(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing fine. Her next chemo treatment is tomorrow, which will be treatment three of round two. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donation.
Second, from now on I will only comment in my own update posts. This way we can avoid a repeat of last night and this morning. Everyone is, of course, welcome to comment here regarding the war in Ukraine or related matters or anything else as I do make them open threads.
The Russians have gone back to the aerial glide bombing of Kharkiv:
Explosion reported in Kharkiv! Right now, the city is under russian glide bomb attack!
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) June 16, 2024
And it is the only region of Ukraine that is currently under air raid alert.
President Zelenskyy addressed the second plenary session of the Global Peace Summit today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Address by the President of Ukraine at the Second Plenary Session of the Global Peace Summit
16 June 2024 – 16:21
Ladies and gentlemen!
Today the world sees that real diplomacy is not just about words, it is about steps – steps that need to be taken to fix a situation.
We have begun to develop such steps, and this is the practical meaning of the Peace Summit.
So, the format of the Summit is absolutely working, and I thank you all for that.
Dear colleagues!
All those present!
Now we see that we all made the right choice – the choice of two security and one humanitarian points to start moving towards the restoration of full security and a just peace. The panel on radiation and nuclear safety, the panel on food security and the humanitarian panel dedicated to the release of prisoners and deportees, including thousands of children abducted by Russia from the occupied territory of Ukraine – this dialogue has taken place, and it is obvious that it can result in absolutely practical steps.
We are all worldwide equally interested to ensure that there is no danger to nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities. I am grateful to the participants of the Peace Summit for fully understanding this and recognizing the need to restore full security to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which was captured by Russian troops and turned into a foothold for war. I would also like to thank every leader and every country that supports our efforts to secure maritime navigation and preserve the free flow of food. I want to emphasize that food security is critical not only for the countries of the Global South, but literally for every country in the world, because it determines the price of life, and any catastrophic disruption of the food market is a direct path to chaos. Unfortunately, Russia has too often tried to push the world down this road to destabilization and chaos, and so now we all need to unite as much as possible to guarantee every family in the world, every person the right to food and protection from price chaos. And the third point – I am especially grateful for this – there was a panel on the release of people who are now in Russian captivity. We are talking about a significant number of people, and we must bring each and every one of them home. Civilian hostages of Russia, children who were kidnapped from our land and scattered across the territory of Russia, and of course warriors. Every day in captivity is terrible, and we have to free thousands of people who have had years of their lives taken away, who are being tortured, who are being lied to – who are told that no one is waiting for them… Imagine what a personal catastrophe this is for each such person, for each such child in captivity. We have to free them. All of them.
So, President Pavel and all the participants of the panel on nuclear safety – thank you. President Ruto and all the panelists on food security – thank you. Prime Minister Trudeau and all the participants of the humanitarian panel on the release of people from captivity – thank you all.
I hope that we can achieve results as soon as possible.
And it is exactly these and other similar practical steps to restore security and peace that will prove to everyone in the world that the UN Charter can be restored to full effectiveness – all the principles and purposes of the UN Charter.
Thank you very much!
Glory to Ukraine!
And here is his statement to the media. Video followed by English transcript.
Statement by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy During a Meeting with Media Representatives Following the Global Peace Summit
16 June 2024 – 16:26
Madame President of Switzerland!
Mr. President of Chile!
Madame President of the European Commission!
Mr. Prime Minister of Canada!
Mr. President of Ghana!
And everyone who really wants the war to end.
I thank all the participants of the First Peace Summit for taking the first steps towards peace together.
We are responding to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine not only with a full-scale defense of human life, but also with full-scale diplomacy. These days united one hundred and one countries and international organizations, – big success for Ukraine and for all partners, – and our fair objective is to get all countries of the world to join this noble cause.
Previous political generations have left us the UN Charter as a basis for the cooperation of peoples. We will pass to the next generations an effective mechanism to implement the UN Charter. And the communiqué adopted at the Summit these days fully reflects our intention, and remains open for accession by everyone who respects the UN Charter.
It’s important that all participants of the Summit supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity because there will be no lasting peace without territorial integrity.
The three challenges have been analyzed in detail at the First Peace Summit – nuclear safety, food security and the release of prisoners and deportees, including thousands of children abducted by Russia. And now, after the Summit, we proposed and agreed to continue our joint work at a more technical level – at the level of advisers and ministers in the format of special meetings under the leadership or co-leadership of countries. Each step toward a just peace has attracted the attention of certain groups of Summit participants and countries that have not yet joined but are interested in peace. And we agreed to start to work in special after-Summit-groups on specific ideas, proposals, and developments that can restore security in various aspects. Exactly as it worked at the level of advisors during the preparation of the First Peace Summit. We already have preliminary agreements with countries such as France, Czechia, Türkiye, Kenya, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Norway, Poland, Canada, Qatar, Chile, Ghana, Finland, the Netherlands, Germany, the United Kingdom – to host the work of the groups, to lead and co-lead. And we invite all countries that recognize the binding nature of the UN Charter as the basis for the cooperation of nations to participate in groups and express their ideas and proposals. I am confident that together we will ensure the result. The First and Second Peace Summits should unite our joint work on the details of peace. We are at war, and we don’t have time for prolonged work – moving to peace means acting fast, preparations will take months not years.
