Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

He imagines himself as The Big Bad, Who Is Universally Feared… instead of The Big Jagoff, Who Is Universally Mocked.

An unpunished coup is a training exercise.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

I have other things to bitch about but those will have to wait.

It’s the corruption, stupid.

Putin dreamed of ending NATO, and now it’s Finnish-ed.

…and a burning sense of injustice to juice the soul.

The choice is between normal and crazy.

“But what about the lurkers?”

The words do not have to be perfect.

The willow is too close to the house.

Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.

I wonder if trump will be tried as an adult.

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

In after Baud. Damn.

I didn’t have alien invasion on my 2023 BINGO card.

It’s pointless to bring up problems that can only be solved with a time machine.

Hey Washington Post, “Democracy Dies in Darkness” is supposed to be a warning, not a mission statement.

Nothing says ‘pro-life’ like letting children go hungry.

Ron DeSantis, the grand wizard, oops, governor of FL.

People are weird.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

Joe Biden can go out like FDR, not by dying in office, but by crushing the fascists.

Bark louder, little dog.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 759: Strike Sevastapol!

War for Ukraine Day 759: Strike Sevastapol!

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We’ll have to wait for more details.

Russia is still targeting Kharkiv:

Including another double tap strike. The first strike brings in the emergency services responders and the second one targets them once they’re on site.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Around the world, we must defend against those who consider people merely expendable – address by the President of Ukraine

23 March 2024 – 22:00

Dear Ukrainians,

Today, throughout many cities and communities of our state, municipal services, repair teams, and energy workers have been tirelessly working on the aftermath of the Russian terrorist attack that occurred on Friday. People have been working continuously for the second day.

At this moment, normal power supply has been restored almost everywhere. There were some problems today in our city of Odesa – there were emergency shutdowns. Everything possible is being done to normalize the situation. Unfortunately, in Kharkiv, it’s still very challenging. Today, there was another missile strike from Russia – these strikes continue daily. And everyone who is working to keep normal life in Kharkiv, in the region, in other border cities and communities, they are all true heroes. I thank every rescuer of our State Emergency Service of Ukraine, all employees of energy companies involved, police officers, local services, volunteers – everyone who is helping. Thank you for your dedication to protecting people!

I want to specifically acknowledge and thank the experts in Ivano-Frankivsk region, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytsky, Sumy region, Poltava region, our Dnipropetrovsk region, and Zaporizhzhia. Thank you for your efficient work! Today, I received reports from the regions, from the head of the government, from the Ministry of Internal Affairs, of course, from our military. The state must ensure a systematic response to every Russian strike.

I also want to recognize all the leaders of states, heads of international institutions, and all our partners who have expressed their support for Ukraine these days. It is important to act together every time missiles and drones attempt to destroy our lives. To act to reduce the potential for terror, to block it. This particularly concerns air defense systems, as well as sanctions. All these Iskander, Kinzhal and other Russian missiles have dozens of components imported for terror from other countries. The missiles used in this attack against Ukraine, against our energy system, had at least three hundred types of components from ten countries. Together with the “Shahed” drones, there were at least seven and a half thousand components in total. Each of them represents a violation of sanctions regimes against Russia, each one represents someone’s attempt to make money from destroying lives. This needs to be stopped.

Another thing. What happened yesterday in Moscow is obvious, both Putin and other scoundrels simply try to blame everything on someone else. They always resort to the same methods. It’s been done before. There have been blown-up houses, shootings, and explosions. And they always blame others. They have come to Ukraine, burn our cities – and try to blame Ukraine. They torture, rape people – and accuse them. They have brought hundreds of thousands of their terrorists here, to Ukrainian land, they fight against us, and they don’t care what’s happening inside their own country. Yesterday all this happened, and this absolute miserable Putin, instead of attending to his own citizens of Russia, addressing them, remained silent for a day – thinking about how to link this with Ukraine. Everything is absolutely predictable. Those hundreds of thousands of Russians who are now killing on Ukrainian land would surely be enough to stop any terrorists. And if the Russians are ready to silently die in “Crocus Halls” and not ask any questions to their security and intelligence agencies, then Putin will try to turn such a situation to his personal advantage again.

Terrorists must always lose. I thank everyone who truly defends life! I’m grateful to all our people who are fighting against terror. And around the world, we must defend against those who consider people merely expendable.

