As I start tonight’s post, 6:17 PM EDT, only Kharkiv is under air raid alert and it has been under attack for the past two hours.
And Israel, Israel is under air raid alert too.
I’m going to keep the focus tonight on Ukraine, because, while Iran is not blameless in its own and its proxies actions against Israel, quite frankly, the Israelis, and specifically Bibi, have done this to themselves with their attack on the Quds Force commander in Damascus. I don’t want anyone else in Israel, the West Bank, or Gaza to get hurt, and there is a real risk of that when debris comes down as Iran has launched several hundred drones and an unknown number of cruise missiles. These are expected to target Israeli military facilities in the Golan and Negev in the early morning hours, not Israeli civilians and civilian infrastructure. This is the same aerial bombardment strategy of using drones to overwhelm air defense so the missiles can get through that we are used to seeing the Russians use against the Ukrainians.
We are where we are because, as Avraham Shalom, the head of the Shin Bet in the early to mid 80s, stated in regard to Israeli leadership in The Gatekeepers documentary: ayn strategik, raq taktik. No strategy, only tactics. I will, however, start with a couple of items pertaining to what is going on between Israel and Iran.
First, a more recent former head of Shin Bet:
Former Head of Shin Bet Nadav Argaman states it plain and simple @Uvda_tweet: “if Netanyahu isn’t removed from office, Israel is doomed” #NetanyahuMustGoHomeNow #BringThemAllHomeNOW (credit:@UnxeptableD) pic.twitter.com/poj2CNhmku
— Dan Arbell (@DanArbell) April 13, 2024
And two assessments from Eran Etzion, the former deputy director of Israel’s equivalent to the US National Security Council.
⭕️Crucial points from Eran Etzion, former deputy head of the National Security Council in the Israeli Prime Minister's office:
🛑The elimination of the Iranian general in Damascus was one of two things – either severe strategic negligence that needs to be investigated, or a… https://t.co/kciMmCpvL6
— Sina Toossi (@SinaToossi) April 13, 2024
⭕️Crucial points from Eran Etzion, former deputy head of the National Security Council in the Israeli Prime Minister’s office:
🛑The elimination of the Iranian general in Damascus was one of two things – either severe strategic negligence that needs to be investigated, or a deliberate attempt to draw Iran into the conflict, in absolute contradiction to the demands of the USA & its interests. Anyone involved in this decision needs to provide explanations.
🛑Israel is deep in the most severe crisis in its history, with broken national decision-making mechanisms, led by a man who has lost his judgment and acts based on foreign considerations, & without control and oversight mechanisms over the executive authority.
🛑In my cautious estimate, what is actually happening is coordination between the USA and Iran and containment of the Iranian response. If the coordination succeeds, the USA will prevent an Israeli response. And if the coordination fails, the USA will be in a difficult dilemma.
_
Eran Etzion, former deputy head of the National Security Council in the Israeli Prime Minister's office:
"At this stage, it is too early to assess what exactly Iran is trying to achieve with its massive and unprecedented retaliatory operation against Israel.
However, it seems… https://t.co/LuPlSph8lS
— Sina Toossi (@SinaToossi) April 13, 2024
Eran Etzion, former deputy head of the National Security Council in the Israeli Prime Minister’s office:
“At this stage, it is too early to assess what exactly Iran is trying to achieve with its massive and unprecedented retaliatory operation against Israel.
However, it seems that Iran does not intend to enter into a full-scale war. This is also clearly evident from the wording of the American response. Both countries are trying to contain the incident. Arab states are also walking a tightrope. They will intercept Iranian armaments that enter their territory and will not approve the passage of Israeli aircraft.
Tomorrow morning, when we will probably be after the Iranian attack, a damage assessment will be conducted. As long as the damages are limited (and we are not entering a more precise resolution at the moment), the USA will likely demand Israel not to respond, or to respond in a very limited way.
And so it is right that Israel should act. The main reason is the fact that Israel does not have a functioning government, led by a person who is unfit, and that the top ranks of the IDF are tainted by the terrible failure of 10/7.
This government must not drag Israel into a regional war, and we are already a step from there. In hopes that the event can be closed quickly, we must return to the negotiating table with Hamas, quickly agree on a hostage deal in exchange for a ceasefire, and go to snap elections.
Only a competent government, with new military leadership, will be worthy of the trust of the citizens of Israel, and will be able to start planning and implementing a comprehensive strategy against regional threats.
This will be done in full and close coordination with the USA, and with the relevant regional countries.”
Iran’s official statement:
Conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense, Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli…
— Permanent Mission of I.R.Iran to UN, NY (@Iran_UN) April 13, 2024
Bibi is hold up in a built to spec nuclear bunker under the home of an Israeli-American billionaire in Jerusalem where he and his wife Sara have been hiding from the protestors every night.
Jerusalem: Protest gathers outside home of US duty free billionaire Simon Falic, where the Netanyahous are hunkering down in his private reinforced bomb shelter. (For real)
(Orna Kupferman) pic.twitter.com/nqfEsxM4k1— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) April 13, 2024
Says it all really.
Bibi will, of course, do the stupidest thing possible in response because he needs to expand his war. The war against Hamas in Gaza is a failure. Israel has not achieved a single one of its strategic objectives because it never actually developed a theater campaign plan to do so. Just a tactical response. On the 8th of October 2023, Israel’s war cabinet voted to go to war with Hezbullah in Lebanon. President Biden put a stop to that, though Israel has been trading missile strikes both with Hezbullah in Lebanon and with other Iranian proxies in Syria. Those tit for tat strikes have led Israelis living in the north to flee. At the same time the extremist ultra-nationalist and ultra-devout settlers in the West Bank are fighting their own low intensity war against the Palestinians there. They are being egged on by convicted terrorist and Minister of National Security ben-Gvir and Minister of the Treasury Smotrich. Bibi needs a wider regional war even though he can’t even win the ones he’s currently waging.
Again, I DO NOT want to see any innocent Israelis, Palestinians in Gaza or the West Bank, or even Iranians who live under their theocratic tyrants, injured as a result of this strategic stupidity. However, as long as Bibi and his extremist coalition are in charge, Israel needs to be treated by the US as a hostile foreign power. It won’t be, but it should be.
