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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 677: Ukraine Welcomed the New Year with Air Defense

War for Ukraine Day 677: Ukraine Welcomed the New Year with Air Defense

by Adam L Silverman|  January 1, 20247:44 pm| 22 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

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Anti-aircraft missile forces and mobile fire groups in action

📹: "South" Air Command pic.twitter.com/9tI2JRV59X

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 1, 2024

On New Year's night Ukraine's Air Defense destroyed a record number of Shahed drones – 87/90. Alarms blared all across Ukraine. We enter 2024 shaken, but unbroken 💪🏻🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/y24EyI6fYv

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 1, 2024

On New Year's Eve, our brave air defenders managed to shoot down a record number of enemy Shahed UAVs: 87 out of 90!
🇺🇦💪

📷: Oleg Petrasiuk (Illustrative photo) pic.twitter.com/X4ZmgGN4Nk

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 1, 2024

Unfortunately, one of the Shahed-136/131 drones Russia fired upon Odesa last night hit a high-rise building.

Source: https://t.co/CpNSVgugkp#Ukraine #Odesa pic.twitter.com/s6YcaugHoj

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 1, 2024

There is no new address posted yet today by President Zelenskyy. Yesterday I posted his New Year’s address, but here is his daily address to Ukrainians from yesterday, which is different than the New Year’s one. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

I signed several decrees on honoring our warriors and our gratitude to them – address by the President of Ukraine

31 December 2023 – 16:17

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

December 31 of the second year of full-scale war, of our resistance.

Recently I signed several decrees on honoring our warriors and our gratitude to them. And I want to talk about them today. Almost 700 warriors. The Army. The Air Force. The Navy. The Main Intelligence Directorate. Five Heroes of Ukraine, and four of them are intelligence officers, warriors of the Main Intelligence Directorate. Those whose heroic work cannot be disclosed yet, but whom we should all thank. Our heroes. Another “Gold Star” of the Hero of Ukraine is awarded to a warrior of the Armed Forces, Junior Sergeant Ihor Tymoshchuk. I personally presented him with the award during a trip to Avdiivka. He is a very strong guy. A strong commander. One of those who truly inspire. Four more warriors have now been awarded “Crosses of Military Merit”: Soldier Oleh Duzhenkyi from the 130th separate reconnaissance battalion, Soldier Mykyta Kaliayev from the 115th separate mechanized brigade of the Reserve Corps of our Ground Forces, Captain Bohdan Mazurenko from the 35th separate marine brigade and Major Roman Stryzhobyk from the 47th separate mechanized brigade. Thank you, guys, to each of you! Behind these awards are names that speak for themselves and bravery that is the more eloquent the fewer words you add to it. Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia region. A suburb of Horlivka, Donetsk region. Kherson region, the left bank of the Dnipro River. Krasnohorivka and Stepove, Donetsk region.

All of these nearly 700 warriors who have been honored today, as well as the medics who have also been awarded and to whom we are all grateful for saving our military, have shown themselves on the front line in combat brigades, in the defense of our people and the whole of Ukraine. On December 31, January 1, on every holiday and every weekday, our Ukraine is defended by such people, such Ukrainians. They are the strength and pride of our nation. And I want to especially thank everyone who is in combat, at combat posts, on combat missions now! Everyone who is at the front. Everyone who is defending our Ukrainian skies right now, on this day – Kropyvnytskyi and the region. Unfortunately, there are Russian strikes again today. And the guys will defend our skies tonight and tomorrow. Everyone who treats our servicemen, who is on duty in the ranks of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine. In local authorities. And everyone who uses the New Year to complete another fundraiser for the guys on the front line. I thank everyone who works and will work at our defense enterprises seven days a week. And everyone who will continue to communicate with Ukraine’s partners on January 1, tomorrow, without wasting time, so that next year our country will have as many capabilities as possible to fight the Russian evil.

I thank you all! 

Glory to Ukraine!

