(Crest of the Security Service of Ukraine)
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has moved against the Russian funded Ukrainian network that was attempting to sell dirt to Rudy Giuliani. The SBU has begun charging members of this network with treason!
The Security Service and the DBR gathered evidence of a state betrayal by the People’s Deputy of Ukraine, who carried out information and subversive activities in favor of the rf.
According to the investigation, he had a call sign «Pinocchio» and was part of a criminal organization that formed the main department of the GRU of the Russian armed forces ( known as the GRU).
The main task of this organization – to shake the socio-political situation in Ukraine and discredit our state in the international arena. For this, the members of the group received money from military intelligence rf.
According to available data, network funding reached more than $ 10 million.
Within the pre-trial investigation, it is documented that the figure skater spread fakes about the supreme military-political leadership of our state. One example of misinformation work – the spread of fakes about the alleged interference of Ukrainian high-ranking officials in the 2019 US presidential election.
For « dispersal» pro-Russian narratives, he participated in the relevant press conferences.
It is established that the criminal organization was created by the Deputy Chief of the Russian GRU Vladimir Aleksiev as an agent network operating in the capital of Ukraine.
The operational leadership of the enemy group from the territory of the rf was carried out by his deputy – Alexei Savin.
According to the investigation, in addition to the People’s Deputy, the enemy group included exnardep Andriy Derkach, who fled abroad on the eve of a full-scale invasion.
This agency network also included former prosecutor Konstantin Kulik. He had a call sign «Bird » and is currently hiding from justice abroad. During the information sabotage against our state, Kulyk publicly engaged in pseudo-legal « justification of » fakes in favor of the Kremlin.
The subversive activities of the criminal organization in Kyiv were coordinated by the exponent of Derkach, a former employee of the game of the time of Srsr Igor Kolesnikov, who on the materials of the SBU has already been convicted and is serving a sentence for treason.
Currently, on the basis of the evidence gathered, the Prosecutor General of Ukraine informed a member of the criminal organization – MP – about the suspicion under two articles of the Criminal Code of Ukraine:
- part 1 article 111 (state betrayal);
- part 1 article 255 ( creation, leadership of a criminal community or criminal organization, as well as participation in it).
Here’s analysis from Pwnallthethings from the Skyview app as BlueSky posts don’t embed here:
Oh, this is a big deal:
Statement today from Ukraine’s SBU. It’s charging former Ukrainian lawmaker Derkach and former Ukrainian prosecutor Kulyk with treason against Ukraine ssu.gov.ua/novyny/za-ma…
The allegation here is that they were part of a network ultimately working for Russia’s GRU intelligence agency, and funded by them to the tune of about $10m or so.
Now why would you care? Bear with me on this
One of the allegations is what that group was tasked with. Specifically: “disinformation [namely] spreading fakes about the alleged interference of Ukrainian high-ranking officials in 2019 to influence the [2020] US presidential elections”
They’re talking about Guiliani’s 2019 meeting with Derkach abcnews.go.com/Politics/rud…
Giuliani in Ukraine with conservative news outlet in effort to discredit impeachment probeRudy Giuliani traveled to Ukraine this week as part of his ongoing effort to promote theories of Ukrainian election meddling as part of a conservative documentary series.abcnews.go.com
Giuliani is not named, and he is not accused of crimes by UA. But it is, in effect, Ukraine saying that it not only believes–but can and intends to prove–that Giuliani’s 2019 allegations about corrupt payments to Hunter Biden in 2019 were forgeries made by, and laundered to him, by Russia’s GRU.
It seems like the Ukrainians are closing in on the Black PSYOP we began discussing her back in October 2019. Now we wait to see if Ukraine indicts anyone on the US end of this op: Giuliani, Mac Isaac, Bannon, Guo, etc.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
It is a matter of principle for Ukraine to implement all seven recommendations of the European Commission and fulfill everything that is required at this point of our path to the EU – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
13 November 2023 – 20:34
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
The key takeaways from this day.
