Quick housekeeping note. Rosie is still doing very well. She’s had no significant negative side effects from last Monday’s chemotherapy treatment. Her next one is next Monday. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.
Right now, just like last night around this time, which is very early morning in Ukraine, all of Ukraine is under air raid alert.
President Zelenskyy was traveling from the G7 to Switzerland for the peace forum, which is why there is no video address today.
I arrived in Switzerland for the Global Peace Summit. There will be two days of active work with countries from all parts of the world, with different nations that are nonetheless united by a common goal of bringing a just and lasting peace in Ukraine closer.
The Peace Summit… pic.twitter.com/DhS54e1Xk0
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 14, 2024
I arrived in Switzerland for the Global Peace Summit. There will be two days of active work with countries from all parts of the world, with different nations that are nonetheless united by a common goal of bringing a just and lasting peace in Ukraine closer.
The Peace Summit will provide an opportunity for the global majority to take specific steps in areas that matter for everyone in the world: nuclear safety, food security, and the return of prisoners of war and all deported persons, including deported Ukrainian children.
Around 100 countries and international organizations are set to participate in the summit. I am grateful to everyone who chose to attend and demonstrate global leadership and commitment to peace, international law, and the UN charter.
Together, as responsible global majority, we must make every effort to ensure that wars, aggressions, and colonial occupation can be ended and that they will never repeat. I am certain that everyone in the world is interested in just peace and respect for every nation.
This is why the summit is designed in such a way that each nation has the opportunity to demonstrate leadership in achieving shared goals. The voice of the responsible global majority has the potential to bring peace closer and restore full force to the UN Charter.
Putin decided he needed some public attention of his own to explain what peace in Ukraine means to him. For now. So he held a press event and laid down his current terms for pausing his genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine.
Putin offers a ceasefire in the event of the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, within their administrative borders (most of which Russia does not control and actually withdrew from after a defeat of Russian formations,… pic.twitter.com/aEdNkvVDaE
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) June 14, 2024
Putin offers a ceasefire in the event of the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, within their administrative borders (most of which Russia does not control and actually withdrew from after a defeat of Russian formations, such as in Kherson), in addition to rejection of NATO accession plans.
Putin’s conditions show what a hardline position Russia would take at any peace talks. They include Ukraine giving up two major cities: Kherson, which Russia withdrew from in the fall of 2022, and Zaporizhzhia, under Ukrainian control throughout the war.
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 14, 2024
Other conditions from Putin to end the war:
– Ukraine pledges never to join NATO
– all western sanctions against Russia are scrapped
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 14, 2024
Worth emphasizing that Russia is not seeking to end the war with the current front line, and its *minimum* objectives include occupying much more Ukrainian territory than it currently occupies. https://t.co/HJTF8sUy4k
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) June 14, 2024
We need to really listen to what Putin is communicating, both in his statement today and his actual actions. As Rob Lee makes clear, these are Putin’s minimum objectives. They are also not a peace treaty or an end to the war. Rather, these are Putin’s minimum requirements for a ceasefire! A ceasefire is a temporary pause in fighting, so more accurately what he is offering is a truce in exchange for a significant chunk of Ukraine, including areas he has no control over right now, as well as his maximalist objectives of Ukraine never joining NATO and, just as important for Putin, all of the sanctions are lifted. All of Putin’s demands are intended to give him time and space to reconstitute his economy and his military so he can come back and finish the job. It also would allow him to steal significant portions of Ukrainian agricultural products, energy generation capacity, all while simultaneously moving his borders westward so he can more easily threaten Europe.
These are not terms for a relatively or comparatively equitable peace. They are threats and demands. This war can only be ended on the battlefield because there is no way to negotiate a resolution with Putin because the only end to the war he will actually accept is one where Ukraine ceases to exist, he and Russia are rewarded for their genocide, and he then positions himself to repeat his actions in Ukraine with Moldova, Romania, the Baltics, Poland, Finland, Sweden, and Norway.
Here’s Zelenskyy’s response:
For anyone looking for logic in Putin’s ultimatum—it’s just a way to find new excuses to keep the aggression going. Russia has absolutely no plans to stop. pic.twitter.com/HEGI16UvEE
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 14, 2024
And the formal Ukrainian response:
Ukraine immediately rejected Putin’s proposal.
