is replaced, substantial improvements are unlikely.General Syrski’s leadership is bankrupt, his presence or orders coming from his name are demoralizing, and he undermines trust in the command in general. His relentless pursuit of tactical gains constantly depletes our valuable human resources, resulting in tactical advances such as capturing tree lines or small villages, with no operational goals in mind. This approach creates a never-ending cycle of fruitless assaults that drain personnel. His failure to withdraw troops from Bakhmut in a timely manner earlier this year, coupled with his obsession to retake it, by utilizing Wagner Group’s tactics, further depletes our resources and has more far-reaching consequences than people might realize.
Yes. Hard to expect anything else from Moscow Academy graduate
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 4, 2023
I don't know much to comment, but it was surprising
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 4, 2023
Someone also decided to muster twenty Soldiers out in the open for an awards ceremony. This was, as you can imagine, a bad idea:
Just unbelievable.
At least over 20 Ukrainian troops with the 128th Mountain Infantry were killed in a Russian missile strike.
The command mustered many troops in one place in the open for an Artillery Day decoration ceremony.
The result is the tragedy.
It's absolutely wild…— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 4, 2023
Just unbelievable.
At least over 20 Ukrainian troops with the 128th Mountain Infantry were killed in a Russian missile strike.
The command mustered many troops in one place in the open for an Artillery Day decoration ceremony.
The result is the tragedy.
It’s absolutely wild that such things still happen 20 months into the full-scale war with Russia.
Just pure Soviet-style snafu mess, and certain heads must now finally roll.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed an attack with an Iskander-M missile on personnel of the 128th mountain assault brigade, as a result of which servicemen were killed during a decoration ceremony. pic.twitter.com/6msSVIyoZ3
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) November 4, 2023
Tatarigami, as well as others, have written about the differences between those senior Ukrainian leaders who went through the Soviet and immediate post-Soviet Russian professional military education (PME) system and those who did not. This has included GEN Zaluzhnyi in his interview with The Economist last spring, which we covered in an update shortly after it was published. These discussions have included moving beyond and away from what was learned in the Soviet PME system for those that did go through it, as well as the challenges for Ukrainian Soldiers who have come up over the past nine years and have learned a different way of war on the battlefield. So it is not surprising that there are still unfortunate mishaps or that officers like Tatarigami, who has learned this different way of war while at war, is critical of more senior leaders that appear (to him) stuck within their Soviet education and training.
For those who may think it is terrible for this to come out or be amplified, I would argue that it is far healthier for these discussions to happen in the open than to either get buried or not happen at all. There are always going to be disgruntled Soldiers, but it doesn’t mean that some of them are not right in their assessments of their leaders and those leaders’ performances. As long as the criticisms and complaints do not lead to a break down in good order and discipline, this is not and will not be an issue.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Ukraine can accomplish significant achievements when working together in the interests of its independence and all Ukrainians – President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s address
4 November 2023 – 17:32
Dear Ukrainians, I wish you good health!
Today, a very important visit took place. Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission. Just before the European Commission’s report on our compliance with the recommendations for opening accession negotiations. We expect such a political decision later this year.
We have been very active throughout the year in fulfilling these recommendations. We have passed legislation, implemented systemic solutions, and are strengthening our state institutions. We are providing law enforcement and anti-corruption agencies with more opportunities to work effectively. We have also addressed the issues of national communities. The full spectrum defined by the European Commission.
However, I want to emphasize that this is not something that someone in Europe, in Brussels, tells Ukraine to do. The transformation of our state is something that we need ourselves.
Ukraine has passed an enormous path – from a point where many didn’t believe in the possibility of our alignment with the European Union during a full-scale war to achieving the status of a candidate country at record speed and fulfilling the necessary prerequisites for opening negotiations.
This is proof, time and time again, that Ukraine can accomplish significant achievements when working unitedly, confidently, in the interests of our independence and all Ukrainians. We continue to transform our state to be genuinely prepared for full EU accession, adapting all our institutions, all our standards to European rules.
As of now, we understand the next steps our country will take. Today, after the meeting with Ursula von der Leyen, I’ve already mentioned some of them, such as a bill that provides the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office with more opportunities to work effectively and a lobbying law, which should have been enacted decades ago. We will address other necessary issues as well.
We all in Ukraine should already get used to the fact that our domestic policy is the policy of European integration, and it is what brings us closer to the moment when the Ukrainian flag will be in Brussels alongside all the other flags of EU member states. Today, from the President of the European Commission, I heard positive signals regarding our progress towards the start of negotiations.
Of course, we discussed all our fundamental issues: support for Ukraine – long-lasting and diverse, new sanctions against the occupier, our joint efforts regarding frozen Russian assets, which should be used to compensate for the damage from Russian aggression.
I thank President von der Leyen for her strong and principled support.
One more thing for today.
In the morning, I had the honor of joining Ursula in congratulating our railway workers on their professional day. Now, during the full-scale war, it has become evident to everyone just how important the work of our railway workers is for the country and the normal lives of our people.
It goes beyond just transportation; it is one of the cornerstones of our resilience. It is a salvation of people. It often involves the heroism of many men and women who, under constant threat and particularly in the early weeks of the full-scale war, continued to work for the sake of people and our defense.
It is crucial to remember each and every one who has dedicated their life to ensure Ukraine’s endurance. Different people. Our heroes on the frontlines. People of various professions who contribute. We must be grateful. We must preserve unity. We must ensure that we walk together the path destined for us by our fate. To protect Ukraine and pass on a guaranteed safe life to our children, grandchildren.
Glory to all who fight for Ukraine! Warriors, I thank you! I thank everyone who helps!
Ukraine is and will remain independent and free. I am confident in this.
Glory to Ukraine!
The cost:
Ruslana Danilkina joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine as the large-scale war broke out. She was eighteen at the time.
On February 10, 2023, she lost her left leg in a missile attack in the Kherson region.
She now works at the center for prosthetics, reconstructive surgery,… pic.twitter.com/LAQB1PnO1E— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 4, 2023
Ruslana Danilkina joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine as the large-scale war broke out. She was eighteen at the time.
On February 10, 2023, she lost her left leg in a missile attack in the Kherson region.
She now works at the center for prosthetics, reconstructive surgery, rehabilitation, and psychological care for war victims @superhumans_com.
Tonight, Russia attacked Ukraine with Iskander-K missiles. As a result of air defense, 3 missiles were shot down. It is not mentioned how much were launched in the first place. pic.twitter.com/HWRw5DVkna
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) November 4, 2023
I can tell you all one place in Europe that definitely has not seen an uptick in antisemitic violence in the last few weeks – Ukraine.
After everything that has been said about this country and her people, I feel like this should be more widely acknowledged.
— Oz Katerji (@OzKaterji) November 4, 2023
Tatarigami also has some thoughts on the anonymous US and European officials that are once again suggesting Ukraine should start negotiating an end to the war with Russia. Here are the details from NBC’s reporting: (emphasis mine)
WASHINGTON — U.S. and European officials have begun quietly talking to the Ukrainian government about what possible peace negotiations with Russia might entail to end the war, according to one current senior U.S. official and one former senior U.S. official familiar with the discussions.
