Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

People are complicated. Love is not.

I was confident that someone would point it out and thought why not me.

Republicans cannot even be trusted with their own money.

Nancy smash is sick of your bullshit.

Boeing: repeatedly making the case for high speed rail.

Shut up, hissy kitty!

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

Israel is using food as a weapon of war. Unforgivable.

Do we throw up our hands or do we roll up our sleeves? (hint, it’s door #2)

The real work of an opposition party is to hold the people in power accountable.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

“woke” is the new caravan.

They’re not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

Compromise? There is no middle ground between a firefighter and an arsonist.

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

Accountability, motherfuckers.

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

I am pretty sure Katy Tur wasn’t always such a bootlicking sycophant.

The worst democrat is better than the best republican.

Putin dreamed of ending NATO, and now it’s Finnish-ed.

You’re just a puppy masquerading as an old coot.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 822: Russia Tu-95 “Bear” Bombers Are Airborne! Air Raid Alerts Up Over All of Eastern & Southern Ukraine!

War for Ukraine Day 822: Russia Tu-95 “Bear” Bombers Are Airborne! Air Raid Alerts Up Over All of Eastern & Southern Ukraine!

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Air raid alert map of Ukraine. All of eastern and southern Ukraine is under air raid warnings.

(Air Raid Alert Map as of 6:56 PM EDT)

Quick housekeeping note: the dogs are fine! The tweet embedding problem is definitely because of the change from twitter.com to x.com URLs.

In the hour that I’ve been writing this the air raid alerts have gone up over 2/3rds of Ukraine. Only its westernmost Oblasts are not under air raid warning!

Air raid alert map of Ukraine as of 7:56 PM EDT on 25 MAY 2024. 2/3rds of Ukraine is under air raid alerts. Only the westernmost oblasts/regions are not under alert.

Kharkiv was hit early today, but right now the Russian’s have five Tu-95 strategic bombers in the air and all of eastern and southern Ukraine is under air raid alerts and warnings.

Here’s the full text of Trofimov’s quoted tweet:

Russia hit the Epicenter shopping mall in Kharkiv as it was packed with customers. Authorities say at least 11 people are dead. Reminder: the White House prohibits Ukraine from using American weapons to target Russian bases, launchers and planes that pummel Kharkiv daily from across the border, because “escalation.”

Russian military airfield Baltimore near Voronezh. Airfield from which Russian military aircrafts took off to attack the hardware store in Kharkiv.

180km from the frontline, 50km closer than Belbek military airfield in Sevastopol which was targeted by ATACMS missiles recently.

We were able to prevent this, save lives. But unfortunately for all Ukrainian, for Kharkiv residents who will soon bury their family members, Baltimore and other military targets on Russian territory are under the personal protection of J.Sullivan and his colleagues.

The problem, as I and others have repeatedly pointed out, is that the US prohibits the Ukrainians from using US supplied weapons systems and/or munitions to strike across the border into Russia. This makes the Russian military very happy because it means they can launch their bombers and stage personnel and equipment across the border and Ukraine either has to use its own limited supply of Ukrainian produced weapons to try to degrade and deter Russian attacks or wait until the Russians cross the border. Combined with the dearth of air defense – both US and European/NATO ally produced systems and munitions – and Kharkiv and Sumy and Odesa and all the other oblasts bordering Russia, Belarus, and the Black Sea are exposed and vulnerable. The US backfill won’t really begin to arrive in significant quantities until mid June to July. The Czech Republic’s 155mm shell campaign resupply won’t arrive until then either. And even when Ukraine uses Ukrainian produced weaponry, or British weaponry as they appear to have removed any geographic restrictions and caveats on their use, the US often publicly tells the Ukrainians to stop attacking across the border. This is the policy equivalent of lie back and take it.

Here’s the full text of Kuleba’s tweet:

Putin may spread any lies, but here are his actions. Barbaric war crimes against civilians.

Large shopping mall in Kharkiv. Saturday. Heinous strike to ensure maximum casualties. He can’t occupy Kharkiv, hence he tries to kill it.