Oleksandr Lytvynenko, secretary of Ukraine’s @NSDC_ua, told @ChristopherJM Putin’s remarks were a “demonstration that he doesn’t want to negotiate” and that the Russian leader’s terms were unacceptable.https://t.co/A0CGq7N6Rn https://t.co/b5JrrDbNk0
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 14, 2024
From The Financial Times:
Oleksandr Lytvynenko, secretary of Ukraine’s national security and defence council, told the Financial Times that Putin’s remarks were a “demonstration that he doesn’t want to negotiate” and the Russian leader’s terms were unacceptable to Kyiv.
Lytvynenko said Putin was speaking out now because “he is afraid” that a peace summit spearheaded by Kyiv, which starts in Switzerland on Saturday, would be successful.
More at the link.
“…and in return, I will give nothing at all. At all. And I will take some time to recoup my losses, fix my flaws, and I will attack again in a much better shape.
Yes, I believe you can really end up being stupid enough to buy such a peace proposal.” https://t.co/JRzvAOQKxh
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 14, 2024
Putin is really placing a bet on the sort of uncurable idiots in the West who would comment on his (latest) unconditional surrender ultimatum to Ukraine as a ‘peace proposal’, and, moreover, would seriously pretend that Putin, the inciter of the largest European war of aggression…
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 14, 2024
Putin is really placing a bet on the sort of uncurable idiots in the West who would comment on his (latest) unconditional surrender ultimatum to Ukraine as a ‘peace proposal’, and, moreover, would seriously pretend that Putin, the inciter of the largest European war of aggression since Adolf Hitler and one of the most absurd and senseless wars ever, has some sort of high moral ground over ‘Western warmongers’ who ‘only prolong the war’ by helping Ukraine defend itself and survive as a country.
This is the dynamic that Putin is manipulating:
Russia makes unreasonable demand, Ukraine inevitably rejects, western media report Ukraine rejects Russian peace deal uncriticially. Repeat again in 6 months time.
— Kyle Glen (@KyleJGlen) June 14, 2024
Why headlines matter
‘Putin promises ceasefire’ is not the headline from his comments today on #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/6xtuxc86Xe
— Sarah Rainsford (@sarahrainsford) June 14, 2024
So, @AP, do you mean that Ukrainian troops are occupying Ukrainian territories?🤡 https://t.co/Ez75pSiitd
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) June 14, 2024
Putin knows that he was successful in establishing reflexive control over the US and European information environment regarding news. Russia’s preferred framing has been and continues to be the framing for the majority of the reporting regarding Russia’s activities, especially in regard to the war for Ukraine. This reflexive control is partially what has allowed Russia to so successfully undertake his political warfare, subversion campaigns, and influence campaigns.
Yes, inciters of the largest European war of aggression since WWII are definitely making “peaceful proposals” because they are actually full of goodwill and aspiration toward peace.
Also, it’s because their 2.5-year-long blitzkrieg to take Kyiv within three days is doing just… https://t.co/319AcTjdIT
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 14, 2024
Yes, inciters of the largest European war of aggression since WWII are definitely making “peaceful proposals” because they are actually full of goodwill and aspiration toward peace.
Also, it’s because their 2.5-year-long blitzkrieg to take Kyiv within three days is doing just fine.
The view from Russia:
Maxim Kalashnikov, a Russian futurist and friend of Strelkov-Girkin, known widely in narrow circles, predicts the freezing of the conflict on conditions unsuitable for the Russian Federation. His theories are rather exaggerated, but nevertheless, it is interesting to read the… pic.twitter.com/RWbeoIN5Ld
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) June 14, 2024
Maxim Kalashnikov, a Russian futurist and friend of Strelkov-Girkin, known widely in narrow circles, predicts the freezing of the conflict on conditions unsuitable for the Russian Federation. His theories are rather exaggerated, but nevertheless, it is interesting to read the changes in the psychology of the rashists lately.
“Well, the prospect of operation “Berlin Wall 2” after the freeze of the war has emerged. The fact that it is inevitable is already visible. Both the United States and China are pushing us towards it.
For the former, it is beneficial because it was possible to achieve important strategic goals. The anti-Russian statehood of Ukraine is preserved on eighty percent of its territory. The Russian irredenta – the unification of all branches of the Rus in one country – has been thwarted. A bloody wedge has been driven between the Great Russians and the Little Russians. The NATO bloc has been replenished with Swedes and Finns, and now it is being pushed even more towards the Russian Federation. There is already a possibility that the economy will fall after the reduction of military orders; the credit and financial bloc of the Russian Federation remains in the hands of pro-Western forces. The reserves of the Central Bank of the 2022 model were taken away from the country. In general, the Yankees will not consider all this a failure.