The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal, the officials said. Some of the talks, which officials described as delicate, took place last month during a meeting of representatives from more than 50 nations supporting Ukraine, including NATO members, known as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the officials said.
The discussions are an acknowledgment of the dynamics militarily on the ground in Ukraine and politically in the U.S. and Europe, officials said.
They began amid concerns among U.S. and European officials that the war has reached a stalemate and about the ability to continue providing aid to Ukraine, officials said. Biden administration officials also are worried that Ukraine is running out of forces, while Russia has a seemingly endless supply, officials said. Ukraine is also struggling with recruiting and has recently seen public protests about some of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s open-ended conscription requirements.
And there is unease in the U.S. government with how much less public attention the war in Ukraine has garnered since the Israel-Hamas war began nearly a month ago, the officials said. Officials fear that shift could make securing additional aid for Kyiv more difficult.
Some U.S. military officials have privately begun using the term “stalemate” to describe the current battle in Ukraine, with some saying it may come down to which side can maintain a military force the longest. Neither side is making large strides on the battlefield, which some U.S. officials now describe as a war of inches. Officials also have privately said Ukraine likely only has until the end of the year or shortly thereafter before more urgent discussions about peace negotiations should begin. U.S. officials have shared their views on such a timeline with European allies, officials said.
“Any decisions about negotiations are up to Ukraine,” Adrienne Watson, spokesperson for the National Security Council, said in a statement. “We are focused on continuing to stand strongly in support of Ukraine as they defend their freedom and independence against Russian aggression.”
An administration official also noted that the U.S. has participated with Ukraine in discussions of its peace summit framework but said the White House “is not aware of any other conversations with Ukraine about negotiations at the moment.”
The Biden administration does not have any indication that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to negotiate with Ukraine, two U.S. officials said. Western officials say Putin still believes he can “wait out the West,” or keep fighting until the U.S. and its allies lose domestic support for funding Ukraine or the struggle to supply Kyiv with weapons and ammunition becomes too costly, officials said.
Both Ukraine and Russia are struggling to keep up with military supplies. Russia has ramped up production of artillery rounds, and, over the next couple years may be able to produce 2 million shells per year, according to a Western official. But Russia fired an estimated 10 million rounds in Ukraine last year, the official said, so it will also have to rely on other countries.
The Biden administration has spent $43.9 billion on security assistance for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, according to the Pentagon. A U.S. official says the administration has about $5 billion left to send to Ukraine before money runs out. There would be no aid left for Ukraine if the administration hadn’t said it found a $6.2 billion accounting error from months of over-valuing equipment sent to Kyiv.
A Gallup poll released this week shows decreasing support for sending additional aid to Ukraine, with 41% of Americans saying the U.S. is doing too much to help Kyiv. That’s a significant change from just three months ago when 24% of Americans said they felt that way. The poll also found that 33% of Americans think the U.S. is doing the right amount for Ukraine, while 25% said the U.S. is not doing enough.
Public sentiment toward assisting Ukraine is also starting to soften in Europe.
As incentive for Zelenskyy to consider negotiations, NATO could offer Kyiv some security guarantees, even without Ukraine formally becoming part of the alliance, officials said. That way, officials said, the Ukrainians could be assured that Russia would be deterred from invading again.
In August national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters, “We do not assess that the conflict is a stalemate.” Instead, Sullivan said, Ukraine is taking territory on a “methodical, systematic basis.”
But a Western official acknowledged there has not been a lot of movement by either side in some time, and with the cold weather approaching it will be tough for either Ukraine or Russia to break that pattern. The official said it will not be impossible, but it will be difficult.
U.S. officials also assess that Russia will attempt to hit critical infrastructure in Ukraine again this winter, attempting to force some civilians to endure a frigid winter without heat or power.
Administration officials expect Ukraine to want more time to fight on the battlefield, particularly with new, heavier equipment, “but there’s a growing sense that it’s too late, and it’s time to do a deal,” the former senior administration official said. It is not certain that Ukraine would mount another spring offensive.
One senior administration official pushed back on any notion of the U.S. nudging Ukraine toward talks. The Ukrainians, the official said, “are on the clock in terms of weather, but they are not on the clock in terms of geopolitics.”
Always nice when no one is on the record except the National Security Council spokeswoman.
Here is how President Zelenskyy responded:
Zelenskyi commented on the rumors about so called negotations.
"I don't know where it comes from and who writes it. Everyone knows my attitude, the opinion of Ukrainian society towards such things. We have repeatedly heard that they are allegedly inciting us to do something in… https://t.co/G4j7DViOyQ pic.twitter.com/uNCqETUf1l
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) November 4, 2023
Zelenskyi commented on the rumors about so called negotations.
“I don’t know where it comes from and who writes it. Everyone knows my attitude, the opinion of Ukrainian society towards such things. We have repeatedly heard that they are allegedly inciting us to do something in Ramstein, but there is no such thing and there will be no such thing.”
Here’s Tatarigami’s response: (emphasis mine)
NBC recently published an article titled: "U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say."
Once again, we find ourselves discussing weak politicians who are looking for a solution by appeasing the aggressor.
If the U.S. and Europe were to…
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 4, 2023
NBC recently published an article titled: “U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say.”
Once again, we find ourselves discussing weak politicians who are looking for a solution by appeasing the aggressor.
If the U.S. and Europe were to pressure Ukraine into making territorial concessions (which could be highly unpopular within Ukraine, placing immense political pressure on the President), it might only strengthen Putin’s belief in the West’s weakness.
In 2014, the annexation of Crimea and the occupation of Donbas was met with a weak response, further encouraging Putin to the events in 2022.
Unfortunately, there seem to be no diplomatic solutions that can lead to a positive outcome. It’s difficult to envision a scenario where peace can be achieved in Europe if Putin’s demands are met.
Even if Russia or Putin were to provide security guarantees, their past actions, such as violating the Budapest Memorandum and “security guarantees” to Prigozhin, make these assurances meaningless.
It’s uncertain how any “agreement” could ensure Ukraine’s safety. Russia will spend the coming years strengthening its military, while Western support for Ukraine, already dwindling during wartime, could be even scarcer during peacetime.
This can only encourage the known pattern:
– Invade a country.
– Use the threat of nuclear escalation to pressure the West.
– Wear down the West until they concede.
– Repeat.To prevent long-term instability in Europe, sporadic conflicts and even another large-scale war between Ukraine and Russia, the focus should start shifting from pressuring Ukraine to concede territories into providing enough support to Ukraine in order to win. This support could enable Ukraine to inflict sufficient damage on Russia, compelling them to withdraw, as seen in cases like Kherson and Kharkiv.
Anything else is a search for easy but wrong decisions, political cuckoldism and decadence.
Tatarigami is absolutely correct here. There will eventually come a time when it may be possible to negotiate the terms that end Russia’s war on Ukraine, but that time is not now. While Ukraine’s offensive continues to make slow but difficult progress, negotiating an end to the war now will only freeze the conflict and reward Russia and Putin. That is not setting the conditions for winning the peace. Rather, it is sacrificing Ukraine and Ukrainians to the desire for everything to just go back to normal and a return to business as usual. This would be a strategic mistake of galactic proportions.