I met with the leader of the Crimean Tatar people Mustafa Dzhemilev – today is his birthday, he turned 80.
A decent man, a brave man. A defender of his people and the whole of Ukraine.
I awarded Mustafa Dzhemilev the title of Hero of Ukraine. I believe that it is absolutely well deserved. I also thanked him for what he has done for our people, for our freedom. He is truly a moral authority. I also thanked him for the fact that Mr. Mustafa-aga is now with us in the fight against Russian aggression.
Of course, we talked about Crimea and the protection of our people on the peninsula. We are mindful of all parts of our country and must restore freedom for the entire Ukraine without exception.
I thank everyone in the world who remembers that Russia’s attack on the rules-based international order began with Crimea. It was with the seizure of Crimea that Russia began this aggression and destabilization. And it is difficult to imagine a restored peace in the world unless we return to Ukraine what Russia has stolen. Restoring our territorial integrity is a global need.
Today, I held a long meeting with diplomats, government officials, and representatives of the Verkhovna Rada to discuss our country’s preparations for the European Council’s political decision to start negotiations on Ukraine’s membership in the European Union. Our steps and our decisions. We are working to get an unconditioned decision to open negotiations. For Ukraine, it is a matter of principle to implement all the recommendations of the European Commission, all seven recommendations, and fulfill everything that is required at this point of our path to the European Union. The success of our country and people – economic, social, and success in building Ukraine’s relations with the world – can only be achieved as a common success of the whole of Europe. To this end, we are gradually strengthening our institutions and legislation, even during a full-scale war. And I am grateful to everyone who contributes to this, who endorses the relevant decisions, who puts them into action.
Today, I also held several meetings on our next international steps planned for the coming weeks. Negotiations with the leaders of partner countries, new support packages for our warriors, and international communication of Ukraine.
We can and must ensure an absolutely clear result: no matter what the information agenda of the world is, our partners must understand us and hear Ukrainians. And they will.
There is important news from Romania: an F-16 pilot training center has started operations, our guys will undergo training there. I thank President Iohannis of Romania and Prime Minister Rutte of the Netherlands for ensuring the implementation of all our agreements.
There were also intelligence reports today – by Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate Budanov and Chief of the Foreign Intelligence Service Lytvynenko. I am grateful to both of these agencies – to every single person serving there – above all, for the fact that Ukraine knows and will know the enemy’s plans and how to respond to them – properly and powerfully. Both on the ground and in the Black Sea.
And, of course, the frontline.
Avdiivka, Maryinka, Bakhmut direction, Lyman direction, Kupyansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson region…
It is challenging in each of these areas. But I thank everyone who is steadfast. I thank everyone who does not lose strength and positions. I thank all the commanders who care about the troops. I thank all the combat medics who save lives. I thank all our people who remember that Ukraine lives because there is someone to hold off the enemy.
Glory to our warriors! Glory to all our heroes!
Glory to Ukraine!
Mustafa Dzhemilev, the leader of the Crimean Tatar people, turned 80 today.
I congratulated him and thanked him for defending the freedom of Ukraine and the Crimean Tatar people. I also awarded him the Hero of Ukraine title.
Mustafa Dzhemilev is a strong, worthy, and brave… pic.twitter.com/cBCbyDeAdj— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 13, 2023
Mustafa Dzhemilev, the leader of the Crimean Tatar people, turned 80 today.
I congratulated him and thanked him for defending the freedom of Ukraine and the Crimean Tatar people. I also awarded him the Hero of Ukraine title.
Mustafa Dzhemilev is a strong, worthy, and brave man who has committed his life to defending national liberty.
I wished him what we all wish: victory for Ukraine and freedom for our entire country. We are making every effort to bring the liberation of Crimea closer.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Held a productive call with my 🇦🇺 colleague @RichardMarlesMP.