There are two ways for Ukraine’s partners to prevent such strikes.

First: more “Patriots” and other air defense systems for Ukraine.

Second: Ukraine shooting down Russian military aircraft before they drop bombs on Kharkiv and other cities and communities.

Provide Ukraine with additional air defense and support Ukrainian strikes on military targets in Russia. Act now.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

The Strike on Kharkiv is Another Manifestation of Russian Madness, There Is Just No Other Way to Put It — Address by the President of Ukraine

25 May 2024 – 17:42

Dear Ukrainians!

We have just received the first reports about Kharkiv – about a strike on the city, on an obvious civilian object: a shopping center, a construction hypermarket. It was Saturday, daytime. One of the largest centers – there were many employees and visitors inside. Now the whole area is on fire. All the necessary services have arrived there – the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, medical services, local authorities, and police. All of them are fighting for every life.

This strike on Kharkiv is another manifestation of Russian madness, there is just no other way to put it. Only such madmen as Putin are capable of killing and terrorizing people in such a vile way.

We already know that there are wounded, and there are killed. My condolences to the families and friends. Anyone who has been affected will get the help they need.

When we tell the world leaders that Ukraine needs sufficient air defense protection, when we say that real determination is needed to allow us to protect the lives of our people in the most effective way possible, so that Russian terrorists cannot even get close to our borders, we are talking about literally preventing such terrorist attacks. I thank the leaders who truly support us, who truly see that every decision to support Ukraine is a decision to protect and save lives.

Today, our warriors in the Donetsk region have achieved the result that is needed in all directions, in all those areas where Russian attacks threaten our positions, our cities and communities. The warriors of our 110th separate mechanized brigade have shot down another Russian Su-25 today.

Of course, if we had more adequate modern air defense systems and aircraft, the Russian air fleet would have already suffered the same collapse as their Black Sea fleet. And Russian terror would simply become impossible. Shooting down Russian combat aircraft, Russian missiles, and their drones is a true peacekeeping measure.

I thank everyone in the world who helps us with weapons! I thank all those who work in our defense industry and produce the defense for Ukraine! I thank all those who fight for Ukraine and for our people! May the memory of all those whose lives were taken by Russian murderers be eternal and bright.

Glory to Ukraine!

The Lithuanians have had about all they’re willing to stomach:

This is ungood!

From The Washington Post: (emphasis mine)

KYIV — Many U.S.-made satellite-guided munitions in Ukraine have failed to withstand Russian jamming technology, prompting Kyiv to stop using certain types of Western-provided armaments after effectiveness rates plummeted, according to senior Ukrainian military officials and confidential internal Ukrainian assessments obtained by The Washington Post.

Russia’s jamming of the guidance systems of modern Western weapons, including Excalibur GPS-guided artillery shells and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, which can fire some U.S.-made rockets with a range of up to 50 miles, has eroded Ukraine’s ability to defend its territory and has left officials in Kyiv urgently seeking help from the Pentagon to obtain upgrades from arms manufacturers.

Russia’s ability to combat the high-tech munitions has far-reaching implications for Ukraine and its Western supporters — potentially providing a blueprint for adversaries such as China and Iran — and it is a key reason Moscow’s forces have regained the initiative and are advancing on the battlefield.

The success ratefor the U.S.-designed Excalibur shells, for example, fell sharply over a period of months — to less than 10 percent hitting their targets — before Ukraine’s military abandoned them last year, according to the confidential Ukrainian assessments.

While other news accounts have described Russia’s superior electronic warfare capabilities, the documents obtained by The Post include previously unreported details on the extent to which Russian jamming has thwarted Western weaponry.

“The Excalibur technology in existing versions has lost its potential,” the assessments found, adding that battlefield experience in Ukraine had disproved its reputation as a “one shot, one target” weapon — at least until the Pentagon and U.S. manufacturers address the issue.