The Russian occupied Kerch Shipyards:
It’s not the bridge but the shipyard of Kerch. Fire can be seen to engulf the buildings at the harbor. I also think that at least 2 missiles were involved.
Eye witnesses on the ground report that missiles similar in configuration of a Tu-141 have been seen, but if that is that… pic.twitter.com/0Wt3gUrq1c
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 4, 2023
It’s not the bridge but the shipyard of Kerch. Fire can be seen to engulf the buildings at the harbor. I also think that at least 2 missiles were involved.
Eye witnesses on the ground report that missiles similar in configuration of a Tu-141 have been seen, but if that is that case then I think those were fired to saturate and distract the Russian air defense.
Source: https://t.me/Crimeanwind
Kerch Shipyard reportedly hit by missiles, despite having the most advanced Russian warship, Askold, docked there. More air defense doesn't seem to help much. pic.twitter.com/lVW0Dru97u
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 4, 2023
/4. Approximate geolocation of the fire/targeted area in Kerch shipyard https://t.co/D2riyxlmpE pic.twitter.com/ausV9UAHe3
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 4, 2023
Russian MoD confirmed that a ship was “damaged” during todays missile attack on Kerch shipyard.
Earlier, Ukrainian sources reported that Russian Karakurt-class corvette Project 22800 «Askold» was targeted. Presumably SCALP missiles were used during the attack.Construction of… https://t.co/UrtZ9xCgUp pic.twitter.com/0n6ROXZm3l
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 4, 2023
Russian MoD confirmed that a ship was “damaged” during todays missile attack on Kerch shipyard.
Earlier, Ukrainian sources reported that Russian Karakurt-class corvette Project 22800 «Askold» was targeted. Presumably SCALP missiles were used during the attack.Construction of Askold began at the Zaliv shipyard in Kerch on July 26, 2016. The ship was launched in September 2021, but work on the ship was still ongoing. It’s worth mention that Project 22800 Karakurt is armed with 2 × 4 UKSK VLS cells for Kalibr or Oniks anti-ship cruise missiles.
The Commander of the Air Force of Ukraine hinted that SCALP missiles were used in today's attack on Kerch shipyard. https://t.co/uLJHR6BT2o pic.twitter.com/lzaKW0Lnyx
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 4, 2023
According to this source the Russian missile ship “Askold”, a Karakurt class corvette, has been hit by three missiles, while being in the Kerch shipyard. This ship class is capable of firing Kalibr or Onyx missiles.
Source: https://t.co/8TFFuhonk9#Ukraine #Crimea #Kerch pic.twitter.com/mVAn3QIvEf
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 4, 2023
Krynky, Left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson:
Krynky on the left bank of the Kherson region. Heavy fighting is going on in the area. The settlement itself is mostly destroyed. pic.twitter.com/9MBorY6Xai
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) November 4, 2023
For you Ukrainian rail enthusiasts:
Over 4 million people evacuated from war zones, thousands of tons of humanitarian aid delivered. Ukrzaliznytsia's resilience is an inspiration.
Evacuation car from Irpin, now on Mykhailivska Square, stands as a reminder of Ukrzaliznytsia's heroic efforts. Thank you, Ukrainian… pic.twitter.com/RbqWK0ev0d
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 4, 2023
Over 4 million people evacuated from war zones, thousands of tons of humanitarian aid delivered. Ukrzaliznytsia’s resilience is an inspiration.
Evacuation car from Irpin, now on Mykhailivska Square, stands as a reminder of Ukrzaliznytsia’s heroic efforts. Thank you, Ukrainian railway workers!
Some more red leg porn for Omnes:
Eight Swedish Archer artillery systems have been delivered to Ukraine https://t.co/Spb4dqgzkX pic.twitter.com/ORzmsSyefj
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 4, 2023
That’s enough for today.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos, but there are some additional photos of Patron’s meeting with the Japanese ambassador from the middle of October from his official Instagram account. That post won’t embed here, so if you want to see it click through.
Open thread!
Chetan Murthy
On cashiering generals: I remember during the Iraq War, Tom Ricks wrote about how historically the US used to cashier generals all the time: Lincoln did it, and also during WWII. But (IIRC) sometime either during or after the Vietnam War, it stopped. So regardless of how awfully a general performed, he could be assured of a nice, cushy career. IIRC Ricks identified this as a real problem and the root of many of our failings in the Iraq War.
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy: Tom’s correct. And a friend.
Gin & Tonic
Ukrzaliznytsia is great. Two weeks ago my son was taking Deutsche Bahn from Brussels to Köln and it was a complete shitshow, during which he’d texted me to say he’d never had a late or cancelled train on Ukrzaliznytsia. For that matter, neither have I.
in other news, two weeks ago a friend of my wife’s in Ukraine got engaged. Yesterday her fiancé was KIA.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
I am sorry for your and Ukraine’s loss.
Sally
A freeze, or a truce, or any negotiated hold on the war is not trading land for peace, but people for peace. There was a discussion of the lives of Ru soldiers in the occupied areas, in conjunction with reactions from their wives and girlfriends, who generally support them. The summary of the soldiers lives was “rape, bars and drugs”. On Ukraine:The Latest podcast they talked bout how successful some deals have been, particularly citing South Korea. But does everyone forget North Korea?!!! I feel like shouting. Ask the North Koreans, are they happy with the deal they are subjected to? Even in my understanding of Vietnam, a lot of Vietnamese were killed, or fled after that deal. I believe that Ukrainians do not want to surrender their countrymen in the occupied areas to Ru misery, torture, death, and transportation to poor, miserable regions of Russia. As for example many Crimean Tartars have been subject to. Even Hong Kong has not worked out, Hong Kongers consider that they have been sacrificed to keep the peace with China.
It is also sacrificing important parts of the Ukrainian economy, agriculture, steel, hydrocarbons. It is not Terra Nullius there.
I refuse to call it “Land for Peace”. It is sacrificing lives for peace, and Ukranainians know that. Some still have relatives in those regions and do not want to lose them as South Koreans lost their siblings, parents, friends.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I’m so sorry to read that.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Philbert
@Chetan Murthy: that was in Rick’s book ‘The Generals’. In ww2 if a general wasn’t cutting it, there was plenty else down a notch he could do. Seems that since, minus such an enormous war, it’s up or out.
Yarrow
@Gin & Tonic: Very sorry to hear this. Condolences.
Yarrow
The Japanese ambassador looks very happy to meet Patron. I like that Patron is meeting toy dog Patron.
Grumpy Old Railroader
Thanks Adam. I don’t say that enough.
If I learned anything while serving in an infantry company in Vietnam it was to NOT trust officers above the Army rank of Captain. Maybe our company was an exception but the platoon leaders (Lieutenants) listened to what the NCOs had to say. As (eventually) the Company’s Head Medic, I got to listen to lots of scuttlebutt between the officers and NCOs.
There may have been some fine general officers but that was not my experience, including the single West Point Lieutenant who briefly graced us with his presence and let everybody around him know that he was smarter and braver than anybody else. Even the CO couldn’t stand him.
