Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The Supreme Court cannot be allowed to become the ultimate, unaccountable arbiter of everything.

Come on, man.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

Let us savor the impending downfall of lawless scoundrels who richly deserve the trouble barreling their way.

Someone should tell Republicans that violence is the last refuge of the incompetent, or possibly the first.

Let’s finish the job.

Spilling the end game before they can coat it in frankl luntz-approved dogwhistles.

Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

Bad news for Ron DeSantis is great news for America.

Well, whatever it is, it’s better than being a Republican.

Israel is using food as a weapon of war. Unforgivable.

DeSantis transforming Florida into 1930s Germany with gators and theme parks.

Donald Trump, welcome to your everything, everywhere, all at once.

An unpunished coup is a training exercise.

“Loving your country does not mean lying about it’s history.”

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you don’t.

Donald Jessica Trump found guilty as fuck – May 30, 2024!

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 646: Russia Continues To Test Ukraine’s Air Defense

War for Ukraine Day 646: Russia Continues To Test Ukraine’s Air Defense

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Just a quick housekeeping note: The good folks at The Ark Valley Voice, who are good friends, asked if I’d do a piece for them on the Israel-Hamas War. They published it yesterday around 4 PM MST. If you’re interested, here’s the link.

Russia once again opened up on Ukraine overnight. From the Air Force of Ukraine’s Telegram channel:

Screen shot of Air Force of Ukraine's Telegram channel from 1 DEC 2023 showing that Ukraine stopped 18 Shahed drones and 1 missile.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Listened to reports on ammunition and weapons supply; preparing requests for talks with partners – address by the President of Ukraine

1 December 2023 – 19:28

Wishing you good health, dear Ukrainians!

Summary for today.

Just chaired a Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff meeting. Frontline commanders and the Commander-in-Chief reported on the situation at the front – all main directions. East – Kupyansk, Lyman, Maryinka, Avdiivka. Zaporizhzhia. South and, in particular, our actions in Kherson region. Grateful to all the soldiers on the front lines – in battles, at combat posts. Thanks to everyone helping defend our positions – building fortifications, mining the paths that occupiers try to use. Listened to reports on the supply of ammunition and weapons, we are preparing updated requests for communication with partners. A productive week of talks is ahead.

The head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine presented a report on possible Russian actions and the international situation for the next year at the Staff meeting. We are analyzing all possible scenarios, and there must be our Ukrainian scenario for 2024. Specific operations with entirely specific justifications that will give Ukraine entirely specific results. Everything necessary for our state, our brigades, these specific results must be calculated precisely. This includes issues of mobilization. Everyone in Ukraine understands that changes are needed in this area. It’s not just about the number of those who can be mobilized. It’s about terms – for everyone currently in the military – for demobilization – and for those who will join the military. And it’s about conditions. These are comprehensive things that military leadership and the Ministry of Defense have to work out and present to the Staff for approval. Today, there were some proposals. I am waiting for integrated solutions.

Held several important meetings. Minister of Defense and his first deputy. Special, sensitive, non-public issues regarding the provision of our forces. And, a preparatory meeting before the next week. Ukraine’s participation in meaningful events, including international ones, is planned.

Today, we achieved a significant diplomatic outcome – Russia will no longer be part of the leadership of the International Maritime Organization. This is one of the largest and highly influential global institutions responsible for maritime safety. Obviously, the state-terrorist that turned the Black Sea into a battlefield cannot be among those influencing the activities of the International Maritime Organization. The entire week, we worked towards this decision – and it is a success. I am grateful to everyone who contributed to this.

Another thing.

Greeted the employees of the Prosecutor’s Office of Ukraine on their professional day. It is crucial that Ukraine works with all partners in the most knowledgeable, careful, and professional manner to properly document and substantiate Russian crimes against our people, war crimes against our state, with evidence to restore justice. I am grateful to everyone performing this work: prosecutors, detectives, investigators, experts, and criminalists. Also, to everyone worldwide supporting the efforts of our state. The team of the International Criminal Court is busy working with Ukrainian specialists. The investigations into the abduction of children by Russians in the occupied territories of our state, deportations. When Russian officials and criminals receive lawful and just sentences, especially for deporting our children, this will be the defense of humanity on which normal life in the world depends. The Prosecutor General, the system of prosecutor’s offices in Ukraine, and law enforcement agencies are approaching the necessary just result. I thanked them for this today.

Glory to all who fight and work for the interests of Ukraine and Ukrainians! Glory to our strongest nation. A nation that is strongest when it believes in itself and knows its goals.

We will definitely achieve our goal.

Glory to Ukraine!

For those of you marking Advent this season:

Advent Calendar: Ukrainian Ministry of Defense edition. Today, we want to say thank you to our colleagues at @DeptOfDefensefor their unwavering support, especially for providing us with M142 HIMARS.

This weapon became a true legend on the battlefield. It sends flaming gifts to occupiers on a daily basis and destroys russian equipment worth millions of dollars.

Stay tuned for more Weapons of Victory in our Advent Calendar.

#StandWithUkraine #UAMoDAdvent

For those wondering, here are Russia’s most recent mobilization numbers:

❗️Putin increased army personnel by 170,000. Russian armed forces now stand at 2,209,130, including 1,320,000 military personnel.

That 170,000 figure mirrors Russia’s invasion count in February 2022.

Russian MoD links the armed forces surge to ‘growing threats from a special military operation and NATO’s ongoing expansion.’