Iran’s retaliatory strike on Israel will also negatively affect Ukraine:
Iran's attack on Israel has another unforeseen consequence: Russia's attacks on Ukraine will mostly go unnoticed, essentially giving Russia a free hand for further assaults on Ukrainian infrastructure. https://t.co/ee9l4gxHd9
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 13, 2024
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. It is a bit of good news. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Germany Will Provide Us With Another Patriot System, And We Are Working on an Additional IRIS-T System — Address of the President of Ukraine
13 April 2024 – 20:47
I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!
Today we have a very good result of our international work: Germany will provide us with an additional Patriot system — Chancellor Scholz and I agreed on this today. We are also working with Germany on an additional IRIS-T system, which is also a strong air defence system, and on missiles for our existing air defence systems. Germany’s leadership is truly felt, and thanks to this leadership, we will be able to save thousands of lives and give Ukraine more protection from Russian terror.
Of course, today we also talked with the Chancellor about our joint international events — we are preparing for the Ukraine Recovery Conference, which will soon be held in Germany. And together we will do everything to make the Global Peace Summit – the first, inaugural summit to be held in June – a real success. This also requires the leadership of partners, and I am grateful to everyone who helps. Olaf, Mr. Chancellor, thank you again for the air defence!
We will continue to work with all partners who can also help. This week alone, I have already had conversations and meetings with the presidents of Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Romania, Poland, Hungary, Switzerland, and Latvia. A new bilateral security agreement was signed with Latvia. I also spoke with the prime ministers of the Netherlands, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland. Today I had a conversation with the Chancellor of Germany. We will do everything to ensure the results in the coming weeks as well. In every conversation, at every meeting, air defence and the frontline are the main subjects. We are doing everything to have more capabilities for our Defence Forces and the defence-industrial complex.
Each week also brings new contracts for joint production of weapons. We are also working to finance more of our production right here in Ukraine. Ukraine’s potential to produce weapons, in particular, FPVs, is quite high. And we agree with our partners on joint steps to finance this work for the sake of our common strength — the whole of Europe, and all those who are threatened by Russian terror.
Today it is important to honour all our people who work for the sake of Ukrainian strength. This day is a professional holiday for the Ukrainian defence industry. Today I granted state awards to people who are actively developing this industry of ours. Most of them cannot be talked about openly now, and the reasons are clear. But this does not diminish our gratitude to them.
I am proud of every enterprise that produces weapons for Ukraine. We are all rightly proud of every result of Ukrainian weapons — our drones, which can reach more and more distant targets — and we are proud of the results of our missiles. All the production of shells and artillery is fundamentally important for Ukraine. Some production facilities that we haven’t had since independence are already yielding results. And despite all the difficulties, five hundred companies are currently operating in our defence industry, most of them are private initiatives. Ukrainian character, our entrepreneurs show themselves from the best side. I am grateful to everyone. I am grateful to all of our 300,000 people who create Ukrainian weapons! Thanks to everyone who helps!
Today, as always, I was also in touch with the military officials, with the Minister of Defence. The situation at the frontline, in some directions, is quite difficult. And everyone who is now showing their resilience, everyone who defends our positions is doing a tremendous job. I am grateful to every soldier and commander!
We are working with partners, particularly in the United States, to strengthen our actions. Glory to everyone who prevents Russian terrorists from achieving their goals. Glory to all who really protect life.
Glory to Ukraine!
+1 Patriot air defense system to Ukraine from Germany, as well as additional air defense missiles for existing systems.
We are grateful to our German partners for an important decision to strengthen Ukraine's air defense.
Modern air defense systems in Ukraine=saved lives of…— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 13, 2024
+1 Patriot air defense system to Ukraine from Germany, as well as additional air defense missiles for existing systems.
We are grateful to our German partners for an important decision to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense.
Modern air defense systems in Ukraine=saved lives of Ukrainians.
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪
@BMVg_Bundeswehr
European countries would face millions of new Ukrainian refugees next winter if russia is allowed now to destroy our energy grid fully and make our cities unlivable. Would that be cheaper than sending us now air defenses which they don't use? https://t.co/6RhZhPVaAC
— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) April 13, 2024
The reason:
A Ukrainian Defender was passing by his native area. His 90 year old grandma cannot see but she recognized her grandson by his beard.
📹: volod_kr/TikTok pic.twitter.com/AwcxRz417N
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 13, 2024
This is cool:
Creativity wins wars.
📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/fQ8a1fywoi
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 13, 2024
General Syrskyi's update on the eastern front: The situation on the Eastern Front has significantly worsened in recent days. This is primarily due to the significant intensification of the enemy's offensive actions after the presidential elections in the Russian Federation.
The… pic.twitter.com/0QKsRksSMf
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) April 13, 2024
General Syrskyi’s update on the eastern front: The situation on the Eastern Front has significantly worsened in recent days. This is primarily due to the significant intensification of the enemy’s offensive actions after the presidential elections in the Russian Federation.
The enemy is actively attacking our positions in the Lyman, Bakhmut directions with assault groups with the support of armored vehicles. In the Pokrovsk direction, he is trying to break through our defenses using dozens of tanks and BMPs.
This is facilitated by warm, dry weather, which has made most of the open areas of the terrain accessible to tanks. Despite significant losses, the enemy is increasing its efforts by using new units on armored vehicles, due to which he periodically achieves tactical success.
Therefore, the first day of my work in the area of the operation is dedicated to this direction and to taking all the necessary measures to stabilize the situation, increase the effectiveness of our troops’ actions, and inflict maximum losses on enemy units.
Based on conclusions regarding the nature of the enemy’s actions, decisions were made aimed at strengthening the most problematic areas of the defense by means of EW and air defense. Also, stocks of drones of all types, anti-tank missiles were replenished, additional reserves of forces and means were moved.
The question of achieving technical superiority over the enemy in high-tech weapons arose again.
Only this will give us the opportunity to defeat the larger enemy and create conditions for overtaking the strategic initiative.
The second serious problem is to improve the quality of training of military personnel, primarily infantry units, so that they can make maximum use of all the capabilities of military equipment and Western weapons.First of all, the solution of this task depends on the command of the Ground Forces, which has returned in full from the area of hostilities.
The results of my work will be taken into account in the training plans of the troops and governing bodies.
Of course, I honored the best warriors with awards and valuable gifts.
In personal communication with our servicemen, they discussed the current situation, as well as ways to solve all problematic issues. We are aware of the real scale and degree of threat from the enemy and are ready to take adequate and effective actions.https://t.me/osirskiy/650
The Financial Times has more details:
Ukraine’s top commander warned that his outmanned and outgunned army is struggling to halt a multipronged and intensifying Russian offensive, as Kyiv pleads with western partners for more air defences and a critical military aid package remains stalled in the US Congress.