Everyone who currently is in battle, at an observation post, conducts reconnaissance or destroys the enemy by drone. Who rises to the occasion and retaliates. Relatives and friends of our warriors. Happy New Year to everyone who believes in and helps the Armed Forces of Ukraine! pic.twitter.com/HQdTrDZVvb

— Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (@CinC_AFU) January 1, 2024

Ukrainian anthem playing in the first moments of the New Year… absolute chills and goosebumps. Slava Ukraini! 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/D827OgV3BT

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 1, 2024

Ottowa:

Zelensky reported on additional NASAMS systems and missiles for NASAMS from Canada

"I am grateful to Justin Trudeau for his willingness to help strengthen the defense of the Ukrainian sky, in particular for the supply of additional NASAMS – systems and missiles for them,"… pic.twitter.com/iCj98HbL2Z

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 1, 2024

Zelensky reported on additional NASAMS systems and missiles for NASAMS from Canada

“I am grateful to Justin Trudeau for his willingness to help strengthen the defense of the Ukrainian sky, in particular for the supply of additional NASAMS – systems and missiles for them,” Zelensky said.

https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/9065

The cost:

There is no celebration, much like last New years.
Instead, it's reaching out to the fallens' families and of remembrance

I hope one day, the actions of these men can be released as well as actions of the Ukrainians who stood shoulder to shoulder as brothers..

RIP until we… pic.twitter.com/peIty1K2Tk

— Ryan O'Leary (@IhateTrenches) December 31, 2023

There is no celebration, much like last New years.
Instead, it’s reaching out to the fallens’ families and of remembrance

I hope one day, the actions of these men can be released as well as actions of the Ukrainians who stood shoulder to shoulder as brothers..

RIP until we meet again

 

40 бригада тактичної авіації.

Памʼяті Андрія Пільщикова, позивний «Джус» pic.twitter.com/zOWgI8VWsz

— Vadym Blonsky (@vadymblonsky) January 1, 2024

40 brigade of tactical aviation.

In memory of Andriy Pilschikov, call sign “Jus”

 

On this New Year Night, please remember that some 700 Ukrainian Azovstal defenders are still seeing this night in Russian captivity.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 1, 2024

Today, on 1 January 2024, Victoria Amelina would have turned 38. She was killed in the Russian missile strike in June 2023. Read her work and tributes to her memory in our @ukrlondonreview and continue Victoria’s legacy. https://t.co/gqlmZcXrBO

— Ukrainian Institute London (@Ukr_Institute) January 1, 2024

Bucha:

Bucha pic.twitter.com/5I89KcsV6j

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 1, 2024

Kyiv:

The first Kyiv sunrise of 2024 viewed from Saint Volodymyr's Hill pic.twitter.com/QKLlEu7Zqq

— Business Ukraine mag (@Biz_Ukraine_Mag) January 1, 2024

Sevastopol, Russian occupied Crimea:

/2. Sea Baby with MLRS pic.twitter.com/xuGzB8fTEY

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 1, 2024

The Ukrainian SBU released a video of one of their USVs. It shows a spectacular new development. Apparently, Ukrainian USVs are now capable to fire missiles. The video shows an attack against Russian Navy vessels at the port of Russian-occupied Sevastopol.

Source:… pic.twitter.com/8Dd36sD5XU

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 1, 2024

The Ukrainian SBU released a video of one of their USVs. It shows a spectacular new development. Apparently, Ukrainian USVs are now capable to fire missiles. The video shows an attack against Russian Navy vessels at the port of Russian-occupied Sevastopol.

Source: https://t.me/Crimeanwind/51185

#Ukraine #Crimea #Sevastopol

Novomykhailivka, Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

8 new Russian losses from the Novomykhailivka’s “Road of Death” area:
Four MT-LB; three destroyed, one damaged.
Two T-80BV; one destroyed, one damaged.
Two destroyed BMP-1.
Video by the 79th Brigade of Ukraine. https://t.co/wmpDi5ZRduhttps://t.co/BQtXCsyN5L https://t.co/XJ8AYosCf6 pic.twitter.com/aHFEgOANXM

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 1, 2024

Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

/2. This BUK-M2 equipment was targeted +30km from the frontline (48.048363, 38.198177) pic.twitter.com/j3hpDytxJA

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 1, 2024

Strong explosion of a Russian 2S1 “Gvozdika”, somewhere in the Donetsk Region.