So, when the action plans for peace are ready, and when every step is worked out, the path will be opened for the Second Peace Summit, and thus for ending this war – for a just and lasting peace. We already have countries who indicated their interest to host the Second Peace Summit, and we started talks with them. I am confident that the choice will have truly global significance.
And I am grateful for everyone who helps.
Thank you so much!
Слава Україні!
The second Peace Summit will be held in months, not years, — Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Main points of the joint communiqué of the Peace Summit:
▪️ Ukrainian NPPs and facilities, including Zaporizhzhia NPP, must be operated safely and securely under the full sovereign control of… https://t.co/pNTKSRtaVL pic.twitter.com/U5WQ2bC35F
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 16, 2024
The second Peace Summit will be held in months, not years, — Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Main points of the joint communiqué of the Peace Summit:
▪️ Ukrainian NPPs and facilities, including Zaporizhzhia NPP, must be operated safely and securely under the full sovereign control of Ukraine, in compliance with the IAEA principles and under its supervision. Any threat or use of nuclear weapons in the context of war in Ukraine is unacceptable.
▪️ Ukrainian agricultural products should be supplied safely and freely to interested third countries.
▪️ Full exchange of all prisoners of war. All deported and illegally displaced Ukrainian children, as well as other illegally detained civilians, must be returned to Ukraine.
“We receive help. Is it enough to win? No. Is the help coming late? Yes, it is. Will these packages be strengthened? We are working on it,” – President Zelenskyy. https://t.co/yYJYTkfeEM pic.twitter.com/7xXITuVyyH
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 16, 2024
Here’s the full text of the communique:
Joint Communiqué on a Peace Framework
16 June 2024 – 15:31
HIGH-LEVEL SUMMIT ON PEACE FOR UKRAINE
Joint Communiqué on a Peace Framework
Switzerland, 15-16 June 2024
The ongoing war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine continues to cause large-scale human suffering and destruction, and to create risks and crises with global repercussions for the world. We gathered in Switzerland on 15-16 June 2024 to enhance a high-level dialogue on pathways towards a comprehensive, just and lasting peace for Ukraine. We reiterated resolutions A/RES/ES-11/1 and A/RES/ES-11/6 adopted at the UN General Assembly and underscored our commitment to upholding International Law including the United Nations Charter.
This Summit was built on the previous discussions that have taken place based on Ukraine’s Peace Formula and other peace proposals which are in line with international law, including the United Nations Charter.
We deeply appreciate Switzerland’s hospitality and its initiative to host the High-Level Summit as expression of its firm commitment to promoting international peace and security.
We had a fruitful, comprehensive and constructive exchange of various views on pathways towards a framework for a comprehensive, just and lasting peace, based on international law, including the United Nations Charter. In particular, we reaffirm our commitment to refraining from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, the principles of sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of all states, including Ukraine, within their internationally recognized borders, including territorial waters, and the resolution of disputes through peaceful means as principles of international law.
We, furthermore, have a common vision on the following crucial aspects:
1) Firstly, any use of nuclear energy and nuclear installations must be safe, secured, safe-guarded and environmentally sound. Ukrainian nuclear power plants and installations, including Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, must operate safely and securely under full sovereign control of Ukraine and in line with IAEA principles and under its supervision.
Any threat or use of nuclear weapons in the context of the ongoing war against Ukraine is inadmissible.
2) Secondly, global food security depends on uninterrupted manufacturing and supply of food products. In this regard, free, full and safe commercial navigation, as well as access to sea ports in the Black and Azov Seas, are critical. Attacks on merchant ships in ports and along the entire route, as well as against civilian ports and civilian port infrastructure, are unacceptable.
Food security must not be weaponized in any way. Ukrainian agricultural products should be securely and freely provided to interested third countries.
3) Thirdly, all prisoners of war must be released by complete exchange. All deported and unlawfully displaced Ukrainian children, and all other Ukrainian civilians who were unlawfully detained, must be returned to Ukraine.
We believe that reaching peace requires the involvement of and dialogue between all parties. We, therefore, decided to undertake concrete steps in the future in the above-mentioned areas with further engagement of the representatives of all parties.
The United Nations Charter, including the principles of respect for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all states, can and will serve as a basis in achieving a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine.
Apparently there was an issue with the Ukrainian language translation of Italian President Meloni’s speech.
Friends,
As some of you have pointed out in the comments, the translation of Giorgia Meloni’s words from English to Ukrainian has been incorrect.
Here is the correct version and its differences with the Ukrainian translation by @MyLordBebo.
Sorry for the confusion. I think… https://t.co/AQ3F4WHIMb pic.twitter.com/Hy2MwLPnwC
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 16, 2024
Friends,
As some of you have pointed out in the comments, the translation of Giorgia Meloni’s words from English to Ukrainian has been incorrect.
Here is the correct version and its differences with the Ukrainian translation by @MyLordBebo .
Sorry for the confusion. I think the interpreter must have been translating from the heart and has put the deepest wish of all Ukrainians into Prime Minister Meloni’s statement.
Here is the full video of President Meloni’s remarks followed by the English transcript from the Italian government’s own website.
President Meloni’s speech at the Summit on Peace in Ukraine
Sunday, 16 June 2024
Dear Viola, dear Volodymyr, colleagues,
844 days have passed since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression. 844 days of heroic Ukrainian resistance and of an unwavering unity which never failed to support the Ukrainian people.