There are a lot more Russians, including the ethnic minorities and convicts that Putin is preferring to use, than there are Ukrainians. And unlike President Zelenskyy and General Zaluzhnyi, Putin DOES NOT care how much blood and treasure he spends to achieve his genocidal objectives.

This is what Putin’s indifference has bought him:

And the effect on Ukraine:

Here’s more from the AP’s interview of President Zelenskyy:

KHARKIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the war with Russia is in a new stage, with winter expected to complicate fighting after a summer counteroffensive that failed to produce desired results due to enduring shortages of weapons and ground forces.

Despite setbacks, however, he said Ukraine won’t give up.

“We have a new phase of war, and that is a fact,” Zelenskyy said in an exclusive interview Thursday with The Associated Press in Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine after a morale-boosting tour of the region. “Winter as a whole is a new phase of war.”

Asked if he was satisfied by the results of the counteroffensive, he gave a complex answer.

“Look, we are not backing down, I am satisfied. We are fighting with the second (best) army in the world, I am satisfied,” he said, referring to the Russian military. But he added: “We are losing people, I’m not satisfied. We didn’t get all the weapons we wanted, I can’t be satisfied, but I also can’t complain too much.”

Zelenskyy also said he fears the Israel-Hamas war threatens to overshadow the conflict in Ukraine, as competing political agendas and limited resources put the flow of Western military aid to Kyiv at risk.

And those concerns are amplified by the tumult that inevitably arises during a U.S. election year and its potential implications for his country, which has seen the international community largely rally around it following Russia’s Feb. 24, 2022, invasion.

The highly anticipated counteroffensive, powered by tens of billions of dollars in Western military aid, including heavy weaponry, did not forge the expected breakthroughs. Now, some Ukrainian officials worry whether further assistance will be as generous.

At the same time, ammunition stockpiles are running low, threatening to bring Ukrainian battlefield operations to a standstill.

With winter set to cloak a wartime Ukraine once again, military leaders must contend with new but familiar challenges as the conflict grinds toward the end of its second full year: There are freezing temperatures and barren fields that leave soldiers exposed. And there’s the renewed threat of widespread Russian aerial assaults in cities that target energy infrastructure and civilians.

On Nov. 25, Moscow launched its most extensive drone attack of the war, with most of the 75 Iranian-made Shahed drones targeting Kyiv in a troubling precedent for the months ahead.

“That is why a winter war is difficult,” Zelenskyy said.

He gave a frank appraisal of the last summer’s counteroffensive.

“We wanted faster results. From that perspective, unfortunately, we did not achieve the desired results. And this is a fact,” he said.

Ukraine did not get all the weapons it needed from allies, he said, and limits in the size of his military force precluded a quick advance, he said.

“There is not enough power to achieve the desired results faster. But this does not mean that we should give up, that we have to surrender,” Zelenskyy said. “We are confident in our actions. We fight for what is ours.”

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, responding to Zelenskyy’s comments about military aid, said the U.S. provided “unprecedented” support.

“I certainly can’t dispute President Zelenskyy’s estimation that they haven’t achieved the success that they had hoped to achieve,” Kirby said. “But I can assure you that the United States has done everything we can.”

U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration wants to give more but faces resistance from Republican representatives in Congress, Kirby said.

“And if we don’t get that support from Congress, the message it is going to send around the world about how much Ukraine matters and how much the United States and our leadership can deliver to our partners around the world is going to be loud and clear and deeply unfortunate,” Kirby said.

Zelenskyy said there were some positive takeaways from the last few months.

Ukraine managed to make incremental territorial gains against a better-armed and fortified enemy, Zelenskyy said.

In addition, the might of Moscow’s Black Sea Fleet has been diminished, following Ukrainian attacks that penetrated air defenses and struck its headquarters in occupied Crimea, Zelenskyy added.

And a temporary grain corridor established by Kyiv following Russia’s withdrawal from a wartime agreement to ensure the safe exports is still working.

Zelenskyy, though, isn’t dwelling on the past but is focused on the next stage — boosting domestic arms production.

A sizeable chunk of Ukraine’s budget is allocated for that, but current output is far from enough to turn the tide of war. Now, Zelenskyy is looking to Western allies, including the U.S., to offer favorable loans and contracts to meet that goal.

“This is the way out,” Zelenskyy said, adding that nothing terrifies Russia more than a militarily self-sufficient Ukraine.

When he last met with Biden, members of Congress and other top officials, he made one urgent appeal: Give Ukraine cheap loans and licenses to manufacture U.S. weaponry.

“Give us these opportunities, and we will build,” he said he told them. “Whatever effort and time it will take, we will do it, and we will do it very quickly.”

Zelenskyy remains concerned that upheaval in the Middle East, the most violent in decades, threatens to take global attention and resources away from Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.

“We already can see the consequences of the international community shifting (attention) because of the tragedy in the Middle East,” he said. “Only the blind don’t recognize this.”

Ukrainians understand “that we also need to fight for attention for the full-scale war,” he said. “We must not allow people to forget about the war here.”

That change in focus could lead to less economic and military assistance for his country, he said. In an apparent attempt to assuage those fears, U.S. and European officials have continued to visit Kyiv since the Oct. 7 attacks in Israel.

The shift still concerns him, Zelenskyy said.

“You see, attention equals help. No attention will mean no help. We fight for every bit of attention,” he said. “Without attention, there may be weakness in (the U.S.) Congress.”