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

The AP takes a dive into Russia’s attack on Ukraine’s energy sector. (emphasis mine)

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia unleashed one of its most devastating attacks against Ukraine’s electric sector on Friday, an aerial assault it said was retaliation for recent strikes inside Russia and which could signal an escalation of the war just days after President Vladimir Putin cemented his grip on power in a preordained election.

Many Ukrainians were plunged into darkness across several cities, at least five people were killed, and damage to the country’s largest hydroelectric plant briefly cut off power to a nuclear plant that has been a safety risk throughout the war.

Russia fired off more than 60 exploding drones and 90 missiles in what Ukrainian officials described as the most brutal attack against its energy infrastructure since the full-scale war began in early 2022.

Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, sustained the most damage, officials said, and the attack came a day after Russia had fired 31 missiles into the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been urging Western allies for weeks to provide it with additional air-defense systems and ammunition, a period in which $60 billion in U.S. aid has been held up by divisions in Congress.

“With Russian missiles, there are no delays, like with aid packages to our state,” Zelenskyy said. “It is important to understand the cost of delays and postponed decisions.”

Russia’s defense ministry called Friday attacks “strikes of retribution.” Ukraine has increased shelling of Russia’s Belgorod region along its northeast border and has launched drone strikes targeting Russian oil refineries and other energy facilities.

Ukraine’s latest strike inside Russia on Friday killed one and injured at least three, according to local officials.

Putin has described Ukrainian attacks on Belgorod and other regions as an effort to frighten residents and derail the highly orchestrated election that ended Sunday. And he vowed to strike back.

The day after he declared victory, Putin said Russia would seek to create a buffer zone inside eastern Ukraine to help protect against long-range strikes and cross-border raids.

Russia has made progress on the battlefield in recent months against exhausted Ukrainian troops struggling with a shortage of manpower and ammunition along the front line that stretches over 1,000 kilometers (620 miles).

When Putin invaded in 2022, he called it a “special military operation,” and his officials have mostly eschewed the word “war.” But in a change of rhetoric Friday that may herald a new escalation, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told a Russian newspaper that “when the collective West became a participant in this on the side of Ukraine, for us it already became a war.”

In the winter of 2022-23, Russia targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing frequent blackouts across the country. Many in Ukraine and the West expected that Russia might repeat this strategy this winter, but Russia instead focused its strikes on Ukraine’s defense industries.

While launching the strikes, Russia has combined sophisticated ballistic and cruise missiles with waves of cheap Iranian-made Shahed drones in a bid to oversaturate and weaken Ukrainian air defenses.

Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, head of the national utility Ukrenergo, described Friday’s barrage as the largest assault on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since the full-scale war began.

“This attack was especially dangerous because the adversary combined different means of attack, kamikaze drones, ballistic and cruise missiles,” he said.

Kudrytskyi said that Russia “tried to destroy every significant energy object powering the city of Kharkiv,” leaving at least 700,000 without electricity. He estimated that several hundred thousand customers in other regions were also left without power.

More at the link.

Novomykhailivka:

 

More on the Crocus disco attack:

First, I’ve seen the videos and the pics circulating of the men that Russia has detained. YOU DO NOT NEED TO GO AND LOOK FOR THESE, WATCH THEM, OR LOOK AT THEM!!!! These were supposedly the perpetrators of the attack that Russia claims were trying to make it to Ukraine. They weren’t, they were headed to Belarus. Moreover, they most likely aren’t even the actual shooters. ISIS has released their own video from inside the Disco. I have no doubt that ISIS did this. At this point I also have no doubt that Russia not only received the US warning, but that they decided to use it for their own purposes. Specifically they prestaged a bunch of dupes that they could arrange to flee from the attack, then arrest, brutally interrogate, and claim Ukraine was somehow involved. The last bit intended to provide the usual suspects in the US, UK, and Europe to then blame the US, the Brits, and various European states of involvement because they’re all backing Ukraine. David Sacks, Scott Ritter, and Douglas MacGregor have all taken the bit from the Russians.

Putin telegraphed this a few days ago:

All of the suspects, as well as a number of those the Russians listed as wanted and at large, are Tajiks. Many of the identified Tajiks are and have been in Tajikistan. They voluntarily went to the authorities to prove they could not have done this. The men the Russians have arrested and are torturing seem to have no idea what is going on. I expect they are Tajik guest workers who got paid a decent amount of cash to be in the van and driving in a certain direction. Russians do not view the central Asian guest workers as human.