Sebastian
I have to admit, the story about Gen Syrski is not what I was hoping for. Quite disappointed.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: Yeah, it’s a well-known dynamic from the WWII US Army. Initially it was well-justified, because the descent on North Africa demonstrated that in the interwar period many officers who had survived as senior commanders in the much-diminished US Army were not competent combat commanders. Fredendall’s pathetically inept performance at the Kasserine Pass was just the tip of the iceberg. It was clearly an absolute necessity to purge deadwood, and to promote newly-experienced captains, majors, and colonels as fast as possible to create general-rank officers who understood the new warfare.
Later, in Europe, this pattern of punishing failure by removing generals was pushed too far, as it encouraged very conservative decision-making and risk-averse generalship, and gave scope to very mediocre senior commanders (such as First Army commander Courtney Hodges) to blame their subordinate corps and divisional commanders for their own operational failures.
There’s a fine line to tread, obviously. The bifurcated habits of mind of the UA general rank-officers are a problem that has been clearly identified (Kofman and Lee have been writing extensively about this since at least the Spring of this year) and may justify energetic measures to remove commanders who are unable to adapt to modern conditions, whether because of their Warsaw-Pact mentality or for other reasons. But it is necessary also to remember that decisions in war are about ruthless calculated risk-taking, and that no matter how finely a risk is calculated, the outcome is necessarily uncertain. It is not good military management to remove generals for bad outcomes—only bad calculations, and inability to learn from mistakes, really justify removal.
YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic: Ugh! Sorry sorry to hear that!
On the subject of the Deutsche Bahn, I keep hearing stories about how dysfunctional it has become, which I can’t quite wrap my head around. If there is one thing one figure that the Germans will remain good at is keeping the trains running on time, especially considering its well developed high speed rail system.
My only experience w/ European rail net works was in Czechia, which was rather befuddling. We took the trains fairly extensively, but the majority of the train rides ended up w/ a transfer to buses half way through. Since few of the conductors spoke English (never mind Mandarin Chinese, ha!), we never quite understood the reason.
I had also taken the express train from Oslo Airport into downtown, which was quite convenient, but hardly representative.
YY_Sima Qian
It’s one thing to hold hypothetical discussions concerning the parameters of a potential peace deal down the line, but why do these talks always leak so quickly? Since Putin clearly has no interest in negotiating right now, anything that might be perceived or spun as the West pressuring Ukraine to talk only serves to weaken Ukraine’s position. Diplomatic malpractice.
Even if most of Ukraine’s supporters do not believe Ukraine can recover all its sovereign territory purely through the force of arms, Ukraine has go into any negotiation on the back of a series of battlefield victories, to be in the strongest position.
& Ukrainian strikes are making the Russian presence on Crimea increasingly untenable, more of a millstone than a strategic asset that allows Russia to dominate the Black Sea. Surely not a development many foresaw. Maybe a Putin successor decides it is more trouble to keep than is worth, & cedes control for more sanctions relief.
way2blue
I’ve listened to a couple podcasts recently that might be of interest (apologies if they’ve been noted previously). The first is: ‘Foreign Office’ with Michael Weiss talking to Dr Anthony Tingle (US Air Force Academy) who had just returned from the front in Ukraine—close enough to worry about snipers. A sobering discussion. The second is: ‘The Lincoln Project’ with Reed Galen talking to Daniel Barkhuff (former Navy SEAL; now an ED MD) who shares his thinking about Hamas, Gaza, IDF, Netanyahu… in the first part of the podcast. I found his insights into Hamas’ long-term strategy useful framing as the conflict rages on.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/behind-the-front-lines-in-ukraine-a-conversation
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-arsenal-of-democracy-with-daniel-barkhuff
Martin
@YY_Sima Qian: Good evening. I meant to respond to a comment last night, but dad responsibilities intervened.
EVs are not considered disruptive to ICEs. They are considered a sustaining innovation – they fit nicely into the existing business models and help extend the overall dominance of the incumbents. Sure, Tesla pushed forward faster than the incumbents, but he didn’t fundamentally change the underlying market. You still buy cars the same way, from the same places, with the same mechanisms, and use them in the same way. The main problem right now isn’t that the incumbents are unable to catch up, it’s that Tesla is still an upmarket vehicle and cars are so inefficient with the use of battery tech that other markets are able to drive battery prices above what car buyers can really afford – basically the whole bottom half of the market.
E-bikes *might* be that disruption. They’re outselling EVs pretty handily in the US, and far more than that in Europe and parts of Asia. They give better bang/buck for contained battery components. They serve as a low-end disruption, giving consumers that are priced out of the auto market a transportation option that is otherwise completely lacking in the US, and they fundamentally undercut the public subsidies to the auto market – taxpayer provided roads, free parking, etc.
If the combination of e-bikes, public transit, and urban planning can come together, the basic infrastructure that makes cars (ICE or EV) convenient get turned into liabilities for cars. And if you look at urban planning projects around the US and world in this space, you see business cores turning against parking because they generate more revenue with pedestrian/bike/transit than parking. Cities are closing their centers to cars. Road infrastructure is being removed to improve public safety, etc. It’s not a 1-1 replacement, but it’s enough of a shift in public support and providing a better option for anyone not old enough to drive, people who live in reasonably dense areas (about ¾ of the US population), people who don’t have the income to buy and maintain a car (median car price is now $47K, median monthly expense is now over $1000/mo), etc.
That’s the pressure you’re really seeing in the market. Automakers are abandoning the low end of the market because there are better profits to be had upmarket, and investors want their profits now believing that there’s no way the car market could possibly suffer in the longer term.
EVs are most likely to serve the role of keeping the auto industry afloat, but not thriving. There are serious problems with charging infrastructure mostly due to there not being good business models, and the US unlikely to socialize the service. The cost is not dropping, mainly because automakers insist on making larger and larger vehicles that are resulting in battery growth not really making more vehicles, just bigger ones. And economically, the whole enterprise is falling apart – from affordability for consumers, to convenience, to supply chain. But if you take the view that at some point we *will* solve climate change, EVs don’t reduce emissions enough, leading to problems like Norway now trying to discourage them (EVs are 80% of Norways car sales).
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Tatarigami_UA has been critical of Gen. Syrski for quite a while now, but I think a review or some of the battles suggests that at least some of the criticism may be warranted.
Once the Russians seized the high ground flanking Bakhmut, the Ukrainian position in the city was untenable, & the obvious course of actions would have been to pull back from the city to conserve the Ukrainian Army’s precious fighting strength. This was pointed out by numerous analysts at the time. The battle started w/ lopsided exchange ratio in Ukraine’s favor, but toward the end if Ukraine was losing 1 regular or even experienced TDF soldier for 3 Wagner convict the it was not an exchange Ukraine could sustain.
The Ukrainian Army really bled the Russians at Sieverodonesk, but as it withdrew across the river the Russians breached the flanks & the Ukrainian Army units had to beat a hasty retreat to avoid being surrounded. It lost a golden opportunity to hold Lychychansk, on the high ground and behind a major water barrier, to bleed the Russians a lot more. That suggests to me (as an amateur armchair) that too much focus was placed on the meat grinder in Sieverodonesk, at the expense of shoring up flank positions.