Turning to the upcoming U.S. presidential and congressional campaigns, where Biden faces skepticism over his staunch support for Kyiv, Zelenskyy acknowledged that “elections are always a shock, and it is completely understandable.”

There is much more at the link.

Also, Kirby is full of crap. The United States has most assuredly NOT DONE EVERYTHING WE CAN!

For instance:

Kyiv:

Mariupol December 2021 versus December 2023:

Avdiivka:

Tatarigami has published an interview with a Ukrainian who has been volunteering in Avdiivka. Here’s the link to the full interview at his Frontline Intelligence site, which includes a lot more pictures than those he can fit into the tweet.

Here’s the rest of the text from the tweet:

I am thrilled to present an incredible interview featuring Yana (@jana_skhidna), a 28-year-old Ukrainian volunteer who has recently returned from Avdiivka. It’s a highly illustrative story showcasing how people, specifically young Ukrainian women, continue to support Ukrainian troops on the most dangerous frontlines. If you’re curious about what’s happening in Avdiivka and wish to hear a firsthand account from a location typically closed off to journalists and the general public, look no further. We found her answers insightful, so don’t miss out!

(Due to limitations on the number of images in a single post, you can explore the complete article on our project’s website. The link is available in my bio, offering more images shared by Yana.)

1. Hello! Could you please provide a brief introduction and tell us more about yourself?

Y (Yana): My name is Yana, and I am 28 years old. Before the full-scale invasion, I worked in the construction industry as a manager of construction projects. I dedicated a lot of time to learning English and took additional courses in ArchiCAD and LIRA-SAPR. A significant part of my free time and, in general, my life, was devoted to studying and improving my knowledge in the field of design. However, after February 24, everything changed. All construction projects that were planned for 2022-23 were canceled and frozen. Currently, I am busy in the field related to my economics education.

2. How and when did the war start for you?

Y: The war began for me in 2014. It was a very challenging period during which I experienced depression. I constantly felt unwell both physically and morally. Of course, this affected the learning process, at times impacting my performance, interaction, and communication with people. I worked with a psychologist. It was a huge blow for me to realize that, 1000 km away from where I was living, studying, and currently residing, the most terrible thing was happening – war. It was surreal for me that while I was performing mundane actions, someone was dying, someone was getting injured, homes were destroyed. It was shocking to see that despite these events, people could calmly attend classes, go to work, cafes, and clubs.

A part of what I loved was forever lost in 2014. It tore me apart to think that while I was attending an accounting class, there were ongoing military actions in the Donbas region. It was also challenging because many people said, “They themselves called for the Russian world,” “They wanted Putin,” “It’s because of them that there’s a war.” These were people who never knew the history of Eastern Ukraine and never understood it.

3. When and why did you decide to become a volunteer? (In Ukraine, the term “volunteer” refers to individuals engaged in providing military and humanitarian aid to both military personnel and civilians. These volunteers contribute by fundraising, purchasing, and delivering essential goods to military units and civilians on the frontlines.)

Y: It seems that, like many others, it all started for me with weaving camouflage nets. Yes, there were requests for them, and we were told how important it was and how it helps our defenders. It was enough for me as a second-year student at that time. But, as I shared earlier, I found these events deeply painful, and I wanted to do more. I spent my entire scholarship on supporting the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU). It wasn’t about large-scale fundraising; I didn’t inquire about who was buying what and why. We had local volunteers and civic organizations in Chernivtsi (which are still active), and I financially supported them. It was important to me. At that time, intense battles were taking place in Donetsk Airport (DAP), Debaltseve, Ilovaisk, and so on. It was heart-wrenching, and I felt the need to be somehow involved in providing assistance.

Later, my mother and I started preparing homemade treats, and I delivered them to the military hospitals in our city. Every Tuesday, I would enter a random ward to visit the soldiers. There was a period when I consistently donated and supported the army without hesitation. Again, my mother always assisted me—whether it was making Easter bread for the soldiers or baking Christmas cookies to send to the front lines.

When the full-scale invasion began, on February 25th, my father and I filled our car with essential items and headed to the Territorial Defense headquarters in our city. We collected items for units that were being prepared and sent to the East. We were also helping civilians – by evacuating people from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Kyiv oblast, and evacuating animals, transferring them to Europe. Only when I completed my second higher education in May 2022 did we start going on humanitarian missions directly to the frontlines.

4. What is the essence of volunteering and who are volunteers?

Y: The essence of volunteering is perhaps in selfless work, in ongoing activities aimed not at gaining profit or any other additional benefits. Volunteering is, above all, the opportunity to influence environment, to initiate one’s own projects, and to change the country. When people become volunteers, they not only get a chance to express themselves, get new knowledge and skills, but also strive to make the lives of others better.

I believe that each person who calls themselves a “volunteer” has their own motives that prompted them to engage in this activity. For me, it is primarily patriotism and the fact that my country is at war. Parts of our land are immersed in pain, suffering, and blood. And then, it is about fulfilling the needs of the less fortunate, gaining new experience in working with people, organizing, and conducting various social projects.

Currently, the activities of the majority of volunteers and volunteer organizations in Ukraine are focused on helping the military, supporting refugees, and assisting people affected by the war. Because this is our own, our homeland, and I simply cannot comprehend or accept how one can be indifferent to this movement in such challenging times.

5. You’ve been to many cities and villages that were destroyed by Russian forces. What impressed you the most during your volunteer trips?