Defending Ukraine means defending that system of rules that holds the international community together and protects every Nation. If Ukraine had not been able to count on our support and therefore would have been forced to surrender, today we would not be here to discuss the minimum conditions for a negotiation. We would be just discussing the invasion of a sovereign state and we can all imagine with what consequences.
Dear colleagues,
Peace does not mean surrender – as President Putin seems to suggest with his latest declarations. It does not. Confusing peace with subjugation would set a dangerous precedent for everyone. Today’s Conference represents a bold initiative, which dismantles certain narratives, or propaganda. No one can question the absolute importance of the three crucial topics of global interest which have been discussed today – nuclear safety, food security and the human dimension, in particular the return of displaced children. They matter to us all, and I think – also from today’s discussion – that there is much we can build from here.Italy has always done its part, and it does not intend to walk away. However, we need to join all our possible efforts, in order to help Ukraine look towards the future. That’s exactly what we did at the G7 Summit under the Italian Presidency, where we just reached an agreement to make approximately USD 50 billion of additional financial support available to Kyiv by the end of the year, leveraging the extraordinary revenues of the immobilized Russian sovereign assets. This is an extremely significant achievement, the result of great teamwork done by the G7 leaders.
Dear Volodymyr, I am here to tell you that you can continue to count on us, for as long as it takes. We will continue every possible effort to keep all the international partners engaged, as they are also suffering from the global consequences of this conflict. We intend to do everything in our possibilities to transform a future of peace and freedom for Ukraine into a reality.
Thank you.
Essentially, the peace summit in Switzerland has been the largest Ukrainian diplomatic effort in its history.
In February 2022, half of the world was simply burying us alive and trying to guess whether Kyiv will fall within 48 or 72 hours.
In June 2024, 80 nations and four… pic.twitter.com/DS9sdU6Hm2
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 16, 2024
Essentially, the peace summit in Switzerland has been the largest Ukrainian diplomatic effort in its history.
In February 2022, half of the world was simply burying us alive and trying to guess whether Kyiv will fall within 48 or 72 hours.
In June 2024, 80 nations and four major international organizations sign on to a peace initiative that stands for nothing but Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, freedom of navigation, control over its own nuclear power facility, an all-out prisoner swap, and an end to the largest European war since WWII incited by Russia – as opposed to what Putin wants, with further territorial grabs, with Ukraine’s military disarmament, with more and more appeasement, and with Ukraine being left behind defenseless to Putin’s mercy.
The price:
This is how Musia, a cat taken from the war zone, reacts to thunder and rain.
📹: helena_quail / TikTok pic.twitter.com/gTHGrTXDLo
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 16, 2024
The reason:
Ukrainian men are fighting for a bright future for their children.
Thank you for your service.
Happy Father’s Day!📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/6b3kiGDjSz
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 16, 2024
Kyiv:
🏳️🌈🇺🇦 #Pride returned to Kyiv for the 1st time since the full-scale invasion. A @lgbtmilitary convoy proudly joined.
This year’s slogans called for not only equal rights but also #ArmUkraineNow & #FreeAzovstalDefenders.
To protect the rights of LGBTIQ+ Ukrainians, defeating… pic.twitter.com/HooDINdlVl
— Inna Sovsun (@InnaSovsun) June 16, 2024
🏳️🌈🇺🇦 #Pride returned to Kyiv for the 1st time since the full-scale invasion. A @lgbtmilitary convoy proudly joined.
This year’s slogans called for not only equal rights but also #ArmUkraineNow & #FreeAzovstalDefenders.
To protect the rights of LGBTIQ+ Ukrainians, defeating homophobic #Russia is essential.
Mariinka:
Another russian failed attack in the Mariinka direction.
The occupiers used 28 pieces of armored equipment, and 13 of them were torn to pieces by 🇺🇦 warriors.📹: 46th Airmobile Brigade pic.twitter.com/BGVRYOSfzh
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 16, 2024
Avdiivka front:
Russian assault group on top of BRDM-2M destroyed by drone operators of ‘Shadow’ unit on the Avdiivka front. https://t.co/cDGwnTFTJs pic.twitter.com/jYJ6NJkkkT
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 16, 2024
Rostov on Don, Russia:
Okay, incarcerated ISIS militants initiated a mutiny in a jail in Russia’s Rostov-on-Don and took several hostages from among their guards.
It’s an ongoing story.
Putin’s disgraced “secret services”, amid their yet another fuckup, once again detecting the “Ukrainian trace” in…
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 16, 2024
Okay, incarcerated ISIS militants initiated a mutiny in a jail in Russia’s Rostov-on-Don and took several hostages from among their guards.
It’s an ongoing story.
Putin’s disgraced “secret services”, amid their yet another fuckup, once again detecting the “Ukrainian trace” in 3….2….1…
And once again Twitter/X won’t generate an embed code for the second tweet in the thread with the video. But here’s Dmitri’s tweet of it:
⚡️Rostov-on-Don, Russia: A group of prisoners captures hostages in a pre-trial detention center.
In Rostov-on-Don, prisoners in one of the cells took two guards hostage. According to Baza, they call themselves members of the Islamic State and demand weapons and the opportunity… pic.twitter.com/5CpMZY6kfR
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) June 16, 2024
⚡️Rostov-on-Don, Russia: A group of prisoners captures hostages in a pre-trial detention center.