The Chinese are also in profit. The Russian Federation is weakened and more closely tied to Beijing in the role of a junior ally. Our technological and economic dependence on Beijing is only growing; it has twisted our arms in terms of gas supplies. It is quite possible to freeze the war and establish a new order, avoiding unrest in the Russian Federation.
So I think freezing is inevitable. Moreover, as a result of the war, it turns out that our situation has not improved (let me remind you of Clausewitz’s principle). And the struggle will not end by any means.
The West clearly intends to carry out Operation Berlin Wall 2. That is, to make sure that life in Bandera’s 80 percent of Ukraine-Little Russia (and in the part of Novorossiya that we have not conquered) was better, of higher quality than in the new federal district of Novorossiya in the Russian Federation. By analogy with the GDR and West Berlin (actually the Federal Republic of Germany) in 1961-1989. When Germans from the poorer socialist part fled to the rich West. They will obviously try to use the proven scheme in b. Ukrainian SSR.
For this purpose, de facto external management is being introduced in Kyiv (so that the native elite does not steal everything), and for the security of three hundred billion taken from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, large loans will be issued for the reconstruction of Banderistan. They will build new thermal power plants there, develop the agricultural industry (the raw material periphery of the West, its breadbasket), and streamline the work of anti-corruption structures. They will build normal courts and a system of local elections. They will create the impression of “this is europe” next to the “dense Asian despotism”…
No, Ukrainian citizens will not live as prosperously as Europeans. But our enemy will try to make their life better than on the lost 20 percent of the land. In order to create the effect of the Berlin Wall, confusing the minds and hearts of the residents of the federal district of Novorossiya. Moreover, the bulk of the ruins and humanitarian crises fall to us after the war is frozen. Well, if you weren’t able to prepare and carry out a successful blitzkrieg, then your reap what you sow.Moreover, the enemy will try to make very large expenditures on the Russian Federation to eliminate the devastation in new regions, thereby putting a stone on our necks that will drag us to the bottom. Combined with the continuation of the sanctions blockade and the need to spend a fair amount on the conversion of the military industry, which gained great momentum during the war. I believe that the enemy is betting that the Russian authorities will not survive economically. Well, 80% Ukraine will become a proxy for NATO, will be armed and will be trained to resume the war. Already taking into account the experience of the SMO, with the new Air Force, drones, etc. Maybe it will also receive American bases on its territory. Following the results of the SMO, the Anglo-Saxons are much less afraid of our nuclear weapons than before.
I consider this an extremely serious challenge. We need an extremely non-trivial plan for the new industrialization of the entire Russian Federation in order to prevent the effect of the Berlin Wall. Because simply pumping money into new regions while saving on the “old” lands of the Russian Federation is the path to turmoil. We need a general development project. Based on a clear project of the Future. And five-year plans.
Alas, so far our authorities have neither a clear image of the future Russia, nor a clearly articulated project of neo-industrialization, nor a successful practice of “taking off the raw materials needle” of the country as a whole.”
It is important to remember that Strelkov aka Girkin, one of the leaders of the Black Sea Cossacks who did Putin’s dirty work in Moldova, leading to the breakaway Transnistria, and in the Donbas in 2014, leading to the Russian occupation of parts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast, is now sitting in pre-trial detention in a Russian prison because he’s moved from catspaw to useless idiot on the Putin surrogate scale.
The PRC has been running its own subversion campaign against the Ukrainian Peace Summit in Switzerland:
“Reuters could not independently determine what impact China’s lobbying has had, but the number of registered participants at the Lucerne summit is down from the 107 that Zelenskiy’s office had said were confirmed by early June.” https://t.co/ebyHbTTpeQ
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) June 13, 2024
Reuters has the details. (emphasis mine)
BEIJING, June 13 (Reuters) – China, skipping a weekend summit on a peace plan for Ukraine, has been lobbying governments for its alternative plan, 10 diplomats said, with one calling Beijing’s campaign a “subtle boycott” of the global meeting in Switzerland.