Y: Oh, here one could talk for days and nights because for almost 2 years of trips to the front and near-front cities and villages, there were many different situations and moments when I could cry and scream from pain and despair, when we laughed, probably hysterical laughter, when we said goodbye to life dozens of times and rejoiced because an important evacuation had succeeded, and when we scolded ourselves for arriving late.

I approach each of our trips calmly. For me, it’s like going to work, with one important nuance. I perceive it as work because I go to various locations to work with civilians and the military, to help them.

This time, I’ll share just one incident from our recent trip. We were working specifically along the Mariinka direction, and we entered the village of Maksymilianivka, just 5 km from Mariinka, or more precisely, the stones and ruins left of it. Before the war, 3000 people lived there; now, there are probably around 100. Maybe more, maybe less – it’s hard to count accurately because it’s constantly under shelling, and people hide in their homes, rarely coming out. In Maksymilianivka, they don’t allow entry without an escort; everyone is checked at the checkpoint. And it was the last day of our trip: we traveled to Avdiivka and its surroundings, Bakhmut direction, Vuhledar direction – everywhere destruction, grief, no communication, and here we enter a house in Maksymilianivka, and there’s light. It so impressed me, and I said to my colleague, “Wow, there’s light here, it’s a real miracle!”

In the midst of terrible devastation in the village, constant shelling, lack of communication, and internet just 5 km from the front line, we saw light in a house. The thing is, electricians stay there, and despite the constant threat of artillery, MLRS shelling, and Orlan drones, these people work until the last moment and provide light to the people who stay in the village. Our people will probably never cease to amaze me.

6. Let’s talk about the painful – Avdiivka. Tell me about your personal impressions from the recent visits.

Y: Avdiivka is my personal pain and a wound that has probably been with me all my life. Working and helping in Avdiivka – I mean both the military and civilians – is like living another life. Perhaps, after the war, I will write a book about it because so much has been experienced there. A lot of things that I cannot always talk about, and things that need to be told and shown to those who come after us, so that these things and stories are not forgotten.

I remember Avdiivka differently, in every season, and, of course, it hurts every time… as if for the first time when, instead of a city, I see piles of rubble and construction debris, and on the way to the city, instead of the outlines of a giant industry, I see clouds of black-black smoke from the next shelling…

I’m not saying it for the last time because I know that we will still work in the Avdiivka direction – and the last time I was there on my birthday.

On November 18, we woke up at 4 in the morning to load humanitarian aid for civilians and equipment for the military, so that by 6:00, a maximum at 6:30 AM, we would already be in the city. Avdiivka now is 22 km of a constantly shelled road. There are sections where enemy UAVs are actively working, so, as we say, we need to “skip” quickly. We entered without headlights, quickly, with open windows in the car to hear enemy UAVs.

The landscape in Avdiivka changes every night. Dozens of air strikes per day turn the city into complete ruins. There are fewer and fewer places for shelter, constant “KABs” (Guided Aerial Bombs), the scariest thing imaginable, when a building collapses like a house of cards before your eyes – I’ve seen that only in apocalyptic movies.

If you work with civilians: humanitarian aid and evacuation – everything needs to be done in the morning and very quickly. After the morning, the Russians fly with Orlans (recon UAV); they observe, and determine where there are groups of people (3 or more), from which building smoke is coming from a home stove, and KABs target it. Just damned scum waging war on absolutely unarmed and defenseless people.

It’s very hard for me when through the window of a burned, black building with broken windows, I see remnants of life – a small intact chandelier that will never shine again, winter clothes on the shelves that no one will ever wear, and neatly arranged books.

But every damn time we enter this city, and at the entrance, Ukrainian flags greet us, it adds strength and motivation to move forward. I want everyone, both here and around the world, to realize the price we pay to see these blue-yellow flags in Avdiivka, and what irreparable losses we suffer. When I see our tired, exhausted soldiers who clearly say, “It’s hard, but we’re fighting,” I understand that we have no right to get tired and stop. I’m ready to sacrifice my health, but I will be sure that I did everything to protect and help the bravest people in our country and our city, Avdiivka.

7. In your opinion, why is Avdiivka so important for the Russians?

Y: Avdiivka, like a bone in the throat of our enemies, has remained an impregnable fortress. Unfortunately, this fortress is now forced to defend itself. As they say now, “capturing Avdiivka is purely a political goal” for these damn Russians and Putin in particular. They need victories. But a victory over what? Over peaceful people who have been deprived of their homes or because they destroyed the entire city?!

Avdiivka is the gateway to Donetsk. From there, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have the opportunity to control the presence of the enemy in the oblast center, even by preventing them from moving certain vehicles and ammunition around the city. So, of course, they want to push the front line away from Donetsk. Another point, Avdiivka is probably the only defensive area that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not lost from 2014 to 2022. That is, during the time when there were large and difficult battles for Soledar, Bakhmut, Lysychansk, Severodonetsk, etc., their advances in Avdiivka were insignificant. Only the surrounding settlements from Avdiivka were lost to the Russians, and that was very long and very difficult for them. And another logistical component. I believe and will always believe that Avdiivka is a symbol of resistance. Probably even the Russians understand this, and that’s why they are pushing so hard in this direction. You have to look at the map and understand that Avdiivka is precisely that outpost that, from 2015 to the present, has practically not moved forward or backward. It’s a strong defensive zone that has been fortified.