In Rostov-on-Don, prisoners in one of the cells took two guards hostage. According to Baza, they call themselves members of the Islamic State and demand weapons and the opportunity to be released.
Curiously, the southern city of Rostov was temporarily liberated by Wagner forces in June 2023.
Some information about the men who captured a pre-trial detention centre in Rostov, according to Russian sources.
At least six prisoners took prison employees hostage in Rostov-on-Don. Two of them were convicted under Article 205.5, Part 2 “Terrorism”), they managed somehow to… pic.twitter.com/8V68Tq0Gzh
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) June 16, 2024
Some information about the men who captured a pre-trial detention centre in Rostov, according to Russian sources.
At least six prisoners took prison employees hostage in Rostov-on-Don. Two of them were convicted under Article 205.5, Part 2 “Terrorism”), they managed somehow to knock the bars out in their cells and take hostages.
At least three were convicted in December 2023 for participation in ISIS (they planned to attack the building of the Supreme Court of the Karachay-Cherkess Republic). They were all sentenced to 18+ years in prison.
You’ll notice a fully bearded, well fed, individual wearing an ISIS headband holding a knife and seated next to a Russian hostage. I know a few things about Russian prisons. Let’s leave aside the brutality of the prisoner vory hierarchy, where exactly did this guy get the ISIS headband? Why is he so well fed? Why does he still have his beard?
There are strange details and inconsistencies with the Russian official version of what happened in Rostov prison.
Ukrainian prisoners of war were held in that prison, and the hands of those “killed in the assault” were handcuffed.
The prisoners who took hostages in pre-trial… https://t.co/K7lLJCxQ5W pic.twitter.com/Y1symMAA78
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 16, 2024
There are strange details and inconsistencies with the Russian official version of what happened in Rostov prison.
Ukrainian prisoners of war were held in that prison, and the hands of those “killed in the assault” were handcuffed.
The prisoners who took hostages in pre-trial detention center No. 1 were killed during the storming, Russian Federal Penitentiary Service says. Two of them were handcuffed (photo 1, 2). Olga Romanova, founder of the “Russia Behind Bars” foundation, shared about the oddities and inconsistencies in the case.
▪️ The capture took place at night, Romanova says. “They somehow simultaneously freed themselves from several cells. The cellmates did not raise the alarm. They had communication, they had mobile phones.”
▪️ On Sunday night, for some reason, a high-ranking chief Lt. Col. Aleksandr Bogma, head of the operational department of the regional Federal Penitentiary Service, was in the detention center. He became one of the hostages (photo 3). “Bogma doesn’t even work there, what was he doing in the pre-trial detention center during a weekend night?”
▪️ Ukrainian prisoners of war are held in pre-trial detention center-1. “Some of them are also accused on terrorist articles. I wouldn’t be surprised if a “Ukrainian trace” is found in the ISIS riot by tonight, as it was after the terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall.
I would not be surprised if some of the survivors of the storming were killed.” TASS, citing the authorities, has already reported that the hostage-taking had been prepared for months and could have been coordinated from outside.
Russian police executed handcuffed terrorists who escaped the prison in Rostov https://t.co/mfZz9kHnHa
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) June 16, 2024
The three prisoners who took hostages in Rostov-on-Don were previously arrested at the end of 2023. This is footage of their detention.
It took them just 6 months to prepare for the prison escape operation and to take hostages.
Complete failure on behalf of Russian authorities… pic.twitter.com/pxQTU0ZCbx
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) June 16, 2024
The three prisoners who took hostages in Rostov-on-Don were previously arrested at the end of 2023. This is footage of their detention.
It took them just 6 months to prepare for the prison escape operation and to take hostages.
Complete failure on behalf of Russian authorities to prevent such an incident. The illegal war is more important.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
First, some adjacent material:
This is what we’re fighting for. pic.twitter.com/PcrKkQxh0L
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 16, 2024
And now a message from Patron:
This is Artem Posokh. We’ve been helping him with his treatment for two years now. And now he has received a wonderful new prosthetic. Look at him! He’s happy. Thank you very much ❤️
We have almost covered the cost of Artem’s prosthetic. But we still have three sappers who need… pic.twitter.com/8GkPRmpuRy— Patron (@PatronDsns) June 16, 2024
This is Artem Posokh. We’ve been helping him with his treatment for two years now. And now he has received a wonderful new prosthetic. Look at him! He’s happy. Thank you very much ❤️
We have almost covered the cost of Artem’s prosthetic. But we still have three sappers who need prosthetics, which will cost about $170,000. I’ve never seen that much money, but we can raise it.https://paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=279APN5ES74GE
Or just [email protected]
Open thread!
japa21
Thanks, Adam. I don’t care if you comment on other threads. Just a thought though. The opposite of “hopium” is “nohopium”. To say something like, “That’s good news, but I am not sure it will make that much of a difference” is a lot better than saying, “Won’t make any difference, trust me..”
Your knowledge of the situation is obviously deep and broad, a rarity. And I enjoy reading it.
TBone
Thank you for keeping us well informed every single day. It’s not easy to merely read about it, and I can’t imagine how hard it is to be immersed in it.