Six months ago, after Ukrainians reported the problem, Washington simply stopped providing Excalibur shells because of the high failure rate, the Ukrainian officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive security matter. In other cases, such as aircraft-dropped bombs called JDAMs, the manufacturer provided a patch and Ukraine continues to use them.

Ukraine’s military command prepared the reports between fall 2023 and April 2024 and shared them with the U.S. and other supporters, hoping to develop solutions and open up direct contact with weapons manufacturers. In interviews, Ukrainian officials described an overly bureaucratic process that they said had complicated a path toward urgently needed adjustments to improve the failing weaponry.

The officials agreed to answer questions about the assessments in hopes of drawing attention to the Ukrainian military’s needs. Several Ukrainian and U.S. officials interviewed for this story spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.

The Pentagon anticipated that some precision-guided munitions would be defeated by Russian electronic warfare and has worked with Ukraine to hone tactics and techniques, a senior U.S. defense official said.

Russia “has continued to expand their use of electronic warfare,” the senior U.S. official said. “And we continue to evolve and make sure that Ukraine has the capabilities they need to be effective.”

The U.S. defense official rejected claims that bureaucracy has slowed the response. The Pentagon and weapons manufacturers have provided solutions sometimes within hours or days, the official said, but did not provide examples.

Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, in a statement, said that it cooperates regularly with the Pentagon and also communicates directly with weapons manufacturers.

“We work closely with the Pentagon on such matters. In the event of technical problems, we promptly inform our partners to take the necessary measures to solve them in a timely manner,” the ministry said. “Our partners from the USA and other Western countries provide constant support for our requests. In particular, we regularly receive recommendations to improve the equipment.”

U.S.-made guided munitions provided to Ukraine typically were successful when introduced, but often became less so as Russian forces adapted. Now, some arms once considered potent tools no longer provide an edge.

In a conventional war, the U.S. military might not face the same difficulties as Ukraine because it has a more advanced air force and robust electronic countermeasures, but Russia’s capabilities nonetheless put heavy pressure on Washington and its NATO allies to continue innovating.

“I’m not saying no one was worried about it before, but now they’re starting to worry,” one senior Ukrainian military official said.

“As we share information with our partners and our partners share with us, the Russians definitely also share with China,” the official added. “And even if they don’t share with China … China monitors events in Ukraine.”

Ukrainians initially found success using Excalibur 155mm rounds, with more than 50 percent accurately hitting their targets early last year, according to the confidential assessment, which was based on direct visual observations. Over the next several months, that dropped below 10 percent, with the assessment pointing to Russian GPS jamming as the culprit.

The study cautioned that far fewer shells were fired later in the research period, and many were not observed, leaving the precise success rate unclear.

But even before the United States ceased deliveries, Ukrainian artillerymen had largely stopped using Excalibur, the assessments said, because the shells are harder to use compared with standard howitzer rounds, requiring time-consuming special calculations and programming. Now they are shunned altogether, military personnel in the field said.

The senior Ukrainian official said Kyiv shared this feedback with Washington but got no response. The Ukrainians have faced a similar challenge with guided 155mm shells provided by other Western countries. Some employ guidance other than GPS, and it is unclear why they also became less effective. U.S. defense officials declined to address the Ukrainian assertion.

Rob Lee, a senior fellow with the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a Philadelphia-based research group, said that Russia’s use of electronic warfare to combat guided munitions was an important battlefield development in the past year. Many weapons are potent when they’re introduced, but they lose effectiveness over time, Lee said, part of a nonstop game of cat-and-mouse between adversaries who constantly adapt and innovate.

The involvement of defense companies is crucial to overcoming Russian defenses such as jamming, Lee said.

“The problem with a lot of Western defense companies,” Lee said, compared with Russian manufacturers, is that “there is not the same sense of urgency.”

Much more at the link!

 

 

Kharkiv:

Here’s the full text of Voichuk’s tweet:

Russian forces have been employing a tactic of striking crowded areas in Kharkiv over the weekend, aimed at maximizing civilian casualties and instilling fear and chaos. Last week, they targeted a recreation area, killing seven people. Today, they struck a hardware store, with two confirmed fatalities. A large number of people are reported missing and injured. The fire has engulfed an area of about 15,000 square meters.