A new manual designed to help migrants from Central Asia has caused a storm in Russia’s second city because of its apparent racist content.

According to RFE/RL’s Russian Service, the local prosecutor’s office in St. Petersburg has launched preliminary investigations into “Instructions for Labor Migrants,” which was recently published in Kyrgyz, Tajik, and Uzbek.

The booklet has been printed by the Look Into The Future publishing house and is seemingly intended as an aid for thousands of migrants from Central Asia, many of whom are employed as construction workers in Russia’s major cities.

Along with legal information concerning Russian rules and regulations, the booklet also provides some social advice.

Among other things, it warns labor migrants not to spit in the street, not to squat, not to litter, and not to wear bathrobes or tracksuits in public places.

The booklet’s illustrations also depict labor migrants as tools commonly used in the construction industry, such as hammers, brooms, paintbrushes, and paint scrapers.

Somewhat controversially, the pictures portray these immigrants being met at the airport by real human beings wearing the uniforms of Russian customs officials and border guards.

Here’s the image being referred to in the RFE/RFL reporting:

An illustration from a Russian pamphlet for Central Asian labor migrants/guest workers. It is an illustrations that depicts the labor migrants as tools commonly used in the construction industry, such as hammers, brooms, paintbrushes, and paint scrapers. In this image they are being met at the airport by Russians that are drawn as real human beings wearing the uniforms of Russian customs officials and border guards, as well as a doctor and female professional.

You may remember that in October 2022, there was a shooting at a Russian military training base in Belgorod Oblast, Russia. This was blamed on Tajik guest workers who had “volunteered” to join the Russian military and fight in Ukraine. It is illegal under both Russian law, as well as the central Asian states, for the guest workers to join the Russian military and fight for the Russian military in the genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine. I will not be surprised if the Russian narrative evolves that the Crocus disco attackers were trying to get revenge for the two Tajik guest workers and that the Ukrainians somehow organized the whole thing.

 

I’m pretty sure Putin himself prepared his “address” on the Moscow mass murder.

Sure, ISIS attackers had a “window” to flee into Ukraine through, just across minefields of the war zone of the Russian-Ukrainian border and hordes of the Russian military and the border guard that were apparently supposed to let them leave.

Here’s Tatarigami’s assessment. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App. There is some graphic imagery in here. So keep that in mind as you read through.

2/ Firstly, on March 7th, the US Embassy in Russia issued a public warning regarding extremist plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, including concerts. Subsequently, after the attacks, the US confirmed sharing this info with RU security forces. US officials suspect ISIS-KImage
3/ From the outset of the attack, there were efforts to link it to Ukraine. This included the circulation of the van photos with Belarusian license plates, blurred to insinuate Ukrainian origin, as well as claims in RU media suggesting Slavic attackers with fake beards were seenImage
4/ Prominent Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan, closely tied to the Kremlin, pushes the narrative of Ukrainian ties. This echoes Putin’s speech about ‘Ukrainians leaving the open window at the border for terrorists’, confirming that the narrative originates in KremlinImage
5/ The group was allegedly detained in the same white car in Bryansk Oblast. The journey typically exceeds 4 hours. Given the number of traffic cameras for identification on the way, it’s astonishing they made it that far. It’s either severe incompetence or deliberate maliceImage
6/ The attack occurred mere minutes away from a major base of the militarized police (Rosgvardia) in Moscow, yet armed units arrived significantly later, allowing the perpetrators to flee in the same vehicle they arrived in. It’s either deliberate negligence or gross incompetenceImage
7/ Despite claims, there is no concrete evidence linking these attacks to Ukraine. Regardless of the actual perpetrators, it’s likely that Russian authorities will exploit the attack to propagate a “Ukrainian trace” narrative, prioritizing political agendas over facts 
8/ Any statements made by detained suspects lose credibility due to FSB pressure applied towards them. For instance, one of the detainees, Shamsutdin Fariddun, already admitted receiving payment to carry out the attack from an anonymous person who contacted him through TelegramImage
9/ In one of the videos, a detained person is shown having his ear cut off by Russian servicemen. Undoubtedly, under such pressure, they will confess to anything, whether it be ties to Ukraine, the CIA, or even admitting involvement in the assassination of Kennedy.Image
10/ If the described failures are indeed due to gross incompetence, it reveals significant vulnerabilities in Russia’s ability to counter such threats, posing a risk of future attacks. If it was intentionally overlooked, it will likely continue as well. 
11/ Additionally, Russia’s history of supporting terrorism in various regions, including Ukraine, Syria, CAR, and Mali, as well as assassinations in countries like the UK and Germany, underscores the ongoing threat posed by Russian state-sponsored terrorismImage
12/ This tragedy also underscores the Russian state’s inconsistent approach to terrorism, maintaining relationships with organizations like Hamas, Taliban, and Houthis despite their history of terrorist activities. Such ambiguity always leads to unintended consequences. 
13/ In conclusion, while the loss of civilian lives in such attacks is tragic, the Russian government’s priorities seem to lie elsewhere, sacrificing the lives and safety of its citizens for broader geopolitical goals under Putin’s regime. 
Please like and share this thread (the initial message), as many messages discussing the Ukrainian topic or war aren’t receiving much attention on X. Therefore, I’m asking you to help with the algorithm by liking and sharing the top message of the thread. Thank you. 