Adam L Silverman
@japa21: @TBone: You’re both most welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@japa21: It is very clear that I’m out of synch with most of the rest of this place. Have been for a long time. The easiest way to resolve the problem is to just stick to the updates.
japa21
@Adam L Silverman: Understand. Just want to let you know I appreciate your opinions even when I disagree.
Adam L Silverman
@japa21: Thank you.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Jay
I don’t remember who said it, but somebody posted that the “Terrorist Prison Break/Hostage Taking” looks from the timing, coverage and inconsistencies like an FSB information operation to take the “Peace Summit” out of the news.
twbrandt
Adam, first of all, thank you so much for all the work you put into these posts on Ukraine. They are a terrific reality check.
Secondly, I value your insights into domestic politics, even if I don’t always agree with them. It’s useful for me to have my views challenged – it helps to sharpen my thinking. I’m sorry the Florida thread went off the rails.
hrprogressive
Adam’s one of the only ones calling things like it is, instead of how “Resistance Twitter” wishes it was.
I haven’t seen him come out and say, explicitly, “We’re Completely Fucked”, but for anyone who doesn’t think that, I don’t understand how anyone can not objectively look at the successes the worldwide Fascist movement has been having and the lack or urgency from the rest of the so-called “defenders of democracy” and think that things are going well.
Short of a worldwide “French Revolution” against Our Gilded Betters in the shareholders that have accumulated all the wealth, the politicians beholden to them instead of their citizens, and all of the right wing groups who can’t wait to subjugate and annihilate anyone who isn’t exactly like them…
I don’t understand how anyone could actually have any “hope” / “hopium” left.
Anyway.
Since that’s not what anyone wants to hear, whether from an expert like Adam or an armchair quarterback nobody like me, I’ll shut my trap.
Andrya
Adam- you aren’t as out of sync with your readers as you apparently think you are. I have been very much afraid for several years that the US becoming a managed democracy like Hungary, where elections don’t matter because only one side can win. The last few years have only increased my fears, including the fact that fear of political violence is now a significant factor in US politics. I suspect that there are many others, like me, who are relieved that someone (you) is sounding the alarm.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: I think you should continue to post in other threads, as your perspective is a valuable & important one, even if not in the majority & not always welcome.
The differences are not even that hard to reconcile. We all believe that Biden must win the next elections, & Ds must have control of at least one chamber of Congress. For some of us, it is merely a rear guard action that must be fought & won to prevent things from getting much worse much more quickly, but victory in Nov. alone will not meaningfully alter the underlying deteriorating dynamics in U.S. domestic politics or the longstanding forces driving these dynamics. Others want to focus on that next battle & do not want any distractions that might compromise our chances of winning it.
I will say that coming up on you long missives about the nature of US domestic politics was a rude shock the 1st time, but they also crystallized for me certain inchoate suspicions & feelings I’ve had for a while myself. These realization also made me appreciate the AA voices past & present that I had thought as too radical for my taste, having internalized certain “White Liberal” sensibilities duringf the 90s & 00s.
Soprano2
@hrprogressive: I’m not part of “Resistance Twitter”. I understand these things aren’t good, and that the U.S. is in danger of becoming a fake democracy if TCFG wins in November. I’ll tell anyone who wants to listen that R’s want the U.S. to be a fake democracy like Hungary; they’re open about it! I do disagree that “we’re all fucked, might as well give up, there is no hope” is not a good attitude to have. I am interested in strategies short of a shooting civil war.
Andrya
@Soprano2: I don’t think that Adam, or any of us in the “dire threat to democracy” contingent, are advocating giving up. Quite the contrary- our idea is to give everything we can to the desperately important task of preserving democracy. To quote Abraham Lincoln “so that government of the people, by the people, and for the people shall not perish from the earth”.
YY_Sima Qian
@Soprano2: Electing more, & more importantly, better Ds remains the main strategy I think. Even more importantly, push the elected Ds to adopt more social democratic & left wing policies domestically & internationally, & push them to drop their slavish institutionalism & start doing everything w/in the bounds of law to constrain, undermine & overcome Rs’ legislative maneuvering & gridlock. There has been a building anti-establishment/populist wave across the world since the GFC. That can be good if the reactionary right wing has been the establishment for a long time (the UK, India, Japan), but less so if it has been the centrists or center-right (as we have already seen in Italy & Sweden). Bland & technocratic centrism will not be viable in this environment, the center will not hold for long (see Macron in France, the SPD & Merkel’s CDU in Germany). Either the Progressive Left or the Reactionary Right will benefit from the anti-establishment turn.
Support efforts to defund the PDs, defang the police unions, & reform law enforcement, one city/county at a time, & slowly make it mainstream. Maintain vigilance on the reactionary tendencies of federal law enforcement & elements of the military, & call out every bad act to media & social media & not let them fade into obscurity.
Even in illiberal democracies the reactionary forces can sometimes be defeated (see Poland), or would be autocrats humbled by underwhelming performance (see India), so don’t give up on local elections even if you live in one of the R dominated illiberal states. Seize every brief window of opportunity where the Ds are in power to enact as much change as possible, stop worrying about blow back from the queazy center & or maintaining appearances for institutional propriety’s sake.