Ninety states and organisations have registered to take part in the summit on Saturday and Sunday in the alpine resort of Lucerne, which will seek to build support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s peace proposals, including the full withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.
Moscow, which was not invited to Lucerne, has dismissed the meeting as futile. China, which has close ties to Russia, says it will not attend the conference because it does not meet Beijing’s requirements, including the participation of Russia.
China and Russia proclaimed a “no limits” partnership just days before President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Russia’s smaller neighbour in February 2022. Beijing says it is neutral in the conflict and has not supplied Moscow with weapons or ammunition.
After China said it was not going to the Lucerne summit, Zelenskiy accused Beijing of helping Moscow undermine the meeting, an accusation China’s foreign ministry denied.
Ukraine, the United States and other Western governments had lobbied hard for China to attend the talks, as they seek legitimacy for the summit and a broad consensus on a roadmap to a future peace process.
In conversations with developing nations, China has not overtly criticised the Swiss summit or directly asked countries to abstain, the Beijing-based diplomats told Reuters.
But one who was briefed on the outreach said Beijing has told developing nations the meeting would prolong the war, while two diplomats with direct knowledge of the matter said China has been telling Western nations that many developing countries are aligned with its views on the conference.
The diplomats asked not to be named because they were not authorised to discuss the sensitive matter with the news media.
Responding to Reuters’ questions, China’s foreign ministry said its position on the Swiss conference was “fair, just and open”.
“China has been in close communication with relevant parties, including Switzerland and Ukraine, and encourages the equal participation of all parties at the conference as well as fair discussion of all plans,” spokesperson Lin Jin told a routine briefing on Friday.
Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said last week: “China sincerely hopes that a peace conference will not turn into a platform used to create bloc confrontation. Not attending it does not mean not supporting peace.”
As the summit approaches, China has intensified its outreach through meetings with visiting foreign dignitaries, phone calls and messages to foreign missions on China’s WeChat platform, diplomats said.
Beijing’s special envoy for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, last month visited Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and has met officials of developing countries at their embassies in Beijing, the diplomats said.
While explaining why it will not attend the summit, China has been trying to enlist developing nations to join the six-point peace plan it issued with Brazil last month.
The proposal calls for an international peace conference “held at a proper time that is recognised by both Russia and Ukraine, with equal participation of all parties as well as fair discussion of all peace plans.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has suggested that China could arrange such a conference. Putin has expressed support for China’s plan for a peaceful settlement of the crisis, saying Beijing had a full understanding of what lay behind it.
The Chinese foreign ministry’s Lin said more than 100 countries had supported the proposal, “reflecting the common expectations of the international community and the biggest common denominator in the world today.”
Lin added, “We encourage even more countries to support and join the six-point consensus.”
Reuters could not independently determine what impact China’s lobbying has had, but the number of registered participants at the Lucerne summit is down from the 107 that Zelenskiy’s office had said were confirmed by early June.
In Asia, U.S. allies the Philippines and Japan, as well as Thailand, Singapore and East Timor have confirmed their attendance. Malaysia has said it will abstain, as has Cambodia, which has close economic links to China. Cambodia’s Senate President Hun Sen denied being pressured by Beijing to avoid the conference.
Indonesia will send its ambassador in Bern. Vietnam has not made its position clear.
Germany:
Great news from Germany 🔥
Germany delivered a new military aid package for Ukraine, which includes IRIS-T air defense systems, HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, and Leopard-1 tanks.
The full list is below:
◾️1 IRIS-T SLM air defense system
◾️1 IRIS-T SLS air defense system… pic.twitter.com/OgOBw6qevz— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 14, 2024
Great news from Germany 🔥
Germany delivered a new military aid package for Ukraine, which includes IRIS-T air defense systems, HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, and Leopard-1 tanks.
The full list is below:
◾️1 IRIS-T SLM air defense system
◾️1 IRIS-T SLS air defense system
◾️3 HIMARS multiple rocket launchers
◾️20 Marder IFVs
◾️10 Leopard 1 A5 main battle tanks
◾️ammunition for Leopard 1
◾️ammunition for Marder IFV
◾️21,000 rounds 155mm ammunition
◾️4 anti-drone sensors and jammers
◾️2 Beaver bridge-laying tanks
◾️2 Dachs armored engineer vehicles
◾️1 Bergepanzer 2 armored recovery vehicle
◾️4 Wisent 1 mine clearing tanks
◾️material for explosive ordnance disposal
◾️3 AMPS self-protection systems for helicopters
◾️100 night vision goggles
◾️IT equipment
◾️16 Zetros tankers
◾️100 MK 556 assault rifles
◾️85 HLR 338 precision rifles with 180,000 rounds ammunition
◾️100 CR 308 rifles
◾️4 million rounds of ammunition for fire arms
◾️rescue boatsWe are grateful to our German friends for their leadership and unwavering support! Together, we will win!