Almost nothing on the Russian side to date is the result of any kind of realistic planning (other than perhaps the construction of the Surovikhin Lines), but we should not fall into the belief that everything on the Ukrainian side is the result of deliberate & calculated intent, & that its war effort has not been hampered by incompetence, corruption & confusion. It would be unprecedented in the history of human warfare if that was not the case.
YY_Sima Qian
@Martin: Thanks for the response! As a father to a new born (my 2nd), I understand!
I think my different perspective on EV is very much shaped by experience living in China, where > 50% of EVs in the world are made & nearly 50% are sold. The fact most people’s commutes are short intracity ones, rather than long distance commutes from the exurbs, means NEVs (BEVs & PHEVs) have decisive operating cost advantage over ICEs, hence the “hockey stick” shape of NEV adoption rate for new passenger vehicles sold since 2020. Both the production cost & prices are now so low that the government is withdrawing production & purchase subsidies (would have been eliminated this year if the overall economy has been on a firmer footing). Consumers have a bewildering range of options for NEVs at every price point, from the US$ 5 – 10K subcompacts to the US$ 200K+ ultra premium SUVs, almost all from domestic brands (Tesla being the sole exception).
The foreign legacy makers (& their Chinese state owned JV partners) that have ruled the Chinese auto market for decades are in rapid decline. As late as 2018 GM made more profit from China (even after having to share 50% w/ SAIC) than the U.S., as late as 2020 China accounted for nearly 50% of VW’s revenues & even more of its profit. Koreans marques had 12% market share in 2016. Now, Korean brands are irrelevant, Japanese brands following quickly, American legacies not far behind, & the German marques in very precarious position (their reputations for premium affording them a bit more breathing space).
It is not just that the EV transition has rendered the century long supremacy in mechanical engineering enjoyed by the legacy automakers & their supply chain ecosystems (specifically engines & transmissions) irrelevant, the legacies are weak in many of the new areas important to EVs: batteries, electric motors, semiconductors, sensors, ADAS, & software/OS. Consumers in China, E. Asia ex-Japan, & the rest of the emerging markets have less developed car cultures & thus more open to the prospect of the the personal vehicle being an extension of one’s multifaceted interfaces w/ the digital world. The SW/HW integration required to create a seamless user experience is 2nd nature to the start ups that have consumer electronics or internet platform backgrounds, but largely foreign to the legacies. All of this has happened largely w/in the past 3 years. Tesla disrupted the EV industry in China, EVs have disrupted ICEs, & Chinese EVs are now disrupting Tesla in China. That is why VW bought 5% of XPeng to gain access to the latter’s dedicated EV platform & ADAS system, Stellanis bought 20% of Leapmotor to gain access to the latter’s vertically integrated technology stack, Toyota has an agreement w/ BYD to leverage’s the latter’s EV platform, & BMW’s new electric Smart is made on Great Wall Motor’s EV architecture.
EVs alone cannot solve climate change, but it is part of any suit of solutions. The rapid EV transition in China is but a part of the larger electrification of transportation in the country. E-Bikes have completely replaced motor bikes & even bicycles, w/ shared bike services filling in the rest of the demand. Passenger & freight rails are almost completely electrified, HSRs having driven long distance bus services out of business (short haul passenger flights, too). All of the metros are electrified, & the municipal bus fleets, taxi fleets, ride hailing fleets, car rental fleets, government fleets, are getting there. In fact, any motor vehicles w/ high utilization (delivery, repair services, moving services, short distance freight, etc.) are electrifying faster than passenger vehicles despite starting later. NEVs are now cheaper than comparable ICEs in China, w/ much better tech & much better user experience, & cheaper operating cost to boot. It helps that residential/industrial electricity is heavily subsidized in China, but gas much less so.
You are not seeing this paradigm shift yet in the U.S. because the U.S. market is shielded from disruption by Chinese made EVs behind a tariff wall & natsec considerations, so coverage in U.S. MSM has just started. Europe is beginning to feel the impact, starting from Chinese made Teslas, followed by European marques owned by Chinese companies, followed by Chinese marques. This is reflected in the increasingly panicked tones found in European press, as well as calls for protectionist trade policies. Ironically, Stellanis had been the most vocal in driving, through the French government, the EU Commission to start anti-dumping investigation into Chinese made EVs, because Stellanis is far less exposed to the Chinese market than German marques. After purchasing 20% of Leapmotor, Carlos Tavares just did a 180 in rhetoric. Chinese EVs are quickly taking market share from Japanese & Korean ICEs in Oceana & SE Asia.
I believe what you describe of Norway is due to lack of affordable EVs, a problem common in developed economies. Even Chinese made EVs are priced in the EU at 2 or 3X their prices in China, due to shipping cost, import tariffs, dealer margins, plus the Chinese makers want to obtain better margins there, as their margins in China are razor thin (or negative) due to the brutal price war.
As for charging infrastructure, that is something that governments at all levels should subsidize (which is what China did). After all, the U.S. government made enormous investment to create the interstate system that made car travel affordable & convenient, governments at all levels continue to spend substantial sums every year in maintenance & upkeep. Why not charging infrastructure?
My apologies for OT, & to anyone annoyed by another wall of text.
Annamal
@Martin: One other use interesting use case for ebikes, my relative is far enough along in their slow moving dementia that they shouldn’t be driving for the safety of others but an ebike has really expanded their world and helped them stay engaged.
I think loss of license is often the point where things really take a turn for the worse so I’m super grateful.
Martin
@Annamal: Yeah, I’d say half of the over-30 people I encounter with e-bikes have some manner of disability – seizure, limited sight, etc.
My son is getting his downpayment for a house by eliminating the $10K+/yr cost of being a car owner.
Ruckus
I would argue that it is far healthier for these discussions to happen in the open than to either get buried or not happen at all. There are always going to be disgruntled Soldiers, but it doesn’t mean that some of them are not right in their assessments of their leaders and those leaders’ performances.
This.
Because of command structure, many of these discussions never happen. I found, when I was in the military that most people did their best and that included the leaders. But some people’s best is crap at best. Not many in my sphere thankfully, but the number was greater than zero for sure. I had a number of superiors over my time in and most were decent, some were very good and some were pure crap in shoes. Those that rated pure crap in shoes (that means pure crap from the very tippy top of their rather deluded, tiny, rather useless brains to the very soles of their shoes) were very bad at their jobs but often did not get told that by anyone – because of rank and military protocol. And that is a problem because everything is top down and when the top, or even close to it is pure, unadulterated crap, it all rolls downhill and hits everyone. I saw zero cure for that other than just hoping that pile of crap or one’s self got transferred to some place better.
Ruckus
Ok, my comment got thrown overboard, never to be found again.
For those who may think it is terrible for this to come out or be amplified, I would argue that it is far healthier for these discussions to happen in the open than to either get buried or not happen at all. There are always going to be disgruntled Soldiers, but it doesn’t mean that some of them are not right in their assessments of their leaders and those leaders’ performances.
When I was in the Navy there were really decent leaders, adequate leaders and pure crap in shoe leaders. And usually the pure crap leaders had heads the size basket balls and brains the size of an ant’s asshole and they were pure crap from the top of those shitty ant’s asshole sized brains to the soles of their shoes. Sort of like life in general, except in the military all one can do is hopefully live with it.