Kuybyshev refinery, Samara Oblast, Russia:

Here’s the full text of the first tweet:

/1. After a short pause, drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have resumed. Kuybyshevsky oil refinery in Samara region of Russia, 900km from the frontline, is on fire as a result of drone strikes. Russian media claim that “columns are on fire”. Kuibyshev Oil Refinery is one of the largest enterprises in the oil industry in the Samara region. The refinery’s design capacity is 7 million tons of oil per year. The range of products produced by the Kuibyshev Refinery includes more than 20 types of petroleum products. The main ones: gasoline, diesel fuel. P.S: Kuybyshevsky and Novouybyshevsky oil refineries are located just ~10km apart therefore, at first there was confusion about which refinery was hit.

And the second:

/2. The Governor of the Samara Region about the Drone attack on the oil refineries:
“Tonight there were drone attacks on the oil refineries in the region. As a result, a primary oil refining column caught fire at the Kuibyshevsky Oil Refinery. There are no casualties or injuries. Emergency services and law enforcement agencies are working on the spot, and an operational headquarters has been created.
At the Novokuibyshevsky Refinery, the attack attempt was repelled. There was no damage to the technological equipment.”

 

So, given all the fuss over ongoing Ukrainian strikes on Russian petroleum refineries, the Kremlin is putting insane pressure upon the U.S. administration.

I’m pretty sure that Russians, via their unofficial back channels, yelled the same old magic words like ‘escalation’, ‘retaliation’, and ‘nukes’, and vowed to stir up troubles in the global oil and gas market amid U.S. presidential campaign.

And, of course, it has been easier to just twist Ukraine’s arms and absurdly demand that it doesn’t strike the Russian oil refining industry, an essential part of the Kremlin’s war economy, even with weapons of Ukraine’s own making.

This only means Ukrainian drones are now really hitting where it hurts.

Especially given the fact that Russia urgently halted all gas exports and that, for instance, large Indian refineries now decline to work with Russian crude oil due to sanctions.

It’s also quite possible that the recent large-scale missile attack on Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure was again ‘an act of retaliation’ for the painful drone attacks.

As of now, we have at least 11 Russian refineries damaged or knocked out of operation by Ukrainian strikes all across Russia’s European area.

Given the fact that the latest strike took place just last night at the Novokuibyshevsky refinery in Samara Oblast, Ukraine probably respectfully declined to keep the Kremlin’s precious oil pleasantly fine and safe.

Now keep watching the Kremlin’s war money burn.

Support my work: https://buymeacoffee.com/saintanger

Belgorod:

For you drone enthusiasts.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. So here is some adjacent material from the Ukrainian MOD:

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

56Comments

  1. 1.

    zhena gogolia

    I knew Simonyan and her like were going to blame “хохлы”, which isn’t “crests” but a derogatory term for Ukrainians. I could just hear her saying it before she said it.

    ETA: I assume “crest” comes from some literal translation — it derives from the traditional Cossack forelock hairstyle.

  2. 2.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Thanks Adam!