We discussed Ukraine’s critical needs for winter, mainly air defence systems, artillery and more ammo.
We paid attention to another crucial point – anti-UAV systems.
Grateful to Australia for the constant…
— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) November 13, 2023
Held a productive call with my 🇦🇺 colleague @RichardMarlesMP.
We discussed Ukraine’s critical needs for winter, mainly air defence systems, artillery and more ammo.
We paid attention to another crucial point – anti-UAV systems.
Grateful to Australia for the constant political support, military assistance, and training of our soldiers.
This statement from Lithuania’s Minister of Foreign Affairs:
However hard we try to spin it, a ceasefire would be a victory for Putin. Ukraine will never stop fighting unless we choose to abandon them. The shameful proposal I am hearing is to feed the bear and invite him to come back later. That was my warning today in Brussels.
— Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) November 13, 2023
Is most likely in response to this action by Hungary:
Hungary will keep blocking a tranche worth €500 million intended for military aid to Ukraine within the framework of the European Peace Fund. Hungary wants guarantees that the OTP bank or other Hungarian firms will not be blacklisted as international sponsors of war, Foreign… pic.twitter.com/uhCDTb6cST
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) November 13, 2023
Hungary will keep blocking a tranche worth €500 million intended for military aid to Ukraine within the framework of the European Peace Fund. Hungary wants guarantees that the OTP bank or other Hungarian firms will not be blacklisted as international sponsors of war, Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said.
The F16 Training Center at 86th Fetesti Air Base is officially open!
We are grateful to our Romanian, Dutch, and US partners. https://t.co/7O9H4XTgqp
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 13, 2023
"We are from Ukraine" is written on the pilot's helmet.
"We will win!" every Ukrainian knows.📹: 831st Tactical Aviation Brigade pic.twitter.com/e18p0gWy9n
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 13, 2023
Today the 100th ship departed the Black Sea humanitarian corridor – an export lifeline for Ukraine that has delivered 3.7 million tons of food & goods to the world. pic.twitter.com/rL0Xv1rxQY
— Ambassador Bridget A. Brink (@USAmbKyiv) November 13, 2023
The US bought 60 Cheetahs (Dutch Gepards) from Jordan to be transferred to Ukraine.
Source: https://t.co/elAb7AKvd3#Ukraine #Jordan #USA pic.twitter.com/OT3uVXuc0q
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 13, 2023
Avdiivka:
Battle for Avdiivka continues.
📹: 47th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/StmKSgRHpU
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 13, 2023
A group of Russian infantry decided to hide from FPV drone inside of a destroyed BTR. Avdiivka front, by the 47th Brigade. https://t.co/eMpPkPT8Ua pic.twitter.com/fuTYhfvVh7
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 13, 2023
The Dnipro River, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:
Russian state news agencies first wrote about the withdrawal of troops from the Dnipro River bank around Kherson. Then they "annulled" it, calling it a mistake.
It’s not a mistake, run pic.twitter.com/FRC682QYvG
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 13, 2023
Info floating on Russian channels this morning that the Russian MoD decided to "regroup forces from the Dnieper…", citing the TASS Telegram channel as the source. However, there's nothing on the TASS website at the moment, so stay vigilant about disinfo!…
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 13, 2023
Info floating on Russian channels this morning that the Russian MoD decided to “regroup forces from the Dnieper…”, citing the TASS Telegram channel as the source. However, there’s nothing on the TASS website at the moment, so stay vigilant about disinfo!
https://t.me/tass_agency/218478
Russian TASS now says the message about the withdrawal from the Dnieper was a mistake.
"The news “The command of the Dnepr group decided to regroup troops to more advantageous positions east of the Dnieper” is CANCELED as it was released erroneously.
We apologise to our… pic.twitter.com/t7gOxSIpzj
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 13, 2023
Russian TASS now says the message about the withdrawal from the Dnieper was a mistake.