8. Do you agree with the opinion that when the Russians cannot quickly surround a city, they systematically destroy it?

Y: Yes, I often think about it… Bakhmut, Popasna, Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Svatove, Kremenna, Mariinka, Vuhledar, Mariupol, Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, Siversk, Soledar, and so on… and these are just the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk that Russia has destroyed, erased below the foundations. Once peaceful, flourishing, industrial or not, these cities may never be rebuilt. And how many villages? It’s impossible to count. Millions of destroyed homes and millions of shattered human lives.

And when they write in their damn publics about the “liberation” of Donbas, I am disgusted with this phrase. Because it is total destruction. In some points of Avdiivka, the destruction is so catastrophic, but it is still being bombed, that I can no longer remember what this city looked like before. Avdiivka is a city where no building is suitable for even a major reconstruction. Also, a key location in Avdiivka was the AKHZ – once the largest coke-chemical plant in Europe, and a city formed around it. If the plant cannot be restored, there will be no more Avdiivka. All the industry of Avdiivka is destroyed, ruined, and brought to a state where it simply can never function again. Probably, this is what they seek – to destroy even the industrial potential of this region so that after the war, it will be simply unusable. These are absolute degenerates, despicable degenerates with nothing sacred, who just, for the sake of entertainment or idiocy induced by imperialist propaganda, destroy everything: schools, hospitals, kindergartens, abandoned warehouse buildings, residential and non-residential buildings.

When there is no success on the battlefield, they show their vile power through terror against civilians and through the total destruction of the city. Take, for example, Popasna – they just destroyed the city and announced that they would not rebuild it, and now they are using it as a military base.

9. I know that many Ukrainians trust you and constantly try to help. Do you feel foreign aid from ordinary citizens or organizations?

Y: Yes, as strange as it may sound, during this terrible war, there are pleasant moments, such as meeting incredible and strong people or receiving feedback from people. Trust from the community is the best thing anyone can receive. And of course, I am very pleased to receive trust and support from my fellow citizens and from foreigners. Getting help and support from the civilized world is very valuable to us. I always mention and sincerely thank Ukrainians abroad and foreigners in general for supporting the Avdiivka front. Sometimes people, when they see where we are going, how and where we work, say, “I want to help the defenders of Avdiivka!” I repeat, this is very important to me. It is important that the world sees the crimes that the Russians are committing in the once-small industrial city of Avdiivka.

Avdiivka is currently closed to journalists, so it is important to show how the city lives and fights, that there are still civilians here, and that the Russians are committing genocide against them. I am very grateful to everyone who supports our fundraisers for the defenders of Avdiivka, and to those who simply support me with warm words and wishes for success, because now it is more dangerous in Avdiivka than ever.

10. How can one help the defenders of Avdiivka? Are there any urgent needs that need to be addressed?

Y: Today, once again, I spoke with servicemen from the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, who have been firmly defending this direction since March 2022. The primary need is for combat equipment! There is also a shortage of personnel. Additionally, there is a constant need for drones: daytime, nighttime, strike, and FPV drones for installing surveillance cameras on various objects. Maximum unity and concentration of efforts are required. We must show that we are a reliable and worthy support for our defenders on the front lines.

11. After the war, what would you like to do?

Y: Certainly, I would like to return to my former job in the construction industry. I hope to resume working in the field of design. However, it is very difficult to imagine what life will be like after the war. In any case, I can never go back to my previous life. Our work will continue in one way or another, with a lot of tasks in the de-occupied territories, working with civilians, and humanitarian missions. But yes, along with that, I would still like to engage in design.

12. What places would you recommend for foreigners to visit in Ukraine?

Y: Currently, this is a very difficult and painful question for me because dozens of places I would recommend to visit to immerse oneself in the culture, better understand the locality, and experience the uniqueness of the region are unfortunately either destroyed, no longer exist, or are in temporary occupation.

Of course, I would like to recommend visiting Donetsk – as we used to call it, the “City of a Million Roses.” Or Soledar, there was something to be surprised about in Soledar: remnants of the ancient Permian Sea, industrial objects, steppe landscapes, vast lakes, and even “Martian landscapes.” And, of course, the salt mines. There, the descent is almost 300 meters deep, where there used to be a salt mining museum, a salt football field, a naturally occurring salt crystal the size of a human, sculptures created by local craftsmen, and a special hall for symphonic concerts. I also really liked the Avdiivka quarry, or as the locals called it, the “Maldives of Avdiivka.” They used to extract quartz sand there. The former industrial zone eventually turned into a local landmark. It had clean and cool water. But many, many other places were destroyed and ruined by the Russians.

So, I would recommend visiting the Carpathian Mountains. Take a walk through the wooded hills and blooming meadows, and definitely climb the highest mountain – Hoverla.

If you wish to provide direct assistance to the defenders of Avdiivka, kindly visit Yana’s account:

I kindly ask you to like and share this post as it is of utmost importance.

Kherson Oblast:

Nova Maiachka, Kherson Oblast:

Strike on administration building in Nova Maiachka, Kherson region.
(46.5993972, 33.2242458)
P.S: Russian military trucks hiding behind the building are visible on the photos.

It is also reported that recently the number of Russians in Nova Maiachka and Chaplynka area of the Kherson region has increased significantly.

Zalizhnyi Port, Kherson Oblast:

Hopefully someone will terminate this scumbag with extremely prejudice.

The Republic of Buryatia, Russia:

Yesterday, Russian media began reporting that a train carrying fuel caught fire while moving in the Severomuysky tunnel in Buryatia.

In the evening of the same day, Russian media again reported that a train caught fire in the Severomuysky tunnel. The train caught fire on the bypass track and also carried fuel.