    Putin’s cynical response to (& possibly a priori plan to take advantage of) the terrorist attack is utterly despicable, & renders his regime illegitimate even under its own terms. His actions in Ukraine have already shown him to be despicable under reasonable terms.

  3. 3.

    Harrison Wesley

    What I have trouble understanding is ISIS being the culprit.  Fundamentalist muslims launching an attack during Ramadan – and on a Friday, no less – doesn’t add up.  My inclination is to think the Russians did it themselves, but that’s completely insane.

  4. 4.

    Jay

    Thank you as always, Adam.

    Anton Gerashchenko has a couple of posts, ripping holes in the ruZZian terrorists and genocider’s narrative.

    https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en

    Amongst other things, zero security, (that is normally present, no armed security, no searches, metal detectors unused, fire sprinklers turned off), OMON “SWAT” responded first, after an hours drive, when there was Rovsguardai a block away,…………………..

    From all appearances, ruZZian “Security Forces” deliberately enabled the attack.

  5. 5.

    Gin & Tonic

    But we wage war with the capabilities, resources and practices that are available to us.

    As one should expect. Unless one is a moron.

  7. 7.

    Jay

    @Harrison Wesley: IS has often attacked during Ramadan. They actually stage more, and more severe attacks during Ramadan.

    And they are not Fundamentalists. They are Extremists embracing a very twisted form of Islam.

  8. 8.

    Westyny

    Thank you, Adam.  Nothing the Kremlin says is believable.  Captured “terrorists” on camera aren’t believable. No story, statement, image purporting to be from any Russian institution is believable.  Something terrible happened.  But the “authorities” cannot be trusted to give any truthful account as to what happened and what’s happening now.  There must be a word for this state of affairs.

  11. 11.

    Gin & Tonic

    @zhena gogolia: I don’t know the derivation of “хохоль.” The closest Ukrainian word I’m aware of is the feminine noun “хохля” – which is a ladle.

  13. 13.

    zhena gogolia

    @Gin & Tonic:

    Inherited from Old East Slavic *хохолъ (*xoxolŭ), from Proto-Slavic *xoxolъ < *koxolъ. Compare Polish chochoł, Polish chachoł and Czech chochol.

    The usage of хохол against Ukrainian people was derived from the оселе́дець (oselédecʹ), a traditional top-knot used by Ukrainian men. It acquired a derogatory connotation and is considered an ethnic slur as well as all the terms derived from it.

    Pronunciation
    IPA(key): [xɐˈxoɫ]
    Noun
    хохо́л • (xoxól) m inan or m anim (genitive хохла́, nominative plural хохлы́, genitive plural хохло́в, feminine хохлу́шка or хохля́чка, diminutive хохоло́к)

    (inanimate) (birds) crest, (human hair) topknot, tuft of hair
    Synonyms: чуб (čub), чупрун (čuprun), вихо́р (vixór), оселе́дец (oselédec)
    (animate, derogatory, ethnic slur, offensive) a Ukrainian, khokhol
    Synonyms: украи́нец (ukraínec), укр (ukr), укро́п (ukróp), салое́д (salojéd), малоро́сс (maloróss), малору́сс (malorúss)

    Wiktionar

    So one of the definitions is “crest” (of a bird).

  16. 16.

    zhena gogolia

    @Gin & Tonic: I’m sorry, I just had an auditory hallucination of her saying this last night, I just knew she would say it — so seeing it in a tweet today is very weird.

  21. 21.

    Sister Golden Bear

    On the hellsite there’s an interesting thread about the “real” goal of the Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries isn’t about fuel, rather it’s reducing nitrogen, ammonia and methanol feed stocks for Russian explosives and propellants for its artillery and missile production.

    I don’t enough about the poster’s credibility, nor chemistry to evaluate their claims,* but it seemed potentially plausible enough to see if someone more knowledgable could weigh in.

    *Also it doesn’t have to be either/or, it could be both targeting fuel refining as well as the byproducts mentioned.

  24. 24.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Sister Golden Bear: Telenko is a 6 January truther. You can pretty much ignore him. You’ll recall he tried to do tire tread analysis back at the beginning of the war until a furry who actually knew what she was talking about showed up and basically stomped all over him. I covered that in this update.

  26. 26.