“The news “The command of the Dnepr group decided to regroup troops to more advantageous positions east of the Dnieper” is CANCELED as it was released erroneously.
We apologise to our subscribers and readers.”
https://t.me/tass_agency/218478It is hard to say if it was a blunder, a sabotage, or news going out a bit too early than expected.
Also, close only counts in horse shoes, hand grenades, and nuclear warheads:
Russian drone unsuccessfully trying to drop munitions on a Ukrainian jet ski crossing the waters in the Kherson frontline. pic.twitter.com/Q4dUdYbBXU
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 13, 2023
Krynky, the left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:
Russian channel Two Majors about the situation near Krynky.
"The situation in the area near the settlement of Krynky remains tense, the enemy is concentrating heavy equipment on its bank. Electronic warfare continues to cover the positions, and also at night the SDF and GUR… pic.twitter.com/jDL54q1tPR
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) November 13, 2023
Russian channel Two Majors about the situation near Krynky.
“The situation in the area near the settlement of Krynky remains tense, the enemy is concentrating heavy equipment on its bank. Electronic warfare continues to cover the positions, and also at night the SDF and GUR groups are actively working with 120-mm mortars. Since the beginning of the month, we have been waiting for a meeting with the commander of the Dnipro group to discuss pressing problems, including communication and supply issues. So far, the meeting has been postponed.”
Kherson:
The Russian military attacked one of Kherson's hospitals. An ambulance and other cars were destroyed. Further information about possible victims is being clarified, governor of the region Oleksandr Prokudin reports… pic.twitter.com/fVZnE4Uvsg
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) November 13, 2023
WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC IMAGERY!! WARNING!! WARNING!!
Family with a two-month-old baby came under Russian shelling on their way back from a medical check-up in Kherson. Baby's grandfather, who was driving, killed. Mother is now in critical condition at the hospital. Heartbreaking pic.twitter.com/KtzwL4MBSM
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 13, 2023
ALL CLEAR!!!
Not exactly sure where in Ukraine this is:
14th Mechanised Brigade of Ukraine also reports that at night Russians attempted to attack. Julian’s k front. https://t.co/oVeRn6njNu https://t.co/JbUr6pfdxb pic.twitter.com/Rnnq0RYSpt
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 13, 2023
For Omnes:
A look from the inside of a British supplied AS-90 155-mm self-propelled howitzer. pic.twitter.com/5gDLkZ2U0x
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) November 13, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Here’s a new tweet from Patron with replies from some other very good doggos.
Hello Patron! pic.twitter.com/5ft7hZCyZQ
— Joe Weiss (@JoeWeis55325776) November 13, 2023
Hello from Germany ❤️ pic.twitter.com/845Hn0B09K
— Nicibe72 (@nicibe72) November 13, 2023
Cutie pie ❤️ greetings from Germany my friend pic.twitter.com/ABkmJYso6C
— Nicole 🤍💙💛 @nicole53.bsky.social (@PN46PN46) November 13, 2023
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Вибір очевидний… #песпатрон #песпатронремікс
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
The choice is obvious… #pespatron #pespatronremix
Open thread!
Fraud Guy
I know this is not the intent, but this sounds like a recipie for criminal behaviour.
New Deal democrat
What is your best guess as to the seriousness of Ukraine’s Dnipro crossing?
Are they finally going to try in force an end around the flanks of the Russians’ layered minefields?
Thanks in advance for your reply.
Adam L Silverman
@New Deal democrat: I honestly don’t know. They’re clearly making steady progress in a few places, but whether this is intended to set the conditions for a large breakthrough attempt I cannot say.
Adam L Silverman
@Fraud Guy: Machine translation artifacts.
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
No wonder my criminal conspiracy didn’t turn out and I wound up with muffins instead.
I won’t try that recipe again.
As always, thank you Adam.
Snarki, child of Loki
@Fraud Guy:
Bake for 3 years.