Martin
@YY_Sima Qian: Ah, yes, the EV market in China is quite different than the US and elsewhere.
For one, almost everyone but the US has a segment of the EV market which is small EVs. The Wuling Mini EV, for instance. $5K, 100 mile range, etc. If these existed in the US, they might be disruptive, because they undercut the existing car market, offer most of the benefits of an e-bike along with more of the benefits of a car.
That they don’t take off here and in many parts of Europe speaks a lot to what we actually hire cars here to do.
And China has some benefit of having a better ability to secure limited battery capacity, so BYDs growth of traditional sized cars is easier to come by, where in the US, those kinds of volumes would trigger rising prices due to supply limitations.
But even Chinas benefits don’t address the larger problems, those being the majority of pollutants being from tires, not tailpipes, the significant cost of road infrastructure, particularly maintenance due the mass of the vehicles, the cost of land allocation for parking, and the loss of tax revenue due to conversion of revenue generating economic activity to non-revenue generating roads/parking. Each mile of suburban road has only 1/10 the tax base supporting it as urban road, and the urban->suburban tax transfers are getting weaker in all economies. This is leading to the failure of retail in most of the US – their overhead simply to get customers to their store is proving too much. Amazon has a lot of faults but doesn’t need to spend $20K paving a parking space for you. What we learned from Covid was that converting street parking into dining had a significant boost to tax revenues. The longstanding costs of automobiles (regardless of their drive train) are finally surfacing. Cities spend more money on road maintenance than K-12, and that’s hit a pretty serious wall, not just in the US but across the world.
The problem is that cars became an aspirational marker of the middle class, pretty much everywhere, more than it was a pragmatic tool for transportation. Not having a car signifies poverty, or lack of success, and this is really just a product of a lot of marketing. And I think that, to some degree, is starting to break down a bit.
Yes, governments have been spending substantially on road infrastructure, but it’s becoming unaffordable. In the US, increased vehicle size is bankrupting cities because road wear is a 4th power rule – the amount of wear from a vehicle is proportional to the 4th power of mass per axle. So if you increase the mass of a vehicle by 25%, you increase your maintenance costs by 240%. Consumers don’t see those costs, but cities do in their budgets. Aggravating this is that the US historically used gas taxes to pay for that infrastructure, which haven’t increased in decades, and are further undermined because EVs don’t pay them. Shifting that lost revenue, invisible to consumers because its embedded in some other cost that they incur fractionally and frequently to an overt tax like vehicle registration that comes once a year and is not invisible, even if the amount is the same, the response to that is very different. So US governments have not found a publicly approved method of recovering those costs.
Charging infrastructure is tricky because consumers have a baseline to compare that cost to – they generally know their residential electricity rates. So uncharging feels unfair. But the US cannot convert existing fueling infrastructure to EV charging because EV charging requires substantially more land area to do. A car gas station visit averages about 3 minutes, but a charging visit is closer to 20. So you need a 7x increase in land area to accommodate the same volume of vehicles. For commuters with garages who can charge at home, no big deal, but for distance driving – say I-5 from LA to SF, you need a LOT of infrastructure, and charging people $.50/kWh or more feels real bad when they know their garage costs are ⅓ that or less. Consumers have no such way to contextualize gasoline prices, so whatever upcharge occurs is fair, I guess.
Aggravating this yet further is that large parts of the US cannot accommodate residential EV charging, so the denser parts of the US really have trouble adopting EVs because they are dependent on the aforementioned charging infrastructure which largely doesn’t exist, which the government really has no way to implement because all of the land where it would make sense to offer this is privately owned, and where there is no particularly good business model for private land owners to offer the service. Smaller cars might help address this where charging off a standard 110V outlet would be viable, but the US is insistent on no EVs smaller than 2 tons, 60kWh, where such a charger is almost useless. It’s all of these competing market forces making a usable ecosystem almost impossible to form.
And yes, cities could do more to encourage it, but most cities have figured out that encouraging it just makes their road costs, which are already unaffordable, even moreso. What needs to happen is a reduction in driving, and that’s a whole different set of incentives and cultural forces.
I think the accepted view is that California’s 2035 prohibition on the sale of ICE vehicles will sort of deus ex machina solve the problem and make EVs work, but I think the result of that prohibition is going to be a substantial reduction in car ownership. Even reducing to one car per household is a 50% cut in car ownership in the US, which is a substantial blow to the auto industry.
China has quite a way to go to get UP to 1 car per household.
But the models suggest that despite the many efforts to boost EV adoption to address climate change, even the rosiest estimates show 300 million more gasoline cars being driven globally in 2030 than there are now. It’s simply not possible to scale EV adoption up fast enough to reduce transportation emissions. You can only do it by cutting car usage entirely.
And I’ll note here that I feel very torn by the travelogue posts here at BJ, because as much as we need to cut car usage, we need to cut air travel as well – something else we feel very entitled to.
ColoradoGuy
I want to thank YY_Sima Qian for the incisive report on the Chinese car market, the largest in the world.
I frankly find hopes of transitioning the general population to E-bikes to be Utopian at best. I very much doubt people are going to use E-bikes in snowy weather, something Norway is pretty famous for, and something we get in Colorado, too. In California, sure.
But most of the world does not have California weather … it’s either a lot hotter, wetter, or colder much of the time. Which is where electric cars and SUVs come in. They don’t need to be behemoths, or have 0-60 in 4 seconds acceleration: instead, just big enough for four people and equipped with a modern heat pump. It sounds like the Chinese are aiming right for this market … a 21st Century People’s Car, with modern user interfaces.
Yes, it would be desirable to get more North Americans out of the suburbs. That’s going to take many decades … in the meantime, how do you shop, and get to work? Not everyone gets to work from home. And moving back into the cities, which are already having severe housing shortages, isn’t going to happen in a few years. And building urban transportation infrastructure in the USA is a glacially slow process. Do we really expect the majority of workers to ride 20 miles to work in blazing hot weather, rain, and snow, on a bicycle? Seriously?
sab
@Annamal: We can take cars away (for safety of others) but we cannot take guns away because second amendment.
My parents both lost their licenses. Mom at 80. She was mentally as sharp as ever but physically a mess. She rolled her car into a train! because she didn’t notice her foot had slipped off the brake. Guys in the car behind her noticed and saved her.
Dad got lost coming home from the country club two blocks from his house where he had lived for 40 years. Oops. I think he was going back where he had lived in kindergarten. Dementia. 15 years later he is in a nursing home, wondering what we did with his wife.
YY_Sima Qian
@Martin: Thanks for the elaboration!
I think we have been focusing at different levels. I was focusing on how EVs will disrupt the auto industry, however that industry evolves going forward. So perhaps it is more precise to say EVs are disrupting the ICE auto industry. You are focusing the limitation of passenger vehicle industry given the dire challenge of AGW, which I agree w/. It is an enormous waste of resources & carbon emissions to build even a BEV to be purchased by a consumer, only to be sitting idle 95% of the time. The passenger car is indeed something of a status symbol everywhere. The Wuling Mini Bingo is too no-frills even for the Chinese market, but the BYD Sea Gull (at US$ 10K a proper A size car) & the BYD Dolphin (at US$ 15K) are selling quite well.