And this morning, Russian media reported that it was a sabotage:

“On November 30, unknown persons blew up a freight train in the North Sea tunnel consisting of 50 cars (41 tanks with diesel fuel and 3 tanks with aviation fuel). According to the locomotive crew, during the passage of the tunnel the tension was relieved and the train slowed down. While the members of the brigade were figuring out what was going on, heavy smoke began to appear in the tunnel – the brigade left the tunnel.

As a result of the explosion, 1 tank of the train burned out, and a hole was found in two tanks. After the explosion, it was possible to remove 14 tanks, but further transportation of the cars is not yet possible – the explosion seriously damaged the rails, and the leaked fuel flooded them.

Later, another train was blown up in the same area. 4 tanks of the train burned out, two more were damaged by fire.”

Ukrainian media and some western media according to their sources related to SBU say that it was a work of the Security Service of Ukraine
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/11/30/europe/russia-train-fire-ukraine-intl/index.html

Another incident in Buryatia has been reported. According to the Russian TG channel “Mash” an IED was planted on the tracks.

“The explosive device detonated on the night of November 29-30, four kilometers from the village of Taksimo.
In total, the train contained 41 tank cars with fuel, 3 with aviation fuel and 6 with ferrous metal. No (human) casualties are reported.”

This is the same night where 100km away from this incident the other train in the Severomuysky Tunnel was struck. Kyiv Post said that a Ukrainian operation of the SBU is responsible for the strike and the SBU is certainly capable of this, but there could be also another explanation. The people of Buryatia are disproportionately used in Russia’s wars and suffered huge losses. I wouldn’t be surprised that this is the work of rebels. But that is speculation on my part.

Either way, Moscow has more problems in the Far East than it is willing to admit. Chelyabinsk suffered also a huge blow when the tractor factory was compromised some days ago.

Source: https://t.me/breakingmash/49833

#Ukraine #Russia #Buryatia

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Reader Interactions

24Comments

  1. 1.

    Alison Rose

    Before I got to your comment after the AP blockquote, I said “Man, fuck you, Kirby, you’re full of shit”. GMTA I guess.

    I’m impressed with how diplomatic Zelenskyy was able to be. Honest but not sounding as critical as he would have every right to sound. I’d imagine behind closed doors he is a little more colorful about it.

    This:

    Russian MoD links the armed forces surge to ‘growing threats from a special military operation and NATO’s ongoing expansion.’

    I think made me lose a few IQ points. Like…whose fault might these things be, broski?

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  4. 4.

    Martin

    Nice to see Ukraine operating so far east. Must give Russian officials a bit of heartburn. And targeting fuel trains going into tunnels is really smart. Tunnel fires are incredibly dangerous and can do serious damage to the tunnel, so depending on how long the tunnel is, an effective operation there could to a lot. The soviets lost as many as 700 soldiers in the Salang Tunnel fire in 1982 from a fuel truck catching fire. They lost other soldiers from carbon monoxide poisoning in the tunnel. Tracks can be repaired reasonably quickly, but tunnels are a lot harder, especially if it needs to be ventilated. That too can be worked around by having the crew wear respirators, but it adds up.

  5. 5.

    wjca

    @Martin: Tracks can be repaired reasonably quickly, but tunnels are a lot harder,

    Especially if the explosion(s) compromise the integrity of the tunnel roof.  If the roof collapses, instead of repair they’re looking at a major engineering project to rebuild it.

  7. 7.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: We were hearing about GLSDBs to Ukraine since the end of last year, so a year ago.

    The US did rush out the Phoenix(?) suicide drone/loitering munition to Russia w/in months of the current invasion. Why can’t that be done w/ the GLSBD, which is an existing program already underway?

  8. 8.

    Martin

    I seem to recall there was an ordinance we developed in Iraq/Afghanistan that went from development through testing to deployment in a couple of weeks. Bunker buster or air-fuel, one of those special use-case bespoke things.

  9. 9.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Martin: I think this is a very calculated strike. Damaging such a tunnel further west in Russia could severely disrupt the rail borne trade between the PRC & the EU via the Sino-EU railways network. However, the vast majority of the rail borne trade between the PRC & the EU goes through the border crossing at Horgos from Xinjiang into Kazakhstan, & then Kazakhstan into Russia, Belarus, then Poland. Damaging such a tunnel in Buryatia much farther east, in a region where rail lines are few & far in between, could significantly slow the transport of NK-sourced munitions to the front lines in Ukraine.

    I doubt the PRC would allow NK munitions to transit through its territory, to avoid really pissing off the EU.

  11. 11.

    way2blue

    Huh.  Such smugness.  I read a profile of White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby about a month ago explaining that he’s considered some sort of wonder boy across multiple WH administrations.  But.  Repeatedly makes boneheaded decisions; provides boneheaded advice.  Repeatedly.  Could have been written by Adam…  Any chance his star will dim?  Hate to clutch at straws.  But.  Jeez.

    “I certainly can’t dispute President Zelenskyy’s estimation that they haven’t achieved the success that they had hoped to achieve,” Kirby said. “But I can assure you that the United States has done everything we can.”

  13. 13.

    Martin

    @YY_Sima Qian: China is really starting to feel the impact of the US semiconductor sanctions and the passage of the CHIPS act. I suspect they’d like things to settle down a bit with the US as well.