Or, one might start w/ reading more heterodox voices (such as Adam here) to 1st gain a clear understanding of the challenges we face. Don’t get distracted by the “dirtbag” Left, there are plenty of serious Lefty voices for both domestic & foreign policies whose prescriptions might actually have a chance of starting to change some of that underlying dynamics. Then one might start to realize how the domestic (economic nationalism) & foreign policies (Great Power Competition) increasingly in vogue among D mainstream merely create & exacerbate conditions more favorable to the reactionaries & nativists, that is a race to the bottom that the Ds will not be able to win, nor should it try. Cold War Liberalism is not an example to follow, since that excused, enabled & whitewashed all kinds of repressive policies domestically, & militarism internationally.
Finally, be prepared for the possibility of the current low intensity civil war turning hot (or hotter, as Adam prefers), if everything above fails, or the above succeeds but the reactionaries refuse to concede defeat (which is what happened at the onset of the American Civil War).
O. Felix Culpa
@Andrya:
I think virtually everyone on this blog is in the in the “dire threat to democracy” contingent. To me, the question is what can we do about our real and present danger? Are there any [non-violent] options available to us to push it back? If so, what are they? How do we strengthen and encourage one another to do those things? That’s what’s needed, IMO. Positive proposals on what the fuck can we do under the current very worrying circumstances.
@YY_Sima Qian: Thanks for your post.
ETA: One of the great challenges on the personal and collective levels is being clear-eyed about the challenges we face, while avoiding the paralysis of despair. We have different modalities of being on this blog. Some tend to the optimistic and think they are the realists, and others tend to the pessimistic and think they are the realists. It might be more productive to figure out what we can do to get the best possible outcome given systemic barriers and really evil people arrayed against us, rather than fighting over who is The True Realist.
Gotta go. Foster kitten–aka The Terrorist–is attacking my ankles.
Torrey
@Andrya:
This is a very important point, and I wanted to piggy-back on it, along with japa21’s comment at #1. It’s not just what you say, but how you say it. Presentation of information (aka rhetoric) really does have an effect. I’ve noticed that, if you tell some people that a task is impossible and they’re not good enough to even be thinking about trying it, it just motivates them to roll up their sleeves and prove you’re wrong. (This seems to be a fairly common response among those who have spent time in the military, as well as those who have participated in certain sports, and it’s interesting to note that a lot of training is done that way in those contexts.) But that same kind of talk not only fails to motivate other people but actually suppresses any motivation they have: if it’s hopeless, if we’re screwed, let’s not waste our time arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, trying to teach our pet pigs to fly, or the metaphor of your choice.
Japa21’s point stands.
O. Felix Culpa
@Torrey: Well said. Now back to Terrorist (kitten) wrangling.
jackmac
I was late to Adam’s Saturday update (prompted by his comment above). It was a starkly pessimistic, depressing yet insightful perspective on the state of the U.S.
And he’s NOT wrong.
It’s easy to feel smug in the strong blue state where I reside and think that it can’t happen here. But it can and we’re ultimately threatened too. Maybe not immediately, but the trend lines nationally are quite discouraging and so much of the country is asleep.
I want to be wrong. Of course I’ll vote in November and I hope there are enough people who see the dangers and give Trump and his GOP ass kissers an epic beat-down in November.
In the meantime, thanks for all you do Adam. Your reporting and perspectives on Ukraine and back here at home are valuable and appreciated.
ColoradoGuy
I can see why Adam’s post about the de facto “managed democracy” of Florida hit a nerve, especially for the grim implications for the direction of national politics.
For most of its history, the Confederate and post-Confederate South has been a single-party oligarchy. The 1965 to 1995 period was simply the oligarchy switching from one party to the other … and taking over the R’s from the inside, with assistance from Newt Gingrich, Rupert Murdoch, and Rush Limbaugh.
However … there are forces pulling in the other direction. Colorado used to be a hard-core rural right-wing state, the same as the states that surround it. Now it is very different, a more libertarian-flavored version of the West Coast. This is also happening in some other states, slowly and under the radar. Here, it took a generation, but it has happened.
YY_Sima Qian
@ColoradoGuy: I don’t think the long term trends favor the reactionaries, but those kinds of dynamics are exactly what pushed the Confederate States to ignite the American Civil War.
Cathie from Canada
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks for everything you do here. I don’t comment often but I appreciate every update plus your political insights in general.
YY_Sima Qian
@Torrey: +1
Shalimar
@Adam L Silverman: There is nothing wrong with being out of sync. You’re among almost all friends here. Where you go over the line is treating this like an argument you have to win each time. The world is a depressing place, but there is no prize for being the person who spreads that depression to the most other people.
Andrya
@Torrey: @O. Felix Culpa: Obviously, we work and give credit $$ to the extent we can afford to elect Democrats. But equally important, and not often mentioned=. I think we need to start demanding much more aggressive (in a good way) behavior from our Democratic elected officials. Who all too often seem to think its ok to bring a smurf bat or a water pistol it a machine gun fight.
Case in point- the 6-3 Supreme Court is increasingly ruling by decree , finding that every item on the conservative policy wish list is (surprise, surprise!) required by the constitution. Yet, both the president and Democrats in congress treat expanding the court as outside the realm of possible discussion. But reality is, that something has to be done about the Court- if it continues to override Congress and the President on issues that have nothing to do with the constitution (student loan forgiveness? unconstitutional? really?) our elections won’t matter because SCOTUS will lake all policy decisions.