“The situation on the eastern front has significantly worsened in recent days,” Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky wrote on Telegram during a visit to the eastern Donetsk region on Saturday.
He said a “significant intensification of the enemy’s offensive actions” along the 1,000km southeastern frontline was a direct result of Russian President Vladimir Putin becoming emboldened following his recent re-election.
Ukrainian and western officials have told the Financial Times that Russia may be gearing up for a large-scale attack in late spring or summer in hopes of capturing more of the regions of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia. The Kremlin partly occupies these areas, which Putin illegally claimed to have annexed in September 2022.
Officials in Kyiv are also concerned that Moscow might be planning an assault on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city in the north-east. It is mobilising hundreds of thousands of forces and pummelling the city with rockets in preparation.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy this week warned of his country’s diminishing air defence capabilities after massive Russian missile and drones strikes hit Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Ukrainian officials have asked western partners for more Patriot and SAMP/T air defence systems and munitions but were rebuffed.
“The enemy is actively attacking our positions in the Lyman [and] Bakhmut directions with assault groups and the support of armoured vehicles,” Syrsky said, referring to strategically important areas of eastern Ukraine. “In the Pokrovsk direction, it is trying to break through our defences using dozens of tanks and [infantry fighting vehicles].”
Syrsky said the “warm, dry weather, which has made most of the open areas of the terrain accessible to tanks” has aided Russia’s advance.
Russia’s main effort is focused around the mining city of Chasiv Yar, which sits atop a hill just 15km west of Bakhmut, the city destroyed and occupied by Russian soldiers and Wagner mercenaries nearly a year ago after a grinding 11-month fight.
Videos shared on Telegram by Russian military bloggers showed “glide bombs” and heavy artillery pounding Ukrainian positions and flattening apartment buildings in Chasiv Yar.
“This will likely be an important battle. Chasiv Yar is located on defensible high ground,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia programme. “If Russia takes the city, they could potentially increase the rate of advance deeper into Donetsk [region] as part of an expected summer offensive.”
Yuriy Fedorenko, commander of the “Achilles” drone battalion, told the Financial Times last week that Ukrainian troops were outgunned by at least five artillery shells to one but had no choice except to fight.
Speaking near Chasiv Yar, he said losing the town would allow Russian troops “fire control” of the nearby strategic cities of Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk and give them a foothold from which they could launch attacks.
Deep State, a Ukrainian analytical group that monitors the battlefield, said on Saturday that Russian troops had reached a canal that separates Chasiv Yar’s eastern and western districts but had not yet crossed it.
The group suggested that a fierce battle for the city loomed, writing that “the coming weeks will bring a lot of unpleasant and difficult news”.
“The enemy is gathering reserves for the Battle of Chasiv Yar,” said Deep State, which is close to Ukraine’s defence ministry.
Lee said that “immediate increased deliveries of ammunition could prove critical” for Ukrainian forces.
Syrsky said he was taking “all the necessary measures” to stabilise the situation and to “increase the effectiveness of our troops’ actions, and inflict maximum losses on enemy units”.
“Despite significant losses the enemy is increasing its efforts by using new units on armoured vehicles, thanks to which it periodically achieves tactical success,” he said.
Syrsky said he had ordered “the most problematic areas of the defence” to be strengthened with air defence and electronic warfare systems.
“Also, stocks of drones of all types, anti-tank missiles were replenished, additional reserves of forces and means were moved,” he said.
The only way to defeat Russia’s larger and more powerful army and create conditions for seizing the strategic initiative on the battlefield is to achieve technical superiority with “high-tech weapons”, Syrsky said. Those, he suggested, should come from western partners.
Even then, he admitted, Ukraine will still face the challenges of mobilising enough troops for the fight and providing them with sufficient training.
“The second serious problem is to improve the quality of training of military personnel, primarily infantry units, so that they can make maximum use of all the capabilities of military equipment and western weapons,” Syrsky said.
There is a Hebrew phrase that emerged in the Yishuv, the Jewish settlement in mandatory Palestine, during the fight for what would become Israeli independence: Zchor Babi Yar, which translates as remember Babin Yar. There was even a chapter of the Jewish fraternal youth group, AZA, named Zchor Babi Yar. I expect we will eventually, unfortunately, get a Ukrainian phrase that translates to remember Chasiv Yar.
This is a lesson in the importance of quick and decisive military support.
If Ukraine had been given everything it needed to defeat the russians early on, then Iran would have calculated that supporting russia with drones and missiles was pointless.
Instead, western inaction…
— Saint Javelin (@saintjavelin) April 13, 2024
This is a lesson in the importance of quick and decisive military support.
If Ukraine had been given everything it needed to defeat the russians early on, then Iran would have calculated that supporting russia with drones and missiles was pointless.
Instead, western inaction empowered the iranians, the chinese, the russians and others.
Now this is spiraling out of control because of these stupid redlines.
Easy solution.
Peace Through Superior Firepower.
Kharkiv:
Shahed drones reportedly detected in the suburbs of Kharkiv! Kharkiv needs more weapons to defend its skies against rusiian missiles and drones!
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 13, 2024
Simultaneously, Kharkiv Oblast is under russian missile attack!
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 13, 2024
Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:
Serebeyansky Forest, the front line of Luhansk Oblast in the sunrise.
The Ardennes of the 21st century.
📸 By Ukraine’s National Guards officer
Denys Zeleny. pic.twitter.com/V0zHY7HPG8— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 13, 2024
Major fire, emergency services involved after a successful missile strike in Luhansk by Ukrainian defence forces. pic.twitter.com/Qy1NPHLGgs
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) April 13, 2024
/2. Additional videos of Luhansk strikes pic.twitter.com/3i9X4DRvAM
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 13, 2024
/4. Videos of the moment of the strike where missiles are visible. Based on the shape of the missile the strike was most likely carried out by Storm Shadow/SCALP. pic.twitter.com/TaqbMWHWwL
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 13, 2024
Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:
Ukrainian steel birds are heading to a new combat mission in Donetsk region.
📹: Army Aviation pic.twitter.com/4S8115UjRV
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 13, 2024
Lord, guard and guide the ones who fly
Through the great spaces in the sky.
Be with them always in the air,
In darkening storms or sunlight fair.