Source: https://t.co/Y9ePiYSsBX#Ukraine #Donetsk pic.twitter.com/Bs408g8CRW

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 1, 2024

Results of the Ukrainian strikes against the “Donbas Palace Hotel”, where during New Year’s Eve high ranking Russians were having party. We still don’t have accurate readings on what the casualties are but Pro-Russian regime channels have been quite upset.

Source of video:… pic.twitter.com/rcbKdJLMGd

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 1, 2024

Results of the Ukrainian strikes against the “Donbas Palace Hotel”, where during New Year’s Eve high ranking Russians were having party. We still don’t have accurate readings on what the casualties are but Pro-Russian regime channels have been quite upset.

Source of video: https://t.me/uniannet/121663

#Ukraine #Donetsk

Stavropol, Russia:

Russian cruise missile Kh-101 fell, or was shot down by Russian air defense fire, on Russian territory, near the village of Novotroitskaya, Stavropol region. ~425km from the frontline. https://t.co/dak0X4HeCo pic.twitter.com/47R3uPTxru

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 1, 2024

Austin, Texas:

As much of a buffoon as this guy is, there is little difference between this and the likes of Sachs, Mearsheimer, and Schmemann, whose thrice-refuted pro-Kremlin propaganda is still published in respectable papers and journals. https://t.co/Y3WhKmgXCP

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) January 1, 2024

Obligatory:

Tymofiy Mylovanov, the head of the Kyiv School of Economics, has a long thread on how Ukraine broke the Black Sea blockade once Putin arrogated the grain deal. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App.

In 2023, Ukraine called Russia's bluff by breaking maritime blockage after Russia exited the Grain Deal.

The implications are significant:

1. Once again, Ukraine defied expectations and critics 1/ pic.twitter.com/2xbnNZtV4p

— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) January 1, 2024

2. It called out Russia’s attempt to use food as a weapon
3. It took some risky military actions against certain pressure from the allies

Details of the story: 2/ 

Russia’s withdrawal from the grain initiative in July 2023 led to an immediate escalation of missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s ports, blocking maritime exports

Ukraine anticipated this scenario and devised a plan to break the blockade 3/ 

That plan has succeeded. As of December 30, 2023, 400 ships carrying almost 13 million tons of cargo have been sent to 24 countries via the grain export corridor since August 8. 4/ 
Agricultural products comprise 70% of exports. 430 ships were received by Ukrainian ports through the corridor for unloading. 5/ 
Operational Ukrainian ports in the corridor zone include Pivdennyi, Odesa, Chornomorsk, Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi and Ust-Dunaysk.

Fully reopening the ports of Greater Odesa could increase Ukraine’s annual GDP growth by 8%. 6/ 

Russia was dissatisfied with the plans to bypass the blockade. As of end of 2023, almost 180 port infrastructure facilities were fully or partially destroyed. 7/ 
However, Ukraine has been able to push the Black Fleet back into its bases and significantly decrease its capabilities. 8/ 
The British Defense Minister stated in late December that Ukraine destroyed 20% of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet over the previous four months. Russia’s dominance in the Black Sea is now in question. 9/ 
After Ukrainian attacks in August and September, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet had to relocate ships and submarines, including missile carriers, from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. 10/ 
However, Ukraine has decided to move on Novorossiysk too. It was a high-stakes gamble that drew warnings from partners at all levels. The gamble succeeded. 11/ 
On August 3-4, Ukraine used a new SBU-developed “Mamai” suicide drone to strike Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in its harbor in Novorossiysk, hitting the landing ship “Olenegorsky Gornyak. 12/ 
Economically, the Novorossiysk attacks imposed hundreds of millions in losses on Russia from increased insurance rates. But they also impacted oil exports, concerning Ukraine’s partners. Ukraine received warnings from partners but persisted. 13/ 
This is because Novorossiysk is also a huge oil transshipment point. Through this port that oil giants from the United States export Kazakh oil. The “gray” export of Russian oil also takes place from there under the guise of other brands. So … Western business interests 14/ 
The gamble paid off – Russia eased pressure after the strikes, allowing Ukraine to open its own temporary maritime corridor for grain exports on August 10 without Russia’s agreement. 15/ 
But Russia continues to harass the maritime routes from Ukraine. One of Russia’s latest tactics is the remote mining of the sea with KABs. Russian bombers drop KABs equipped with special sensors onto the shallowest maritime routes. They explode when a ship passes over them. 16/ 
On December 5th, a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile shot down a Russian Su-24M bomber near Zmiinyi Island that was engaged in such mining activities 17/ 
So, the battle to break the maritime blockade continues. Yet, the results have shown that Ukraine can defy and contain Russia, even if the Western allies are worried about their own interests and are not always happy with that. Russia understands force and this story proves it X 
Sources:

pravda.com.ua/news/2024/01/1…

Ùîá ç³ðâàòè ðîáîòó “çåðíîâîãî êîðèäîðà”, ÐÔ ì³íóº ìîðå ÊÀÁàìèϳñëÿ â³äíîâëåííÿ Óêðà¿íîþ êîíòðîëþ íàä ×îðíèì ìîðåì ³ ðîáîòè “çåðíîâîãî êîðèäîðó” ðîñ³éñüê³ îêóïàíòè âäàþòüñÿ äî ð³çíèõ ï³äëîñòåé íà êøòàëò ì³íóâàííÿ àêâàòî𳿠êåðîâàíèìè àâ³àáîìáàìè.https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2024/01/1/7435423/
Àòàêà íà Íîâîðîñ³éñüê áóëà ñòðàòåã³÷íî âàæëèâîþ, õî÷à ïàðòíåðè áóëè íåâäîâîëåí³ – ÓÏÀòàêà íà ïîðò Íîâîðîñ³éñüêà ó ñåðïí³ 2023 ðîêó áóëà ñòðàòåã³÷íî âàæëèâîþ çàäëÿ â³äíîâëåííÿ “çåðíîâîãî êîðèäîðó”, õî÷à ì³æíàðîäí³ ïàðòíåðè ï³ñëÿ íå¿ âèñëîâëþâàëè ñâîº íåâäîâîëåííÿ Óêðà¿í³.https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2024/01/1/7435418/

The folks at The Economist did an interview with President Zelenskyy over the weekend.

My colleagues and I⁩ interviewed ⁦⁦@ZelenskyyUa⁩ remotely over the weekend. We asked him about how he views negotiations, the importance of Crimea and whether he has a Plan B in case American support diminishes or collapses entirely. https://t.co/NT9FGjEoXS

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) January 1, 2024

I asked Zelensky directly about what @Bundeskanzler told him on Taurus. “He didn't do it. But anyway, I'm very thankful to him. He did a lot, but not enough.” Zelensky emphasised issue was wider weapons supply. “It’s not about him. It's about the goal.” https://t.co/NT9FGjEoXS

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) January 1, 2024

Here it is via the Internet Archive: (emphasis mine)

Volodymyr Zelensky is angry; not about the successes of his enemies (he sees none) nor even about his own army’s lack of progress on the battlefield. Instead, Ukraine’s president is exasperated by the wobbles of some of his allies as well as the detachment among some of his compatriots. And he wants you to know it.

Hardened by the pressures of war, a year of negative headlines and the failure of a counter-offensive that promised so much at the start of 2023, he has shed the lightness and humour that characterised our earlier meetings with him. Seated in his situation room and speaking to The Economist via Zoom, he punches out his message as if trying to break through the computer screen.

The day after Russia invaded on February 24th 2002, Mr Zelensky galvanised the world and mobilised his country with a 32-second video recorded on his phone in which he said simply: “We are here.” He and his team are still there, in the vast government complex in Kyiv. Russia is still striking at Kyiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Odessa and elsewhere, but the world is no longer listening as intently and the master-communicator no longer controls the narrative as he did two years ago. In Ukraine weariness is setting in. In the West headlines ask whether Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, has started to win. Aid to Ukrainians has become a subject for political horse-trading in America and Europe.

The West has lost a sense of urgency and many Ukrainians have lost a sense of existential threat, Mr Zelensky says. He is now trying to rekindle both. “Maybe we did not succeed [in 2023] as the world wanted. Maybe not everything is as fast as someone imagined,” he says, but the idea that Mr Putin is winning is no more than a “feeling”. The reality, he says, is that Russian forces are still being slaughtered in places like Avdiivka, from where he has just returned. British defence intelligence sources estimate that, on current trends, Russia will have suffered more than 500,000 casualties, killed and wounded, by 2025.