  14. 14.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Martin: OT, but I think what the USG really missed about semiconductors is that getting line width below 14 nm no longer confers clocking speed advantages, but mainly lower energy consumption & greater density (thus smaller form factor). The higher energy & space efficiency is important for mobile consumer electronics applications, because devices need to be thin, light weight, & have long battery life. High energy & space efficiency is beneficial in high performance computing, cloud computing & AI LLM applications, by reducing operating (electricity) costs & capital investment (number of chips & amount of space), but they do not represent barriers. Electricity is heavily subsidized the PRC, & the government at all levels are happy to subsidize capital investment in strategic high tech industries.

    Even in consumer electronics, the benefit of thinner line widths is diminishing. That is why the latest Huawei Mate 60 series of premium phones, w/ HiSilicon SOCs made on SMIC’s 7 nm process, can match or exceed the user experience (in the vast majority of use cases) of the latest Xiaomi Mi 14 using the latest Qualcomm Snapdragon SOC made on TSMC’s 5 nm process, & match the user experience of Apple’s iPhone 15 w/ Apple SOCs made on TSMC’s 3 nm process. That is also why many people found the new iPhone 15 to be underwhelming, because from the improvement from the 5 nm process used on the iPhone 14’s SOC is not noticeable in most use cases. In fact, when it comes to signal strength in a greater variety of environments, Huawei phones are clearly superior to Xiaomis & iPhones because Huawei can use its own proprietary signal processing chip in its phones, while Xiaomi & Apple have to integrate Qualcomm chips. The only significant use case where the Mate 60 comes up short is graphic intensive mobile gaming, when it sometimes lag & can get hot. In all other use cases Huawei can compensate for the trailing generation process that its SOC is made on, by optimizing SOC design, integrating more components designed in house, & optimizing systems design.

    Similarly, Taihu Sunway just announced what is the 2nd fastest exascale supercomputer in the world using chips made w/ 14 nm process, again presumably at SMIC rather than TSMC. It might have taken more chips, & will consume more electricity, but the targeted performance can be reached. Going forward, the advances in semiconductors will likely come in advanced packaging & chiplet design, rather than ever thinner line widths. There, the race is reset, although TSMC has had the foresight to make significant investment early & has advantage in advanced packaging, too. That is before we get to quantum computing.

    What the semiconductor restrictions have accomplished is delayed the advancement of Chinese tech is some areas by a couple years, but not in areas that the US restrictions were aimed at containing (high performance computing, 5G roll out, or AI). Huawei was on track to far exceed Samsung on global mobile phone market share, its HiSilicon unit was outcompeting Qualcomm on mobile phone SOC design. These ambitions came to an abrupt halt in late 2019. OTOH, US export restrictions provided the impetus for Chinese companies to pivot toward Chinese suppliers across the semiconductor value chain, & reduced the revenue streams for US suppliers (chips, equipment, EDAs, etc.), all at a time when the global semiconductor market is in a severe cyclical down turn.

    Decades & hundreds of billions of investment into the semiconductor industry by the PRC government had failed to turn SMIC into a serious competitor for TSMC, or Chinese semiconductor equipment companies into serious competitors for ASML or Tokyo Electric. What all the investment did do was create Chinese suppliers across the semiconductor value chain that were in a position to compete if ever give the chance. They got 80% of the way, but the final 20% determined by market incentives proved very difficult to bridge. They could not break through against the likes of TSMC, Samsung, ASML, or Nvidia because few private (or even state owned) Chinese companies wanted to take the risk of using unproven domestic suppliers, whose products might have lower performance, less stability, smaller ecosystem of support tools, & high cost, when they can purchase the latest & greatest off the shelf from the established Western suppliers. The US semiconductor restrictions dramatically tilted the market incentives in the Chinese market toward the domestic suppliers. Chinese companies have no choice but to use domestic suppliers, & through their demands & assistance improve the yield, cost, performance & ecosystems of domestic solutions. Huawei has been taking the lead in this process. The US semiconductor restrictions gave the Chinese suppliers a huge, demanding & ultra-competitive market when the free market had not given them much of a chance.

    The latest tightening of export of Nvidia GPUs, for example, will disrupt the short term cloud computing expansion & AI LLM invesmtment plans of Alibaba, Tencent, Bytedance, Baidu, etc. (notice how all of them operate in the civilian economy). That forces them to purchase Huawei’s Ascend series of GPUs. The Huawei GPUs had been deemed comparable to Nvidia’s A100/H100 series by some of the biggest Chinese customers, but what it lacked was a comprehensive ecosystem of developers & development tools, comparable to Nvidia’s CODA, which makes it PITA for application. Now that the US is restricting competitive GPUs to Chinese end users, & what is allowed to be sold are uncompetitive against Huawei’s offerings, these large Chinese tech. companies have no choice but to turn to Huawei (or other domestic suppliers like Biren), & create the ecosystem of tools. Once that is done, they will no longer return to Nvidia even if the US relaxes restrictions at some point down the line. USG will turn Huawei into a Samsung, but on steroids.

    The forced tech. decoupling & the trigger happy sanctioning have also made the US (government, industry & media) largely blind to what is happening in the semiconductor space in the PRC. That is why USG was surprised that Huawei & SMIC commercialized a competitive SOC using a 7 nm process for a competitive premium phone w/ 5G. That is why Western industry observers were surprised that YTMC is maintaining its tech. lead in 3D NAND memories, ahead of Samsung. That is why Chinese supercomputing facilities no longer participate in global rankings, the latest Taihu Sunway being a rare exception, although the international experts who do the semi-annual rankings strongly suspect that the 3 fastest exascale supercomputers are all actually in the PRC. That is why few people even inside of the PRC really know the progress of semiconductor equipment among Chinese suppliers, especially lithographic scanners. RUMINT has it that SMEE’s immersion DUV scanners are being validated and qualified at SMIC right now. If fully commercialized in 2024, it will afford the PRC a completely domestic stack down to 14 nm, which no other country in the world has. One should not be surprised if a Chinese semiconductor equipment consortium manages to commercialize an EUV system w/in next 3 years, although everyone in West will be surprised.