/2. BUK was destroyed 26km from the frontline. (47.511632, 37.083317) https://t.co/irp1tJ5tvK pic.twitter.com/UiVJoxJr8O
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 13, 2024
Ochretyne, Avdiivka front:
Ochretyne, a town not far away from Avdiivka.
Russians have destroyed a residential building with a gliding bomb. pic.twitter.com/CMd4VMie6W— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 13, 2024
Chernihiv Oblast:
Russians shot a civilian car in Chernihiv region, the National Police reported.
This morning, the car of a resident of Novhorod-Severskyi came under attack by Russians. The car burst into flames and the man born in 1990 was mortally wounded.
According to the head of the… pic.twitter.com/mYkGPd5vl9
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 13, 2024
Russians shot a civilian car in Chernihiv region, the National Police reported.
This morning, the car of a resident of Novhorod-Severskyi came under attack by Russians. The car burst into flames and the man born in 1990 was mortally wounded.
According to the head of the regional military administration, Viacheslav Chaus, the man was carrying food to local residents.
That’s enough for tonight.
I may be back later with an Israel-Iran war update depending on how things go.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight, so here’s some adjacent material.
I love you I hate you I love you pic.twitter.com/fifM2on3Ji
— Eugene Kibets (@eugenehmg) April 3, 2024
Open thread!
Anonymous At Work
Adam,
Looking for a few charities in Ukraine to support and direct others to. Got a list or suggestions, besides BJ’s ActBlue?
Baud
Thanks again for all your hard work, Adam.
Chris
Apologies if this was in one of your posts that I missed earlier this year, but I have an Iran question:
A friend of mine discussing the Iran/Israel dust up today mentioned something I had never heard previously, that it was determined in the last few months that Iran now had enough enriched uranium to build several nuclear bombs if it should so choose. Some googling did turn up a few articles from U.S. and Israeli sources earlier this year saying that. As far as you know is this accurate?
Adam L Silverman
@Anonymous At Work: United24.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: You’re most welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Chris: Yes, it is estimated that Iran is close to or has reached the bust out stage, more formally known as the Japan stage. Essentially they have both the technology and the capability to quickly assemble nuclear weapons should they decide they need to.
Kristine
Adam, I want to add to everyone else’s thanks for the discussions here (and on BJ as a whole). It’s a refuge from the shitshow that is social media at times like these.
This is one of my primary news sites. I don’t have to worry about faked graphics and other infestations. The odd troll is a small price to pay.
Adam L Silverman
@Kristine: Thank you for the kind words. You are most welcome.
YY_Sima Qian
F*ck! What news to wake up to!
In other news, Israeli police killed a Palestinian employee of USAID (of some 2 decades), following a scuffle. Shot him 8 or 9 times in broad daylight.
Incredible that Iran seems to be behaving a bit more rationally (albeit w/ typical cynicism & brutality) & strategically than Israel, if the retaliation is really mostly aimed at IDF facilities. The IRGC also seized an Israeli owned cargo ship traveling from India to the UAE. Apparently Israeli shipping companies have been using thr land route through the Gulf State to circumvent the Red Sea.
SecState Blinken was on the phones w/ global counterparts asking them to sway Iran away from an escalatory retaliation. They may very well have done so, but the obvious rejoinder would be that the US 1st needs to dissuade Israel from escalatory strikes against diplomatic missions.
Then again, Israel has been telegraphing for months that they intend to invade Southern Lebanon to cut down the Hezbollah threat. The relative draw down in Gaza a couple of months ago was in service of this shift, & so are the requests for emergency US arms & munitions. So on the one hand the Biden Administration is trying to restrain Israel from escalating to a regional war, & on the other is giving Isrwel all the arms it wants to precipitate such a regional war.
Chris
@Adam L Silverman:
Thanks.
Predictable next question, then – do you think they’re getting to the point where they might feel the need to actually build them with all the stuff going on now? Or are we still some ways from that?
peter
Adam, let me echo what others have said. Your careful and objective analysis of what’s going on in Ukraine has been essential for me since the war began. So much more nourishing that the junk provided by the media. Kudos to you!
JPL
omg I love your updates and although I don’t comment here often, I read them.
Chris
@YY_Sima Qian:
The sense I’ve always gotten in twenty odd years of following this off and on is that the Iranian regime is a rational actor. This in no way means “good guys,” but small-C conservatives who’d like to keep their thrones and aren’t going to endanger it by starting shit they can’t finish. Basically, Brezhnev era Russians rather than Putin era Russians.
Naturally there’s no guarantee of rationality lasting forever, which is one reason I’m asking Adam the questions I did…
Martin
I thought it was pretty obvious a tactic by Israel to maintain an external threat that would make it harder for the US to cut off their military aid. Of course they brought it on themselves, and is there any scenario where US lawmakers (including Democrats) wouldn’t reward them for that, simply because it’s next to impossible to explain that dynamic to the public?
Adam L Silverman
@Chris: I don’t know.
Adam L Silverman
@peter: You are also most welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@JPL: Thank you. You are quite welcome.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Just want to add my thanks to the chorus, too! While my selfish wish is that you might be able to provide coverage on both conflict, but I certainly understand your bandwidth constraints. & covering the ME must be even more frustrating & maddening than Ukraine. At least Ukraine does not engage in self-harm or self-sabotage.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: You’re most welcome.
Given it will be hours until we actually no for sure what has been targeted, I’ll likely do an update in the AM when I get up.
Freemark
@Chris:
If Reagan hadn’t been a traitor Iran probably would be much less of a threat now.
Also agree Iran has been one of the more ‘rational’ governments in the Middle-East. Much of the shit we hold against them is legitimate, rational responses to what we, the Israelis, and Saudis have done.
Nukular Biskits
I know this wasn’t the point of your post tonight, but I’m sick and fucking tired of my Republican congressional delegation trying to gaslight me and my fellow constituents with their “STAND BY ISRAEL!!!111!!!!” demands.
1 bazillion % agree here.
sab
@Adam L Silverman: Thank you in advance for your update.
Nukular Biskits
I’m also sick & tired of my congressional delegation pretending that Russian aggression in/against Ukraine isn’t and will never be a problem for the US.
Dammit.
Thanks, Adam. Sorry this isn’t as eloquent as it should be.
cain
Thanks for this great post. We are entering what seems like a regional war with Israel not planning on backing down. I think they will also invade south Lebanon and force us to support it all.