“Thousands, thousands of killed Russian soldiers, nobody even took them away.” He emphasises that Mr Putin’s army failed to take a single large city in 2023, whereas Ukraine managed to break through Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea and is now shipping millions of tonnes of grain using a new route that hugs Ukraine’s southern coast. “Huge result!” the president declares.

Yet, as a former actor who managed to change how the world sees Ukraine, Mr Zelensky knows that perceptions can become reality in less helpful ways, too. In a war that has become about mobilising resources, the belief among Ukraine’s backers that victory has become impossible risks starving Ukraine of the money and arms that it needs to win. Fatalism can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

That is what makes the coming year so important. As Russia’s war effort cranks into higher gear, and Ukraine’s resources are depleted, the attention of America and many European countries is shifting to domestic politics in a year of elections. Mr Zelensky’s task is harder than ever, and the stakes have not been higher since those first days of fighting.

Central to his argument is that by supporting Ukraine, Europe is protecting itself from Russian aggression. “Giving us money or giving us weapons, you support yourself. You save your children, not ours,” he warns bleakly. If Russia is allowed to take Ukrainian children, “they will take other children”. If Russia violates the rights of Ukrainians, “it will violate the rights in the world”. If Ukraine loses, Mr Putin will bring his wars closer to the West. “Putin feels weakness like an animal, because he is an animal. He senses blood, he senses his strength. And he will eat you for dinner with all your eu, nato, freedom, and democracy.”

With hunched shoulders, Mr Zelensky rams home his points by banging his fingers on the white formica desk of the situation room: “Maybe something is missing. Or maybe someone is missing. Someone who can talk about Ukraine as a defence of all of us.” European countries should be lobbying America to support Ukraine for their own sake. “Intelligence services of several European countries have started to [examine] a possibility of attack on their territory from Russia… Even those countries that were not in the ussr.”

As for suggestions about negotiations, Mr Zelensky says he does not detect “any fundamental steps forward to the peace from Russia”. What he and Ukrainians experience instead is a barrage of aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities in the east, south, north and west. “I see only the steps of a terrorist country.” And if Russia sends signals about wanting to freeze the conflict, as some Western media have reported, “it is not because they are righteous men, but because they don’t have enough missiles, ammunition, or prepared troops. They need this pause. Restore all their strength. And then with all their strength, turn the page of this war.”

Mr Zelensky gives little away about what Ukraine can achieve in 2024, saying that leaks before last summer’s counter-offensive helped Russia prepare its defences. But if he has a message, it is that Crimea and the connected battle in the Black Sea will become the war’s centre of gravity. Isolating Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, and degrading Russia’s military capabilities there, “is extremely important for us, because it is the way for us to reduce the number of attacks from that region,” he says.

A successful operation would  be an “example to the world”, he continues. It would also have a big effect inside Russia. Losing a centre piece of the Kremlin’s propaganda would show that “thousands of Russian officers died just because of Putin’s ambition”. Ukraine is already scoring improbable victories on the strategically important peninsula, destroying a “good number” of ships in the Black Sea fleet—British officials say that a fifth of that fleet has been destroyed in the past four months alone. Losing naval bases that Russia has held for the past 240 years would be a huge embarrassment for Mr Putin.

But Mr Zelensky says that the speed of any success will depend on the military assistance he gets from Western partners. He has asked for the Taurus, a German-made, long-range stealth cruise missile with the ability to explode deep inside a target. This could enable Ukraine to destroy the $4bn Kerch bridge, in effect isolating the Crimean peninsula from Russia. “Russia has to know that for us this is a military object.” He suggests the Germans are not the only Western power standing in his way.

Mr Zelensky is still less open about his goals in the east and the south. Ukraine’s stated strategic ambition to restore Ukraine to its original borders, has not and will not change, but he is no longer setting time-lines and makes no promises of how much territory Ukraine can “de-occupy” next year. Its immediate task in the land war  will be “to defend the east, to save these very important cities of Ukraine, east and south, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv”, and to protect his country’s critical infrastructure.