What the fck is wrong with this world if it still isn’t doing everything possible to ensure Ukraine’s victory and protect innocent people?

That, is the question!

The Donbas:

Here’s video of the Su-25 that the 110th Mechanized Brigade brought down yesterday.

Russian Occupied Crimea:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets tonight. Here is some adjacent material.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

14Comments

  1. 1.

    YY_Sima Qian

    The efficacy of GPS jamming goes both ways. Following the U.S.’ example, the PLA also relies upon a large arsenal of ground & air launched munitions guided by the Beidou global navigation system.

    Laser guided artillery shells & mortar bombs require line of site from front line spotters or aerial drones. Laser & TV guided aerial bombs makes the launch platforms much more vulnerable to AD.

    Ballistic missiles may be less vulnerable here, as they can update their position in the exospheric part of their trajectory, while outside of the range of the jammers. PLA ballistic missiles, at least, are rumored to have additional terminal guidance sensors, as well.

  2. 2.

    Parfigliano

    Not being able to hit cross border staging areas from which attacks came worked really well for us in Vietnam

  3. 3.

    Bill Arnold

    @YY_Sima Qian:
    GPS (a similar systems) jammers are vulnerable as well, if they are in a fixed location and broadcast for more than several seconds at a time. A drone can be equipped to direction-find; a basic published method is to fly in a tight circle (once per direction finding) with a directionally sensitive receiver.
    Also, Another Scott linked in one of these threads (May 4) about the US discussing supplying JDAM-ER systems with GPS-jammer-seeking capabilities to Ukraine.

  4. 4.

    YY_Sima Qian

    OTOH, wrt to the WaPo article on EW against GPS guidance, here is Mike Black’s take:

    Mike Black
    @MikeBlack114

    Good lord that WaPo UKR EW piece is awful Like there’s so many things about it that are technically incorrect I almost wonder if it wasn’t an attempt by the Ukrainians at disinformation given who the sourcing was

    Anyway I’d say don’t take that piece as proof of anything really, other than “EW is complex and can’t be distilled down into a neat easy to digest article”, and PLEASE don’t draw sweeping conclusions about a US-China conflict from it, but welp

    Mike Black is a former USAF ordnance officer & appears to have been involved in analyses, wargaming & consulting on contingencies against the PRC in the Asia Pacific during & post his USAF career. He has been (at least on Twitter) a steadfast supporter of Ukraine & Taiwan, but also does not suffer fools, bad faith, hysteria, threat inflation, threat minimization, & hyperbole (even though his Twitter persona is that of a polemicist).

    He is one of the few American natsec people I follow who appears to be a committed D voter, despite his multitude of criticisms of Biden’s foreign policy. He is also one of the relatively few American natsec people I follow who is vocally & steadfastly anti-MAGA & fellow travelers. Many current & former members of American natsec technocracy (as opposed to political appointees) tend to be relatively low key on the threat to American democracy that the reactionary authoritarian GOP poses, & prefer to focus on the perceived threat to American democracy posed by Russia, the PRC, Iran & NK, all in the name of being “apolitical”. Worse, they & most other parts of the “Blob” seem comfortable in maintaining former & potential future members of Trump Administrations, people who either enabled Trump or turned a blind eye & used Trump to advance their own agendas, as members in good standing in their chummy club. Most of them probably loath Trump, & probably would decline to serve in a 2nd Trump Administration, but they are normalizing reactionaries, authoritarians, militarists & committed Cold Warriors who are angling to serve in such an Administration.

  6. 6.

    Adam L Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: Ahem!

    one of the few American natsec people I follow who appears to be a committed D voter, despite his multitude of criticisms of Biden’s foreign policy. He is also one of the relatively few American natsec people I follow who is vocally & steadfastly anti-MAGA & fellow travelers.