Rocks
As regards Israel and Ukraine, can you imagine how screwed we would be if Trump was President instead of Biden? I realize Trump is the defacto House majority leader, and is doing everything he can to make us a vassal state to Putin, but thank God he’s not in charge and Biden is.
YY_Sima Qian
When the JPCOA re-negotiations fell apart in 2021, before an ultra-hardliner was elected President of Iran, the Biden Administration was rounded criticized for trying to coerce more concessions from Iran even though it was the Trump Administration that unilaterally withdrew from the deal when Iran was still compliant. It seems the Administration thought they can keep muddling along w/ Iran w/o things dramatically deteriorating, kind of like how it thought the Palestinian issue could be shelved indefinitely in the interest of advancing normalization between Israel & the Sunni Arab states. The Biden Administration is certainly not solely responsible for the course of events, since Iran, Israel (& the EU, & Russia, & the PRC) all have agency, but it is & should be accountable for its actions & miscalculations.
The nuclear NK is another time bomb that the Biden Administration has made a conscious decision to largely ignore, because no resolution seems conceivable. Yes, NK, Russia, the PRC, SK (w/ the current reactionary right wing government) & Japan all have agency & all have contributed to the current dangerous state of affairs, so it is not solely on the US.
The critique from Left Wing international relations scholars (such as Van Jackson) toward the Biden team has been that the latter is incapable of conceptualizing let alone addressing (& indeed often exacerbating) the sources of global instability (stalling economic development, interests of global capital owners prioritized, rising economic nationalism, securitization of everything, security dilemmas abound), even while being competent crisis managers, as they are demonstrating yet again right now. So the Biden Administration has been forced to constantly respond (competently) to unforeseen (to the Administration) crises that repeatedly upend its geopolitical plans. & it is likely to continue in its 2nd term, as we all fervently hope there is one.
Suzanne
@cain: Israel can go it alone then. It makes me sick to think about Americans’ tax dollars underwriting Bibi Netanyahu’s monstrosity.
JPL
@Suzanne: sam
I’m also sickened because Bibi knows that his actions can hurt Biden.
sab
@YY_Sima Qian: I agree with your skepticism about Biden’s international team but our alternative is Putinist chaos agents.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Look forward to it.
Adam L Silverman
@JPL: Bibi is counting on it.
Harrison Wesley
Thank you so much, Adam. This is a task I’m sure brings you no joy. If anything, I have a gloomier view of the world than you – I think Planet Earth goes up in a nuclear fireball before 2025.
YY_Sima Qian
@sab: That is why I fervently hope for a 2nd Biden term, despite my criticisms. Under Trump, the Sino-US relationship will descend into a full blown Cold War, no holds barred trade/tech war, & an unacceptably high risk of hot war, not to mention Chinese & Chinese Americans (as well as others of E. Asian descent) targeted as 5th columnists by the reactionaries in the US. Trump himself is too much of a coward to seek out a hot war w/ the PRC, but plenty among his coterie eagerly seek such a war, & Trump has proven easy to manipulate.
Part of my immense frustration w/ Biden is that he & his team have done little (& what little they have done has been rather late) to arrest the descend, & if anything have exacerbated the trend, all of which favor the GOP in US domestic politics. Yes, Xi & the CPC leadership is equally culpable here (w/ the incessant hacking, intimidation of critical overseas Chinese voices, increasing domestic repression). At the end of the day, though, I don’t think liberal democracy in American will survive a new Cold War w/ the PRC, not w/ the GOP being what it is today, & not w/ the Dems constantly running scared of being outflanked on the anti-PRC front.
sab
@YY_Sima Qian: I have loyal American family members with close family ties to China and this whole frostiness in relations by both sides is distressing. Leaders on both sides are encouraging it, but a lot of people and families down the food chain will be hurt, and I don’t see the positive side of stoking the tension
ETA Maybe short term positive electoral gain, but nothing good for either country longer term.
wjca
I have a sneaking suspicion that, if they do decide to invade Lebanon, they will make the shocking discovery that the expected support is not forthcoming. That we have not been forced after all. Because, I think, Biden is about out of (his enormous) patience with Bibi. And an invasion would be the last straw.
But then, I’m a compulsive optimist.
YY_Sima Qian
@sab: It is the people who straddle the two sides who have the worse of it. To the Chinese nationalists, we are race traitors for having sought US citizenship. To the US nativists, we are never truly American.
If there ever is a hot war between the US & the PRC, there is a good chance I will be interned in the PRC because of my US citizenship, & my parents will be interned in the US because of their Chinese ethnicity.
Adam L Silverman
@cain: @wjca: They’ve exhausted themselves in Gaza and been unable to even consolidate tactical gains in doing so. This is a reserve military. Almost all of its strength is in the reserves. And they’ve been active and fighting since October. Which is why they’ve both largely pulled out of Gaza and we’re seeing lots of mistakes. The IDF is not built for a prolonged campaign. Bibi, Gallant, and Gantz may want to clear Hezbullah out of Lebanon and Iran’s proxies and the IRGC out of Syria, but they don’t have the Schlitz left to do it. Right now the IDF is exhausted. If they actally do expand they’ll break it.
Suzanne
@Adam L Silverman: Do you think the IDF will move forward with invading Rafah in the near-term?
sab
@YY_Sima Qian: And all these straddlers are trying to do is make the world a more peaceful tolerant place.
YY_Sima Qian
@sab: Most of us, anyway. There are those who are in thrall of the Falun Gong or Miles Guo who definitely want to burn it all down.
japa21
@YY_Sima Qian: Every society has some of those.
Adam L Silverman
The Times of Israel is reporting that the IDF has lifted the shelter near a safe room order.
Nukular Biskits
@Adam L Silverman:
I know international politics isn’t necessarily your forte, but you are well-versed, knowledgeable and experienced and that feeds directly into your area of expertise.
With that set up, what do you think the chances are we’ll see a seismic shift in the Israeli government within the next 6 months?
sab
@YY_Sima Qian: My dad’s nurse’s aide was all enthusiastic about a Chinese dance troupe coming to Cleveland and she couldn’t understand why my sister was so extremely unenthustiastic. Until I explained that they were Falun Gong financed and what Falun Gong was all about. Even cultural exchange can be complicated.
ETA Although I don’t know how cultural exchangey Falun Gong is. They seem pretty much US based whackjobs.