Given the density of urban areas in China, the extensive build out of metros, the dense bus routes, the readily available & easily affordable ride hailing services, as well as the E-Bikes & shared bikes filling in the last mile needs, not to mentioned the convenience & low cost of delivery services, there is actually no need for an urban Chinese household to own a passenger vehicle. One could always rent an NEV for the odd weekend or holiday trip. HSR have most of the long distance travel needs (w/in ~ 600 km radius) covered.
So, the conditions are set in China to significantly reduce the reliance upon passenger vehicles for transportation, but as you sa there are both cultural & industrial policy impediments.
Martin
@ColoradoGuy: So, winter cycling is totally a thing but it relies on city services.
A more technical breakdown of how the contract in Oulu works, and the standards there.
So, a few things to observe. For one, it’s dedicated bike infrastructure. This could be the result of road diets, but it means that heavy/fast cars throwing off a bunch of heat aren’t creating slushy conditions. The other is that bike infrastructure gets priority for plowing, as frequently as once an hour. But again, this is cheaper than the car infrastructure.
YY_Sima Qian
@ColoradoGuy: As I said, Chinese consumers are spoiled for choices at every price segment. After being in an unassailable position at the premium segment for 2+ decades, Audi is in trouble due to competition from over a dozen Chinese brands (NIO, Li Auto, AITO, AVATR, Polestar, Zeekr, HiPhi, Denza, etc.), all looking to get a piece of the segment that actually has some margins. Mercedes & BMW are under threat, which is why Mercedes is looking at an alliance w/ NIO, & it would not be surprising if BMW does something similar. Even Porsche (which is critical to VW’s profitability) is not secure. It’s EV offering has great design & build, but the SW (& thus user experience) is atrocious.
As for a “People’s EV”, I do think it will come from BYD. It has the most vertically integrated tech stack & supply chain, largest scale, & thus the lowest & most stable cost structure.
Martin
@YY_Sima Qian: I am covering the limitation of passenger vehicles due to AGW, but even without that I think the same dynamic happens because the value benefits of things like ebikes – and I don’t mean just ebikes, but other transit, changes to urban planning which also includes addressing housing affordability by de-emphasizing single family homes for multifamily, eliminating the costs of parking/car infrastructure (the US builds more 3 car garages than 1 bedroom apartments), etc.
My city has been transitioning from single family to multifamily housing over the last decade and one result is that cars become detrimental with the higher density, and if you try and keep that same car accommodation, you lose all of your affordability gains. So it’s not that ebikes are necessarily driving that change, rather they are a solution to how housing affordability is driving that change and how people will move about if they remove a car from the equation but in a higher density environment. They help enable the reduction in car ownership – and it’s a low-end disruption, it’s a relatively easy sell because it’s WAY cheaper. Again, e-bikes are outselling EVs in the US by about 50% and that gap is expanding fast. Now, most of those people aren’t yet eliminating their car (I did) but they are eliminating a lot of use of that car. And if you have 2 cars, going down to one becomes pretty straightforward.
So yes, EV is substituting for ICE, but ‘disruption’ is a term of art that doesn’t really describe that. A disruption needs to be a change by a new entrant or competitor that an incumbent can’t follow because the new business model is incompatible with the current one. Every ICE automaker can follow – they’re all introducing EVs.
My bigger point here would be that if you are looking at technological solutions to climate change, you’ve missed both the problem and the solution. All solutions to climate change involve changing how we consume the resources around us. A simple shift of fuel sources helps, but is insufficient. The larger change is harder to pull off, doubly so if you sell the technology as the solution and allow people to continue forward with their previous attitude. A different way to think of a car is that its fundamental job of taking a person from point A to point B involves a say, 100kg payload in a 2000kg platform. In other contexts we’d say that cars have a payload efficiency of 5% – because the job of being in the other place doesn’t require the 2000kg of car. In fact, the 2000kg of car becomes a liability once you get there – you need to find or rent a place to put it, there’s a risk of damage or theft while it’s there. For comparison, a Falcon 9 has a payload efficiency of about 5%, and nobody would consider that an efficient way to get about.
It doesn’t much matter what energy source you use, if you are wasting 95% of it, it will continue to be a climate problem – even if it’s a fully renewable supply chain.
Martin
@YY_Sima Qian: Yeah, BYD looks like the winner to me too. Their shift to exclusive EVs was a bold move. I still think they will succumb to the larger dynamics in the auto market though. My employer bought BYD electric buses a decade ago, the first one made at a factory here in California. They’ve been solid, much cheaper to operate than the diesel buses they replaced, and much easier for people to ride on.
For folks that don’t like buses but have never been on an electric bus – if you get a chance to try one, do it. In our customer surveys people liked the electric buses considerably more. We figure out it was partially due the lack of fumes from the diesel engine, but mostly it was due to the lack of transmission – the ride was less motion sickness inducing because it didn’t have the constant up and downshifts. It was a lot more like being on a tram than a bus.
Give one a shot if your city gets one.
YY_Sima Qian
@Martin: You have a much higher threshold for “disruption” than I, but I agree w/ your larger point. Ultimately, the most straightforward solution to AGW is for everyone to consume less, & the high consumption societies to consume much less. Unfortunately, that is not a politically palatable proposition anywhere any time soon. One example being most people will not give up their passenger vehicles any time soon, whether they need it or not.
YY_Sima Qian
@Martin: Rereading your comments a couple times, I really do appreciate the detailed explanation of the different constraints in the U.S., many of which I had not known or thought about. I think it’s slightly ironic that on a lee capita basis, land is much scarcer in China (especially in the eastern half of the country where 85% of the population reside) than the US, & yet land is much less a constraint for infrastructure in China, due to all of the land being state owned, & only usage rights are sold & traded.
Most of the Chinese residential & commercial developments in the past decade have parking lots underground, below the structures (& built to serve as bomb shelters during war time), & now all have dedicated spaces for [relatively] rapid charging.
ColoradoGuy
Martin, thanks for your comments on electric buses. Yes, I’ve ridden on them. They are a million times better than stinky and jerky diesel buses, and are indeed a lot like a tram, minus the hassle of building tracks. And very very quiet, even compared to a tram.
Surely it should be possible to have electric buses with moderate-sized battery packs and auto-seeking electric pickups on the top, so they automatically disengage and re-engage when overhead wires appear and disappear in different parts of town and suburb.
This would not be rocket science to engineer, with no effort on the part of the driver. That way, the wire system simply recharges the batteries on the move, and don’t need to be built out all over the city. Leafy suburbs and artsy districts can be wire-free, while key routes that are heavily traveled, with many stops, get the usual array of wires.
YY_Sima Qian
@ColoradoGuy: Battery packs now have enough energy density to allow a bus to run its routes for 12 hrs w/o recharging. Buses in China do not need any wire based infrastructure, I don’t think any of the electric buses offered by Chinese vendors do, either.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: What do you think of the propects for hydrogen power in China’s future transportation mix?