Serve cold.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: I’ll take a look in a little while.
Mike in DC
I would think Ukraine would need 2-3 brigades across the Dnipro if the aim was to drive towards the bridges and roads to Crimea.
Gin & Tonic
The amusing thing about the Giuliani-Derkach thing is that was blindingly obvious to anyone with half a brain that he’d get rolled in Kyiv. Might as well have been wearing a sign around his neck. Not much different from those red-faced overweight middle-aged guys from Nebraska or wherever, that you see in O’Brien’s every summer shopping for a wife.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: No worries. They hadn’t posted their own English translation yet, so I used the machine translation. My guess is its supposed to be an abbreviation for section or subsection.
AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue Team
Thank you as always Adam.
Alison Rose
Man. If Ukraine ends up indicting Rudy, that would just be so incredibly sweet. I would laugh. A lot.
Fuck Hungary. Apologies to my long-deceased Hungarian ancestors, although I’m sure they would agree with me were they around now.
Ukrainian grannies continue to be the most bad-ass grannies:
Thank you as always, Adam.
Martin
@Adam L Silverman: Seems like a really difficult place to launch such an effort.
Gin & Tonic
@Alison Rose: You mess with a Ukrainian grandma at your own (considerable) risk.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: I took a look at the original, and the intended word is “Article” – in the law sense. It’s odd, because both the word “article” and the word “table” in Ukrainian start with the same two letters; the former is abbreviated regularly, and the latter isn’t. And in Ukrainian, “tablespoon” is actually two words, “table” in the nominative case, and “spoon.” I’ve read a lot of Ukrainian recipes, and there really isn’t room for confusion between “table spoon” and “article.”
This is why human translators are still in business.
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: I believe it!
Jay
@Mike in DC:
@Martin:
It is still a developing battlespace.
In mid summer, UA raids on islands in the river eliminated Orc outposts. In late summer, UA raids eliminated Orc outposts on the banks of the river. In early September, the UA established and maintained a foot hold across the river. In October they expanded the foothold. Now in November, they are bringing armor and heavy vehicles across and continue to expand the foothold.
Adam L Silverman
@AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue Team: You’re most welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Thanks, I’ll adjust it.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: The bigger challenge will be keeping a few Ukrainian brigades supplied & sustained across the Dnipro, if they are to drive into the Russian rear.
Bill Arnold
That Giuliani – Derkach/Kulyk story is delicious.
Machine translations of that SBU page do not inspire trust. (e.g. google translate’s “2019 US presidential election” – is it saying the early (2019) parts of the US 2020 election cycle, or is it a mistake by the SBU?)
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Right now, the biggest challenge is the positional aspect of the war.
It is still treeline to treeline. village reduced to rubble to village reduced to rubble with few places to shelter from drones and fires.
Properly managed and supported, the UA should have never been able to wipe out the Orcs on the Islands. But the Orc’s just threw their Marines out there with no support. Times two for the riverbank Orc fortifications. The beachhead should have been driven into the sea, easily by any competent command, but it wasn’t and is expanding.
The Orc Marines lost to a bunch of guys with drones on jetski’s.
Several big NATO donations were made in August and September of bridging equipment.
Adam L Silverman
@Bill Arnold: 2019 was when Giuliani start going to Ukraine looking for dirt on the Bidens.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Yes. If the Ukrainians can suppress Russian artillery targeting the bridgehead & the pontoon bridges, they can definitely push some brigades across & circumvent the densest part of the Surovikhin Lines.
Gin & Tonic
@Bill Arnold: It’s a problem with the machine translation. It’s not saying “2019 presidential election” it’s saying that the efforts to influence the election process took place in 2019.
Also, Adam, I figured out why the machine translation said “Russian game.” The Ukrainian for GRU is HRU, but since they lower-case everything about russia, it looks like “hru” which is the word for game. So if you’re inclined, you can substitute GRU there.