    Jay

    @Sister Golden Bear:

    less than 1% of refining byproducts can be used in the production of explosives, and are mostly used as moderating agents to make the explosives less reactive.

    So, if you are seeking to reduce ruZZia’s production of solid fuel rocket motors and explosives, you are way off on your targeting.

    with sanctions, loss of arms sales, the ruZZian economy relies almost completely on refined fuel exports, (only China and Venezuela are taking ruZZian oil), with a minor portion of exports being (stolen) Ag products, (the EU will be closing that door soon), and timber.

  29. 29.

    Parfigliano

    Good thing we have shitheads counciling against giving Ukraine the weapons they want.  Putin might escalate.

  30. 30.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Jay: He was a “quality staff specialist” at the DOD for 20 years. I have no idea what that actually is or does, but that’s the extent of his nat-sec experience.

  33. 33.

    Nukular Biskits

    @Jay:

    Quality Assurance, which could mean anything from Manger to File Clerk.

    Adam may disagree with this, but “Quality Assurance” doesn’t mean what it used to mean, at least when it comes to some defense programs.

  35. 35.

    Westyny

    @zhena gogolia:  ? Well, I do think about them.  Are they confessing under torture to something they didn’t do? How did they get so far away?  With published license plates?  As I said, nothing believable comes from official Russian sources.  I sure wouldn’t want to be them, their victims, or anybody else in that benighted country.

  36. 36.

    Jay

    @Westyny:

    Are they confessing under torture to something they didn’t do?

    Probably.

    How did they get so far away?

    They were probably never even near Moscow, just give a car, a time to leave and a route to take.

    With published license plates?

    Because they were set up as patsies.

    Why were the armed security at The Crocus pulled?
    Why were the metal detectors turned off?
    Why were there no bag searches at the entrance, (SOP at Concerts).
    Why were the fire sprinklers and alarms turned off?
    How did a couple cans of gasoline blow the roof off and cause a massive fire?
    Why did it take an OMON “SWAT” Team an hour to reach the building when their station is 4 minutes away?

    More questions than answers.

  38. 38.

    Carlo Graziani

    Here is a historical rhyme: The 1999 alleged Chechen bombings of apartment blocks in Moscow, Volgodonsk, and Buynaksk, that were the casus belli for the Second Chechen War, which re-established Russian control over Chechnya. Which is now generalky understood to have been a Putin-approved false-flag operation.

  39. 39.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Carlo Graziani: And it was done in order to push him from obscurity into the Yeltsin appointed PM who brought security and thereby vaulted him over the front runner – prior to the bombings – for the presidency to succeed Yeltsin. Here’s all the details at this link.

  40. 40.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Adam L Silverman: Thanks, I hadn’t seen Galeev’s summary.

    What I still don’t get is the ISIS involvement. It doesn’t meet the cui bono motive standard. Where is the benefit, even to a chaos beneficiary like Isis-K, in such an operationally complicated and expensive action, where agents had zero chance of ultimate escape? What possible political accomplishment would the group expect to derive from this act?

    No, that’s all just deep stupid. This has to be an FSB op. ISIS makes no sense.

  42. 42.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    IS has a “hard on for ruZZia”

    • Chechnia I
    • Chechnia II
    • Dagestan
    • Ingushetia
    • Syria
    • Wagner Group
    • The AfriKKa Corps
    • general treatment of Minority Muslims in ruZZia

    IS has claimed it with bodycam/go pro footage released from the shooters.

    My current working theory is that between US Intel, and maybe their own, the ruZZian’s knew the where and when, and stripped out the security, rigged the building for max casualties, let the attack go forward, arranged some patsies and fake “evidence” pointing to Ukraine.

  43. 43.

    wjca

    @Carlo Graziani: This has to be an FSB op. ISIS makes no sense.

    But in that case, what is ISIS’ motivation for claiming “credit” for the attack?  And quickly enough to suggest they knew it was coming.  Unless you want to posit that FSB bribed ISIS to do it….

  44. 44.

    Carlo Graziani

    @wjca: No idea. But in this sort of situation, I take cui bono as a reliable guide. Unless you assume the leadership of ISIS is mentally ill (which I do not), why on Earth would they imagine some political benefit derivable from killing randos in Moscow? How does this augment their political authority in Syria or Iraq? Who, among the folks that they would like to impress, does this action, in fact, impress?