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: China is investing heavily into hydrogen, like every other potential new energy source, to make sure it is in a position to lead globally irrespective of which form of energy for transportation wins out.
However, battery chemistries are advancing so quickly, improving in energy density, low temp performance, charging cycle lifetime & safety, that hydrogen may not be necessary except for long distance heavy duty freight transport. Setting up the fueling infrastructure along will always be a high barrier.
Japanese auto industry bet the farm on hydrogen & missed the boat on EVs. They may (or may not) have a slim lead in hydrogen, but what we have seen repeatedly is that China is at the worst a fast follower (if not leading), & can vault ahead during application/implementation at scale due to huge internal market, consistent & sustained government industrial policy, & massive economies of scale. They create a virtuous cycle (for China) whereby Chinese firms stay ahead on the tech & cost curve because they have the demand, the manufacturing & the supply chain ecosystem, which drives continuous incremental innovation. These factors then lead to precipitous drops in cost that can promote widespread adoption world wide, but also create heavy dependence on Chinese industry/technology, which certain an outcome the Chinese government is not opposed to.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Have there been any discoveries of geologic, or “white” hydrogen in China? People have started looking for it. Most discoveries to date have been incidental to other drilling projects. The now-famous deposit in Mali was found 200 meters deep while drilling for water. The recent discovery of a large deposit in the Lorraine region of France wss incidental to research on underground methane presence.
Now companies are raising money to actively search for naturally generated hydrogen. As yet it’s hard to tell if this will mean a clean energy breakthough or just a few good years for suppliers of extra-deep drilling equipment.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Not that I am aware of. I have only read about hydrogen from water using green energy as the only viable source of “green” hydrogen. The Gulf States have huge ambitions of supplying the EU w/ green hydrogen in the 2030s by getting China to help build out massive solar infrastructure. That is partly why their foreign policy going forward will remain “multi-alignment”.
I don’t think drilled hydrogen will be a sustainable or “green” energy source, depending what else is released into the atmosphere during the drilling.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: The hydrogen deposit in Lorraine, France may be the “test bed” for geologic hygrogen. The EU has bet on hydrogen to be a component of their future energy economy, so I think there will be attempts to exploit the Lorraine deposit.
YY_Sima Qian
Not a geologist, but it is hard for me to believe there is more geological hydrogen than natural gas.
Another Scott
@Martin: Dayton, OH has had electric city buses for something like 90 years. They run with overhead wires. The transit agency wanted to get rid of them at one point, but (IIRC) the EPA made them keep them (Dayton is in a valley that traps air pollution).
They’re good, but limited by the wires, of course.
I’ve been noticing more ebikes around NoVA and they are a good thing. I keep hoping that we’ll have the infrastructure (lanes, parking) for 500 pound “pods” that have 3-4 wheels and a seat and a roof/cover to keep off the rain and snow and the heat/cold. Maybe a 35-40 mph top speed – high enough for reasonable commute times, but low enough to be mostly safe. Just big enough for one person and a couple of standard grocery bags.
Transit is great, but people need a way to get there to use it, and until we all live in skyscrapers there will never be enough transit density in the US. Personal/family transportation is going to be needed for a long time, but it doesn’t have to be 3500-7000 pound steel boxes!
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Scientists have a lot of research to do on geologic hydrogen. One important question: is the hydrogen being produced through an ongoing process? Is it being renewed, or are these static, limited pockets?
Another Scott
@Geminid:
Given the age of the Earth, the way the rocks and continents have been jumbled around over the eons, and the small size of hydrogen atoms (meaning it is very easily lost to the atmosphere), that question is almost certainly answered: the hydrogen is being continuously generated via natural chemical processes.
The real question, to my mind, is: is the generation rate high enough for practical exploitation at large scale? And if so, can it be commercialized via optimized human chemistry, or do we have to depend on natural deposits?
A recent review is here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825219304787
Cheers,
Scott.
Geminid
@Another Scott: I think people will find out a lot tapping the deposit in Lorraine. An energy company already has gas wells there, and they have applied for licenses to produce hydrogen. The next 5 years should prove whether or not geologic hydrogen becomes a significant part of the EU’s energy mix, I think.
Carlo Graziani
@Geminid: Sorry that I missed most of this very interesting discussion!
I believe that the principal problem with building out hydrogen-powered vehicle fleets is not so much the supply of hydrogen—there are many clever ideas out there, such as Siemens’ neat hack of using “wasted” KWHr generated by wind farms when the power is not needed to run electrolysis rigs. Rather the problem is distribution engineering. Hydrogen must be stored and transported under high-pressure (700 Atm, as I recall) cryogenic conditions, and pumped into vehicles under lower, but still quite high pressure. This creates technical safety specs for fueling infrastructure (and for vehicles!) that are far more challenging to meet and maintain than is the case for gasoline (which is itself quite a technical safety challenge, given how flammable and toxic the stuff is).
In the end, it is likely that the low cost of electrical energy distribution will be the determining factor, once we finally arrive at battery and charging tech that can put (say) a 300 mile range in a car in 15 minutes or less. We may be there by 2026 or soon thereafter, especially for smaller EVs. At that point, Hydrogen will be a clear losing proposition, no matter how cleanly or cheaply it is extracted.
Another Scott
@Carlo Graziani:
Someone had fun with the acronym/initialism here:
Hehe. [/13-year-old-humor]
Cheers,
Scott.
Ruckus
@ColoradoGuy:
Local EV buses in SoCal where I live have an overhead inductive charge station. They stop and sit there for a period of time and the bus charges. They seem to do this because the stop I see regular is the turn around stop for several bus lines and the charging area has at least 2, possibly a 3rd charging stations. So the buses are going to be there for a period of time to start on the return route and they can charge more often at a shorter time per stop. Also the stop is at the electric train station so there is a more than adequate power source available. The bus simply stops under the overhead charging unit, no plugging in.
Now the critical thing is – how is that electricity generated? If it is using petroleum/natural gas powered charging, what is the savings, other than fewer vehicles on the road. The same of course goes for EV autos. Please do not get me wrong, I see a lot of EVs here in SoCal and it seems like a much better idea, but if all it does is change who is the user of the resources how much have we gained? OTOH an EV sitting at a light or in traffic is not burning petroleum and that is a good thing. In the long run I’d bet it is a better use of resources. And do not forget oil changes and the waste use of that petroleum product.
Geminid
@Carlo Graziani: The EU plans to invest heavily in hydrogen as a component of their future energy mix. The International Energy Agency projects hydrogen to have an 18% share of the world’s enetgy production on 2050. It would be used prmary in heavy industry and heavy transport.
The problem of transmission does not arise if hydrogen is produced on site. That is why a German steel producer, and two Scandinavian companies producing glass and recycling aluminum have purchased electrolyser units from Plug Power.
The Biden administration just announced funding for 7 “hydrogen hubs” intended to spur the production and use of hydrogen. One centered in Washington will have 8 “nodes in Washington, Oregon and Idaho. These hubs are funded by the Infrastructure bill, and are intended to create fueling sources for Class 8 trucks as well as industrial uses. Rightly or wrongly, hydrogen power infrsstructure is being developed on a large scale worldwide.