For anyone interested I’d also recommend listening to Timothy Snyder series of very short YouTube videos: “On Tyranny: 20 Lessons from the 20th Century”.
hrprogressive
@Soprano2:
The thing is, the only solutions I keep seeing from “the internet” seems to be the repeated mantra of “Vote Blue, No Matter Who!!!” without any further instruction as to why, or even advocating for Democratic candidates who actually give a shit about trying to fix our broken system, hold criminals accountable, and restore and strengthen the rights of the citizens.
I do legitimately hope the country gets it right in 5 months because if we don’t, the consequences likely will be “shooting civil war” dire, eventually.
I don’t particularly *want* that level of violent conflict, I would prefer we avoid it at all costs.
But things are bad for so many people. The GOP have made their Fascist intent clear, and unfortunately, the modern Democratic Party writ large hasn’t elucidated the correct level of alarm about what happens if the GOP wins, and/or what the Dems are gonna do to, you know, fix the fucking problems this country is facing.
I have a pragmatism about Democrats. I would prefer much more progressive politicians than the generally corpro-friendly ones inhabiting the Party now.
But a lot of others don’t have that same level of pragmatism, and that, moreso than anything, is what scares the shit out of me.
The Fascist Republican Party is a minority. Much as they like to think they are some anointed “Silent Majority”, they absolutely are not.
But so many people in this country feel left behind, at best, or betrayed at worst, by the only viable alternative that I worry too many of those people might not “do the right thing” in November.
I hope they do. I really do.
But I am well aware of where I think we’re headed if they don’t. And too many liberals/progressives/Democrats don’t seem willing to acknowledge or admit that, and time is running out to open ones eyes.
Chris
I have no idea what happened last night and by the sound of it, I’m better off that way. What I will say is that this blog commentariat’s tendency to swamp anyone perceived as expressing too much negativity with admonitions to turn that frown upside down because despair is counterrevolutionary is by far its shittiest trait, and has been for a long time. It’s been enough to make me quit the place for years not too long after Trump’s election, and for the most part that crap wasn’t even being directed at me. There’s a lot to be said for keeping morale up, but this blog badly needs somebody voicing what Adam does, and would be a lot worse off without him.
Librarian
I was shocked at Adam’s comment. Change is always possible. There have been states like Wisconsin which once looked as hopeless as Florida does now, but they changed. There have been signs that people are starting to get tired of DeSantis and his bullshit. To say that Florida can’t change is ridiculous.
Chris
@Torrey:
Having dunked on the blog in the last post, I’ll go in the other direction and say that the fact that it consistently gives you something to do, even if it’s as simple as donations to this or that campaign, is one of its biggest assets. One or two commenters at LGM have been asking for a similar thing there for months, to no avail, and the experience suffers from it.
Read a WWII general’s autobiography not long ago, who spent some time dwelling on the work involved in getting an army at rock bottom to turn itself around. One of his points is that you need to convince your men that they can turn it around, and then you need to give them something to do that makes them feel that they’re meaningfully contributing to turning it around; that rebuilds your morale and sets the stage for what comes next. A blog is hardly an army, but I’d say that’s one of the better points of this place: if gives you an outlet that isn’t just talking about how much shit you’re in.
HumboldtBlue
Ukrainian ingenuity.
Ukrainian New Weapons. Ground Vehicle D-21-11: Killer Robot, MedEvac and Frontline Delivery System
dimmsdale
Frankly, these posts of Adam’s are the only ones on the entire site that I have a lot of time for these days, due to the urgency of the Ukrainian situation, so with the comments above referencing stuff Adam said about our domestic politics and the responses he got, I had to (HAD to?) traffic back through previous posts over the last couple days to find out what all the tsuris was about.
I’ll just say this: I don’t like backbiting, sniping, or dismissiveness as part of an effort to tone-police a subject-matter expert who spends as much time as Adam does shoveling the sh t of humanity at its (our?) worst. Such attempts at tone policing don’t reflect well on the people who stoop to them, nor does it give me any incentive either to seek out or to respect their views in other threads on this site.
Sorry, Adam. I welcome your views across the board, even (especially?) when they sting a bit.
NotoriousJRT
@O. Felix Culpa: you have described the conundrum as I see it. Despair stalks me; what best to do to not just keep it at bay but take (even the most incremental) steps to eventually defeat it and its underlying causes?
Carlo Graziani
First of all, I’d like to say that I hope you change your mind, Adam. Your comments are separate from your posts, and enrich the discussion even when you are WRONGETY-WRONG-WRONG!!!! 🫥 (<– “straight face”)
With that out of the way, I’d like to issue a bit of advice to all that I would do well to receive and heed myself, sometimes: everyone here is in good faith. That is one of several nearly unique feature of the BJ corner of the Internet. It is possible to be in good faith and wrong, but presuming bad faith of Adam or of any commenter will pretty much automatically make one wrong.
This is a distinction with a difference. It is perfectly possible to severely critique what someone writes, or believes, without attacking someone’s motives or character. Sometimes it can be tempting to fly out rhetorically in a way that crosses that boundary. I’ve regretted it within 12 hours every time I’ve done so. It is, in any event, far more intellectually-continent, as well as persuasive to non-combatant readers, to stick to reasoned counters to what one regards as bad arguments, without impugning good faith. We argue to gain clarity and understanding, not to score points.