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪
Denmark:
Denmark has become the first NATO country to invest invest in the production of weapons in Ukraine.
Minister @rustem_umerov and his Danish counterpart @troelslundp signed a Memorandum regarding the purchase of weapons and equipment from Ukrainian manufacturers.
We are grateful… pic.twitter.com/5rCh4eDdMu
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 14, 2024
Denmark has become the first NATO country to invest invest in the production of weapons in Ukraine.
Minister @rustem_umerov and his Danish counterpart @troelslundp signed a Memorandum regarding the purchase of weapons and equipment from Ukrainian manufacturers.
We are grateful to Denmark for its vital support on the way to protect freedom and democracy.
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇰
@Forsvarsmin
The EU:
EU states give political agreement to formally open accession negotiations with Ukraine
Hungary, which had vetoed the deal for weeks, agreed after getting pledges on rights for minorities in UA
(Another classic of the Friday night 9pm breaking news genre that news editors love) https://t.co/dcCgf4BmlT
— Henry Foy (@HenryJFoy) June 14, 2024
Secretary Austin made a statement to the press yesterday at the 23rd meeting of the Ukraine Contact Group. Here’s the opening statement. (emphasis mine)
Opening Remarks by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III at the 23nd Ukraine Defense Contact Group (As Delivered)
June 13, 2024Brussels, Belgium
Good morning, everyone. It’s great to see you all again. Thanks for joining us for the twenty-third meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group.
I’m glad that we’re joined again by our partners from Ukraine. Minister Umerov and your teammates, thanks for being here.
As we gather this morning, Ukraine’s forces are in a tough fight. In Kharkiv and elsewhere, the Kremlin continues to intensify its bombardment of Ukraine’s cities and civilians. And Ukraine urgently needs more air-defense capabilities to defend its skies.
But the Ukrainian people remain resilient and unbowed. And Ukraine’s forces continue to impress the world with their skill and their grit.
Ukrainian forces are fending off Russia’s new offensive in the Kharkiv region, and holding strong on the frontlines in Ukraine’s east and south.
It has been 840 days since Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine. And Ukraine’s defenders have inflicted staggering losses on the Russian invaders.
Since Putin’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, at least 350,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded. Ukrainian forces have sunk, destroyed, or damaged 24 Russian vessels in the Black Sea. And since September of last year — just before the Kremlin began its renewed offensive — Russia has lost more than 2,600 combat vehicles across the front lines in Ukraine. As Russian invaders moved forward west of Avdiivka, they lost more than 160 combat vehicles there in May alone.
So that’s just another reminder of the price that Russia has paid for Putin’s imperial ambitions. And it’s another reminder of Ukraine’s determination.
And make no mistake. Ukraine’s partners around the world have its back.
Now, it’s been nearly two months since President Biden signed the national-security supplemental. The United States is continuing to deliver urgently needed security assistance through more presidential drawdown packages. Since the supplemental became law, the United States has already delivered tens of thousands of artillery rounds, thousands of anti-tank mines, hundreds of GMLRS and anti-tank weapons, and more air-defense capabilities to help Ukraine repel Russian forces near Kharkiv.
President Biden also announced a new package of drawdown assistance that will provide Ukraine with more air-defense interceptors, armored vehicles, anti-tank weapons, and artillery systems and munitions.
I am proud that this Contact Group has committed more than 98 billion dollars in security assistance to Ukraine since February 2022. And this coalition continues to find innovative and sustainable ways to rush in critical capabilities to meet Ukraine’s most pressing needs.
Let me highlight just a few of them. I’m grateful to Sweden for announcing its largest military assistance package yet — worth approximately $1.23 billion. That includes two Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft, which will be critical for Ukraine’s long-range air surveillance.
I’m also grateful to our hosts in Belgium, who have committed to deliver 30 F-16 fighters to Ukraine by 2028, as well as an additional $1 billion in military aid this year.