Adam L Silverman
@Suzanne: I’m not sure they have the resources. Bibi is going to Bibi, but at the end of the day, if you’ve got exhausted soldiers, then you don’t have anything to work with.
Adam L Silverman
@Nukular Biskits: Israel is not required by law to hold elections until October 2026. Bibi’s main goal is to survive and remain in power. His extremist coalition partners main goal is to stay in power so they can convert Israel into a Jewish theocratic herrenvolk, fully occupy the West Bank, and capitalize on the war with Hamas to reoccupy Gaza. Bibi’s war cabinet partners – Gallant and Ganz – wish to clean Hezbullah out of Lebanon and the Iranian proxies out of Syria. Ganz wants to be PM. The Israelis, themselves, are exhausted, angry, and very divided on what should happen and when an election should take place. Though the majority want the Palestinians in Gaza to suffer as payback for 7 OCT.
None of that is sustainable. But the one thing I do know is that Bibi’s greatest skill is surviving and either staying in power or returning to power.
sab
@Adam L Silverman: That’s not good, Bibi trying to broaden the war to stay in power when he hasn’t even got the resources for smaller war he has already involved his country in.
These things end badly for the leader who led down that path, but also for the country that followed them.
Andrya
@Adam L Silverman:
I never, ever, thought I’d say this, and I never would have voted for him in a million years, but the Israeli response to 10/7 made me think a bit more kindly of George W Bush. He stole the 2000 election, and the Iraq war was totally wrong, but he did try to tamp down this kind of reaction- he did try to redirect American rage after 9/11 towards Al Qaeda specifically, rather than (as could easily have happened) toward all Muslims and all Arabs. Thanks for small mercies…
@Nukular Biskits:
Agree, but I’m even more sick and tired of Republicans who posture as Ukraine supporters (to get swing votes) but then actively sabotage Ukraine aid because reasons. Looking at you, Lindsey Graham and Mike Johnson…
Andrya
@Freemark:
Agree, but I’d like to add- we wouldn’t be dealing with the current Iran regime if in 1953 the US/UK had not overthrown the elected Iranian government and installed the Shah, who ruled lawlessly, brutally, corruptly, and without elections.
Nukular Biskits
@Adam L Silverman:
Not that I have had occasion to disagree with any of your analysis previously, but on this we DEFINITELY agree.
Israeli politics are … chaotic, IMHO, but even with that caveat, I have to admit being baffled that Israelis continue to put this warmonger/criminal in charge.
But, having said that, I suppose the rest of the world wonders WTF the US would consider giving Trump another term.
Lyrebird
I completely believe you, I’m just amazed at how different things can be. It’s a smaller reaction, but I am tired of the different fundraising appeals I have been getting, mostly from groups claiming affiliation with a former presidential candidate from Vermont – donate now, they shout, to fight the influence of [rhymes with hay pack], help us support more candidates like… Nina Turner! WTAF. The ones who actually ask for a reason I clicked on “unsubscribe” are getting a brief explanation along with their unsubscribe.
Adam L Silverman
I’m going offline and going to rack out.
Catch everyone on the flip.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian:
These are serious anxieties that are grounded in unfortunate reality. I hope for all our sakes that they will prove unfounded. As you already know, you are not “other” among us.
Lyrebird
@Lyrebird: Tried to edit the above but was too slow, and I am fading anyhow. Anyhow, when I have any coppers to allocate to this, I will send them to WCK first.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Jay
@sab:
There is also the free Epoch Times, a print media that has “flooded the zone”.
Sally
@JPL: Bibi hopes his actions will hurt Pres. Biden.
Ed: Should have read on, others have said it.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: I feel very safe in this community. however, I am hearing too many stories from Chinese Americans & Chinese nationals in academia & tech continuing to be racially profiled, & have had their reputations & careers nevertheless ruined by clumsy prosecutions that ultimate collapse. Their employers, especially state universities, have failed to provide any support, & instead have pressured them to resign or be fired just to avoid political scrutiny or controversy. I have also heard too many stories of Chinese Americans & Chinese nationals treated w/ suspicion & humiliation by CBP on entry to the U.S. R states are passing legislation that restrict Chinese nationals (including permanent residents) from purchasing property, or banning Chinese graduate students from the labs in state universities, w/o any pushback from D politicians. & there is room for things to get much worse, & likely will under Trump.
All of these actions are counterproductive for U.S. interests. The PRC is by far the largest producer of undergraduate talent for AI, and many of the better talent go to the U.S. for graduate/post-graduate study, w/ most preferring to stay long term. The rising hostility to Chinese nationals in STEM fields will drive these talent back to the PRC, or other countries.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: I can’t speak directly to those experiences. I can only contrast them to those of my own Chinese colleagues at a DOE National Laboratory, who are treated with the professional respect and courtesy appropriate to their accomplishments. Many of our invited seminar speakers are also Chinese nationals, and they are invariably welcomed for what they can teach us. I gave a presentation at a Chicago-area technical University today, after which I spoke with a Chinese national faculty member and had a perfectly comfortable, utterly normal technical discussion with him and his (US national) graduate student. I have also participated in postdoc hiring processes in which Chinese nationals were shortlisted (they were excellent). We have numerous such early-career hires who are Chinese. So far as I am aware, the US Government is in no way interfering with Chinese nationals hirings or invitations to US universities, or to other research institutions.
I don’t wish to diminish the gravity of the situations that you describe. I merely point out that they are not universal, and possibly not even norms.
wjca
Thus assuring that they will continue to lag behind other, less bigoted, states. The facility, the sheer inventiveness, with which these folks shoot themselves in the foot is truly awesome.
YY_Sima Qian
@YY_Sima Qian: Stories of how the Chinese communities in the US (Chinese nationals & Chinese Americans) come under pressure by both the CPC regime (to extend influence & suppress dissent) & USG (suspected of disloyalty & espionage) is not often featured here or in MSM. Activism by Chinese communities on the US to push back do not find much political resonance. I supposed Arab/Muslim Americans feel similar disillusionment, but w/ even greater intensity, as they perceive US mainstream politicians & especially the Biden Administration to be unresponsive to their concerns & outrage over the atrocities being carried daily out in Gaza.
Any action that facilitates the return of Trump only makes things far worse, whether by voting R or staying home, but being the lesser of two evils to large parts of its coalition is not a sustainable winning strategy for Ds, either.