The inflated expectations Mr Zelensky created ahead of the counter-offensive of 2023 were partly what led to a sense of disappointment. An interview by Valery Zaluzhny, the commander of Ukrainian forces, with The Economist in November 2023 acknowledged the stalemate on the battlefield. Although it initially sparked an angry reaction from Mr Zelensky, it has also given him an opportunity to shift his message. To sustain this grinding war it is not just the West that needs to mobilise, but first and foremost Ukraine itself.

“We must consider our own strength,” says Mr Zelensky. While he is still positive that America will, in the end, provide military aid, Ukraine, he says, is also building up its own production in case Western supplies fall short. It was a message he echoed in a defiant and sober New Year’s address that was markedly less upbeat than his words on December 31st 2022. As part of this Plan B, he is asking the American government to provide licences to Ukraine to produce weapons ranging from artillery systems and missiles to air defence.

The “mobilisation of Ukrainian society and of the world” at the beginning of the war is not present today, Mr Zelensky says. “That needs to change.” Polls suggest that reducing the mobilisation age from its current 27 years and reducing the grounds for exemption are not popular. But Ukraine’s leader insists there is no alternative.

“Mobilisation is not just a matter of soldiers going to the front. It is about all of us. It is the mobilisation of all efforts. This is the only way to protect our state and de-occupy our land. Let’s be honest, we have switched to domestic politics,” Mr Zelensky says. This is a choice Ukrainians will have to make. “If we continue to focus on domestic politics, we need to call elections. Change the law, the constitution. But forget about counter-offensive actions and de-occupation.”

Nearly two years into a full-scale war, Mr Zelenksy has lost his youthful vibrancy. But he remains vehement that Ukraine cannot turn back from its plan to defeat Russia. “The most important profession a Ukrainian can do at the moment is to be in Ukraine…and for our Western partners, it is to be with Ukraine…If you don’t have the strength, then either get out or step aside. We will not retreat.” The question is whether the master-communicator of 2022 can persuade the rest of the world to share that conviction.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

@patronthedog

Ми з Томом вітаємо усіх з прийдешнім Новим роком❤️

♬ оригінальний звук – Patron the Dog

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Tom and I wish everyone a very happy New Year. ❤️

Open thread!

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Reader Interactions

22Comments

  1. 1.

    Another Scott

    January 1, 2024 at 8:01 pm

    Related news – KyivIndependent.com:

    Norwegian companies will now be able to directly sell weapons and defense equipment to Ukrainian authorities following a decision from Oslo, Norway’s Defense Ministry announced on Jan. 1.

    The Norwegian government previously provided fiscal and military support for Ukraine but noted that donations are “no longer sufficient” as Russia’s war against Ukraine bleeds into 2024.

    As such, Norwegian defense companies can now apply for an export license from Norway’s Foreign Affairs Ministry to directly sell defense products to Ukraine.

    “The government is concerned that Norway should provide long-term and effective weapons support for Ukraine’s legitimate defense struggle, based on Ukrainian needs,”’ the Defense Ministry said.

    Strict conditions will be imposed on the sales in line with Norwegian arms export policy. This means that direct sales can only be made to Ukrainian authorities and that there is “documentation and official assurances about end use and end user, as well as a re-export clause.”

    […]

    I suspect more countries will have similar arrangements in 2024.

    And, for those (not here) calling for early negotiations…

    Darth Putin
    @[email protected]

    By this day in 2002 all Russian soldiers in Moldova and Georgia were promised to be removed.

    They were not. But please believe us when we negotiate now about our soldiers in Ukraine.

    [image]

    Dec 31, 2023, 05:31

    Something something won’t get fooled again.

    Thanks Adam, and everyone.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  2. 2.

    japa21

    January 1, 2024 at 8:07 pm

    Okay, the video with the national anthem playing succeeded in goosebumps and I suddenly realized how dusty it is here.

    Thanks, as usual, Adam.

  3. 3.

    Gin & Tonic

    January 1, 2024 at 8:19 pm

    Yesterday, the museum dedicated to Roman Shukhevych, General of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, on the outskirts of Lviv, was completely destroyed by a missile strike and resulting fire. The museum was located in the house in which he was hiding when he was killed by the NKVD on March 5, 1950. It is (was) a completely unprepossessing house in a residential neighborhood, with absolutely zero strategic or military value.