    So no, Xi is not acquiescing to a temporary lowering of temperatures because of the bite of the US semiconductor restrictions. He is doing so because of the economic weakness caused by the deliberate deflation of the real estate sector, as the CPC regime attempts to shift economic gears. A number of industries are growing rapidly, including those associated w/ semiconductors & energy transitions, household consumption has been recovering post-“Dynamic Zero COVID”, service industries have been growing, electricity consumption has been growing at a healthy clip, but together they cannot yet eliminate the drag on the overall economy by the shrinking real estate sector. The Chinese government does not intend to splurge on infrastructure spending as a quick fix, as it did following the GFC, which led to a ballooning of debt.

  15. 15.

    wjca

    @YY_Sima Qian: Xi is not acquiescing to a temporary lowering of temperatures because of the bite of the US semiconductor restrictions. He is doing so because of the economic weakness caused by the deliberate deflation of the real estate sector, as the CPC regime attempts to shift economic gears.

    That hugely inflated real estate sector has been a ticking timebomb for the Chinese economy for a long time.  The PRC has attempted a controlled deflation several times.  Success has been underwhelming.  And as soon as controls are relaxed, due to other economic concerns, the sector reinflates like it had never stopped.

    Apparently the PRC will have to wait for economic forces to crash the sector, and then try to pick up the pieces.  Just how painful agonizing that will be remains to be seen.

  17. 17.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @wjca: Real estate sector in China has already been deflated. The direct & indirect contribution of real estate & construction to Chinese GDP has dropped from 30% to 24% today. The unrealistic expectation held by most Chinese households (& most local governments) that housing prices will go up forever has been decisively broken.  Construction employment actually peaked back in 2013 or so.

    If anything, the Chinese government is trying to prevent a total real estate crash that will drag down the larger economy, before alternative engines of growth have could take over, like how a car shifting gears can sometimes stall. Housing certainly has become much more affordable, which has economic benefits if prices can stabilizing. The government also wants to ensure that all of the apartments under construction, that households have prepaid for, are completed, to avoid social unrest. The financial restructuring of real estate companies & local government financing vehicles is actually fairly straightforward conceptually, but a massive job & daunting politically – a lot of vested interests & inertia need to be overcome:

  18. 18.

    dimmsdale

    thanks for mentioning the Ark Valley Voice column, Adam, and of course thanks for these remarkable & essential posts. Previously when you mentioned you were doing columns for Ark Valley Voice I stopped by frequently, and when Ark Valley became a nonprofit I went ahead and subscribed (on the theory that local news sources need all the support they can get).

    Finally (this concludes my business here today) I’d like to thank all your commenters, who add so much to your dispatches. Cheers all!

  19. 19.

    Bill Arnold

    @YY_Sima Qian:
    Thank you for that compact summary/analysis of the current state of the Chinese chip manufacturing commercial infrastructure/motivations. Useful.
    FWIW, shrinks (e.g. 14nm to 7nm to 5nm) do generally provide more capacity per chip, at least in the AI space. The limiter for AI is often on-chip SRAM amount (or a functionally similar memory approach).

  20. 20.

    Bill Arnold

    @way2blue:
    My impression of Kirby is that he attempts to tell the truth, in at least one parsing. He’d need to explain how he could justify that statement; it is obvious that the US could have delivered .e.g. longer-range weapons, and sooner.

  23. 23.

    Bill Arnold

    Kyiv Post said that a Ukrainian operation of the SBU is responsible for the strike and the SBU is certainly capable of this, but there could be also another explanation. The people of Buryatia are disproportionately used in Russia’s wars and suffered huge losses. I wouldn’t be surprised that this is the work of rebels. But that is speculation on my part.

    Could also be a hybrid; e.g. the SBU could be supplying rebels with detailed sabotage procedures known to work, and perhaps suggesting targets.

  24. 24.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Bill Arnold: More capacity per chip, yes, but that can be compensated by using more chips, as long as someone (I.e., the government) is subsidizing the electricity bill and the capital investment.

    In any case, it seems the likes of Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance & Baidu have stockpiled Nvidia A100/H100 chips before they became restricted, then stockpiled the de-clocked  A800/H800 chips before they too were restricted, enough to support their expansion plans for the next year or two. During that time they will pivot to Huawei or Biren GPUs for future builds. Nvidia has quickly came up w/ restrictions-compliant chips to supply the China market, just like how Nvidia developed the de-clocked A800/H800s when the A100/H100s were restricted, but the new China-specific solutions may no longer be competitive against the domestic offerings.

    Furthermore, while Nvidia will likely stay ahead for the foreseeable future, it is charging exorbitant prices for its GPUs, as it currently has a near monopoly outside of the Chinese market. One of the key value propositions of Huawei and Biden GPUs is much lower prices for just below par performance. Therefore, even if a user has to pile on more Huawei or Biden GPUs for the same overall performance, the total capital spend might not be much higher than if using the latest Nvidia GPUs.

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