Just saw footage on Twitter of someone crying out at a Trump rally “Genocide Joe”, & Trump responding w/ “that is not wrong”. He & his team know what they are doing, & their cynicism knows no bounds. & his supporters will have no trouble criticizing Biden for failing to sufficiently support Israel for facilitating Israeli war crimes in Gaza at the same time. His supporters will have no trouble criticizing Biden for “being in the CPC regime’s pocket” & for failing to reach a “beautiful” deal w/ the PRC to end the trade war at the same time. His supporters will have no trouble criticizing Biden for being a weakling compared to Putin & for giving Ukraine too much aid at the same time. That gives Trump & the Rs space to cynically try to suppress the enthusiasm of parts of the D coalition.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: It is not yet universal, & Biden finally shutting down the “China Initiative” helped a bit. A great deal is dependent on how each institution chooses to protect their employees from unfair treatment. It seems private universities have been better in this regard.
Overall, polling among Chinese academics in the US have consistently show increasing concern since the launch of the “China Initiative” under Trump, & have not really ameliorated under Biden.
Here is one such study:
Here is an article that summarizes the survey results & the exodus of Chinese researchers from the US:
Here is a summary of a panel discussion of how universities (especially state ones) abandoned their Chinese faculties who came under any scrutiny, indeed blamed them for engagement w/ Chinese institutions that the universities themselves had encouraged:
Here is an article on the seemingly arbitrary treatment Chinese nationals & even Chinese Americans receive at the border:
bjacques
Adam’s having a well-deserved good night’s sleep, but I hope someone here (Geminid?) can answer: is it reasonable to characterize the IDF rank and file as essentially border guards? I know they’ve had sporadic dustups with Hamas or Hezbollah, but it seems like most spend their national service working border checkpoints or—wrt Gaza checkpoints , prison guards—with the power to ruin the day of some Palestinian who can’t afford to resist. That seems to point to a relative lack of discipline, such as abusing civilians and blowing up mosques and putting it on TikTok.
I also remember some years back that in the IDF’s attempt at a raid across the Lebanese border, they made eight feet before losing a tank and having a soldier taken hostage.
And I follow Malcolm Nance on Xitter, but he’s really gone off into “My Israel, right or wrong” territory.
Jay
bjacques
That would be a no.
Part of the IDF, is an occupation force, and occupations rot armies.
Part of the IDF is a counter guerilla force/anti-terrorist force, and that causes rot even faster.
Part of the IDF is an actual army, but, their opponents have countered their material superiority with newer weapons, better tactics, bunkers, strategy.
As Adam has pointed out, the IDF is Commanded, in military actions and on the political front, by people with tactics, but no strategy,
What kind of morons bomb a Embassy to kill one General, with out thinking of the consequences?
bjacques
Thanks! I gather your question is an opening to mention Trump droned Iranian General Soleimani?
Jay
@bjacques:
Iranian General Soleimani was killed in the open, in Bagdad.
Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, was killed along with another General and six other people, when Israel bombed the Iranian Consulate in Damascus.
https://legal.un.org/ilc/texts/instruments/english/conventions/9_1_1961.pdf
Embassy’s, Consulates and Diplomats are not lawful military targets, anywhere.
bjacques
Agree. Just saying I think Trump was a moron for ordering that assassination, even if it was in the field—directly attacking an Iranian combatant, when (as far as I’m aware), Biden and Obama before him took pains to avoid that.
It looks like almost all of Iran’s drones and missiles were shot down over Jordan. That’s a hundred that won’t be used in Ukraine.
Jay
@bjacques:
it was an illegal killing, and stupid.
Traveller
@YY_Sima Qian:
“& my parents will be interned in the US because of their Chinese ethnicity.”
I would like to give you assurances that this is not even remotely possible. Certainly in a war scenario there would be anti-Chinese rhetoric…but the Chinese community is too fervently “American,” and is seen as such as to ever be in the kind of danger you suggest.
There is also the Korean example in the Los Angeles Riots, where they took to their guns and pretty effectively protected Korea Town from rioters…the Chinese population is much more substantial.
I personally live in a majority Asian city, most of my clientele is Chinese & Vietnamese…the city government, police department etc are effective Asian run….to the betterment of the community.
16.3% of California’s population is Asian, mostly Chinese…so your fears I think will never come to pass. This is again, as noted, not to deny anti-Chinese backlash in a war footing…but it will be isolated and not amount to much. In my white-faced opinion. Best Wishes, Traveller
Arclite
I find it rich that a nation whose current government came to power by literally violating the sovereignty of the US Embassy in Tehran in 1979 should use “consular sovereignty” as a pretext to attack Israel, but here we are. Iran routinely ships weapons to Hezbollah via Syria, shipments which Israel routinely blows up but most of which get through. At some point Israel has to send a stronger message. While I agree this appears yet another one of Bibi’s attempts at ramping things up to make elections untenable, it’s hard to fault Israel for this act. Imagine the freakout if Israel were arming Iranian Kurds or Baluchs, but Iran doing it is just business as usual.
Iran continues to supply and train Houthis, Iraqi militias, Hezbollah, and many other groups, destabilizing the Middle East at large. And frustratingly little is done to counter this aside from the occasional intercepted weapons shipment.
Martin
@Traveller: My city is half asian, mostly Chinese – pretty even mix of PRC and ROC.
I find the suggestion that there could be a return to interment to be pretty ridiculous. The first asian voting member of congress was elected in 1957, there are dozens now. I find it hard to believe we’re going to inter sitting members of Congress, substantial parts of the California state legislature, mayors, etc.
The academic issues are more substantial. I worked at a university with a large share of Chinese-born faculty and damn near the largest Chinese-born student population in the nation. We had partnerships with Chinese universities, as well, so it was a target-rich environment for anyone who wanted to falsely accuse faculty of misconduct. That never happened, however had it happened, universities are poorly equipped to respond to an organized media or political campaign against faculty. It’s just not infrastructure that universities build – especially public ones as that would be seen as a huge waste of taxpayer dollars.
I’ve seen these campaigns levied against faculty at other institutions, and my recollection is that there are no cases where a Chinese born academic has been proven to spy. I am aware of a number of cases where non-Chinese academics were targeted to share information with China, usually without the academics realizing the sensitivity of what was being shared. For instance, US academics inadvertently helped populate a lot of the genetic and biometric data used in China’s systems for automated Uyghur identification and tracking believing it was being used for other purposes.