    The Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) grew out of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) and was primarily engaged in partisan/insurgent action against the Soviet Union in western Ukraine toward and after the conclusion of WWII. They were, of course, hopelessly outnumbered and clearly doomed, but they fought on until they were all eliminated. Naturally, they are heroes to many Ukrainians, and so every memory of them must be obliterated. As a good friend of mine wrote on FB: Time passes; the enemy is the same.

  4. 4.

    Alison Rose

    January 1, 2024 at 8:39 pm

    In a war that has become about mobilising resources, the belief among Ukraine’s backers that victory has become impossible risks starving Ukraine of the money and arms that it needs to win. Fatalism can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    “Fatalism can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.” YEAH. FUCKING DUH. I need a large empty room and a stack of plates I can throw against the wall. These scared little rabbits in certain governments are either too stupid to understand or too heartless to care that Ukraine’s victory would only become “impossible” (and I don’t like using that word) IF WE REFUSE TO GIVE THEM WHAT THEY NEED TO ACHIEVE IT. If in The Oregon Trail, when you went out hunting the game only gave you little rocks to throw at the bears, your whole wagon would have starved to death. If the message the game gave you afterward was “Wow you suck at this game, guess you shouldn’t play anymore”, anyone playing it would be like “that’s fucking bullshit” and they would be right.

    This isn’t rocket science. Ukraine has shown that when they have what they need, they can do what they have to do. If governments refuse to give them what they need but still demand that they do the same things and then use their lessened ability to do those things as the reason why we should continue to not give them what they need, that is some Escher-worthy logic, and there is Ukrainian blood on the stairs.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  5. 5.

    japa21

    January 1, 2024 at 8:48 pm

    @Gin & Tonic:

     

    It is (was) a completely unprepossessing house in a residential neighborhood, with absolutely zero strategic or military value.

    In other words, like 90% of the targets Russia goes after.

  6. 6.

    oldster

    January 1, 2024 at 9:03 pm

    Thanks, Adam!

    Now that 2024 is here, the races for US elections start in earnest, and so do my donations.

    Every candidate who asks for my support will have to show me that they support Ukraine.

    Luckily, most of the Democratic party is already on the right side of the issue.

  7. 7.

    Another Scott

    January 1, 2024 at 9:13 pm

    Interesting long thread by SamBendett on how FPV quadcopters in Ukraine are changing the way war is conducted, with numbers.

    (As usual, note all the caveats and recognize that much of it is inference and extrapolation.)

    It looks like Anoniminous and my musing about a million drones maybe wasn’t too far off. But neither side has figured out how to “swarm” them yet.

    (via RALee85)

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  8. 8.

    Nukular Biskits

    January 1, 2024 at 9:20 pm

    This may seem like a thankless task, Adam, but I read them every night.

    Thanks!

  9. 9.

    Jay

    January 1, 2024 at 9:42 pm

    As always, thank you Adam.

  10. 10.

    Adam L Silverman

    January 1, 2024 at 9:51 pm

    Everyone is most welcome.

  11. 11.

    Jay

    January 1, 2024 at 9:53 pm

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський
    @ZelenskyyUa
    31 Dec 2023
    Ukrainians are stronger than cold and darkness.

    Ukrainians are stronger than intrigues, falsehoods, psyops, pain, despondency, despair, and discord.

    Ukrainians are stronger than fear.

    Ukrainians are stronger than terror.

    Ukrainians are stronger than evil.

    Ukrainians are stronger than this war.

    Ukrainians are stronger together.

    Happy New Year 2024, Ukraine!
    Glory to Ukraine!

    https://nitter.net/ZelenskyyUa/status/1741576751577219404#m

  12. 12.

    Jay

    January 1, 2024 at 10:00 pm

    Ruth Deyermond
    @ruth_deyermond
    31 Dec 2023
    Since it’s that time of year again, 12 end-of-year and start-of-new-year thoughts about Russia’s war against Ukraine and its implications. A long 🧵
    Dec 31, 2023 · 5:06 PM UTC

    Ruth Deyermond
    @ruth_deyermond
    31 Dec 2023
    1. Russia can’t win. In recent months, there’s been a lot of discussion in the West about Russian victory, but the Russian govt’s objectives were unrealistic from the start, and impossible to achieve almost as soon as the fighting started.
    Dec 31, 2023 · 5:06 PM UTC

    https://nitter.net/ruth_deyermond/status/1741506060945326129#m

    A long thread, well worth reading.