For what it’s worth, I often read Adam’s the-glass-is-fucking-dry takes, and reflect that even the parts that I agree with would benefit from greater nuance. On occasion, I’ve been sufficiently provoked to take issue with some statement or another. But I aspire to argue the takes themselves, not Adam’s motives for expressing them. And when I’ve not lived up to that standard, I’ve tried to catch myself, and apologize.
I do certainly presume good faith on part of everyone writing here. Even when they are WRONGETY-WRONG-WRONG!!! I would hope to have the same presumption extended to me, even when I’m, um, well, wrong.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Hear hear!
wjca
@Carlo Graziani: Amen
There’s no shortage, in the wider world, of those who are not only wrong, but malign in their approach. Even those here with whom I vehemently disagree (no shortage, sadly) are “merely” wrong, not ill intentioned.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Jesse
Thank you, Adam.
Chet Murthy
@Adam L Silverman: Adam, I appreciate your Ukraine updates: they’re pretty much my main source of information on what’s happening in Ukraine.
But even more than that, I appreciate the seminar you’ve been conducting for over eight years (I probably came to it late in 2016) on the parlous state of our democracy and body politic writ large. I’m a realist, and if somebody tells me I have cancer and need chemo, I’m not going to object to the diagnosis b/c the chemo will hurt, and will make my hair fall out. Your diagnoses are reality-based, and I appreciate them greatly. And the history that I’ve read backs you up, further evidence that you’re not Dr. Doom, but rather Dr. Realist.
I’m not giving up yet, but for sure, your education has made me very, very aware of the high risk of catastrophe at the national level. I can’t say I’ve made preparations, but for sure I have delayed/deferred making decisions that would tie me down to the US, for fear that come November I’ll have to flee. If for only that, your realism has been valuable education.
Chet Murthy
@Soprano2:
You go to the doctor; she tells you that you’ve got an advanced and aggressive cancer, and recommends extremely toxic and painful chemotherapy. It’ll make your hair fall out, and that’s for starters. Do you reject the *diagnosis* because the chemo is too painful to contemplate? Do you reject the chemo, and look for naturopathic treatments, b/c the chemo is too painful ?
Have you read any of the histories of the rise of the Nazis? Can I suggest you start with Allen’s _The Rise of the Nazis_ ? I’m sure there are many other good ones out there. Hope in the absence of any -evidence- is -faith-. It’s not grounded in reality.
Jay
@Chet Murthy:
Thank you. Cancer is a good analogy.
Chet Murthy
@Chet Murthy: Oops, that was William Sheridan Allen’s _The Nazi Seizure of Power_. Got the book title wrong.
O. Felix Culpa
@Chet Murthy: At the risk of speaking for Soprano2, she explicitly asked for strategies. She wasn’t arguing against a diagnosis, per se, but against saying “you have a terrible cancer” and then walking away without suggesting a treatment plan.
O. Felix Culpa
@Andrya: Sorry to have missed your response earlier. Agree that we need to pressure our electeds to do something about the Supreme Court. If we reelect Biden, retain the Senate, and regain the House–and doing that will require work and $$, as you suggest–then we should go on an all-out campaign to reform the court. Thankfully Biden and the Senate Dems have pushed through a record number of judicial appointments to the lower federal courts, and another term is needed to rectify the damage done during the Felon era.
Timothy Snyder is a wonderful resource and I second your recommendation of his series “On Tyranny.”
Chet Murthy
@O. Felix Culpa: There’s a trope in American culture, viz. “necessity is the mother of invention”. It presumes that all problems are solvable — all problems. I’m not going to speak to Florida’s particular set of problems: I’ll rely on Adam to have the kind of knowledge required to discuss that with authority. But when it comes to our country, I think it’s pretty clear: if TCFG is reinstalled, nothing short of violence is going to work. The idea that somehow you’re going to turn things back from Fascism with …. what? protests? lawsuits? really?
At least when it comes to the national level, Soprano2 is asking for members of the empty set.
Chris Johnson
Adam is not doing great at behaving materially differently from a propagandist. The only thing the Trump side absolutely needs in the event of another coup attempt is to make the case that in fact everybody does actually support and believe in Trump and the Republicans sorry facts don’t care about your feelings shut up that’s why.
If your takes aren’t materially different from Tim Pool’s, there’s a problem.
I’m not interested in giving Tim Pool, or Dave Rubin, or Caleb Maupin, room to express their opinions, and I’m a little frustrated that, comments being closed, I can’t say that on the thread that got doomered to death. Frustrated is a good word, I think. Cut it out.
Chet Murthy
@Chris Johnson:
that’s not what Adam said. Not at all.
Chris Johnson
In Florida?
I’ll stop. I’m angry, and I’ve spent months waiting to see if the guy stops doing what he does. If he does not come into threads he didn’t make telling people they should not try, because the only answer is civil war and violent revolution and without that we are hopium huffers… if he does not come into threads intended to motivate people to attempt hard things, and he says he’s going to stop doing that thing after having done it HARD on the Florida thread, well, good enough for me.
Chet Murthy
@Chris Johnson: Saying that in Florida Teh Fash [sic] have rigged the system so it’s almost impossible to turn them back, is not the same as saying that everybody loves the Fascists. Those are two completely different things.