And I’d like to thank Spain for its recent pledge of more air-defense missiles.
And so countries are moving at flank speed to get Ukraine the capabilities that it so urgently needs. And we must keep doing so. We must keep finding new solutions, especially for Ukraine’s air-defense challenges.
And we’ll continue to support Ukraine’s long-term security. And you can see that in Ukraine’s new bilateral security agreements with Belgium, Iceland, Norway, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden.
This Contact Group is also supporting Ukraine’s work to strengthen and modernize its forces for the long haul. The eight Capability Coalitions provide a practical, nimble mechanism for allies and partners to do just that. I’m grateful for the Coalition Leadership Group’s work to drive progress across each Capability Coalition. And just yesterday, the Coalition Leadership Group met to discuss the next steps to meet both Ukraine’s short-term needs and its long-term requirements.
And I look forward to hearing updates today from the drone coalition. The drone coalition is working to help Ukraine fend off Russian aggression today and deter Russian aggression tomorrow.
For its long-term security, Ukraine needs a robust, effective, and self-reliant defense industry. So the United States is working closely with this Contact Group to strengthen Ukraine’s defense industry and to foster joint projects.
Now, we’ve got a lot of work ahead. And fortunately, support for Ukraine is growing, and not waning.
In fact, I’m pleased to welcome Argentina as a new member. Minister Petri, I’m glad to have you with us.
Ladies and gentlemen, this is a critical moment. The stakes of this war are high. Ukraine’s survival is on the line. But so is all of our security. None of us would want to live in a world where Putin prevails. And we would all be less secure if tyrants think that they can trample borders and cow their neighbors.
So we’ve got a lot to do. But I am confident that this coalition will continue to rise to the challenge.
Again, thanks for being here today.
And with that, we’ll all pause for a moment while our friends in the media depart. Thank you.
The Kharkiv direction:
An army helicopter provides close air support for our warriors in the Kharkiv direction.
📹: 18th Army Aviation Brigade pic.twitter.com/YUiHHEYW5B
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 14, 2024
The Donetsk front:
/2. Russian T-72 in the crater was later destroyed https://t.co/4sePe3AOjT pic.twitter.com/gPMBsZtecp
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 14, 2024
The Marinka front:
46h Brigade repels yesterdays Russian attack on the Mariinka front.
“On June 13, the paratroopers of the 46th brigade repelled the largest enemy assault during the entire period of their work on the Mariinka front! The enemy used in total of 28 units of AFVs in assault… https://t.co/6cDlXOwnb8 pic.twitter.com/d41Qxf47JV
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 14, 2024
46h Brigade repels yesterdays Russian attack on the Mariinka front.
“On June 13, the paratroopers of the 46th brigade repelled the largest enemy assault during the entire period of their work on the Mariinka front! The enemy used in total of 28 units of AFVs in assault operations.
The results of the 13th turned out to be disappointing for the occupiers: our soldiers destroyed 13 units of armored vehicles, two dozens of Russians were killed, and 38 were injured”
Morozovsk air field, Rostov, Russia:
The first satellite imagery of the aftermath of tonight’s drone attack on the Russian military airfield in Morozovsk, Rostov region.
Reports regarding the attack – https://t.co/gisSqBemwH https://t.co/KDQ6QF013k— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 14, 2024
Morozovsk substation was the strike location https://t.co/sgjLwckyoV
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 14, 2024
At night there was a drone attack on the multiple regions of Russia. But the most reports were coming from Morozovsk, Rostov region.
Local residents heard explosions from the direction of the Morozovsk airfield. Several settlements in the area were left without electricity.
According to Russian claims “70 drones were intercepted in Rostov region” and 17 more in other regions.
That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
Villago Delenda Est
Vlad can, as always, go pound sand.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
John Revolta
NUTS!
-Gen. McAuliffe
tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat)
Thank you, Adam.
Any idea why Putin is calling for this now? If the goal of the cease fire is to achieve breathing room for Russia, what is happening internally that he needs time to deal with? Yet, the offer is so ridiculous that it’s difficult to even believe he was looking for breathing room.
West of the Rockies
@tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat):
Just a guess? Putin had to do something after the US just upped sanctions (even if it’s performative Putin nonsense).
Nukular Biskits
Interesting you should pick that Star Wars clip to characterize Putin’s “generous” offer.
I was thinking the exact same thing this morning when I first heard his terms on NPR’s “Morning Edition”.