Carlo Graziani
14th Mechanized Brigade is apparently currently deployed in the Kupyansk-Svatove area.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Fixed.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: The op seems most likely intended as a medium-low investment designed to disperse Russian forces away from Orkhiv-Tokmak. As you say, offensive sustainment seems like a non-starter. But defense against potential Russian counter-strokes seems eminently feasible, if they succeed in drawing Russian forces West to deal with the perceived threat.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
according to the translated bitch fests translated by Dimitri at War Translated, the Orc’s arn’t targeting the bridgehead with arty, never backed up the Orc Marines with arty, drones or airpower, etc, havn’t thrown armor against the bridge head and most of the marine support and the supplies for the Orc Marines was done with looted civilian runabouts.
The current Orc complaints on this front are, UA arty, UA helo’s pounding them constantly and accurately, constant drone attacks and that the “commander” of this front hasn’t been answering his urgent emails for two weeks.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Well, the Russian command appears to be asleep in this sector right now, but if the Ukrainian Army lays multiple pontoon bridges & pushes multiple brigades across, the Russian will wake up & try to interdict the supply line. That is when the Ukrainians will need to suppress Russian artillery.
Anoniminous
@YY_Sima Qian:
To make a sustained deep operation the Ukrainians need to either repair the Antonivka Road Bridge at Kherson, have several Mabey Logistic Support Bridges for each brigade, or both. Ever since that dickhead Montgomery’s Operation Market-Garden most people have realized the stupidity of relying on one road for maneuver support. The lesson was underlined by the French defeat at Dien Bien Phu.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: As Jay said, it shouldn’t have taken the Russians that much investment to prevent the Ukrainians from gaining a lodgment on the left bank of the Dnipro. But it was not done, so now the Ukrainians have a foothold from which to at least conduct raids & make a general nuisance of themselves.
wjca
I fear I must respectfully disagree on this. Russia’s attack started with its 2008 invasion of the Republic of Georgia. The invasion of Crimea was step 2, once Georgia revealed to the Russians that they could get away with it.
I really hope that, once Ukraine has ousted the Russians, the Georgians will get sufficient support to do the same.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Having utterly destroyed several attempted Orc river crossings and the BTG’s trying to make them, early in the war, I am going to guess that no bridging is done until Orc arty has been pushed back out of range.
Until then, resupply will be weather dependent and using small landing craft and drones.
Anoniminous
It’s really good news the Ukrainians are getting 60 Gephards. The weapon system has proven to be a wicked weapon for air defense. And just like the M16 Multiple Gun Motor Carriage it can be used with great effect against infantry and other LOS ground targets.
Odie Hugh Manatee
@Gin & Tonic:
I just wanted to say thank you for your translation and other work here with Adam. You are helping to make sense of all of this and it is appreciated.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: I was referring to the Ukrainian investment.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: I know, & it should not have taken the Russians much effort to blunt/negate the limited Ukrainian effort. Clearly they still have warm bodies to spare. Instead, the Russians are allowing the situations to fester, due to their utter incompetence.
Mass is basically the only thing the Russians have going for them at the operational & strategic levels, despite evidence of learning at the tactical level.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
It started off as a couple of jet skis, a couple of RIB’s, a total of 12 to 15 soldiers, with some drones, a mortar or two, a couple RPG’s and some SAW’s.
Now it’s one Marine Brigade
An example of Lenin’s “push with the bayonet”.
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: The issue is Intentions. Is this a new UA offensive thrust, or an opportunistic enterprise, to be expanded to the point that it gets Russian attention and diverts their assets.
For my money, it’s very obviously the latter.
wjca
I don’t think the Ukrainians picked either. I think they put this attack across, just to see if the Russians would shift resources from the other fronts (leaving a weakness to be exploited). Or if, as happened, the Russians would mostly ignore this attack, thus providing an opportunity to turn a flank.