And I’ve seen this kind of stuff up close. I had the FBI in my office nearly every day for about a year after 9/11 as they climbed up the ass of every one of our muslim students and faculty. That was a much easier effort though as it wasn’t focused on expropriation of research, it was focused on people being in-country assets who might commit violence. We were a lot better prepared for that kind of scenario because it was a lot more direct, there were no political or media campaigns being waged. The FBI was very twitchy and sometimes aggressive, but they were also people we were accustomed to working with on things like security clearance and background checks so everything you needed to work with was in the room, if that makes sense. So long as I could convince the agents our people were okay, that was the end of it, and there were no false accusations we were trying to disprove.
So, the matter of Chinese born academics is a real one, but not Chinese born US nationals.
Jay
@Arclite:
A) The Iranian Government at the time did not take over the US Embassy, Iranian students did.
B) The current Iranian Government crushed both the Iranian Government that was the Government at that time, and also the students.
But a nice piece of Hasbara and “whataboutism”.
ColoradoGuy
Bombing an Embassy is a big ****ing deal, tantamount to an act of war. And there was nothing “accidental” about it; it was ordered by the Prime Minister, and the whole chain of command knew they were breaking international law.
What they did was expose Israeli Embassies all over the world to tit-for-tat retaliation … assassination of embassy staff, RPG’s fired into embassy grounds, and many other atrocities. It was a purposeful and deliberate major escalation, and I suspect a ploy to draw in the USA to join the religious fanatics in the Israeli cabinet.
YY_Sima Qian
@Traveller:
@Martin:
Today, no. In a war where tens of thousands of U.S. soldiers have died at PRC hands, particularly if the PRC is perceived to have attacked 1st, w/ Rs controlling the WH, Congress & a majority of states? I can definitely see that happen. Perhaps CA & NY would push back such order as unconstitutional, but R states would enthusiastically follow. Just look at how GOP politicians, certain Dem political grandees (such as Leon Panetta), & the FBI have been characterizing all Chinese international students as suspect, & Chinese engineers coming into the U.S. to transfer battery tech to U.S. companies as potential spies. The rhetorical field is being prepared, & has been since the middle of the Trump Administration.
New Deal democrat
Very late update to this thread, but I think Kevin Drum gets it right:
“This was obviously intended to be a pinprick attack [aimed at the military base from which the Damascus attack was launched], just enough to save face but not to do any serious damage. It couldn’t be more obvious if Iran spelled out a message on the moon.
“…. They couldn’t literally do nothing in response to the embassy attack, but this is the next best thing. They plainly have no interest in escalating things to a point that might get the US directly involved.”
YY_Sima Qian
@New Deal democrat: The Biden Administration has stated that the US will not participate in any Israeli retaliation to the Iranian retaliation, & indeed has warned Israel against striking into Iran.
However, a lot of analysts of the ME seem to think that Israel really wants to take this opportunity to hit Iran’s nuclear weapons development program. Here is a Twitter thread on what that might look like, & the limitations/risks of such a course of action:
wjca
Actually, it’s quite easy to fault Israel for this. Just as Equador is being rightly condemned for invading (and that is, legally, the exact work) the Mexican embassy a couple of weeks ago.
Embassies, consulates, etc. are off limits. And for a reason. Certainly it is inconvenient sometimes. Diplomatic immunity generally can be a pain. (See illegal parking issues in NYC, for example.) But the alternative is worse, which is why the principle was established in the first place.
As for the storming of the US Embassy in Tehran, note that this wasn’t an act of a government. (Nor was the new Iranian government, which was already in power, informed ahead of time.) So, a rather different situation.
EDT And Jay got there first.
Bill Arnold
@YY_Sima Qian:
Interesting thread.
Such an attack would IMO seal the path towards Israel’s eventual destruction in nuclear fire. Not certain, but a serious existential risk, for Israel, and others in the general area and maybe the rest of the world. It is said that Mr. B. Netanyahu has been hiding in a nuclear bunker the last few days; that’s without known Iranian nuclear weapons.
A main problem is that most of the work involved in uranium enrichment is done in the early stages, from the natural ratio of U235/U238 to the low percents. If Iran has sufficient already-enriched uranium, they can do the remaining separation work with a smaller centrifuge line, covert and buried deep underground. And that is presuming that they do not already have enough already-weapons-grade uranium (or, yes, plutonium) for a few bombs. Israelis cannot know the details with confidence; Israeli arrogance can be pathological, but it is not universal. And Iranian subterfuge and response-calibration skills are respectable.
In other words, such an attack would near-guarantee an eventual large Iranian nuclear arsenal.
It would also probably trigger a nuclear arms race in the region, involving the KSA and maybe others, with short missile point-to-point times, a missile-antimissile arms race (decoys, stealth, etc), and other delivery mechanisms.
Related, Russia has been boosting/providing arguments for such nuclear proliferation with its invasion of Ukraine and its outspoken belligerent threats to use its nuclear arsenal on its neighbor and on others, nuclear-armed and not.
Bill Arnold
@Arclite:
Nonsense. It was extraterritorial assassination of members of a foreign nation’s government, on what is legally territory of that nation. There are not many other countries that perform such extraterritorial assassinations of the citizens of other countries while not in a state of war. The USA, occasionally. Russia. A few others. (Note: The IRGC is a part of the Iranian government.)
Every time Israel does this, they are also implicitly threatening the governments of every other nation in the world. Do you seriously believe that the US Secret Service does not already worry about Israeli assassination teams?
wjca
There might be a problem for the Saudis. Unlike Iran, they have minimal expertise among their own people. Pretty much every non-management job, whether governmental or otherwise, is done by ex-pats. Simply because there aren’t Saudis who know how.
So they would either have to hire outsiders (very hard to do covertly), or buy the weapons. And from whom? The only ones I can think of who might be willing to sell are the North Koreans. And it’s hard to see them depleting their limited stock of nukes.
Geminid
@wjca: Pakistan could sell nuclear weapons to the Saudis.
Jay
@Geminid:
It has been rumored for decades, that Sawdi Arabia funded Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons program in exchange for part of the weapons.
But, they didn’t.
The closest anybody has ever come to “selling” a nuclear weapon, is Israel and South Africa jointly working on a nuclear weapon program.
Geminid
@Jay: Like I said, Pakistan could sell Saudi Arabia nuclear weapons. I don’t think they would so long as Iran hasn’t acquired them but if and when Iran does, Pakistan may think differently.