SpaceUnit
Putin’s “peace proposal” is obviously in bad faith, but I see it as a sign of weakness nonetheless. He’s clearly not happy with the way things are going.
He just wants a break to regroup and rethink the strategy, to resupply and regain his footing, to rebuild the ranks. Fuck him.
tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat)
@West of the Rockies: I wondered about that. There’s also the giving of Russia’s frozen assets to Ukraine. Are we finally at a point where some of these financial levers will have a destabilizing impact on Putin’s regime? I hope so.
@SpaceUnit: Quite likely. If he’s feeling squeezed, we need to find ways to apply more pressure.
hrprogressive
So going after the Nordic Trio, too?
That seems…ill-advised?
SpaceUnit
@tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat):
Agree. No quarter. Of course, that kind of talk is pretty damn cheap when I’m nowhere near the war.
But I think Putin would love to put things on hold for a few months, hoping that his puppet can get back in the White House.
Bill Arnold
Putin’s offer reeks of desperation, while trying to present as overwhelmingly strong.
Ukraine has their actual peace plan.
I’d add 1000 tons of Russian gold, as symbolic punitive damages. (They have like 2000 tons, so they can spare 1000.)
Roberto el oso
My guess is that the timing of Putin’s proposal has more to do with an attempt to muddy the waters while the Switzerland conference is going on. In possible concert with the Chinese attempt to undercut it.
Roberto el oso
@Bill Arnold: Some of that gold is what Stalin snuck out of Spain during the Civil War, isn’t it? When it was recently reported that Iran had requested payment from Russia in gold for something or other that really jumped out at me, as an indication of both Russia’s desperation as well as Iran’s clear-eyed view of the true value of the ruble (sp?).
YY_Sima Qian
I think Putin is just trolling now. He is in no position to make demands that his forces do not have realistic chance of achieving on the battlefield.
YY_Sima Qian
@Roberto el oso: Putin’s offer is so transparently ridiculous & malicious that, if anything, undercuts the PRC’s (& Brazil’s & others’) posturing.
Beyond trying to prevent a collapse of the Russian position & an emergence of a pro-Western successor, I think the PRC’s maneuvering is mainly trying to consolidate its position in the ROW at the West’s expense (likewise w/ the War in Gaza), as opposed to helping Putin to achieve is maximalist aims.
Parfigliano
I remember some guy from Germany making a similiar offer 80 plus years ago. Accepting it really worked out well.
YY_Sima Qian
OT: Lest anyone thinks that only the U.S.’ geopolitical rivals engage in disinformation campaigns in damaging ways, or that making Great Power Competition the central organizing principle of policymaking (foreign & domestic) will not have all kinds of perverse consequences:
As I recall from the western MSM coverage at the time, it was not just the DOD psyops people throwing shade on Chinese vaccines.
YY_Sima Qian
A more lighthearted example of the perverse consequences of making securitized Great Power Competition the central organizing principle of policymaking:
Westyny
Thank you, Adam.
bjacques
@YY_Sima Qian: didn’t General Goddamnics give us the “Sergeant York” Division Air Defense gun in the 1980s, that had a shorter range than the Soviet Hinds it was meant to protect troops against?
I read earlier here at BJ Biden at least ended the Sinovac disinformation campaign.
YY_Sima Qian
@bjacques: The Reuters investigation does state that the Biden Administration ended the anti-vaccine disinformation (& it wasn’t just against Sinovac or just Chinese vaccines) in Spring of ‘21, though disinformation posts continued into the summer.
However, look at the concluding paragraphs. Senior Pentagon generals co time to advocate using disinformation, false narratives, & other subversive activities to try to undermine societal trust & foundations of government in the U.S.’ geopolitical rivals. What that will result in, as such efforts leak (as it already has), is undermining societal trust in all governments everywhere, which is exactly the outcome that reactionary chaos agents everywhere (Putin & the U.S. GOP 1st among them) seek, which may well align w/ the politics of some of the military brass. It will also invite the PRC to try to influence U.S. elections & inflame domestic political divisions much more deeply & energetically than it has to date.
YY_Sima Qian
@bjacques: BTW, “Sargent York” was just a procurement boondoggle, this disinformation campaign, & MSM coverage, did actual damage to global health. Although the DOD effort did not specifically target U.S. domestic population, surely the disinformation planted overseas eventually flowed back to the U.S. & fed into the anti-vaxx conspiracies, via the “free & open internet” & through the immigrant populations.