  13. 13.

    Adam L Silverman

    January 1, 2024 at 10:09 pm

    In a thread on BlueSky today, in reference to Cole, I created the phrase “hillbillying ain’t easy.”

  14. 14.

    Wombat Probability Cloud

    January 1, 2024 at 10:26 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: I thank you, also.

  15. 15.

    YY_Sima Qian

    January 2, 2024 at 12:16 am

    Uhh! The Putin regime is just so despicable in every conceivable aspect. Not only does it not follow the international laws in armed conflict, w/ only unrelenting malevolence toward Ukrainian civilians (including & especially those under its occupation) & POWs, it has shown zero concern for the lives of its own troops or the welfare of its own citizens, or even Russia’s standing as a global power. Its only ambition is to be a global spoiler & agent of chaos, & seek advantage from that chaos. It has zero ambitions for any kind of international order, at all

    It appears that, as long as Ukraine & other former parts of the Russian empire are brought under its domination, the US & the West are brought low, Putin doesn’t really care if Russia is badly damaged in the process. Even if being badly damaged will greatly diminish Russia’s long term ability to hold on to any gains it might seize.

  16. 16.

    YY_Sima Qian

    January 2, 2024 at 12:24 am

    OT, a very critical piece in Mother Jones on Biden’s long standing bias toward Israel. The reporting is almost entirely attributed to anonymous sources, so take it for whatever it might be worth. I would also not take passages from Bibi’s memoir regarding interactions w/ Biden at face value, but that would just be another way for Bibi to knife Biden in the front. Anyway, Biden may have a very large blind spot when it comes to Israel.

    How Joe Biden Became America’s Top Israel Hawk
    The president once said “Israel could get into a fistfight with this country and we’d still defend” it. That is now clearer than ever.
    NOAH LANARD
    DECEMBER 22, 2023

  17. 17.

    Mart

    January 2, 2024 at 12:51 am

    @Another Scott: Seems to me (who knows nothing about warring) that most all money spent on the navy, air force, and  ground forces should be redirected into droning. The millions of no longer needed personnel should be sent to Swedish, Belgium, and German owned factories in 46 US states to produce drones for the new UArmy.

    ETA: Expect this will be the next threat to the end of the world.

  18. 18.

    wjca

    January 2, 2024 at 1:39 am

    @Mart: most all money spent on the navy, air force, and  ground forces should be redirected into droning. The millions of no longer needed personnel should be sent to Swedish, Belgium, and German owned factories in 46 US states to produce drones for the new UArmy.

    You manage to overlook (or ignore) one not so minor detail: time.

    In the time it would take to relocate all those troops to drone making, the unopposed Russians would have taken over the country.  Plus most of the troops would require training (more time) in order to make drones. Not to mention that the factories aren’t exactly sitting empty (and with raw materials piled up on site ready to go), just waiting for staff to run them.

    Of course, you may have a magic wand with which to instantaneously move people and retrain them.  Not to mention get the necessary new plants built, raw materials orders filled, etc.  If you’ve got that, sure.  Great plan.

  19. 19.

    bjacques

    January 2, 2024 at 2:52 am

    @YY_Sima Qian: like Hamas and ISIS, Putin’s goal is to drag the rest of the world down to his level of a feudal state, so most of the world’s people will only ever be expendable peasants or at best intendants, world and amen.

  20. 20.

    Manyakitty

    January 2, 2024 at 3:27 am

    @YY_Sima Qian: this is perfectly aligned with far right movements across the world. They are chaos agents, best on destruction.

  21. 21.

    Mart

    January 2, 2024 at 1:25 pm

    Was trying to say mothball 8 aircraft carrier fleets and spend the money on drones. Quit making $750 million a piece bombers and spend the money on drones.

  22. 22.

    AlaskaReader

    January 2, 2024 at 4:42 pm

    Thanks Adam

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