  8. 8.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Bill Arnold: Yeah, warfare is a contest between systems (themselves composed of systems), & modern peer level high intensity warfare is the most complex of them all. There are no magic speaks or magic shields, any counter can be countered, & all technological advantages are temporary given enough time. Only logistical & numerical advantages may prove enduring.

    One thing I will note is that the Russian S-400 SAM appears to be less effective against ATACMS than the American Patriot system is against Kinzhals. AFAIK, ATACMS supplied to Ukraine only fly ballistic trajectories & does not carry decoys or countermeasures, & doesn’t reach hypersonic speeds, so should be the easiest kind of ballistic missiles to shoot down. The Kinzhal is claimed to be hypersonic, travels a quasi-ballistic trajectory, & capable of evasive maneuvers.

    India is probably concerned about the S-400 systems it has bought & yet to be delivered. The PLA has received the 8 battalions of S-400s that the PRC has purchased. I think they are stationed along the PRC’s SE coast, opposite TW. Performance in Ukraine can’t be encouraging. Of course, the PLAAF & the PLAN also have a plethora of domestic SAMs w/ claimed ballistic missile defense capabilities, as well as dedicated missiles for theater or even national ballistic missile defense, analogues of the American Patriot PAC3, THAAD, BMD, & SM-2/3/6.

    Until there is a hot war in the Western Pacific between the PRC & the TW/US/JPN, we won’t know how any of these systems will perform, & let’s hope we never do.

  9. 9.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: I did say “few” not “only”, & you certainly are among the “few”! & the polemicist part, too! I thought it didn’t need to be said. :-D

    Unfortunately, such voices as yours & Mike Black’s have a hard time getting the opportunity to influence policymakers.

  10. 10.

    Another Scott

    While not minimizing the practical issues with jamming, the breathless reporting about it is over the top. Jamming of satellite navigation systems, etc., has been known about for many, many decades.

    E.g. EOPortal.org:

    By 1972, the 621B program had already demonstrated operation of a new type of satellite-ranging signal based on repeatable digital sequences and PRN (Pseudo Random Noise). The PRN code is represented by repeated sequence of binary bits ( ones and zeoes) with noiselike properties that appear to be random; however, they are generated with total predictability. The reflected pulse could be compared against the original pulse pattern using a mathematical procedure known as “correlation” to determine the exact timing.

    To verify the new PRN technique, the Air Force ran a series of aircraft tests at the White Sands Proving Grounds (NM) using ground- balloon- and aircraft-carried transmitters to simulate satellites at various locations. 10)

    The PRN technique had distinct advantages over other techniques:

    – The technique pinpointed the positions of the aircraft to within 16 meters

    – The PRN technique had the capability to reject interference noise including jamming or deliberate interference. PRN techniques allow all satellites in a constellation to transit on the same frequency, therefore a communication channel could be added permitting the user to receive data (satellite location and clock information.

    The attributes of Sy[s]tem 621B were:

    – Wide area or global coverage and continuous availability

    – 3D and accurate velocity fixes

    – The technique is useable on rapid maneuvering vehicles.

    Clever people who have been working on this problem for 5-6-7 decades are aware of the issues and how to address them. As Bill Arnold mentioned, jammers make appealing targets for JDAM-ER munitions.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  13. 13.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @YY_Sima Qian: I wish Mike Black was more specific, so that we can evaluate his criticisms, but anything to do w/ EW is probably highly classified.

  14. 14.

    wjca

    Russia’s jamming of the guidance systems of modern Western weapons, including Excalibur GPS-guided artillery shells and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, which can fire some U.S.-made rockets with a range of up to 50 miles, has eroded Ukraine’s ability to defend its territory and has left officials in Kyiv urgently seeking help from the Pentagon to obtain upgrades from arms manufacturers.

    It occurs to me that the Ukrainians could put some of those fancy munitions on ballistic courses (i.e. shut of the guidance systems) towards Russian bases in Russia.

    “Gosh, the Russians have been jamming the guidance systems.  That must be what sent them across the border.”

    Hey, it’s thin cover, but possibly worth a try if it takes out some of Russia’s cross-border attach capability.

Comments are closed.