YY_Sima Qian
An interesting piece from Alexander Gabuev on what might be motivating Beijing:
I think he credits Beijing w/ greater ambition than evidence supports. As is obvious, conditions for serious peace or even ceasefire negotiations do not exists, since neither Ukraine nor especially Russia are currently interest, & there seem to be no overlap in the potential terms that either party might be willing to accept. So, for the time being, IMHO Beijkng is content to try to prevent Russia from being completely isolated, score whatever points it can score against DC in the Global South, & avoid ruptures in relations w/ the U.S. & especially the EU.
As for sanctions busting, if the EU cannot police the export from its member states to Russia via 3rd countries (Robin Brooks has been documenting on Twitter the 2 – 3 orders of magnitude increases in exports from most EU stated to Kyrgyzstan over the past 2 years), they are not going to have much success policing Chinese exports to Russia, directly or via 3rd countries. By now the PRC is quite adept at evading sanctions, having practiced w/ Iran & having had many of its corporations placed on sanctions lists for reasons both serious & spurious. A inevitable consequence of the over-reliance on sanctions as FP tool by DC over the past 3 decades, often as exercised in virtue signaling than as part of coherent strategies to compel & induce desirable behavior.
M Hall
“Maxim Kalashnikov, a Russian futurist…”
That means he is writing science fiction? Reading his piece above made me dizzy.
“The West clearly intends to carry out Operation Berlin Wall 2”
Who built the Berlin Wall? I thought it was the USSR, no? Yet the west is going to carry out the sequel?
And what is “Banderistan?”
And who are the “Great Russians?” And the “Little Russians?”
Somebody please help me understand.
bjacques
@YY_Sima Qian: my remark above was more about GD’s general incompetence, and the article highlights it, even when they’re doing evil.
Of course, it’s horrible what the DOD got up to, but a reckoning will probably never come.
As for Xi playing the Great Game, Russia with or without Putin will eventually have a go at China too, so humoring Putin now and stoking apathy in the Global South about Ukraine don’t bode well for stability in the long run, especially regarding global warming and climate disruption. Putin and his likely successors are nobody’s friends.
YY_Sima Qian
@YY_Sima Qian: I think Ryan Hass at Brookings has the right take on the FA article by Gabuev;
YY_Sima Qian
@bjacques: As nuclear powers, no versions of Russia will “have a go” at the PRC (as long as the PRC stays in one piece), just like the PRC will not “have a go” at the Russia Far East. Fortunately for the PRC, I don’t think Russian GRU & FSB has the Chinese cultural fluency to mount the kind of influence operations they have been successful at in Europe & the U.S.
bjacques
@YY_Sima Qian: I’m sure you’re right, and I honestly doubt Russia will ever have the capacity to do anything serious, but I still reckon they’d try something stupid anyway. It’s who they are.
YY_Sima Qian
@bjacques: Absolutely, Putinist Russia is a chaos agent, & its actions tend to undermine PRC strategy of modifying the international order (but order nonetheless) to one favoring its pretogatives, or avoiding confrontation w/ the U.S. or especially the EU. However, Beijing has been pretty adept at playing the cynical opportunist to take maximum advantage whatever the situation.
wjca
Zelenskyy should cheerfully offer Putin a ceasefire, requiring only that Russia withdraws from all of Ukraine (including Crimea!), returns all Ukrainian children kidnapped by Russia, places in escrow funds to rebuild all Ukrainian infrastructure and Ukrainian cities, villages, etc. that it has damaged or destroyed, funds demining of every part of Ukraine where Russian troops have ever been, and turns over Putin and the entire Russian general staff for trial for war crimes.
Seems at least equally reasonable.
YY_Sima Qian
@wjca: That is far more reasonable, though unfortunately not much more realistic for the time being.
wjca
@YY_Sima Qian:
It does have the virtue that it might shift the media narrative to “Russia rejects Ukrainian peace offer “. Which might be useful, and definitely would be amusing.
Andrya
@M Hall: Stepan Bandera (Wikipedia link) was a far-right, violent Ukrainian nationalist who allied with Nazi Germany during WW2. The russians like to pretend that all Ukrainians who want an independent country are followers of Bandera. It’s part of the basis for their claim that Ukraine is run by Nazis.