Flexibility: it’s both the Ukrainians’ strength and the Russians’ biggest weakness.
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
Lyrebird
I’m probably the least knowledgeable observer on the thread, but fwiw I agree with you… It also seems to me that in this fight for their survival, Ukrainians don’t always have a huge list of options.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
Well, so far it’s not getting Orc’s attentions.
“You probe with bayonets: if you find mush, you push. If you find steel, you withdraw”
― Vladimir Ilich Lenin
When the UA raided the islands, they found mush, so they cleared the islands,
When UA raided the banks, again, mush, so they cleared out the banks.
When they raided into the larger fortifications, again, mush.
It’s not ideal terrain for a “Thunder Run”, but then, no place is anymore except for the Road to Moscow.
But it is ideal terrain for how the UA has been winning battles, tree line by tree line, village turned to rubble after village turned to rubble.
Quality has a quantity of it’s own.
Jay
Perun has a new video out,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaWVrphbHXI
“More “Game Changers” (and Failures) in Ukraine – From Starlink & Electronic warfare to Hypersonics”
way2blue
@Odie Hugh Manatee: +1
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: Yeah, but as YY_Sima Qian points out, there’s a pretty much insurmountable logistical bound–the Dnipro–preventing this thing from ever developing into the kind of offensive that really challenges Russian control. It would be delusional to believe otherwise, and however flexible the Ukrainians are, I’m pretty sure that they do not delude themselves.
wjca
Well, maybe. That view would certainly account for the Russians’ apparent indifference. On the other hand, I seem to recall, a few months back, it was held to be delusional to think that the Ukrainians could manage more than the occasional hit and run raid across the river.
And yet, there they are, well beyond the raid stage. Nothing may come of it, of course. But I certainly wouldn’t want to bet the ranch on that.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
if the UA can push back the Orc’s arty back 41 km, (30km from where the UA is now), then they can put several bridges in place.
4 months ago, nobody ever thought that the UA raids would result in UA armor crossing the river.
Only morons expect a “Thunder Run”*, it’s going to be a long slow slog.
*was it Pootie Poot who said 3 days to Kiev? Or was it Shoigu?
Prigozhin is the only one who pulled off a “Thunder Run”, but that was in the opposite direction.
Prescott Cactus
@Lyrebird:
It’s too late at night to argue. .
Adam, thanks for everything, especially the !! Warning Warning !!
Traveller
For people, apparently many, wanting information on the issue of crossing the Dnipro…Daily Kos has an excellent entry today, lots of satellite maps of the river and possible breaching points…apparently:
.…they might even choose to bridge the gap to the island village of Bilohrudove and drive forces to a position where the crossing to Hola Prystan is less than 200 meters…
200 Meters is not terrible wide….and the 60 Gepharts purchased from Jordan by the US, would use only a portion of these to defend any pontoon bridging. You have to take the enemy’s weak points as you find them, I suppose (and be happy they are there).
Here is the highly recommended read, and especially for the multitude of maps for a clearer understanding of the terrain.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/13/2205615/-Ukraine-update-The-Battle-of-the-Dnipro-expands?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_2&pm_medium=web
Best Wishes, Traveller
Gin & Tonic
@Odie Hugh Manatee: @way2blue:
You’re welcome, although my efforts here are but a drop in the ocean compared to Adam’s.
Bill Arnold
About the 2022/2023 winter attacks on the Ukraine electric grid, a combination of the kinetic (that horrific part we saw reported in the press) and cyber on SCADA systems. The author knows the subject. (Hate the term “cyber” but it is the term of art at the moment.)
Russia ushers in a new era of cyber-physical attack – Moscow used a new type of cyberattack to destabilise Ukraine’s electricity grid (Dan Black • 14 November 2023)
“Live off the land” is getting access to a system(controlled network) and using (mostly) the tooling and other resources already on/in that system.
Torrey
@Jay:
That was in another country, and besides, the wench is dead.