    This is bullshit. I don’t know what the sensible narrative is that explains this despicable act. But I can tell when I am being bullshitted. That is what is happening now.

  46. 46.

    Carlo Graziani

    The point that I was raising the historical analog with the 1999 bombings is that those acted as political justifications for Russian aggressions. So, assuming that Putin is reviving a Greatest Hits tactic from his early career, what is the objective now? He doesn’t need a war justification. Is he looking for justification to exit the escalation limits imposed by the US in 2022—to wit, no nuclear use, or NATO intervenes?

    Assume this was a Russian false-flag op. What is the next move?

  47. 47.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    they have no “authority” in Iraq,

    they have a tiny series of “footprints” and cells remaining in Syria, in the grey zones between the Syrian/ruZZian/IRG forces, and the Turkish/Syrian Forces/ the Free Syrian/Kurdish/US Forces. When they go against the Syruan/ruZZian/IRG forces, they get the full Grozny experience of the rubble getting bounced.

    In Afghanistan, they have a few cells, but their “footprint”, is in Pakistani Taliban controlled areas.

    Where they are “big” is in the Sahel and parts of Africa. When it was Western Advisors, troops and OAS peacekeepers leading the fight, it wasn’t bad for them. Coup’s however have pushed those groups out and Wagner/AfriKKa Korps, now lead the fight, and have brought the Grozny Experience to Africa. They rely on local control, the local economy and some local support to survive. That’s difficult when Wagner/AfriKKa Korps seizes all the local resources and Grozny’s the local populations.

    And there are no shortage of “radicalized” Muslims in ruZZia, plus large Chechen, Dagestani and Inguish mafia’s in Moscow and Saint Petersburg, many are former Muj.

  48. 48.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    the “move” was to rally domestic support. None of the ruZZian polling stations were unscathed by either vandalism, protests or protest votes, (noon),

    He’s losing support for his SMO, now Officially Called a War*,

    *as a Russian, prior to yesterday, you would have gotten 6 months in jail and a 15,000 rouble fine for calling the SMO a War.

  49. 49.

    wjca

    @Carlo Graziani: why on Earth would they imagine some political benefit derivable from killing randos in Moscow? How does this augment their political authority in Syria or Iraq? Who, among the folks that they would like to impress, does this action, in fact, impress?

    I’m not an expert on the ins and outs of the various battles in the Middle East, specifically Syria.  But I seem to recall that Russia has been actively mucking about there.  If so, I could see ISIS having been impacted, and wanting to send Putin a nessage.  Something along the lines of “If you are going to come and kill our people here, be aware that we can come kill your people there.”

    In short, it may not be about impressing anyone in the areas where they are active, or building their political clout directly.  But rather about striking back at someone who has been hitting them.

    EDT  i see Jay makes a similar case for the Sahel.

  51. 51.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: I don’t see any western or Ukrainian analysts asserting that the Moscow attack is a Putin false flag. The consensus appears to be incompetence & distraction on the part of Russian internal security services, & Putin is merely trying to cover up & misdirect from the colossal failure by pointing to Ukraine. I think Adam is already stretching it by suggesting that Putin might have decided to allow the ISIS-K attack to go through precisely to blame Ukraine, although it is certainly conceivable.

    ISIS-K, just alike the IS’ other franchises, are agents of chaos, & seek to establish a new Caliphate from the ruins. They have targeted the Taliban, Pakistan, Iran. I am sure they would target the PRC, India & the US if they could.

  52. 52.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    I have never gone to any concert, where there was only ticket checks and nobody searched me.

    Yeah, they were looking for drugs, booze, fruit soaked in booze, and snacks that cut into the commission stand earnings, not AK’s, pistols and Semtex bombs,

    so, why no Security at the venue?

    It was always there before that one night.

  53. 53.

    Jay

    BTW, it’s reported that an airbase tank farm, a Naval Command Center and 2 Landing Ships were destroyed in Crimea over night by Stormshadow’s.

  54. 54.

    Searcher

    So Russia has posted multiple torture videos of cutting off ears?

    Do they understand how fucked up that is?  Do they understand how that makes them look to the entire rest of the globe?

  56. 56.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Searcher: & any information gained under such torture are unreliable, anyway. Of course, the Russian internal security services are not looking for reliable information at this point.

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